Here's a 53-D five that is pre-Fairmont. PCGS 53 CAC
Brian, I believe this coin was formerly in your collection. I acquired it from DW in 2016?.
I don't hate the Fairmont look, it just that the name "Fairmont" is starting to have a negative response in the
market with the apparently never ending supply.
I believe @RYK owned that coin. I remember it but don’t recall owning it personally.
@sellitstore said:
Thirty to forty years ago, when I was more directly involved with several large auctioneers, numismatic and non >numismatic, I can remember hearing word of a huge hoard of gold in Venezuela. Some negotiations took place back >then but the coins didn't come north. I think that they finally have been sold. The excitement is fading and prices >are declining.
There was some posts here by someone with connections to Venezuela officials who was confident that Fairmont was largely of Venezuelan origins.
No proof, but plausible.
.
I have heard that the origin is Argentina, not Venezuela. The bank that owned them was considering sending them all to the smelter, until someone suggested that they should consider the potential collector value. I have seen two Fairmont branch-mint Classic-Head $5 Half Eagles that have "wheel marks" on them from when a rubber wheel from a modern counting machine did a burn-out across the face.
@sellitstore said:
Thirty to forty years ago, when I was more directly involved with several large auctioneers, numismatic and non >numismatic, I can remember hearing word of a huge hoard of gold in Venezuela. Some negotiations took place back >then but the coins didn't come north. I think that they finally have been sold. The excitement is fading and prices >are declining.
There was some posts here by someone with connections to Venezuela officials who was confident that Fairmont was largely of Venezuelan origins.
@PeakRarities said:
The one counterpoint to that is how the majority of the gold really does have it’s own “fairmont look”, which many >collectors are actually tired of. I likesd that this wasn’t the typical green-gold, but regardless, this caliber of >provenance on this coin being “repatriated” raises some questions…
Isn't that a POSITIVE, Peak ? Some have commented that the Fairmont coins, even if not the highest quality, have an authentic, non-altered surface look.....REAL gold...whatever that means.
BTW, Part 7 is now availabe at the DW blog. If you're like Chevy Chase and don't like Math , the last few blog posts have involved some intricate formulas and calculations.
Don't forget to go back to read ANYTHING on Fairmont at the DW Blog (I think it starts in 2018 or 2019 but picks up in 2022/23)....Parts 1-4 of the Guest Blogger/Richard Radick series are also very instructive.
@PeakRarities said:
The one counterpoint to that is how the majority of the gold really does have it’s own “fairmont look”, which many >collectors are actually tired of. I likesd that this wasn’t the typical green-gold, but regardless, this caliber of >provenance on this coin being “repatriated” raises some questions…
Peak, excellent point.
But that would only be for the graded & certified FAIRMONT COLLECTION coins....that may or may not be the case with the graded coins (without FAIRMONT on the label) and the raw, ungraded coins which comprises probably 95-97% of the hoard.
The Klunker Sale in Fall 2020 was thought to be possibly Fairmont coins, but commentaries since indicate probably not.
Of note....that sale had these scarce and semi-rare Saints in moderately high mint state: 1908-S Saint (4 coins), 1924-S Saint (8 coins), and the 1925-D Saint (1 coin).
Garrett, Winters, and others note the surge in overseas repatriated hoards coming in recent years. If we assume that 95-97% of the coins in Fairmont (and maybe other smaller collections) are basically just circulated bullion coins with minimal or no numismatic value...and that they were found about a decade ago (maybe accumulated in the 2014-2017 period).... then the near doubling in the price of gold probably is a reason why all this gold is coming out NOW as opposed to previous drops after the GFC (2008) or Euro Crisis (2011).
I talked to someone involved with the hoard. Fairmont was the hotel where the meeting happened to discuss selling the coins. Other firms are selling the coins also, but not using the Fairmont name. I was told there could be a million coins worth a billion dollars. The coins came from Venezuela.
@Coinobsessed said:
I talked to someone involved with the hoard. Fairmont was the hotel where the meeting happened to discuss selling the coins. Other firms are selling the coins also, but not using the Fairmont name. I was told there could be a million coins worth a billion dollars. The coins came from Venezuela.
I have heard the Venezuela rumor before - do you have anything to substantiate it?
True to the thread. Some of the Fairmont coins did not do too well the second time around. In particular, the $5 1864-S in 58 sold for $192k all in whereas it sold for $264k back in 4/22. That was the most significant drop in price that I saw. I followed closely the $5 1861-C. It's price was about 2k less that what is sold for back in 4/22.
Rare gold isn’t my specialty, but I imagine the market is pretty thin for that ‘64-s. Thin markets are volatile.
Assuming the players are the same, with the top bidder from the prior auction out, the under bidder is only competing with the second under bidder, who may have been willing to go much less far.
Also, the coin is no longer “fresh”, that’s important re: bidding psychology. And this second auction is against the backdrop of a continued flood of Fairmont coins, which introduces some risk another ‘64-s washes ashore.
Market context is different too. Short-term rates were still near zero in 4/22, and the 10y was 250bp lower. At 4.5%-5% interest on cash today, that’s a $10k/yr holding/opportunity cost for a $200k coin.
I expect that rewashed coins in thin markets that hammered only a few years ago will generally continue to fare worse.
@sellitstore said:
Thirty to forty years ago, when I was more directly involved with several large auctioneers, numismatic and non >numismatic, I can remember hearing word of a huge hoard of gold in Venezuela. Some negotiations took place back >then but the coins didn't come north. I think that they finally have been sold. The excitement is fading and prices >are declining.
There was some posts here by someone with connections to Venezuela officials who was confident that Fairmont was largely of Venezuelan origins.
No proof, but plausible.
.
I have heard that the origin is Argentina, not Venezuela. The bank that owned them was considering sending them all to the smelter, until someone suggested that they should consider the potential collector value. I have seen two Fairmont branch-mint Classic-Head $5 Half Eagles that have "wheel marks" on them from when a rubber wheel from a modern counting machine did a burn-out across the face.
I just saw Stacks has another batch selling in a February auction - I bet some people are happy they sold for numismatic value rather than melt (if those rumors/stories are correct).
What is the overall pct of CDN bid they (Fairmont material) realized after the juice? Do you think those sellers would have done better shopping them around the bourse at a show?
@earlyAurum said:
This is a very interesting discussion. The Fairmont coins amount to a massive increase in $20, $10 and $5 material.
Don't forget that for all the negatives about Fairmont...the LOOK of the coins..."original gold surfaces"...is a definite plus.
Lots of great posts a few weeks back...I would only say that you have to take into account DEMAND for all the population totals being impacted by new supply. If it's a Top Pop or Near Top Pop coin....and the price is very high.... the overall demand for that coin could be strong but not at $50,000 for an AU-58 or MS-65 or whatever.
As an example, I think the 1927-D Saint market could handle a Mystery Hoard of a 4-5 AU-58's for folks who want to complete a Registry Set on a budget. But 4-5 new 1927-D's in the MS-66 or MS-67 range would definitely depress pricing at the top end for that rare series.
@dcarr said:
I have heard that the origin is Argentina, not Venezuela. The bank that owned them was considering sending them >all to the smelter, until someone suggested that they should consider the potential collector value. I have seen two >Fairmont branch-mint Classic-Head $5 Half Eagles that have "wheel marks" on them from when a rubber wheel >from a modern counting machine did a burn-out across the face.
I could believe that. Record-keeping in many of these South and Central American countries/banks is very spotty, decades after everything went digital and computerized.
I'm just surprised that there are folks not aware that you could be losing a fortune by assuming coins or other ingots or bars are worth only bullion value. Many of those coins have sold for 10-50x their gold content. Smart decision not to just assume they had no numismatic value !
@originalisbest said:
Shades of 1903-O dollars (sorta.) I've enjoyed this discussion -- and grateful that the only gold coins I have are >strictly common dates!
With the 1903-O's....you had such a rarity that folks like David Bowers had never owned one after a decade of being in the busines. Population estimates were all over the map but most assumed survivorship was single-digits (< 10 coins). Maybe low single-digits.
Then...you literally had tens of thousands of high mint state coins available. Went from an ultra-rarity to super-common in the span of weeks.
@Coinobsessed said:
I talked to someone involved with the hoard. Fairmont was the hotel where the meeting happened to discuss >selling the coins. Other firms are selling the coins also, but not using the Fairmont name. I was told there could be a >million coins worth a billion dollars. The coins came from Venezuela.
Wow...that is interesting. The size of the hoard doesn't surprise me, DW's blog got the direction correct they were just low on the total.
Another individual with family ties to Venezuela said the same thing. Isn't proof...but 2 independent sources coming to the same country as the source is interesting.
@earlyAurum said:
This is a very interesting discussion. The Fairmont coins amount to a massive increase in $20, $10 and $5 material.
Don't forget that for all the negatives about Fairmont...the LOOK of the coins..."original gold surfaces"...is a definite plus.
Lots of great posts a few weeks back...I would only say that you have to take into account DEMAND for all the population totals being impacted by new supply. If it's a Top Pop or Near Top Pop coin....and the price is very high.... the overall demand for that coin could be strong but not at $50,000 for an AU-58 or MS-65 or whatever.
As an example, I think the 1927-D Saint market could handle a Mystery Hoard of a 4-5 AU-58's for folks who want to complete a Registry Set on a budget. But 4-5 new 1927-D's in the MS-66 or MS-67 range would definitely depress pricing at the top end for that rare series.
Not that I wish for this to happen, but it would be wild if say, 3,000 unc '27-D's came to light. As well as 10,000 1921's. I'm sure if that were to happen, somebody might try to let out a select few, and melt the remainder.
@earlyAurum said:
True to the thread. Some of the Fairmont coins did not do too well the second time around. In particular, the $5 >1864-S in 58 sold for $192k all in whereas it sold for $264k back in 4/22. That was the most significant drop in price >that I saw. I followed closely the $5 1861-C. It's price was about 2k less that what is sold for back in 4/22.
For high-end coins, the market can be alot thinner as DW noted several times. The market can aborb a few dozen 4 or low 5-figure coins to the existing supply total...but a low-single digit pop census can be impacted greatly by 2 or 3 new additions.
Speculators also may have bid recklessly in the earlier auctions; you had collectors paying FMV most recently without any froth.
RR wrote a Final Wrap-Up post commemorating the end of the Fairmont auctions over at DW's site:
@earlyAurum said:
True to the thread. Some of the Fairmont coins did not do too well the second time around. In particular, the $5 >1864-S in 58 sold for $192k all in whereas it sold for $264k back in 4/22. That was the most significant drop in price >that I saw. I followed closely the $5 1861-C. It's price was about 2k less that what is sold for back in 4/22.
For high-end coins, the market can be alot thinnger as DW noted several times. The market can aborb a few dozen 4 or low 5-figure coins to the existing supply total...but a low-single digit pop census can be impacted greatly by 2 or 3 new additions.
Speculators also may have bid recklessly in the earlier auctions; you had collectors paying FMV most recently without any froth.
RR wrote a Final Wrap-Up post commemorating the end of the Fairmont auctions over at DW's site:
The market has seemed a tad soft for sometime IMO. However Scarce low pop coins, key dates sb doing well as far as coin there. Holiday weekends can be a mixed bag for consignors. If major show on a weekend many in coin club have scored good pickoffs from auctions.
Tks sharing results vs bid on those big ticket coins coming out the gate - those are really fantastic high demand coins.
@MFeld said:
Thanks for the link. That was a wonderful article!
Thanks Mark...I found RR's analyses fascinataing, if at times the math and time series a bit over my head. I felt like I was back in calculus class my senior year of high school !
I find the secrecy regarding hoards -- even after the coins have all been sold -- to be one of the more frustrating points of this hobby.
@mattniss
Clearly a ton of work went into this! A fascinating read. Thanks for sharing @GoldFinger1969!
You're quite welcome, happy to do my part. Give RR and DW the credit, they did all the legwork. The time and effort on those time series staring in Part IV was really in-depth and time consuming. Very complicated functions and data crunching.
Hopefully the folks behind the Fairmont Collection and SBG will give us more details now that they no longer have to worry about impacting market prices.
@MFeld said:
Thanks for the link. That was a wonderful article!
Thanks Mark...I found RR's analyses fascinataing, if at times the math and time series a bit over my head. I felt like I was back in calculus class my senior year of high school !
I find the secrecy regarding hoards -- even after the coins have all been sold -- to be one of the more frustrating points of this hobby.
Hopefully the folks behind the Fairmont Collection and SBG will give us more details now that they no longer have to worry about impacting market prices.
But should they be concerned about legal liability? I would be angry if I bought into SB marketing hype in the early Fairmont auctions only to learn that SB had knowledge of significant Fairmont populations to be auctioned at future dates and did not disclose such. I'm sure they are well protected with legal language or maybe they did disclose that more Fairmont coins could/would come up in future auctions...just sayin! Fair disclosure I did not bid or buy any Fairmont coins.
@MFeld said:
Thanks for the link. That was a wonderful article!
Thanks Mark...I found RR's analyses fascinataing, if at times the math and time series a bit over my head. I felt like I was back in calculus class my senior year of high school !
I find the secrecy regarding hoards -- even after the coins have all been sold -- to be one of the more frustrating points of this hobby.
Hopefully the folks behind the Fairmont Collection and SBG will give us more details now that they no longer have to worry about impacting market prices.
But should they be concerned about legal liability? I would be angry if I bought into SB marketing hype in the early Fairmont auctions only to learn that SB had knowledge of significant Fairmont populations to be auctioned at future dates and did not disclose such. I'm sure they are well protected with legal language or maybe they did disclose that more Fairmont coins could/would come up in future auctions...just sayin! Fair disclosure I did not bid or buy any Fairmont coins.
While I can certainly understand why potential buyers would prefer such, I can’t see where sellers have any legal obligation to disclose how many coins are in a collection or accumulation that they will be selling.
It would be an entirely different matter if, prior to selling, the sellers were to make a representation regarding the specific quantity of coins to be sold, buyers relied upon that representation and it turned out to be false.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@JW77 said:
But should they be concerned about legal liability? I would be angry if I bought into SB marketing hype in the early >Fairmont auctions only to learn that SB had knowledge of significant Fairmont populations to be auctioned at future >dates and did not disclose such. I'm sure they are well protected with legal language or maybe they did disclose that >more Fairmont coins could/would come up in future auctions...just sayin! Fair disclosure I did not bid or buy any >Fairmont coins.
Like Mark said, only if the seller made guarantees about limited supply would they have any liability. And I can't see them even giving a verbal, off-the-cuff general assurance there.
We know more active bidders stepped away because they didn't know what was coming in terms of supply.
Ironically, the biggest problem wasn't "affordable gold" where large volumes could hit and greatly expand the population (demand often increased to meet the supply as DW & RR noted)...but those very low-single digit high-5 figure or 6-figure coins that suddenly had 2 or 3 new members -- and no new bidders.
@GoldFinger1969
No disagreement , but still a bummer to have paid "top dollar" for the early auction/auctions Fairmont coins, only to have meaningful population increases bring down values. @MFeld "While I can certainly understand why potential buyers would prefer such, I can’t see where sellers have any legal obligation to disclose how many coins are in a collection or accumulation that they will be selling.
It would be an entirely different matter if, prior to selling, the sellers were to make a representation regarding the specific quantity of coins to be sold, buyers relied upon that representation and it turned out to be false."
Mark, trying to throw me off with logic! LOL. I happen to agree!
@JW77 said: @MFeld@GoldFinger1969
No disagreement with you guys, but still a bummer to have paid "top dollar" for the early auction/auctions Fairmont coins, only to have meaningful population increases bring down values.
JW, did you get hit with subsqequent Fairmont sales/auctions ?
Agree about paying up early. Also, prices were higher in the early years of Covid because this was during the entire NFT craze and folks bid up collectibles and it spilled over into coins. Lots of coins appear to have peaked in price in 2021-22.
@GoldFinger1969 "JW, did you get hit with subsqequent Fairmont sales/auctions ?"
Nope, fortunately I was working on a Saint date set during this timeframe and didn't see anything in the Fairmont offering that fit my requirements, although from viewing the DW article it seems like Saints were barely impacted unlike the LIBs. I did pick up a nice 1923D PCGS 66+ CAC from SB last year, but so far the value has held up. 8 down and 10 dates to go, excluding 1921 and murder's row 1929-1932, which at this time is not in my budget, although I'm still riding my hopes on crypto to make my killing.
@JW77 said:
although from viewing the DW article it seems like Saints were barely impacted unlike the LIBs.
Yeah, I haven't seen any analyses on the Forums or at DW's site on Fairmont Saints. If you use the total estimated Double Eagle estimate from RR, it was about 90,000 Liberty Heads and just over 60,000 Saints. But if you assume that the "collection" was based on the East Coast of the U.S. about 1932 it stands to reason that the Saint population would mostly be Philly Mint 1920's from earlier in the decade (which circulated and/or came back from Europe later in the decade). Those are commons for the most part but I know the SB auctions had some nice Saints in more scarce years/mints and in nice grades.
I believe the certified "pedigreed" Fairmonts out of the 8,300 total graded gold coins/DE's......about 2,250 Liberty Head DEs but only about 270 Saints.
I did pick up a nice 1923D PCGS 66+ CAC from SB last year, but so far the value has held up. 8 down and 10 dates to >go, excluding 1921 and murder's row 1929-1932, which at this time is not in my budget, although I'm still riding my >hopes on crypto to make my killing.
Yes, my 1923-D PCGS 66 that I bought at FUN 2020 seems to be doing OK. Bigger rise in gold since I bought mine (about a double). If gold hits $4,000 then we both might be seeing the premiums fade, me more so.
@originalisbest said:
Not that I wish for this to happen, but it would be wild if say, 3,000 unc '27-D's came to light. As well as 10,000 >1921's. I'm sure if that were to happen, somebody might try to let out a select few, and melt the remainder.
Actually, if the number of Mint State Gems or Super Gems were nil or very limited, you could have a repeat of the 1857-S DE Liberty and SSCA situation....where the high end DID go down a bit (increased supply) but even with more supply at lower grades prices WENT UP because interest SKYROCKETED because of all the publicity and folks wanted a shipwreck coin, a piece of American history, an affordable 1857-S suddenly available, etc. etc. etc.
@Cougar1978 said:
What is the overall pct of CDN bid they (Fairmont material) realized after the juice? Do you think those sellers >would have done better shopping them around the bourse at a show?
Cougar, are you talking about the coins that were NOT the certified and pedigreed ones ? The certified (graded) and pedigreed (FAIRMONT on the label) coins numbered about 8,300....and approximatly 80% were sold at auctions but about 1,500 coins were NOT sold and have been given to dealers/distributors to market as per DW's site.
But the coins that were graded -- but not with FAIRMONT on the label -- were hundreds of thousands, which would take alot of time to auction off (these too were wholesaled, as I understand from DW site and posts here).
Tens of thousands were not graded at all and obviously didn't have a holder to have or not have "FAIRMONT" on it. I guess these were also given to distributors to sell as they are mostly damaged or heavily worn and are only worth their gold content for the most part.
Comments
I believe @RYK owned that coin. I remember it but don’t recall owning it personally.
Latin American Collection
Shades of 1903-O dollars (sorta.) I've enjoyed this discussion -- and grateful that the only gold coins I have are strictly common dates!
.
I have heard that the origin is Argentina, not Venezuela. The bank that owned them was considering sending them all to the smelter, until someone suggested that they should consider the potential collector value. I have seen two Fairmont branch-mint Classic-Head $5 Half Eagles that have "wheel marks" on them from when a rubber wheel from a modern counting machine did a burn-out across the face.
.
Dirty gold?
THKS!
Louisiana Purchase by the US from France. Seward’s Folly was the US purchasing Alaska from Russia.
Instances of Uncle Sam growing the geographical size of the USA by purchase and sale.
Isn't that a POSITIVE, Peak ? Some have commented that the Fairmont coins, even if not the highest quality, have an authentic, non-altered surface look.....REAL gold...whatever that means.
BTW, Part 7 is now availabe at the DW blog. If you're like Chevy Chase and don't like Math
, the last few blog posts have involved some intricate formulas and calculations.
Don't forget to go back to read ANYTHING on Fairmont at the DW Blog (I think it starts in 2018 or 2019 but picks up in 2022/23)....Parts 1-4 of the Guest Blogger/Richard Radick series are also very instructive.
Peak, excellent point.
But that would only be for the graded & certified FAIRMONT COLLECTION coins....that may or may not be the case with the graded coins (without FAIRMONT on the label) and the raw, ungraded coins which comprises probably 95-97% of the hoard.
The Klunker Sale in Fall 2020 was thought to be possibly Fairmont coins, but commentaries since indicate probably not.
Of note....that sale had these scarce and semi-rare Saints in moderately high mint state: 1908-S Saint (4 coins), 1924-S Saint (8 coins), and the 1925-D Saint (1 coin).
Garrett, Winters, and others note the surge in overseas repatriated hoards coming in recent years. If we assume that 95-97% of the coins in Fairmont (and maybe other smaller collections) are basically just circulated bullion coins with minimal or no numismatic value...and that they were found about a decade ago (maybe accumulated in the 2014-2017 period).... then the near doubling in the price of gold probably is a reason why all this gold is coming out NOW as opposed to previous drops after the GFC (2008) or Euro Crisis (2011).
I talked to someone involved with the hoard. Fairmont was the hotel where the meeting happened to discuss selling the coins. Other firms are selling the coins also, but not using the Fairmont name. I was told there could be a million coins worth a billion dollars. The coins came from Venezuela.
I have heard the Venezuela rumor before - do you have anything to substantiate it?
I talked to one of the distributors of the coins.
Conquistadors?
One of the very best Fairmont coins took a massive loss at the recent HA sale.
Latin American Collection
True to the thread. Some of the Fairmont coins did not do too well the second time around. In particular, the $5 1864-S in 58 sold for $192k all in whereas it sold for $264k back in 4/22. That was the most significant drop in price that I saw. I followed closely the $5 1861-C. It's price was about 2k less that what is sold for back in 4/22.
Rare gold isn’t my specialty, but I imagine the market is pretty thin for that ‘64-s. Thin markets are volatile.
Assuming the players are the same, with the top bidder from the prior auction out, the under bidder is only competing with the second under bidder, who may have been willing to go much less far.
Also, the coin is no longer “fresh”, that’s important re: bidding psychology. And this second auction is against the backdrop of a continued flood of Fairmont coins, which introduces some risk another ‘64-s washes ashore.
Market context is different too. Short-term rates were still near zero in 4/22, and the 10y was 250bp lower. At 4.5%-5% interest on cash today, that’s a $10k/yr holding/opportunity cost for a $200k coin.
I expect that rewashed coins in thin markets that hammered only a few years ago will generally continue to fare worse.
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
.
And this just recently:
"New York Judge Loretta Preska has ordered Argentina to hand over information on the Central Bank’s gold reserves per a request filed by hedge fund Burford Capital in October.":
https://buenosairesherald.com/economics/ypf-case-argentina-ordered-to-reveal-location-of-central-bank-gold
Are the dots connecting ? ...
.
Both of these Fairmont coins sold for ~$41k two years ago.
I just saw Stacks has another batch selling in a February auction - I bet some people are happy they sold for numismatic value rather than melt (if those rumors/stories are correct).
What is the overall pct of CDN bid they (Fairmont material) realized after the juice? Do you think those sellers would have done better shopping them around the bourse at a show?
Don't forget that for all the negatives about Fairmont...the LOOK of the coins..."original gold surfaces"...is a definite plus.
Lots of great posts a few weeks back...I would only say that you have to take into account DEMAND for all the population totals being impacted by new supply. If it's a Top Pop or Near Top Pop coin....and the price is very high.... the overall demand for that coin could be strong but not at $50,000 for an AU-58 or MS-65 or whatever.
As an example, I think the 1927-D Saint market could handle a Mystery Hoard of a 4-5 AU-58's for folks who want to complete a Registry Set on a budget. But 4-5 new 1927-D's in the MS-66 or MS-67 range would definitely depress pricing at the top end for that rare series.
I could believe that. Record-keeping in many of these South and Central American countries/banks is very spotty, decades after everything went digital and computerized.
I'm just surprised that there are folks not aware that you could be losing a fortune by assuming coins or other ingots or bars are worth only bullion value. Many of those coins have sold for 10-50x their gold content. Smart decision not to just assume they had no numismatic value !
With the 1903-O's....you had such a rarity that folks like David Bowers had never owned one after a decade of being in the busines. Population estimates were all over the map but most assumed survivorship was single-digits (< 10 coins). Maybe low single-digits.
Then...you literally had tens of thousands of high mint state coins available. Went from an ultra-rarity to super-common in the span of weeks.
Wow...that is interesting. The size of the hoard doesn't surprise me, DW's blog got the direction correct they were just low on the total.
Another individual with family ties to Venezuela said the same thing. Isn't proof...but 2 independent sources coming to the same country as the source is interesting.
Not that I wish for this to happen, but it would be wild if say, 3,000 unc '27-D's came to light. As well as 10,000 1921's. I'm sure if that were to happen, somebody might try to let out a select few, and melt the remainder.
This DW article is 100% on Half-Eagles and Fairmont; other blog posts and articles have $5 gold weaved in.
https://raregoldcoins.com/blog/2025/1/9/fairmont-half-eagle-survival
For high-end coins, the market can be alot thinner as DW noted several times. The market can aborb a few dozen 4 or low 5-figure coins to the existing supply total...but a low-single digit pop census can be impacted greatly by 2 or 3 new additions.
Speculators also may have bid recklessly in the earlier auctions; you had collectors paying FMV most recently without any froth.
RR wrote a Final Wrap-Up post commemorating the end of the Fairmont auctions over at DW's site:
https://raregoldcoins.com/blog/2025/5/14/fairmont-gold-pieces-part-x-recapitulation
Thanks for the link. That was a wonderful article!
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
The market has seemed a tad soft for sometime IMO. However Scarce low pop coins, key dates sb doing well as far as coin there. Holiday weekends can be a mixed bag for consignors. If major show on a weekend many in coin club have scored good pickoffs from auctions.
Tks sharing results vs bid on those big ticket coins coming out the gate - those are really fantastic high demand coins.
Clearly a ton of work went into this! A fascinating read. Thanks for sharing @GoldFinger1969!
Thanks Mark...I found RR's analyses fascinataing, if at times the math and time series a bit over my head. I felt like I was back in calculus class my senior year of high school !
I find the secrecy regarding hoards -- even after the coins have all been sold -- to be one of the more frustrating points of this hobby.
You're quite welcome, happy to do my part.
Give RR and DW the credit, they did all the legwork. The time and effort on those time series staring in Part IV was really in-depth and time consuming. Very complicated functions and data crunching.
Hopefully the folks behind the Fairmont Collection and SBG will give us more details now that they no longer have to worry about impacting market prices.
But should they be concerned about legal liability? I would be angry if I bought into SB marketing hype in the early Fairmont auctions only to learn that SB had knowledge of significant Fairmont populations to be auctioned at future dates and did not disclose such. I'm sure they are well protected with legal language or maybe they did disclose that more Fairmont coins could/would come up in future auctions...just sayin! Fair disclosure I did not bid or buy any Fairmont coins.
While I can certainly understand why potential buyers would prefer such, I can’t see where sellers have any legal obligation to disclose how many coins are in a collection or accumulation that they will be selling.
It would be an entirely different matter if, prior to selling, the sellers were to make a representation regarding the specific quantity of coins to be sold, buyers relied upon that representation and it turned out to be false.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Like Mark said, only if the seller made guarantees about limited supply would they have any liability. And I can't see them even giving a verbal, off-the-cuff general assurance there.
We know more active bidders stepped away because they didn't know what was coming in terms of supply.
Ironically, the biggest problem wasn't "affordable gold" where large volumes could hit and greatly expand the population (demand often increased to meet the supply as DW & RR noted)...but those very low-single digit high-5 figure or 6-figure coins that suddenly had 2 or 3 new members -- and no new bidders.
Those could fall 30% or more in price.
@GoldFinger1969
No disagreement , but still a bummer to have paid "top dollar" for the early auction/auctions Fairmont coins, only to have meaningful population increases bring down values.
@MFeld "While I can certainly understand why potential buyers would prefer such, I can’t see where sellers have any legal obligation to disclose how many coins are in a collection or accumulation that they will be selling.
It would be an entirely different matter if, prior to selling, the sellers were to make a representation regarding the specific quantity of coins to be sold, buyers relied upon that representation and it turned out to be false."
Mark, trying to throw me off with logic! LOL. I happen to agree!
JW, did you get hit with subsqequent Fairmont sales/auctions ?
Agree about paying up early. Also, prices were higher in the early years of Covid because this was during the entire NFT craze and folks bid up collectibles and it spilled over into coins. Lots of coins appear to have peaked in price in 2021-22.
@GoldFinger1969 "JW, did you get hit with subsqequent Fairmont sales/auctions ?"
Nope, fortunately I was working on a Saint date set during this timeframe and didn't see anything in the Fairmont offering that fit my requirements, although from viewing the DW article it seems like Saints were barely impacted unlike the LIBs. I did pick up a nice 1923D PCGS 66+ CAC from SB last year, but so far the value has held up. 8 down and 10 dates to go, excluding 1921 and murder's row 1929-1932, which at this time is not in my budget, although I'm still riding my hopes on crypto to make my killing.
Yeah, I haven't seen any analyses on the Forums or at DW's site on Fairmont Saints. If you use the total estimated Double Eagle estimate from RR, it was about 90,000 Liberty Heads and just over 60,000 Saints. But if you assume that the "collection" was based on the East Coast of the U.S. about 1932 it stands to reason that the Saint population would mostly be Philly Mint 1920's from earlier in the decade (which circulated and/or came back from Europe later in the decade). Those are commons for the most part but I know the SB auctions had some nice Saints in more scarce years/mints and in nice grades.
I believe the certified "pedigreed" Fairmonts out of the 8,300 total graded gold coins/DE's......about 2,250 Liberty Head DEs but only about 270 Saints.
Yes, my 1923-D PCGS 66 that I bought at FUN 2020 seems to be doing OK. Bigger rise in gold since I bought mine (about a double). If gold hits $4,000 then we both might be seeing the premiums fade, me more so.
Actually, if the number of Mint State Gems or Super Gems were nil or very limited, you could have a repeat of the 1857-S DE Liberty and SSCA situation....where the high end DID go down a bit (increased supply) but even with more supply at lower grades prices WENT UP because interest SKYROCKETED because of all the publicity and folks wanted a shipwreck coin, a piece of American history, an affordable 1857-S suddenly available, etc. etc. etc.
Cougar, are you talking about the coins that were NOT the certified and pedigreed ones ? The certified (graded) and pedigreed (FAIRMONT on the label) coins numbered about 8,300....and approximatly 80% were sold at auctions but about 1,500 coins were NOT sold and have been given to dealers/distributors to market as per DW's site.
But the coins that were graded -- but not with FAIRMONT on the label -- were hundreds of thousands, which would take alot of time to auction off (these too were wholesaled, as I understand from DW site and posts here).
Tens of thousands were not graded at all and obviously didn't have a holder to have or not have "FAIRMONT" on it. I guess these were also given to distributors to sell as they are mostly damaged or heavily worn and are only worth their gold content for the most part.