Simply pointing out that the high bidding is on a loose coin accompanied with a loose special certificate. While the coin can be graded/encapsulated with a normal label, the certificate, because it can no longer be submitted in a sealed mint box, is simply just another US Mint piece of paper. Regardless of the fact that there are only two hundred out there their value is being greatly over estimated per the ebay bids. After all, subtract $100 from the bidding for the value of the coin, is that piece of paper worth the bidding? LOL
People collect what they like and put their value on it. I am sure there are hundreds of millions of people out there that believe what you collect is not worth what you paid for it .
To each his own.
This!
I have no interest in regency slabs. I don't mind people who like them buying them.
I have no interest in the signature of any coin designer or mint director in the last 150 years. I don't care if people who do want to collect them.
I don't believe in collecting by date and mint mark. I'm not yelling every time someone buys a 16D dime.
There's room for everyone if people stopped pushing people away.
Simply pointing out that the high bidding is on a loose coin accompanied with a loose special certificate. While the coin can be graded/encapsulated with a normal label, the certificate, because it can no longer be submitted in a sealed mint box, is simply just another US Mint piece of paper. Regardless of the fact that there are only two hundred out there their value is being greatly over estimated per the ebay bids. After all, subtract $100 from the bidding for the value of the coin, is that piece of paper worth the bidding? LOL
People collect what they like and put their value on it. I am sure there are hundreds of millions of people out there that believe what you collect is not worth what you paid for it .
To each his own.
This!
I have no interest in regency slabs. I don't mind people who like them buying them.
I have no interest in the signature of any coin designer or mint director in the last 150 years. I don't care if people who do want to collect them.
I don't believe in collecting by date and mint mark. I'm not yelling every time someone buys a 16D dime.
There's room for everyone if people stopped pushing people away.
the point of discussion is their value not whether they are collectible. Matchbooks are collectible to my brother.
Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?
Simply pointing out that the high bidding is on a loose coin accompanied with a loose special certificate. While the coin can be graded/encapsulated with a normal label, the certificate, because it can no longer be submitted in a sealed mint box, is simply just another US Mint piece of paper. Regardless of the fact that there are only two hundred out there their value is being greatly over estimated per the ebay bids. After all, subtract $100 from the bidding for the value of the coin, is that piece of paper worth the bidding? LOL
People collect what they like and put their value on it. I am sure there are hundreds of millions of people out there that believe what you collect is not worth what you paid for it .
To each his own.
This!
I have no interest in regency slabs. I don't mind people who like them buying them.
I have no interest in the signature of any coin designer or mint director in the last 150 years. I don't care if people who do want to collect them.
I don't believe in collecting by date and mint mark. I'm not yelling every time someone buys a 16D dime.
There's room for everyone if people stopped pushing people away.
the point of discussion is their value not whether they are collectible. Matchbooks are collectible to my brother.
Their value is whatever they sell for in an open market. Their future value is always speculative.
Simply pointing out that the high bidding is on a loose coin accompanied with a loose special certificate. While the coin can be graded/encapsulated with a normal label, the certificate, because it can no longer be submitted in a sealed mint box, is simply just another US Mint piece of paper. Regardless of the fact that there are only two hundred out there their value is being greatly over estimated per the ebay bids. After all, subtract $100 from the bidding for the value of the coin, is that piece of paper worth the bidding? LOL
People collect what they like and put their value on it. I am sure there are hundreds of millions of people out there that believe what you collect is not worth what you paid for it .
To each his own.
This!
I have no interest in regency slabs. I don't mind people who like them buying them.
I have no interest in the signature of any coin designer or mint director in the last 150 years. I don't care if people who do want to collect them.
I don't believe in collecting by date and mint mark. I'm not yelling every time someone buys a 16D dime.
There's room for everyone if people stopped pushing people away.
the point of discussion is their value not whether they are collectible. Matchbooks are collectible to my brother.
Their value is whatever they sell for in an open market. Their future value is always speculative.
"Their valueprice is whatever they sell for in an open market."
Those that believe price is value should avoid investing. My whole point has been that their current price is being determined by hope of a higher future price (speculation). And their value? In the eye of the beholder. It's not like you have a $100 bill that you can exchange later for $100 (we'll leave loss of purchasing power out of this one).
Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?
@Goldminers said:
Keep in mind you can still buy over 100-year-old classic uncirculated Morgans graded in MS64 for just a little over $100, too.
Does anyone really think these new uncirculated moderns will actually have much upside in the long term?
Yes if this is a continuation of the original series which this is intended to be. Even if the 2020s era Morgans and Peace Dollars have no premium, it might push the prices of the older coins up.
Simply pointing out that the high bidding is on a loose coin accompanied with a loose special certificate. While the coin can be graded/encapsulated with a normal label, the certificate, because it can no longer be submitted in a sealed mint box, is simply just another US Mint piece of paper. Regardless of the fact that there are only two hundred out there their value is being greatly over estimated per the ebay bids. After all, subtract $100 from the bidding for the value of the coin, is that piece of paper worth the bidding? LOL
People collect what they like and put their value on it. I am sure there are hundreds of millions of people out there that believe what you collect is not worth what you paid for it .
To each his own.
This!
I have no interest in regency slabs. I don't mind people who like them buying them.
I have no interest in the signature of any coin designer or mint director in the last 150 years. I don't care if people who do want to collect them.
I don't believe in collecting by date and mint mark. I'm not yelling every time someone buys a 16D dime.
There's room for everyone if people stopped pushing people away.
the point of discussion is their value not whether they are collectible. Matchbooks are collectible to my brother.
Their value is whatever they sell for in an open market. Their future value is always speculative.
"Their valueprice is whatever they sell for in an open market."
Those that believe price is value should avoid investing. My whole point has been that their current price is being determined by hope of a higher future price (speculation). And their value? In the eye of the beholder. It's not like you have a $100 bill that you can exchange later for $100 (we'll leave loss of purchasing power out of this one).
the point of discussion is their value not whether they are collectible. Matchbooks are collectible to my brother.
Your idea of value is what it is worth to a flipper for future resale. Many more collectors base value on what they desire and love to collect. Buy the way my uncle collected wooden matchboxes from all over Europe and Asia in the 1950's.
Some from countries that no longer exist are quite valuable. Again to each his own except for the flippers.
" If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
the point of discussion is their value not whether they are collectible. Matchbooks are collectible to my brother.
Your idea of value is what it is worth to a flipper for future resale. Many more collectors base value on what they desire and love to collect. Buy the way my uncle collected wooden matchboxes from all over Europe and Asia in the 1950's.
Some from countries that no longer exist are quite valuable. Again to each his own except for the flippers.
We also hear it all the time in here about the value of "pride of ownership", etc. If I buy something, enjoy having it and it ends up in the garbage when I die, it may still be worth it to me.
My aunt had a giant glass sniffer of matchbooks she collected in her travels. When she died, we took a few interesting ones home and threw out the others. It's value to her was incalculable. She had it prominently displayed on her mantle for 50 years.
And to use Derry's own argument, he's not taking about "value", he's talking about future "price".
we were talking about current and or future price of the 200 signed COA's with the coins. He stated it would be worthless based on his values. Who knows how many collectors will want one certified or not and what they will be willing to pay to get one was my point. Same difference. Things expected to have great future value have fell thru the floor and others thought to be duds have risen to the moon. Remember that box of chocolates thing. Buy what you like to collect and pay what it is worth to you to have it.
P.S. I am done on this subject.
" If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
@HATTRICK said:
we were talking about current and or future price of the 200 signed COA's with the coins. He stated it would be worthless based on his values. Who knows how many collectors will want one certified or not and what they will be willing to pay to get one was my point. Same difference. Things expected to have great future value have fell thru the floor and others thought to be duds have risen to the moon. Remember that box of chocolates thing. Buy what you like to collect and pay what it is worth to you to have it.
P.S. I am done on this subject.
Real value is not the eye of the beholder. It's what it is worth today right now, which in the case of the raw 2023 morgan/peace is around $80-$90.
Perceived value is different. I think it's more than that because I think they will be sold out and in demand long term IMO. That would be the eye of the beholder.
@fathom said:
Real value is not the eye of the beholder. It's what it is worth today right now, which in the case of the raw 2023 morgan/peace is around $80-$90.
Perceived value is different. I think it's more than that because I think they will be sold out and in demand long term IMO. That would be the eye of the beholder.
They will be sold out and in demand, probably for around $50
I picked up a pair this morning, one of each, and clicked on the box for the special limited signed COA. (And everyone thought there were just 200 randomly placed director signed cards....you had to check the little request box on the left!)
You think coffee at 7:30am at the Mint store is an every morning occurrence now? Just wait until 800,000 proof Morgans and Peace $1's find their way into the marketplace August 9th. I hear they will be serving silver dollar pancakes with your coffee through September.
@fathom said:
Real value is not the eye of the beholder. It's what it is worth today right now, which in the case of the raw 2023 morgan/peace is around $80-$90.
Perceived value is different. I think it's more than that because I think they will be sold out and in demand long term IMO. That would be the eye of the beholder.
They will be sold out and in demand, probably for around $50
@fathom said:
Real value is not the eye of the beholder. It's what it is worth today right now, which in the case of the raw 2023 morgan/peace is around $80-$90.
Perceived value is different. I think it's more than that because I think they will be sold out and in demand long term IMO. That would be the eye of the beholder.
They will be sold out and in demand, probably for around $50
You've got a bad prediction record.
I will take all you have for $50.
Could you cite one bad prediction?
I actually have a pretty good record on Mint products. But no matter. Keep watching ebay. They are already in the 80s
I will admit to being a bit wrong about the 2021 Morgans. I thought they'd be down to $100 by now but they are still in the $150 to $170 range so they only dropped 20% from the post release price.
Another day, another big move from the Morgan and Peace proofs towards fully subscribed status. The Morgan proof subscriptions move was, in large part, likely due to mint accounting/housekeeping. Bottom line: the Morgan and Peace proofs will likely be fully subscribed (or very nearly so) prior to the release date in 13 days.
.
The 2024 Morgan and Peace unc subscriptions suggest that some are actively reducing their subscriptions to some degree. Perhaps as some folks go into modify their proof subscriptions, they are reducing their unc subscriptions for 2024. There is so much yet TBD regarding the 2024 unc mintages (and whether other MMs will be included), that the 2024 sub numbers must be considered with a grain of salt.
.
With other data provided by the mint, it might be that no more than 45K (and likely less) of each proof will be available on release day.
.
The Morgan and Peace proofs might have 90-100K more subscriptions, respectively, more than was seen with the Morgan and Peace uncs.
.
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
@spyglassdesign said: @SPalladino could the big moves be the big boys taking more of their allotments too?
The ABPP orders would not impact subscription numbers directly, unless the mint accounting/housekeeping included a bit of robbing Peter to pay Paul, which is possible I guess. That said, I do not know mint policy in that regard, nor do I know the deadline for ABPP orders to be in. (after all, the ABPP receives their orders in advance of the release date)
.
The big boys may also have various subscription accounts that feed back to them, which might explain what was seen with the Peace proofs today, but not likely what was seen yesterday. (although the subscription-based coins received by the big boys could not qualify for an Advanced Release label)
.
That said, the above reply is largely conjecture.
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
It seems like everyone is running scared from the proofs with mintage at 400,000 a piece. If the market sucked up 275,000 uncs like nothing; it will absorb 400,000 proofs. Dont under estimate the demand of a PROOF Morgan.
@RichR said:
My 2 cents...if the Unc. are such $$$ failures as deemed by some...then a lot of people are sure lining up for more failure with the proofs.
I just think that these are fresh and exciting (for century old classic designs) and therefore the normal rules may not apply...at least not yet.
The UNCs aren't failures. They are fine for collecting. But just like any Mint product, they don't tend to increase in value later.
The Proofs are actually a better "value" if you compare their price to ASE proofs. I really don't expect these to appreciate, but I would bet they stay closer to issue price.
As for people rushing in...Mint and Proof sets have been losing money for people for decades... but they still sell a few hundred thousand every year.
"It's different this time" is always a questionable strategy. The one rule that always applies is supply and demand. 400,000 is a huge supply. People always mock the HSN, TV and print ad people. But those are the reason these sell out now. Take away the coins being marketed (at high prices) to non-traditional collectors and I will bet you have more than enough supply for the traditional collector demand.
It's a hobby. Buy it because you like it. Period. Even if they hold their value, they will likely grossly underperform most other asset classes. But, so what? We do it because it's fun, right?
@coiner said:
It seems like everyone is running scared from the proofs with mintage at 400,000 a piece. If the market sucked up 275,000 uncs like nothing; it will absorb 400,000 proofs. Dont under estimate the demand of a PROOF Morgan.
Yeah, the flippers are nervous. As a collector, I couldn't care less. I buy the coins for my collection and am not concerned about the mintage. While a lower mintage will certainly make the coin more valuable and desirable, I buy the coin solely based on how I like it.
I'm happy to see these things be a big success for the Mint--Sold out quickly, but pretty much anyone who wanted one (or more) could get what they wanted without cluster-f&&k that characterized the sales in 2021.
And I'm amused to see, yet again, that people can fight endlessly on an internet forum about things that don't matter in the slightest.
@124Spider said:
I'm happy to see these things be a big success for the Mint--Sold out quickly, but pretty much anyone who wanted one (or more) could get what they wanted without cluster-f&&k that characterized the sales in 2021.
And I'm amused to see, yet again, that people can fight endlessly on an internet forum about things that don't matter in the slightest.
To be fair, it does matter to some people. The flippers want to flip. And even some collectors want to justify the purchase based on price appreciation.
Personally, I like to think of all hobby costs as sunk costs. So I really don't care what goes up or down.
@124Spider said:
I'm happy to see these things be a big success for the Mint--Sold out quickly, but pretty much anyone who wanted one (or more) could get what they wanted without cluster-f&&k that characterized the sales in 2021.
And I'm amused to see, yet again, that people can fight endlessly on an internet forum about things that don't matter in the slightest.
To be fair, it does matter to some people. The flippers want to flip. And even some collectors want to justify the purchase based on price appreciation.
Personally, I like to think of all hobby costs as sunk costs. So I really don't care what goes up or down.
Fair enough. But the Mint does not owe its customers the ability to flip for a profit. And people can bench race all they want, but the market will do what the market will do, irrespective of what people expect or hope.
I don't see my coin purchases as a "sunk cost," since there is a market for everything I buy. I see my coin purchases as converting a liquid asset--cash--into an illiquid asset with uncertain value--coins. When I spend a lot of money on a coin (and, to me, "a lot of money" is more than a couple of hundred dollars), I try to be as sure as I can be that I could sell the coin for a substantial percentage of what I paid for it. That said, I don't consider my coin purchases to be "investments." There are much safer ways to "invest" than in some combination of collectibles and bullion.
I like these coins, and they're fairly inexpensive, so I don't worry about my ability to get my money back. But I feel confident that, if I wanted to sell mine, I could get the clear majority of what I spent, easily.
It seems like everyone is running scared from the proofs with mintage at 400,000 a piece. If the market sucked up 275,000 uncs like nothing; it will absorb 400,000 proofs. Dont under estimate the demand of a PROOF Morgan.
I’m betting that people have become a wee bit smarter. I’m still saying that the proofs will suffer a similar fate as the uncirculated.
My money is on the reverse proofs. Thanks 🙏
So, I'm starting to plan ahead to my next submission, after all my Peace / Morgan subs are in. I'm looking at the PCGS coin number lookup / reference, as well as the price guide.
I see the Morgan Unc $ is 925279.
The Peace Unc $ is 925283.
I know these are not out yet, but they have numbers for almost all 2023 Peace and Morgans. ...
The 2023-S Peace Proof is 925284 (ie Unc number +1.)
The 2023-S Morgan Proof does not seem to have a number yet? Might just be an oversight.
Would that possibly follow the same logic, Unc+1 which is 925279+1 = 925280?
Make sense?
While there are still 2022 Morgan and Peace unc FDOI and AR populations being added to the PCGS pop report, the percentage of First Strike and base label populations is climbing, and will continue to climb from here out, as collector submissions dilute out the initial submissions of the big boys (FDOI and AR). As an example, here are the percentages of the total population, just six days apart.
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The percent of 70s amongst the FDOI and AR populations is near 100% (again, PCGS data), while the First Strike and base label grade out 70 at a much lower rate. Percent 70 for FS, base label, FS+base combined, and FDOI and AR combined, as of 7/27/2023 (first row = Morgan unc, second row = Peace unc):
An early assessment is that it is possible that the Peace uncs might have a slightly harder time making 70 (PCGS data only).
.
While PCGS has been updating its pop report frequently (daily), NGC has not updated its pop report in over a week. Regardless, here is the current 7/27 summary of "% 70":
Bottom line, the percent 70 in the above summary screenshot will continue to decline gradually as the "dilution effect" proceeds.
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
Hey everyone, we wanted to take a moment to address some questions earlier in the thread and demystify some of our modern designations.
In general Advanced Release is for coins that are purchased by select Mint purchasers directly from the Mint and shipped to us prior to the official public release date.
First Day of Issue are coins purchased on the day the coins are released to the public and received by us in sealed mint packaging within 2 weeks of the initial ship date from the Mint.
These programs are for Bulk Submissions only.
Min 70 deals do happen on occasion on certain modern releases. This service is only available to PCGS Authorized Bulk Dealers with approval.
These programs are available to anyone who is able to meet our bulk submission minimums and program requirements. If you are interested in participating in our bulk programs, please get in touch with our Senior Director of Sales Chris Demoray
Cdemoray@collectors.com
We will be looking to add these details to our site to give more clarity to collectors of these series in the coming weeks.
@stawick said:
[...]
The 2023-S Morgan Proof does not seem to have a number yet? Might just be an oversight.
Would that possibly follow the same logic, Unc+1 which is 925279+1 = 925280?
Make sense?
[...]
Thanks for providing that info on the bulk programs. It is greatly appreciated and will put stale arguments to rest. Many of us are tired of watching a few beating a dead horse over and over again.
" If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
Thanks for providing that info on the bulk programs. It is greatly appreciated and will put stale arguments to rest. Many of us are tired of watching a few beating a dead horse over and over again.
I'm not beating it. I'm sitting triumphant on its corpse sipping a margarita.
@stawick said:
[...]
The 2023-S Morgan Proof does not seem to have a number yet? Might just be an oversight.
Would that possibly follow the same logic, Unc+1 which is 925279+1 = 925280?
Make sense?
[...]
@fathom said:
Real value is not the eye of the beholder. It's what it is worth today right now, which in the case of the raw 2023 morgan/peace is around $80-$90.
Perceived value is different. I think it's more than that because I think they will be sold out and in demand long term IMO. That would be the eye of the beholder.
They will be sold out and in demand, probably for around $50
You've got a bad prediction record.
I will take all you have for $50.
Could you cite one bad prediction?
I actually have a pretty good record on Mint products. But no matter. Keep watching ebay. They are already in the 80s
I will admit to being a bit wrong about the 2021 Morgans. I thought they'd be down to $100 by now but they are still in the $150 to $170 range so they only dropped 20% from the post release price.
It was tongue in cheek but OK, on the 2023 I thought they would firm up right away and they haven't.
This threads always bring out the same people/arguments....
Those with over exuberance "post release, it will go to the moon!"
And those who feel it is their duty to try to crap on the item "it will go for half it's release price"
I never did get why the 2nd half feels like they have to comment all the time and try to dampen anyone's enthusiam...it will dampen quick enough by itself if the post-release price doesn't go up. Makes me think they just don't want others to find any success they aren't a part of.
Anyways....I hope everyone that has wanted one has gotten at least one.
My opinion is that the market will suck up the regular proofs. It is the first PROOF release of the new Morgan and Peace dollars; the look on the Morgan should be incredible, cant wait to see the Peace as well.
I am a true fan of the reverse proofs - I think there is a smaller group of collectors there and possibly less demand - but still will be enormously popular.
The mintages on all of these issues are rising, I think the US Mint needs to seriously think about keeping it stable going forward----if there are any more of these to be issued (a series).
Comments
This!
I have no interest in regency slabs. I don't mind people who like them buying them.
I have no interest in the signature of any coin designer or mint director in the last 150 years. I don't care if people who do want to collect them.
I don't believe in collecting by date and mint mark. I'm not yelling every time someone buys a 16D dime.
There's room for everyone if people stopped pushing people away.
the point of discussion is their value not whether they are collectible. Matchbooks are collectible to my brother.
Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?
Their value is whatever they sell for in an open market. Their future value is always speculative.
"Their value price is whatever they sell for in an open market."
Those that believe price is value should avoid investing. My whole point has been that their current price is being determined by hope of a higher future price (speculation). And their value? In the eye of the beholder. It's not like you have a $100 bill that you can exchange later for $100 (we'll leave loss of purchasing power out of this one).
Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?
Yes if this is a continuation of the original series which this is intended to be. Even if the 2020s era Morgans and Peace Dollars have no premium, it might push the prices of the older coins up.
Then there is no such thing as value.
Your idea of value is what it is worth to a flipper for future resale. Many more collectors base value on what they desire and love to collect. Buy the way my uncle collected wooden matchboxes from all over Europe and Asia in the 1950's.
Some from countries that no longer exist are quite valuable. Again to each his own except for the flippers.
We also hear it all the time in here about the value of "pride of ownership", etc. If I buy something, enjoy having it and it ends up in the garbage when I die, it may still be worth it to me.
My aunt had a giant glass sniffer of matchbooks she collected in her travels. When she died, we took a few interesting ones home and threw out the others. It's value to her was incalculable. She had it prominently displayed on her mantle for 50 years.
And to use Derry's own argument, he's not taking about "value", he's talking about future "price".
when it comes to investing/flipping whether it be mint COAs, coins or stocks and bonds it is always about the future price.
Like I said, value is in the eye of the beholder. And if his heirs disagree, value goes out the window and into the trash.
Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?
we were talking about current and or future price of the 200 signed COA's with the coins. He stated it would be worthless based on his values. Who knows how many collectors will want one certified or not and what they will be willing to pay to get one was my point. Same difference. Things expected to have great future value have fell thru the floor and others thought to be duds have risen to the moon. Remember that box of chocolates thing. Buy what you like to collect and pay what it is worth to you to have it.
P.S. I am done on this subject.
I totally agree with you.
and don't forget that eye of the beholder thing.
Are they really this stupid, or are they destroying the dollar on purpose?
Real value is not the eye of the beholder. It's what it is worth today right now, which in the case of the raw 2023 morgan/peace is around $80-$90.
Perceived value is different. I think it's more than that because I think they will be sold out and in demand long term IMO. That would be the eye of the beholder.
Did I click the right thread??
BST references available on request
Well we have to do something while we wait on the proof issues. 😂😂😂
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
They will be sold out and in demand, probably for around $50
Available now hurry morgan lasted 2+ minutes
Peace available still 5 minutes in.
All done. Thanks 🙏
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
Both were avaliable, only the peace is still available (>99)
Successful transactions with forum members commoncents05, dmarks, Coinscratch, Bullsitter, DCW, TwoSides2aCoin, Namvet69 (facilitated for 3rd party), Tetromibi, ProfLizMay, MASSU2, MWallace, Bruce7789, Twobitcollector, 78saen, U1chicago
It's over........for today anyway.
Still some big buyers. > @Goldbully said:
Still some big buyers. I was able to get 99 in my cart and sold out less than 2 minutes later.
Successful transactions with forum members commoncents05, dmarks, Coinscratch, Bullsitter, DCW, TwoSides2aCoin, Namvet69 (facilitated for 3rd party), Tetromibi, ProfLizMay, MASSU2, MWallace, Bruce7789, Twobitcollector, 78saen, U1chicago
I picked up a pair this morning, one of each, and clicked on the box for the special limited signed COA. (And everyone thought there were just 200 randomly placed director signed cards....you had to check the little request box on the left!)
You think coffee at 7:30am at the Mint store is an every morning occurrence now? Just wait until 800,000 proof Morgans and Peace $1's find their way into the marketplace August 9th. I hear they will be serving silver dollar pancakes with your coffee through September.
You've got a bad prediction record.
I will take all you have for $50.
Could you cite one bad prediction?
I actually have a pretty good record on Mint products. But no matter. Keep watching ebay. They are already in the 80s
I will admit to being a bit wrong about the 2021 Morgans. I thought they'd be down to $100 by now but they are still in the $150 to $170 range so they only dropped 20% from the post release price.
Another day, another big move from the Morgan and Peace proofs towards fully subscribed status. The Morgan proof subscriptions move was, in large part, likely due to mint accounting/housekeeping. Bottom line: the Morgan and Peace proofs will likely be fully subscribed (or very nearly so) prior to the release date in 13 days.
.
The 2024 Morgan and Peace unc subscriptions suggest that some are actively reducing their subscriptions to some degree. Perhaps as some folks go into modify their proof subscriptions, they are reducing their unc subscriptions for 2024. There is so much yet TBD regarding the 2024 unc mintages (and whether other MMs will be included), that the 2024 sub numbers must be considered with a grain of salt.
.
With other data provided by the mint, it might be that no more than 45K (and likely less) of each proof will be available on release day.
.
The Morgan and Peace proofs might have 90-100K more subscriptions, respectively, more than was seen with the Morgan and Peace uncs.
.
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
@SPalladino could the big moves be the big boys taking more of their allotments too?
https://www.the4thcoin.com
https://www.ebay.com/str/thefourthcoin
My 2 cents...if the Unc. are such $$$ failures as deemed by some...then a lot of people are sure lining up for more failure with the proofs.
I just think that these are fresh and exciting (for century old classic designs) and therefore the normal rules may not apply...at least not yet.
The ABPP orders would not impact subscription numbers directly, unless the mint accounting/housekeeping included a bit of robbing Peter to pay Paul, which is possible I guess. That said, I do not know mint policy in that regard, nor do I know the deadline for ABPP orders to be in. (after all, the ABPP receives their orders in advance of the release date)
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The big boys may also have various subscription accounts that feed back to them, which might explain what was seen with the Peace proofs today, but not likely what was seen yesterday. (although the subscription-based coins received by the big boys could not qualify for an Advanced Release label)
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That said, the above reply is largely conjecture.
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
It seems like everyone is running scared from the proofs with mintage at 400,000 a piece. If the market sucked up 275,000 uncs like nothing; it will absorb 400,000 proofs. Dont under estimate the demand of a PROOF Morgan.
The UNCs aren't failures. They are fine for collecting. But just like any Mint product, they don't tend to increase in value later.
The Proofs are actually a better "value" if you compare their price to ASE proofs. I really don't expect these to appreciate, but I would bet they stay closer to issue price.
As for people rushing in...Mint and Proof sets have been losing money for people for decades... but they still sell a few hundred thousand every year.
"It's different this time" is always a questionable strategy. The one rule that always applies is supply and demand. 400,000 is a huge supply. People always mock the HSN, TV and print ad people. But those are the reason these sell out now. Take away the coins being marketed (at high prices) to non-traditional collectors and I will bet you have more than enough supply for the traditional collector demand.
It's a hobby. Buy it because you like it. Period. Even if they hold their value, they will likely grossly underperform most other asset classes. But, so what? We do it because it's fun, right?
Yeah, the flippers are nervous. As a collector, I couldn't care less. I buy the coins for my collection and am not concerned about the mintage. While a lower mintage will certainly make the coin more valuable and desirable, I buy the coin solely based on how I like it.
I'm happy to see these things be a big success for the Mint--Sold out quickly, but pretty much anyone who wanted one (or more) could get what they wanted without cluster-f&&k that characterized the sales in 2021.
And I'm amused to see, yet again, that people can fight endlessly on an internet forum about things that don't matter in the slightest.
To be fair, it does matter to some people. The flippers want to flip. And even some collectors want to justify the purchase based on price appreciation.
Personally, I like to think of all hobby costs as sunk costs. So I really don't care what goes up or down.
Fair enough. But the Mint does not owe its customers the ability to flip for a profit. And people can bench race all they want, but the market will do what the market will do, irrespective of what people expect or hope.
I don't see my coin purchases as a "sunk cost," since there is a market for everything I buy. I see my coin purchases as converting a liquid asset--cash--into an illiquid asset with uncertain value--coins. When I spend a lot of money on a coin (and, to me, "a lot of money" is more than a couple of hundred dollars), I try to be as sure as I can be that I could sell the coin for a substantial percentage of what I paid for it. That said, I don't consider my coin purchases to be "investments." There are much safer ways to "invest" than in some combination of collectibles and bullion.
I like these coins, and they're fairly inexpensive, so I don't worry about my ability to get my money back. But I feel confident that, if I wanted to sell mine, I could get the clear majority of what I spent, easily.
Available now > @coiner said:
I’m betting that people have become a wee bit smarter. I’m still saying that the proofs will suffer a similar fate as the uncirculated.
My money is on the reverse proofs. Thanks 🙏
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
So, I'm starting to plan ahead to my next submission, after all my Peace / Morgan subs are in. I'm looking at the PCGS coin number lookup / reference, as well as the price guide.
I see the Morgan Unc $ is 925279.
The Peace Unc $ is 925283.
I know these are not out yet, but they have numbers for almost all 2023 Peace and Morgans. ...
The 2023-S Peace Proof is 925284 (ie Unc number +1.)
The 2023-S Morgan Proof does not seem to have a number yet? Might just be an oversight.
Would that possibly follow the same logic, Unc+1 which is 925279+1 = 925280?
Make sense?
Dilution effect.
While there are still 2022 Morgan and Peace unc FDOI and AR populations being added to the PCGS pop report, the percentage of First Strike and base label populations is climbing, and will continue to climb from here out, as collector submissions dilute out the initial submissions of the big boys (FDOI and AR). As an example, here are the percentages of the total population, just six days apart.
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The percent of 70s amongst the FDOI and AR populations is near 100% (again, PCGS data), while the First Strike and base label grade out 70 at a much lower rate. Percent 70 for FS, base label, FS+base combined, and FDOI and AR combined, as of 7/27/2023 (first row = Morgan unc, second row = Peace unc):
An early assessment is that it is possible that the Peace uncs might have a slightly harder time making 70 (PCGS data only).
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While PCGS has been updating its pop report frequently (daily), NGC has not updated its pop report in over a week. Regardless, here is the current 7/27 summary of "% 70":
Bottom line, the percent 70 in the above summary screenshot will continue to decline gradually as the "dilution effect" proceeds.
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
Hey everyone, we wanted to take a moment to address some questions earlier in the thread and demystify some of our modern designations.
In general Advanced Release is for coins that are purchased by select Mint purchasers directly from the Mint and shipped to us prior to the official public release date.
First Day of Issue are coins purchased on the day the coins are released to the public and received by us in sealed mint packaging within 2 weeks of the initial ship date from the Mint.
These programs are for Bulk Submissions only.
Min 70 deals do happen on occasion on certain modern releases. This service is only available to PCGS Authorized Bulk Dealers with approval.
These programs are available to anyone who is able to meet our bulk submission minimums and program requirements. If you are interested in participating in our bulk programs, please get in touch with our Senior Director of Sales Chris Demoray
Cdemoray@collectors.com
We will be looking to add these details to our site to give more clarity to collectors of these series in the coming weeks.
Heather Boyd
PCGS Senior Director of Marketing
I tried searching for 925280. Link
Looks like you were correct.
@HeatherBoyd
Thanks for providing that info on the bulk programs. It is greatly appreciated and will put stale arguments to rest. Many of us are tired of watching a few beating a dead horse over and over again.
I'm not beating it. I'm sitting triumphant on its corpse sipping a margarita.
😀
Thanks. Didnt think of coinfacts.
Thanks Heather!
Our resident drama/debate club lifetime members can’t miss an opportunity to:
It was tongue in cheek but OK, on the 2023 I thought they would firm up right away and they haven't.
Its early though on all this stuff.....
This threads always bring out the same people/arguments....
Those with over exuberance "post release, it will go to the moon!"
And those who feel it is their duty to try to crap on the item "it will go for half it's release price"
I never did get why the 2nd half feels like they have to comment all the time and try to dampen anyone's enthusiam...it will dampen quick enough by itself if the post-release price doesn't go up. Makes me think they just don't want others to find any success they aren't a part of.
Anyways....I hope everyone that has wanted one has gotten at least one.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
Irony? People beating the dead horse by beating the dead horse?
I wonder why trying to help people understand the pop reports somehow constituted a debate club rather than a relevanr numismatic fact.
Available now hurry
3 minutes still available
Over 5 minutes and both available. Interesting. Plenty of time. Thanks 🙏
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
Morgan lasted 10 minutes, Peace still up.
My opinion is that the market will suck up the regular proofs. It is the first PROOF release of the new Morgan and Peace dollars; the look on the Morgan should be incredible, cant wait to see the Peace as well.
I am a true fan of the reverse proofs - I think there is a smaller group of collectors there and possibly less demand - but still will be enormously popular.
The mintages on all of these issues are rising, I think the US Mint needs to seriously think about keeping it stable going forward----if there are any more of these to be issued (a series).
I would like to see how this develops. My personal review of several hundred Peace Uncs showed a 20% or so "70" rate.