Sizeable losses for nice Fairmont coins tonight.
PeakRarities
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I was watching all of these coins end at GC tonight, and the end result left me feeling empathetic towards the consignor/s. I think many of them are from one collection, and many of them came from the "Hendricks Set" of the Fairmont Collection in the spring of 2022. For whatever reason, they were all dumped at GC tonight and some of the losses are sizeable. I'm not jumping to any conclusions, but mid-'22 was the peak of the market, and we all know it's not a good idea to dump a collection too soon afterward. Many of these are nice coins, close to top pop condition and original. Clearly, the market isn't quite as exuberant this year.
With that said, many (5 or 6 out of this group, but not all) of the APRs from that Stacks auction were NOT recorded as CAC APRs in the greysheet database. I would assume that the greysheet wholesale bid was never adjusted to reflect those sale figures, and part of me wonders if that may have had a significant impact on tonight's performance. Thoughts?
1.https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1639214/1848-Liberty-Gold-Eagle-PCGS-MS-62-CAC-Green
Grey Bid- $15,600
Final price (including juice) - $15,400
Sold for 19,200 in 2022
http://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-VJZ7O/1848-liberty-head-eagle-ms-62-pcgs-cac
- https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1639229/1840-Liberty-Gold-Eagle-PCGS-MS-60-CAC-Green#gallery-3
Grey Bid- $19,200
Final - $17,600
Sold for 22,800 in 2022
https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-VJYZZ/1840-liberty-head-eagle-ms-60-pcgs-cac
Grey Bid- $26,400
Final - $31,900
Sold for $32,400 in 2022
https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-VJZLK/1862-liberty-head-eagle-ms-61-pcgs-cac
Grey Bid - $16,800
Final- $21,700
Sold for $31,200 in 2022
https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-VJZVF/1873-s-liberty-head-eagle-au-58-pcgs-cac
Grey Bid- $36,000
Final - $30,310
Sold for $40,800 in 2022
Grey Bid- $19,800
Final - 20,400
Sold for $26,400 in 2022
Grey Bid - $26,400
Final - $26,950
Sold for $33,600 in 2022
https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-VK0X2/1866-liberty-head-double-eagle-ms-62-pcgs-cac
Grey Bid- $17,500
Final - $17,156
Sold for $31,200 in 2022
https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-VK0ZL/1870-s-liberty-head-double-eagle-ms-62-pcgs-cac
Comments
I bought and sold coins tonight at GC for (overall) softer levels than I expected. I am “chalking it up” to tonight being a holiday weekend auction and bidders were “MIA”. It happens to the best of us. Again, thrilled I picked off a couple coins at super levels and a touch disappointed that I sold a few at lower levels than I expected.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin.
Mitch, I took my lumps on a couple coins I sold through GC tonight, a bit more than I was expecting. It swings both ways though, as I too won a really nice coin at what I thought was a rip. Win some, lose some i guess.
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Not mine, but this $10 bi metal Library sold for under melt.
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1649592/2000-W-Library-of-Congress-Bicentennial-Bi-Metallic-10-PCGS-Proof-69-DCAM-US-Vault-Collection
‘’Mitch, I took my lumps on a couple coins I sold through GC tonight, a bit more than I was expecting. It swings both ways though, as I too won a really nice coin at what I thought was a rip. Win some, lose some i guess.’’
Absolutely - the key for both of us (I assume) - was to immediately pivot from recognizing we were having softer sales tonight to “cashing in” on that observation and “running off” with a coin or two at excellent buy levels. You’ve got to be a “chameleon” in this market to thrive and survive - yes?
Wondercoin
Not to mention this Harry Bass 1799 $10 in the very tough BD-9 variety.
Sold in the Harry Bass auction January 2022 for $63k.
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1351153/
Went for $47k tonight (which is arguably the right price as the coin seems more like a 61 but still a large drawdown).
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Nothing really exciting about those particular dates, maybe the cc.
Yeah seems a little weak but those original buy prices were too strong IMO. Caught up in the Fairmont hype might be correct.
Overall weak though I agree.
I wouldn't want nice/pricey items to be auctioned on certain holidays/weekends. Labor Day being one of them as many schools restarting/restarted, last family summer vacations, holiday anyway, etc. I feel same way about Christmas and New Years as well.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
I sold multiple coins one week ago on GC including a few nice stickered gold coins and overall I was quite happy with my results.
Labor Day weekend probably isn’t the best weekend to be selling coins. With the massive Fairmont dump and the possibility of future sales it’s no surprise that the Fairmont market might be softening.
There are six 1884-CC $10s and four1862 $10s in the Fairmont hoard. It’s probably unrealistic for a consignor to expect to do well in a resale. With selling fees if I was a consignor I would be ecstatic if I broke even and if I got 90% back I’d be content.
Probably not the best weekend to put up those coins, or any for that matter. For many people this is a 3-4 day long time away, not just a one day Holiday. Congrats to the winners. I wish coins in the series I collect were part of this discounted event.
Successful BST with BustDMs , Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino (CBH's - 37 Die Marriage's)
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
There were no bargains on the Plats I was tracking tonight, and my bid was left in the dust.
I knew it would happen.
I did not like the Fairmont 1866 $20 PCGS/CAC MS-62 so I did not bid beyond a really cheap price. Was pretty neutral with the Fairmont 1890 $20 PCGS/CAC and it sold at an ok price.
The Fairmont $20 Libs were hit and miss in quality for the assigned grades which might account for the hit and miss sale prices?
You both saved on current tax dollars in selling your coins at a discount and buying new coins at an equal discount rather than at a premium on both the sale/new purchase.
I was hoping to grab a few for inventory, but the gold coins I was bidding on went for right at around PCGS/CAC stated retail prices (slight above and slight below and well above greysheet bid) in their respective guides so did not get them. Not examples in the $10s of K though like the ones above. I also assumed last nite would be modest in bidding bc of holiday weekend. At least for these, it was not, fairly normal price levels I am seeing on the kinds of examples I want in the few thousands range.
I guess the big boys are out on holiday more than us small fish?
Best, SH
Not nearly in the same category as the OP but these went for multiples beyond guide. Apparently someone found them as attractive as I did and valued them more. I was blown away at what they went for, when others fail to even make grey sheet.
https://greatcollections.com/Coin/1645476/1970-D-Kennedy-Half-Dollar-PCGS-MS-65-Toned
hhttps://greatcollections.com/Coin/1649263/1941-Walking-Liberty-Half-Dollar-PCGS-MS-66-Tonedttp://
"Why waste time learning, when ignorance is instantaneous?"- Calvin and Hobbes
In general, it's far more likely that a lower value coin can sell for a large/huge premium than it is a higher value coin.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Apples and oranges. There's no greysheet price for toners
Yes and don't forget about Super bowl Sunday, when one year a while back I got killed with my Ebay listings.
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I will say that live auctions are a lot more fun to watch.
The promotion that goes into the Stack's and Heritage auctions is superior and brings in bidders.
Successful BST with BustDMs , Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino (CBH's - 37 Die Marriage's)
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
I thought gold commeoratives were dead until last night.
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1639315/1905-Lewis-and-Clark-Exposition-Gold-Dollar-PCGS-MS-66-CAC-Green
Sold for $17,750 plus buyer's commission. Population 22 : 1 at CAC $9,000. PCGS Price Guide $5,000. No MS66CAC had ever previously sold at GC
Could you explain further, please.
I've heard this before from others. GC states that's not an issue. Since GC can be counted on to run Sunday night auctions like clockwork, should they offer the option to consignors of not having their coins in a holiday weekend auction?
One example (or even several) doesn't necessarily say anything about the current strength or weakness of a market segment.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I thought it would be wise to restrain myself from stating "bidding war." But, you made me say it.
Yes sir, I am rapidly finding that out.
"Why waste time learning, when ignorance is instantaneous?"- Calvin and Hobbes
Selling Coin A to recognize a tax loss, buying Coin B at a lower cost basis and gains are deferred until sale (or death) but (assuming equivalent dollar amounts, total amount "invested" is the same.
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I don't disagree with Dan's overall assessment. There have been at least some seemingly soft prices in the last few months in the gold market. Unfortunately for me, not on coins I am bidding on.
I am a fan of Ian and GC. But based on my limited experience, I have had better luck consigning 4 figure and 3 figure coins with GC than I have with 5 figure coins. There could be a whole lot of reasons for that.
I think pcgscacgold is not wrong about at least some coins benefiting from live auctions. GC is based on Ian's experience with Teletrade, which was a platform for 3 and 4 figure coins. I am not convinced it translates that well to coins above a certain value.
The new photos are a big plus for GC. I am not sure what difference this makes in final auction prices but I certainly appreciate them.
All JMO.
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
Six months to a year ago, I believed we were entering a weird phase where price decreases were driven by a suffering economy. Recently I’ve been convinced there is indeed a correction occurring. Likely, a mix of both.
It’s happening in nearly all classes of collectibles. One thing the card guys seem to have a better grasp on is recognizing this. They seem to be much more flexible in making adjustments and being honest about the state of their hobby. Prices simply spiked during and post-Covid are returning to Earth.
Yes, no one sale is an example for an entire market change. There are myriad factors at play in every sale. But this is far from isolated.
Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.
@PeakRarities Interesting analysis, which is greatly appreciated, and also a good read for anyone who analyzes coin pricing. For my part, I am pleased with how Greysheet levels "performed" against the results. I also think GC's results (for the items listed here) were very much in line with my expectations.
At CDN, we have observed some softening of the better-date gold market this year and we try to stay in line with predicted market values. Translation: we have been lowering values on a number of great coins this year which is not always popular with a marketplace that wants to see prices go up every month/year no matter what.
IMO, other price guides have been far too generous with value trends. Obviously this is a huge selling point for those putting their hard-earned dollars in rare coins that you should be a subscriber. At Greysheet we are totally objective with our pricing. Of course, we aren't always right and it makes good sense to watch other price guides and real auction data to make a value determination.
Finally, I will say that the April 2022 sale of Fairmont Coins definitely felt like a high-water mark. I suspected, at the time, there was a bidding war between several strong collectors that pushed results far above what I considered reasonable at the time. This often happens in collectibles markets. The Missouri Cabinet sale of Tenttenhorst/Newman half cents (January 2014) was another such event. Throw the APR's out on these two sales and you'll be better off...
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p.s. this 1799 $10 Large Stars, PCGS MS62 (BD-9) was a bit of a surprise. As a BD #, it's R6 versus R3 for the only other BD variety (BD-10) yet this auction results reduces its market premium to just 10% over the much more plentiful BD-10 variety. My read on this is the market just place a strong premium on early eagles by specialist die variety. Actually, this is also in line with my perceptions.
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1351153/
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PNG: Executive Director (www.pngdealers.org)
Great analysis.
Also, in April 2022, nobody expected there to be more Fairmont "Super Sets", and especially not 3X a year!
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That's exactly what I am doing, although my better half thinks I am crazy.
Thanks for your comments John, I appreciate you chiming in. I agree that the Greysheet figures were fairly accurate in relation to last nights prices. IMO, Greysheet/CPG is by far the most accurate guide system.
Many of these coins were relatively uninteresting dates in my opinion, though the 73-s is arguably THE nicest and most original example. There’s two in 58cac, one of them is ok, but this one is fantastic for the grade.
In regard to the 1799 BD-9, it’s just that no one cares very much about varieties, and there’s not many “Bass-esque” collections that set out to have a complete collection of die marriages.
Also, in my opinion, the coin is ugly and over-graded, I don’t even know if I’d buy at 61 money (actually, I guess I do know, since that’s basically what it sold for). Bass didn’t have the luxury of choosing all appealing examples, he had to take what he can get.
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"macroeconomic variables, including per capita income has been considered relevant because as indicated by
Prado Roman (2012), the performance of the auction market depends on the purchasing power of its investors or collectors, so if they don’t have a high purchasing power, there may be a decrease in the value of the auctioned good. In turn, the CPI is a relevant variable to consider when evaluating investments as determined by Coca Perez (1998)....
Generalized regression neuronal networks to predict the value of numismatic assets. Evidence for the walking liberty half dollar, Alcazar-Blanco, et. al. , 2021
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/294067/1/1775621197.pdf
Just to be fair to Harry Bass, in addition to discovering the varieties and having little choice in what he bought, he DID have a very nice BD-9. But, after his death, someone (presumably the trustees of his trust) decided to sell the very attractive AU instead of the much less attractive Unc.
https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-IXTY7/1799-capped-bust-right-eagle-bd-9-taraszka-21-rarity-6-large-obverse-stars-au-58-pcgs-cac
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US & World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
Just running some numbers after reading this last night and enjoying some of the comments this morning. Interesting thread by the OP, and some good comments about venues, holiday slots and exuberant buying.
#
FWIW, I did not go back and try to analyze comp's or make an opinion on the relative quality of the coins for the grade.
.
For the eight coins, the consigner(s) lost 23.6% on a Price Realized vs Price Realized basis.
While one nearly broke even, and one lost 45%, generally the ~23% loss was consistent.
Prices Realized were 2.1% greater than CDN's numbers.
A couple were strong (comparatively) and one was weak ... with the other five mostly in line.
Sometime of the relative strengths and weaknesses between Prices Paid and CDN values, and the Prices Realized where not consistent.
In summary, considering a short holding window and a slightly over-saturated market (from my understanding), these numbers do not seem terrible. In fact, if I consider my own collecting history (about 37 years of varied involvement), I think this is more normal than not, especially when "pushing" a sale.
"Commodification" of many pieces of numismatic importance has shrunk the buy and sell spreads, but we must remember there is varying supply and demand and the collectors and capital to chase them, and sometimes auction prices stray positive and negative towards current trends on any given day and at any given venue.
Just my 2c ...
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Thank you for the clarification, now that’s a coin I’d like to buy. Certainly the nicer of the two, just another display of how “the grade” can be totally irrelevant.
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I had some seated quarter dups sell last night. Overall 70% of PCGS guide, which is a little softer than previous sales.
@Manifest_Destiny . If you are talking about Seated Quarters in last nights Great Collection sale, I will admit I usually am a strong bidder but did not need any of those dates. Probably means nothing but there are times I wonder just how many people are actually competing sometimes. Thin market and all that. James
The problem is, each coin is unique, alot of coins going through auctions are not always the best for the grade and type, hence the auction data can be skewed to an average or lower common denominator compared to the value really PQ coins. Rick Snow has pointed this out for years..................
Best, SH
The 1873-S Fairmont $10 is a very rare and outstanding coin. When SB auctioned the coin in 2022 the CAC pop was only one and it’s now two which can’t be helping the price. I can’t find an image of the new CAC coin. Type 2 with motto $10s are not as popular as Type ones. Between Fairmont saturating the market and economic uncertainty in an election year collector/dealers may be more conservative buyers moving forward.
Looking at the OP I wanted to verify that the Grey Bid was the Bid and not the CPG and it is the Bid as noted in the OP.
So I wonder if selling at auction would one be satisfied if their coins were sold 'all in' for Grey Bid?
What spaceH noted above might have something to do with that answer. That is, what one realistically thought of their coins that they had at auction.
Also I suspect (I did not check) the OP is reporting the GC value based off of the 12.5% buyers fee. So this would impact the amount a seller would be receiving (and also might impact what the coin actually sold for or 10% buyers fee).
At some point it might be better to sell directly - No? This is similar to buying directly versus through auction. Of course sometimes the coin can't be found and the auction is the source. When selling sometimes a buyer of the group can't be found and would require selling coin by coin or consigning and waiting to see results over time. So get it done with one consignment. All depends on the individuals wants, needs, desires...
I noticed that Greysheet has changed some of the numbers and it appears that the Grey Bid (and not CPG) is now more in line with what these coins sold for. So this goes to the semi-never-ending question - Are auction results representative of wholesale or retail? And of course there is no one answer as it can vary for auction to auction or even lot to lot.
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The US rare coin market is large, diverse and unregulated. It is difficult to pinpoint a market high, such as "mid-22". Also, the examples you provided are all from what are in my opinion, thinly traded series. The demand for rare-date Liberty head gold (whether quarter-eagles, half-eagles, eagles or double eagles) is limited compared to examples more suitable for a US gold type set. There are few collectors who could aspire to complete a collection of any of those series. The presence or absence of only one or two bidders can have a substantial effect on auction prices realized in such cases.
Here is one example of a coin (which I bid on) that ended yesterday at GC:
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1647656/1807-Capped-Bust-Right-Gold-Half-Eagle-PCGS-AU-58
This nice example of a draped bust gold half eagle was graded AU58 by PCGS (no CAC sticker), and sold for a healthy $11,025. This compares to its last sale at Heritage 11/20: lot 3396 where it sold for $8700.
Lately I feel I the bidding has been stronger than it was earlier this year. I didn't have a whole lot of luck last night but I felt I got one good deal for ~$124 all-in.
Pretty toning. I would be interested to hear your opinion after you examine the coin in-hand. I have personally received lots I won at GC as early as Tuesday following the Sunday auction. Ian and his team are really on the ball.
Don't ya just love it when coins go on "sale"?
Good for the buyers for sure. Not often we get bargain priced coins to purchase.
bob
On multiple consignments of mine to GC, I wrote “do not end on Sunday [insert date]”, knowing that it was a holiday weekend and would have a higher likelihood of softer sales and lower net proceeds for me.
If indeed hammer prices are empirically lower on major holiday weekends, does the auctioneer have any responsibility to the consigner to warn them of that, especially on a very high value consignment such as this Fairmont group?
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
The other 58cac is currently for sale in RCW’s inventory for 43k, but I MUCH prefer the fairmont example.
I have no idea what the two pcgs 61 examples look like, but the PCGS 62 was the Bass specimen that was found in Europe. I grade that one AU58 as well, and I think the fairmont coin is head and shoulders the best out of the bunch.
Fairmont-
https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-VJZVF/1873-s-liberty-head-eagle-au-58-pcgs-cac
Bass coin (overgraded)
https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/1-1DLNL/1873-s-liberty-eagle-ms-62-pcgs
Other 58cac (not for me, too bright)
https://www.ebay.com/itm/176326098306?mkcid=16&mkevt=1&mkrid=711-127632-2357-0&ssspo=HRL8pQrCTfC&sssrc=4429486&ssuid=vNwu7E9LSDO&var=&widget_ver=artemis&media=COPY
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The most astonishing result, of any lot, from any auction that I have seen in over 40 years, was a 1796 no pole, lot 31 in Goldberg’s September 2008 pre-Long Beach sale of the Roy Rouse collection of US half cents. Graded F15 by PCGS, it brought $345,000.
Yes, the “grey bid” I was referencing was the greysheet wholesale bid, not the CPG retail, which is 20% higher.
The figures I reported as the “final” sale amount reflect hammer plus 10%. Though GC shows 12.5% in the link, buyers of coins like these are using either e-check or wire and saving the 2.5%.the amount the consignor netted was likely 90% of the “final” figure.
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Yeah, I would’ve thought this was kind of a common knowledge thing in the field? Even on lowly eBay I’ve had my biggest scores over holidays, specifically Thanksgiving week. Then again, I think the feeling is for coins of this level the market will always show up and the demand is somewhat automatic. Perhaps not? Time will tell.
I’d like to add: I know GC knows what they’re doing. I’m sure the timing was made with due diligence and being wholly well informed.
Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.