I think the 2006-W $100 is a sleeper, but I also believe the $10 plats have the largest collector base by far. It will be interesting to see what happens this year to the $10 2007-W plats when they sell out. No one is going to buy four coin sets for the 1/10 oz coin, so on a percentage basis, my guess is the 1/10 oz coin will do very nicely.
The reason I think the 1/10 oz coins will sell out is they are afforadable to a wide range of collectors. It will be interesting to watch.
Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
Thanks SO much all of you for posting and sharing your thoughts also.
I do agree with DeepCoin that the tenths could be strong on a percentage basis. The Unc 2006-w tenth plat and gold for that matter are looking good. The Gold has sold over 90 percent of last years total sales and its just Sept. The $10 Unc 2006w plat is looking very strong at ten percent beyond last years total sales.
Weekly sales report as of 9/25/2007 for all the plats
UNC 2007-W PLATS $100 SINGLE ISSUE.....516 $50 SINGLE ISSUE.......405 $25 SINGLE ISSUE.......530 $10 SINGLE ISSUE.......2244.....THATS 3908 AND MORE THAN LAST YEAR SO 2006-W LOOKS GOOD FOUR COIN SET...........1664
PROOF 2007 PLATS $100 SINGLE ISSUE.....1621 $50 SINGLE ISSUE.......686 $25 SINGLE ISSUE.......787 $10 SINGLE ISSUE.......1417 FOUR COIN SET...........2977
I guess to put things in perspective for UNC Platinum coins, these are the numbers for 2007 after 11 weeks of sales:
2007 $10 - 364 more coins sold dated 2007 over the total for 2006 (as of this date) 2007 $25 - 482 coins to go to match last year's total 2007 $50 - 508 coins to go to match last year's total 2007 $100 - 988 coins to go
Keep in mind that these numbers only account for 11 weeks of sales so far and the year is still going strong. We have 14 weeks left this year and the mint will probably be selling these until late Spring next year. That gives the mint 14 weeks to decide if it wants to strike more of these (I would say that's highly likely at this point)...
I think 2006 is looking better and better every day...
<< <i>That gives the mint 14 weeks to decide if it wants to strike more of these(I would say that's highly likely at this point)...
I think 2006 is looking better and better every day... >>
Why likely? Platinum is only $2 under the all time high as I write this. What if there's a jump and the Mint halts orders? Do you really think they would bother to restrike and reprice such an unpopular issue (like they will with the gold W's)?
Why likely? Platinum is only $2 under the all time high as I write this. What if there's a jump and the Mint halts orders? Do you really think they would bother to restrike and reprice such an unpopular issue (like they will with the gold W's)?
Yes I do. Unpopular, is a harsh term considering that 2006 was the first year for Uncirculated Platinum with changing reverses and there is an immense amount of hype around them. Unpopular is also a harsh term considering that finding 2004 Proofs available is very difficult (if they were unpopular they wouldn't be collected and even if they were low mintage they would be easily available which by the way they are not).
The mint is not just going to stop producing a product after 11 weeks of sales, especially considering the hype after last year. The mint repriced the Proofs last year and they will again this year if they have to. Platinum went up last year as well; yet, they sold more Proofs last year than they did in 2004 and 2005. Halting orders for repricing, likely; ending production for the rest of the year, I don't think so. That is why is likely...
Besides, like I said, the quarter and the half only have about 500 coins to sell before they match last year's numbers.
I very much doubt the Mint will strike more plats for FY07 than have already been made. The quantities are quite small and given the very large production schedule due to all the different gold, silver and platinum coins made at West Point, I suspect what has been struck in the first run will be all that are produced.
Remember, they have to produce all the bullion coins and the fall is when they gear up for 2008 production. Production is more than just striking coins, you have to deal with packaging, assembly, shipping, COAs..etc. You lose all your economies of scale if you have more than one production run. That is why I think the whole first strike labeling is so funny. All the coins are typically struck in one run, with the exception of bullion coins where millions of uncs are struck (silver SAEs for example).
Just MHO.
Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
Good counter point, your argument makes sense. The mint usually does market analysis for their products before they strike to avoid having to strike twice; however, if the mint believes a product to be good for 5,000 - 6,000 coins then they'll only strike that many as overage has to be melted if it is not sold. The $10s are already 364 coins over the amount of coins that were sold last year so there is a good chance they made at least 5,000 to 6,000 of those.
We all know the mint can not strike 2007 dated bullion in 2008 so if they are low on $10s or $25s (or any of the other denominations) before year's end, they would strike some more to supply early 2008 sales. It all depends on how many they made to begin with.
That's the plan! Sales will continue until the fat lady sings!!!
....until they run out of what they make/made in 2007
Another consideration is the number of Dies dedicated for this series.
A Proof planchet that yields a Platinum W-Proof requires (5) strikes @ 200 tons
A Burnished Proof planchet that yields a Platinum W-Unc gets a REDUCTION in the number of strikes for the final product, perhaps only (3-4) strikes @ 200 tons.
Will there be many returns now that the 07's has essentially surpassed the 06's?
Maybe, but that is not going to effect this years number too much, IMHO.
Remember that the Mint’s Burnished Series is a direct competitor to the exclusive Dealer Sales of the Platinum Business Strikes that are struck in Philadelphia.
The Mint has expanded these bullion sales with all of the W-Unc series (Gold, Silver & Plat) and positioned each metal as a "mid-priced product", both in QUALITY AND PRICE, between the Proof Market and the Dealer owned Bullion Market. The Mint's Burnished program gives the former BU (Gold, Silver & Plat) Buyer a chance to eliminate the middle man, acquire a bit of numismatic value along with the Bullion price.
I don't think the Dealers were too pleased about splitting the (Gold, Silver & Plat) Eagle Market from 2 to 3 segments.
These are average prices realized for 2006 and 2007 Uncirculated Platinum with W mint mark. The information was obtained from eBay and Teletrade auctions.
Guys its been a while since I commented at length on the modern coinage markets. We are seeing in our life time one of the most important sea changes since FDR signed the gold ban into law in 1933. There is a great deal of confusion and emotion in our current markets and I think it will help to keep a few important points in mind:
1) The mint is killing most of its small and affordable small denomination coin series struck on the precious metals as of next year. We are not going to have to wonder very much about which coin will end up the key date of the series that are ending. The kings are kings and they will stay that way forever at least according to the Red Book listing anyway. Those that chose to collect the closed series(classic guys like to call closed series legacy sets) will not have to face a seemingly endless financial obligation every year that fluctuates with the metals market. When people are spending their money they like some degree of certainty and that's one comforting aspect about classic that the moderns collectors have been denied over the last 22 years. This is about to change!
2) From 1900-2000 coinage prices especially for key dates exploded in real terms and most of the respected coin historians attribute this to the growth in real net disposable income in the US. As has been stated before the majority of series total set values are contained in the leading three key dates. Over the last 100 years if you bought just the keys and let the rest of the coins go you would have the best appreciation rate possible especially if the keys are purchased prior to series maturity in the highest grades they could be found. This is a important aspect of what we do and historically with few exceptions its the only aspect worthy of note if you are talking about coinage pricing structures.
There are three important periods where the key dates advantages fell apart. The first is the great depression. Disposable income almost completely collapsed and Roosevelt in an attempt to increase the money supply drastically increased the official price of gold to $35 an oz. The public could not afford to collect coins in general and the common dates were dumped for face or melted and sold for the going price of gold. The only thing that drives key date values is the incomplete common date sets that need them. The fate of the common dates dictated the pricing fate of the keys and in 1933 that was not a pretty picture. As the thirties proved face and bullion are the ultimate pricing floors for coins and the cheap common dates bought near intrinsic value performed better than the keys. In time disposable income bounced back and the metal content was not an issue so the keys bounced back with a vengeance.
During the great silver boom of the late 70s-80 the Hunts dove the price of silver to almost $50 per oz. Washington quarter, mercury dime etc sets were taken into coin and bullion dealers. The 1932 D & S quarters were popped out and kept as were the 1916 D and 1921 D dimes. Everything else went into the junk bag of melting pot. Again the common dates moved up sharply but the keys were flat to down because they at least for a while had no home. Again the metals prices relaxed and good times returned.
Most of you that have been watching this board for the last 4 years can write this paragraph. Platinum in particular has seen a run from $700 an oz to $2300 in the last four years. Key date platinum eagles like the 2004 seated America half went from being a $685 coin to a $2400 by 2006. Over the last year and a half as the price of platinum exploded and the economy came under hardship the common date platinum eagle halves were sold off for melt to guys like Kitco & Silver town etc. From 2006 to the spring of 2008 the price of common dates doubled but the key date proof platinum halves were flat to down. Collectors were less able to afford the sets both due to less disposable income and higher common date prices so the key dates did not have common date sets to drive them and prices fell.
My point is this. Most of the time in the last 100 years if you just bought the key dates and not the sets you were in good shape. High grade key date collectors made a killing and enjoyed the best material. We each need to decide for ourselves where we think collecting, long term disposable income and metals prices are going from now on. I have been asked many times why bother to collect by set? The answer is multifaceted. The first reason is condition rarity. The lowest mintage coin may not be the rarest in high grade. Second is survival rate. A common date may become a dark horse key date if they are not saved. The last and maybe the most important is demand curve diversification. If disposable income improves again or capital preservation considerations issues increase collector demand the keys are in the set and will carry the day even if the metals are flat to down. If materials spike hard and drive all the keys underwater the total set value growth will carry the day. ALL coins face and metal value are their ultimate price floor and we will do well to keep this in mind.
Lets take a walk through some series:
*Buffalo Gold Proofs Fractionals and the behavior of popular one year type coins and commemoratives:
Do you guys remember this post from 2007.................................
"The problem with endless streams of coins without unifying design elements is the value of the coins to a large extent is not based primarily on mintage but by design appeal. Lets look at some examples of this:
This is the danger we face. When a group of coins has a significant percentage of its members with completely different designs without some clearly unifying design element the series will be collected by design type. Dates and mint marks count for very little if anything. That’s the problem with the Arkansas halves. They are a 15 coin series with rare keys but it does not matter. They are a 85,000 total mintage type coin and the market prices them as such. You do not want a series you collect to get caught in this scenario."
Notice the Buffalo Dollar is dirt common....one of the most common of all silver dollar commems but it does not matter. Its a one year type coin that's got unreal market appeal. I don't understand it and frankly don't even like its looks but the public loves it. When the one once Buffalo gold first came out a couple years ago the demand was so great that even with sky high production rates coming out of the Mint the coins just could not be kept on the shelves. Finally the total population got so huge that the coins premium vanished and melt was its destiny . Now we know that up to this year there have been no fractional mint state or proof Buffalo gold coins at all. After this year all the fractional proof Buffalos will be gone. That makes all the proof fractionals a one year type coin with a mintage of less than 40,000 coins. How long it will take the fraction proof buffalo gold to mature is anyones guess and much of the lies with the economy but I suggest if you want one and can afford one go buy it.
*2008-W Buffalo Gold mint state fractionals: The little tenth "w" just died somewhere between 12000 and 15000 coins as a single issue. Four coin sets are normally struck in about the same numbers as the tenths so lets assume for the sake of argument that the 2008-W $5 fractional has a total mintage of about 24,000-30,000+ coins. The world standard is 24k gold not the 90 percent coins. The mint knows this and if fractional gold comes back where will it end up? Not the previous saint based gold eagle but the Buffalo fractional likely will emerge. What kind of mintage is typical for a MS tenth oz gold coin sold as bullion from the mint? 200,000+. Thats a very deep key if the buffalo fractionals are ever a bullion run. 1995 "w" silver eagle kind of deep key.
The same can be said for the 2008-w $10 Buffalo but to a lessor extent because the typical quarter oz bullion run for the mint in a year is 50,000+ coins. The 2008-w half is offered in the 8-8-8 two coin set, single issue and 4 coin set so it may not be low enough mintage to have any teeth.
*Mint State Fractional Gold eagles with the Saint obverse: Well we finally know how many coins comprise these lovely little sets....26 or 27 coins! AND..... as a closed series they do not have to face the Specter of the Mint going with a changing reverse in the series and destroying the likelihood of series date and mint mark collecting being the sets standard structure thus destroying the value of the backdates. They are the only closed US gold that that can be completed in mint state sets that are not beat up for less than $50,000. They have high material content and can be purchased for little more than melt in most cases in MS-69 grades. The gold value is the floor under your set. Plus it has the potential to be a rare set. Look at the mintage of the 1999-w, 2006-w, 2007-w and 2008-w gold eagles. The four "w" coins rule these sets and the common ones are twice as rare as 1950 proof Franklin halves! There are only going to be about 3,000 to 6,000 complete date and mint mark sets of these little coins in MS-69. Tight enough to be valuable but still achievable on a budget. As far as I am aware no new 1999-w roles have been found for the $5 or $10 denomination in the last 2 years.
If you think collecting by date and mint make will endure as a principle collecting structure for gold coinage then the complete fractional gold eagle sets are attractive.
*First Spouse Gold:
*Silver Commems:
*Gold Commems:
*Proof Platinum Egles:
*Uncirculated Platinum Eagles:
*Dangers and Opportunities Associated with design based collecting:
*Design Based Rarity of Moderns.....tomorrows super sets
*Recent Dividing of Collector Demand
Will finish later.........
*Unc Silver Eagles-Stable structures This is the modern Morgan and the mintage of the 2007-w just blew past the 2006-w and its just September. The five coin set is coming that includes the 2007-w so we are going to see 600,000 plus of these coins this year. The market has been buying about 8-10 million silver eagles every year for a while now and thats well over $100 million worth a year. The market does not need to find any "new money" to sell 750,000 of these "w" eagles every year going forward because they are substitute goods. Bullion buyers and collectors are simply diverting about $15-20 million of the over $100 million normally spent on silver eagles with no mint mark because the return is better and the W mintages are lower.
With at least 7 million bullion eagles issued every year and a long run of 500,000 to 1 million "w" silver eagles coming out the 2006-w will likely survive for a while as king of a 150 million population thats growing at the rate of 8-10 million coins a year. Guys unless something changes this sets total pop will be as large as that of the surviving Morgans one day! Many will collect just the "w" coins and some will buy all of them. We do know that the common bullion dollars do not grade as well as the "w" coins that have had special packaging. I think bullion ngc or pcgs MS-70 issues may do well because of this provided you can buy them cheap. Do not pay stupid money for 70s!
The bullion platinum eagles with the eagle flying over the sun are in serious trouble because their structure is going to be identical to the Arkansas Halves if the changing reverse mint state plats survive as long as the mint indicates they will. We may see a 2,000-5000 mintage platinum bullion coin this year but it may not matter as much as one might expect 10 years out.
Notice to a large extent total type mintage does not count as much as one would expect either. The Hawaiian and the Hudson are of the same rarity class but the Hudson is not that well liked. The buffalo dollar is common as dirt but its worth 2.5 times that of the Leif dollar that’s 8 times rarer. Even the Wheel chair dollar with its tiny 14,500 mintage is only pulling a 50% premium over a coin that’s 15 times more common. The problem with coins lacking clear and strong design unity of some sort is they are in effect stand alone coins or close to it and the pricing structure acts like it.
*Modern Commems: I was asked about the potential of the commemorative dollars and the best answer I can think of is look to the value of the Hudson in MS-63 which is the center of its grading bell line curve. A 70 year old commem key date with a 10,000 mintage is worth $1000 in todays dollars. I doubt any of the MS-69 1996 Olympic Dollars with roughly 15,000 mintage will do any better at full maturity unless a promoter is able to corner the market and produce a short term spike. If you see the four 1996 MS Olympic dollars roll past $900 each it may be time to collect something else.
*Unc Gold eagles again: What I REALLY want to know about this series is how will it die? We know that the series is subject to the 1890 law requiring 25 years of design stability prior to a change and this is a good thing. If the series ends by 2010 or even better continues well into the next decade with its current designs then the mint marked key dates will be something to behold especially the little 99-Ws with their next to nothing mintages because the total populations of these coins in high grade are getting huge and the keys are extremely tight. My one remote fear is that at some point after 2011 the mint will decide to go to a changing reverse on the gold eagle. If they do so over an extended period of time we could find ourselves in an Arkansas type mess just like the bullion plats are in.
We are fortunate that the existing Gold Eagles are protected from change for the foreseeable future and the Mint more than likely realizes that some people like to collect stable series and it is a lovely series.
I have been trying to figure out how to know when the collector base of a series is getting strong enough to send its keys into orbit. This is especially true of the 99-W gold eagles. Given that all the mint state finish gold eagles came in rolls or draw string bags I think its safe to say the MS coins are more likely to be collected in slabs than non existent government packaging. Notice that the common date fractional gold eagles from 1990 to 1995 are not rare but they have pops that are about 30 percent lower than that of the 99-w issues. This indicates to me that today there are more 99-w gold eagles than there are series collectors. When the common back dates pull even with the slab pops of the keys this may be an early sign that time is running out on building a set.
*First Spouses The set has a structure very much like new and old commems and its long term pricing structure may reflect this........ Translates the lower mintage coins may not be more valuable than the more common and attractive issues. Many collectors including myself think the classic gold subset is very attractive and they may be the hardest to come by in the out years. Remember to consider in your calculations that the mint is looking hard at a multi-year run of old gold restrike designs that will follow on the Buffalo gold 4 coin set. A complete restrike may be much more desirable than a partial Jefferson restrike at some point. If a great coin comes to this set it will be a later overlooked issue just like the 1936 proof Walker half did not sell in the midst of the 1936 commem mania most of whose members came to nothing relatively speaking.
*Changing Reverse Platinum Eagles Blending a stable obverse with a changing reverse is forcing series price behavior on a type set and this is a good thing. The next generation of collector may not be as hot on dates and mint marks as we are and taking that prospect out of the equation gives me a higher degree of security when I am spending my money. The "platinum complex" as Wondercoin likes to call it is being collected as a SERIES TYPE SET.
Lets consider what the mint has told us about the proposed designs over the next 7 years and then superimpose historical sales relationships on current mintage trends:
The halves and quarter plat proofs are selling in the 7000-8000 range now. Lets assume for a moment that the high end of the typical unc/proof relationship holds through the current three coin "foundations" and proposed six coin "preamble" themes ending in 2015. Guys thats a very roughly 7500x.65 = 4500-5200 coins per year random walk.
Lets put this in a table.....with a random walk
Unc "W" $25 Platinum Eagles Year/ mintage
2006...2,677...Legislative 2007...5,000...Presidential 2008...5,200...Judicial 2009...5,200...We the people 2010...4,900...Perfect Union 2011...5,100...Establish Justice 2012...4,750...Domestic Tranquility 2013...5,150...Common defense 2014...4,500...General Welfare 2015...5,200...Blessings of Liberty.......When a chart that looks like this shows up in your Red Book will you be one of the guys that has a set? Notice that the “common dates” are MS Jackie Robinson rarity class.
The changing reverse proof and mint state plats already represent 19 out of the 22 lowest mintage design and denomination based type coins offered for sale to the public with mintages under 9,000 since 1915. This utter design based dominance is likely to get much much more pronounced over the next ten years. Long term collectors like good designs, clearly unifying design elements, and rarity. The good looks are there and still to come. The mints sales and marketing director said that plats are the series over which they have total thematic and design freedom and they consider it their premier offering.
If I could hand a new collector a grocery list of what to look for it would be the following: 1) Favor series with a major unifying design aspect that is hard to get past. 2) Each coin should be differentiated not just on mint marks and dates because the rest of the world is going type and we may too at some point. Its insurance. 3) Buy coins with mintages less than 7000 coins because if you graph price vs population of design based type coins over the last 100 years the point at which they have a tendency to take off is about 6,500 coins. Anything less that that is pay dirt for the patient. 4) Buy coins with higher mintages only if the total population of the set is massive.
I know that some may consider my views biased but I would like to think they are not. I study everything I can find and hold a fairly wide variety of modern commems, gold and silver eagles even a first spouse or two. Previously I collected classics. After looking at the behavior of coinage markets and the behavior of series over the last one hundred years I have come to the rational conclusion that the changing reverse plats long term fundamentals are nearly bullet proof barring a deflationary spiral. They will be in our life time one of if not THE MEGA SET.
If there is ANY WAY you can afford to collect one of the denominations of changing reverse platinum eagles in proof and mint state (w) I without reservation suggest you do so and give them to your children.
THE SET VS THE KEY DATE: As has been stated before the majority of series total set values are contained in the leading three key dates. Over the last 100 years if you bought just the keys and let the rest of the coins go you would have the best appreciation rate possible especially if the keys are purchased prior to series maturity in the highest grades they could be found. This is true in good times and may be true again.
I have been asked many times why bother to collect by set? The answer is multifaceted. The first reason is condition rarity. The lowest mintage coin may not be the rarest in high grade. Second is survival rate. A common date may become a dark horse key date if they are not saved. The last and maybe the most important is demand curve diversification. If disposable income improves again or capital preservation considerations issues increase collector demand the keys are in the set and will carry the day even if the metals are flat to down. If materials spike hard and drive all the keys underwater the total set value growth will carry the day. The coins metal value is the ultimate price floor and we will do well to keep this in mind.
ericj96 you the man. Don't forget in the 80'S silver went to $50.00 an oz. every body dumped silver it melting pots. Morgans to melted in large numbers. If the mint keeps banging the A.S.E out in the future they will surpass the Morgans pops. IF silver gos to $60.00 an oz. it may be the savior for the collector base.
IF silver gos to $60.00 an oz. it may be the savior for the collector base.
If silver goes to $60 an ounce, it may become too expensive for most collectors to complete silver eagle sets (or other silver sets) by date / mintmark / finish.
High bullion cost is part of the reason that platinum coins are not collected more widely.
$60 per ounce silver would make type collecting more attractive, because it would be more affordable. For silver eagles, the only beneficiary of this trend would be the 2006-P reverse proof.
"it appears that there are very few raw specimens left"
What are you getting at? Are you a naturalist like me? Sooner or later they will drool over intact casings and mint box.....wwwoooohhoooo hooo ha ha haaaaa!
Looking at eBay and eBay stores listings combined, for burnished 2006-W platinum (all denominations) I count 26 TPG individual coins and 6 TPG sets of four.
I see exactly one coin offered in original mint packaging!
Yes! It took me a year to get all the $50 proofs in the mint box on Ebay......tough to do. Unfortunately even tougher may be getting a decent 2007 specimen. If I have one more crappy replacement, Im going to be begging on this board for a decent coin in the mint box.
Rounded-off unaudited sales figures for the burnished 2006-W Platinum Eagles reported in the July 5th Coin World :
Single 1-ounce platinum – 1,500 Single half-ounce platinum – 1,025 Single quarter-ounce platinum - 850 Single tenth-ounce platinum – 2000 Four-coin platinum Set - 2775"
These numbers are old ..........for those who are interested in the latest story.................
The 2006-w unc platinum numbers quoted in Coin World were from late June and do not reference anyone at the mint by name. The June CW numbers do not fit the known weekly sales report data, the historical mint sales relationships for each denomination, or the denominational pop reports from PCGS and NGC, or the ebay sales relationships over the last 9 months, etc. More importantly the CW article prompted calls to the US mint Office of Public Affairs and the actual numbers were requested from the accounting office that deals with mintages to confirm the CW data. A report on the 2006-w unc plats was given to Michael White in July. It is the most recent report and can be confirmed.
The numbers were $100 single issue... 1079 $50 single issue..... 588 $25 single issue..... 687 $10 single issue.... 1555 4 coin set ...............1989
If the CW numbers were right they should have shown up again in July. I have been watching the sales report for years now and have NEVER seen it wrong by more than about 6 percent. The CW numbers would require about 40 percent error in the weekly sales report. It is good practice to use the highest numbers around as worst case numbers when deciding what a coin is worth long term so you do not get hurt. Guys use the CW numbers as an unlikely worst case but realize the odds are stacked against them.
Wanted this data posted here so it will not get "lost".
Please forgive the novice question but is the 1999-w "key" gold eagle to which Eric referrs the $5 and $10 Gold Eagle "error" coins (i.e., were supposed to be proof finish but struck w/o proof finish) or is he referring to some other 1999-w such as the proof?
Thanks very much for the info.
Thanks Eric for your continued thoughtful, articulate and well researched insights.
is the 1999-w "key" gold eagle to which Eric referrs the $5 and $10 Gold Eagle "error" coins (i.e., were supposed to be proof finish but struck w/o proof finish) or is he referring to some other 1999-w such as the proof?
The error coins were distributed along with the regular uncirculated bullion coins, but it was later discovered that some of them were "unfinished proofs" by virtue of them having a "W" mintmark, but no mirror finish. The regular uncirculated bullion coins didn't have a mintmark.
The regular proofs were issued separately by the Mint, and were regular mirror finish proofs, with a "W" mintmark, as usual.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
So is now the time to buy my 2007 $50 plats or do i wait for the yet to be announced 10th anniv set? BTW you can count me in for 1 2006w unc $50 still in mint packaging.
Thanks for the info. I am still not clear whether Eric is referring to the 1999-w error coins or the 1999-w proof coins when he cites the 1999-w gold eagles as the keys to the set. Any clarification would be most appreicated.
Thanks for the info. I am still not clear whether Eric is referring to the 1999-w error coins or the 1999-w proof coins when he cites the 1999-w gold eagles as the keys to the set. Any clarification would be most appreicated.
Thanks! >>
He is referring to the error coins "struck with unfinished proof dies"
The poor quality control for the 2007 W Unc. Plats makes for an interesting dilemma regarding the desicion to keep the boxes, eps. FS (absurd as this designation is) eligible boxes unopened for possible future sale or to open them in case a coin or coins are damaged. Has anyone left the boxes unopened?
The unc 1999-w was struck on standard gold eagle unc planchets with unfinished proof dies thus creating a 1999-w gold unc. The new "burnished 2006-w and 2007-w" gold eagles are also struck with "unfinished proof dies". Attached is an older post:
Wednesday February 21, 2007 3:16 PM
"anyone know how many of the 1999-W error there are? "
No one knows exactly all we can do is build a probable range.
We know that the budget purpose expected die life for Unc moderns gold eagles is and has been 6,000 per die set. We know that the coins have been carrying very high multiples of bullion value since issue. A very accelerated submission rate to the graders has resulted.
Its getting VERY HARD to find a roll these days and after about 7-8 years of scratching the market has only come up with 3,000 tenths and 2000 quarters. These rolls have a $30,000-$45,000 bounty on their head but they still are not coming to market. Of those 2 and 3 k that have shown up at the graders many of them are crack outs.
No one knows the exact number and more than likely we never will. Bare in mind that of the 21,000 known 2006-w $5 coins 4700 have shown up at the graders in 8 weeks because they are high premium coins. The market has only found 3000 of the 99-w mint state coins in 8 years .........and it isn't for lack of looking. Assuming that the market will continue to find these coins at the same rate it has been for the last 8 years it will take 45 more years to equal the 2006-w population. They are not going to find them at the same rate they have been for that long so its just not likely to happen......they are the MEGA keys to the modern Saints.
If the rolls run out somewhere in the 6-8 thousand range or less you better have them in hand when the last roll is gone.... and if half of them have already been found and the mintage in MS-69 ends up in the 4-6 thousand range then they could behave like the 1995 W proof silver eagle because the collector base compression ratios would be simmilar. If Julian is correct and they end up in the 3,000 -4,000 range then the coins are almost gone and they could turn into MEGA coins in the next few years.
<< <i>The poor quality control for the 2007 W Unc. Plats makes for an interesting dilemma regarding the desicion to keep the boxes, eps. FS (absurd as this designation is) eligible boxes unopened for possible future sale or to open them in case a coin or coins are damaged. Has anyone left the boxes unopened? >>
I have some that i am fixin' to send in. If I get any back that look bad - 68's or something - I will buy new from Mint and swap out and send back. I have never received anything from the mint that wasn't a 69 and usually the only thing i see is luster break on the burnished gold - I got a proof plat last year with a hit on the nose. Could only see it with a glass.
Is this the beginning of end of the 2007 w-unc plats?
This is a great question. I say no.
I think the answer for the final 2007 W Unc Mintage comes down to manufacturing production minimums and die wear when minting Platinum at the US Mint in West Point.
Lets assume in 2006 we had a Minimal Production Run for Burnished Platinum:
2006 W Unc Platinum Eagle Coin 4-coin set ...............1,989 $100 2006 W Unc Platinum Eagle Coin Total issue... 1,079 Single + 1,989 = 3,068 $50 2006 W Unc Platinum Eagle Coin Total issue..... 588 Single + 1,989 = 2,577 $25 2006 W Unc Platinum Eagle Coin Total issue..... 687 Single + 1,989 = 2,676 $10 2006 W Unc Platinum Eagle Coin Total issue.... 1,555 Single + 1,989 = 3,544
Anything over our Minimum that we see in 2007, will give us a clue if they went beyond the 2006 bench mark. I have noticed and perhaps other will concur, that the US Mint is apparently giving the Monday sales reporting to NN as a running sales number less returns, this year. Ass-u-me-ing this is the case, lets focus in on the $10 Coin.
Right now, for 2007, the Mint has sold 2,244 Singles! or almost 50% MORE coins than the enitire 2006 W single $10 coin run. That's alot of coins for this series. I think it is safe to assume the regular business bullion sales for plain Platinum BU have been taken by the burnished offering.
There is a previous post in this thread that states the number of strikes needed per coin for Platinum. It is quite high. Die wear is an issue here.
But if one can assume 1,555 ( 3,544 w/ sets) for the single/combined $10 coin issue in 2006 is accurate for a minimum set of budgeted dies, it appears to me that the US Mint has increased allocation for dies in 2007, thus producing a larger number of coins for inventory.
All we need now are sales, which should take a big jump this week for the series given the rise in Platinum prices.
Platinum down $20+ in Asia, unless this is a short correction we may run out of buyers for the 07s. There is an Elliott wave tracker that says that a pullback is needed at this stage before we get the slingshot wave upwards in gold silver and platinum though
I predict a sell out of the 1/10 plat unc by the end of October. It will be interesting to watch what happens to the other unc plats once the little ones are gone.
Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
Ok! Let's do this again. Here's a status comparison between 2006 W Platinum Uncirculated Sales as of Week 12 vs 2007 W Platinum Uncirculated Sales Sales as of week 12:
2007 $10 - 364 more coins sold dated 2007 over the total for 2006 (as of this date) 2007 $25 - 482 coins to go to match last year's total 2007 $50 - 508 coins to go to match last year's total 2007 $100 - 988 coins to go
These are the same stats after 12 weeks:
2007 $10 - 602 more coins sold dated 2007 over the total for 2006 (as of this date) 2007 $25 - 278 coins to go to match last year's total 2007 $50 - 280 coins to go to match last year's total 2007 $100 - 522 coins to go
I agree with deapcoin. Its not going to be a question of how many will sell through spring of 08, it will be a question of how many did they strike. There are many reasons for my view that the unc-w plats will be roughly Jackie Robinson unc gold class rarity coins for 07.
Comments
THERE ARE NO COINS !!!!
A Spade is a Spade.
We all want mo Money.
And everybody wanna go to Heaven,
but nobody wanna Die !!
Ol' Hank !!!
The reason I think the 1/10 oz coins will sell out is they are afforadable to a wide range of collectors. It will be interesting to watch.
I do agree with DeepCoin that the tenths could be strong on a percentage basis. The Unc 2006-w tenth plat and gold for that matter are looking good. The Gold has sold over 90 percent of last years total sales and its just Sept. The $10 Unc 2006w plat is looking very strong at ten percent beyond last years total sales.
Weekly sales report as of 9/25/2007 for all the plats
UNC 2007-W PLATS
$100 SINGLE ISSUE.....516
$50 SINGLE ISSUE.......405
$25 SINGLE ISSUE.......530
$10 SINGLE ISSUE.......2244.....THATS 3908 AND MORE THAN LAST YEAR SO 2006-W LOOKS GOOD
FOUR COIN SET...........1664
PROOF 2007 PLATS
$100 SINGLE ISSUE.....1621
$50 SINGLE ISSUE.......686
$25 SINGLE ISSUE.......787
$10 SINGLE ISSUE.......1417
FOUR COIN SET...........2977
2007 $10 - 364 more coins sold dated 2007 over the total for 2006 (as of this date)
2007 $25 - 482 coins to go to match last year's total
2007 $50 - 508 coins to go to match last year's total
2007 $100 - 988 coins to go
Keep in mind that these numbers only account for 11 weeks of sales so far and the year is still going strong. We have 14 weeks left this year and the mint will probably be selling these until late Spring next year. That gives the mint 14 weeks to decide if it wants to strike more of these (I would say that's highly likely at this point)...
I think 2006 is looking better and better every day...
<< <i>That gives the mint 14 weeks to decide if it wants to strike more of these(I would say that's highly likely at this point)...
I think 2006 is looking better and better every day... >>
Why likely? Platinum is only $2 under the all time high as I write this. What if there's a jump and the Mint halts orders? Do you really think they would bother to restrike and reprice such an unpopular issue (like they will with the gold W's)?
Yes I do. Unpopular, is a harsh term considering that 2006 was the first year for Uncirculated Platinum with changing reverses and there is an immense amount of hype around them. Unpopular is also a harsh term considering that finding 2004 Proofs available is very difficult (if they were unpopular they wouldn't be collected and even if they were low mintage they would be easily available which by the way they are not).
The mint is not just going to stop producing a product after 11 weeks of sales, especially considering the hype after last year. The mint repriced the Proofs last year and they will again this year if they have to. Platinum went up last year as well; yet, they sold more Proofs last year than they did in 2004 and 2005. Halting orders for repricing, likely; ending production for the rest of the year, I don't think so. That is why is likely...
Besides, like I said, the quarter and the half only have about 500 coins to sell before they match last year's numbers.
Remember, they have to produce all the bullion coins and the fall is when they gear up for 2008 production. Production is more than just striking coins, you have to deal with packaging, assembly, shipping, COAs..etc. You lose all your economies of scale if you have more than one production run. That is why I think the whole first strike labeling is so funny. All the coins are typically struck in one run, with the exception of bullion coins where millions of uncs are struck (silver SAEs for example).
Just MHO.
Good counter point, your argument makes sense. The mint usually does market analysis for their products before they strike to avoid having to strike twice; however, if the mint believes a product to be good for 5,000 - 6,000 coins then they'll only strike that many as overage has to be melted if it is not sold. The $10s are already 364 coins over the amount of coins that were sold last year so there is a good chance they made at least 5,000 to 6,000 of those.
We all know the mint can not strike 2007 dated bullion in 2008 so if they are low on $10s or $25s (or any of the other denominations) before year's end, they would strike some more to supply early 2008 sales. It all depends on how many they made to begin with.
Week 11
12/4/2006 - 2006 W Uncirculated Platinum Eagle Sales
$10 - 3,194
$25 - 2,000
$50 - 1,950
$100 - 1,934
9/24/2007 - 2007 W Uncirculated Platinum Eagle Sales
$10 - 3,908
$25 - 2,194
$50 - 2,069
$100 - 2,180
CoinWorld says........
Box of 20
That's the plan! Sales will continue until the fat lady sings!!!
....until they run out of what they make/made in 2007
Another consideration is the number of Dies dedicated for this series.
A Proof planchet that yields a Platinum W-Proof requires (5) strikes @ 200 tons
A Burnished Proof planchet that yields a Platinum W-Unc gets a REDUCTION in the number of strikes for the final product, perhaps only (3-4) strikes @ 200 tons.
In all cases that is allot of work for a die.
Maybe, but that is not going to effect this years number too much, IMHO.
Remember that the Mint’s Burnished Series is a direct competitor to the exclusive Dealer Sales of the Platinum Business Strikes that are struck in Philadelphia.
The Mint has expanded these bullion sales with all of the W-Unc series (Gold, Silver & Plat) and positioned each metal as a "mid-priced product", both in QUALITY AND PRICE, between the Proof Market and the Dealer owned Bullion Market. The Mint's Burnished program gives the former BU (Gold, Silver & Plat) Buyer a chance to eliminate the middle man, acquire a bit of numismatic value along with the Bullion price.
I don't think the Dealers were too pleased about splitting the (Gold, Silver & Plat) Eagle Market from 2 to 3 segments.
These are average prices realized for 2006 and 2007 Uncirculated Platinum with W mint mark. The information was obtained from eBay and Teletrade auctions.
1) The mint is killing most of its small and affordable small denomination coin series struck on the precious metals as of next year. We are not going to have to wonder very much about which coin will end up the key date of the series that are ending. The kings are kings and they will stay that way forever at least according to the Red Book listing anyway. Those that chose to collect the closed series(classic guys like to call closed series legacy sets) will not have to face a seemingly endless financial obligation every year that fluctuates with the metals market. When people are spending their money they like some degree of certainty and that's one comforting aspect about classic that the moderns collectors have been denied over the last 22 years. This is about to change!
2) From 1900-2000 coinage prices especially for key dates exploded in real terms and most of the respected coin historians attribute this to the growth in real net disposable income in the US. As has been stated before the majority of series total set values are contained in the leading three key dates. Over the last 100 years if you bought just the keys and let the rest of the coins go you would have the best appreciation rate possible especially if the keys are purchased prior to series maturity in the highest grades they could be found. This is a important aspect of what we do and historically with few exceptions its the only aspect worthy of note if you are talking about coinage pricing structures.
There are three important periods where the key dates advantages fell apart. The first is the great depression. Disposable income almost completely collapsed and Roosevelt in an attempt to increase the money supply drastically increased the official price of gold to $35 an oz. The public could not afford to collect coins in general and the common dates were dumped for face or melted and sold for the going price of gold. The only thing that drives key date values is the incomplete common date sets that need them. The fate of the common dates dictated the pricing fate of the keys and in 1933 that was not a pretty picture. As the thirties proved face and bullion are the ultimate pricing floors for coins and the cheap common dates bought near intrinsic value performed better than the keys. In time disposable income bounced back and the metal content was not an issue so the keys bounced back with a vengeance.
During the great silver boom of the late 70s-80 the Hunts dove the price of silver to almost $50 per oz. Washington quarter, mercury dime etc sets were taken into coin and bullion dealers. The 1932 D & S quarters were popped out and kept as were the 1916 D and 1921 D dimes. Everything else went into the junk bag of melting pot. Again the common dates moved up sharply but the keys were flat to down because they at least for a while had no home. Again the metals prices relaxed and good times returned.
Most of you that have been watching this board for the last 4 years can write this paragraph. Platinum in particular has seen a run from $700 an oz to $2300 in the last four years. Key date platinum eagles like the 2004 seated America half went from being a $685 coin to a $2400 by 2006. Over the last year and a half as the price of platinum exploded and the economy came under hardship the common date platinum eagle halves were sold off for melt to guys like Kitco & Silver town etc. From 2006 to the spring of 2008 the price of common dates doubled but the key date proof platinum halves were flat to down. Collectors were less able to afford the sets both due to less disposable income and higher common date prices so the key dates did not have common date sets to drive them and prices fell.
My point is this. Most of the time in the last 100 years if you just bought the key dates and not the sets you were in good shape. High grade key date collectors made a killing and enjoyed the best material. We each need to decide for ourselves where we think collecting, long term disposable income and metals prices are going from now on. I have been asked many times why bother to collect by set? The answer is multifaceted. The first reason is condition rarity. The lowest mintage coin may not be the rarest in high grade. Second is survival rate. A common date may become a dark horse key date if they are not saved. The last and maybe the most important is demand curve diversification. If disposable income improves again or capital preservation considerations issues increase collector demand the keys are in the set and will carry the day even if the metals are flat to down. If materials spike hard and drive all the keys underwater the total set value growth will carry the day. ALL coins face and metal value are their ultimate price floor and we will do well to keep this in mind.
Lets take a walk through some series:
*Buffalo Gold Proofs Fractionals and the behavior of popular one year type coins and commemoratives:
Do you guys remember this post from 2007.................................
"The problem with endless streams of coins without unifying design elements is the value of the coins to a large extent is not based primarily on mintage but by design appeal. Lets look at some examples of this:
1928 Hawaiian Half..... Mintage 10,000... MS-63 Price= $3000
1935 Hudson Half...... Mintage 10,000... MS-63 Price=$1000
1939 Arkansas Half-any... Mintage 2,100... MS-63 Price=$350
1935-1939 Arkansas-PD&S.. Mintage 85,000.. MS-63 Price=$100
1996 Wheel Chair Dollar.. Mintage 14,500... MS-69 Price=$300
2001 Buffalo Dollar.. .........Mintage 227,000.. MS-69 Price=$200
2000 Leif Ericson Dollar.. Mintage 28,000... MS-69 Price=$75
This is the danger we face. When a group of coins has a significant percentage of its members with completely different designs without some clearly unifying design element the series will be collected by design type. Dates and mint marks count for very little if anything. That’s the problem with the Arkansas halves. They are a 15 coin series with rare keys but it does not matter. They are a 85,000 total mintage type coin and the market prices them as such. You do not want a series you collect to get caught in this scenario."
Notice the Buffalo Dollar is dirt common....one of the most common of all silver dollar commems but it does not matter. Its a one year type coin that's got unreal market appeal. I don't understand it and frankly don't even like its looks but the public loves it. When the one once Buffalo gold first came out a couple years ago the demand was so great that even with sky high production rates coming out of the Mint the coins just could not be kept on the shelves. Finally the total population got so huge that the coins premium vanished and melt was its destiny . Now we know that up to this year there have been no fractional mint state or proof Buffalo gold coins at all. After this year all the fractional proof Buffalos will be gone. That makes all the proof fractionals a one year type coin with a mintage of less than 40,000 coins. How long it will take the fraction proof buffalo gold to mature is anyones guess and much of the lies with the economy but I suggest if you want one and can afford one go buy it.
*2008-W Buffalo Gold mint state fractionals:
The little tenth "w" just died somewhere between 12000 and 15000 coins as a single issue. Four coin sets are normally struck in about the same numbers as the tenths so lets assume for the sake of argument that the 2008-W $5 fractional has a total mintage of about 24,000-30,000+ coins. The world standard is 24k gold not the 90 percent coins. The mint knows this and if fractional gold comes back where will it end up? Not the previous saint based gold eagle but the Buffalo fractional likely will emerge. What kind of mintage is typical for a MS tenth oz gold coin sold as bullion from the mint? 200,000+. Thats a very deep key if the buffalo fractionals are ever a bullion run. 1995 "w" silver eagle kind of deep key.
The same can be said for the 2008-w $10 Buffalo but to a lessor extent because the typical quarter oz bullion run for the mint in a year is 50,000+ coins. The 2008-w half is offered in the 8-8-8 two coin set, single issue and 4 coin set so it may not be low enough mintage to have any teeth.
*Mint State Fractional Gold eagles with the Saint obverse:
Well we finally know how many coins comprise these lovely little sets....26 or 27 coins! AND..... as a closed series they do not have to face the Specter of the Mint going with a changing reverse in the series and destroying the likelihood of series date and mint mark collecting being the sets standard structure thus destroying the value of the backdates. They are the only closed US gold that that can be completed in mint state sets that are not beat up for less than $50,000. They have high material content and can be purchased for little more than melt in most cases in MS-69 grades. The gold value is the floor under your set. Plus it has the potential to be a rare set. Look at the mintage of the 1999-w, 2006-w, 2007-w and 2008-w gold eagles. The four "w" coins rule these sets and the common ones are twice as rare as 1950 proof Franklin halves! There are only going to be about 3,000 to 6,000 complete date and mint mark sets of these little coins in MS-69. Tight enough to be valuable but still achievable on a budget. As far as I am aware no new 1999-w roles have been found for the $5 or $10 denomination in the last 2 years.
If you think collecting by date and mint make will endure as a principle collecting structure for gold coinage then the complete fractional gold eagle sets are attractive.
*First Spouse Gold:
*Silver Commems:
*Gold Commems:
*Proof Platinum Egles:
*Uncirculated Platinum Eagles:
*Dangers and Opportunities Associated with design based collecting:
*Design Based Rarity of Moderns.....tomorrows super sets
*Recent Dividing of Collector Demand
Will finish later.........
*Unc Silver Eagles-Stable structures
This is the modern Morgan and the mintage of the 2007-w just blew past the 2006-w and its just September. The five coin set is coming that includes the 2007-w so we are going to see 600,000 plus of these coins this year. The market has been buying about 8-10 million silver eagles every year for a while now and thats well over $100 million worth a year. The market does not need to find any "new money" to sell 750,000 of these "w" eagles every year going forward because they are substitute goods. Bullion buyers and collectors are simply diverting about $15-20 million of the over $100 million normally spent on silver eagles with no mint mark because the return is better and the W mintages are lower.
With at least 7 million bullion eagles issued every year and a long run of 500,000 to 1 million "w" silver eagles coming out the 2006-w will likely survive for a while as king of a 150 million population thats growing at the rate of 8-10 million coins a year. Guys unless something changes this sets total pop will be as large as that of the surviving Morgans one day! Many will collect just the "w" coins and some will buy all of them. We do know that the common bullion dollars do not grade as well as the "w" coins that have had special packaging. I think bullion ngc or pcgs MS-70 issues may do well because of this provided you can buy them cheap. Do not pay stupid money for 70s!
The bullion platinum eagles with the eagle flying over the sun are in serious trouble because their structure is going to be identical to the Arkansas Halves if the changing reverse mint state plats survive as long as the mint indicates they will. We may see a 2,000-5000 mintage platinum bullion coin this year but it may not matter as much as one might expect 10 years out.
Notice to a large extent total type mintage does not count as much as one would expect either. The Hawaiian and the Hudson are of the same rarity class but the Hudson is not that well liked. The buffalo dollar is common as dirt but its worth 2.5 times that of the Leif dollar that’s 8 times rarer. Even the Wheel chair dollar with its tiny 14,500 mintage is only pulling a 50% premium over a coin that’s 15 times more common. The problem with coins lacking clear and strong design unity of some sort is they are in effect stand alone coins or close to it and the pricing structure acts like it.
*Modern Commems:
I was asked about the potential of the commemorative dollars and the best answer I can think of is look to the value of the Hudson in MS-63 which is the center of its grading bell line curve. A 70 year old commem key date with a 10,000 mintage is worth $1000 in todays dollars. I doubt any of the MS-69 1996 Olympic Dollars with roughly 15,000 mintage will do any better at full maturity unless a promoter is able to corner the market and produce a short term spike. If you see the four 1996 MS Olympic dollars roll past $900 each it may be time to collect something else.
*Unc Gold eagles again:
What I REALLY want to know about this series is how will it die? We know that the series is subject to the 1890 law requiring 25 years of design stability prior to a change and this is a good thing. If the series ends by 2010 or even better continues well into the next decade with its current designs then the mint marked key dates will be something to behold especially the little 99-Ws with their next to nothing mintages because the total populations of these coins in high grade are getting huge and the keys are extremely tight. My one remote fear is that at some point after 2011 the mint will decide to go to a changing reverse on the gold eagle. If they do so over an extended period of time we could find ourselves in an Arkansas type mess just like the bullion plats are in.
We are fortunate that the existing Gold Eagles are protected from change for the foreseeable future and the Mint more than likely realizes that some people like to collect stable series and it is a lovely series.
I have been trying to figure out how to know when the collector base of a series is getting strong enough to send its keys into orbit. This is especially true of the 99-W gold eagles. Given that all the mint state finish gold eagles came in rolls or draw string bags I think its safe to say the MS coins are more likely to be collected in slabs than non existent government packaging. Notice that the common date fractional gold eagles from 1990 to 1995 are not rare but they have pops that are about 30 percent lower than that of the 99-w issues. This indicates to me that today there are more 99-w gold eagles than there are series collectors. When the common back dates pull even with the slab pops of the keys this may be an early sign that time is running out on building a set.
*First Spouses
The set has a structure very much like new and old commems and its long term pricing structure may reflect this........ Translates the lower mintage coins may not be more valuable than the more common and attractive issues. Many collectors including myself think the classic gold subset is very attractive and they may be the hardest to come by in the out years. Remember to consider in your calculations that the mint is looking hard at a multi-year run of old gold restrike designs that will follow on the Buffalo gold 4 coin set. A complete restrike may be much more desirable than a partial Jefferson restrike at some point. If a great coin comes to this set it will be a later overlooked issue just like the 1936 proof Walker half did not sell in the midst of the 1936 commem mania most of whose members came to nothing relatively speaking.
*Changing Reverse Platinum Eagles
Blending a stable obverse with a changing reverse is forcing series price behavior on a type set and this is a good thing. The next generation of collector may not be as hot on dates and mint marks as we are and taking that prospect out of the equation gives me a higher degree of security when I am spending my money. The "platinum complex" as Wondercoin likes to call it is being collected as a SERIES TYPE SET.
Lets consider what the mint has told us about the proposed designs over the next 7 years and then superimpose historical sales relationships on current mintage trends:
The halves and quarter plat proofs are selling in the 7000-8000 range now. Lets assume for a moment that the high end of the typical unc/proof relationship holds through the current three coin "foundations" and proposed six coin "preamble" themes ending in 2015.
Guys thats a very roughly 7500x.65 = 4500-5200 coins per year random walk.
Lets put this in a table.....with a random walk
Unc "W" $25 Platinum Eagles Year/ mintage
2006...2,677...Legislative
2007...5,000...Presidential
2008...5,200...Judicial
2009...5,200...We the people
2010...4,900...Perfect Union
2011...5,100...Establish Justice
2012...4,750...Domestic Tranquility
2013...5,150...Common defense
2014...4,500...General Welfare
2015...5,200...Blessings of Liberty.......When a chart that looks like this shows up in your Red Book will you be one of the guys that has a set? Notice that the “common dates” are MS Jackie Robinson rarity class.
The changing reverse proof and mint state plats already represent 19 out of the 22 lowest mintage design and denomination based type coins offered for sale to the public with mintages under 9,000 since 1915. This utter design based dominance is likely to get much much more pronounced over the next ten years. Long term collectors like good designs, clearly unifying design elements, and rarity. The good looks are there and still to come. The mints sales and marketing director said that plats are the series over which they have total thematic and design freedom and they consider it their premier offering.
If I could hand a new collector a grocery list of what to look for it would be the following:
1) Favor series with a major unifying design aspect that is hard to get past.
2) Each coin should be differentiated not just on mint marks and dates because the rest of the world is going type and we may too at some point. Its insurance.
3) Buy coins with mintages less than 7000 coins because if you graph price vs population of design based type coins over the last 100 years the point at which they have a tendency to take off is about 6,500 coins. Anything less that that is pay dirt for the patient.
4) Buy coins with higher mintages only if the total population of the set is massive.
I know that some may consider my views biased but I would like to think they are not. I study everything I can find and hold a fairly wide variety of modern commems, gold and silver eagles even a first spouse or two. Previously I collected classics. After looking at the behavior of coinage markets and the behavior of series over the last one hundred years I have come to the rational conclusion that the changing reverse plats long term fundamentals are nearly bullet proof barring a deflationary spiral. They will be in our life time one of if not THE MEGA SET.
If there is ANY WAY you can afford to collect one of the denominations of changing reverse platinum eagles in proof and mint state (w) I without reservation suggest you do so and give them to your children.
THE SET VS THE KEY DATE:
As has been stated before the majority of series total set values are contained in the leading three key dates. Over the last 100 years if you bought just the keys and let the rest of the coins go you would have the best appreciation rate possible especially if the keys are purchased prior to series maturity in the highest grades they could be found. This is true in good times and may be true again.
I have been asked many times why bother to collect by set? The answer is multifaceted. The first reason is condition rarity. The lowest mintage coin may not be the rarest in high grade. Second is survival rate. A common date may become a dark horse key date if they are not saved. The last and maybe the most important is demand curve diversification. If disposable income improves again or capital preservation considerations issues increase collector demand the keys are in the set and will carry the day even if the metals are flat to down. If materials spike hard and drive all the keys underwater the total set value growth will carry the day. The coins metal value is the ultimate price floor and we will do well to keep this in mind.
From the table above, it looks like between 65% and 72% of all the 2006-W burnished plats were submitted to PCGS or NGC.
Add those submitted to the other grading services, even allowing for a few resubmissions, and it appears that there are very few raw specimens left.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
IF silver gos to $60.00 an oz. it may be the savior for the collector base.
If silver goes to $60 an ounce, it may become too expensive for most collectors to complete silver eagle sets (or other silver sets) by date / mintmark / finish.
High bullion cost is part of the reason that platinum coins are not collected more widely.
$60 per ounce silver would make type collecting more attractive, because it would be more affordable. For silver eagles, the only beneficiary of this trend would be the 2006-P reverse proof.
My opinion only.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Add those submitted to the other grading services, even allowing for a few resubmissions, and it appears that there are very few raw specimens left.
Either that or there are a few "crack out artists" hard at work out there...
What are you getting at? Are you a naturalist like me? Sooner or later they will drool over intact casings and mint box.....wwwoooohhoooo hooo ha ha haaaaa!
Looking at eBay and eBay stores listings combined, for burnished 2006-W platinum (all denominations) I count 26 TPG individual coins and 6 TPG sets of four.
I see exactly one coin offered in original mint packaging!
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Single 1-ounce platinum – 1,500
Single half-ounce platinum – 1,025
Single quarter-ounce platinum - 850
Single tenth-ounce platinum – 2000
Four-coin platinum Set - 2775"
These numbers are old ..........for those who are interested in the latest story.................
The 2006-w unc platinum numbers quoted in Coin World were from late June and do not reference anyone at the mint by name. The June CW numbers do not fit the known weekly sales report data, the historical mint sales relationships for each denomination, or the denominational pop reports from PCGS and NGC, or the ebay sales relationships over the last 9 months, etc. More importantly the CW article prompted calls to the US mint Office of Public Affairs and the actual numbers were requested from the accounting office that deals with mintages to confirm the CW data. A report on the 2006-w unc plats was given to Michael White in July. It is the most recent report and can be confirmed.
The numbers were
$100 single issue... 1079
$50 single issue..... 588
$25 single issue..... 687
$10 single issue.... 1555
4 coin set ...............1989
If the CW numbers were right they should have shown up again in July. I have been watching the sales report for years now and have NEVER seen it wrong by more than about 6 percent. The CW numbers would require about 40 percent error in the weekly sales report. It is good practice to use the highest numbers around as worst case numbers when deciding what a coin is worth long term so you do not get hurt. Guys use the CW numbers as an unlikely worst case but realize the odds are stacked against them.
Wanted this data posted here so it will not get "lost".
Please forgive the novice question but is the 1999-w "key" gold eagle to which Eric referrs the $5 and $10 Gold Eagle "error" coins (i.e., were supposed to be proof finish but struck w/o proof finish) or is he referring to some other 1999-w such as the proof?
Thanks very much for the info.
Thanks Eric for your continued thoughtful, articulate and well researched insights.
The error coins were distributed along with the regular uncirculated bullion coins, but it was later discovered that some of them were "unfinished proofs" by virtue of them having a "W" mintmark, but no mirror finish. The regular uncirculated bullion coins didn't have a mintmark.
The regular proofs were issued separately by the Mint, and were regular mirror finish proofs, with a "W" mintmark, as usual.
I knew it would happen.
BTW you can count me in for 1 2006w unc $50 still in mint packaging.
Thanks for the info. I am still not clear whether Eric is referring to the 1999-w error coins or the 1999-w proof coins when he cites the 1999-w gold eagles as the keys to the set. Any clarification would be most appreicated.
Thanks!
<< <i>jmski52-
Thanks for the info. I am still not clear whether Eric is referring to the 1999-w error coins or the 1999-w proof coins when he cites the 1999-w gold eagles as the keys to the set. Any clarification would be most appreicated.
Thanks! >>
He is referring to the error coins "struck with unfinished proof dies"
Well, just Love coins, period.
have security blanket, as the Asians and some Europeans do,
Then it is up , up and away. The double kick is rarity ,as well as
a store house of absolute value. This is in part dependent on the continuation
of the devaluation of the dollar, inflation and world wide political instability.
Camelot
Wednesday February 21, 2007 3:16 PM
"anyone know how many of the 1999-W error there are? "
No one knows exactly all we can do is build a probable range.
We know that the budget purpose expected die life for Unc moderns gold eagles is and has been 6,000 per die set. We know that the coins have been carrying very high multiples of bullion value since issue. A very accelerated submission rate to the graders has resulted.
Its getting VERY HARD to find a roll these days and after about 7-8 years of scratching the market has only come up with 3,000 tenths and 2000 quarters. These rolls have a $30,000-$45,000 bounty on their head but they still are not coming to market. Of those 2 and 3 k that have shown up at the graders many of them are crack outs.
No one knows the exact number and more than likely we never will. Bare in mind that of the 21,000 known 2006-w $5 coins 4700 have shown up at the graders in 8 weeks because they are high premium coins. The market has only found 3000 of the 99-w mint state coins in 8 years .........and it isn't for lack of looking. Assuming that the market will continue to find these coins at the same rate it has been for the last 8 years it will take 45 more years to equal the 2006-w population. They are not going to find them at the same rate they have been for that long so its just not likely to happen......they are the MEGA keys to the modern Saints.
If the rolls run out somewhere in the 6-8 thousand range or less you better have them in hand when the last roll is gone.... and if half of them have already been found and the mintage in MS-69 ends up in the 4-6 thousand range then they could behave like the 1995 W proof silver eagle because the collector base compression ratios would be simmilar. If Julian is correct and they end up in the 3,000 -4,000 range then the coins are almost gone and they could turn into MEGA coins in the next few years.
Best I can do,
Eric
1/10 ounce plat unc on backorder
<< <i>The poor quality control for the 2007 W Unc. Plats makes for an interesting dilemma regarding the desicion to keep the boxes, eps. FS (absurd as this designation is) eligible boxes unopened for possible future sale or to open them in case a coin or coins are damaged. Has anyone left the boxes unopened? >>
I have some that i am fixin' to send in. If I get any back that look bad - 68's or something - I will buy new from Mint and swap out and send back. I have never received anything from the mint that wasn't a 69 and usually the only thing i see is luster break on the burnished gold - I got a proof plat last year with a hit on the nose. Could only see it with a glass.
Randy
This is a great question. I say no.
I think the answer for the final 2007 W Unc Mintage comes down to manufacturing production minimums and die wear when minting Platinum at the US Mint in West Point.
Lets assume in 2006 we had a Minimal Production Run for Burnished Platinum:
2006 W Unc Platinum Eagle Coin 4-coin set ...............1,989
$100 2006 W Unc Platinum Eagle Coin Total issue... 1,079 Single + 1,989 = 3,068
$50 2006 W Unc Platinum Eagle Coin Total issue..... 588 Single + 1,989 = 2,577
$25 2006 W Unc Platinum Eagle Coin Total issue..... 687 Single + 1,989 = 2,676
$10 2006 W Unc Platinum Eagle Coin Total issue.... 1,555 Single + 1,989 = 3,544
Anything over our Minimum that we see in 2007, will give us a clue if they went beyond the 2006 bench mark. I have noticed and perhaps other will concur, that the US Mint is apparently giving the Monday sales reporting to NN as a running sales number less returns, this year. Ass-u-me-ing this is the case, lets focus in on the $10 Coin.
Right now, for 2007, the Mint has sold 2,244 Singles! or almost 50% MORE coins than the enitire 2006 W single $10 coin run. That's alot of coins for this series. I think it is safe to assume the regular business bullion sales for plain Platinum BU have been taken by the burnished offering.
There is a previous post in this thread that states the number of strikes needed per coin for Platinum. It is quite high. Die wear is an issue here.
But if one can assume 1,555 ( 3,544 w/ sets) for the single/combined $10 coin issue in 2006 is accurate for a minimum set of budgeted dies, it appears to me that the US Mint has increased allocation for dies in 2007, thus producing a larger number of coins for inventory.
All we need now are sales, which should take a big jump this week for the series given the rise in Platinum prices.
Anyway, that's my take on the quick...
2007 W Unc Platinum $10 is back in Stock.
<< <i>Bingo!
2007 W Unc Platinum $10 is back in Stock. >>
Platinum down $20+ in Asia, unless this is a short correction we may run out of buyers for the 07s.
There is an Elliott wave tracker that says that a pullback is needed at this stage before we get the slingshot wave upwards in gold silver and platinum though
Thanks for the analysis, CoinBoy! I was focusing on the sales of $50, not the $10, so there are potentially many more of these around.
Eric
Week 12 Sales
12/11/2006 - 2006 W Uncirculated Platinum Eagle Sales
$10 - 3,264
$25 - 2,175
$50 - 2,078
$100 - 1,989
10/1/2007 - 2007 W Uncirculated Platinum Eagle Sales
$10 - 4,146
$25 - 2,398
$50 - 2,297
$100 - 2,646
Check out the difference between the 2006 and the 2007 $10! Also, look at the ounce!!!
Thank you CoinBoy for the numbers!
2007 $10 - 364 more coins sold dated 2007 over the total for 2006 (as of this date)
2007 $25 - 482 coins to go to match last year's total
2007 $50 - 508 coins to go to match last year's total
2007 $100 - 988 coins to go
These are the same stats after 12 weeks:
2007 $10 - 602 more coins sold dated 2007 over the total for 2006 (as of this date)
2007 $25 - 278 coins to go to match last year's total
2007 $50 - 280 coins to go to match last year's total
2007 $100 - 522 coins to go
Ericj96