@coiner said:
Not knowing if those providing their opinions regarding "minimum 70" grades have experience with direct Bulk submissions?
I can say that I do. I have sent many 100-500 coin lots into PCGS for Bulk submission. Their guidelines are clear.
You are not a major submitter. You (and I) can only get the posted terms.
I PERSONALLY BOUGHT A BULK SUBMISSION of 1000 PCGS slabs, proof sets and Ikes mostly. I paid $10 per slab INCLUDING THE COST OF THE COIN. How do you think the guy flipped it to me at that price of he was paying $14 per coin for the submission alone? He paid $7 each and flipped them to me at $10, coins included.
@HATTRICK said:
You are welcome to have your submission debate “SOMEWHERE ELSE” this thread is for discussion of the Morgan & Peace coins. We would all appreciate it if you started your own thread.
The submission debate was based on the pop numbers for these coins.
I mean, there's no point in paying a premium for a 70 if 96% of the coins are 70s.
Latest pop report figures from PCGS and NGC - percent receiving 70:
.
However, the above table does not tell the entire story.
.
Looking at just "no special label", "Fun show" and First Strike / First Releases labels (ie, more likely collector submissions, no FDOI, or Advance Release labels reserved for the ABPP / big boys), the percent 70 is only 79% for Morgan $s and 81% for Peace $s !
.
For FDOI, or Advance Release labels reserved for the ABPP / big boys, there are a combined 4541 Morgan $s, and 4460 Peace $s graded so far, with 100% 70s for the Morgan $s, and 99.9% 70s for the Peace $s.
.
And, a) with the ABPP big boys having access to perhaps as much as 10% of the mintage of each (27,500) (but likely not taking that many - let's say no more than 20K), and b) that the grading for their submissions are likely mostly graded and reported, reconcile a combined 4541 Morgan $s, and 4460 Peace $s graded with FDOI, or Advance Release labels by PCGS and NGC so far (all 70s).
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
@jmlanzaf said:
I mean, there's no point in paying a premium for a 70 if 96% of the coins are 70s.
Point understood, but percent 70s right now is not what it will be in 4+ months, once collector submissions dilute the initial "minimum grade 70" submissions of the big boys.
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
@fathom said:
Now's the time for the unc flippers to panic.
Get 'em while they are cheap.
The flippers will survive. That's why they're always around. Even if they make a couple bucks per coin and get their postage covered, they will be fine and continue their flipping.
@jmlanzaf said:
I mean, there's no point in paying a premium for a 70 if 96% of the coins are 70s.
Point understood, but percent 70s right now is not what it will be in 4+ months, once collector submissions dilute the initial "minimum grade 70" submissions of the big boys.
I agree. But my point is the relevance of the "submission argument". It was not intended to be OT. It was intended to help people (SOME people) understand the pop numbers.
@fathom said:
Now's the time for the unc flippers to panic.
Get 'em while they are cheap.
The flippers will survive. That's why they're always around. Even if they make a couple bucks per coin and get their postage covered, they will be fine and continue their flipping.
I sold half my Morgans making, as you say, a few dollars per coin.
@fathom said:
Now's the time for the unc flippers to panic.
Get 'em while they are cheap.
The flippers will survive. That's why they're always around. Even if they make a couple bucks per coin and get their postage covered, they will be fine and continue their flipping.
Some will, some will get bored and quit. I really don't care.
My point is this may be the cheapest point in time to purchase. There are 800K+ 2021s there are 275K unc 2023 Morgans.
It looks like these Morgan/Peace dollars are here to stay; I'd like to see a new Registry reflecting that in addition to the current 100th Anniversary Morgan/Peace set.
break- even for sellers without a store is 91 dollars if you sell with free shipping. some sellers are losing money already in no reserve auctions. i think the downward trend continues, sellout is taking way too long
@coinpalice said:
break- even for sellers without a store is 91 dollars if you sell with free shipping. some sellers are losing money already in no reserve auctions. i think the downward trend continues, sellout is taking way too long
Sellout won't change the trajectory. Removing the flippers just speeds up the normal trajectory.
@fathom said:
Now's the time for the unc flippers to panic.
Get 'em while they are cheap.
The flippers will survive. That's why they're always around. Even if they make a couple bucks per coin and get their postage covered, they will be fine and continue their flipping.
Some will, some will get bored and quit. I really don't care.
My point is this may be the cheapest point in time to purchase. There are 800K+ 2021s there are 275K unc 2023 Morgans.
@fathom said:
Now's the time for the unc flippers to panic.
Get 'em while they are cheap.
The flippers will survive. That's why they're always around. Even if they make a couple bucks per coin and get their postage covered, they will be fine and continue their flipping.
Some will, some will get bored and quit. I really don't care.
My point is this may be the cheapest point in time to purchase. There are 800K+ 2021s there are 275K unc 2023 Morgans.
Actually, no. They are only going to go down as the excitement wears off and the people thinking the way you are ultimately capitulate and sell what they are hoarding.
And, no, there are NOT 800K+ 2021s. You have to consider each mint mark separately. If you are not willing to do that, you also don't have to consider each date separately.
@fathom said:
Now's the time for the unc flippers to panic.
Get 'em while they are cheap.
The flippers will survive. That's why they're always around. Even if they make a couple bucks per coin and get their postage covered, they will be fine and continue their flipping.
Some will, some will get bored and quit. I really don't care.
My point is this may be the cheapest point in time to purchase. There are 800K+ 2021s there are 275K unc 2023 Morgans.
At 175,000 per MM. last I checked 175,000 is less than 275,000. I guess my point is each of the 21’s has a different value with the Carson City being the Winner. The peace dollar is next in value. $275 CC or $250 peace dollar is way more than the fire sale prices for the 23’s. These are not winners. Ask JM who’s dumping his for not much money. Couple bucks 🤠
@NJCoin said:
And, no, there are NOT 800K+ 2021s. You have to consider each mint mark separately. If you are not willing to do that, you also don't have to consider each date separately.
@fathom said:
Now's the time for the unc flippers to panic.
Get 'em while they are cheap.
The flippers will survive. That's why they're always around. Even if they make a couple bucks per coin and get their postage covered, they will be fine and continue their flipping.
Some will, some will get bored and quit. I really don't care.
My point is this may be the cheapest point in time to purchase. There are 800K+ 2021s there are 275K unc 2023 Morgans.
At 175,000 per MM. last I checked 175,000 is less than 275,000. I guess my point is each of the 21’s has a different value with the Carson City being the Winner. The peace dollar is next in value. $275 CC or $250 peace dollar is way more than the fire sale prices for the 23’s. These are not winners. Ask JM who’s dumping his for not much money. Couple bucks 🤠
Don't go by me. I don't believe in any Mint products and I dump them all ASAP.
Funny story. The only reason I even have these is i forgot I had a subscription on one of my accounts. Lol. The only ones I actually intended to get were the RP.
NGCX selling for a $20 premium seems ambitious, but it's a free country. Beyond that, $150 each as a starting point is exactly where I expected them to be, based on how many flew off the shelf at that price with the uncs.
The $64,000 Question is whether there will be sufficient incremental demand for proofs over uncs for pricing to remain consistent given the increased mintage. And no one actually knows the answer to that until they are released.
Sales patterns for any proof coin over its uncirculated counterpart suggests the mint knows what it's doing here (i.e., 400,000 proofs should hold their value similar to 275,000 uncs). OTOH, these really are unlike anything else the mint sells, including ASEs, so who really knows?
Also, subscription demand for the proofs suggests these might not sell out due to the increased mintage, in which case there would be no justification to sell proof 70s for the same price as the uncs. Unless, of course, proofs grade 70 at a lower rate, but there is nothing at this time to suggest that will be the case. In fact, it's entirely possible Pinehurst already has an early view into how they are grading.
Asking for a $40 premium for the same thing (top grade) in an NGCX holder versus a NGC holder.
Multiple possible variables in play. Regardless, wow...just wow.
.
Also, they are asking a similar premium for NGCX unc set versus NGC unc set.
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
Are NGCX holders available for everyone who submits? I honestly haven’t followed ngc’s policy on this since they started it. Perhaps the $40 extra is because they’re still exclusive to the select few.
@knovak1976 said:
Since so many are being graded I'll just leave mine in their original holders and be happy with that. ;-)
Actually, the vast majority of the mintage will remain in the original mint packaging / ungraded by TPG.
Example: only 27-37% (depending on the specific issue) of the 2021 Morgan and Peace products have been graded by PCGS and NGC. Certainly, other TPGs graded a small fraction of the total mintage, but the total percent of the 2021 Morgan and Peace products in TPG holders is likely less than 40% at more than a year and a half since the mint delivered them to customers.
.
The point is that these 2023 Morgan and Peace dollars will likely follow suit, with the majority remaining in their mint packaging...at least for the first few years.
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
@1madman said:
Are NGCX holders available for everyone who submits? I honestly haven’t followed ngc’s policy on this since they started it. Perhaps the $40 extra is because they’re still exclusive to the select few.
I bought my ngcx example for $13. Ouch. I did good 😊
@coiner said:
Not knowing if those providing their opinions regarding "minimum 70" grades have experience with direct Bulk submissions?
I can say that I do. I have sent many 100-500 coin lots into PCGS for Bulk submission. Their guidelines are clear.
You are not a major submitter. You (and I) can only get the posted terms.
I PERSONALLY BOUGHT A BULK SUBMISSION of 1000 PCGS slabs, proof sets and Ikes mostly. I paid $10 per slab INCLUDING THE COST OF THE COIN. How do you think the guy flipped it to me at that price of he was paying $14 per coin for the submission alone? He paid $7 each and flipped them to me at $10, coins included.
I've personally bulk submitted in the past at $6 per coin- a couple thousand coins. But as I stated before - highest min grade accepted to holder is 69.
why is this so hard to understand? I believe this community has a large number of fairly bright people.
Anyway, I will yield to the intended discussion on this thread. Let whomever wants to debate what I've stated have the last word.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Well I got my Peace Dollars yesterday and I split my order with my dad. I will see him on Sunday and we will open the box together then.
I know the proof coins have a higher mintage, but that is the coin I am most excited to get in hand. I have always wanted a DCAM Morgan Dollar, but they have been out of my price range. But here is a chance to have one. I just think it is the most attractive silver coin made by the mint and to get a DCAM will be great. I can't wait until mid-August to get one of these.
I got a lot of 3 peace in yesterday, i never return anything, just suck it up and go. But one of the 23 peace dollars was so bad, i had to return it, looks liked somebody threw a bottle of clorox on it. horrible
@1madman said: Are NGCX holders available for everyone who submits? I honestly haven’t followed ngc’s policy on this since they started it. Perhaps the $40 extra is because they’re still exclusive to the select few.
@1madman said: Are NGCX holders available for everyone who submits? I honestly haven’t followed ngc’s policy on this since they started it. Perhaps the $40 extra is because they’re still exclusive to the select few.
I'm almost sold out of both the Morgan and Peace dollars. Priced at $94 with a volume discount. That appears to be the right price to move them.
I actually sold 3 sets to a dealer ($89.29 each coin) who didn't have enough for his customers. So there is some demand out there. I don't know how long it will last.
@coiner said:
why is this so hard to understand? I believe this community has a large number of fairly bright people.
Anyway, I will yield to the intended discussion on this thread. Let whomever wants to debate what I've stated have the last word.
I bought 3 each, thinking I could flip 2 to pay for the 1 I keep. Now I'm not sure what to do with my extra 2 of each. No resell value, and I hear you can't return partial orders.
@Rob9874 said:
I bought 3 each, thinking I could flip 2 to pay for the 1 I keep. Now I'm not sure what to do with my extra 2 of each. No resell value, and I hear you can't return partial orders.
@Rob9874 said:
I bought 3 each, thinking I could flip 2 to pay for the 1 I keep. Now I'm not sure what to do with my extra 2 of each. No resell value, and I hear you can't return partial orders.
I believe you can only return damaged coins/OGP.
No resale value much about cost plus ebay fees for now. I'm keeping one each for myself and one to sell when the proofs and reverse proofs release as a whole set later this year. The time to sell was really before release and about 2 days after.
That could change in a few months or a year from now, but no one really knows for sure what will happen.
@Rob9874 said:
I bought 3 each, thinking I could flip 2 to pay for the 1 I keep. Now I'm not sure what to do with my extra 2 of each. No resell value, and I hear you can't return partial orders.
@Rob9874 said:
I bought 3 each, thinking I could flip 2 to pay for the 1 I keep. Now I'm not sure what to do with my extra 2 of each. No resell value, and I hear you can't return partial orders.
I wouldn't say no resale value, just not at the price you had hoped for. You could always try to sell them here on the BST.
@Goldbully said:
Pops as of today, July 22, 2023.........
Morgan $1...96% MS70........was 98%
Peace $1....95.3% MS70.................was 97%
A slight decline from a few days ago......the next couple of weeks should show the true picture
The downward trend was due to more influx of First Strike and base labels (not necessarily the big boys), where the percent 70 is 81% and 78% for the Morgan and Peace uncs, respectively, versus the FDOI and Advanced Release labels (big boys), where the percent 70 is 100% and 99.8% for the Morgan and Peace uncs, respectively. The about 50% of the new population of graded coins on the pop report between 7/21 and 7/22 were First Strike and base labels. The percent of FDOI and Advance Release population of the total population graded were 86% for the Morgan and 83% for the Peace on 7/21, and dropped to 79% for each on 7/22. The percent of First Release and base label population of the total population graded were 14% for the Morgan and 17% for the Peace on 7/21, and jumped to 21% for each on 7/22.
.
Bottom line, the trend will continue downward for the percent 70s for these 2023 uncs. My guess is that they level off at 85-88% 70s.
.
Not unlike the 2021 Morgan and Pease issues:
(trend for percent 70 from 12/21 to 7/23)
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
Comments
You are not a major submitter. You (and I) can only get the posted terms.
I PERSONALLY BOUGHT A BULK SUBMISSION of 1000 PCGS slabs, proof sets and Ikes mostly. I paid $10 per slab INCLUDING THE COST OF THE COIN. How do you think the guy flipped it to me at that price of he was paying $14 per coin for the submission alone? He paid $7 each and flipped them to me at $10, coins included.
The submission debate was based on the pop numbers for these coins.
I mean, there's no point in paying a premium for a 70 if 96% of the coins are 70s.
I think we should debate what is or isn't allowed to be posted on this thread.
There are many varieties in this thread.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Latest pop report figures from PCGS and NGC - percent receiving 70:
.
However, the above table does not tell the entire story.
.
Looking at just "no special label", "Fun show" and First Strike / First Releases labels (ie, more likely collector submissions, no FDOI, or Advance Release labels reserved for the ABPP / big boys), the percent 70 is only 79% for Morgan $s and 81% for Peace $s !
.
For FDOI, or Advance Release labels reserved for the ABPP / big boys, there are a combined 4541 Morgan $s, and 4460 Peace $s graded so far, with 100% 70s for the Morgan $s, and 99.9% 70s for the Peace $s.
.
And, a) with the ABPP big boys having access to perhaps as much as 10% of the mintage of each (27,500) (but likely not taking that many - let's say no more than 20K), and b) that the grading for their submissions are likely mostly graded and reported, reconcile a combined 4541 Morgan $s, and 4460 Peace $s graded with FDOI, or Advance Release labels by PCGS and NGC so far (all 70s).
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
Point understood, but percent 70s right now is not what it will be in 4+ months, once collector submissions dilute the initial "minimum grade 70" submissions of the big boys.
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
I just released 2 of the RP set back into the wild if anyone wants to pick up more.
Now's the time for the unc flippers to panic.
Get 'em while they are cheap.
The flippers will survive. That's why they're always around. Even if they make a couple bucks per coin and get their postage covered, they will be fine and continue their flipping.
I agree. But my point is the relevance of the "submission argument". It was not intended to be OT. It was intended to help people (SOME people) understand the pop numbers.
I sold half my Morgans making, as you say, a few dollars per coin.
Some will, some will get bored and quit. I really don't care.
My point is this may be the cheapest point in time to purchase. There are 800K+ 2021s there are 275K unc 2023 Morgans.
A collector only wants one, usually.
It looks like these Morgan/Peace dollars are here to stay; I'd like to see a new Registry reflecting that in addition to the current 100th Anniversary Morgan/Peace set.
fka renman95, Sep 2005, 7,000 posts
break- even for sellers without a store is 91 dollars if you sell with free shipping. some sellers are losing money already in no reserve auctions. i think the downward trend continues, sellout is taking way too long
Sellout won't change the trajectory. Removing the flippers just speeds up the normal trajectory.
I think they will get cheaper. Much cheaper.
Actually, no. They are only going to go down as the excitement wears off and the people thinking the way you are ultimately capitulate and sell what they are hoarding.
And, no, there are NOT 800K+ 2021s. You have to consider each mint mark separately. If you are not willing to do that, you also don't have to consider each date separately.
At 175,000 per MM. last I checked 175,000 is less than 275,000. I guess my point is each of the 21’s has a different value with the Carson City being the Winner. The peace dollar is next in value. $275 CC or $250 peace dollar is way more than the fire sale prices for the 23’s. These are not winners. Ask JM who’s dumping his for not much money. Couple bucks 🤠
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
Good point.
I bought them from the mint because I wanted them for myself. As long as I receive decent ones I'll be happy.
If they get cheap enough I might pick up an extra for a pocket piece.
The quality was definitely much better than 2021.
Don't go by me. I don't believe in any Mint products and I dump them all ASAP.
Funny story. The only reason I even have these is i forgot I had a subscription on one of my accounts. Lol. The only ones I actually intended to get were the RP.
I think the RP will be the winners this year.
Since so many are being graded I'll just leave mine in their original holders and be happy with that. ;-)
Thoughts?
NGCX selling for a $20 premium seems ambitious, but it's a free country. Beyond that, $150 each as a starting point is exactly where I expected them to be, based on how many flew off the shelf at that price with the uncs.
The $64,000 Question is whether there will be sufficient incremental demand for proofs over uncs for pricing to remain consistent given the increased mintage. And no one actually knows the answer to that until they are released.
Sales patterns for any proof coin over its uncirculated counterpart suggests the mint knows what it's doing here (i.e., 400,000 proofs should hold their value similar to 275,000 uncs). OTOH, these really are unlike anything else the mint sells, including ASEs, so who really knows?
Also, subscription demand for the proofs suggests these might not sell out due to the increased mintage, in which case there would be no justification to sell proof 70s for the same price as the uncs. Unless, of course, proofs grade 70 at a lower rate, but there is nothing at this time to suggest that will be the case. In fact, it's entirely possible Pinehurst already has an early view into how they are grading.
Asking for a $40 premium for the same thing (top grade) in an NGCX holder versus a NGC holder.
Multiple possible variables in play. Regardless, wow...just wow.
.
Also, they are asking a similar premium for NGCX unc set versus NGC unc set.
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
Are NGCX holders available for everyone who submits? I honestly haven’t followed ngc’s policy on this since they started it. Perhaps the $40 extra is because they’re still exclusive to the select few.
Actually, the vast majority of the mintage will remain in the original mint packaging / ungraded by TPG.
Example: only 27-37% (depending on the specific issue) of the 2021 Morgan and Peace products have been graded by PCGS and NGC. Certainly, other TPGs graded a small fraction of the total mintage, but the total percent of the 2021 Morgan and Peace products in TPG holders is likely less than 40% at more than a year and a half since the mint delivered them to customers.
.
The point is that these 2023 Morgan and Peace dollars will likely follow suit, with the majority remaining in their mint packaging...at least for the first few years.
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
I bought my ngcx example for $13. Ouch. I did good 😊
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
I've personally bulk submitted in the past at $6 per coin- a couple thousand coins. But as I stated before - highest min grade accepted to holder is 69.
why is this so hard to understand? I believe this community has a large number of fairly bright people.
Anyway, I will yield to the intended discussion on this thread. Let whomever wants to debate what I've stated have the last word.
buliionexchanges.com:
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Well I got my Peace Dollars yesterday and I split my order with my dad. I will see him on Sunday and we will open the box together then.
I know the proof coins have a higher mintage, but that is the coin I am most excited to get in hand. I have always wanted a DCAM Morgan Dollar, but they have been out of my price range. But here is a chance to have one. I just think it is the most attractive silver coin made by the mint and to get a DCAM will be great. I can't wait until mid-August to get one of these.
Here is my Washington Quarter Variety Registry Set
This is my Washington Quarter Proof Variety Registry Set
Nothing today. Enjoy. Thanks 🙏
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
I got a lot of 3 peace in yesterday, i never return anything, just suck it up and go. But one of the 23 peace dollars was so bad, i had to return it, looks liked somebody threw a bottle of clorox on it. horrible
From the NGC website:
Source: https://www.ngccoin.com/specialty-services/ngcx-10-point-grading-scale/#faqs
Thank you for clarifying that
I'm almost sold out of both the Morgan and Peace dollars. Priced at $94 with a volume discount. That appears to be the right price to move them.
I actually sold 3 sets to a dealer ($89.29 each coin) who didn't have enough for his customers. So there is some demand out there. I don't know how long it will last.
Yes, why is it?
I bought 3 each, thinking I could flip 2 to pay for the 1 I keep. Now I'm not sure what to do with my extra 2 of each. No resell value, and I hear you can't return partial orders.
I believe you can only return damaged coins/OGP.
No resale value much about cost plus ebay fees for now. I'm keeping one each for myself and one to sell when the proofs and reverse proofs release as a whole set later this year. The time to sell was really before release and about 2 days after.
That could change in a few months or a year from now, but no one really knows for sure what will happen.
https://www.the4thcoin.com
https://www.ebay.com/str/thefourthcoin
From the Mint website:
Source: https://catalog.usmint.gov/customer-service/shipping.html
I wouldn't say no resale value, just not at the price you had hoped for. You could always try to sell them here on the BST.
You mean the "true collectors" bought multiples and want to return the extras. That sounds like "evil flipper" behavior to me.
I think many maybe doing this
Pops as of today, July 22, 2023.........
Morgan $1...96% MS70........was 98%
Peace $1....95.3% MS70.................was 97%
A slight decline from a few days ago......the next couple of weeks should show the true picture
The downward trend was due to more influx of First Strike and base labels (not necessarily the big boys), where the percent 70 is 81% and 78% for the Morgan and Peace uncs, respectively, versus the FDOI and Advanced Release labels (big boys), where the percent 70 is 100% and 99.8% for the Morgan and Peace uncs, respectively. The about 50% of the new population of graded coins on the pop report between 7/21 and 7/22 were First Strike and base labels. The percent of FDOI and Advance Release population of the total population graded were 86% for the Morgan and 83% for the Peace on 7/21, and dropped to 79% for each on 7/22. The percent of First Release and base label population of the total population graded were 14% for the Morgan and 17% for the Peace on 7/21, and jumped to 21% for each on 7/22.
.
Bottom line, the trend will continue downward for the percent 70s for these 2023 uncs. My guess is that they level off at 85-88% 70s.
.
Not unlike the 2021 Morgan and Pease issues:
(trend for percent 70 from 12/21 to 7/23)
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor