@RichR said:
Call me crazy...but WHENEVER coins 3, 4, 5 & 6 are sold...won't that also reignite interest in acquiring coins 1 & 2?
You can't look at that in isolation. While a few new people might become interested that missed the excitement last month, that is set against the tens of thousands of coins that moved around in the interim, satisfying old demand.
It is possible that the secondary price on these in November is below the release price. Not a prediction but an observation. In order for these to even hold $85 value, there have to be 175,000 diamond handed collectors. If there are, any new interest drives price.
@RichR said:
Call me crazy...but WHENEVER coins 3, 4, 5 & 6 are sold...won't that also reignite interest in acquiring coins 1 & 2?
You can't look at that in isolation. While a few new people might become interested that missed the excitement last month, that is set against the tens of thousands of coins that moved around in the interim, satisfying old demand.
It is possible that the secondary price on these in November is below the release price. Not a prediction but an observation. In order for these to even hold $85 value, there have to be 175,000 diamond handed collectors. If there are, any new interest drives price.
So far, I'm not seeing the diamond hands.
The first two coins are essentially sold out.
I will state my opinion that these first two coins, but especially the “CC” privy (because of the allure of just those two letters-and many many CC dollar collectors) will hold at least a $150-$160 price for the long haul.
You won’t see $85 on these again....unless the cancelled orders come up one morning for resale.
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
So what happens today??? June 7th is the original "official" end of the pre-sale of the CC and O privy dollars. Is that date moot given the mint's latest communications on the 2021 dollars? Will they go to "Sold Out" or will more trickle out from cancellations? If there are any left, will they become available when the mint finally starts delivering these???
Inquiring minds want to know...
@RichR said:
Call me crazy...but WHENEVER coins 3, 4, 5 & 6 are sold...won't that also reignite interest in acquiring coins 1 & 2?
You can't look at that in isolation. While a few new people might become interested that missed the excitement last month, that is set against the tens of thousands of coins that moved around in the interim, satisfying old demand.
It is possible that the secondary price on these in November is below the release price. Not a prediction but an observation. In order for these to even hold $85 value, there have to be 175,000 diamond handed collectors. If there are, any new interest drives price.
So far, I'm not seeing the diamond hands.
The first two coins are essentially sold out.
I will state my opinion that these first two coins, but especially the “CC” privy (because of the allure of just those two letters-and many many CC dollar collectors) will hold at least a $150-$160 price for the long haul.
You won’t see $85 on these again....unless the cancelled orders come up one morning for resale.
Silver Eagle sales would argue against this. 175,000 on a silver eagle lucky to hold 100.
The coins also aren't sold out. The mint simply doesn't have any to sell. When you might have 100k of the 175k in the hands of people looking to move them, you can't know what the final demand is. That is why this price action happens with a lot of commems: initial release, price spike, gradual drop in price, usually ending below issue price.
If this issue holds value, there have to be 175,000 diamond hands out there. Hard to know if there are that many.
CC is the sexy mintmark Morgan aficionados like best so IMO that one will retain interest and value better than the others. I predict high $100s long term for it, low $100s for the others.
I'd also note that the "O" privy are frequently failing to cross $200 now with the "CC" barely over $200...and we're still 4 months from actual release.
I've stayed away from mentioning my position explicitly, but all of these estimates of future value require me to be more explicit. Sorry, Freddie, hope you are still ignoring me.
I have 60 of these coins on order (30 each type). I have not offered any of them for sale to either wholesalers or pre-sale on eBay. I can't be the only one. You can keep looking at alleged demand, but the demand needs to be weighed against supply. There is a LOT of supply sitting in reserve, possibly tens of thousands of coins. The restricted supply you see now is partly artificial.
In the end, you need 175,000 strong hands to want the coins. This one is a bit tricky because it is a "Morgan dollar". But 175,000 is a LOT for a standard commem. Even 100,000 for a commem would not hold value much less 200,000. So, you really need Morgan collectors to embrace this as part of the series AND want all 5 rather than just a single example coin. Based on my non-scientific poll on this forum, most people were rejecting them as part of the Morgan series. So you have 875,000 Morgan-type commemorative coins. It may take into 2022, but these will trade under $100 in my opinion, and likely under $85 by 2023. To be above that you either need 175,000 diamond hands who want the entire set (for $400 to $1000) or 875,000 who want a single coin, or some combination. That is a BIG ask.
Look at the Apollo coins. Space is a very collectible topic but the dollar coins (275,000 total of both types) are selling raw at $75 and $125 in 70. The 5 ouncers (100,000 max mintage) are only selling for $225 raw and $300 in 70. This is against a silver climate that has silver selling for $35 per ounce.
I wouldn't be shocked if these coins held the $150 level. However, I also wouldn't be at all surprised for them to drop below $100 in the next 18 months. 875,000 is a LOT of coins.
While I am not 100% sure but I believe Ebays internal system will go to alert when some of the buyers complain that the sellers have not shiped after 30+ expire. Are we close to that date? I believe its a automatic no no so sell items with out shipping within the 30+ days alloted. Regardless weather these were presales or not I think Ebays internal alarm starts after 30+ days. Once a purchaser files a complaint who do you think Ebay will side on?
Again I never sell anything with out having the item in hand excepts for once and Ebay ruled against me when the buyer complained. Ebay did not care that I had the pre buy in the description its spelled out in Ebays rules. 30 day limit once the sale is completed.
I hope not for all those who are patiently waiting. Time will tell. I ended up refunding their monies as I was instructed by Ebay. I am guessing in the next 10 to 15 days we will have crossed the 30+ threashold.
The Mint needs to have a HHL of 1 and mint to demand (over a specified limited period). People on this forum have in excess of 50 of the new Morgans, and I found someone on eBay who has 90 for sale. This is why the average collector wanting one is getting shut out - between bots and flippers hiring their goons to buy for them. It's a free world and the Mint can do what it wants - sell to the dealers and flippers. But, do NOT advertise that you are supporting the collector. I have been collecting coins for over 50 years and have been buying from the Mint for most of my collecting years. I buy one coin, not hundreds. I am no longer buying from the Mint. I will no longer expose myself to their website morass. I will find the most reasonable dealer and grudgingly buy from it, but I will no longer be buying the number of coins I have in the past. The Mint is killing this hobby, and it is no longer a hobby. It is big business. Glad I am old enough to remember when coin collecting was a fun hobby.
@MsMorrisine said:
I don't see them below $85, maybe not even below $100
these are $85 at issue and can be sat on. the BINs will be higher than $85. true auctions will be for the truly desparate
How are those Mayflower coins doing?
@JeffM said:
The Mint needs to have a HHL of 1 and mint to demand (over a specified limited period). People on this forum have in excess of 50 of the new Morgans, and I found someone on eBay who has 90 for sale. This is why the average collector wanting one is getting shut out - between bots and flippers hiring their goons to buy for them. It's a free world and the Mint can do what it wants - sell to the dealers and flippers. But, do NOT advertise that you are supporting the collector. I have been collecting coins for over 50 years and have been buying from the Mint for most of my collecting years. I buy one coin, not hundreds. I am no longer buying from the Mint. I will no longer expose myself to their website morass. I will find the most reasonable dealer and grudgingly buy from it, but I will no longer be buying the number of coins I have in the past. The Mint is killing this hobby, and it is no longer a hobby. It is big business. Glad I am old enough to remember when coin collecting was a fun hobby.
This ignores some of the way that supporting dealers and flippers support the hobby.
You go to an HHL of 1 and print to demand and there will be fewer collectors and higher prices.
@MsMorrisine said:
I don't see them below $85, maybe not even below $100
these are $85 at issue and can be sat on. the BINs will be higher than $85. true auctions will be for the truly desparate
How are those Mayflower coins doing?
@JeffM said:
The Mint needs to have a HHL of 1 and mint to demand (over a specified limited period). People on this forum have in excess of 50 of the new Morgans, and I found someone on eBay who has 90 for sale. This is why the average collector wanting one is getting shut out - between bots and flippers hiring their goons to buy for them. It's a free world and the Mint can do what it wants - sell to the dealers and flippers. But, do NOT advertise that you are supporting the collector. I have been collecting coins for over 50 years and have been buying from the Mint for most of my collecting years. I buy one coin, not hundreds. I am no longer buying from the Mint. I will no longer expose myself to their website morass. I will find the most reasonable dealer and grudgingly buy from it, but I will no longer be buying the number of coins I have in the past. The Mint is killing this hobby, and it is no longer a hobby. It is big business. Glad I am old enough to remember when coin collecting was a fun hobby.
This ignores some of the way that supporting dealers and flippers support the hobby.
You go to an HHL of 1 and print to demand and there will be fewer collectors and higher prices.
There's no perfect solution.
Yes, supporting dealers and flippers will really help the hobby. So they can buy up all the coins and rake in those huge profits? No, keep the HHL at one so you flippers will have to hire hundreds of your goons and grease your bots to buy your hundreds of coins. And, as stated, the Mint should mint to demand to affect your bloated sales, and everyone who wants one has a better chance of getting one. If the Mint does not serve the collector, they should simply be in business to supply the flippers and dealers. I know that will make you flippers drool with glee!
@MsMorrisine said:
I don't see them below $85, maybe not even below $100
these are $85 at issue and can be sat on. the BINs will be higher than $85. true auctions will be for the truly desparate
How are those Mayflower coins doing?
@JeffM said:
The Mint needs to have a HHL of 1 and mint to demand (over a specified limited period). People on this forum have in excess of 50 of the new Morgans, and I found someone on eBay who has 90 for sale. This is why the average collector wanting one is getting shut out - between bots and flippers hiring their goons to buy for them. It's a free world and the Mint can do what it wants - sell to the dealers and flippers. But, do NOT advertise that you are supporting the collector. I have been collecting coins for over 50 years and have been buying from the Mint for most of my collecting years. I buy one coin, not hundreds. I am no longer buying from the Mint. I will no longer expose myself to their website morass. I will find the most reasonable dealer and grudgingly buy from it, but I will no longer be buying the number of coins I have in the past. The Mint is killing this hobby, and it is no longer a hobby. It is big business. Glad I am old enough to remember when coin collecting was a fun hobby.
This ignores some of the way that supporting dealers and flippers support the hobby.
You go to an HHL of 1 and print to demand and there will be fewer collectors and higher prices.
There's no perfect solution.
Yes, supporting dealers and flippers will really help the hobby. So they can buy up all the coins and rake in those huge profits? No, keep the HHL at one so you flippers will have to hire hundreds of your goons and grease your bots to buy your hundreds of coins. And, as stated, the Mint should mint to demand to affect your bloated sales, and everyone who wants one has a better chance of getting one. If the Mint does not serve the collector, they should simply be in business to supply the flippers and dealers. I know that will make you flippers drool with glee!
You have a HHL of 1 and you will turn a $150.00 coin ($85.00 issue) into a $50.00 coin…
@MsMorrisine said:
I don't see the mint retroactively making the hhl 1, and I wouldn't ask them to do something retroactively
But they would be helping the economy! With a HHL of 10, the flippers will have to hire 50 goons to each buy 10 so the flippers can get their 500 coins to sell at huge profits. With a HHL of 1, they would have to hire 500 goons! Employment of goons would increase by 1,000%!!
@JeffM said:
But they would be helping the economy! With a HHL of 10, the flippers will have to hire 50 goons to each buy 10 so the flippers can get their 500 coins to sell at huge profits.
If there are huge profits to be had, the mint is obviously underpricing the coins. Maybe you should be complaining about that instead.
@MsMorrisine said:
I don't see them below $85, maybe not even below $100
these are $85 at issue and can be sat on. the BINs will be higher than $85. true auctions will be for the truly desparate
How are those Mayflower coins doing?
@JeffM said:
The Mint needs to have a HHL of 1 and mint to demand (over a specified limited period). People on this forum have in excess of 50 of the new Morgans, and I found someone on eBay who has 90 for sale. This is why the average collector wanting one is getting shut out - between bots and flippers hiring their goons to buy for them. It's a free world and the Mint can do what it wants - sell to the dealers and flippers. But, do NOT advertise that you are supporting the collector. I have been collecting coins for over 50 years and have been buying from the Mint for most of my collecting years. I buy one coin, not hundreds. I am no longer buying from the Mint. I will no longer expose myself to their website morass. I will find the most reasonable dealer and grudgingly buy from it, but I will no longer be buying the number of coins I have in the past. The Mint is killing this hobby, and it is no longer a hobby. It is big business. Glad I am old enough to remember when coin collecting was a fun hobby.
This ignores some of the way that supporting dealers and flippers support the hobby.
You go to an HHL of 1 and print to demand and there will be fewer collectors and higher prices.
There's no perfect solution.
Yes, supporting dealers and flippers will really help the hobby. So they can buy up all the coins and rake in those huge profits? No, keep the HHL at one so you flippers will have to hire hundreds of your goons and grease your bots to buy your hundreds of coins. And, as stated, the Mint should mint to demand to affect your bloated sales, and everyone who wants one has a better chance of getting one. If the Mint does not serve the collector, they should simply be in business to supply the flippers and dealers. I know that will make you flippers drool with glee!
Dealers do a lot of promotion for the hobby.
Go read some of the Mint threads on this forum where people stopped collecting mint products because their value always dropped.
You go to an HHL of one and no mintage limit, you will sell fewer coins and the Mint will raise the cost.
And, by the way, if you are minting with no limit, why do you need an HHL at all?
@JeffM said:
But they would be helping the economy! With a HHL of 10, the flippers will have to hire 50 goons to each buy 10 so the flippers can get their 500 coins to sell at huge profits.
If there are huge profits to be had, the mint is obviously underpricing the coins. Maybe you should be complaining about that instead.
So much hatred for his fellow man...is goon above or below "flipper"?
Obviously, the right price is $250. I'll think I'll go write the Mint and suggest that.
Jeff- although I get where you are coming from…I do and loathe the buying clubs etc, but your generalization would also apply to brick and mortar stores that need that inventory.
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@jmlanzaf said:
I'll think I'll go write the Mint and suggest that.
What people want is a limited mintage issue priced below actual market value that they are able to purchase from the mint without being inconvenienced.
@jmlanzaf said:
I'll think I'll go write the Mint and suggest that.
What people want is a limited mintage issue priced below actual market value that they are able to purchase from the mint without being inconvenienced.
You may suggest that also. Maybe free coins can go in the infrastructure bill.
I prefer the Mint raise the price. Seems like if you make a popular product, you should be rewarded.
The Mint could also save themselves the headache and just do 100% of their distribution through the ADs.
I get where Jeff is coming from but he is lumping all into one bucket. At least for me the line is the aholes that come on and flaunt how they got around the HHL (like basement boy🤣)
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@jmlanzaf said:
I've stayed away from mentioning my position explicitly, but all of these estimates of future value require me to be more explicit. Sorry, Freddie, hope you are still ignoring me.
I have 60 of these coins on order (30 each type). I have not offered any of them for sale to either wholesalers or pre-sale on eBay. I can't be the only one. You can keep looking at alleged demand, but the demand needs to be weighed against supply. There is a LOT of supply sitting in reserve, possibly tens of thousands of coins. The restricted supply you see now is partly artificial.
In the end, you need 175,000 strong hands to want the coins. This one is a bit tricky because it is a "Morgan dollar". But 175,000 is a LOT for a standard commem. Even 100,000 for a commem would not hold value much less 200,000. So, you really need Morgan collectors to embrace this as part of the series AND want all 5 rather than just a single example coin. Based on my non-scientific poll on this forum, most people were rejecting them as part of the Morgan series. So you have 875,000 Morgan-type commemorative coins. It may take into 2022, but these will trade under $100 in my opinion, and likely under $85 by 2023. To be above that you either need 175,000 diamond hands who want the entire set (for $400 to $1000) or 875,000 who want a single coin, or some combination. That is a BIG ask.
Look at the Apollo coins. Space is a very collectible topic but the dollar coins (275,000 total of both types) are selling raw at $75 and $125 in 70. The 5 ouncers (100,000 max mintage) are only selling for $225 raw and $300 in 70. This is against a silver climate that has silver selling for $35 per ounce.
I wouldn't be shocked if these coins held the $150 level. However, I also wouldn't be at all surprised for them to drop below $100 in the next 18 months. 875,000 is a LOT of coins.
Strong hands? Think 2001 Buffalo Dollar. 250k. Still sells over $100.
@jmlanzaf said:
I've stayed away from mentioning my position explicitly, but all of these estimates of future value require me to be more explicit. Sorry, Freddie, hope you are still ignoring me.
I have 60 of these coins on order (30 each type). I have not offered any of them for sale to either wholesalers or pre-sale on eBay. I can't be the only one. You can keep looking at alleged demand, but the demand needs to be weighed against supply. There is a LOT of supply sitting in reserve, possibly tens of thousands of coins. The restricted supply you see now is partly artificial.
In the end, you need 175,000 strong hands to want the coins. This one is a bit tricky because it is a "Morgan dollar". But 175,000 is a LOT for a standard commem. Even 100,000 for a commem would not hold value much less 200,000. So, you really need Morgan collectors to embrace this as part of the series AND want all 5 rather than just a single example coin. Based on my non-scientific poll on this forum, most people were rejecting them as part of the Morgan series. So you have 875,000 Morgan-type commemorative coins. It may take into 2022, but these will trade under $100 in my opinion, and likely under $85 by 2023. To be above that you either need 175,000 diamond hands who want the entire set (for $400 to $1000) or 875,000 who want a single coin, or some combination. That is a BIG ask.
Look at the Apollo coins. Space is a very collectible topic but the dollar coins (275,000 total of both types) are selling raw at $75 and $125 in 70. The 5 ouncers (100,000 max mintage) are only selling for $225 raw and $300 in 70. This is against a silver climate that has silver selling for $35 per ounce.
I wouldn't be shocked if these coins held the $150 level. However, I also wouldn't be at all surprised for them to drop below $100 in the next 18 months. 875,000 is a LOT of coins.
Strong hands? Think 2001 Buffalo Dollar. 250k. Still sells over $100.
@JeffM said:
The Mint needs to have a HHL of 1 and mint to demand (over a specified limited period). People on this forum have in excess of 50 of the new Morgans, and I found someone on eBay who has 90 for sale. This is why the average collector wanting one is getting shut out - between bots and flippers hiring their goons to buy for them. It's a free world and the Mint can do what it wants - sell to the dealers and flippers. But, do NOT advertise that you are supporting the collector. I have been collecting coins for over 50 years and have been buying from the Mint for most of my collecting years. I buy one coin, not hundreds. I am no longer buying from the Mint. I will no longer expose myself to their website morass. I will find the most reasonable dealer and grudgingly buy from it, but I will no longer be buying the number of coins I have in the past. The Mint is killing this hobby, and it is no longer a hobby. It is big business. Glad I am old enough to remember when coin collecting was a fun hobby.
Except that no one has these in hand yet, I've not heard of a single person having any difficulty in getting one or, really, as many as they want. The complaint is that people can't buy these at issue price. This happens with many collectibles. Not just, or even mostly, from the government.
@jmlanzaf said:
I've stayed away from mentioning my position explicitly, but all of these estimates of future value require me to be more explicit. Sorry, Freddie, hope you are still ignoring me.
I have 60 of these coins on order (30 each type). I have not offered any of them for sale to either wholesalers or pre-sale on eBay. I can't be the only one. You can keep looking at alleged demand, but the demand needs to be weighed against supply. There is a LOT of supply sitting in reserve, possibly tens of thousands of coins. The restricted supply you see now is partly artificial.
In the end, you need 175,000 strong hands to want the coins. This one is a bit tricky because it is a "Morgan dollar". But 175,000 is a LOT for a standard commem. Even 100,000 for a commem would not hold value much less 200,000. So, you really need Morgan collectors to embrace this as part of the series AND want all 5 rather than just a single example coin. Based on my non-scientific poll on this forum, most people were rejecting them as part of the Morgan series. So you have 875,000 Morgan-type commemorative coins. It may take into 2022, but these will trade under $100 in my opinion, and likely under $85 by 2023. To be above that you either need 175,000 diamond hands who want the entire set (for $400 to $1000) or 875,000 who want a single coin, or some combination. That is a BIG ask.
Look at the Apollo coins. Space is a very collectible topic but the dollar coins (275,000 total of both types) are selling raw at $75 and $125 in 70. The 5 ouncers (100,000 max mintage) are only selling for $225 raw and $300 in 70. This is against a silver climate that has silver selling for $35 per ounce.
I wouldn't be shocked if these coins held the $150 level. However, I also wouldn't be at all surprised for them to drop below $100 in the next 18 months. 875,000 is a LOT of coins.
Disclaimer: I have no interest in collecting Morgans by date, so this comes from a slightly removed perspective.
I'm not sure Morgan collectors even consider the 1921s a part of the series. Whenever I see bulk silver dollars offered to buy or sell, they are always broken into three groups: Pre-1921 Morgan, 1921 Morgan, and Peace. I assume the middle category includes all three mints. Id think many people consider the 1921 a one year type.
I don't know. Do SBA collectors consider the 1999s part of the series?
@jmlanzaf said:
I've stayed away from mentioning my position explicitly, but all of these estimates of future value require me to be more explicit. Sorry, Freddie, hope you are still ignoring me.
I have 60 of these coins on order (30 each type). I have not offered any of them for sale to either wholesalers or pre-sale on eBay. I can't be the only one. You can keep looking at alleged demand, but the demand needs to be weighed against supply. There is a LOT of supply sitting in reserve, possibly tens of thousands of coins. The restricted supply you see now is partly artificial.
In the end, you need 175,000 strong hands to want the coins. This one is a bit tricky because it is a "Morgan dollar". But 175,000 is a LOT for a standard commem. Even 100,000 for a commem would not hold value much less 200,000. So, you really need Morgan collectors to embrace this as part of the series AND want all 5 rather than just a single example coin. Based on my non-scientific poll on this forum, most people were rejecting them as part of the Morgan series. So you have 875,000 Morgan-type commemorative coins. It may take into 2022, but these will trade under $100 in my opinion, and likely under $85 by 2023. To be above that you either need 175,000 diamond hands who want the entire set (for $400 to $1000) or 875,000 who want a single coin, or some combination. That is a BIG ask.
Look at the Apollo coins. Space is a very collectible topic but the dollar coins (275,000 total of both types) are selling raw at $75 and $125 in 70. The 5 ouncers (100,000 max mintage) are only selling for $225 raw and $300 in 70. This is against a silver climate that has silver selling for $35 per ounce.
I wouldn't be shocked if these coins held the $150 level. However, I also wouldn't be at all surprised for them to drop below $100 in the next 18 months. 875,000 is a LOT of coins.
Strong hands? Think 2001 Buffalo Dollar. 250k. Still sells over $100.
A very rare exception for the US Mint.
But a very comparable example. A very popular design released as a one year release; commemorating 100 year anniversary. Huge collector bases.
@jmlanzaf said:
I've stayed away from mentioning my position explicitly, but all of these estimates of future value require me to be more explicit. Sorry, Freddie, hope you are still ignoring me.
I have 60 of these coins on order (30 each type). I have not offered any of them for sale to either wholesalers or pre-sale on eBay. I can't be the only one. You can keep looking at alleged demand, but the demand needs to be weighed against supply. There is a LOT of supply sitting in reserve, possibly tens of thousands of coins. The restricted supply you see now is partly artificial.
In the end, you need 175,000 strong hands to want the coins. This one is a bit tricky because it is a "Morgan dollar". But 175,000 is a LOT for a standard commem. Even 100,000 for a commem would not hold value much less 200,000. So, you really need Morgan collectors to embrace this as part of the series AND want all 5 rather than just a single example coin. Based on my non-scientific poll on this forum, most people were rejecting them as part of the Morgan series. So you have 875,000 Morgan-type commemorative coins. It may take into 2022, but these will trade under $100 in my opinion, and likely under $85 by 2023. To be above that you either need 175,000 diamond hands who want the entire set (for $400 to $1000) or 875,000 who want a single coin, or some combination. That is a BIG ask.
Look at the Apollo coins. Space is a very collectible topic but the dollar coins (275,000 total of both types) are selling raw at $75 and $125 in 70. The 5 ouncers (100,000 max mintage) are only selling for $225 raw and $300 in 70. This is against a silver climate that has silver selling for $35 per ounce.
I wouldn't be shocked if these coins held the $150 level. However, I also wouldn't be at all surprised for them to drop below $100 in the next 18 months. 875,000 is a LOT of coins.
Strong hands? Think 2001 Buffalo Dollar. 250k. Still sells over $100.
A very rare exception for the US Mint.
But a very comparable example. A very popular design released as a one year release; commemorating 100 year anniversary. Huge collector bases.
Comments
You're crazy.
You can't look at that in isolation. While a few new people might become interested that missed the excitement last month, that is set against the tens of thousands of coins that moved around in the interim, satisfying old demand.
It is possible that the secondary price on these in November is below the release price. Not a prediction but an observation. In order for these to even hold $85 value, there have to be 175,000 diamond handed collectors. If there are, any new interest drives price.
So far, I'm not seeing the diamond hands.
Dunno
If prices are up and availability low on 1&2 then that would ignite interest in the new ones.
How many will be like me?
If come November and I don’t have all six, I’m going to unload what I did get. (I’ll try to find candidates here at cost first.)
Or just decide that one for type is enough.
@RichR said:
Call me crazy...
You're crazy.
"AND DON'T CALL ME SHIRLEY!"
Surely.
The first two coins are essentially sold out.
I will state my opinion that these first two coins, but especially the “CC” privy (because of the allure of just those two letters-and many many CC dollar collectors) will hold at least a $150-$160 price for the long haul.
You won’t see $85 on these again....unless the cancelled orders come up one morning for resale.
Call me a taxi.
So what happens today??? June 7th is the original "official" end of the pre-sale of the CC and O privy dollars. Is that date moot given the mint's latest communications on the 2021 dollars? Will they go to "Sold Out" or will more trickle out from cancellations? If there are any left, will they become available when the mint finally starts delivering these???
Inquiring minds want to know...
mbogoman
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/classic-issues-colonials-through-1964/zambezi-collection-trade-dollars/7345Asesabi Lutho
Silver Eagle sales would argue against this. 175,000 on a silver eagle lucky to hold 100.
The coins also aren't sold out. The mint simply doesn't have any to sell. When you might have 100k of the 175k in the hands of people looking to move them, you can't know what the final demand is. That is why this price action happens with a lot of commems: initial release, price spike, gradual drop in price, usually ending below issue price.
If this issue holds value, there have to be 175,000 diamond hands out there. Hard to know if there are that many.
CC is the sexy mintmark Morgan aficionados like best so IMO that one will retain interest and value better than the others. I predict high $100s long term for it, low $100s for the others.
RIP Mom- 1932-2012
13 auctions marked "New Listing"
about 430 listings
I'd also note that the "O" privy are frequently failing to cross $200 now with the "CC" barely over $200...and we're still 4 months from actual release.
I've stayed away from mentioning my position explicitly, but all of these estimates of future value require me to be more explicit. Sorry, Freddie, hope you are still ignoring me.
I have 60 of these coins on order (30 each type). I have not offered any of them for sale to either wholesalers or pre-sale on eBay. I can't be the only one. You can keep looking at alleged demand, but the demand needs to be weighed against supply. There is a LOT of supply sitting in reserve, possibly tens of thousands of coins. The restricted supply you see now is partly artificial.
In the end, you need 175,000 strong hands to want the coins. This one is a bit tricky because it is a "Morgan dollar". But 175,000 is a LOT for a standard commem. Even 100,000 for a commem would not hold value much less 200,000. So, you really need Morgan collectors to embrace this as part of the series AND want all 5 rather than just a single example coin. Based on my non-scientific poll on this forum, most people were rejecting them as part of the Morgan series. So you have 875,000 Morgan-type commemorative coins. It may take into 2022, but these will trade under $100 in my opinion, and likely under $85 by 2023. To be above that you either need 175,000 diamond hands who want the entire set (for $400 to $1000) or 875,000 who want a single coin, or some combination. That is a BIG ask.
Look at the Apollo coins. Space is a very collectible topic but the dollar coins (275,000 total of both types) are selling raw at $75 and $125 in 70. The 5 ouncers (100,000 max mintage) are only selling for $225 raw and $300 in 70. This is against a silver climate that has silver selling for $35 per ounce.
I wouldn't be shocked if these coins held the $150 level. However, I also wouldn't be at all surprised for them to drop below $100 in the next 18 months. 875,000 is a LOT of coins.
While I am not 100% sure but I believe Ebays internal system will go to alert when some of the buyers complain that the sellers have not shiped after 30+ expire. Are we close to that date? I believe its a automatic no no so sell items with out shipping within the 30+ days alloted. Regardless weather these were presales or not I think Ebays internal alarm starts after 30+ days. Once a purchaser files a complaint who do you think Ebay will side on?
Again I never sell anything with out having the item in hand excepts for once and Ebay ruled against me when the buyer complained. Ebay did not care that I had the pre buy in the description its spelled out in Ebays rules. 30 day limit once the sale is completed.
I hope not for all those who are patiently waiting. Time will tell. I ended up refunding their monies as I was instructed by Ebay. I am guessing in the next 10 to 15 days we will have crossed the 30+ threashold.
The Mint needs to have a HHL of 1 and mint to demand (over a specified limited period). People on this forum have in excess of 50 of the new Morgans, and I found someone on eBay who has 90 for sale. This is why the average collector wanting one is getting shut out - between bots and flippers hiring their goons to buy for them. It's a free world and the Mint can do what it wants - sell to the dealers and flippers. But, do NOT advertise that you are supporting the collector. I have been collecting coins for over 50 years and have been buying from the Mint for most of my collecting years. I buy one coin, not hundreds. I am no longer buying from the Mint. I will no longer expose myself to their website morass. I will find the most reasonable dealer and grudgingly buy from it, but I will no longer be buying the number of coins I have in the past. The Mint is killing this hobby, and it is no longer a hobby. It is big business. Glad I am old enough to remember when coin collecting was a fun hobby.
I don't see them below $85, maybe not even below $100
these are $85 at issue and can be sat on. the BINs will be higher than $85. true auctions will be for the truly desparate
How are those Mayflower coins doing?
This ignores some of the way that supporting dealers and flippers support the hobby.
You go to an HHL of 1 and print to demand and there will be fewer collectors and higher prices.
There's no perfect solution.
much more money ties up in them. one could sit on $85 easier.
Yes, supporting dealers and flippers will really help the hobby. So they can buy up all the coins and rake in those huge profits? No, keep the HHL at one so you flippers will have to hire hundreds of your goons and grease your bots to buy your hundreds of coins. And, as stated, the Mint should mint to demand to affect your bloated sales, and everyone who wants one has a better chance of getting one. If the Mint does not serve the collector, they should simply be in business to supply the flippers and dealers. I know that will make you flippers drool with glee!
You have a HHL of 1 and you will turn a $150.00 coin ($85.00 issue) into a $50.00 coin…
You have a HHL of 1 and you will see Thousands of cancellations of the CC and O…
The mint serves the American people. It's on their website.
They don't, however, appear to make any distinction between "collector" and "flipper".
I don't see the mint retroactively making the hhl 1, and I wouldn't ask them to do something retroactively
But they would be helping the economy! With a HHL of 10, the flippers will have to hire 50 goons to each buy 10 so the flippers can get their 500 coins to sell at huge profits. With a HHL of 1, they would have to hire 500 goons! Employment of goons would increase by 1,000%!!
If there are huge profits to be had, the mint is obviously underpricing the coins. Maybe you should be complaining about that instead.
Dealers do a lot of promotion for the hobby.
Go read some of the Mint threads on this forum where people stopped collecting mint products because their value always dropped.
You go to an HHL of one and no mintage limit, you will sell fewer coins and the Mint will raise the cost.
And, by the way, if you are minting with no limit, why do you need an HHL at all?
So much hatred for his fellow man...is goon above or below "flipper"?
Obviously, the right price is $250. I'll think I'll go write the Mint and suggest that.
Jeff- although I get where you are coming from…I do and loathe the buying clubs etc, but your generalization would also apply to brick and mortar stores that need that inventory.
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if they have a pre-order window with a mint to demand, then I would not expect a need for a HHL
What people want is a limited mintage issue priced below actual market value that they are able to purchase from the mint without being inconvenienced.
You may suggest that also. Maybe free coins can go in the infrastructure bill.
I prefer the Mint raise the price. Seems like if you make a popular product, you should be rewarded.
The Mint could also save themselves the headache and just do 100% of their distribution through the ADs.
Would that chase away the flippers and goons? Because that seems to be an important feature to some people.
I wouldn't have even bought one to collect if they released them at $250. Of course, if they limited them to 50,000 coins I would have paid 500
Many goons wait until the HHL is removed and buy what they want….🤷♂️
That's how I got all those ASEs
Who are you calling a goon?
My momma raised no goon!
I get where Jeff is coming from but he is lumping all into one bucket. At least for me the line is the aholes that come on and flaunt how they got around the HHL (like basement boy🤣)
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God bless them every one.
So, who made some money on crypto or stocks we can pile on? Those jerks!
Does WSB have “protection?”
I made 95 cents on dogecoin today.
PM me when that’s per coin!
I never have more than a couple hundred coins, so even 95 cents per coin isn't going to matter.
Strong hands? Think 2001 Buffalo Dollar. 250k. Still sells over $100.
A very rare exception for the US Mint.
Except that no one has these in hand yet, I've not heard of a single person having any difficulty in getting one or, really, as many as they want. The complaint is that people can't buy these at issue price. This happens with many collectibles. Not just, or even mostly, from the government.
Disclaimer: I have no interest in collecting Morgans by date, so this comes from a slightly removed perspective.
I'm not sure Morgan collectors even consider the 1921s a part of the series. Whenever I see bulk silver dollars offered to buy or sell, they are always broken into three groups: Pre-1921 Morgan, 1921 Morgan, and Peace. I assume the middle category includes all three mints. Id think many people consider the 1921 a one year type.
I don't know. Do SBA collectors consider the 1999s part of the series?
But a very comparable example. A very popular design released as a one year release; commemorating 100 year anniversary. Huge collector bases.
875,000