@coiner said:
Tomorrow morning offering (if any) will be failed cc sales. They will not be seconds/returns.
As you move at least one week in the future, then you stand to get returns. Since this is a sellout, quite possibly the offer for open coins will be more than $104-----this should protect the USM against abnormally large returns.
It's only a sell out until the returns arrive. The folks who loaded up to play the lottery are not going to keep them. Retail buyers had a full 24 hours to get one to keep.
The only protection the Mint is going to have against returns is the fact that they sold a lot to dealers. Those won't be going back to the Mint. They will be dumped on the market, which will only exacerbate returns to the Mint from those only looking for a winner who didn't score.
If I'm wrong, very few will pop up at 7:30, and these will be big winners. Which will call into question your theory about medals not being wanted. Which I never agreed with.
My point all along was simply that $104 was too much for an ounce of silver with a mintage of 75K. I stand by that. They sold out because people were chasing the 1794. That's over.
If I'm right, dealers will dump excess inventory on the market, and retail buyers will return their $104 rounds when they can pick them up for significantly less on the secondary market, assuming they even want them. They will pop up at 7:30 every day, until eventually they are always available.
Without privys, there is no demand for 75K of them at $104, medal or coin. We'll see, but I think the chance to get one with a privy, without spending thousands, disappeared at 12:02 this afternoon. Not on some random morning in the not too distant future.
Because you might be able to buy them at 7:30 tomorrow, but there is no guarantee it will ship on Friday, as those bought yesterday have already started shipping. They very well might start selling medals they know are coming back before they are actually available for shipping, knowing that once they have constant stock no one will want them anymore. Hasn't anyone ever bought anything from them that did not ship right away?
@HATTRICK said:
Is the $2,000 privy price for open box ?
Based on how I am reading it, yes.
Yep, open box worth more. Sealed box w/privy only $150. Of course, you'd never know. $25 in hand vs $1875 in the bush.
Yup. $25 for a 2.4% chance at a winner implies a $1,041 value for the privy. But the fact is that both numbers seem too low right now. With privys going for $3-5K, a $2K bid seems low. And a $25 premium for a sealed box just seems stupid low until the dust settles.
Which is why I already advised just opening the box. I don't think there will ever be significant premiums for sealed boxes. The person who scored 51 earlier today is trying to cash in at $300 each.
They won't get anywhere near that, since the box is likely to only have 1 or maybe 2 privys. The balance of that box isn't worth anywhere near $15K less what the privys might be worth. No one with $15K to throw at this will be stupid enough not to realize that.
@coiner said:
Tomorrow morning offering (if any) will be failed cc sales. They will not be seconds/returns.
As you move at least one week in the future, then you stand to get returns. Since this is a sellout, quite possibly the offer for open coins will be more than $104-----this should protect the USM against abnormally large returns.
It's only a sell out until the returns arrive. The folks who loaded up to play the lottery are not going to keep them. Retail buyers had a full 24 hours to get one to keep.
I think it still qualifies as a sell out even if many are returned. The US Mint will eventually sell all of them, even if it takes a few years.
The only protection the Mint is going to have against returns is the fact that they sold a lot to dealers. Those won't be going back to the Mint. They will be dumped on the market, which will only exacerbate returns to the Mint from those only looking for a winner who didn't score.
I think you need to re-examine your position when dealers like Pinehurst are trying to acquire non-privy coins at a premium. Perhaps the design combined with the extra publicity of the privy gimmick is boosting collector demand more than you think.
If I'm wrong, very few will pop up at 7:30, and these will be big winners. Which will call into question your theory about medals not being wanted. Which I never agreed with.
My point all along was simply that $104 was too much for an ounce of silver with a mintage of 75K. I stand by that. They sold out because people were chasing the 1794. That's over.
I don't know. Maybe that applies for common bullion issues but for a unique collectible with a classic design, does a price of $80 or $90 or $104 really make a difference? I'm not sure the US mint customer/collector is that price sensitive, but I could be wrong.
If I'm right, dealers will dump excess inventory on the market, and retail buyers will return their $104 rounds when they can pick them up for significantly less on the secondary market, assuming they even want them. They will pop up at 7:30 every day, until eventually they are always available.
There will definitely be a market glut as there always is.
Without privys, there is no demand for 75K of them at $104, medal or coin. We'll see, but I think the chance to get one with a privy, without spending thousands, disappeared at 12:02 this afternoon. Not on some random morning in the not too distant future.
Because you might be able to buy them at 7:30 tomorrow, but there is no guarantee it will ship on Friday, as those bought yesterday have already started shipping. They very well might start selling medals they know are coming back before they are actually available for shipping, knowing that once they have constant stock no one will want them anymore. Hasn't anyone ever bought anything from them that did not ship right away?
I think it would be very ambitious an unnecessary for the mint to do this. Many will be returned for legit quality issues.
Purchased 1 yesterday and one today. Confirmation email 12:01 on both. 44359 difference between the 2 order numbers. Email at 1:01 that yesterdays order has shipped. Standard shipping.
@coiner said:
Tomorrow morning offering (if any) will be failed cc sales. They will not be seconds/returns.
As you move at least one week in the future, then you stand to get returns. Since this is a sellout, quite possibly the offer for open coins will be more than $104-----this should protect the USM against abnormally large returns.
It's only a sell out until the returns arrive. The folks who loaded up to play the lottery are not going to keep them. Retail buyers had a full 24 hours to get one to keep.
I think it still qualifies as a sell out even if many are returned. The US Mint will eventually sell all of them, even if it takes a few years.
The only protection the Mint is going to have against returns is the fact that they sold a lot to dealers. Those won't be going back to the Mint. They will be dumped on the market, which will only exacerbate returns to the Mint from those only looking for a winner who didn't score.
I think you need to re-examine your position when dealers like Pinehurst are trying to acquire non-privy coins at a premium. Perhaps the design combined with the extra publicity of the privy gimmick is boosting collector demand more than you think.
If I'm wrong, very few will pop up at 7:30, and these will be big winners. Which will call into question your theory about medals not being wanted. Which I never agreed with.
My point all along was simply that $104 was too much for an ounce of silver with a mintage of 75K. I stand by that. They sold out because people were chasing the 1794. That's over.
I don't know. Maybe that applies for common bullion issues but for a unique collectible with a classic design, does a price of $80 or $90 or $104 really make a difference? I'm not sure the US mint customer/collector is that price sensitive, but I could be wrong.
If I'm right, dealers will dump excess inventory on the market, and retail buyers will return their $104 rounds when they can pick them up for significantly less on the secondary market, assuming they even want them. They will pop up at 7:30 every day, until eventually they are always available.
There will definitely be a market glut as there always is.
Without privys, there is no demand for 75K of them at $104, medal or coin. We'll see, but I think the chance to get one with a privy, without spending thousands, disappeared at 12:02 this afternoon. Not on some random morning in the not too distant future.
Because you might be able to buy them at 7:30 tomorrow, but there is no guarantee it will ship on Friday, as those bought yesterday have already started shipping. They very well might start selling medals they know are coming back before they are actually available for shipping, knowing that once they have constant stock no one will want them anymore. Hasn't anyone ever bought anything from them that did not ship right away?
I think it would be very ambitious an unnecessary for the mint to do this. Many will be returned for legit quality issues.
We'll see. As far as I'm concerned, it's a sell out until it's not. Today it's a sell out.
If I'm right, and Pinehurst is wrong, it won't be a sell out for long. For the record, I've seen Pinehurst suddenly pull buy offers with no notice. They are just reacting to the fact that they are likely sold out, and can't get more, today, from the Mint.
So they are offering a modest premium. To people who don't yet have them in hand. Watch for that offer to be pulled in the next few days, rather than extended, or even increased. I think they are misreading the market. We'll see.
Yes, the difference between $80, 90 or $104 makes a huge difference. The Mint easily sold 275K uncirculated Morgan and Peace Dollars last year at $76, and struggled to sell 175K this year at $91.
Same with the proofs at the same $15 increase, and you will be able to order as many reverse proof sets as you want at a $30 increase to last year's price. All limited mintage collectibles with a popular, classic design.
People are willing to pay a premium, but not to be taken advantage of. People will clearly pay thousands for something with a mintage under 2K. Not so much as the mintages get into the hundreds of thousands.
75K is a lot for a medal at $104. Even this one. They probably could have sold 150K at $70. But they wanted $104. So they created a lottery to move 75K. And now the market will deal with the overhang of tens of thousands being sold that otherwise would not have been.
Pinehurst clearly does not see it that way. They are the professionals, and I'm just a know-it-all on the internet. Let's see who's right in a few weeks.
Also, respectfully disagree with "many will be returned for legit quality issues." Being a MS69 rather than a MS70 is not a "legit quality issue." Mint production quality is uniformly high for the numismatic issues, with very few isolated exceptions.
Many will be returned here because people played the lottery and lost. Unless the Pinehursts of the world are willing to take them off their hands at $125 each. They won't, when they get slammed in the next few days.
@coiner said:
Tomorrow morning offering (if any) will be failed cc sales. They will not be seconds/returns.
As you move at least one week in the future, then you stand to get returns. Since this is a sellout, quite possibly the offer for open coins will be more than $104-----this should protect the USM against abnormally large returns.
It's only a sell out until the returns arrive. The folks who loaded up to play the lottery are not going to keep them. Retail buyers had a full 24 hours to get one to keep.
I think it still qualifies as a sell out even if many are returned. The US Mint will eventually sell all of them, even if it takes a few years.
The only protection the Mint is going to have against returns is the fact that they sold a lot to dealers. Those won't be going back to the Mint. They will be dumped on the market, which will only exacerbate returns to the Mint from those only looking for a winner who didn't score.
I think you need to re-examine your position when dealers like Pinehurst are trying to acquire non-privy coins at a premium. Perhaps the design combined with the extra publicity of the privy gimmick is boosting collector demand more than you think.
If I'm wrong, very few will pop up at 7:30, and these will be big winners. Which will call into question your theory about medals not being wanted. Which I never agreed with.
My point all along was simply that $104 was too much for an ounce of silver with a mintage of 75K. I stand by that. They sold out because people were chasing the 1794. That's over.
I don't know. Maybe that applies for common bullion issues but for a unique collectible with a classic design, does a price of $80 or $90 or $104 really make a difference? I'm not sure the US mint customer/collector is that price sensitive, but I could be wrong.
If I'm right, dealers will dump excess inventory on the market, and retail buyers will return their $104 rounds when they can pick them up for significantly less on the secondary market, assuming they even want them. They will pop up at 7:30 every day, until eventually they are always available.
There will definitely be a market glut as there always is.
Without privys, there is no demand for 75K of them at $104, medal or coin. We'll see, but I think the chance to get one with a privy, without spending thousands, disappeared at 12:02 this afternoon. Not on some random morning in the not too distant future.
Because you might be able to buy them at 7:30 tomorrow, but there is no guarantee it will ship on Friday, as those bought yesterday have already started shipping. They very well might start selling medals they know are coming back before they are actually available for shipping, knowing that once they have constant stock no one will want them anymore. Hasn't anyone ever bought anything from them that did not ship right away?
I think it would be very ambitious an unnecessary for the mint to do this. Many will be returned for legit quality issues.
We'll see. As far as I'm concerned, it's a sell out until it's not. Today it's a sell out.
If I'm right, and Pinehurst is wrong, it won't be a sell out for long. For the record, I've seen Pinehurst suddenly pull buy offers with no notice. They are just reacting to the fact that they are likely sold out, and can't get more, today, from the Mint.
So they are offering a modest premium. To people who don't yet have them in hand. Watch for that offer to be pulled in the next few days, rather than extended, or even increased. I think they are misreading the market. We'll see.
Yes, the difference between $80, 90 or $104 makes a huge difference. The Mint easily sold 275K uncirculated Morgan and Peace Dollars last year at $76, and struggled to sell 175K this year at $91.
Same with the proofs at the same $15 increase, and you will be able to order as many reverse proof sets as you want at a $30 increase to last year's price. All limited mintage collectibles with a popular, classic design.
I get what you're saying, but I don't think we can make that comparison. This is not an annual series, it is a one-off unique offering. People know the Peace and Morgans are always going to be available and attainable and likely never have much premium whereas this is an unknown and $104 may be the cheapest price you can get one. And the post-issue glut may dry up and send prices higher prompting people to buy sooner than later. So we'll see. I'm not making any predictions either, just pointing out the differences.
People are willing to pay a premium, but not to be taken advantage of. People will clearly pay thousands for something with a mintage under 2K. Not so much as the mintages get into the hundreds of thousands.
75K is a lot for a medal at $104. Even this one. They probably could have sold 150K at $70. But they wanted $104. So they created a lottery to move 75K. And now the market will deal with the overhang of tens of thousands being sold that otherwise would not have been.
Pinehurst clearly does not see it that way. They are the professionals, and I'm just a know-it-all on the internet. Let's see who's right in a few weeks.
Also, respectfully disagree with "many will be returned for legit quality issues." Being a MS69 rather than a MS70 is not a "legit quality issue." Mint production quality is uniformly high for the numismatic issues, with very few isolated exceptions.
Many will be returned here because people played the lottery and lost. Unless the Pinehursts of the world are willing to take them off their hands at $125 each. They won't, when they get slammed in the next few days.
Edit: Order Acknowledgment @ 12:01 Eastern. Confirmation 12:14. Budget Shipping. I'll keep both and have graded based on the quality of the medals. I of course am also chasing the "Golden Ticket" and will sell if I get one and then definitely buy the gold. Undecided otherwise.
@pf70collector said:
Equate this medal to the thousands of restrikes of Libertas Americana medals by Paris mint. They do well in the $200 to 300 range.
@pf70collector said:
Equate this medal to the thousands of restrikes of Libertas Americana medals by Paris mint. They do well in the $200 to 300 range.
so people might want them in about 200 years?
The Paris Mint re-struck the Libertas Americana medals, in various metals, in at least a half dozen different years since 2000 and a few times prior to that in the late 20th century. They are pretty popular.
I would much rather have a gold PR70DCAM which is going to look fabulous in cameo, instead of one of these rather dull silver privy medals for around $4,000 range.
It is not that surprising that Pinehurst is offering $2,000 for a silver privy when they can sell them for $3,000-$4,000 currently. However, MS69's will not have the same collector demand, and the risk of getting one mailed to them of lower quality than a 70 has to be factored into their slightly lower offering price.
On a different subject, the silver medal is the same size as a silver eagle coin (1.598 inches), but the gold coin is 1.205 inches in diameter vs 1.287 inches for buffalos and eagles.
This smaller diameter for the gold results in a thicker coin in order to put “HUNDRED CENTS ONE DOLLAR OR UNIT” on the edge and to end up with high relief. Edited to add, that incused edge information seems wrong, but it is what the Mint website states.
@pf70collector said:
Equate this medal to the thousands of restrikes of Libertas Americana medals by Paris mint. They do well in the $200 to 300 range.
so people might want them in about 200 years?
The Paris Mint re-struck the Libertas Americana medals, in various metals, in at least a half dozen different years since 2000 and a few times prior to that in the late 20th century. They are pretty popular.
Yup. But, did they ever make 75K of them at one time? 😀
THIS is what the Mint has lost sight of in recent years. They make things in the high tens and hundreds of thousands, and then look to foreign mints that make things 5-10K at a time for inspiration when it comes to pricing.
The result is 100K Morgan and Peace Dollars, both uncirc and proof, sitting unsold. And a lot of these that will both be returned by retail buyers and dumped onto the market by dealers who only took them to get their mitts on the privys.
Not because they aren't lovely, and not because they are medals. But because 75K at $104 is more than their is organic demand for at that price. So the market will have to establish an equilibrium.
So what would be the consensus here should any of us get lucky to get a privy coin that grades out at 70 and you want to actually own one? No one can tell the future but based on other mint issues, would it be smart to sell for ~$5k and hope to re-buy for $2-3k? Or with only ~1800 out there and maybe 50% MS70's, is the better move to hold on to it and see them soar to $10-15k in 5-10 years time?
@ProofCollection said:
So what would be the consensus here should any of us get lucky to get a privy coin that grades out at 70 and you want to actually own one? No one can tell the future but based on other mint issues, would it be smart to sell for ~$5k and hope to re-buy for $2-3k? Or with only ~1800 out there and maybe 50% MS70's, is the better move to hold on to it and see them soar to $10-15k in 5-10 years time?
If you want to own it and are lucky enough to get one for $104, why mess around day trading it? Whatever happens in the future, you won by getting it for $104.
If you want to trade and think it's going to $10-15K, then you're a buyer at $5K, whether or not you get lucky at $104. Unfortunately, there is no trading vehicle for you to short it at $5K if you think it's going to $2K.
To me, it's a no-brainer. If you want to own one and you get one, you keep it. If you're not comfortable owning a $5K modern one ounce silver release, you take the money and don't look back. But I wouldn't hold it looking for a triple in the next few years, and I wouldn't sell it expecting to buy it back at half price in the intermediate future. Either could happen, but, as I said, I wouldn't day trade this medal.
Because there is no history of anything from the Mint with a mintage this low following the usual pattern of hot Mint releases that peak soon after release, and then either plateau or plummet. It could happen, but there is no history to look to for comfort.
@ProofCollection said:
So what would be the consensus here should any of us get lucky to get a privy coin that grades out at 70 and you want to actually own one? No one can tell the future but based on other mint issues, would it be smart to sell for ~$5k and hope to re-buy for $2-3k? Or with only ~1800 out there and maybe 50% MS70's, is the better move to hold on to it and see them soar to $10-15k in 5-10 years' time?
The last 2 gold commemorative coins in uncirculated have lower mintages and sell under $1000. I have US Mint medals with mintages of less than 200 that sell for less than $1000, too. There are lots of coins with 70 pops less than 100 that sell for less. I don't even like the modern look of it and would rather have a real 1795 circulated flowing hair dollar for the same privy money. I would sell, but if you really like it, then you should keep it. Many better coins IMO are worth owning.
The result is 100K Morgan and Peace Dollars, both uncirc and proof, sitting unsold. And a lot of these that will both be returned by retail buyers and dumped onto the market by dealers who only took them to get their mitts on the privys.
Could you please point me in the direction of where these 100k mintage Morgan and Peace dollars are that are left unsold?
The result is 100K Morgan and Peace Dollars, both uncirc and proof, sitting unsold. And a lot of these that will both be returned by retail buyers and dumped onto the market by dealers who only took them to get their mitts on the privys.
Could you please point me in the direction of where these 100k mintage Morgan and Peace dollars are that are left unsold?
2024 uncirculated Morgan and Peace Dollars. Maximum mintage 275K. Sales to date, approximately 175K. How many do you want at $91 each, because the Mint has around 100K of each they would love to sell you? Last year, the Mint easily sold out 275K of each at $76.
Same with the proof versions, although the Mint did not sell out 400K last year at $80. But, they did raise the price by $15 this year, dropped the maximum mintage to 300K, and still lost around 100K in sales as compared to last year.
The only reason that this will work for this medal is the original also looks like a medal with only the date on the obverse. If the mint pulls this trick on a later coin that doesn't include the entire obverse, it will fall flat is my guess.
The result is 100K Morgan and Peace Dollars, both uncirc and proof, sitting unsold. And a lot of these that will both be returned by retail buyers and dumped onto the market by dealers who only took them to get their mitts on the privys.
Could you please point me in the direction of where these 100k mintage Morgan and Peace dollars are that are left unsold?
2024 uncirculated Morgan and Peace Dollars. Maximum mintage 275K. Sales to date, approximately 175K. How many do you want at $91 each, because the Mint has around 100K of each they would love to sell you? Last year, the Mint easily sold out 275K of each at $76.
Sorry, but this is not the same thing. Having 100k left in inventory is not the same thing as only selling 100k. This problem you describe in a standard reduction in sales for continuing mint products. The first release usually sells the highest amount, and later releases trail off. It has happened enough that it can't be disputed.
The result is 100K Morgan and Peace Dollars, both uncirc and proof, sitting unsold. And a lot of these that will both be returned by retail buyers and dumped onto the market by dealers who only took them to get their mitts on the privys.
Could you please point me in the direction of where these 100k mintage Morgan and Peace dollars are that are left unsold?
2024 uncirculated Morgan and Peace Dollars. Maximum mintage 275K. Sales to date, approximately 175K. How many do you want at $91 each, because the Mint has around 100K of each they would love to sell you? Last year, the Mint easily sold out 275K of each at $76.
Sorry, but this is not the same thing. Having 100k left in inventory is not the same thing as only selling 100k. This problem you describe in a standard reduction in sales for continuing mint products. The first release usually sells the highest amount, and later releases trail off. It has happened enough that it can't be disputed.
Whatever. But I never said the mintage was 100K. I said they raised the price by $15 and sold 100K less than last year.
If you're saying that would have happened anyway, I can't argue with you one way or the other, because we've got no facts. What we have is the Mint selling 6 different Morgan uncircs at $80 each in 2021, with a mintage of 175K each. And 200K Peace Dollars on top of that. And having all of them sell for a significant premium to original issue price today.
They skipped 2022, raised the mintage substantially in 2023, to 275K each for uncircs and 400K for proofs, dropped the price by a few bucks, and easily sold out the uncircs and came close to selling out the proofs. Then they raised the price by $15 in 2024, left the uncirculated mintages alone and dropped the proofs by 100K, and totally killed demand.
All I'm saying is price impacts demand. If you can't accept that, and that demand only dropped, a lot, because that's what happens in the third year of a release, I've got nothing for you.
@JimTyler said:
Most dealers are choosing advanced release. Than means they got those before us peons could get them. Boycott advance release.
They're not "choosing" anything. Those are just the first ones to hit the TPGs, because they are the ones that are shipped "in advance" by the Mint. The TPGs will be flooded with the regular bulk purchase medals from the dealers in another week or two, dwarfing the Advance Release pops. FDOI, First Release, etc.
The dealers pay extra for Advance Release. As everyone has noted, they are limited to 10% of the total mintage, so people chasing that pay a premium for it, and dealers will of course want the attribution if the item is eligible. But Advance Release will be a small subset of total graded pops, as they always are.
If you want to take a stand, you will boycott any privy from a dealer, due to the way they were distributed, guaranteeing dealers quantity, since they were allowed to buy in quantity, while relegated us to fight over scraps, with a 2.4% chance to get one when we were limited to a HHL of 1.
All I'm saying is price impacts demand. If you can't accept that, and that demand only dropped, a lot, because that's what happens in the third year of a release, I've got nothing for you.
100k mintage is the pivot point for most of these coins, everybody here knew the 275k mintage was too high and avoided the later releases. They have behaved like the silver eagles. This flowing hair medal is a one off that won't be continuing as a yearly medal (at least I have not heard if it will), so what you describe doesn't apply to this. There are only 75k made and that's it in silver. I wish it had been 50k. You were right about it not selling out the first day, the mint should be concerned they couldn't scrape up enough 1 HHL orders to get this done. If aftermarket prices drop on non privys, then they will likely be flooded with returns. I think the price holds once the flipping dies down and goes higher. This medal is a tv show marketing dream come true for some.
@JimTyler said:
Most dealers are choosing advanced release. Than means they got those before us peons could get them. Boycott advance release.
They're not "choosing" anything. Those are just the first ones to hit the TPGs, because they are the ones that are shipped "in advance" by the Mint. The TPGs will be flooded with the regular bulk purchase medals from the dealers in another week or two, dwarfing the Advance Release pops. FDOI, First Release, etc.
The dealers pay extra for Advance Release. As everyone has noted, they are limited to 10% of the total mintage, so people chasing that pay a premium for it, and dealers will of course want the attribution if the item is eligible. But Advance Release will be a small subset of total graded pops, as they always are.
If you want to take a stand, you will boycott any privy from a dealer, due to the way they were distributed, guaranteeing dealers quantity, since they were allowed to buy in quantity, while relegated us to fight over scraps, with a 2.4% chance to get one when we were limited to a HHL of 1.
If they’re not choosing why are there 74 slabbed “base” without it.
The first strike pop numbers are usually more indicative of minting quality because they do not have the option of saying only grade 70's, like the advanced relief dealers can do, if they choose.
At this early stage, this indicates a good chance that less than half of the medals submitted by the public for grading will be 70's.
@Goldminers said:
The first strike pop numbers are usually more indicative of minting quality because they do not have the option of saying only grade 70's, like the advanced relief dealers can do, if they choose.
Any dealer can specify for a min grade 70 in any label (first strike, advance release, first day, regular blue label, etc). Don’t fool yourself thinking first strike 70 pop reports aren’t skewed, because they are.
@Goldminers said:
The first strike pop numbers are usually more indicative of minting quality because they do not have the option of saying only grade 70's, like the advanced relief dealers can do, if they choose.
Any dealer can specify for a min grade 70 in any label (first strike, advance release, first day, regular blue label, etc). Don’t fool yourself thinking first strike 70 pop reports aren’t skewed, because they are.
My mistake. I thought only bulk submitters could specify a minimum grade of 70. I guess that is no longer the case.
However, my point about lower quality is still valid. There could have been many more medals submitted than were graded 70, because there were some rejected that did not meet the minimum grade of 70. Since there are more 69's listed in First Strike, than 70's graded, it means an even larger percentage of medals are lower quality than 70 than those populations indicate.
Also, the 74 base numbers are all 69's. That is unusual.
@Goldminers said: The first strike pop numbers are usually more indicative of minting quality because they do not have the option of saying only grade 70's, like the advanced relief dealers can do, if they choose.
At this early stage, this indicates a good chance that less than half of the medals submitted by the public for grading will be 70's.
@1madman said: Any dealer can specify for a min grade 70 in any label (first strike, advance release, first day, regular blue label, etc). Don’t fool yourself thinking first strike 70 pop reports aren’t skewed, because they are.
I am NOT privy to all of the details of all the programs, or the exceptions that PCGS grants.
NOT saying that this rule is applicable to every program. Based on this post, I know that it is not. Just saying that the restriction appears to be in place for a least one variant of the program.
@JimTyler said:
Most dealers are choosing advanced release. Than means they got those before us peons could get them. Boycott advance release.
They're not "choosing" anything. Those are just the first ones to hit the TPGs, because they are the ones that are shipped "in advance" by the Mint. The TPGs will be flooded with the regular bulk purchase medals from the dealers in another week or two, dwarfing the Advance Release pops. FDOI, First Release, etc.
The dealers pay extra for Advance Release. As everyone has noted, they are limited to 10% of the total mintage, so people chasing that pay a premium for it, and dealers will of course want the attribution if the item is eligible. But Advance Release will be a small subset of total graded pops, as they always are.
If you want to take a stand, you will boycott any privy from a dealer, due to the way they were distributed, guaranteeing dealers quantity, since they were allowed to buy in quantity, while relegated us to fight over scraps, with a 2.4% chance to get one when we were limited to a HHL of 1.
If they’re not choosing why are there 74 slabbed “base” without it.
That, I cannot answer, since the only things out before Tuesday were Advance Release eligible, and there is certainly no discount attached to an Advance Release slab. In any event, "most dealers are choosing advance release" is no longer an option, so it's only a matter of time before Advance Release slabs become a tiny subset of the pop at all the TPGs.
@Goldminers said:
The first strike pop numbers are usually more indicative of minting quality because they do not have the option of saying only grade 70's, like the advanced relief dealers can do, if they choose.
At this early stage, this indicates a good chance that less than half of the medals submitted by the public for grading will be 70's.
Actually, they do. Bulk submitters always have the option of specifying a minimum grade of 70, regardless of what they have placed on the label.
@Goldminers said:
The first strike pop numbers are usually more indicative of minting quality because they do not have the option of saying only grade 70's, like the advanced relief dealers can do, if they choose.
Any dealer can specify for a min grade 70 in any label (first strike, advance release, first day, regular blue label, etc). Don’t fool yourself thinking first strike 70 pop reports aren’t skewed, because they are.
My mistake. I thought only bulk submitters could specify a minimum grade of 70. I guess that is no longer the case.
However, my point about lower quality is still valid. There could have been many more medals submitted than were graded 70, because there were some rejected that did not meet the minimum grade of 70. Since there are more 69's listed in First Strike, than 70's graded, it means an even larger percentage of medals are lower quality than 70 than those populations indicate.
Also, the 74 base numbers are all 69's. That is unusual.
Yes, only bulk submitters could specify a minimum grade of 70. But, anyone can be a bulk submitter. Not just dealers. You and I could as well, as long as we meet the volume requirement. Typically 100 or so. Not in total, but per individual coin/medal.
@Goldminers said:
The first strike pop numbers are usually more indicative of minting quality because they do not have the option of saying only grade 70's, like the advanced relief dealers can do, if they choose.
At this early stage, this indicates a good chance that less than half of the medals submitted by the public for grading will be 70's.
Actually, they do. Bulk submitters always have the option of specifying a minimum grade of 70, regardless of what they have placed on the label.
And this directly from the PCGS webpage. Seems to be a contradiction as @MetroD also pointed out above.
Comments
It's only a sell out until the returns arrive. The folks who loaded up to play the lottery are not going to keep them. Retail buyers had a full 24 hours to get one to keep.
The only protection the Mint is going to have against returns is the fact that they sold a lot to dealers. Those won't be going back to the Mint. They will be dumped on the market, which will only exacerbate returns to the Mint from those only looking for a winner who didn't score.
If I'm wrong, very few will pop up at 7:30, and these will be big winners. Which will call into question your theory about medals not being wanted. Which I never agreed with.
My point all along was simply that $104 was too much for an ounce of silver with a mintage of 75K. I stand by that. They sold out because people were chasing the 1794. That's over.
If I'm right, dealers will dump excess inventory on the market, and retail buyers will return their $104 rounds when they can pick them up for significantly less on the secondary market, assuming they even want them. They will pop up at 7:30 every day, until eventually they are always available.
Without privys, there is no demand for 75K of them at $104, medal or coin. We'll see, but I think the chance to get one with a privy, without spending thousands, disappeared at 12:02 this afternoon. Not on some random morning in the not too distant future.
Because you might be able to buy them at 7:30 tomorrow, but there is no guarantee it will ship on Friday, as those bought yesterday have already started shipping. They very well might start selling medals they know are coming back before they are actually available for shipping, knowing that once they have constant stock no one will want them anymore. Hasn't anyone ever bought anything from them that did not ship right away?
Why any greater than on a sealed VB?
Where on the medal will the privy mark be on the obverse or reverse?
Thanks
Frank D
Yup. $25 for a 2.4% chance at a winner implies a $1,041 value for the privy. But the fact is that both numbers seem too low right now. With privys going for $3-5K, a $2K bid seems low. And a $25 premium for a sealed box just seems stupid low until the dust settles.
Which is why I already advised just opening the box. I don't think there will ever be significant premiums for sealed boxes. The person who scored 51 earlier today is trying to cash in at $300 each.
They won't get anywhere near that, since the box is likely to only have 1 or maybe 2 privys. The balance of that box isn't worth anywhere near $15K less what the privys might be worth. No one with $15K to throw at this will be stupid enough not to realize that.
I think it still qualifies as a sell out even if many are returned. The US Mint will eventually sell all of them, even if it takes a few years.
I think you need to re-examine your position when dealers like Pinehurst are trying to acquire non-privy coins at a premium. Perhaps the design combined with the extra publicity of the privy gimmick is boosting collector demand more than you think.
I don't know. Maybe that applies for common bullion issues but for a unique collectible with a classic design, does a price of $80 or $90 or $104 really make a difference? I'm not sure the US mint customer/collector is that price sensitive, but I could be wrong.
There will definitely be a market glut as there always is.
I think it would be very ambitious an unnecessary for the mint to do this. Many will be returned for legit quality issues.
Obverse...
edited to add: My medal will be delivered tomorrow noon via UPS.
😊
Purchased 1 yesterday and one today. Confirmation email 12:01 on both. 44359 difference between the 2 order numbers. Email at 1:01 that yesterdays order has shipped. Standard shipping.
We'll see. As far as I'm concerned, it's a sell out until it's not. Today it's a sell out.
If I'm right, and Pinehurst is wrong, it won't be a sell out for long. For the record, I've seen Pinehurst suddenly pull buy offers with no notice. They are just reacting to the fact that they are likely sold out, and can't get more, today, from the Mint.
So they are offering a modest premium. To people who don't yet have them in hand. Watch for that offer to be pulled in the next few days, rather than extended, or even increased. I think they are misreading the market. We'll see.
Yes, the difference between $80, 90 or $104 makes a huge difference. The Mint easily sold 275K uncirculated Morgan and Peace Dollars last year at $76, and struggled to sell 175K this year at $91.
Same with the proofs at the same $15 increase, and you will be able to order as many reverse proof sets as you want at a $30 increase to last year's price. All limited mintage collectibles with a popular, classic design.
People are willing to pay a premium, but not to be taken advantage of. People will clearly pay thousands for something with a mintage under 2K. Not so much as the mintages get into the hundreds of thousands.
75K is a lot for a medal at $104. Even this one. They probably could have sold 150K at $70. But they wanted $104. So they created a lottery to move 75K. And now the market will deal with the overhang of tens of thousands being sold that otherwise would not have been.
Pinehurst clearly does not see it that way. They are the professionals, and I'm just a know-it-all on the internet. Let's see who's right in a few weeks.
Also, respectfully disagree with "many will be returned for legit quality issues." Being a MS69 rather than a MS70 is not a "legit quality issue." Mint production quality is uniformly high for the numismatic issues, with very few isolated exceptions.
Many will be returned here because people played the lottery and lost. Unless the Pinehursts of the world are willing to take them off their hands at $125 each. They won't, when they get slammed in the next few days.
I get what you're saying, but I don't think we can make that comparison. This is not an annual series, it is a one-off unique offering. People know the Peace and Morgans are always going to be available and attainable and likely never have much premium whereas this is an unknown and $104 may be the cheapest price you can get one. And the post-issue glut may dry up and send prices higher prompting people to buy sooner than later. So we'll see. I'm not making any predictions either, just pointing out the differences.
this doesn't turn into a fiasco and the mint will be asking "what's next?"
high potential for a series
I just wish the mint had enough 1794 dollars to overstrike
Edit: Order Acknowledgment @ 12:01 Eastern. Confirmation 12:14. Budget Shipping. I'll keep both and have graded based on the quality of the medals. I of course am also chasing the "Golden Ticket" and will sell if I get one and then definitely buy the gold. Undecided otherwise.
Equate this medal to the thousands of restrikes of Libertas Americana medals by Paris mint. They do well in the $200 to 300 range.
Box of 20
so people might want them in about 200 years?
The Paris Mint re-struck the Libertas Americana medals, in various metals, in at least a half dozen different years since 2000 and a few times prior to that in the late 20th century. They are pretty popular.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
I would much rather have a gold PR70DCAM which is going to look fabulous in cameo, instead of one of these rather dull silver privy medals for around $4,000 range.
It is not that surprising that Pinehurst is offering $2,000 for a silver privy when they can sell them for $3,000-$4,000 currently. However, MS69's will not have the same collector demand, and the risk of getting one mailed to them of lower quality than a 70 has to be factored into their slightly lower offering price.
On a different subject, the silver medal is the same size as a silver eagle coin (1.598 inches), but the gold coin is 1.205 inches in diameter vs 1.287 inches for buffalos and eagles.
This smaller diameter for the gold results in a thicker coin in order to put “HUNDRED CENTS ONE DOLLAR OR UNIT” on the edge and to end up with high relief. Edited to add, that incused edge information seems wrong, but it is what the Mint website states.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Yup. But, did they ever make 75K of them at one time? 😀
THIS is what the Mint has lost sight of in recent years. They make things in the high tens and hundreds of thousands, and then look to foreign mints that make things 5-10K at a time for inspiration when it comes to pricing.
The result is 100K Morgan and Peace Dollars, both uncirc and proof, sitting unsold. And a lot of these that will both be returned by retail buyers and dumped onto the market by dealers who only took them to get their mitts on the privys.
Not because they aren't lovely, and not because they are medals. But because 75K at $104 is more than their is organic demand for at that price. So the market will have to establish an equilibrium.
So what would be the consensus here should any of us get lucky to get a privy coin that grades out at 70 and you want to actually own one? No one can tell the future but based on other mint issues, would it be smart to sell for ~$5k and hope to re-buy for $2-3k? Or with only ~1800 out there and maybe 50% MS70's, is the better move to hold on to it and see them soar to $10-15k in 5-10 years time?
.
If you want to own it and are lucky enough to get one for $104, why mess around day trading it? Whatever happens in the future, you won by getting it for $104.
If you want to trade and think it's going to $10-15K, then you're a buyer at $5K, whether or not you get lucky at $104. Unfortunately, there is no trading vehicle for you to short it at $5K if you think it's going to $2K.
To me, it's a no-brainer. If you want to own one and you get one, you keep it. If you're not comfortable owning a $5K modern one ounce silver release, you take the money and don't look back. But I wouldn't hold it looking for a triple in the next few years, and I wouldn't sell it expecting to buy it back at half price in the intermediate future. Either could happen, but, as I said, I wouldn't day trade this medal.
Because there is no history of anything from the Mint with a mintage this low following the usual pattern of hot Mint releases that peak soon after release, and then either plateau or plummet. It could happen, but there is no history to look to for comfort.
The last 2 gold commemorative coins in uncirculated have lower mintages and sell under $1000. I have US Mint medals with mintages of less than 200 that sell for less than $1000, too. There are lots of coins with 70 pops less than 100 that sell for less. I don't even like the modern look of it and would rather have a real 1795 circulated flowing hair dollar for the same privy money. I would sell, but if you really like it, then you should keep it. Many better coins IMO are worth owning.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Perhaps the "special" coins shipped at 7PM?
Could you please point me in the direction of where these 100k mintage Morgan and Peace dollars are that are left unsold?
It was over before it started. One fleeting second and voila! GONE!
7:31 didn't even hit!
I'll leave it in the cart.....who knows.
😊
Popped up for less than a minute this morning.
Successful transactions with forum members commoncents05, dmarks, Coinscratch, Bullsitter, DCW, TwoSides2aCoin, Namvet69 (facilitated for 3rd party), Tetromibi, ProfLizMay, MASSU2, MWallace, Bruce7789, Twobitcollector, 78saen, U1chicago, Rob41281
Got 1 more.
2024 uncirculated Morgan and Peace Dollars. Maximum mintage 275K. Sales to date, approximately 175K. How many do you want at $91 each, because the Mint has around 100K of each they would love to sell you? Last year, the Mint easily sold out 275K of each at $76.
Same with the proof versions, although the Mint did not sell out 400K last year at $80. But, they did raise the price by $15 this year, dropped the maximum mintage to 300K, and still lost around 100K in sales as compared to last year.
The only reason that this will work for this medal is the original also looks like a medal with only the date on the obverse. If the mint pulls this trick on a later coin that doesn't include the entire obverse, it will fall flat is my guess.
Pops as of 10/17/2024................22 more privies graded, 186 more non-privies graded.
Sorry, but this is not the same thing. Having 100k left in inventory is not the same thing as only selling 100k. This problem you describe in a standard reduction in sales for continuing mint products. The first release usually sells the highest amount, and later releases trail off. It has happened enough that it can't be disputed.
Most dealers are choosing advanced release. Than means they got those before us peons could get them. Boycott advance release.
Whatever. But I never said the mintage was 100K. I said they raised the price by $15 and sold 100K less than last year.
If you're saying that would have happened anyway, I can't argue with you one way or the other, because we've got no facts. What we have is the Mint selling 6 different Morgan uncircs at $80 each in 2021, with a mintage of 175K each. And 200K Peace Dollars on top of that. And having all of them sell for a significant premium to original issue price today.
They skipped 2022, raised the mintage substantially in 2023, to 275K each for uncircs and 400K for proofs, dropped the price by a few bucks, and easily sold out the uncircs and came close to selling out the proofs. Then they raised the price by $15 in 2024, left the uncirculated mintages alone and dropped the proofs by 100K, and totally killed demand.
All I'm saying is price impacts demand. If you can't accept that, and that demand only dropped, a lot, because that's what happens in the third year of a release, I've got nothing for you.
Dang, I thought I was on the wrong thread....
They're not "choosing" anything. Those are just the first ones to hit the TPGs, because they are the ones that are shipped "in advance" by the Mint. The TPGs will be flooded with the regular bulk purchase medals from the dealers in another week or two, dwarfing the Advance Release pops. FDOI, First Release, etc.
The dealers pay extra for Advance Release. As everyone has noted, they are limited to 10% of the total mintage, so people chasing that pay a premium for it, and dealers will of course want the attribution if the item is eligible. But Advance Release will be a small subset of total graded pops, as they always are.
If you want to take a stand, you will boycott any privy from a dealer, due to the way they were distributed, guaranteeing dealers quantity, since they were allowed to buy in quantity, while relegated us to fight over scraps, with a 2.4% chance to get one when we were limited to a HHL of 1.
100k mintage is the pivot point for most of these coins, everybody here knew the 275k mintage was too high and avoided the later releases. They have behaved like the silver eagles. This flowing hair medal is a one off that won't be continuing as a yearly medal (at least I have not heard if it will), so what you describe doesn't apply to this. There are only 75k made and that's it in silver. I wish it had been 50k. You were right about it not selling out the first day, the mint should be concerned they couldn't scrape up enough 1 HHL orders to get this done. If aftermarket prices drop on non privys, then they will likely be flooded with returns. I think the price holds once the flipping dies down and goes higher. This medal is a tv show marketing dream come true for some.
If they’re not choosing why are there 74 slabbed “base” without it.
The first strike pop numbers are usually more indicative of minting quality because they do not have the option of saying only grade 70's, like the advanced relief dealers can do, if they choose.
At this early stage, this indicates a good chance that less than half of the medals submitted by the public for grading will be 70's.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Any dealer can specify for a min grade 70 in any label (first strike, advance release, first day, regular blue label, etc). Don’t fool yourself thinking first strike 70 pop reports aren’t skewed, because they are.
Here is what we do know 2 days after release:
Too early to tell quality.
Too early to tell return rate.
Boycotts from this little 'ol message board won't amount to a hill of beans.
Please do not forget to share some photos once you get the medal especially if you got the “230” privy one.
My mistake. I thought only bulk submitters could specify a minimum grade of 70. I guess that is no longer the case.
However, my point about lower quality is still valid. There could have been many more medals submitted than were graded 70, because there were some rejected that did not meet the minimum grade of 70. Since there are more 69's listed in First Strike, than 70's graded, it means an even larger percentage of medals are lower quality than 70 than those populations indicate.
Also, the 74 base numbers are all 69's. That is unusual.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
This is a post from the “Modern Morgan and Peace Silver Dollar Only” FB page.
I think that boycott comment is directed to me. It was tongue in cheek. No one listens to me not even my dog..
I am NOT privy to all of the details of all the programs, or the exceptions that PCGS grants.
That said, the publicly disclosed "bulk submissions" program explicitly prohibits requests for min 70 grades.
Source: https://www.pcgs.com/services/bulksubmissions
NOT saying that this rule is applicable to every program. Based on this post, I know that it is not. Just saying that the restriction appears to be in place for a least one variant of the program.
Live images on eBay: https://ebay.com/
That, I cannot answer, since the only things out before Tuesday were Advance Release eligible, and there is certainly no discount attached to an Advance Release slab. In any event, "most dealers are choosing advance release" is no longer an option, so it's only a matter of time before Advance Release slabs become a tiny subset of the pop at all the TPGs.
Actually, they do. Bulk submitters always have the option of specifying a minimum grade of 70, regardless of what they have placed on the label.
Yes, only bulk submitters could specify a minimum grade of 70. But, anyone can be a bulk submitter. Not just dealers. You and I could as well, as long as we meet the volume requirement. Typically 100 or so. Not in total, but per individual coin/medal.
I sold my sealed box of ten for $1600. Will keep the sealed box of 1 and the PCGS MS70 FDOI that I got on eBay for $199.
First Strike cutoff date announced. $1 Denomination removed.
And this directly from the PCGS webpage. Seems to be a contradiction as @MetroD also pointed out above.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set