Anyone see what John Albanese said about moderns..
Tonelover
Posts: 1,554 ✭
In the latest Rosen Numismatic Advisory letter? A little closed minded don't you think?
Rosen: What are the least attractive areas for a rare coin investor? Why pick those areas?
Albanese: If you would like to call modern coins an "area", this category should be avoided. Personally I don't even consider modern coins a "category". I would place them in the souvenir arena, similar to gas station tokens given to consumers in the 1950's and 60's. On the rare coin front, I would avoid several of the Top-100 coins, for example 1909-SVDB Cents in MS65-67 Red.
Rosen: This February marks the 20th anniversary of certification/slabbing. What changes/improvements would you want to see implemented for the entire grading process?
Albanese: The grading services should either immediately cease slabbing modern and bullion coins, or issue strong black-box warning labels on all of this trash. It should read something like, "This slab is harmful to your financial health and should be purchased for amusement purposes only".
Rosen: What are the least attractive areas for a rare coin investor? Why pick those areas?
Albanese: If you would like to call modern coins an "area", this category should be avoided. Personally I don't even consider modern coins a "category". I would place them in the souvenir arena, similar to gas station tokens given to consumers in the 1950's and 60's. On the rare coin front, I would avoid several of the Top-100 coins, for example 1909-SVDB Cents in MS65-67 Red.
Rosen: This February marks the 20th anniversary of certification/slabbing. What changes/improvements would you want to see implemented for the entire grading process?
Albanese: The grading services should either immediately cease slabbing modern and bullion coins, or issue strong black-box warning labels on all of this trash. It should read something like, "This slab is harmful to your financial health and should be purchased for amusement purposes only".
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Comments
But everyone is entitled to their own opinions. Even professionals.
This has to help limit speculative demand. Now if he'll just call modern coins "junk" or "crap" it would be perfect.
Dave
<< <i>Now if he'll just call modern coins "junk" or "crap" it would be perfect. >>
"Trash" not perfect enough for you?
a nice type 2 FDR Shell Mr President "coin".
It must be nice to be so wealthy you can collect high grade classics. ...or even XF's.
I'm disappointed. That was not a very spirited defense of moderns.
I guess caitlin paying 24k for this coin was wasted on modern crap?
I think some people are just born bitter..
<< <i>Cladking-
I'm disappointed. That was not a very spirited defense of moderns. >>
I'm saving the best for when this turns into a bashing thread.
I'm still insulted about the gas station souvenir thing though.
Russ, NCNE
edit to add:: course they're not graded
<< <i>I'm still insulted about the gas station souvenir thing though.
I admit, that was hitting below the belt.
Thousands of dollars for 50's, 60's, 70's coins just elude my cranium. Then to think that a 59 deep cameo frankie could be worth $5000. just makes me break into a cold sweat.
To each his own.
Ask yourself one question.......................what could this modern coin be sold/auctioned for if it were RAW............think about it.
Yes, I know most of you collect coins, not for the fun of completing sets, but for the potential financial reward.
Steve
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
<< <i>but what the heck does that dinosaur know about moderns? >>
Probably that he missed the boat, it's left the harbor and he can't swim.
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>
Ask yourself one question.......................what could this modern coin be sold/auctioned for if it were RAW............think about it. >>
Moderns were collected, bought, and sold long before the grading companies came around.
If the grading companies don't survive the coins will still be bought, sold and traded whether
anyone likes it or not. The fact that they are cheap compared to equally scarce classics simply
means they have a huge amount of room for growth and might provide many years of amusement
as some detractors will have ample time to eat their words.
While being careful in this area is certainly sound advice, it is a disservice to people to tell them
to avoid or ignore the hottest segment of the market simply because they could get burned. This
would seem to be especially true for someone purporting to give sound investment advice like
Albanese or reporting financial information like Rosen. It's also unfair to imply that modern coins
as a class are only saleable in the holder. This actually applies more to some of the classics than
to many of the moderns.
And whether you like, dislike, understand or don't understand moderns, I think its pretty hard to equate them with gas station tokens, isn't it?
<< <i>I often wonder if the MODERN prices would be where they are if there were no REGISTRY SETS.
Thousands of dollars for 50's, 60's, 70's coins just elude my cranium. Then to think that a 59 deep cameo frankie could be worth $5000. just makes me break into a cold sweat.
To each his own. >>
I tell you what, good luck finding a 59 Cameo Frankie..... Let alone a very scarce Deep Cameo......
search every proof set you can find, and lots of luck.........
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
About matters of taste there can be no disputing.
BUT - to criticize another person's taste can be perceived as rude. He is entitled to his opinion, but his remarks were quite provocative.
<< <i>I often wonder if the MODERN prices would be where they are if there were no REGISTRY SETS.
Thousands of dollars for 50's, 60's, 70's coins just elude my cranium. Then to think that a 59 deep cameo frankie could be worth $5000. just makes me break into a cold sweat.
To each his own. >>
Of course prices for moderns wouldn't be as high if there were no registry sets - but there ARE registry sets and if PCGS and NGC go out of business tomorrow, some other company will start registry sets - it is now a reality of the marketplace. Can't put the toothpaste back in the tube.
No one NEEDS rare coins, modern or classic. They are a luxury, a hobby, a discretionary purchase. As such, they are worth what someone is willing to pay. They have very little inherent value.
<< <i>
Thousands of dollars for 50's, 60's, 70's coins just elude my cranium. Then to think that a 59 deep cameo frankie could be worth $5000. just makes me break into a cold sweat. >>
I don't get it either. You can have a perfectly nice blazing PR67 CAM for $500, but somehow a DCAM is worth $5000? Condition rarities that are separated from their brethen by only one or two points just don't do it for me. If you can't explain it to a layman in one minute or less, I have little hope for any long term mass appeal. Take a classic coin for example which sells for 10x more going from EF or AU to Unc. You can show someone some EF/AU coins and some unc coins and they will figure it out pretty quickly. Sure, they could still be fooled by whizzing, cleaning, etc. but by and large the concept of luster is not hard to understand. Now, show the same person a handful of 66s and 67s and they will be completely mystified.
I'm not saying don't collect moderns, if that's what you like then go for it. Just be darn sure you know what you are doing and understand the market on BOTH the buy and sell side before you invest serious dough.
<< <i>If you can't explain it to a layman in one minute or less, I have little hope for any long term mass appeal. >>
It is simple to see the difference, just look at the label.
Just an observation.
Me too....I dont' understand how it happened. But I think it will change and change drastically the other way. Did we all miss the boat? Of course. None of us saw that coming. The modern guys who happened to be there scored nicely. Then again......none of us
saw the Tulip or beannie baby crazes either. We missed out and 'lost" money by not participating.
Don't worry, bread and butter type coins will be back. They are just late to the party. I happen to agree with John but don't begrudge the modern guys their day in the sun and fabulous profits earned so far.......as long as they can retain them. John probably missed the boat on key date coins (ie 09sVDB)....so did I. But the risk in that coin now is significant. I'll stick to other areas where the risk is less.
He doesn't consider the coin a 'modern" but merely not a good long term value over the next several years.
roadrunner
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>Where's the popcorn? >>
Here you go Tom. I'll share.
Wondercoin
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
For what it's worth, it was an RNA issue in the late summer of 2002 that got me interested in hopping on to gold. Prior to then I owned not one single gold coin. Maurice was interviewing Jim Sinclair who I did not know of up to that time. The fact that Sinclair was very big on a new gold boom coming to fruition was enlightening. At that time 2 of his key factors were not yet in place. They fell into alignment in the next year or so. The fact that he supported his statements with an example like the $150 TRILLON derivatives junk market was news to me. Unregulated and non-covered OTC derivatives? Sounded like a scam to me. Protection was warranted. I joined the gold wagon in September of 2002 just prior to gold breaking over $330. And I thank the RNA for that great insight and tip. Otherwise I'd still be here not owning a single gold coin. I must say I have profited just fine from the advice in the RNA because it provided the reasoning why gold had to eventually regain its former dominance as the one true currency.
roadrunner
<< <i>Not only Albanese but all the other interviewed dealers in that Crystal Ball survey say the same thing. it's been like that for the past 5 years or more. So what's new? I'm sure Maurice and the others are puzzled as to how Moderns have done very well while leaving bread and butter type coins in the dust the past 5 years.
Me too....I dont' understand how it happened. But I think it will change and change drastically the other way. Did we all miss the boat? Of course. None of us saw that coming. The modern guys who happened to be there scored nicely. Then again......none of us
saw the Tulip or beannie baby crazes either. We missed out and 'lost" money by not participating.
Don't worry, bread and butter type coins will be back. They are just late to the party. I happen to agree with John but don't begrudge the modern guys their day in the sun and fabulous profits earned so far.......as long as they can retain them. John probably missed the boat on key date coins (ie 09sVDB)....so did I. But the risk in that coin now is significant. I'll stick to other areas where the risk is less.
He doesn't consider the coin a 'modern" but merely not a good long term value over the next several years.
roadrunner >>
I don't believe the "bread and butter" coins were ever "out" or ever will be.
What many people seem to be missing is that moderns are real coins and are in the process of
becoming "bread and butter" coins. The prices of the scarcities is still a small fraction of the price
for equivalent classics. There's no certainty that they'll ever achieve parity but if they do it will be
at far higher prices than they are today.
Interest is growing in these coins because they have been so overlooked to date and because the
extreme success of many of the classics have priced them out of the reach of newbies and less well-
heeled collectors. This interest is very broadbased and very large. There are millions of new collect-
ors filling albums and folders from circulation. There tens of millions searching their pocket change for
the latest state quarter or newest nickel. These activities mean very little to the price of something
like a 1969 mint set but many of these collectors will become advanced and many of these will complete
unc or proof sets of moderns. The simple fact is that there are far fewer of these coins available than
is necessary to supply a mass market. This means collectors will have to refuse to pay a tiny premium
for coins like a '74 dime or they'll bid it up until it's out of their comfort level. Unless you believe these collectors
won't pay more than a couple dollars this leaves vast room for growth from current levels. While this
may not apply to pop tops and the like, one still has to wonder what the finest coin of a date might sell
for if there are several million people collecting that series.
Albanese may not understand that whatever the future holds, the moderns will be part of the past and
there will be people interested in the coins. The fact that he detests the coins and considers them crap
is more likely to spur people to collect than deter them.
<< <i>Text >>
BRAVO!
Modern coins are like penny stocks: most people will lose "investment" money dabbling or impulse-buying. But, take the time to do real research and grab scarce-for-grade modern coins whose pop is not increasing even as their value climbs and you may just be buying the classics of the future, maybe the near future..... Rob
Questions about Ikes? Go to The IKE GROUP WEB SITE
<< <i>That kind of attitude seems very unprofessional from a perceived industry leader. Does QDB spew such venom at market segements he does not prefer? >>
Apparently John Albanese is spokesman for the SS Republic project.
<< <i>
<< <i>That kind of attitude seems very unprofessional from a perceived industry leader. Does QDB spew such venom at market segements he does not prefer? >>
Apparently John Albanese is spokesman for the SS Republic project. >>
In what capacity? I would hope he would not tout the "shipwreck effect" seated halves as good investments.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>That kind of attitude seems very unprofessional from a perceived industry leader. Does QDB spew such venom at market segements he does not prefer? >>
Apparently John Albanese is spokesman for the SS Republic project. >>
In what capacity? I would hope he would not tout the "shipwreck effect" seated halves as good investments. >>
I don't think there is anything wrong with this and don't know anything except this.
Same stuff, different day. It makes more sense to see enough moderns submitted to prove their availability in most grades. Obviously, NGC reversed that decision.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
(underpriced and lagging the market). Type used to be one of the first things to go. Moderns? I know little about them and just do not have the trust. To those that do, more power to you. Here's 3 less people you have to compete against it.
Clad, I have to disagree, but type has been sort of out it the past 2 years. There are various reasons but it has not been a great money maker for dealers. Even Legend pared down their type inventory and moved more into gold, key dates, nickel type, and Lincolns.
This was not by mere chance. when type finally bursts wide open, in all grades, then you'll see those major players back bigtime in those areas. They haven't left but have backed off considerably.
roadrunner
Complete 20 coin set of American Silver Eagles in NGC 70 - $36,000
<< <i>certainly Albanese has other interests he has to support and stump for. But I know that Type is bread and butter and has been in the last few major coin moves......but not yet this time. The market will not go to full bloom w/o type. Albanese, Rosen, and myself all agree on this one. I'm comfortable with type and have followed it closely for 25 years. I'll stick with what I know and what has yet to move
(underpriced and lagging the market). Type used to be one of the first things to go. Moderns? I know little about them and just do not have the trust. To those that do, more power to you. Here's 3 less people you have to compete against it.
Clad, I have to disagree, but type has been sort of out it the past 2 years. There are various reasons but it has not been a great money maker for dealers. Even Legend pared down their type inventory and moved more into gold, key dates, nickel type, and Lincolns.
This was not by mere chance. when type finally bursts wide open, in all grades, then you'll see those major players back bigtime in those areas. They haven't left but have backed off considerably.
roadrunner >>
I'll certainly defer to your assessment of the type market. What I meant was simply that type coins
are great coins and a great collectible and this has always been true. But by the same token, "type"
now also includes things like clad dimes and bicentennial quarters. History is a moving thing even if
it did appear to stop for a couple generations in numismatics.
While, I too, have some respect for Rosen, he has bashed moderns before. Indeed, if memory serves
there were very uncomplimentary comments about them in a Coin World letter to the editor.
Many people didn't like moderns when they sold for face value and like them no more now.
Coins are decreasingly an important component of commerce. The US Mint's commemoratives, proofs and bullion programs are nothing more than the Franklin Mint's junk with the Treasury Dept's stamp on it. Mint sets are not much different than proof sets, just different different striking characteristics. It is all seigniorage, a term people need to get a grip on. The mint produces "coins" that have virtually zero commercial potential. They are not designed in any way to enter the channels of commerce. Hell, they make money off of the common 1 cent coin, minting them far beyond the genuine need. (I have been an advocate for dropping down to one decimal digit precision for years.)
When you collect moderns, you are effectively assuming a nonsensical seigniorage tax of ridiculous proportions. This all really got started in a big way with the bicentennial coinage. How are they looking after 30 years? Great appreciation, huh? John Albanese said what shouldn't have needed saying but is not sinking in. Yes, enjoy the state quarters and your set of PR69 Sac dollars (both nice and all), but don't cry when you don't get rich off of them. They truly are numismatic junk.
The key has been and always will be, buy rarity that has a somewhat constant demand. One 1804 dollar that has been cleaned will outperform a complete set of PR70 and MS70 coins minted from 1980 to the present, or whatever the equivalent is.
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