It is such a small investment - in the grand scheme of things - comparatively from the Mint.
Look at how much the gold and palladium issues are going to cost for you be able to play the game. Granted, different material, but to generate interest in a $85 per unit is much easier for me to feign participation.
When they get here, they get here.
The Mint, she do take a bite, don’t she?!
@jmlanzaf said:
That's what happens when they eff up the distribution.
Everybody said they needed to do something. They did.
no one said they will stop shipping in october nor will retroactively decrease the limit from 10
no one knows that distribution has changed.
The distribution has changed as they delayed the second 4 and, therefore, introduced uncertainty. If you are trying to put together sets, you no longer have confidence that the rules are the same for the rest of the series. Business hates uncertainty.
The ebay price has also been dropping which adds to the uncertainty of price at delivery. I'd be surprised if the $300 presale buyers aren't starting to cancel with the price closer to $200.
@Raufus said:
It seems that none of the dealers are buying these. Does not bode well for much appreciation.
The dealers are supposed to have them. On some of their websites, they ask you to sign up for notice when they go on sale. That's what I'm waiting for. I contacted one of the dealers and was told that they could not give me a date but hinted that it would be closer to the Mint's distribution in October. My guess is that they will offer these for sale in August or September. These are too hot for them to pass up. If, in actuality, they do not sell these, the prices on eBay would skyrocket.
From my point of view, I was not excited about these. I did not try to order them on sale day and I did not try the next several mornings. At a mintage of 175,000 each I just don't see these being rare or worth a lot over issue. It looks like I may have been wrong in my thinking. Time will tell... but because of the long delay in release that time will be a long time down the road. It will be interesting to see how this one turns out in the long run. Hindsight, I should have picked up a couple examples for the widget box. I will say that I am not a fan of this pre-order idea and then wait several months before shipment.
I don’t believe that an$85 item isn’t going to end up being a hot commodity...it’s just not that big a $$$ commitment in the overall scheme of things. Even the little guys can attempt a flip.
@RichR said:
I don’t believe that an$85 item isn’t going to end up being a hot commodity...it’s just not that big a $$$ commitment in the overall scheme of things. Even the little guys can attempt a flip.
You can attempt a flip, but it only works if someone wants to pay more than $85 which is pretty expensive for a modern commem.
I refer you to the uber rare 2017-S Enhanced uncirculated coin set which had a less than $30 initial price tag and has one of the rarest Lincoln cents and Kennedy halves (205,000 each) and yet was totally unflippable when the Mint messed up the distribution of the sets.
Have you tried to flip any Mayflower coins lately?
@jessewvu said:
The label game will be huge on these. I wouldn’t be surprised if a dealer finds some gold dust to sprinkle in a slab to get a fancier label.
I’m guessing no fewer than 20 different labels when it’s all said and done.
Only 20? There must be 20 different signature labels we could create!
Not sure I’m understanding the sudden “Debbie Downer” reaction by some re the future appreciation of these? Especially considering that they sold out in 20 minutes!
Although I’m usually one of the first to call B.S. on Mint nonsense...it’s not like a potential October delivery of the first 2 coins wasn’t always a known issue.
And as for the temporary hold on the remaining coins...I’m still not thinking that any last minute Mint tweaks are going to prevent the usual suspects from getting them in quantity....as usual. And again, nobody should have planned/expected to have had these in hand until the fall (but in reality, we’ll likely have them much sooner).
@RichR said:
Not sure I’m understanding the sudden “Debbie Downer” reaction by some re the future appreciation of these? Especially considering that they sold out in 20 minutes!
Although I’m usually one of the first to call B.S. on Mint nonsense...it’s not like a potential October delivery of the first 2 coins wasn’t always a known issue.
And as for the temporary hold on the remaining coins...I’m still not thinking that any last minute Mint tweaks are going to prevent the usual suspects from getting them in quantity....as usual. And again, nobody should have planned/expected to have had these in hand until the fall (but in reality, we’ll likely have them much sooner).
Don't confuse short term hype with long term value.
@RichR said:
Not sure I’m understanding the sudden “Debbie Downer” reaction by some re the future appreciation of these? Especially considering that they sold out in 20 minutes!
Although I’m usually one of the first to call B.S. on Mint nonsense...it’s not like a potential October delivery of the first 2 coins wasn’t always a known issue.
And as for the temporary hold on the remaining coins...I’m still not thinking that any last minute Mint tweaks are going to prevent the usual suspects from getting them in quantity....as usual. And again, nobody should have planned/expected to have had these in hand until the fall (but in reality, we’ll likely have them much sooner).
There's some on here that beat the same drum over and over about declining value of coins after initial offering. They may be right and they may be wrong, but one thing is for sure, they like to pronounce their verdicts over and over.
If you like the coins, pick some up.
That’s it, if you like the coin pay what ever you want it’s your money. There is a lot to look at here what will kill the price will be the long shipping date, but I’ll keep buying after they start shipping out and that’s all I’m saying about that. There are to many plus’s for this one for me to worry about it. Just be patient with this one.
@JeffM said:
Relatively speaking, why is the CC so scarce on eBay when the same number of O and CC were available?
It's not supply, it's demand.
@Type2 said:
That’s it, if you like the coin pay what ever you want it’s your money. There is a lot to look at here what will kill the price will be the long shipping date, but I’ll keep buying after they start shipping out and that’s all I’m saying about that. There are to many plus’s for this one for me to worry about it. Just be patient with this one.
I'm not sure it is anything but realistic to point out that 95+% of Mint products are long term losers... and that's BEFORE this year's significant price increases.
This is not to argue against collecting them. If it brings you pleasure buy it. Most hobby purchases are long term losers. But you should at least recognize the likelihood that a one off "commemorative" with a mintage of 850,000 is unlikely to be one of the rare winners. Even 200k on the Peace is probably too many of these aren't embraced as part of the original series. Commems over 100,000 have a horrible track record even with a $35 issue price.
I don’t know why this thread (and many others) turn into a flippers thread with ROI and investment coinage discussions.
It’s just a series of coins, highly anticipated and based on initial pre-sale, highly accepted.
I don’t care if people flip.
Many of us just like to collect.
If they increase in value over time good, if they don’t I don’t care. I buy coins I like.
Those coin that I don’t care for anymore I move on from and sell.
I accept the fact that most will not net a profit.
Perhaps a new thread of flipping coins should be started and debated.
@Danno44 said:
I don’t know why this thread (and many others) turn into a flippers thread with ROI and investment coinage discussions.
It’s just a series of coins, highly anticipated and based on initial pre-sale, highly accepted.
I don’t care if people flip.
Many of us just like to collect.
If they increase in value over time good, if they don’t I don’t care. I buy coins I like.
Those coin that I don’t care for anymore I move on from and sell.
I accept the fact that most will not net a profit.
Perhaps a new thread of flipping coins should be started and debated.
Well said, Danno. Some are fixated with flipping. It gets old.
@Danno44 said:
I don’t know why this thread (and many others) turn into a flippers thread with ROI and investment coinage discussions.
It’s just a series of coins, highly anticipated and based on initial pre-sale, highly accepted.
I don’t care if people flip.
Many of us just like to collect.
If they increase in value over time good, if they don’t I don’t care. I buy coins I like.
Those coin that I don’t care for anymore I move on from and sell.
I accept the fact that most will not net a profit.
Perhaps a new thread of flipping coins should be started and debated.
I started one. They told me to stick to the main thread.
The reason these always turn into flipping threads is two-fold:
1. People yell about flippers ruining the release
2. There are a lot of flippers out there
@Danno44 said:
I don’t know why this thread (and many others) turn into a flippers thread with ROI and investment coinage discussions.
It’s just a series of coins, highly anticipated and based on initial pre-sale, highly accepted.
I don’t care if people flip.
Many of us just like to collect.
If they increase in value over time good, if they don’t I don’t care. I buy coins I like.
Those coin that I don’t care for anymore I move on from and sell.
I accept the fact that most will not net a profit.
Perhaps a new thread of flipping coins should be started and debated.
Well said, Danno. Some are fixated with flipping. It gets old.
Are you referring to the flippers or the people that are yelling about the flippers?
@Danno44 said:
I don’t know why this thread (and many others) turn into a flippers thread with ROI and investment coinage discussions.
It’s just a series of coins, highly anticipated and based on initial pre-sale, highly accepted.
I don’t care if people flip.
Many of us just like to collect.
If they increase in value over time good, if they don’t I don’t care. I buy coins I like.
Those coin that I don’t care for anymore I move on from and sell.
I accept the fact that most will not net a profit.
Perhaps a new thread of flipping coins should be started and debated.
Well said, Danno. Some are fixated with flipping. It gets old.
Are you referring to the flippers or the people that are yelling about the flippers?
@Danno44 said:
I don’t know why this thread (and many others) turn into a flippers thread with ROI and investment coinage discussions.
It’s just a series of coins, highly anticipated and based on initial pre-sale, highly accepted.
I don’t care if people flip.
Many of us just like to collect.
If they increase in value over time good, if they don’t I don’t care. I buy coins I like.
Those coin that I don’t care for anymore I move on from and sell.
I accept the fact that most will not net a profit.
Perhaps a new thread of flipping coins should be started and debated.
Well said, Danno. Some are fixated with flipping. It gets old.
Are you referring to the flippers or the people that are yelling about the flippers?
@Danno44 said:
I don’t know why this thread (and many others) turn into a flippers thread with ROI and investment coinage discussions.
It’s just a series of coins, highly anticipated and based on initial pre-sale, highly accepted.
I don’t care if people flip.
Many of us just like to collect.
If they increase in value over time good, if they don’t I don’t care. I buy coins I like.
Those coin that I don’t care for anymore I move on from and sell.
I accept the fact that most will not net a profit.
Perhaps a new thread of flipping coins should be started and debated.
Well said, Danno. Some are fixated with flipping. It gets old.
Are you referring to the flippers or the people that are yelling about the flippers?
The dealers are not saying when or even IF they will have the Morgan and Peace dollars. I know that some already have their allotments because of the ABPP and others have their allotments through Mint purchases on the day of release as well as purchases from others who ordered the coins. If the dealers remain mum on this, I guess I will have to buy through eBay (which I really do not want to do). It's a crapshoot: Do I buy now or wait and risk the price increasing?
@JeffM said:
The dealers are not saying when or even IF they will have the Morgan and Peace dollars. I know that some already have their allotments because of the ABPP and others have their allotments through Mint purchases on the day of release as well as purchases from others who ordered the coins. If the dealers remain mum on this, I guess I will have to buy through eBay (which I really do not want to do). It's a crapshoot: Do I buy now or wait and risk the price increasing?
Despite the fact that my answer borders on a "flipping" discussion, I would wait. There is little likelihood that the price a year or two from now will be higher than during this period of desperate acquisition.
95+% of all Mint issues peak in price within 6 months of release and then settle down. I think this is especially true at the 175,000 mintage level. ASE's are one of the most widely collected of all U.S. series and any ASE with 100,000+ mintage is $100 coin or less. It would be very surprising if these "tribute coins" weren't in the $100 to $150 range in a year or two.
@Danno44 said:
I don’t know why this thread (and many others) turn into a flippers thread with ROI and investment coinage discussions.
It’s just a series of coins, highly anticipated and based on initial pre-sale, highly accepted.
I don’t care if people flip.
Many of us just like to collect.
If they increase in value over time good, if they don’t I don’t care. I buy coins I like.
Those coin that I don’t care for anymore I move on from and sell.
I accept the fact that most will not net a profit.
Perhaps a new thread of flipping coins should be started and debated.
Well said, Danno. Some are fixated with flipping. It gets old.
Are you referring to the flippers or the people that are yelling about the flippers?
I’m referring to you.
I LOVE this! Great job and thank you for speaking up! Thank you for making me smile!😎🥇
@Danno44 said:
I don’t know why this thread (and many others) turn into a flippers thread with ROI and investment coinage discussions.
It’s just a series of coins, highly anticipated and based on initial pre-sale, highly accepted.
I don’t care if people flip.
Many of us just like to collect.
If they increase in value over time good, if they don’t I don’t care. I buy coins I like.
Those coin that I don’t care for anymore I move on from and sell.
I accept the fact that most will not net a profit.
Perhaps a new thread of flipping coins should be started and debated.
Well said, Danno. Some are fixated with flipping. It gets old.
Are you referring to the flippers or the people that are yelling about the flippers?
I’m referring to you.
I LOVE this! Great job and thank you for speaking up! Thank you for making me smile!😎🥇
Not an easy job the Mint has.
They are the major supplier of our longest threads on this forum that are the most visited, most talked about, most responded to and most complained about.
I appreciate them continuing to try to clarify the situation and I’m glad I was able to pre-order a few, as it is.
@Raufus said:
I wonder what web traffic management tools the letter refers to. I still have nightmares about the ones used during the V75 Eagle release.
Well, OBVIOUSLY, the billing and shipping addresses were the same. GOSH!!!
Actually, here's a serious question: years ago the Mint would only ship to the billing address. Is this still the case? For obvious reasons, I'd prefer my Mint packages to be delivered to my PO box, not my house. My credit card's billing address is my house. But my Morgans are going to my house. (btw, I live at 123 Main St. It's the third house from the corner, with the white picket fence, and I am never home between 8am and 7pm. And I don't have any kind of cameras on my front porch or mailbox)
@Danno44 said:
I don’t know why this thread (and many others) turn into a flippers thread with ROI and investment coinage discussions.
It’s just a series of coins, highly anticipated and based on initial pre-sale, highly accepted.
I don’t care if people flip.
Many of us just like to collect.
If they increase in value over time good, if they don’t I don’t care. I buy coins I like.
Those coin that I don’t care for anymore I move on from and sell.
I accept the fact that most will not net a profit.
Perhaps a new thread of flipping coins should be started and debated.
Well said, Danno. Some are fixated with flipping. It gets old.
Puleeeeze. Coin collecting is DYING.
(have you seen the threads where CU members post there photos? it looks like a casting call for Cocoon)
These releases and the resulting feeding frenzy create BUZZ , BRINGS IN NEW BLOOD and MUCH NEEDED DEMAND.
Everyone is talking about these releases so I am not sure why anyone would be complaining. I have zero interest in making sure you are guaranteed a pocket piece to show off to a largely uninterested crowd at your next social event.
You go ahead wait for that 12 yr old to show some interest in those old coins, meanwhile flipping pulls in a younger crowd with disposable cash who may very well end up staying.
Comments
the number of open auctions on ebay recently fell from over 700 to just under 600 @ 580
the "O" have seen falling prices to just over $200 while the CC have been steady around 260-270.
should the number of auctions fall without much intermediate fall in prices, we could see prices actually climb as open auctions run out.
then there is the unknown of who will wait to sell until they start shipping.
it's going to be oct or nov when we find out if these hold value.
one thing I can say is stop selling in lots. individual is the way right now.
Time will tell..
It is such a small investment - in the grand scheme of things - comparatively from the Mint.
Look at how much the gold and palladium issues are going to cost for you be able to play the game. Granted, different material, but to generate interest in a $85 per unit is much easier for me to feign participation.
When they get here, they get here.
The Mint, she do take a bite, don’t she?!
The distribution has changed as they delayed the second 4 and, therefore, introduced uncertainty. If you are trying to put together sets, you no longer have confidence that the rules are the same for the rest of the series. Business hates uncertainty.
The ebay price has also been dropping which adds to the uncertainty of price at delivery. I'd be surprised if the $300 presale buyers aren't starting to cancel with the price closer to $200.
The dealers are supposed to have them. On some of their websites, they ask you to sign up for notice when they go on sale. That's what I'm waiting for. I contacted one of the dealers and was told that they could not give me a date but hinted that it would be closer to the Mint's distribution in October. My guess is that they will offer these for sale in August or September. These are too hot for them to pass up. If, in actuality, they do not sell these, the prices on eBay would skyrocket.
Relatively speaking, why is the CC so scarce on eBay when the same number of O and CC were available?
It's not supply, it's demand.
For all the non-collectors - Anything having to do with Carson City has always held a special place in collector's hearts.
True, these don't have any more to do with Carson City than the two letters, but they are worthy of special treatment and great value because of them.
From my point of view, I was not excited about these. I did not try to order them on sale day and I did not try the next several mornings. At a mintage of 175,000 each I just don't see these being rare or worth a lot over issue. It looks like I may have been wrong in my thinking. Time will tell... but because of the long delay in release that time will be a long time down the road. It will be interesting to see how this one turns out in the long run. Hindsight, I should have picked up a couple examples for the widget box. I will say that I am not a fan of this pre-order idea and then wait several months before shipment.
I see roughly equal number of "2021 morgan O" and "2021 morgan CC" auctions. if tilted, slightly to the "O" side
The label game will be huge on these. I wouldn’t be surprised if a dealer finds some gold dust to sprinkle in a slab to get a fancier label.
I’m guessing no fewer than 20 different labels when it’s all said and done.
I don’t believe that an$85 item isn’t going to end up being a hot commodity...it’s just not that big a $$$ commitment in the overall scheme of things. Even the little guys can attempt a flip.
You can attempt a flip, but it only works if someone wants to pay more than $85 which is pretty expensive for a modern commem.
I refer you to the uber rare 2017-S Enhanced uncirculated coin set which had a less than $30 initial price tag and has one of the rarest Lincoln cents and Kennedy halves (205,000 each) and yet was totally unflippable when the Mint messed up the distribution of the sets.
Have you tried to flip any Mayflower coins lately?
Only 20? There must be 20 different signature labels we could create!
Not sure I’m understanding the sudden “Debbie Downer” reaction by some re the future appreciation of these? Especially considering that they sold out in 20 minutes!
Although I’m usually one of the first to call B.S. on Mint nonsense...it’s not like a potential October delivery of the first 2 coins wasn’t always a known issue.
And as for the temporary hold on the remaining coins...I’m still not thinking that any last minute Mint tweaks are going to prevent the usual suspects from getting them in quantity....as usual. And again, nobody should have planned/expected to have had these in hand until the fall (but in reality, we’ll likely have them much sooner).
Don't confuse short term hype with long term value.
The 2017-S set also sold out in 15 minutes.
There's some on here that beat the same drum over and over about declining value of coins after initial offering. They may be right and they may be wrong, but one thing is for sure, they like to pronounce their verdicts over and over.
If you like the coins, pick some up.
That’s it, if you like the coin pay what ever you want it’s your money. There is a lot to look at here what will kill the price will be the long shipping date, but I’ll keep buying after they start shipping out and that’s all I’m saying about that. There are to many plus’s for this one for me to worry about it. Just be patient with this one.
Hoard the keys.
Dang it! I totally forgot to log in at noon today with my 10 credit cards that had ten billing addresses and...just kidding!
You blew it
You need 10 ships to also
The 2020 Palladium did a full sell through, went to unavailable for months, then went back on sale with about 10% returned
It’s possible to have failed flips.
What happened then was a quick failure though. You knew quickly.
Perhaps there is a great chance this won’t follow the same plan.
Maybe half of these will be returned/cancelled, sewn into canvas bags, and dumped into the Atlantic?
No
All returns will be overstruck “2022” and sold next year
Returns to be sold with certificates of authenticity, to commemorate the first sale attempt.
I'm not sure it is anything but realistic to point out that 95+% of Mint products are long term losers... and that's BEFORE this year's significant price increases.
This is not to argue against collecting them. If it brings you pleasure buy it. Most hobby purchases are long term losers. But you should at least recognize the likelihood that a one off "commemorative" with a mintage of 850,000 is unlikely to be one of the rare winners. Even 200k on the Peace is probably too many of these aren't embraced as part of the original series. Commems over 100,000 have a horrible track record even with a $35 issue price.
I don’t know why this thread (and many others) turn into a flippers thread with ROI and investment coinage discussions.
It’s just a series of coins, highly anticipated and based on initial pre-sale, highly accepted.
I don’t care if people flip.
Many of us just like to collect.
If they increase in value over time good, if they don’t I don’t care. I buy coins I like.
Those coin that I don’t care for anymore I move on from and sell.
I accept the fact that most will not net a profit.
Perhaps a new thread of flipping coins should be started and debated.
Well said, Danno. Some are fixated with flipping. It gets old.
I started one. They told me to stick to the main thread.
The reason these always turn into flipping threads is two-fold:
1. People yell about flippers ruining the release
2. There are a lot of flippers out there
Are you referring to the flippers or the people that are yelling about the flippers?
I’m referring to you.
LOL. Really? I'm shocked.
ROFL!!!!
The dealers are not saying when or even IF they will have the Morgan and Peace dollars. I know that some already have their allotments because of the ABPP and others have their allotments through Mint purchases on the day of release as well as purchases from others who ordered the coins. If the dealers remain mum on this, I guess I will have to buy through eBay (which I really do not want to do). It's a crapshoot: Do I buy now or wait and risk the price increasing?
Despite the fact that my answer borders on a "flipping" discussion, I would wait. There is little likelihood that the price a year or two from now will be higher than during this period of desperate acquisition.
95+% of all Mint issues peak in price within 6 months of release and then settle down. I think this is especially true at the 175,000 mintage level. ASE's are one of the most widely collected of all U.S. series and any ASE with 100,000+ mintage is $100 coin or less. It would be very surprising if these "tribute coins" weren't in the $100 to $150 range in a year or two.
There's really no need to chase the coin.
I LOVE this! Great job and thank you for speaking up! Thank you for making me smile!😎🥇
Your "ignore" is broken.
…flippers are for dolphins and divers, I collect coins
Latest from the Mint...
Not an easy job the Mint has.
They are the major supplier of our longest threads on this forum that are the most visited, most talked about, most responded to and most complained about.
I appreciate them continuing to try to clarify the situation and I’m glad I was able to pre-order a few, as it is.
It will be interesting to see if folks start canceling orders if dealers aren't interested in buying.
I wonder what web traffic management tools the letter refers to. I still have nightmares about the ones used during the V75 Eagle release.
As was discussed previously, I'm not sure there is a satisfactory fix. It will be interesting to see what the Mint does.
Select ALL Blueberry muffins
What would ever lead you to believe that dealers are not interested in buying?
BST references available on request
None I've offered to have been interested.
I bet they'd buy them at issue price
Well, OBVIOUSLY, the billing and shipping addresses were the same. GOSH!!!
Actually, here's a serious question: years ago the Mint would only ship to the billing address. Is this still the case? For obvious reasons, I'd prefer my Mint packages to be delivered to my PO box, not my house. My credit card's billing address is my house. But my Morgans are going to my house. (btw, I live at 123 Main St. It's the third house from the corner, with the white picket fence, and I am never home between 8am and 7pm. And I don't have any kind of cameras on my front porch or mailbox)
Puleeeeze. Coin collecting is DYING.
(have you seen the threads where CU members post there photos? it looks like a casting call for Cocoon)
These releases and the resulting feeding frenzy create BUZZ , BRINGS IN NEW BLOOD and MUCH NEEDED DEMAND.
Everyone is talking about these releases so I am not sure why anyone would be complaining. I have zero interest in making sure you are guaranteed a pocket piece to show off to a largely uninterested crowd at your next social event.
You go ahead wait for that 12 yr old to show some interest in those old coins, meanwhile flipping pulls in a younger crowd with disposable cash who may very well end up staying.
Loves me some shiny!
Not even clear on that. I had planned to sell the 10 & use the profit to buy a 70. Not looking good for that.