"BUYER BEWARE" statements! What a great way to bring everyone back to a common level of playground for the hobby! This is really needed before the hype shoots itself in the foot.........so to speak.
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
<< <i>I applaud him for saying the abundantly obvious.
Coins are decreasingly an important component of commerce. The US Mint's commemoratives, proofs and bullion programs are nothing more than the Franklin Mint's junk with the Treasury Dept's stamp on it. Mint sets are not much different than proof sets, just different different striking characteristics. It is all seigniorage, a term people need to get a grip on. The mint produces "coins" that have virtually zero commercial potential. They are not designed in any way to enter the channels of commerce. Hell, they make money off of the common 1 cent coin, minting them far beyond the genuine need. (I have been an advocate for dropping down to one decimal digit precision for years.)
When you collect moderns, you are effectively assuming a nonsensical seigniorage tax of ridiculous proportions. This all really got started in a big way with the bicentennial coinage. How are they looking after 30 years? Great appreciation, huh? John Albanese said what shouldn't have needed saying but is not sinking in. Yes, enjoy the state quarters and your set of PR69 Sac dollars (both nice and all), but don't cry when you don't get rich off of them. They truly are numismatic junk.
The key has been and always will be, buy rarity that has a somewhat constant demand. One 1804 dollar that has been cleaned will outperform a complete set of PR70 and MS70 coins minted from 1980 to the present, or whatever the equivalent is. >>
ROFL.
So a clad quarter is really only worth about 3.5c and we collectors are deluding ourselves when we pay face value for them. I guess those toned Morgans are worth about $5 in silver and the silly 1804 dollars are similar. I'd rather pay a few hundred for 3c than millions for $5.
You might want to check out what gem bicentennial coins are selling for now days. A '76 dollar can go for upward of $10,000 but I guess that's just evidence of the ever greater fool theory.
Cladking, surely you know 1804 dollars will outperform a complete set of PR70 and MS70 coins minted from 1980 to the present, or whatever the equivalent is.
Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
What are the issues?: If it is a risk/reward topic, then listening to tried and true survivors and succesful numismatic entrepreneurs like John Albanese is worth your consideration. Endorsement by Rosen and Roadrunner doesn't hurt my assessment. It is also IMHO common sense. If it is about collecting what you enjoy or selling what you got, then do and enjoy your thing. I enjoy collecting classic and modern although I pay premium for gem "RARE COINS" and have never paid premiums for unrare coins. In the end,value always wins out. Happy collecting!
I suspect that if I had substantial expertise in moderns, there would be many issues that I would happily stockpile as a long term investmemt. I also suspect that I would avoid far more issues than I would chase. However, I have no expertise in the field so my opinion on the coins' investment potential is of little value.
I wonder how many of the Rosen Numismatic Advisory contributors are experts on moderns?
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>I believe the Mr. Albanese being discussed here is a relative of the NGC Mr. Albanese, but is in no way connected with that firm himself.
John Albanese is brilliant - ignore him at your own risk. He was a founder at PCGS, left to found NGC and later sold his shares to Mark Salzberg. He is in business for himself [also the chief buyer for a major coin firm] and remains very in touch with the market.
Collect what you like, but if your money matters to you then you need to pay attention to learned opinions. John's opinions are one that I would always listen to intently. >>
TDN you aren't seriously suggesting that we consider what Albanese has to say versus what is posted here?
I have a friend that collects only old Roman. Greek coins you know 200 to 100 BC or 50 to 200 AD, he thinks anything over 1000 AD is modern crap. Oh well to each his own.
I read Rosen N. Ad. for it's investment angle, not as a collector. I bought a number of Saints (my only gold ever) based these opinions 2 years ago and that advice has paid for the $48 subscription many, many times over!! However he's wrong about moderns-- if you spend the time to select rarer denomination premium superb gems at face, submit them and save them at cost, they might someday be worth serious money. And if they all turn out to be common/inexpensive someday then at least you have some lovely coins you "made" yourself.
Notwithstanding Mr. Albanese's point of view, the following should be a reasonable truism:
If any collector wants to collect without putting too much of his "marbles" into one basket, he should not put more than 50% into "moderns."
Any collector of classics should also heed the same truism in not putting more than 50% into one area as well.
Certainly, coin collectors will squawk at this truism but just remember while you might be pure collectors for the fun of it, your family deserves a more responsible approach towards coin collecting since it is your responsibility not to trash your family's money that they might need in the future even though it may be truly discretionary monies today.
My only concern about those who collect "moderns" are the ones who overdo it at the rate of putting 100% of their discretionary funds into moderns. 50% should be the limit. Your family deserves it.
Thanks to questor for helping me find a stupid grammar error!
Always took candy from strangers Didn't wanna get me no trade Never want to be like papa Working for the boss every night and day --"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
<< <i>Notwithstanding Mr. Albanese's point of view, the following should be a reasonable altruism:
If any collector wants to collect without putting too much of his "marbles" into one basket, he should not put more than 50% into "moderns."
Any collector of classics should also heed the same altruism in not putting more than 50% into one area as well.
Certainly, coin collectors will squawk at this altruism but just remember while you might be pure collectors for the fun of it, your family deserves a more responsible approach towards coin collecting since it is your responsibility not to trash your family's money that they might need in the future even though it may be truly discretionary monies today.
My only concern about those who collect "moderns" are the ones who overdo it at the rate of putting 100% of their discretionary funds into moderns. 50% should be the limit. Your family deserves it. >>
I understand that but his comments have a broader scope than just for investment and you know as well as I do that his comments will be used by those with anti-modern agendas. It just seems that some people (being rhetorical here) will not be happy until they destroy the enjoyment of those who collect moderns. And I, for one, am getting tired of the elitism.
Neil's right. It would be the death of the hobby should anyone listen. The market's growth has been driven by mint promotion, middle-aged kids returning to the market, and the TPGs. Those kids are the guys building registry sets with 20th century coins and occasional type. Notice how many people on the board are 50'ish? Notice what they collect? David Hall's/PCGS's marketing genius is their inclusion of moderns. They would have buried NGC if NGC had maintained the no moderns attitude. We ARE chatting on the PCGS boards. If there are 20,000 folks collecting clasics, there are 2,000,000 collecting moderns. If you kill interest in moderns, the engine that brings fresh classic buyers to the market dies.
Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>Personally I don't even consider modern coins a "category". I would place them in the souvenir arena, similar to gas station tokens given to consumers in the 1950's and 60's. >>
I'd sure like to know more about these gas station tokens.
The key is convincing the modern collector to branch out when they acquire the knowledge to do do and limit new acquisitions of moderns to no more than 50% of their total new purchases.
The modern collector will be the collector of classics in the future one way or the other!
Colelctors of "moderns" DO NOT CARE that there are millions and millions of other coins at face value ALMOST just like the one they have.
Collectors of "classics" value absolute rarity over condition rarity and the idea of HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS of simmilar coins makes them cringe.
Although I do not collect moderns, I also cannot afford the "classics" I want to purchase so I am glad there is somethig inexpensive for people to collect.
Now, the HIGH prices for coins with mintages in the HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS? Yes: To me that is crazy but again, in the government's eyes, the coins are ALL worth just face value!
<< <i>I believe the Mr. Albanese being discussed here is a relative of the NGC Mr. Albanese, but is in no way connected with that firm himself.
John Albanese is brilliant - ignore him at your own risk. He was a founder at PCGS, left to found NGC and later sold his shares to Mark Salzberg. He is in business for himself [also the chief buyer for a major coin firm] and remains very in touch with the market.
Collect what you like, but if your money matters to you then you need to pay attention to learned opinions. John's opinions are one that I would always listen to intently. >>
I've never met anyone so brilliant he couldn't be wrong. Even a glance at his comments seems to reveal much more about how he feels about moderns and collecting them than it does about the condition of the market or where it may be headed. Prognostication is a pretty tricky business in any case so it would hardly seem a wonder why a seer who hates these coins and totally fails to see their move might have a sour grapes attitude.
Collectors enjoy collecting these coins. They don't need investment advice or even the promise of future profit. And herein lies much of the allure of these coins. Newbies may not know they're off the beaten track but they still benefit from it.
<< <i>Attitudes like Albanese's and those with similar opinions will be the leading cause of death for this hobby. >>
Mr. Albanese was speaking against modern coins as INVESTMENTS, not COLLECTIBLES. This "hobby" is, or at least should be about the latter, not the former.
I don't believe Mr. Albanese has any problems with or said anything negative about moderns as "collectibles". Therefore, those who are offended by his comments are probably focused on "investing" and not "collecting" and might not even be aware of it (yet). >>
He compared them to gas station premiums!!! That's a pretty strong condemnation of them. While it's simply ludicrous to believe a well worn 1965 quarter is in any way similar to a Shell Mr President token this is what he'd use to define all modern coins.
It appears you're turning this around. It's Mr Albanese and classics that are the subject of investment here. Let's hope he is successful at keeping "investment" dollars out of moderns.
I think Albanese is one of the top Dealers out there. One angle he seems to forget about modern junk is this - if a person were to put away $100 of modern junk each month - in about 2 years they could cash their hoard in and buy one of the Albanese treasures.
Mind you, $2400.00 wouldn't buy much, but at least a person would be one step away from modern junk.
<< <i>Personally I don't even consider modern coins a "category". I would place them in the souvenir arena, similar to gas station tokens given to consumers in the 1950's and 60's. >>
I'd sure like to know more about these gas station tokens. >>
There's a wide range of these mostly small aluminum tokens from the late '60's onward. They were given out with a fill-up and usually if you could collect a complete set there was a substantial prize. Many of these would be issued in limited numbers to make them challenging to find and some would be issued in tiny numbers to control the number of win- ners. Curiously some of the common issues are more difficult to find than you'd expect and the rare ones seem to be non-existent. Perhaps they still exist in the hands of the promoter, but it's been many years and one wonders if they exist at all.
It is demeaning to these wonderful old collectibles to compare them to modern crap.
The truth is that many of those posting here have the know how to buy and sell moderns, thye know the game and how it is played.
However the majority of those buying moderns are doing so because they were introduced to it by a marketing campaign or some salesman. The markups on modern coins to the general public are insane and chances of the average person making money on this material ( except by accident) are about as close to zero as you can get.
Try to sell your moderns back to many of those selling this stuff and you will quickly learn just how bad it is. Many times they won't even make an offer! It's just cheaper to buy it raw, slab it and sell it rather than to make a two way market.
Look at the prices they get for this stuff on TV, it's absolutely crazy and these guys are by far the biggest sellers of certfied moderns. Do you really think these people have any shot of making money at all?
Albanese is sharp, he is probably trying to deflate the auction price of the 60-D nickel so he can get it cheap and re-sell it----------------------BigE
<< <i>They don't need investment advice or even the promise of future profit.
More power to the collectors. John's advice was given to an investment newsletter and should be taken in that context. >>
Agreed. And in that context I have less problem with it. Even the most casual reader will see that his comments are more emotional than the result of study or special know- ledge.
Even so one is left to ponder whether this is a new position on moderns caused by the torrid advances to date or if it has been effect since we were getting the coins at face value. Perhaps if he had included what his stand on these all along has been it could be taken a little more seriously.
Mr. Albanese was speaking against modern coins as INVESTMENTS, not COLLECTIBLES . . .
Ditto. Besides, Albanese was quoted in a private, subscriber-only newsletter that is well-respected in "classic U.S. numismatic" circles. Unless the Q&A was released by RNA for all to see, I sorta question posting any quotes here without Albanese's and/or Rosen's permission.
You will never see me bash collectors of modern coins. There are lots of historically interesting, beautiful issues being produced by the Mint in recent years. Collect what you want. But I'll also be the first to issue a strong caution against taking a traditional "buy and hold" investment approach to these ultra-grade slabbed moderns that currently sell for huge premiums.
Todd L. Imhof Partner / Executive VP Heritage Auctions
Look at the prices they get for this stuff on TV, it's absolutely crazy and these guys are by far the biggest sellers of certfied moderns. Do you really think these people have any shot of making money at all?
So then instead of TPG labels warning against moderns, they should warn against buying coins on TV? Or more to the point, maybe the label should say "Warning! Idiots should not buy coins." Please. Guppies will usually lose money, even if they're buying classics. Smart buyers will usually make money, even if they're buying moderns.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Any body here remember the great fund fueled market of 88-91 ?
Common Walkers in 65 bid @350.00,how much today 135.00 ?
i came back in early last year after watching Coin Vault starring Jim Beeyu and Boy Blunder and no i didnt buy anything from them,started buying the SHQ proof and mint sets,got em all and got bored,figured id put together a nice little birth year set for 1957 (mine,notice im near smack dad middle road boomer) to give my kid later on.
So i start picking up overgraded and raw crap off the bay till i learned my lessons the hard way.
Now i have 2,1957 registry sets,working on 1956,1958,1961,1964 and a complete year set for 1991 (the kids birth year) maybe its all modern crap ™but some of those coins are dang low pops even after 20 years of TPG services extant.
So perhaps my collection has some investment potential down the road,does that make me a collestor,invector,investor,or Collector ?
Leads me to my new set,1857 in circ grades,very long term project and will require butt loads of capitol to complete,suspect this is more in line with what Albanese was saying about modern crap™
I'd actually like to hear some Modern Investors' ideas to a Rosen Question--" Two sophisicated INVESTORS come to you to INVEST for the long term. One has $10,000, the other has $100,000. Each wants just a few coins. What do you recommend and why??"
To help modern investors get started I'll give part of Scott Travers' answer--" I view most areas of the coin market to be fully priced at this time....I expect classic gold and generic gold to increase impressively anyway and become even significantly MORE overpriced. (Rosen Num. Adv., available at $28/ 6mo. --and excellant buy IMHO by the way)
<< <i>The truth is that many of those posting here have the know how to buy and sell moderns, thye know the game and how it is played.
However the majority of those buying moderns are doing so because they were introduced to it by a marketing campaign or some salesman. The markups on modern coins to the general public are insane and chances of the average person making money on this material ( except by accident) are about as close to zero as you can get. >>
I don't know that this is true and really suspect it isn't. The hobby has never really embraced moderns. Oh sure there are specific areas that have been popular right along but I can't recall seeing glossy folders offering rolls of 1973 proof nickels or un- opened boxes of 1986 mint sets. I rarely even see big offers of moderns with more demand like silver eagles being offered as the next big thing.
It seems more to the not so casual observer that the hobby is even reluctant to re- spond to continuing demand. Bob Vila even has to sell moderns since there are relatively few places that one can go to get the coins. The same thing happens at NBC and other non-traditional venues. The shopping channels simply constitute anot- her non-traditional place to buy coins. While much of what is said on these programs needs to be heavily discounted it is accurate when they say they are the leading sell- er of certified silver eagles. This didn't happen because they wanted to push these coins on an unsuspecting public, it happened because there was a vacuum that they stepped in to fill. The demand existed but there was no one to satisfy it. And it's much like this across the board; traditional numismatics has a visceral hatred for these coins and have simply avoided them in all forms for two generations.
<< <i> Try to sell your moderns back to many of those selling this stuff and you will quickly learn just how bad it is. Many times they won't even make an offer! It's just cheaper to buy it raw, slab it and sell it rather than to make a two way market.
>>
The market for moderns is very thin and a large number of dealers feel very similarly to Albanese about the value and collectibility of these coins. If you take one into their shop they will make exceedingly weak offers because they probably have no knowledge and no customers.
It's certainly true that some coins are being slabbed that are not very scarce and finding a buyer when it comes time to sell can be difficult but this hardly applies to all moderns. Many of these coins enjoy a healthy two-way market even if it is a niche market.
>" Two sophisicated INVESTORS come to you to INVEST for the long term. One has $10,000, the other has $100,000. Each wants just a few coins. What do you recommend and why??"
I'd recommend not investing in coins at all. But if one must invest, I'd always say the same thing: search out the best that you're interested in, do your research to make sure that it's a good deal, and then buy smart and don't just buy. Same advice works for stocks and other investments.
Back in '99, the "old dinosaurs" of wall street were saying that these new valuations of stock in all these "new Economy" internet companies were unreasonable, that "new investors" were paying too much for these stocks, as they went higher and higher, and were predicting that many would decline in value when the bubble burst.
and also, back in '99, the "new players" were poo-pooing the sage words of these old guys who "just didn't get it" with their old fashioned ideas about how a company should be valued. "this time it's different!" they said.
the "old dinosaurs" were not intending to hurt the feelings of the new players; on the contrary, they were offering a warning about paying too much for hype and "story", while discounting the old measures of "quality" and "value"
"So then instead of TPG labels warning against moderns, they should warn against buying coins on TV? Or more to the point, maybe the label should say "Warning! Idiots should not buy coins." Please. Guppies will usually lose money, even if they're buying classics. Smart buyers will usually make money, even if they're buying moderns. "
facts;
The markups in general on classics are far less than moderns-
The resale market for classic coins is far more available and liquid than that of moderns, it's not even a close call.
maybe a warning should be put on modern holders that says
" buying this modern piece of crap can be hazardous to your financial health"
"It's certainly true that some coins are being slabbed that are not very scarce and finding a buyer when it comes time to sell can be difficult but this hardly applies to all moderns. Many of these coins enjoy a healthy two-way market even if it is a niche market. "
I agree, there are exceptions. I also have no problem with anyone that COLLECTS moderns because they enjoy them.
Comments
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
<< <i>I applaud him for saying the abundantly obvious.
Coins are decreasingly an important component of commerce. The US Mint's commemoratives, proofs and bullion programs are nothing more than the Franklin Mint's junk with the Treasury Dept's stamp on it. Mint sets are not much different than proof sets, just different different striking characteristics. It is all seigniorage, a term people need to get a grip on. The mint produces "coins" that have virtually zero commercial potential. They are not designed in any way to enter the channels of commerce. Hell, they make money off of the common 1 cent coin, minting them far beyond the genuine need. (I have been an advocate for dropping down to one decimal digit precision for years.)
When you collect moderns, you are effectively assuming a nonsensical seigniorage tax of ridiculous proportions. This all really got started in a big way with the bicentennial coinage. How are they looking after 30 years? Great appreciation, huh? John Albanese said what shouldn't have needed saying but is not sinking in. Yes, enjoy the state quarters and your set of PR69 Sac dollars (both nice and all), but don't cry when you don't get rich off of them. They truly are numismatic junk.
The key has been and always will be, buy rarity that has a somewhat constant demand. One 1804 dollar that has been cleaned will outperform a complete set of PR70 and MS70 coins minted from 1980 to the present, or whatever the equivalent is. >>
ROFL.
So a clad quarter is really only worth about 3.5c and we collectors are deluding ourselves when
we pay face value for them. I guess those toned Morgans are worth about $5 in silver and the
silly 1804 dollars are similar. I'd rather pay a few hundred for 3c than millions for $5.
You might want to check out what gem bicentennial coins are selling for now days. A '76 dollar
can go for upward of $10,000 but I guess that's just evidence of the ever greater fool theory.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
If it is a risk/reward topic, then listening to tried and true survivors and succesful numismatic entrepreneurs like John Albanese is worth your consideration. Endorsement by Rosen and Roadrunner doesn't hurt my assessment. It is also IMHO common sense.
If it is about collecting what you enjoy or selling what you got, then do and enjoy your thing. I enjoy collecting classic and modern although I pay premium for gem "RARE COINS" and have never paid premiums for unrare coins. In the end,value always wins out.
Happy collecting!
I guess I was just ahead of the pack.
Question: was Albanese stillan owner at
NGC when they started to slab a bunch of "modern crap"?
Seems like biting the hand, and all that.
Check out my current listings: https://ebay.com/sch/khunt/m.html?_ipg=200&_sop=12&_rdc=1
I wonder how many of the Rosen Numismatic Advisory contributors are experts on moderns?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>I believe the Mr. Albanese being discussed here is a relative of the NGC Mr. Albanese, but is in no way connected with that firm himself.
John Albanese is brilliant - ignore him at your own risk. He was a founder at PCGS, left to found NGC and later sold his shares to Mark Salzberg. He is in business for himself [also the chief buyer for a major coin firm] and remains very in touch with the market.
Collect what you like, but if your money matters to you then you need to pay attention to learned opinions. John's opinions are one that I would always listen to intently. >>
TDN you aren't seriously suggesting that we consider what Albanese has to say versus what is posted here?
<< <i>Good. The more dealers with that attitude the better. I hope he spreads the word!
Russ, NCNE >>
I agree with you Russ!
If any collector wants to collect without putting too much of his "marbles" into one basket, he should not put more than 50% into "moderns."
Any collector of classics should also heed the same truism in not putting more than 50% into one area as well.
Certainly, coin collectors will squawk at this truism but just remember while you might be pure collectors for the fun of it, your family deserves a more responsible approach towards coin collecting since it is your responsibility not to trash your family's money that they might need in the future even though it may be truly discretionary monies today.
My only concern about those who collect "moderns" are the ones who overdo it at the rate of putting 100% of their discretionary funds into moderns. 50% should be the limit. Your family deserves it.
Thanks to questor for helping me find a stupid grammar error!
Didn't wanna get me no trade
Never want to be like papa
Working for the boss every night and day
--"Happy", by the Rolling Stones (1972)
Run a poll on that one and you may be surprised at the results.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
One of the 10 best quotes of the 21st century!
Well, that does it for me! Looks like I`ll have a 20th. century set for sale........( modern crap )
SM1 calls me a troublemaker....
--------------------------------------------
Sunday August 19, 2007 9:17AM
A mentor awarded " YOU SUCK!!"
<< <i>Notwithstanding Mr. Albanese's point of view, the following should be a reasonable altruism:
If any collector wants to collect without putting too much of his "marbles" into one basket, he should not put more than 50% into "moderns."
Any collector of classics should also heed the same altruism in not putting more than 50% into one area as well.
Certainly, coin collectors will squawk at this altruism but just remember while you might be pure collectors for the fun of it, your family deserves a more responsible approach towards coin collecting since it is your responsibility not to trash your family's money that they might need in the future even though it may be truly discretionary monies today.
My only concern about those who collect "moderns" are the ones who overdo it at the rate of putting 100% of their discretionary funds into moderns. 50% should be the limit. Your family deserves it. >>
Do you mean "truism" rather than "altruism"?
<< <i> A little closed minded don't you think? >>
Closed-minded, short-sighted, unknowlegeable, pompous, silly and clueless all seem to apply.
My icon IS my coin. It is a gem 1949 FBL Franklin.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>Personally I don't even consider modern coins a "category". I would place them in the souvenir arena, similar to gas station tokens given to consumers in the 1950's and 60's. >>
I'd sure like to know more about these gas station tokens.
U.S. Nickels Complete Set with Major Varieties, Circulation Strikes
U.S. Dimes Complete Set with Major Varieties, Circulation Strikes
The key is convincing the modern collector to branch out when they acquire the knowledge to do do and limit new acquisitions of moderns to no more than 50% of their total new purchases.
The modern collector will be the collector of classics in the future one way or the other!
Colelctors of "moderns" DO NOT CARE that there are millions and millions of other coins at face value ALMOST just like the one they have.
Collectors of "classics" value absolute rarity over condition rarity and the idea of HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS of simmilar coins makes them cringe.
Although I do not collect moderns, I also cannot afford the "classics" I want to purchase so I am glad there is somethig inexpensive for people to collect.
Now, the HIGH prices for coins with mintages in the HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS? Yes: To me that is crazy but again, in the government's eyes, the coins are ALL worth just face value!
<< <i>I believe the Mr. Albanese being discussed here is a relative of the NGC Mr. Albanese, but is in no way connected with that firm himself.
John Albanese is brilliant - ignore him at your own risk. He was a founder at PCGS, left to found NGC and later sold his shares to Mark Salzberg. He is in business for himself [also the chief buyer for a major coin firm] and remains very in touch with the market.
Collect what you like, but if your money matters to you then you need to pay attention to learned opinions. John's opinions are one that I would always listen to intently. >>
I've never met anyone so brilliant he couldn't be wrong. Even a glance at his comments
seems to reveal much more about how he feels about moderns and collecting them than
it does about the condition of the market or where it may be headed. Prognostication is
a pretty tricky business in any case so it would hardly seem a wonder why a seer who hates
these coins and totally fails to see their move might have a sour grapes attitude.
Collectors enjoy collecting these coins. They don't need investment advice or even the
promise of future profit. And herein lies much of the allure of these coins. Newbies may
not know they're off the beaten track but they still benefit from it.
<< <i>
<< <i>Attitudes like Albanese's and those with similar opinions will be the leading cause of death for this hobby. >>
Mr. Albanese was speaking against modern coins as INVESTMENTS, not COLLECTIBLES. This "hobby" is, or at least should be about the latter, not the former.
I don't believe Mr. Albanese has any problems with or said anything negative about moderns as "collectibles". Therefore, those who are offended by his comments are probably focused on "investing" and not "collecting" and might not even be aware of it (yet). >>
He compared them to gas station premiums!!! That's a pretty strong condemnation of them.
While it's simply ludicrous to believe a well worn 1965 quarter is in any way similar to a Shell
Mr President token this is what he'd use to define all modern coins.
It appears you're turning this around. It's Mr Albanese and classics that are the subject of
investment here. Let's hope he is successful at keeping "investment" dollars out of moderns.
Mind you, $2400.00 wouldn't buy much, but at least a person would be one step away from modern junk.
<< <i>
<< <i>Personally I don't even consider modern coins a "category". I would place them in the souvenir arena, similar to gas station tokens given to consumers in the 1950's and 60's. >>
I'd sure like to know more about these gas station tokens.
There's a wide range of these mostly small aluminum tokens from the late '60's onward.
They were given out with a fill-up and usually if you could collect a complete set there
was a substantial prize. Many of these would be issued in limited numbers to make them
challenging to find and some would be issued in tiny numbers to control the number of win-
ners. Curiously some of the common issues are more difficult to find than you'd expect
and the rare ones seem to be non-existent. Perhaps they still exist in the hands of the
promoter, but it's been many years and one wonders if they exist at all.
It is demeaning to these wonderful old collectibles to compare them to modern crap.
Er... ...ah, you know what I mean.
However the majority of those buying moderns are doing so because they were introduced to it by a marketing campaign or some salesman. The markups on modern coins to the general public are insane and chances of the average person making money on this material ( except by accident) are about as close to zero as you can get.
Try to sell your moderns back to many of those selling this stuff and you will quickly learn just how bad it is. Many times they won't even make an offer! It's just cheaper to buy it raw, slab it and sell it rather than to make a two way market.
Look at the prices they get for this stuff on TV, it's absolutely crazy and these guys are by far the biggest sellers of certfied moderns. Do you really think these people have any shot of making money at all?
<< <i>They don't need investment advice or even the promise of future profit.
More power to the collectors. John's advice was given to an investment newsletter and should be taken in that context. >>
Agreed. And in that context I have less problem with it. Even the most casual reader
will see that his comments are more emotional than the result of study or special know-
ledge.
Even so one is left to ponder whether this is a new position on moderns caused by the
torrid advances to date or if it has been effect since we were getting the coins at face
value. Perhaps if he had included what his stand on these all along has been it could
be taken a little more seriously.
Ditto. Besides, Albanese was quoted in a private, subscriber-only newsletter that is well-respected in "classic U.S. numismatic" circles. Unless the Q&A was released by RNA for all to see, I sorta question posting any quotes here without Albanese's and/or Rosen's permission.
You will never see me bash collectors of modern coins. There are lots of historically interesting, beautiful issues being produced by the Mint in recent years. Collect what you want. But I'll also be the first to issue a strong caution against taking a traditional "buy and hold" investment approach to these ultra-grade slabbed moderns that currently sell for huge premiums.
Partner / Executive VP
Heritage Auctions
So then instead of TPG labels warning against moderns, they should warn against buying coins on TV? Or more to the point, maybe the label should say "Warning! Idiots should not buy coins." Please. Guppies will usually lose money, even if they're buying classics. Smart buyers will usually make money, even if they're buying moderns.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Any body here remember the great fund fueled market of 88-91 ?
Common Walkers in 65 bid @350.00,how much today 135.00 ?
i came back in early last year after watching Coin Vault starring Jim Beeyu and Boy Blunder and no i didnt buy anything from them,started buying the SHQ proof and mint sets,got em all and got bored,figured id put together a nice little birth year set for 1957 (mine,notice im near smack dad middle road boomer) to give my kid later on.
So i start picking up overgraded and raw crap off the bay till i learned my lessons the hard way.
Now i have 2,1957 registry sets,working on 1956,1958,1961,1964 and a complete year set for 1991 (the kids birth year) maybe its all modern crap ™but some of those coins are dang low pops even after 20 years of TPG services extant.
So perhaps my collection has some investment potential down the road,does that make me a collestor,invector,investor,or Collector ?
Leads me to my new set,1857 in circ grades,very long term project and will require butt loads of capitol to complete,suspect this is more in line with what Albanese was saying about modern crap™
Thats my story and im stickin to it !
Proof
<< <i>In the latest Rosen Numismatic Advisory letter? A little closed minded don't you think? . >>
It depends if your buying them or selling them.
To help modern investors get started I'll give part of Scott Travers' answer--" I view most areas of the coin market to be fully priced at this time....I expect classic gold and generic gold to increase impressively anyway and become even significantly MORE overpriced. (Rosen Num. Adv., available at $28/ 6mo. --and excellant buy IMHO by the way)
Any good buys????
<< <i>The truth is that many of those posting here have the know how to buy and sell moderns, thye know the game and how it is played.
However the majority of those buying moderns are doing so because they were introduced to it by a marketing campaign or some salesman. The markups on modern coins to the general public are insane and chances of the average person making money on this material ( except by accident) are about as close to zero as you can get. >>
I don't know that this is true and really suspect it isn't. The hobby has never really
embraced moderns. Oh sure there are specific areas that have been popular right
along but I can't recall seeing glossy folders offering rolls of 1973 proof nickels or un-
opened boxes of 1986 mint sets. I rarely even see big offers of moderns with more
demand like silver eagles being offered as the next big thing.
It seems more to the not so casual observer that the hobby is even reluctant to re-
spond to continuing demand. Bob Vila even has to sell moderns since there are
relatively few places that one can go to get the coins. The same thing happens at
NBC and other non-traditional venues. The shopping channels simply constitute anot-
her non-traditional place to buy coins. While much of what is said on these programs
needs to be heavily discounted it is accurate when they say they are the leading sell-
er of certified silver eagles. This didn't happen because they wanted to push these
coins on an unsuspecting public, it happened because there was a vacuum that they
stepped in to fill. The demand existed but there was no one to satisfy it. And it's much
like this across the board; traditional numismatics has a visceral hatred for these coins
and have simply avoided them in all forms for two generations.
<< <i>
Try to sell your moderns back to many of those selling this stuff and you will quickly learn just how bad it is. Many times they won't even make an offer! It's just cheaper to buy it raw, slab it and sell it rather than to make a two way market.
>>
The market for moderns is very thin and a large number of dealers feel very similarly to
Albanese about the value and collectibility of these coins. If you take one into their shop
they will make exceedingly weak offers because they probably have no knowledge and
no customers.
It's certainly true that some coins are being slabbed that are not very scarce and finding
a buyer when it comes time to sell can be difficult but this hardly applies to all moderns.
Many of these coins enjoy a healthy two-way market even if it is a niche market.
I'd recommend not investing in coins at all. But if one must invest, I'd always say the same thing: search out the best that you're interested in, do your research to make sure that it's a good deal, and then buy smart and don't just buy. Same advice works for stocks and other investments.
coinage. Come to think of it, thats what we seem to
have now.
Camelot
"new Economy" internet companies were unreasonable, that "new investors" were paying too much for these stocks, as they went higher and higher, and were predicting that many would decline in value when the bubble burst.
and also, back in '99, the "new players" were poo-pooing the sage words of these old guys who "just didn't get it" with their old fashioned ideas about how a company should be valued. "this time it's different!" they said.
the "old dinosaurs" were not intending to hurt the feelings of the new players; on the contrary, they were offering a warning about paying too much for hype and "story", while discounting the old measures of "quality" and "value"
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
100 years from now its a classic- so why complain today?
Good analogy. Now as then, all moderns or tech stocks are not diamonds, and all moderns or tech stocks are not turds.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
john albanese NEVER bashed the collecing of modern coins
*****************************************************
he made an opinion of investing in modern coins by the rare coin investor
which is his opinion
collecting of modern coins is absolutely great and IS THE leading force in this new "renaissance" rebirth of coin collecting
currently in the usa
which is GREAT
*investment is quite another story
facts;
The markups in general on classics are far less than moderns-
The resale market for classic coins is far more available and liquid than that of moderns, it's not even a close call.
maybe a warning should be put on modern holders that says
" buying this modern piece of crap can be hazardous to your financial health"
a buyer when it comes time to sell can be difficult but this hardly applies to all moderns.
Many of these coins enjoy a healthy two-way market even if it is a niche market. "
I agree, there are exceptions. I also have no problem with anyone that COLLECTS moderns because they enjoy them.