The markups in general on classics are far less than moderns-
The resale market for classic coins is far more available and liquid than that of moderns, it's not even a close call.
maybe a warning should be put on modern holders that says
" buying this modern piece of crap can be hazardous to your financial health" >>
Markups on raw moderns are among the lowest in the business. One does have to be careful to compare apples to apples but things like $5 mint sets can be sold at 80% of bid and bought at bid very easily. This is not true for $5 classics. Curiously even the $5 modern mint or proof set often will contain coins with a total wholesale value greater than the retail price!
While warning about potential loss in modern coins may well be indicated, there are many col- lectors and dealers who have substantial profits. Buying coins for investment is not a good idea but at least oif you do it in moderns, you won't have much competition.
<< <i>I'm still looking for all the hype being talked about, but find only this. >>
I'm still seeking a list of a few Modern denominations/dates/grades that I could reasonably invest, but do not see a single suggestion!!! I began collecting Morgans as a child from circulation too, long before they were actively advertised or sold per Cladking's "LINK"-- Can we name a few to look for in rolls/ at bank/mint sets or at dealers that anyone thinks will be a legit long term investment?? Albanese, Sperber, Carter and Traver gave suggests but I hear none here--------
<< <i>I'm still looking for all the hype being talked about, but find only this. >>
I'm still seeking a list of a few Modern denominations/dates/grades that I could reasonably invest, but do not see a single suggestion!!! I began collecting Morgans as a child from circulation too, long before they were actively advertised or sold per Cladking's "LINK"-- Can we name a few to look for in rolls/ at bank/mint sets or at dealers that anyone thinks will be a legit long term investment?? Albanese, Sperber, Carter and Traver gave suggests but I hear none here-------- >>
I hate suggesting people buy something for investment because they may not be around when it's time they should sell. Then they blame me. Buying collectibles for investment is even worse because the markets are fickle.
Of course the main reason here is that I have an agenda and no one would take it seriously if I started giving investment advice about coins. Study the coins and look to see what is tough and what isn't. Look at raw coins and the circulating coins to get a feel for what's typical. Buy the books and read them. If you collect the coins you'll probably do better than if you speculate and this is true whether you buy clas- sics or moderns. I'm terrible at keeping "secrets" about coins and have, no doubt, let many clues out over the years.
This really isn't a good area to just throw your money at. There are real pitfalls and if you try to get a lot of coins quickly without competent help then you could easily be on the right side of a market and still lose money.
Murphy--Albanese is not only a founder of both PCGS and NGC--he supposedly "ripped" a "Modern" 1913 Nickel from a well known dealer and suckered a N.J. dealer into paying $$4.15 Million Dollars for it!! (I'm kidding).
<< <i>Colelctors of "moderns" DO NOT CARE that there are millions and millions of other coins at face value ALMOST just like the one they have. >>
That's a silly statement born of ignorance, (one of many in this thread). I can guarantee that there are not "millions and millions" of moderns almost like the ones I enjoy collecting. In fact, there are not even "hundreds and hundreds."
<< <i>In the latest Rosen Numismatic Advisory letter? A little closed minded don't you think?
Rosen: What are the least attractive areas for a rare coin investor? Why pick those areas?
Albanese: If you would like to call modern coins an "area", this category should be avoided. Personally I don't even consider modern coins a "category". I would place them in the souvenir arena, similar to gas station tokens given to consumers in the 1950's and 60's. On the rare coin front, I would avoid several of the Top-100 coins, for example 1909-SVDB Cents in MS65-67 Red.
Rosen: This February marks the 20th anniversary of certification/slabbing. What changes/improvements would you want to see implemented for the entire grading process?
Albanese: The grading services should either immediately cease slabbing modern and bullion coins, or issue strong black-box warning labels on all of this trash. It should read something like, "This slab is harmful to your financial health and should be purchased for amusement purposes only". >>
where's all the "IT'S A HOBBY" people when you need them..............this guy is preaching the exact opposite of what is preached here...........and Coinguy, I know (or at least it seems)you respect this man, but the article was in a NUMISMATIC newsletter, not an INVESTMENT newsletter (according to the original poster).
In every "collectible" area.......whether it be coins or cars or real estate or coke memoribilia....
there has to be an entry level to allow the engine to run heathy and allow the players to trade up/down /sideways.
MODERN coins are great because you can get in at FACE...SOMETIMES. It allowed me to get in at face in 1961 when I had a 25cent a week allowance. I'm greatful.
Cmon guys I'm sure there are a lot of coins minted in the last 40 years that are considered a worthwhile collectable. What he is saying is don't invest your retirement money on sets of High Grade State Quarters or recently sold out mint products. They will not provide a valid return 20-30 years from now. He even went on to say that there are a lot of classic coins that fall into this "stay away" investment category and gave a very good example.
Agree! I went full time into modern dollars about 18 months ago when I woke up and realized that maybe, just maybe, the combination of a burgening eBay plus PCGS certification plus Registries plus the opportunity to get in on the ground floor of legitimate new varieties was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
I may be dead wrong, but, look at the pop of MS68 1999-D SBAs - rock steady at 110 inspite of their price moving from around $100 a year ago to $450 now. It is the only affordable MS68 in the series and therefore in demand by type collectors. I bought 15 of them over this year so am I crazy or a crazied newbie?
Then there is the relatively recent recognition of the three types of 1972 Ikes, with the T2 most likely a one die variant with most getting into circulation before they were recognized. Seen many of these in MS65 lately?
Even the lowly '79 SBA Wide Rim probably has a tiny total high-grade pop - it, too, got into circulation before it was recognized. A PCGS MS67 Wide Rim (pop 9) is indeed a thing of beauty for those of us who like Suzzies, as this coin is so seldom clean of heavy marks. So, is $2,500 too much to pay for this coin? How long will it take for it to reach $5,000 or 10,000?
Then there's the 2003-D Sac in MS67.... It's price has jumped from around $100 a year ago to near $300 now simply because the PCGS pop is level in the mid-200s and collectors want a decent looking one for their collections and the MS68 is in the thousands.
Wherever you look in modern dollars, the only arena I can speak for, there are decent coins to collect at fair prices and keys that, IMHO, will be good investments as well as fun to have, to share, to brag about. The wife may not be so sanguine but that's your problem! Rob Sure, don't waste big money on higher pop moderns as demand is fickle and supply unlimited. And the hucksters who threaten the modern market by pushing high-grade moderns that flow out of sub-factories deserve the lumps they will surely take in time.
But ignoring the true modern keys is missing an opportunity. On the other hand, keep that blindfold on as I'm not finished trying to accumulate my share....... Rob
Modern dollars are like children - before you know it they'll be all grown up.....
<< <i>if you spend the time to select rarer denomination premium superb gems at face, submit them and save them at cost, they might someday be worth serious money. >>
Sounds like something the microscope kid was trying to do!
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
If you kill interest in moderns, the engine that brings fresh classic buyers to the market dies.
Most certainly, the engine that brought fresh classic buyers to the market in 1977-1980 and 1985-1990 was NOT moderns. And I submit that the "modern engine" trying to bring classic buyers to this current market is essentially stalled. Investors and dealers (either acting as sellers or collectors for themselves) are the engine of the classic coin market. Without their speculation there is no true lift-off. If that modern engine starts to pull classics along..........I'll let you know.
I think we generally have a consensus that Albanese was discussing the investment potential of common modern material in rare coin portfolios. Sure, there will be a good or greatr coin here and there among them, but as a class they are limited. Personally, I hate issues especially released for collectors (modern commemoratives, proof and mint sets, bullion). That's my feeling. Collect what you like and enjoy it all. You might enjoy enough collector company to maintain prices. Who knows?
As for investing in general, I do like Jay Parrino's old philosophy of a box of twenty. I believe he suggested dividing your investment allocation into twenty shares and buying the most you can with each share to build a responsibly diversified and manageable set of coins. I think for budgets starting at $100K, that would work fine. Now, for collector/investors, that might work for a short type set or a series like Liberty nickels.
Just received "The Numismatic Perspective" dated November 28, 2005. The front page article is written by QDB and is titled: "Some Thoughts on Numismatics and Changing Times". I believe it has a direct correlation to what we're talking about here and hope everyone reads it also.
What do you want to bet that he would be all over MS70 & PR70 moderns if the price dropped today so that he could get them cheap? What is the highest population coin in MS70 or PR70? I doubt there are any with a large population. As long as there is a market for coins, there will be a market for high end coins regardless of age.
Seems to me the people who are most upset about his comments are the ones who like to buy 10 dollar proof sets and make a coin worth 1500.00 at PCGS or NGC and then sell the thing and rush here and toot their horn about it on these boards. I am very happy to do that same thing, except of course tooting the horn. But I dont buy them for 1500 dollars and then set on them as do the folks who do the registry set thing. To me that is a very dangerous game. And at the end of the game the one who is in the chair is left holding an empty bag. I think that is what Mr Albanese was speaking to. As Mr Feld pointed out, people who buy those coins at a high price and for an investment, they are the ones whom he is warning. If you want to pay the price and keep it as a collectible, not expeciting any money return out of it at all, then you are a true collector and do not need to be worried or perplexed about his comments. JMHO.
In an insane society, a sane person will appear to be insane.
<< <i>What do you want to bet that he would be all over MS70 & PR70 moderns if the price dropped today so that he could get them cheap?
LOL! I highly doubt it. >>
Herein lies, perhaps, the greatesty strenght of moderns as investments; no one likes them. They didn't didn't like them a few years ago when they were far cheaper and they don't like them now. Most collec- tors wouldn't like them if they increased sharply from present level and they wouldn't like them if they crashed. They regard them to be the numismatic equivalent of green eggs and ham. They are not set- ting aside coins for investment and won't even look at the raw coins they might have to see if there's anything of current value.
Instead they are recommending the coins that have "always" been valuable. They compare one widely collected coin to another to guess whether it might be under or overvalued at current levels. Meanwhile they simply ignore the vast millions of new collectors and seem to assume that feeding them a steady diet of "moderns are crap" will hasten the time they become "advanced collectors" and buy coins that are less like gas station tokens. All the while it is real collector demand pushing up the later coins while increasing amounts of money are put into "investment" coins.
It's easy to understand how someone like Albanese would not suggest moderns are a good bet and would view their behavior to date to be a sort of anomaly. It's also easy to understand why he would downplay the performance of these coins so far since he doesn't even consider them "real" coins. With all the atten- tion they're getting and their great appreciation it's also understandable that he might feel he needs to ad- dress their existence if only to deny them. But it's not so easy to understand why he has to bash them. It's not so easy to understand why he should refer to them as trash and compare them to amusement and gas tokens.
And for those who defend his statements please note that he made no exception for rarities. He made no exception for coins in great demand. Like most modern bashers all along he just lumped them all into one nice neat category and slammed it mercilessly.
Seems to me the people who are most upset about his comments are the ones who like to buy 10 dollar proof sets and make a coin worth 1500.00 at PCGS or NGC and then sell the thing and rush here and toot their horn about it on these boards. I am very happy to do that same thing, except of course tooting the horn. But I dont buy them for 1500 dollars and then set on them as do the folks who do the registry set thing. To me that is a very dangerous game. And at the end of the game the one who is in the chair is left holding an empty bag. I think that is what Mr Albanese was speaking to. As Mr Feld pointed out, people who buy those coins at a high price and for an investment, they are the ones whom he is warning. If you want to pay the price and keep it as a collectible, not expeciting any money return out of it at all, then you are a true collector and do not need to be worried or perplexed about his comments. JMHO.
I like all coins. I can make a case ( to myself) to buy AND LIKE just about anything.
But I would strongly recommend against buying the type of moderns being discussed for any type of investment other than an investment in the fun and enjoyment that comes from collecting coins .
>Seems to me the people who are most upset about his comments are the ones who like to buy 10 dollar proof sets and make a coin worth 1500.00 at PCGS or NGC and then sell the thing and rush here and toot their horn about it on these boards
Not I. I do not play the game. My observations are not motivated by greed.
Albanese: If you would like to call modern coins an "area", this category should be avoided. Personally I don't even consider modern coins a "category". I would place them in the souvenir arena, similar to gas station tokens given to consumers in the 1950's and 60's. On the rare coin front, I would avoid several of the Top-100 coins, for example 1909-SVDB Cents in MS65-67 Red.
Albanese: The grading services should either immediately cease slabbing modern and bullion coins, or issue strong black-box warning labels on all of this trash. It should read something like, "This slab is harmful to your financial health and should be purchased for amusement purposes only".
Let's see if I can translate;
<< <i> If you would like to call modern coins an "area", this category should be avoided. Personally I don't even consider modern coins a "category". >>
These aren't even really coins. Implication- they quit making coins in 1965.
<< <i> I would place them in the souvenir arena, similar to gas station tokens given to consumers in the 1950's and 60's. >>
These are crap.
<< <i>The grading services should either immediately cease slabbing modern and bullion coins, or issue strong black-box warning labels on all of this trash. It should read something like, "This slab is harmful to your financial health and... >>
I've never made a nickel on these coins and others have made huge profits.
<< <i> should be purchased for amusement purposes only". >>
just like amusement tokens there can be no lasting market or real collector demand.
No. Certainly only the greedy modern collector could possibly be unhappy about statements like this. If there were any real modern collectors they would find these statements amusing.
I believe that modern coins are very beautiful and collectible, but for investment purposes they are not the best coins that are likely to appreciate in value. For most of the dates in the coins considered modern, there are many that are not yet graded and when they get sent in the population for those will rise steeply. It also seems that most of the modern coins were well made and packaged securely, so their surviving condition is typically very nice.
I don't think there is anything wrong with collecting modern coins, but I personally prefer the more classic coin types.
Has anyone seen the latest figures brought in by Heritage, Teletrade, ANR just to mention a few. Record prices are being set all over the board. The U.S Mint is very influential and have been a success with Modern Coins. This is what has driven the market to what it is today. People first started collecting Mint sets etc. and then the very popular state quarters and the very unique looking Dollar (Sacagawea). Then the Platinum Eagl program etc. Some collectors started learning and collecting because of all the hype of the circulating coinage and some of them happened to have some deep pockets. So for those real non wannabe dealers you should be thankful for modern coins. Without them the market wouldn't be what it is today and you wouldn't be in the posiotion you are in today.
After all, Albanese just spoke his opinion. So here's mine "the Rosen Numismatic advisory is incorrect." You don't need to follow any ones advice on what to collect or what to invest in. Do your own research and quit paying people for their opinions. You can just post it here and you will get some very good answers for free. Unless this Advisory has some sort of guarantee I take it with a grain of salt. If, MR. Albanese is williing to put his money where his opinions are. For example, suggest a good coin investment and guarantee it will go up or he will buy it back for the paid price. Then, his opinion or suggestion would make more sense.
Mr. Albanese is certainly entitled to his very informed opinion, and I'm sure what I collect would look like "trash" to him, or a filling station premium. I'm not surprised he thinks coins minted since 1955 are not good investments. I'm sure the ratio of interesting coins is much lower for coins of that era than the coins of the early 19th century. History will judge the merits of my coin strategy. That's all anyone can ask. Still, personally John, I'd have said I didn't think moderns were a good investment in a more tactful way. Maybe Ms.Sperber could help soften your approach a bit.
Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
I believe what Mr. Albanese was saying; Collecting later date coins is a very high tech game, unless you are very knowledgable with extensive experience in grading a superb mint state, proof to a perfect coin, than your only throwing money to the wind! Of course, I'm not one of them, although I can say, I really love about 40% of my collection.
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
Classics are proven to hold value for a long time, over many generations.
The jury is still out on moderns and will be for quite some time. Probably fifty years from now the oldtimers will still be telling everyone they are crap. By definition they have no longterm stability and therefore everyone is suspicious.
A hundred years ago it was the same thing. Everyone thought old coppers was where it was at and no one cared much about the modern issues, though quite a few did put aside one silver proof set every year.
My opinion is that moderns don't have foundational value - there are too many of them and collectors are chasing after very small, typically 1-2 points, differences in grading. But only time will tell for sure whether those minute differences can sustain a market. People do pay big bucks for diamonds and leave it to the experts to grade the difference between a good stone and a not so good one.
Classics are proven to hold value for a long time, over many generations.
The jury is still out on moderns and will be for quite some time. Probably fifty years from now the oldtimers will still be telling everyone they are crap. By definition they have no longterm stability and therefore everyone is suspicious.
A hundred years ago it was the same thing. Everyone thought old coppers was where it was at and no one cared much about the modern issues, though quite a few did put aside one silver proof set every year.
My opinion is that moderns don't have foundational value - there are too many of them and collectors are chasing after very small, typically 1-2 points, differences in grading. But only time will tell for sure whether those minute differences can sustain a market. People do pay big bucks for diamonds and leave it to the experts to grade the difference between a good stone and a not so good one. >>
Again you are lumping them all into one neat category and they simply don't fit any single category. There are moderns with low mintages and there are scarce and rare moderns. There simply aren't going to be any quantities of '75 No-S sets turning up and there won't be quantities of gem '69 or '82 quarters turning up. Indeed, unless you count circulating coins, there won't even be a lot of typ- ical coins of many dates turning up.
It may or may not take fifty years for most people to know this but there are those who know it now. Just about anyone who actually looks can prove it to himself now and there are people looking. This is what's driving the prices up now. If more people look there will be more demand and a still shrinking supply.
There's no such thing as intrinsic or foundational value seperate from what people believe. As more believe these coins have value their foundational value increases.
While some learning is necessary to spot the difference between PR-69 and PR-70 there is nothing complicated about seeing the differences between MS-66 and MS-67. While everyone won't always agree on every coin exactly what is 66 and what is 67 they'll almost always agree that the 67 is sup- erior.
Yes. Classics have proven themselves over generations even while collectors ignored moderns. But, moderns are still the great values in the markets. They are great values because rarity is far less ex- pensive and because with millions of new collectors the demand might become even higher than for classics. Do the math.
<< <i>Please explain. I must be using a different dictionary.
All of them? >>
Don't be obstinate. Ikes and Sacs are still babies. We are not talking about something like a 1794 dollar which has been a very desirable thing for 150 years. That does not mean Sackies won't be in the same class one hundred years from now.
Do all classics perform well? Of course not. But a great number of dealers have been able to make a living off them for a very long time. We can not yet say the same thing of their modern brethren. Therein lies the distrust.
The PCGS Price Guide is a guide to assist the coin buying public in determining values for all significant United States rare coins. Before you use the PCGS Price Guide, you should read the following information very carefully.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION - PLEASE READ CAREFULLY The coin market is volatile and thinly capitalized. Significant short-term price swings are always possible. Collectors Universe, its principals and representatives do not guarantee a profit nor guarantee against a loss for any coin you buy or sell based on the information contained on any Collectors Universe website. You buy and sell rare coins at your own risk.
I liked the disclaimer Hanies Tulving used to have on his site, saying that when you went to sell you could experience a significant drop in price, and that the market demand may not exist at all.
One good example is Taletrade or Ebay many of there sales are because of modern coins. Heritage even Superior sells modern coins. If grading company's gave up slabbing coins then auction houses would have too stop selling them also. So, even though he is a very knowledgeable individual he does not have the influence or ability to change things.
I am certain there are dealers that make a living buying and selling modern coins. Not to mention they probably work long hours and preferr spending time with their families for example. So, to say moderns are not concidered coins could of been aproached differently IMO.
Is a 1969 quarter in MS-67 a "modern"? (I think so.)
Is a 1971 Ike in MS-67 a "modern"? (I think so.)
Is a 1971 no "S" Jefferson in PR 69 DCAM a "modern"? (I think so.)
Is a 1970-D Kennedy in MS-67 DMPL a "modern"? (I think so.)
What are these coins worth? (I have no idea.)
Are they bad "investments" at current levels? (I can't have a meaninful opinion because I don't know what these legitimately important coins are worth.)
I'd especially like to hear what the modern-bashers think about these specific coins. I suspect they have no clue because they've never considered the coins worthy of their attention.
That said, of course there are many people making bad investments in moderns. If you want to help them, teach them how to identify the moderns that are worth chasing as an investment. I'm sick of the generalizations.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>If you want to help them, teach them how to identify the moderns that are worth chasing as an investment. I'm sick of the generalizations. >>
Amen.
One of my favorite coins as a collector is the 1972 DDO cent. I adore the coin as a collector. I also think it is one of the better coins to own for long term appreciation. I have felt this way for 20 plus years now.
I now have approximately 30 of them in various grades of mint state and am on a quest to complete a "roll" of them. Problem is that the prices have been rising on them too rapidly for me to complete this roll at a reasonable cost that I started back in 1982.
Is the 1972 DDO cent a good investment? I can't say for sure but being that I put my money where my mouth is I have to admit it has been a heck of a strong as well as a rock steady performer for the past 22 years. It was valuable when it first was discovered but suffered for about 7 years between 1976 and 1983 after the "FJ Vollmer hype" died down but has been rock solid since then.
The demand for this modern coin is incredible and is reasonably competitive with the 1955DDO cent which has the honor of possibly becoming the most famous coin of the entire 20th century.
Some may concider moderns as non real coins. But let's take for example an older coin like a 1893S Morgan, 1932D Quarter,1916D Dime. They are rare indeed compared to modern issues. But, what about Patterns they are even more rare and the 3 coins mentioned above would be no where near as rare as some or many Patterns.
Why do the above three coins sell for more? Because of the demand. Demand is high for key date coins as well as some or many modern coins. Regardless if they exist in the millions.
I thought that the combination of John Albanese, highly respected numismatist, and the Rosen Newseletter, the best in the business, publishing such a statement could be damaging to the business as a whole. Of course, certainly everyone is entitled to their opinion.
I spoke with John, and I believe the mainpoint he wanted to convey was simply that he does not believe moderns should be bought for investment purposes. Although I sell lots of moderns, I happen to agree with him, and never represent them as good investments. They are beautiful, fun to collect and build sets, and the largest coin dealer in the world, the U.S. Mint certainly sells them to many satisfied customers.
I think many of us who deal or collect ONLY in classics sometimes adobt a bit of a snobby attitude towards moderns. I remind them, moderns are not only a segment or area, but the LARGEST area of the market. If I am speaking to a customer who buys moderns and he or she so much as mutters the word investment even once, I IMMEDIATELY tell them they are going down the WRONG road and attempt to steer them to classics, recognizing that classics have many of the same risks.
You CAN make money money in moderns. Look at the Marines! I have paid over double the issue price for large groups of both mint state and proofs. Did these prove a good investment for their owners? I think so. I could name a dozen others real quick. However this is really speculation, not prudent investing.
Bottom line: This is America, to each his own.
John Maben
John Maben
Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
800-381-2646
<< <i>That said, of course there are many people making bad investments in moderns. If you want to help them, teach them how to identify the moderns that are worth chasing as an investment. I'm sick of the generalizations. >>
I think it is fair to say that you could easily replace the word "modern" with the word "classics" and the statement would be just as valid.
OK, my two cents here. I am currently selling off about $22,000 of Modern Crap and about $8,000 of MS64 and higher Morgans and Peace Dollars. All were collected between 1995 and 2003. 90% of the Modern Crap is slabbed and 100% of the dollars are slabbed. I have consigned the coins to a friend to sell on ebay so my selling costs are all ebay costs plus 10%. Approximately 1/4 of the collection has sold. In looking at the sales to date, both the modern crap as a whole and the Dollars are in the black. The return on the Dollars is about 8 points better than on the Moderns, but the biggest individual winners to date have been Modern pieces, some over 100% although more bullion related (platinum). Most common date Dollars in MS64 are performing in the red. Most clad Kennedy proofs are losers, but silver Kennedy proofs are winners. So it goes, plusses and minuses with both classics and moderns after holding for 2-10 years.
We can play the "What is the better investment?" game all day long. Frankly, I think coins in general are a terrible investment. Suggesting one really knows what will happen with prices in the future is a joke. Collect for enjoyment. Investing only takes the joy out of coins.
<< <i>There is NO wholesale secondary market in Modern coins! There are NO dealers who actively make buy/sell spreads unless the stuff is raw and they can score by getting these coins graded. Its not like buying a MOrgan where you can go anywhere and get a fair price. >>
This is one of the reasons dealers bad mouth the modern market. They have been left out. The modern players have a huge market, it is called the internet. Collectors don't need a dealer wholesale market to trade. In fact, the internet with Moderns provides a much closer spread for collectors which is a big plus.
"John Albanese? More like Johnny Come-lately-ese. Newcomer to the coin scene, trying to make a name for himself. Please don't feed the trolls, folks! "
Either you have a great sense of humor or you are clueless. Can you please let us all know what roock you just crawled out from under.
One more point to make. I am holding on to my Modern Commem Sets, both unc and proof, as well as my Silver Eagle Proof set which includes the 1995-W. These sets if sold today would be huge percentage winners. BTW, the drumbeat of Modern Bashing is not new. They have been pooh-poohed since I got back into collecting in 1995 which is when I started assembling these sets. Frankly, these sets have outperformed all classic coins I have purchased during the same time period.
Yeah, I know. I need to sell these now before they lose all their value. Yeah, right.
I hate to break it to all y'all, but most truly classical academic numismatists would consider all US coins as modern crap, although they would be too polite to say so. The amount of time and attention we spend discussing and studying such uninteresting objects which are already very well understood would baffle them. Much more interesting to attempt to identify unknown Sassanian mints, right? Or the celator of a particular lifetime issue Alexandrian tetradrachm.
Comments
<< <i>
facts;
The markups in general on classics are far less than moderns-
The resale market for classic coins is far more available and liquid than that of moderns, it's not even a close call.
maybe a warning should be put on modern holders that says
" buying this modern piece of crap can be hazardous to your financial health" >>
Markups on raw moderns are among the lowest in the business. One does have to be careful
to compare apples to apples but things like $5 mint sets can be sold at 80% of bid and bought
at bid very easily. This is not true for $5 classics. Curiously even the $5 modern mint or proof
set often will contain coins with a total wholesale value greater than the retail price!
While warning about potential loss in modern coins may well be indicated, there are many col-
lectors and dealers who have substantial profits. Buying coins for investment is not a good
idea but at least oif you do it in moderns, you won't have much competition.
<< <i>I'm still looking for all the hype being talked about, but find only this. >>
I'm still seeking a list of a few Modern denominations/dates/grades that I could reasonably invest, but do not see a single suggestion!!! I began collecting Morgans as a child from circulation too, long before they were actively advertised or sold per Cladking's "LINK"-- Can we name a few to look for in rolls/ at bank/mint sets or at dealers that anyone thinks will be a legit long term investment?? Albanese, Sperber, Carter and Traver gave suggests but I hear none here--------
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm still looking for all the hype being talked about, but find only this. >>
I'm still seeking a list of a few Modern denominations/dates/grades that I could reasonably invest, but do not see a single suggestion!!! I began collecting Morgans as a child from circulation too, long before they were actively advertised or sold per Cladking's "LINK"-- Can we name a few to look for in rolls/ at bank/mint sets or at dealers that anyone thinks will be a legit long term investment?? Albanese, Sperber, Carter and Traver gave suggests but I hear none here--------
I hate suggesting people buy something for investment because they may not be
around when it's time they should sell. Then they blame me. Buying collectibles
for investment is even worse because the markets are fickle.
Of course the main reason here is that I have an agenda and no one would take
it seriously if I started giving investment advice about coins. Study the coins and
look to see what is tough and what isn't. Look at raw coins and the circulating coins
to get a feel for what's typical. Buy the books and read them. If you collect the coins
you'll probably do better than if you speculate and this is true whether you buy clas-
sics or moderns. I'm terrible at keeping "secrets" about coins and have, no doubt,
let many clues out over the years.
This really isn't a good area to just throw your money at. There are real pitfalls and
if you try to get a lot of coins quickly without competent help then you could easily be
on the right side of a market and still lose money.
One question though, who's John Albanese?
My EBay Store/Auctions
<< <i>...And what's wrong with gas station souvenirs? He probably never even tried to find
a nice type 2 FDR Shell Mr President "coin". >>
Yea, verily. And how about the complete set of Noah's Ark Animals from Richfield? Try finding those in gem unc.
Obscurum per obscurius
<< <i>Colelctors of "moderns" DO NOT CARE that there are millions and millions of other coins at face value ALMOST just like the one they have. >>
That's a silly statement born of ignorance, (one of many in this thread). I can guarantee that there are not "millions and millions" of moderns almost like the ones I enjoy collecting. In fact, there are not even "hundreds and hundreds."
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>In the latest Rosen Numismatic Advisory letter? A little closed minded don't you think?
Rosen: What are the least attractive areas for a rare coin investor? Why pick those areas?
Albanese: If you would like to call modern coins an "area", this category should be avoided. Personally I don't even consider modern coins a "category". I would place them in the souvenir arena, similar to gas station tokens given to consumers in the 1950's and 60's. On the rare coin front, I would avoid several of the Top-100 coins, for example 1909-SVDB Cents in MS65-67 Red.
Rosen: This February marks the 20th anniversary of certification/slabbing. What changes/improvements would you want to see implemented for the entire grading process?
Albanese: The grading services should either immediately cease slabbing modern and bullion coins, or issue strong black-box warning labels on all of this trash. It should read something like, "This slab is harmful to your financial health and should be purchased for amusement purposes only". >>
where's all the "IT'S A HOBBY" people when you need them..............this guy is preaching the exact opposite of what is preached here...........and Coinguy, I know (or at least it seems)you respect this man, but the article was in a NUMISMATIC newsletter, not an INVESTMENT newsletter (according to the original poster).
there has to be an entry level to allow the engine to run heathy and allow the players to trade up/down /sideways.
MODERN coins are great because you can get in at FACE...SOMETIMES. It allowed me to get in at face in 1961 when I had a 25cent a week allowance. I'm greatful.
I can't believe so many electrons died due to the words he spoke.
<< <i>Text >>
Agree! I went full time into modern dollars about 18 months ago when I woke up and realized that maybe, just maybe, the combination of a burgening eBay plus PCGS certification plus Registries plus the opportunity to get in on the ground floor of legitimate new varieties was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
I may be dead wrong, but, look at the pop of MS68 1999-D SBAs - rock steady at 110 inspite of their price moving from around $100 a year ago to $450 now. It is the only affordable MS68 in the series and therefore in demand by type collectors. I bought 15 of them over this year so am I crazy or a crazied newbie?
Then there is the relatively recent recognition of the three types of 1972 Ikes, with the T2 most likely a one die variant with most getting into circulation before they were recognized. Seen many of these in MS65 lately?
Even the lowly '79 SBA Wide Rim probably has a tiny total high-grade pop - it, too, got into circulation before it was recognized. A PCGS MS67 Wide Rim (pop 9) is indeed a thing of beauty for those of us who like Suzzies, as this coin is so seldom clean of heavy marks. So, is $2,500 too much to pay for this coin? How long will it take for it to reach $5,000 or 10,000?
Then there's the 2003-D Sac in MS67.... It's price has jumped from around $100 a year ago to near $300 now simply because the PCGS pop is level in the mid-200s and collectors want a decent looking one for their collections and the MS68 is in the thousands.
Wherever you look in modern dollars, the only arena I can speak for, there are decent coins to collect at fair prices and keys that, IMHO, will be good investments as well as fun to have, to share, to brag about. The wife may not be so sanguine but that's your problem!
Rob
Sure, don't waste big money on higher pop moderns as demand is fickle and supply unlimited. And the hucksters who threaten the modern market by pushing high-grade moderns that flow out of sub-factories deserve the lumps they will surely take in time.
But ignoring the true modern keys is missing an opportunity. On the other hand, keep that blindfold on as I'm not finished trying to accumulate my share....... Rob
Questions about Ikes? Go to The IKE GROUP WEB SITE
<< <i>if you spend the time to select rarer denomination premium superb gems at face, submit them and save them at cost, they might someday be worth serious money. >>
Sounds like something the microscope kid was trying to do!
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
Most certainly, the engine that brought fresh classic buyers to the market in 1977-1980 and 1985-1990
was NOT moderns. And I submit that the "modern engine" trying to bring classic buyers to this current
market is essentially stalled. Investors and dealers (either acting as sellers or collectors for themselves)
are the engine of the classic coin market. Without their speculation there is no true lift-off. If that modern
engine starts to pull classics along..........I'll let you know.
roadrunner
As for investing in general, I do like Jay Parrino's old philosophy of a box of twenty. I believe he suggested dividing your investment allocation into twenty shares and buying the most you can with each share to build a responsibly diversified and manageable set of coins. I think for budgets starting at $100K, that would work fine. Now, for collector/investors, that might work for a short type set or a series like Liberty nickels.
NSDR - Life Member
SSDC - Life Member
ANA - Pay As I Go Member
<< <i>What do you want to bet that he would be all over MS70 & PR70 moderns if the price dropped today so that he could get them cheap?
LOL! I highly doubt it. >>
Herein lies, perhaps, the greatesty strenght of moderns as investments; no one likes them. They didn't
didn't like them a few years ago when they were far cheaper and they don't like them now. Most collec-
tors wouldn't like them if they increased sharply from present level and they wouldn't like them if they
crashed. They regard them to be the numismatic equivalent of green eggs and ham. They are not set-
ting aside coins for investment and won't even look at the raw coins they might have to see if there's
anything of current value.
Instead they are recommending the coins that have "always" been valuable. They compare one widely
collected coin to another to guess whether it might be under or overvalued at current levels. Meanwhile
they simply ignore the vast millions of new collectors and seem to assume that feeding them a steady
diet of "moderns are crap" will hasten the time they become "advanced collectors" and buy coins that
are less like gas station tokens. All the while it is real collector demand pushing up the later coins while
increasing amounts of money are put into "investment" coins.
It's easy to understand how someone like Albanese would not suggest moderns are a good bet and would
view their behavior to date to be a sort of anomaly. It's also easy to understand why he would downplay
the performance of these coins so far since he doesn't even consider them "real" coins. With all the atten-
tion they're getting and their great appreciation it's also understandable that he might feel he needs to ad-
dress their existence if only to deny them. But it's not so easy to understand why he has to bash them.
It's not so easy to understand why he should refer to them as trash and compare them to amusement and
gas tokens.
And for those who defend his statements please note that he made no exception for rarities. He made no
exception for coins in great demand. Like most modern bashers all along he just lumped them all into one
nice neat category and slammed it mercilessly.
Bravo!
very well put.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
But I would strongly recommend against buying the type of moderns being discussed for any type of investment other than an investment in the fun and enjoyment that comes from collecting coins .
Great fun!
Happy Collecting as Oreville would say
Tom
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Not I. I do not play the game. My observations are not motivated by greed.
Albanese: If you would like to call modern coins an "area", this category should be avoided. Personally I don't even consider modern coins a "category". I would place them in the souvenir arena, similar to gas station tokens given to consumers in the 1950's and 60's. On the rare coin front, I would avoid several of the Top-100 coins, for example 1909-SVDB Cents in MS65-67 Red.
Albanese: The grading services should either immediately cease slabbing modern and bullion coins, or issue strong black-box warning labels on all of this trash. It should read something like, "This slab is harmful to your financial health and should be purchased for amusement purposes only".
Let's see if I can translate;
<< <i> If you would like to call modern coins an "area", this category should be avoided. Personally I don't even consider modern coins a "category".
>>
These aren't even really coins. Implication- they quit making coins in 1965.
<< <i> I would place them in the souvenir arena, similar to gas station tokens given to consumers in the 1950's and 60's. >>
These are crap.
<< <i>The grading services should either immediately cease slabbing modern and bullion coins, or issue strong black-box warning labels on all of this trash. It should read something like, "This slab is harmful to your financial health and... >>
I've never made a nickel on these coins and others have made huge profits.
<< <i> should be purchased for amusement purposes only". >>
just like amusement tokens there can be no lasting market or real collector demand.
No. Certainly only the greedy modern collector could possibly be unhappy about statements like this. If there were any real modern collectors they would find these statements amusing.
...But then, of course, most of us do.
I don't think there is anything wrong with collecting modern coins, but I personally prefer the more classic coin types.
Legend
Expert Collector
Posts: 3131
Joined: Dec 2001
Friday December 02, 2005 10:28 PM (NEW!)
WOW, I'm away and some else stirs the pot. And he is NOT a wannabe.
John spoke the truth. Of course people take it out of context.
After all, Albanese just spoke his opinion. So here's mine "the Rosen Numismatic advisory is incorrect." You don't need to follow any ones advice on what to collect or what to invest in. Do your own research and quit paying people for their opinions. You can just post it here and you will get some very good answers for free. Unless this Advisory has some sort of guarantee I take it with a grain of salt. If, MR. Albanese is williing to put his money where his opinions are. For example, suggest a good coin investment and guarantee it will go up or he will buy it back for the paid price. Then, his opinion or suggestion would make more sense.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
Of course, I'm not one of them, although I can say, I really love about 40% of my collection.
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
Classics are proven to hold value for a long time, over many generations.
The jury is still out on moderns and will be for quite some time. Probably fifty years from now the oldtimers will still be telling everyone they are crap. By definition they have no longterm stability and therefore everyone is suspicious.
A hundred years ago it was the same thing. Everyone thought old coppers was where it was at and no one cared much about the modern issues, though quite a few did put aside one silver proof set every year.
My opinion is that moderns don't have foundational value - there are too many of them and collectors are chasing after very small, typically 1-2 points, differences in grading. But only time will tell for sure whether those minute differences can sustain a market. People do pay big bucks for diamonds and leave it to the experts to grade the difference between a good stone and a not so good one.
Please explain. I must be using a different dictionary.
>Classics are proven to hold value for a long time, over many generations.
All of them?
<< <i>Here's the deal-
Classics are proven to hold value for a long time, over many generations.
The jury is still out on moderns and will be for quite some time. Probably fifty years from now the oldtimers will still be telling everyone they are crap. By definition they have no longterm stability and therefore everyone is suspicious.
A hundred years ago it was the same thing. Everyone thought old coppers was where it was at and no one cared much about the modern issues, though quite a few did put aside one silver proof set every year.
My opinion is that moderns don't have foundational value - there are too many of them and collectors are chasing after very small, typically 1-2 points, differences in grading. But only time will tell for sure whether those minute differences can sustain a market. People do pay big bucks for diamonds and leave it to the experts to grade the difference between a good stone and a not so good one. >>
Again you are lumping them all into one neat category and they simply don't fit any single category.
There are moderns with low mintages and there are scarce and rare moderns. There simply aren't
going to be any quantities of '75 No-S sets turning up and there won't be quantities of gem '69 or
'82 quarters turning up. Indeed, unless you count circulating coins, there won't even be a lot of typ-
ical coins of many dates turning up.
It may or may not take fifty years for most people to know this but there are those who know it now.
Just about anyone who actually looks can prove it to himself now and there are people looking. This
is what's driving the prices up now. If more people look there will be more demand and a still shrinking
supply.
There's no such thing as intrinsic or foundational value seperate from what people believe. As more
believe these coins have value their foundational value increases.
While some learning is necessary to spot the difference between PR-69 and PR-70 there is nothing
complicated about seeing the differences between MS-66 and MS-67. While everyone won't always
agree on every coin exactly what is 66 and what is 67 they'll almost always agree that the 67 is sup-
erior.
Yes. Classics have proven themselves over generations even while collectors ignored moderns. But,
moderns are still the great values in the markets. They are great values because rarity is far less ex-
pensive and because with millions of new collectors the demand might become even higher than for
classics. Do the math.
<< <i>Please explain. I must be using a different dictionary.
All of them? >>
Don't be obstinate. Ikes and Sacs are still babies. We are not talking about something like a 1794 dollar which has been a very desirable thing for 150 years. That does not mean Sackies won't be in the same class one hundred years from now.
Do all classics perform well? Of course not. But a great number of dealers have been able to make a living off them for a very long time. We can not yet say the same thing of their modern brethren. Therein lies the distrust.
Speculators may - or may not make a mint. The key to that is to sell high....
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I liked the disclaimer Hanies Tulving used to have on his site, saying that when you went to sell you could experience a significant drop in price, and that the market demand may not exist at all.
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since 8/1/6
I am certain there are dealers that make a living buying and selling modern coins. Not to mention they probably work long hours and preferr spending time with their families for example. So, to say moderns are not concidered coins could of been aproached differently IMO.
Even though I don't know John Albanese personally, I know many dealers who have great respect for him.
<< <i>Isn't John Albanese also the main buyer for Blanchard and Co.?
Even though I don't know John Albanese personally, I know many dealers who have great respect for him. >>
I can respect the man without respecting his opinion that there are no coins since 1965.
Is a 1971 Ike in MS-67 a "modern"? (I think so.)
Is a 1971 no "S" Jefferson in PR 69 DCAM a "modern"? (I think so.)
Is a 1970-D Kennedy in MS-67 DMPL a "modern"? (I think so.)
What are these coins worth? (I have no idea.)
Are they bad "investments" at current levels? (I can't have a meaninful opinion because I don't know what these legitimately important coins are worth.)
I'd especially like to hear what the modern-bashers think about these specific coins. I suspect they have no clue because they've never considered the coins worthy of their attention.
That said, of course there are many people making bad investments in moderns. If you want to help them, teach them how to identify the moderns that are worth chasing as an investment. I'm sick of the generalizations.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>If you want to help them, teach them how to identify the moderns that are worth chasing as an investment. I'm sick of the generalizations. >>
Amen.
One of my favorite coins as a collector is the 1972 DDO cent. I adore the coin as a collector. I also think it is one of the better coins to own for long term appreciation. I have felt this way for 20 plus years now.
I now have approximately 30 of them in various grades of mint state and am on a quest to complete a "roll" of them. Problem is that the prices have been rising on them too rapidly for me to complete this roll at a reasonable cost that I started back in 1982.
Is the 1972 DDO cent a good investment? I can't say for sure but being that I put my money where my mouth is I have to admit it has been a heck of a strong as well as a rock steady performer for the past 22 years. It was valuable when it first was discovered but suffered for about 7 years between 1976 and 1983 after the "FJ Vollmer hype" died down but has been rock solid since then.
The demand for this modern coin is incredible and is reasonably competitive with the 1955DDO cent which has the honor of possibly becoming the most famous coin of the entire 20th century.
Why do the above three coins sell for more? Because of the demand. Demand is high for key date coins as well as some or many modern coins. Regardless if they exist in the millions.
I spoke with John, and I believe the mainpoint he wanted to convey was simply that he does not believe moderns should be bought for investment purposes. Although I sell lots of moderns, I happen to agree with him, and never represent them as good investments. They are beautiful, fun to collect and build sets, and the largest coin dealer in the world, the U.S. Mint certainly sells them to many satisfied customers.
I think many of us who deal or collect ONLY in classics sometimes adobt a bit of a snobby attitude towards moderns. I remind them, moderns are not only a segment or area, but the LARGEST area of the market. If I am speaking to a customer who buys moderns and he or she so much as mutters the word investment even once, I IMMEDIATELY tell them they are going down the WRONG road and attempt to steer them to classics, recognizing that classics have many of the same risks.
You CAN make money money in moderns. Look at the Marines! I have paid over double the issue price for large groups of both mint state and proofs. Did these prove a good investment for their owners? I think so. I could name a dozen others real quick. However this is really speculation, not prudent investing.
Bottom line: This is America, to each his own.
John Maben
John Maben
Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
800-381-2646
<< <i>That said, of course there are many people making bad investments in moderns. If you want to help them, teach them how to identify the moderns that are worth chasing as an investment. I'm sick of the generalizations. >>
I think it is fair to say that you could easily replace the word "modern" with the word "classics" and the statement would be just as valid.
OK, my two cents here. I am currently selling off about $22,000 of Modern Crap and about $8,000 of MS64 and higher Morgans and Peace Dollars. All were collected between 1995 and 2003. 90% of the Modern Crap is slabbed and 100% of the dollars are slabbed. I have consigned the coins to a friend to sell on ebay so my selling costs are all ebay costs plus 10%. Approximately 1/4 of the collection has sold. In looking at the sales to date, both the modern crap as a whole and the Dollars are in the black. The return on the Dollars is about 8 points better than on the Moderns, but the biggest individual winners to date have been Modern pieces, some over 100% although more bullion related (platinum). Most common date Dollars in MS64 are performing in the red. Most clad Kennedy proofs are losers, but silver Kennedy proofs are winners. So it goes, plusses and minuses with both classics and moderns after holding for 2-10 years.
We can play the "What is the better investment?" game all day long. Frankly, I think coins in general are a terrible investment. Suggesting one really knows what will happen with prices in the future is a joke. Collect for enjoyment. Investing only takes the joy out of coins.
<< <i>There is NO wholesale secondary market in Modern coins! There are NO dealers who actively make buy/sell spreads unless the stuff is raw and they can score by getting these coins graded. Its not like buying a MOrgan where you can go anywhere and get a fair price. >>
This is one of the reasons dealers bad mouth the modern market. They have been left out. The modern players have a huge market, it is called the internet. Collectors don't need a dealer wholesale market to trade. In fact, the internet with Moderns provides a much closer spread for collectors which is a big plus.
Either you have a great sense of humor or you are clueless. Can you please let us all know what roock you just crawled out from under.
Yeah, I know. I need to sell these now before they lose all their value. Yeah, right.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
Perspective people. We need perspective.