@GoldFinger1969 said: Sotheby's saw a 24% drop in auction/art sales in 2024 which is a pretty big drop. So high-end $$$ purchases for luxury collectibles are definitely not what they were in 2021-23.
We may be seeing a bit of that in higher-priced coins and bills and of course, it can filter down a bit more into less-expensive purchases (but not 3- and 4-figure stuff)
Different market. Could also be explained by volume rather than decreased pricing. In my opinion, not a useful data point at all.
Not Surprised. Been getting lots of tire kickers / lowball offers.
Recently bought graded star note (auc) around 50 pct MV. So yes market soft but many deals buying. Cert Coins - no prob getting them 10 pct back of bid.
On balance, with my collectible interests and possessions, I don't pay much attention to the ebb and flow of markets. The memories associated with my collectible interests mean more to me than the value.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@seatedlib3991 said:
Look up the coin market of 1989-1992. I sold coins for a profit back then but here was the caveat. None of them >were Morgan Dollars and that was where the largest markdowns came. I also sold coins in 2007, which many >consider a high point. I lost money on a number of coins i sold at that time. They were all common date Seated >Halves I had found upgrades for.
Morgan Silver Dollars fell 75-90% before bottoming by 1994. Saints dropped 75-80% over the next decade, as gold eased lower and premiums dissipated.
@privatecoin said:
Some areas are definitely still going up. I've been working on completing a Washington quarter set for 5 years now >and many of the more common MS 66 dates are selling for way more than I paid for them in the past.
@privatecoin said:
Some areas are definitely still going up. I've been working on completing a Washington quarter set for 5 years now >and many of the more common MS 66 dates are selling for way more than I paid for them in the past.
Are they above the price levels of 2010-14 ?
Unsure. My opinion is the prices are not currently going down on many common date and grades in this series. Because we haven't reached previous highs does that mean the market is soft and getting softer?
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
@GoldFinger1969 . There was a period of time in the early 1990's when Coin World was full of ads offering (Common Date) PCGS 63 and 64 coins at really low prices. If I remember right 63 coins were selling for $28 to $35 and 64 coins were in the $45 range. I wonder how people who bought those made out. James
Sotheby's saw a 24% drop in auction/art sales in 2024 which is a pretty big drop.
If you're going to throw out random data points, here's mine - Heritage announced total sales volume of over $1.8 billion for 2024 - a new record for them and over twice their sales volume from four years ago. So, therefore, does that mean the market is hot?
@jmlanzaf said:
Different market. Could also be explained by volume rather than decreased pricing. In my opinion, not a useful >data point at all.
Volume, pricing, or a combination of both....it shows total revenue dropping significantly. It means that alot of demand was probably pulled forward from 2021-23 and shows that aside from the Top 1% of 1%....people are being a bit more cautious.
@2ndCharter said:
If you're going to throw out random data points, here's mine - Heritage announced total sales volume of over $1.8 >billion for 2024 - a new record for them and over twice their sales volume from four years ago. So, therefore, does >that mean the market is hot?
Maybe...but HA has been doing lots of business on comics, sports, and art/film collectibles.
And if you are comparing to 2020 as the starting point for that 4-year comparision, Covid impacted volumes bigtime in 2020. Took until 2021 before things recovered.
NFTs have imploded, and top-pop sports cards have been popped, too. That's a sign of lower enthusiasm at the top end, says nothing (I agree) about the lower end. But there is usually some spillover...question is...how much ?
@2ndCharter said:
If you're going to throw out random data points, here's mine - Heritage announced total sales volume of over $1.8 >billion for 2024 - a new record for them and over twice their sales volume from four years ago. So, therefore, does >that mean the market is hot?
Maybe...but HA has been doing lots of business on comics, sports, and art/film collectibles.
And if you are comparing to 2020 as the starting point for that 4-year comparision, Covid impacted volumes bigtime in 2020. Took until 2021 before things recovered.
NFTs have imploded, and top-pop sports cards have been popped, too. That's a sign of lower enthusiasm at the top end, says nothing (I agree) about the lower end. But there is usually some spillover...question is...how much ?
You're going to criticize the Heritage point after you tried to use Sotheby's to prove something?
Sears did zero business last year so tools and clothing must not sell anymore.
Seems to me that coins still sell well. What I have noticed on many coins when I do the research for historical prices, is that the prices, say in the late 2000s-2015, is that the prices are the same, or less when comparing auction prices today. Then I think, "ten years, fifteen years, no price movement...that is dead money". Worse, inflation for the last 10-15 years has rapidly increased.
Top pop, PCGS-CAC coins still crush it and you usually see much higher prices. Regular PCGS or NGC coins, not top pop and no CAC have lost money purchased years ago when using inflation adjusted numbers.
The market still hums along, but the value of coins, inflation adjusted makes coins a rather lousy store of value...IMO.
This is my general observation and shouldn't be used as a blanket reality for the whole coin market.
For me, it really puts a damper on buying coins. Buy a coin, hold it for ten years, sell it at an auction house which takes 20% and then still lose in real terms when factoring inflation rising.
The coin market is like our equities markets - just an illusion of price growth based on massive monetary inflation. Equities are mostly keeping up...collector coins, not so much.
@ARCO. The only modifiers I would apply are common , better date and rare or recently popular.
You can buy a 1858-o PCGS 40 Seated Half for just about the exact same price year in year out.
You will pay at least a 50% mark up on any better date coins in XF or better compare to 2015.
Look at dates such as 1840 sm letters, civil war dates, 1870-s, 1972-s in grades of VF or better.
Look at a coin such as the 1839 No Drapery and get back to me on what you are paying now. James
Lots of folks selling coins that are overpriced for the condition of the coin. Slabbed or not.
I have this coin and you do not and I want 3x or 6x. And it's not a real nice coin, has problems.
They are thinking if other real nice coins are getting it mine should be worth the same. Their looking for the fish so to speak. Ignoring the problems
Plus the real nice coins don't leave collections readily, just the problem ones first.
I pass on way more now than I use to when I was less knowledgable.
I'd like to revive this thread to see if opinions have changed since January. Admittedly I am only a small time eBay seller, but my sales have fallen off a cliff. Back when this thread first started my sales had slowed in December (not unexpectedly), but then picked back up after the first of the year. I had a really strong January and February, but then March came. I sold only one coin during the month of March. So far I have sold exactly three coins in April, which isn't enough to justify having an eBay store any longer. How does the market look for everyone else?
@safari_dude said:
I think eBay has helped to destroy value in many collectibles.
Yes, by exposing most coins as being (a lot) more common than previously believed and/or making it easy to buy most coins practically any time. This is especially true for many of the coins US collectors mostly bought pre-internet, such as a supposed key date Franklin half.
@SanctionII said:
If the market is really falling, that merely presents opportunity for buyers to finally acquire coins that they have long desired but could not afford. Sellers, should they choose to do so, can liquidate stale inventory and generate funds that they can use to purchase other, better quality coins at lower prices that will give them a better chance of reselling at a profit.
Depends what someone is looking to buy, how long the market or segment stays weak, and who owns it.
Coins with a (very) high preference are more likely to be held vs. sold at unfavorable prices, unless the owner is or becomes a motivated seller due to adverse personal circumstances or bought it for "investment".
My primary interest isn't a US series, but I'd potentially never be able to replicate my collection again, except at a much higher cost, because the coins I own in the quality I own hardly come up for sale or another close to comparable one might not exist.
I'm still waiting to buy coins I didn't wished I had bought, or which sold before I collected this series. This is back to 1988. I presume some have been resold, but privately or maybe through a dealer in another country I do not know.
Yes market not so great - but am holding the fort.
What I am seeing lately is more low ball offers (tirekickers). I just tell them stuff priced as marked - Or it’s already at best price. They out fishing for something someone is going to give away. Stuff them in the backfield lol.
@jmlanzaf said:
You're going to criticize the Heritage point after you tried to use Sotheby's to prove something?
Not at all.
But Sotheby's has an exclusive UHNW and HNW clientele that exhibits largely inelastic demand over time. Many of us -- including myself -- utilize HA but are not anywhere near that income demographic.
@ARCO said:
The coin market is like our equities markets - just an illusion of price growth based on massive monetary inflation. >Equities are mostly keeping up...collector coins, not so much.
Equities DO deliver real, inflation-beating returns largely because of real growth in the economy and dividend yields.
Coins are a hobby which should NOT be considered an investment, even for the majority of collectors here who are probably among the Savvy 1%. The Other 99% will almost certainly buy the wrong stuff or their timing will be lousy.
Small denomination coins have a demographic headwind that wasn't the case for those who started collecting in the 1950's, 1960's, or even the 1970's. Various gold and silver coins have the monetary metal aspect going for them.
Even Trophy Coins RARELY deliver double-digit returns over multiple time periods.
@UpGrayedd said:
I'd like to revive this thread to see if opinions have changed since January. Admittedly I am only a small time eBay >seller, but my sales have fallen off a cliff. Back when this thread first started my sales had slowed in December (not >unexpectedly), but then picked back up after the first of the year. I had a really strong January and February, but >then March came. I sold only one coin during the month of March. So far I have sold exactly three coins in April, >which isn't enough to justify having an eBay store any longer. How does the market look for everyone else?
Who are your usual buyers ?
If they are lower-income or middle-income individuals, that would not be unexpected given the financial and Consumer Confidence dropoff we all saw. Even well-heeled consumers are retrenching a bit.
If you sell gold or silver-related coins...the rise in the metal could have slowed demand.
@WCC said: @safari_dude said:
I think eBay has helped to destroy value in many collectibles.
Yes, by exposing most coins as being (a lot) more common than previously believed and/or making it easy to buy >most coins practically any time. This is especially true for many of the coins US collectors mostly bought pre->internet, such as a supposed key date Franklin half.
Didn't most U.S. Small Denomination coins rise up to about 2010, maybe 2012 ? The bear market in the PCGS 3000 didn't hit until about then.
@WCC said:
Yes, by exposing most coins as being (a lot) more common than previously believed and/or making it easy to buy >most coins practically any time. This is especially true for many of the coins US collectors mostly bought pre->internet, such as a supposed key date Franklin half.
Didn't most U.S. Small Denomination coins rise up to about 2010, maybe 2012 ? The bear market in the PCGS 3000 didn't hit until about then.
I don't remember, but eBay in and of itself probably isn't or wouldn't be the reason.
It's my inference that collectors will continue to pay the market price as long as they have an expectation of recovering most of their cost. They also do it to the extent they are willing to treat it as a consumption expense, not an "investment".
Also, the PCGS 3000 doesn't include what most US collectors buy, or at least not in the quality they usually buy it. It's above their price point or budget.
For me, it really puts a damper on buying coins. Buy a coin, hold it for ten years, sell it at an auction house which takes 20% and then still lose in real terms when factoring inflation rising.
Why would you expect anything else?
As other posts stated, coins produce no cash flow and or economic value add. A coin purchase is a sunk cost with "friction", selling and holding costs (insurance at minimum if you have it) during ownership. Other posts have described some coin purchases as "investment" but it's actually speculation, profiting off the price change, not actually producing anything.
Dealers or auction firms (including eBay) function as a form of market maker to make coins available that otherwise would not be. This isn't free and it's unreasonable to expect collectors to mostly break even or make money on something producing no economic value add.
For me, it really puts a damper on buying coins. Buy a coin, hold it for ten years, sell it at an auction house which takes 20% and then still lose in real terms when factoring inflation rising.
The real question is - are you buying coins for an investment or the pleasure of ownership? If you are in it for the investment, you are in the wrong game. On the other hand, how much enjoyment did you derive while owning the coin for ten years? After all, if you go to a movie, play a round of golf, or go on a cruise, what do you have to show for it afterwards?
I've read through this thread with some amusement... I guess I've been at this for a while now. I'm a collector... and this is a Hobby for me. I have a monthly expense calculated into my budget under "Entertainment" for just this purpose... just like "Going Out/Date Night" and "Home Repairs".
I don't expect to make any money on my coins, but sometimes I do. The 2011-ish peak coincided with the 2nd Purge of my 7070 Type Set. I kept the coins I knew wouldn't realize much money from an auction but sold everything else. By and large, I was able to recoup most of the money I had into the collection at the time but it was all mostly raw lower end material, so we're not talking huge sums of money.
Now, fast-forward some 14 years... divorce, getting out of debt, buying a house, getting back into collecting... and I've managed to accumulate a decent collection. At least by my standards... lol. I'm still looking at coins, but there are fewer and fewer coins I'm looking at these days largely because of prohibitive costs... many of the last few coins I need to complete numismatic projects are the more expensive pieces ($1-$3k coins) .
So, how does this translate to the current market and the OP's post? ... at least for me, I'm one of those tire-kickers that follows auctions but haven't bid on anything significant for nearly a year. The last big ticket coins I bought were big and gold back when gold had just crossed the $2k barrier. My brother gave me his childhood coin collection late last year and I've been going through that as well... I'll need just 2 raw Buffalo Nickels to complete that set... and 3 coins to complete a set of Indian Head Cents too... I'll likely wait for the Baltimore Whitman Summer Expo for those... I'm in no hurry for the current market.
Collecting: Dansco 7070; Middle Date Large Cents (VF-AU); Box of 20;
I’ve never, ever viewed numismatic purchases as “investments”, I view it as a hobby, and the cost of being a faithful steward for an interesting and important piece of US history. I do hope to recover the cost of most or all of my purchase prices, but I don’t fret at all over that aspect. My actual investments throw off income and growth, and help to finance my various hobbies, amongst them numismatics.
If I was a dealer, that perspective would obviously change.
Yes no doubt the market a little in the tank. It will be interesting to see where CDN goes on the commem and dollar markets.
One dilemma we solved at a recent coin club meeting / decided 1.25 x CAC MV a good startup asking price for CAC Witter Brick. My position - tend to agree but that 1.25 tackon maybe just a conservative base number. Many on the bay and some them bourse tables at recent show bumped up higher, especially if low pop.
Lesson: if your depressed about the market look for stuff that’s a good pickup. Work your angle, strategy / have fun. Don’t give y nice stuff away.
Funny, HLRC who deals in high quality collector coins, just said the market is sizzling and getting stronger in their newsletter today. Harry, the owner, would be in a position to know. So Debbie Downer posts in this thread seem to be in contrast to what Harry is saying. Who is correct, I guess I will see at CSNS and report back.
Coin collecting is fun for me and a nice diversion from the stresses of everyday life. I enjoy going to shows, talking with my coin buddies, the hunt of finding a new coin, the boards that our host sponsor, etc. I derive a lot of pleasure from this wonderful hobby. I have very realistic expectations and if I can get 80% of my money back I’ll be very happy. I don’t buy coins as an investment.
I never buy coins as investments it is pure fun to me and if ever my coins increase in value so be it and if not I do not care either. My coins will be will me till I pass away and whoever gets them afterwards did not pay a penny so all profit for them (they can sell them all and buy what they like).
Several of my coins in auctions on GC last night were VERY strong. The market for the common widget my be tanking but the quality and tougher to find coins is alive, strong and well!!!
Lots of generic pre 33 gold in 61,62 63 and 64 grade and raw is selling close to melt because some wholesalers are inundated by it right now.
With CACs?
Where are pre-33 going for melt? I will buy them immediately, please let me know.
Watching GC auctions, the pre-33s in decent conditions are going for absolutely insane premiums!
Even the detail grades are going for double digit ptemiums!
As I wrote in reply to your recent post in a different thread, in which you mentioned 1924 and 1904 $20’s.
“I checked MS65 1924 saints. The sales prices for April were: $3602, $3275, and $3404. And for March they were $3276, $3187 and $3336.
Next, I checked MS62 1904 $20 Liberty’s. The sales prices for April were $3443 and $3355.
I then looked at detail grade 1904 $20 Liberty’s. I found one of $3156 in April and one for $2925 for March.”
I’m sure there are many strong results to be found. But the ones I saw look like normal prices to me - not “insane premiums” or “double digit premiums”.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@lkenefic said:
I've read through this thread with some amusement... I guess I've been at this for a while now. I'm a collector... and this is a Hobby for me. I have a monthly expense calculated into my budget under "Entertainment" for just this purpose... just like "Going Out/Date Night" and "Home Repairs".
I don't expect to make any money on my coins, but sometimes I do. The 2011-ish peak coincided with the 2nd Purge of my 7070 Type Set. I kept the coins I knew wouldn't realize much money from an auction but sold everything else. By and large, I was able to recoup most of the money I had into the collection at the time but it was all mostly raw lower end material, so we're not talking huge sums of money.
Now, fast-forward some 14 years... divorce, getting out of debt, buying a house, getting back into collecting... and I've managed to accumulate a decent collection. At least by my standards... lol. I'm still looking at coins, but there are fewer and fewer coins I'm looking at these days largely because of prohibitive costs... many of the last few coins I need to complete numismatic projects are the more expensive pieces ($1-$3k coins) .
So, how does this translate to the current market and the OP's post? ... at least for me, I'm one of those tire-kickers that follows auctions but haven't bid on anything significant for nearly a year. The last big ticket coins I bought were big and gold back when gold had just crossed the $2k barrier. My brother gave me his childhood coin collection late last year and I've been going through that as well... I'll need just 2 raw Buffalo Nickels to complete that set... and 3 coins to complete a set of Indian Head Cents too... I'll likely wait for the Baltimore Whitman Summer Expo for those... I'm in no hurry for the current market.
Collector coins are a luxury goods which people buy when they are feeling good about their finances. Like many others, I’ve been getting beat up in the stock market every day.
I’m not comfortable with the price of gold bullion and think that it is now driven by panic buying. I wouldn’t touch a common date, high gold content coin right now. Like the stock market, there might be numismatic bargains out there, but the current market does not make them obvious.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
I usually hang out in the "fringe" areas (exonumia).
Recently on eBay there were two Colorado silver rounds. Both were from private mints. One circa 1976 and the other circa 1990. So that should limit the price: not a government mint product; and not very old either.
First was a 1990 town of Salida / Denver & Rio Grande Railroad. The one for auction was a nearly pristine cameo proof-like. The one I already had (and the only other one I have ever seen) is not proof-like and has obvious signs of handling (I would call it "AU-53" grade). So I put in a "nuclear" bid because I wanted this high-grade piece for my collection. I did end up winning it, but the price was pretty steep:
Then there was this 1976 Rico Colorado piece. I have three different types of these and I thought that was all there was. I have only seen a total of about 5 or 6 of these (of all types combined). But then this one turned up, it had the same obverse as one of mine, but the reverse die it was paired with was completely different than my three. So I had to put in a high bid for this one as well. Again, I won, but again, the price was pretty steep:
.
So it seems that the market for vintage bullion items (silver rounds and bars) continues to be fairly strong.
@ARCO -Well said, I largely agree with everything. That’s why I’m left scratching my head > @BillJones said:
Collector coins are a luxury goods which people buy when they are feeling good about their finances. Like many others, I’ve been getting beat up in the stock market every day.
I’m not comfortable with the price of gold bullion and think that it is now driven by panic buying. I wouldn’t touch a common date, high gold content coin right now. Like the stock market, there might be numismatic bargains out there, but the current market does not make them obvious.
Ditto, I’m in conservative buying mode and only hunting for coins that are either exceptional quality, or exceptionally priced. The market for “stuff” is quite soft, some series are very quiet. There’s opportunities in all types markets, and if I had the liquidity I’d be buying up a lot more knowing it might be a long hold time.
The gold surge is scaring me a little bit now, I like to see a gradual rise, not $100 a day. I’m not sure what to make of it, but Im reserving dry powder to DCA back into the stock market while everyone is panicking. My portfolio took a nice hit too, but old Buffett quote comes to mind in times like these “Be greedy when others are fearful, fearful when others are greedy”. I think many of us are in “wait and see” mode for a little while, but if the right coins show up I’ll find a way to make it work one way or another.
Lots of generic pre 33 gold in 61,62 63 and 64 grade and raw is selling close to melt because some wholesalers are inundated by it right now.
With CACs?
Where are pre-33 going for melt? I will buy them immediately, please let me know.
Watching GC auctions, the pre-33s in decent conditions are going for absolutely insane premiums!
Even the detail grades are going for double digit ptemiums!
And also, you can find some pre 33 for melt. It's usually junkier common date $20s or $10s, but if you're in the right place at the right time, you can snag a bargain. Just yesterday I saw two common date ms-61-62 graded ngc lib $20s sell for $3200 a piece plus shipping. Melt was probably around 3300 at the time, the listing was up for less than a minute before it was sold.
If you send me a message, I'll tell you where to look. The problem is that if you're not sitting online refreshing constantly, others who are doing that will beat you to the punch.
Things are ok on ebay for the things I sell (variety of collectibles). However... IMO..... it is all about gold (and silver) now.
We are in a 'sea change' taking place in the world and the U.S. Things that used to be more 'predictable' aren't quite so now. Whole structures are being looked at an revamped. In that type of environment, many are choosing to sit for awhile... or go to the most 'solid' and time tested asset.... gold.
I wish that my crystal ball worked!
All I can say is my bids for some of the earlier winter carnival tokens have come up short! We're not talking big dollars here, but someone has an interest.
Gold definitely seems to be the "commodity du jour". I just did an ebay search and I sort of raised an eyebrow at the number of uncertified DE's getting bids at well below spot. I guess it's a risk, but I'm pretty much risk-averse these days!
Collecting: Dansco 7070; Middle Date Large Cents (VF-AU); Box of 20;
Comments
Different market. Could also be explained by volume rather than decreased pricing. In my opinion, not a useful data point at all.
Not Surprised. Been getting lots of tire kickers / lowball offers.
Recently bought graded star note (auc) around 50 pct MV. So yes market soft but many deals buying. Cert Coins - no prob getting them 10 pct back of bid.
On balance, with my collectible interests and possessions, I don't pay much attention to the ebb and flow of markets. The memories associated with my collectible interests mean more to me than the value.
Morgan Silver Dollars fell 75-90% before bottoming by 1994. Saints dropped 75-80% over the next decade, as gold eased lower and premiums dissipated.
Are they above the price levels of 2010-14 ?
Unsure. My opinion is the prices are not currently going down on many common date and grades in this series. Because we haven't reached previous highs does that mean the market is soft and getting softer?
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
Clearly, either new coins were found and got Top Pop grades...or there were a bunch of coins that benefitted from gradeflation, right ?
I suspect the lower prices also might be that you have fewer collectors of this series among the young and/or new collectors ?
@GoldFinger1969 . There was a period of time in the early 1990's when Coin World was full of ads offering (Common Date) PCGS 63 and 64 coins at really low prices. If I remember right 63 coins were selling for $28 to $35 and 64 coins were in the $45 range. I wonder how people who bought those made out. James
Sotheby's saw a 24% drop in auction/art sales in 2024 which is a pretty big drop.
If you're going to throw out random data points, here's mine - Heritage announced total sales volume of over $1.8 billion for 2024 - a new record for them and over twice their sales volume from four years ago. So, therefore, does that mean the market is hot?
Member ANA, SPMC, SCNA, FUN, CONECA
Volume, pricing, or a combination of both....it shows total revenue dropping significantly. It means that alot of demand was probably pulled forward from 2021-23 and shows that aside from the Top 1% of 1%....people are being a bit more cautious.
Maybe...but HA has been doing lots of business on comics, sports, and art/film collectibles.
And if you are comparing to 2020 as the starting point for that 4-year comparision, Covid impacted volumes bigtime in 2020. Took until 2021 before things recovered.
NFTs have imploded, and top-pop sports cards have been popped, too. That's a sign of lower enthusiasm at the top end, says nothing (I agree) about the lower end. But there is usually some spillover...question is...how much ?
If you don't recognize a bit of sarcasm, then there is no point continuing this discussion.
Member ANA, SPMC, SCNA, FUN, CONECA
You're going to criticize the Heritage point after you tried to use Sotheby's to prove something?
Sears did zero business last year so tools and clothing must not sell anymore.
Seems to me that coins still sell well. What I have noticed on many coins when I do the research for historical prices, is that the prices, say in the late 2000s-2015, is that the prices are the same, or less when comparing auction prices today. Then I think, "ten years, fifteen years, no price movement...that is dead money". Worse, inflation for the last 10-15 years has rapidly increased.
Top pop, PCGS-CAC coins still crush it and you usually see much higher prices. Regular PCGS or NGC coins, not top pop and no CAC have lost money purchased years ago when using inflation adjusted numbers.
The market still hums along, but the value of coins, inflation adjusted makes coins a rather lousy store of value...IMO.
This is my general observation and shouldn't be used as a blanket reality for the whole coin market.
For me, it really puts a damper on buying coins. Buy a coin, hold it for ten years, sell it at an auction house which takes 20% and then still lose in real terms when factoring inflation rising.
The coin market is like our equities markets - just an illusion of price growth based on massive monetary inflation. Equities are mostly keeping up...collector coins, not so much.
@ARCO. The only modifiers I would apply are common , better date and rare or recently popular.
You can buy a 1858-o PCGS 40 Seated Half for just about the exact same price year in year out.
You will pay at least a 50% mark up on any better date coins in XF or better compare to 2015.
Look at dates such as 1840 sm letters, civil war dates, 1870-s, 1972-s in grades of VF or better.
Look at a coin such as the 1839 No Drapery and get back to me on what you are paying now. James
Lots of folks selling coins that are overpriced for the condition of the coin. Slabbed or not.
I have this coin and you do not and I want 3x or 6x. And it's not a real nice coin, has problems.
They are thinking if other real nice coins are getting it mine should be worth the same. Their looking for the fish so to speak. Ignoring the problems
Plus the real nice coins don't leave collections readily, just the problem ones first.
I pass on way more now than I use to when I was less knowledgable.
I'd like to revive this thread to see if opinions have changed since January. Admittedly I am only a small time eBay seller, but my sales have fallen off a cliff. Back when this thread first started my sales had slowed in December (not unexpectedly), but then picked back up after the first of the year. I had a really strong January and February, but then March came. I sold only one coin during the month of March. So far I have sold exactly three coins in April, which isn't enough to justify having an eBay store any longer. How does the market look for everyone else?
Philippians 4:4-7
Yes, by exposing most coins as being (a lot) more common than previously believed and/or making it easy to buy most coins practically any time. This is especially true for many of the coins US collectors mostly bought pre-internet, such as a supposed key date Franklin half.
Depends what someone is looking to buy, how long the market or segment stays weak, and who owns it.
Coins with a (very) high preference are more likely to be held vs. sold at unfavorable prices, unless the owner is or becomes a motivated seller due to adverse personal circumstances or bought it for "investment".
My primary interest isn't a US series, but I'd potentially never be able to replicate my collection again, except at a much higher cost, because the coins I own in the quality I own hardly come up for sale or another close to comparable one might not exist.
I'm still waiting to buy coins I didn't wished I had bought, or which sold before I collected this series. This is back to 1988. I presume some have been resold, but privately or maybe through a dealer in another country I do not know.
Yes market not so great - but am holding the fort.
What I am seeing lately is more low ball offers (tirekickers). I just tell them stuff priced as marked - Or it’s already at best price. They out fishing for something someone is going to give away. Stuff them in the backfield lol.
Just an anecdote but things were quite competitive on GC this evening.
Casual collector: Morgans & Peace Dollars & 20th Century Type Set. Successful BST transactions with Morgan13, CoinFinder, CoinHunter4, Bretsan.
Not at all.
But Sotheby's has an exclusive UHNW and HNW clientele that exhibits largely inelastic demand over time. Many of us -- including myself -- utilize HA but are not anywhere near that income demographic.
Equities DO deliver real, inflation-beating returns largely because of real growth in the economy and dividend yields.
Coins are a hobby which should NOT be considered an investment, even for the majority of collectors here who are probably among the Savvy 1%. The Other 99% will almost certainly buy the wrong stuff or their timing will be lousy.
Small denomination coins have a demographic headwind that wasn't the case for those who started collecting in the 1950's, 1960's, or even the 1970's. Various gold and silver coins have the monetary metal aspect going for them.
Even Trophy Coins RARELY deliver double-digit returns over multiple time periods.
Who are your usual buyers ?
If they are lower-income or middle-income individuals, that would not be unexpected given the financial and Consumer Confidence dropoff we all saw. Even well-heeled consumers are retrenching a bit.
If you sell gold or silver-related coins...the rise in the metal could have slowed demand.
Didn't most U.S. Small Denomination coins rise up to about 2010, maybe 2012 ? The bear market in the PCGS 3000 didn't hit until about then.
I am with @john_nyc1 . In the last month i have bid on more than 20 coins at G.C and my score is O for 20. james
I don't remember, but eBay in and of itself probably isn't or wouldn't be the reason.
It's my inference that collectors will continue to pay the market price as long as they have an expectation of recovering most of their cost. They also do it to the extent they are willing to treat it as a consumption expense, not an "investment".
Also, the PCGS 3000 doesn't include what most US collectors buy, or at least not in the quality they usually buy it. It's above their price point or budget.
Why would you expect anything else?
As other posts stated, coins produce no cash flow and or economic value add. A coin purchase is a sunk cost with "friction", selling and holding costs (insurance at minimum if you have it) during ownership. Other posts have described some coin purchases as "investment" but it's actually speculation, profiting off the price change, not actually producing anything.
Dealers or auction firms (including eBay) function as a form of market maker to make coins available that otherwise would not be. This isn't free and it's unreasonable to expect collectors to mostly break even or make money on something producing no economic value add.
For me, it really puts a damper on buying coins. Buy a coin, hold it for ten years, sell it at an auction house which takes 20% and then still lose in real terms when factoring inflation rising.
The real question is - are you buying coins for an investment or the pleasure of ownership? If you are in it for the investment, you are in the wrong game. On the other hand, how much enjoyment did you derive while owning the coin for ten years? After all, if you go to a movie, play a round of golf, or go on a cruise, what do you have to show for it afterwards?
Member ANA, SPMC, SCNA, FUN, CONECA
Market conditions are hard and brittle.
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
I've read through this thread with some amusement... I guess I've been at this for a while now. I'm a collector... and this is a Hobby for me. I have a monthly expense calculated into my budget under "Entertainment" for just this purpose... just like "Going Out/Date Night" and "Home Repairs".
I don't expect to make any money on my coins, but sometimes I do. The 2011-ish peak coincided with the 2nd Purge of my 7070 Type Set. I kept the coins I knew wouldn't realize much money from an auction but sold everything else. By and large, I was able to recoup most of the money I had into the collection at the time but it was all mostly raw lower end material, so we're not talking huge sums of money.
Now, fast-forward some 14 years... divorce, getting out of debt, buying a house, getting back into collecting... and I've managed to accumulate a decent collection. At least by my standards... lol. I'm still looking at coins, but there are fewer and fewer coins I'm looking at these days largely because of prohibitive costs... many of the last few coins I need to complete numismatic projects are the more expensive pieces ($1-$3k coins) .
So, how does this translate to the current market and the OP's post? ... at least for me, I'm one of those tire-kickers that follows auctions but haven't bid on anything significant for nearly a year. The last big ticket coins I bought were big and gold back when gold had just crossed the $2k barrier. My brother gave me his childhood coin collection late last year and I've been going through that as well... I'll need just 2 raw Buffalo Nickels to complete that set... and 3 coins to complete a set of Indian Head Cents too... I'll likely wait for the Baltimore Whitman Summer Expo for those... I'm in no hurry for the current market.
Successful BST transactions with: SilverEagles92; Ahrensdad; Smitty; GregHansen; Lablade; Mercury10c; copperflopper; whatsup; KISHU1; scrapman1077, crispy, canadanz, smallchange, robkool, Mission16, ranshdow, ibzman350, Fallguy, Collectorcoins, SurfinxHI, jwitten, Walkerguy21D, dsessom.
I’ve never, ever viewed numismatic purchases as “investments”, I view it as a hobby, and the cost of being a faithful steward for an interesting and important piece of US history. I do hope to recover the cost of most or all of my purchase prices, but I don’t fret at all over that aspect. My actual investments throw off income and growth, and help to finance my various hobbies, amongst them numismatics.
If I was a dealer, that perspective would obviously change.
Yes no doubt the market a little in the tank. It will be interesting to see where CDN goes on the commem and dollar markets.
One dilemma we solved at a recent coin club meeting / decided 1.25 x CAC MV a good startup asking price for CAC Witter Brick. My position - tend to agree but that 1.25 tackon maybe just a conservative base number. Many on the bay and some them bourse tables at recent show bumped up higher, especially if low pop.
Lesson: if your depressed about the market look for stuff that’s a good pickup. Work your angle, strategy / have fun. Don’t give y nice stuff away.
Funny, HLRC who deals in high quality collector coins, just said the market is sizzling and getting stronger in their newsletter today. Harry, the owner, would be in a position to know. So Debbie Downer posts in this thread seem to be in contrast to what Harry is saying. Who is correct, I guess I will see at CSNS and report back.
Best, DM
Coin collecting is fun for me and a nice diversion from the stresses of everyday life. I enjoy going to shows, talking with my coin buddies, the hunt of finding a new coin, the boards that our host sponsor, etc. I derive a lot of pleasure from this wonderful hobby. I have very realistic expectations and if I can get 80% of my money back I’ll be very happy. I don’t buy coins as an investment.
I never buy coins as investments it is pure fun to me and if ever my coins increase in value so be it and if not I do not care either. My coins will be will me till I pass away and whoever gets them afterwards did not pay a penny so all profit for them (they can sell them all and buy what they like).
Hard to overcome fees and "tuition"
Probably a good time to buy if you have disposable income.
It has taken me years to get to a point where I have narrowed my focus.
Getting away from the small dealer mindset and focusing on quality in a niche I really enjoy.
BST: KindaNewish (3/21/21), WQuarterFreddie (3/30/21), Meltdown (4/6/21), DBSTrader2 (5/5/21) AKA- unclemonkey on Blow Out
Several of my coins in auctions on GC last night were VERY strong. The market for the common widget my be tanking but the quality and tougher to find coins is alive, strong and well!!!
Anybody want to comment on tonight's CAC Approved Coinage auction at HA?
The coins I was watching at the Heritage sale tonight realized strong prices.
I won a single lot, and it hammered at my max bid, which was $20 over full CAC guide.
Where are pre-33 going for melt? I will buy them immediately, please let me know.
Watching GC auctions, the pre-33s in decent conditions are going for absolutely insane premiums!
Even the detail grades are going for double digit ptemiums!
As I wrote in reply to your recent post in a different thread, in which you mentioned 1924 and 1904 $20’s.
“I checked MS65 1924 saints. The sales prices for April were: $3602, $3275, and $3404. And for March they were $3276, $3187 and $3336.
Next, I checked MS62 1904 $20 Liberty’s. The sales prices for April were $3443 and $3355.
I then looked at detail grade 1904 $20 Liberty’s. I found one of $3156 in April and one for $2925 for March.”
I’m sure there are many strong results to be found. But the ones I saw look like normal prices to me - not “insane premiums” or “double digit premiums”.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Excellent
Collector coins are a luxury goods which people buy when they are feeling good about their finances. Like many others, I’ve been getting beat up in the stock market every day.
I’m not comfortable with the price of gold bullion and think that it is now driven by panic buying. I wouldn’t touch a common date, high gold content coin right now. Like the stock market, there might be numismatic bargains out there, but the current market does not make them obvious.
I usually hang out in the "fringe" areas (exonumia).
Recently on eBay there were two Colorado silver rounds. Both were from private mints. One circa 1976 and the other circa 1990. So that should limit the price: not a government mint product; and not very old either.
First was a 1990 town of Salida / Denver & Rio Grande Railroad. The one for auction was a nearly pristine cameo proof-like. The one I already had (and the only other one I have ever seen) is not proof-like and has obvious signs of handling (I would call it "AU-53" grade). So I put in a "nuclear" bid because I wanted this high-grade piece for my collection. I did end up winning it, but the price was pretty steep:
Then there was this 1976 Rico Colorado piece. I have three different types of these and I thought that was all there was. I have only seen a total of about 5 or 6 of these (of all types combined). But then this one turned up, it had the same obverse as one of mine, but the reverse die it was paired with was completely different than my three. So I had to put in a high bid for this one as well. Again, I won, but again, the price was pretty steep:
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So it seems that the market for vintage bullion items (silver rounds and bars) continues to be fairly strong.
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@ARCO -Well said, I largely agree with everything. That’s why I’m left scratching my head > @BillJones said:
Ditto, I’m in conservative buying mode and only hunting for coins that are either exceptional quality, or exceptionally priced. The market for “stuff” is quite soft, some series are very quiet. There’s opportunities in all types markets, and if I had the liquidity I’d be buying up a lot more knowing it might be a long hold time.
The gold surge is scaring me a little bit now, I like to see a gradual rise, not $100 a day. I’m not sure what to make of it, but Im reserving dry powder to DCA back into the stock market while everyone is panicking. My portfolio took a nice hit too, but old Buffett quote comes to mind in times like these “Be greedy when others are fearful, fearful when others are greedy”. I think many of us are in “wait and see” mode for a little while, but if the right coins show up I’ll find a way to make it work one way or another.
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And also, you can find some pre 33 for melt. It's usually junkier common date $20s or $10s, but if you're in the right place at the right time, you can snag a bargain. Just yesterday I saw two common date ms-61-62 graded ngc lib $20s sell for $3200 a piece plus shipping. Melt was probably around 3300 at the time, the listing was up for less than a minute before it was sold.
If you send me a message, I'll tell you where to look. The problem is that if you're not sitting online refreshing constantly, others who are doing that will beat you to the punch.
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Things are ok on ebay for the things I sell (variety of collectibles). However... IMO..... it is all about gold (and silver) now.
We are in a 'sea change' taking place in the world and the U.S. Things that used to be more 'predictable' aren't quite so now. Whole structures are being looked at an revamped. In that type of environment, many are choosing to sit for awhile... or go to the most 'solid' and time tested asset.... gold.
I wish that my crystal ball worked!
All I can say is my bids for some of the earlier winter carnival tokens have come up short! We're not talking big dollars here, but someone has an interest.
Gold definitely seems to be the "commodity du jour". I just did an ebay search and I sort of raised an eyebrow at the number of uncertified DE's getting bids at well below spot. I guess it's a risk, but I'm pretty much risk-averse these days!
Successful BST transactions with: SilverEagles92; Ahrensdad; Smitty; GregHansen; Lablade; Mercury10c; copperflopper; whatsup; KISHU1; scrapman1077, crispy, canadanz, smallchange, robkool, Mission16, ranshdow, ibzman350, Fallguy, Collectorcoins, SurfinxHI, jwitten, Walkerguy21D, dsessom.