New reports for our tourism shows
Domestic tourism down approximately 6%
International tourism down approximately 3.5%*
Construction jobs were way down. Something like 7000 lost over last year, 4000 in Aug. I assume much is residential new home. Lots of big projects going on downtown but housing seems to have slowed.
In my small town I notice that retail activity is tied closely to the arrival of government pension payments and EBT refills. During last 5 days of any month I see few shoppers at my four local grocery stores. Even ALDI, known for budget friendly prices, can be surprisingly devoid of shoppers.
During 2025 I have noticed some surprisingly competitive sealed bid results for my municipal clients implementing Federally funded infrastructure projects. This is happening despite the prevailing assumption that BABA (Build America Buy America) Compliance would drive up prices.
A local foundry recycling scrap has seemingly doubled its facility in the last year and displays a "Help Wanted" sign - perhaps to satisfy contractor demand for US sourced iron and steel products.
@batumi said:
Word is that diving boards will soon be installed on the Wall St. hi-rises.
I like your icon. It kindda sums up human life; giving everything the old college try wearing a monocled wink;.
When they stop being the source of all profits people will go back to looking for value. This could result in more erosion than just simple swan dives.
A lot of value investors have told me they just want to preserve assets at this point rather than chasing the next big thing.
The economy is on the brink of salvation itself. Between fusion power and AI most silver dimes might have a premium on their $4000 melt value in twenty years.
@hchcoin said:
Stock market - very strong with inherent risks going forward of a correction.
Interest rates - record lows since 2009. At some point will adjust upward.
Real Estate - moderate gains since meltdown because of cheap money (low interest rates) that have been artificially manipulated by the Federal Reserve. Once the Fed changes course, look out!
Bonds - lowest yields I can remember. What will happen if interest rates go up??????? Bonds will go down! No real good place to put your money if you are looking for income right now.
Inflation - still waiting for it to take off. When it does, the Fisher hypothesis tells us interest rates will rise. In addition, the upward sloping yield curve indicates higher future rates based on the expectations theory. In my opinion, it takes a lot more dollars to buy my groceries, utilities and gas for my car. Enough said.
Precious metals - has experienced a solid correction. In a holding pattern right now depending on items mentioned above. Market is rigged in my opinion but can still be used as a defensive hedge for serious financial meltdown.
Federal Reserve - waiting to see what Janet Yellen is really going to do. Tapering for now I guess. I think the Fed's hands are tied because the federal funds rate is effectively 0% and has been for years. Open market operations are useless at this point except for keeping the status quo.
Fiscal policy - government spending is out of control without adequate tax revenue. Based on debt ceiling discussions and the new health care reform, don't expect to see an improvement in the near term. Where is the inflation???????
Global outlook - Have not heard a large deal about terrorist activities in the short term. Once the media finds something to latch onto if a major event happens, could have serious short term effects on the markets.
Foreign exchange - I think the Fed likes a weak dollar with its stimulative monetary policy. The dollar is down big time since 2001 versus world currencies by design of the FED. At some point, this course will have to change.
Can't even remember when I posted that but it was a while ago if Yellen was still running the FED. Anyone who wants to understand the FED should read "The Creature From Jekyll Island." The first 100 or so pages is eye opening. It is a HUGE book
I've had an inordinate amount of clients this year who are barely making it. Usually my services have been from retirees or wealthy work from home types who just want something to do.
I always ask my clients why they want instruction. Everyone (as in 100%) of people so far have said the cost of groceries. Usually I get a couple "we wanted a fun day with the kids" or "we were just bored" etc.
In short, people would rather spend $200 now and skip a couple years of a learning curve and stockpile food now. Lots more questions on pickling, canning, dehydrating etc. this year.
Retirees and wealthy work from home types are the only ones buying actual mushrooms this year. A couple whales are gonna carry me through the season it seems. I haven't had any "can I get a pound or two" people yet, but a lot of "I will pay cash for whatever you get and I want it all".
Edit: I'm also hosting some community events to teach people for free. Usually they take a couple days to fill up. Every event so far has my inbox blown out with 200+ emails in the first half hour. Never seen anything like it.
@RedneckHB said:
Lots of talk of "winning", but not much of recession. Hmmmmm.
Your ears are selectively plugged.
Some recent headlines/trends:
.
Home Depot Cuts Forecast as Consumers Pull Back on Spending
The big box retailer said tariff costs and elevated mortgage rates had slowed consumer spending on new homes and remodeling projects.
.
Rising Delinquencies: The overall delinquency rate for consumer debt has increased to 4.49% in Q3 2025, up from 4.41% in Q2 2025. This marks the sharpest quarterly rise in over two years.
.
Credit Card Delinquencies: Serious delinquencies for credit cards have worsened, with 7.1% of balances becoming seriously delinquent, nearing levels not seen since 2011. This increase reflects the financial strain on consumers as interest rates rise.
.
Mortgage Delinquencies: Even the mortgage sector, traditionally stable, is showing signs of stress, with 1.3% of mortgage balances transitioning into serious delinquency, the highest rate in eight years. This trend suggests that rising interest rates are impacting homeowners' ability to manage their mortgage payments.
.
In 2025, auto loan delinquency rates have risen significantly, with 5.0% of outstanding auto debt being at least 90 days late, reflecting broader economic challenges.
.
Record subprime auto loan delinquencies hit 6.65% in October
@RedneckHB said:
Lots of talk of "winning", but not much of recession. Hmmmmm.
Your ears are selectively plugged.
Some recent headlines/trends:
.
Home Depot Cuts Forecast as Consumers Pull Back on Spending
The big box retailer said tariff costs and elevated mortgage rates had slowed consumer spending on new homes and remodeling projects.
.
Rising Delinquencies: The overall delinquency rate for consumer debt has increased to 4.49% in Q3 2025, up from 4.41% in Q2 2025. This marks the sharpest quarterly rise in over two years.
.
Credit Card Delinquencies: Serious delinquencies for credit cards have worsened, with 7.1% of balances becoming seriously delinquent, nearing levels not seen since 2011. This increase reflects the financial strain on consumers as interest rates rise.
.
Mortgage Delinquencies: Even the mortgage sector, traditionally stable, is showing signs of stress, with 1.3% of mortgage balances transitioning into serious delinquency, the highest rate in eight years. This trend suggests that rising interest rates are impacting homeowners' ability to manage their mortgage payments.
.
In 2025, auto loan delinquency rates have risen significantly, with 5.0% of outstanding auto debt being at least 90 days late, reflecting broader economic challenges.
.
Record subprime auto loan delinquencies hit 6.65% in October
.
Lol. You're in such a rush to criticize, denigrate and chastise that you haven't still haven't figured out what I wrote.
Maybe you should stop the constant personal attack toward me and try for once to understand what I wrote.
Ill try to clear it up for ya.....I was making fun of the orangeman and alerting to the non-mention of recession. Three years ago the forum was awash in recession this and recession that. And there was no recession. Now there is no talk on the forum...and hence.....hmmmmm.
@RedneckHB said:
Lots of talk of "winning", but not much of recession. Hmmmmm.
Your ears are selectively plugged.
Some recent headlines/trends:
.
Home Depot Cuts Forecast as Consumers Pull Back on Spending
The big box retailer said tariff costs and elevated mortgage rates had slowed consumer spending on new homes and remodeling projects.
.
Rising Delinquencies: The overall delinquency rate for consumer debt has increased to 4.49% in Q3 2025, up from 4.41% in Q2 2025. This marks the sharpest quarterly rise in over two years.
.
Credit Card Delinquencies: Serious delinquencies for credit cards have worsened, with 7.1% of balances becoming seriously delinquent, nearing levels not seen since 2011. This increase reflects the financial strain on consumers as interest rates rise.
.
Mortgage Delinquencies: Even the mortgage sector, traditionally stable, is showing signs of stress, with 1.3% of mortgage balances transitioning into serious delinquency, the highest rate in eight years. This trend suggests that rising interest rates are impacting homeowners' ability to manage their mortgage payments.
.
In 2025, auto loan delinquency rates have risen significantly, with 5.0% of outstanding auto debt being at least 90 days late, reflecting broader economic challenges.
.
Record subprime auto loan delinquencies hit 6.65% in October
.
Lol. You're in such a rush to criticize, denigrate and chastise that you haven't still haven't figured out what I wrote.
Maybe you should stop the constant personal attack toward me and try for once to understand what I wrote.
Ill try to clear it up for ya.....I was making fun of the orangeman and alerting to the non-mention of recession. Three years ago the forum was awash in recession this and recession that. And there was no recession. Now there is no talk on the forum...and hence.....hmmmmm.
Apology accepted.
.
How can anyone understand what you mean when you don't even bother to elaborate the slightest bit ?
For example, how or why would everyone assume your prior comment was related to the "orangeman" ?
Now there is no talk on the forum [of recession].
There is a lot of writing on this forum about exactly that (a recession and/or faltering economy).
@RedneckHB said:
Lots of talk of "winning", but not much of recession. Hmmmmm.
Your ears are selectively plugged.
Some recent headlines/trends:
.
Home Depot Cuts Forecast as Consumers Pull Back on Spending
The big box retailer said tariff costs and elevated mortgage rates had slowed consumer spending on new homes and remodeling projects.
.
Rising Delinquencies: The overall delinquency rate for consumer debt has increased to 4.49% in Q3 2025, up from 4.41% in Q2 2025. This marks the sharpest quarterly rise in over two years.
.
Credit Card Delinquencies: Serious delinquencies for credit cards have worsened, with 7.1% of balances becoming seriously delinquent, nearing levels not seen since 2011. This increase reflects the financial strain on consumers as interest rates rise.
.
Mortgage Delinquencies: Even the mortgage sector, traditionally stable, is showing signs of stress, with 1.3% of mortgage balances transitioning into serious delinquency, the highest rate in eight years. This trend suggests that rising interest rates are impacting homeowners' ability to manage their mortgage payments.
.
In 2025, auto loan delinquency rates have risen significantly, with 5.0% of outstanding auto debt being at least 90 days late, reflecting broader economic challenges.
.
Record subprime auto loan delinquencies hit 6.65% in October
.
Lol. You're in such a rush to criticize, denigrate and chastise that you haven't still haven't figured out what I wrote.
Maybe you should stop the constant personal attack toward me and try for once to understand what I wrote.
Ill try to clear it up for ya.....I was making fun of the orangeman and alerting to the non-mention of recession. Three years ago the forum was awash in recession this and recession that. And there was no recession. Now there is no talk on the forum...and hence.....hmmmmm.
Apology accepted.
.
How can anyone understand what you mean when you don't even bother to elaborate the slightest bit ?
For example, how or why would everyone assume your prior comment was related to the "orangeman" ?
Basement or cave?
Now there is no talk on the forum [of recession].
There is a lot of writing on this forum about exactly that (a recession and/or faltering economy).
.
No there isnt.
Can't believe you are trying to make some argument over this. Comical.
If the number of tractor trailers on the road means anything the economy is booming. Almost half of all vehicles on the road are semi trucks on I64.
I am a field service engineer which means I pretty much spend my life on the road and just the other day I was telling momma this very thing. The interstates are packed with big rigs, no idea what they are all carrying and where they are all headed but they are absolutely everywhere. Anything local concerning restaurants, retail, services seem to be empty and in the toilet. Hard to make sense of what's really going on. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
@Azurescens said:
I'm also hosting some community events to teach people for free. Usually they take a couple days to fill up. Every >event so far has my inbox blown out with 200+ emails in the first half hour. Never seen anything like it.
How can anyone understand what you mean when you don't even bother to elaborate the slightest bit ?
For example, how or why would everyone assume your prior comment was related to the "orangeman" ?
Basement or cave?
Now there is no talk on the forum [of recession].
There is a lot of writing on this forum about exactly that (a recession and/or faltering economy).
No there isnt.
Can't believe you are trying to make some argument over this. Comical.
.
High Horse or Anonymous Paid Spokesperson ?
(both).
PS:
I see several posts in this forum related to things in the economy that are down.
How can anyone understand what you mean when you don't even bother to elaborate the slightest bit ?
For example, how or why would everyone assume your prior comment was related to the "orangeman" ?
Basement or cave?
Now there is no talk on the forum [of recession].
There is a lot of writing on this forum about exactly that (a recession and/or faltering economy).
No there isnt.
Can't believe you are trying to make some argument over this. Comical.
.
High Horse or Anonymous Paid Spokesperson ?
(both).
PS:
I see several posts in this forum related to things in the economy that are down.
.
Seeing how this forum is 20 years old, I would hope so. And since PM folk are typically the most economically bearish folk on the planet I would double hope so.....but...I aint seein' the typical rhetoric. Hmmmm.
The economy is good for the individual that is willing to work.
The economy is not so good for institutions and financial markets due to a serious liquidity problem.
One will cure the other or the other will impact the one.
If you understand what is coming, then you can duck. If not, then you get sucker-punched. - Martin Armstrong
Comments
New reports for our tourism shows
Domestic tourism down approximately 6%
International tourism down approximately 3.5%*
Construction jobs were way down. Something like 7000 lost over last year, 4000 in Aug. I assume much is residential new home. Lots of big projects going on downtown but housing seems to have slowed.
“*added the international amount”
My Ebay Store
In my small town I notice that retail activity is tied closely to the arrival of government pension payments and EBT refills. During last 5 days of any month I see few shoppers at my four local grocery stores. Even ALDI, known for budget friendly prices, can be surprisingly devoid of shoppers.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
During 2025 I have noticed some surprisingly competitive sealed bid results for my municipal clients implementing Federally funded infrastructure projects. This is happening despite the prevailing assumption that BABA (Build America Buy America) Compliance would drive up prices.
A local foundry recycling scrap has seemingly doubled its facility in the last year and displays a "Help Wanted" sign - perhaps to satisfy contractor demand for US sourced iron and steel products.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
Word is that diving boards will soon be installed on the Wall St. hi-rises.
I like your icon. It kindda sums up human life; giving everything the old college try wearing a monocled wink;.
When they stop being the source of all profits people will go back to looking for value. This could result in more erosion than just simple swan dives.
A lot of value investors have told me they just want to preserve assets at this point rather than chasing the next big thing.
The economy is on the brink of salvation itself. Between fusion power and AI most silver dimes might have a premium on their $4000 melt value in twenty years.
Can't even remember when I posted that but it was a while ago if Yellen was still running the FED. Anyone who wants to understand the FED should read "The Creature From Jekyll Island." The first 100 or so pages is eye opening. It is a HUGE book
Very solid in the upper Midwest from my perspective. Job market is still very strong.
I teach people how to grow and forage mushrooms.
I've had an inordinate amount of clients this year who are barely making it. Usually my services have been from retirees or wealthy work from home types who just want something to do.
I always ask my clients why they want instruction. Everyone (as in 100%) of people so far have said the cost of groceries. Usually I get a couple "we wanted a fun day with the kids" or "we were just bored" etc.
In short, people would rather spend $200 now and skip a couple years of a learning curve and stockpile food now. Lots more questions on pickling, canning, dehydrating etc. this year.
Retirees and wealthy work from home types are the only ones buying actual mushrooms this year. A couple whales are gonna carry me through the season it seems. I haven't had any "can I get a pound or two" people yet, but a lot of "I will pay cash for whatever you get and I want it all".
Edit: I'm also hosting some community events to teach people for free. Usually they take a couple days to fill up. Every event so far has my inbox blown out with 200+ emails in the first half hour. Never seen anything like it.
Big troubles in Europe, British Gilt spreads have blown out on the term structure....French OATs also widening...CDS spreads also moving up.
I wouldn't call us a mansion or even a McMansion by comparison.....let's say we're a nice high ranch home in a bad neighborhood by comparison.
Lots of talk of "winning", but not much of recession. Hmmmmm.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
If the number of tractor trailers on the road means anything the economy is booming. Almost half of all vehicles on the road are semi trucks on I64.
Your ears are selectively plugged.
Some recent headlines/trends:
.
Home Depot Cuts Forecast as Consumers Pull Back on Spending
The big box retailer said tariff costs and elevated mortgage rates had slowed consumer spending on new homes and remodeling projects.
.
Rising Delinquencies: The overall delinquency rate for consumer debt has increased to 4.49% in Q3 2025, up from 4.41% in Q2 2025. This marks the sharpest quarterly rise in over two years.
.
Credit Card Delinquencies: Serious delinquencies for credit cards have worsened, with 7.1% of balances becoming seriously delinquent, nearing levels not seen since 2011. This increase reflects the financial strain on consumers as interest rates rise.
.
Mortgage Delinquencies: Even the mortgage sector, traditionally stable, is showing signs of stress, with 1.3% of mortgage balances transitioning into serious delinquency, the highest rate in eight years. This trend suggests that rising interest rates are impacting homeowners' ability to manage their mortgage payments.
.
In 2025, auto loan delinquency rates have risen significantly, with 5.0% of outstanding auto debt being at least 90 days late, reflecting broader economic challenges.
.
Record subprime auto loan delinquencies hit 6.65% in October
.
Lol. You're in such a rush to criticize, denigrate and chastise that you haven't still haven't figured out what I wrote.
Maybe you should stop the constant personal attack toward me and try for once to understand what I wrote.
Ill try to clear it up for ya.....I was making fun of the orangeman and alerting to the non-mention of recession. Three years ago the forum was awash in recession this and recession that. And there was no recession. Now there is no talk on the forum...and hence.....hmmmmm.
Apology accepted.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
.
How can anyone understand what you mean when you don't even bother to elaborate the slightest bit ?
For example, how or why would everyone assume your prior comment was related to the "orangeman" ?
There is a lot of writing on this forum about exactly that (a recession and/or faltering economy).
.
Basement or cave?
No there isnt.
Can't believe you are trying to make some argument over this. Comical.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I tho> @DNADave said:
I am a field service engineer which means I pretty much spend my life on the road and just the other day I was telling momma this very thing. The interstates are packed with big rigs, no idea what they are all carrying and where they are all headed but they are absolutely everywhere. Anything local concerning restaurants, retail, services seem to be empty and in the toilet. Hard to make sense of what's really going on. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
It's another revenue stream
**Your Mileage May Very **
What state do you live in ?
Corporate spreads are still very tight. If there is any material weakness, the bond market will sniff it out.
Not there.....yet.
.
High Horse or Anonymous Paid Spokesperson ?
(both).
PS:
I see several posts in this forum related to things in the economy that are down.
.
Seeing how this forum is 20 years old, I would hope so. And since PM folk are typically the most economically bearish folk on the planet I would double hope so.....but...I aint seein' the typical rhetoric. Hmmmm.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The economy is good for the individual that is willing to work.
The economy is not so good for institutions and financial markets due to a serious liquidity problem.
One will cure the other or the other will impact the one.
If you understand what is coming, then you can duck. If not, then you get sucker-punched. - Martin Armstrong
K shaped economy. Those with are doing great (stocks and other assets). Those without are getting killed (debt, repos).