Bitcoin Target Price

For sure, the cryptos have been on the move. I wonder if the risk/reward ratio of cryptos is being tracked, compared to other asset classes...

Might break ATH momentarily!

Dunno what's going on but the shiba inu i bought a while ago has been bonkers the past week.

nice BTC or ETH "sell, then buy" spread in today's action. Get ready for the next leg up.

Dencun upgrade for Ethereum scheduled for next week.

@stevek said:
Bitcoin going to Pluto?

Probably. But if not hodling a little bit already, it could be really painful by the time it gets to Uranus.

The amount of $ going into the bitcoin EFTs is pretty substantial, and it appears that the % of the total mintage of bitcoins owned by the ETFs is only going to increase. With the very limited supply of available bitcoin it doesn't seem farfetched that the value could increase significantly.

Bitcoin market cap surpasses that of silver:

Added during the red and cashed out for some real $$$. Was waiting for the bubble to pop to buy back in but in the short term certainly missed a good runup. As always time will tell. RGDS!

W

@derryb said:
Bitcoin market cap surpasses that of silver:

What happens when/if Bitcoin surpasses gold? It sounds crazy until you realize it is more likely than most people think. I'm not even a believer in BTC long term, just a hodler. If btc gets 10x gain to $750k, what does that mean for gold?

In the past, I've always basically been able to figure out why something, could be stock, gold, etc, went up or down after the day was over. I mean hindsight is 100% accurate, right?

However with this crypto, even after the day is over, I still have no idea why it went up or down. 🤷‍♂️

Sort of like flipping coins, and trying to figure out why a coin landed heads or tails. 😆

I'm hoping prices will tank so I can buy back in. Recently traded in some of my previous profits for the physical Au. RGDS!

Tulips are so pretty aren't they? May get even prettier. 🤔

did ya catch the recent monster dip? Went down as low as $3069 from a high of $4041 a week ago. The FED taketh and the FED giveth. BTC ETFs saw a record outflow 3/16-17, looks like those sellers have decided to jump back in.

@derryb said:
did ya catch the recent monster dip?

I bought some crypto yesterday morning before FOMC release and JPow press conference. I think I bought at the local bottom. Up almost 20% in the last 24 hours on my purchase. Crypto is ridiculous.

Bitcoin ETFs now hold nearly 4% of all bitcoin — and they’re not slowing down

"The US government is another major holder, believed to be controlling up to 215,000 BTC ($13.23 billion), or 1.1% of bitcoin’s circulating supply, per BitcoinTreasuries. Authorities seized the coins as part of a variety of criminal cases, including ones tied to Silk Road and the Bitfinex hack from 2016."

This asset class (Ethereum and Bitcoin) is the most conflicted I've been on an "investment." It doesn't seem implausible to have bitcoin go up considerable, but it also doesn't seen implausible to have it tank. If it continues to gain traction for more and more mainstream investors and funds the price just has to more up significantly. There is a very limited supply and it appears that many are held in strong hands reducing the float. If the inflows to the EFTs continues, at even a very reduced rate, there just isn't the supply to feed them.

FWIW:

...
“Dips in #Bitcoin keep on getting shorter and shorter. Meanwhile, rallies are lasting longer and moving quicker,” said analysts for The Kobeissi Letter. “This is a textbook sign that shorts are being squeezed as we hit fresh all-time high territory.”

Because of this, the analysts warned that Bitcoin may be setting up for a short squeeze.

“Currently, the gap between institutional longs and hedge fund shorts is at a record high,” they said. “While hedge funds > hold nearly 15,000 in net short contracts, institutions hold nearly 20,000 in net longs.”
...
Based on analysis from crypto market intelligence firm CryptoQuant, the pressure on shorts is likely to continue moving forward as the Bitcoin market continues to move closer to a liquidity crisis.

“Bitcoin demand has soared to unprecedented levels this year. We estimate monthly Bitcoin demand has increased from 40K Bitcoin at the start of 2024 to 213K Bitcoin as of the time of publishing,” the firm said in its latest Weekly Crypto Report. “An important factor behind this demand growth is ETF buying, but as of late other large investors have also increased their Bitcoin allocation.”

“On the supply side of the equation, the total Bitcoin readily available for selling continues to decline,” they noted. “The total ‘visible’ amount of Bitcoin at key entities stands at 2.7 million Bitcoin, down from an all-time high of 3.5 million Bitcoin in March 2020.”

“Record Bitcoin demand paired with declining sell-side liquidity has resulted in the liquid inventory of Bitcoin plunging to its lowest ever in terms of months of demand,” the report said. “We estimate that the present Bitcoin sell-side liquidity inventory is only enough to cover the current rate of demand growth for six to twelve months. A declining liquid inventory would support higher prices.”

There is even less liquidity available when exchanges outside of the U.S. are excluded from the calculation.

“The Bitcoin liquid inventory drops to six months of demand if we exclude the Bitcoin on exchanges outside the US,” the report said. “We exclude these exchanges considering that US spot Bitcoin ETFs will only source Bitcoin from US entities.”

According to CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju, sell-side liquidity is now “much lower” than it has been historically relative to demand. ...

https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-03-27/bitcoin-price-dips-after-coinbase-staking-lawsuit-decision-analyst-warn

@RobM said:

What happens when/if Bitcoin surpasses gold? It sounds crazy until you realize it is more likely than most people >think. I'm not even a believer in BTC long term, just a hodler. If btc gets 10x gain to $750k, what does that mean for >gold?

Who knows....but as the market value of BTC goes up, the amount of new buying it takes to move it increases exponentially.

I'm reading that Bitcoin gains are treated as capital gains. Does anyone here have experience with how to keep track of the tax liabilities from transacting in Bitcoin? As I understand it, every selling transaction has a separate tax line and possibly a separate basis for the Bitcoin that is sold/or spent.

Are private wallets traceable by the IRS, or only those wallets that are associated with an exchange?

It seems clear that buying & selling of Bitcoin requires alot of recordkeeping, even for very minor transactions like buying a pizza. If that's the case, it seems at least as complicated and more somewhat more cumbersome than simply converting gold into fiat before spending it.

A few of the platforms provide a year end summary to you.

I expect that a platform would be able to provide a yearend summary, but I'm also somewhat apprehensive about putting any real money into an exchange or and ETF, for various reasons including the potential for hacking, fraud, tracking, and privacy in general.

My understanding from the Bitcoin website is that a hardware wallet or a paper wallet is most secure and suitable for larger long term sums, but that a wallet on an exchange is much more convenient for transactions.

My concern is mainly about keeping any substantial amount of money securely completely out of the system and not subject to anyone else's control. That was the original intent of Bitcoin, and it has morphed.

@Wingsrule said:
Cryptos getting hammered, -10% or so in the last hour

Well, I guess the saying must be true, "If you don't hold it, you don't own it." RGDS!

P.S. I got some $$$$ burning a hole in the ole pocket. Another -30/40% drop on the make-believe digital digits and I'm back in. THKS!

Opportunity knocks once again.

That is why you don't really own anything with SLV.

Well, on the bright side of things, you actually own the same thing that's been promised to 10 other people at the same time.