But wow, that was another great contrarian indicator from @cohodk .
If after a 35% decline in the previous 2 weeks you dont think that cartoon was funny then......
What's really going to be funny is in 10 years when the bitcoin chart looks like the silver chart of the last decade.
When you originally posted the "HA-ha!" (on June 19) Bitcoin had recently declined to a little over $20,000.
Since then it has increased to a little over $24,000. That is why it was a nearly perfect contrarian indicator.
Just like any other speculative endeavor, timing when to get in & out, is the key. Today it's around $24K. Let's see what it's at on September 13th. If I were to place a wager, I'd put my $$$ on down.
I have always held a 5+ year horizon. If you follow BTC or any crypto day to day you will 100% lose money. Literally buy low when its down 70/90% wait 18/24 months sell for 10-20x profits. Its literally that easy.
Judging from derryb's posts, he would strongly disagree with you. Personally, I'm not in crypto, nor would I even consider dabling in it. I'd prefer to loose or win at a casino, I think their odds, either way, are better than cryptos
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
When you originally posted the "HA-ha!" (on June 19) Bitcoin had recently declined to a little over $20,000.
Since then it has increased to a little over $24,000. That is why it was a nearly perfect contrarian indicator.
No...I originally posted on May 12. You can also see my comment on Feb 21 for further context.
You dont even know what contrairian means.
You posted it on June 19 as an "original" post (not as part of a quote from a previous post).
Nobody follows the financial puppet masters' party line as closely as you do.
That makes you the best contrarian indicator.
When you originally posted the "HA-ha!" (on June 19) Bitcoin had recently declined to a little over $20,000.
Since then it has increased to a little over $24,000. That is why it was a nearly perfect contrarian indicator.
No...I originally posted on May 12. You can also see my comment on Feb 21 for further context.
You dont even know what contrairian means.
And a week after your attempted belittement, it drops 15%. THAT is contrarian. Thanks for the heads up. $$$$$🙂🙂🙂🙂🙂
I love this place!!
Before you get all excited about an "oh I got you now" moment, it probably bounces a little from here as it's on the uptrend line from the June low.
When you originally posted the "HA-ha!" (on June 19) Bitcoin had recently declined to a little over $20,000.
Since then it has increased to a little over $24,000. That is why it was a nearly perfect contrarian indicator.
No...I originally posted on May 12. You can also see my comment on Feb 21 for further context.
You dont even know what contrairian means.
And a week after your attempted belittement, it drops 15%. THAT is contrarian. Thanks for the heads up. $$$$$🙂🙂🙂🙂🙂
I love this place!!
Before you get all excited about an "oh I got you now" moment, it probably bounces a little from here as it's on the uptrend line from the June low.
Nobody cares "who got who", or if "anybody got somebody".
But the forum does reflect back what you project into it.
For the 1st time I have noticed, the CNBC hosts today started questioning the premise of cryptocurrencies and why they and their network routinely give them positive exposure and encourage advertisers. One guest was pointing out that up that up to 125:1 leverage had been permitted offshore on bitcoin. She also stated that there is no way any leverage should ever have been allowed.
Lost nearly 3/4 of its value in one year. That’s a few pegs higher than volatile
It didn't and doesn't contine to go strait down. My only choice, ETH, offers many opportunities to take profits at a temporary high before it goes back down (lower) where the next buying opportunity can be found. Key is staying on top of the daily moves. I'm retired and have nothing else to do except monitor and day trade investments, sell on ebay and antagonize gutterboy.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
@jmski52 said: Lost nearly 3/4 of its value in one year. That’s a few pegs higher than volatile
Yep, that means you have to be correct in 3 out of 4 trades to break even, and not too infrequently you get wiped out. The paradigm has shifted, imo.
Agree. The easy money has all been made. I'm actually working with the easy money, having pulled my investment to build a new home. The hard money is there but requires more vigilance and has greater risk. For me worst case scenario it goes to zero and I lose all the profits.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Somehow, LTC has managed to buck the recent crypto downtrend. Whereas BTC is just a few percent off very recent lows, LTC is up 70% since June. Interesting because just about all other established alt coins are at or near their recent lows.
“Silvergate’s 10-K also states that ‘Deposits from digital currency exchanges represent approximately 58.0% of the Bank’s overall deposits and are held by approximately 94 exchanges .We know of four FDIC-insured banks whose share prices have already been hit: Silvergate Bank, Customers Bank, Signature Bank and Metropolitan Bank. "
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
"Everyone who files Form 1040, Form 1040-SR or Form 1040-NR must check one box, answering either "Yes" or "No" to the digital asset question. The question must be answered by all taxpayers, not just those who engaged in a transaction involving digital assets in 2022."
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
“Silvergate’s 10-K also states that ‘Deposits from digital currency exchanges represent approximately 58.0% of the >Bank’s overall deposits and are held by approximately 94 exchanges .We know of four FDIC-insured banks whose >share prices have already been hit: Silvergate Bank, Customers Bank, Signature Bank and Metropolitan Bank. "
Silvergate delaying their 10-K, didn't pay their Pfd dividend (only $2 MM)...and saying they may not be a "going concern."
"Part of the industry's positive view on bitcoin right now actually stems from how the well the asset has performed during the banking turmoil sparked by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Bitcoin has rallied nearly 70% so far this year."
Why has gold not mirrored BTC's 70% 2023 gain? Looks like Bitcoin is stealing some of gold's luster as a dollar alternative in times of financial/banking crisis?
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
I think it is easier to explain BTC going up 70% simply because it fell 75% from its high. So it's still more than 50% off the ATH. Gold went down 10-15%, so why would anyone expect it to have gone up 70% from recent lows (which would be $3K/oz or so). I agree that interest, in particular from millenials might steal a little of gold's luster, but it may be more about BTC stealing the electrons from the rest of the cryptocurrency space. Most cryptos crashed harder than BTC, and have not recovered nearly as well. One of the outliers (wrt bouncing off lows) is LTC, but that may largely be due to upcoming halving.
@derryb said:
Why has gold not mirrored BTC's 70% 2023 gain? Looks like Bitcoin is stealing some of gold's luster as a dollar alternative in times of financial/banking crisis?
BitCoin gets all the daytraders, Meme crowd, and speculators. They can have the impact of a few large institutions because you are talking about hundreds of thousands of buyers with $500 to $500,000 in buying power for the most part.
@derryb said:
Why has gold not mirrored BTC's 70% 2023 gain? Looks like Bitcoin is stealing some of gold's luster as a dollar alternative in times of financial/banking crisis?
Gold has a different demographic buyer. It also has much stronger hodlersof the stuff.
The ETFs aren't a source of supply, only demand. They have to hold the metal which means going long gold. They can't net short the metal. SEC rules prohibit a net short position.
The ETFs aren't a source of supply, only demand. They have to hold the metal which means going long gold. They can't net short the metal. SEC rules prohibit a net short position.
Only an ETN can short.
.
The ETF can lease the metal to another entity and that entity can sell it (short).
The ETFs aren't a source of supply, only demand. They have to hold the metal which means going long gold. They can't net short the metal. SEC rules prohibit a net short position.
Yet SLV has been shown to have multiple claims on it's silver (held by JPM. LOL)
Gonna be an interesting end to silver musical chairs. I already have my seat.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
I have never participated in any crypto-currency in any fashion.
Upon cursory examination, my general observation is this:
BitCoin was supposed to solve all the problems of a transactional currency. Anybody anywhere could seamlessly send BitCoin to another party without the need of a bank or other intermediary. BitCoin is supposedly not controlled by any entity and it is strictly limited in quantity.
The need for an ETF is perplexing. If BitCoin is optimal for transactions, why would someone buy an ETF of it and pay fees when they could just as easily buy the BitCoin itself and not pay fees ? Something doesn't smell right here.
My guess is that the ETF exists so that entities can lease and borrow BitCoin, and someone can potentially earn some interest on it. And, of course, the EFT was created so that the management of the ETF can collect fees.
Some years ago my day job was computer programming. The BitCoin environment runs on software. I can say from experience that software can contain hidden functions that are not readily apparent. Who controls this BitCoin software ? Who decides what programmers work on it ? What happens when it needs to be updated to function properly on a new version of the prevailing operating system (such as a new version of MS Windows, for example) ? What is to stop a programmer from inserting their own little "tricks" into the BitCoin operations ?
@dcarr said "I have never participated in any crypto-currency in any fashion." ... "The need for an ETF is perplexing. If BitCoin is optimal for transactions, why would someone buy an ETF of it and pay fees when they could just as easily buy the BitCoin itself and not pay fees ? Something doesn't smell right here."
I also have never owned crypto-currency and for several reasons never expect to.
Regarding the emergence of bitcoin ETFs, is it really a sign of nefarious intent? Perhaps I'm naive, but for the most part, I assume that Blackrock and others view it simply as another way to accumulate and earn fees on assets under management. Some issuers may view it also as promoting and getting hands-on experience in this rapidly evolving area. Regarding why an individual might want to buy the ETF, I think you almost answer your own question when you prefaced "Bitcoin is optimal for transactions" with "If". Clearly Bitcoin is not optimal for transactions and there are risks associated with ownership beyond just fluctuation in price. A buyer from a Blackrock ETF retains the price fluctuation risk and pays a fee, but in return for the fee has reduced the hassle and other risks of Bitcoin ownership.
Many ways to play cryptos besides the "wallet" thing. Heck, even Paypal offers investments into a limited number of them. Another simple play is through RobinHood.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
@derryb said:
Yet SLV has been shown to have multiple claims on it's silver (held by JPM. LOL)
Gonna be an interesting end to silver musical chairs. I already have my seat.
If this were true it would have already moved. Most of the "multiple claims" nonsense are totally false. The people saying this don't even know the difference between JPM's custodial and portfolio positions.
When Gamestop had a huge short position and "multiple claims" it moved within 6 months. Silver has been waiting for years.
@dcarr said:
The ETF can lease the metal to another entity and that entity can sell it (short).
So can whoever owned it BEFORE the ETF took possession. But that assumes ETFs engage in this activity.
Gold ETFs do not lease out gold because they are supposed to track the gold commodity and not profit from other forces. They CAN -- but they don't.
In the financial realm, if some entity can make money, and it is not illegal, they will do so.
And they will not always tell you that they are doing it.
@dcarr said:
In the financial realm, if some entity can make money, and it is not illegal, they will do so.
And they will not always tell you that they are doing it.
No, they can NOT. Their prospectus and mandates state they can only hold physical gold (IAU, GLD).
Other gold ETFs which do NOT track bullion can buy stocks, lease gold, or short.
@dcarr said:
In the financial realm, if some entity can make money, and it is not illegal, they will do so.
And they will not always tell you that they are doing it.
No, they can NOT. Their prospectus and mandates state they can only hold physical gold (IAU, GLD).
Other gold ETFs which do NOT track bullion can buy stocks, lease gold, or short.
But not the bullion ETFs.
.
Does their prospectus specifically prohibit the leasing out of gold ?
What about the custodian(s) that the EFT hires to handle the physical metal ?
Comments
Judging from derryb's posts, he would strongly disagree with you. Personally, I'm not in crypto, nor would I even consider dabling in it. I'd prefer to loose or win at a casino, I think their odds, either way, are better than cryptos
You posted it on June 19 as an "original" post (not as part of a quote from a previous post).
Nobody follows the financial puppet masters' party line as closely as you do.
That makes you the best contrarian indicator.
And a week after your attempted belittement, it drops 15%. THAT is contrarian. Thanks for the heads up. $$$$$🙂🙂🙂🙂🙂
I love this place!!
Before you get all excited about an "oh I got you now" moment, it probably bounces a little from here as it's on the uptrend line from the June low.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Nobody cares "who got who", or if "anybody got somebody".
But the forum does reflect back what you project into it.
Yup. Been saying that for years also.
And BTW....YOU care. Reflect.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
For the 1st time I have noticed, the CNBC hosts today started questioning the premise of cryptocurrencies and why they and their network routinely give them positive exposure and encourage advertisers. One guest was pointing out that up that up to 125:1 leverage had been permitted offshore on bitcoin. She also stated that there is no way any leverage should ever have been allowed.
You in?
LOL
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I'm in. I like the volitility.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
When does El Salvador ask for an IMF bailout?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Lost nearly 3/4 of its value in one year. That’s a few pegs higher than volatile
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
Lost nearly 3/4 of its value in one year. That’s a few pegs higher than volatile
Yep, that means you have to be correct in 3 out of 4 trades to break even, and not too infrequently you get wiped out. The paradigm has shifted, imo.
I knew it would happen.
It didn't and doesn't contine to go strait down. My only choice, ETH, offers many opportunities to take profits at a temporary high before it goes back down (lower) where the next buying opportunity can be found. Key is staying on top of the daily moves. I'm retired and have nothing else to do except monitor and day trade investments, sell on ebay and antagonize gutterboy.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Agree. The easy money has all been made. I'm actually working with the easy money, having pulled my investment to build a new home. The hard money is there but requires more vigilance and has greater risk. For me worst case scenario it goes to zero and I lose all the profits.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
new target price:
zero
Somehow, LTC has managed to buck the recent crypto downtrend. Whereas BTC is just a few percent off very recent lows, LTC is up 70% since June. Interesting because just about all other established alt coins are at or near their recent lows.
has the fallout from the FTX blowup presented a BTC/ETH buying opportunity?
Also, looks like a few FDIC insured banks had exposure to FTX.
“Silvergate’s 10-K also states that ‘Deposits from digital currency exchanges represent approximately 58.0% of the Bank’s overall deposits and are held by approximately 94 exchanges .We know of four FDIC-insured banks whose share prices have already been hit: Silvergate Bank, Customers Bank, Signature Bank and Metropolitan Bank. "
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Higher? Lulz!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Appears to be a major short squeeze in some cryptos the past several days.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
lot of crypto gains over the past two weeks.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
IRS updates/clarifies reporting requirements for digital assets
"Everyone who files Form 1040, Form 1040-SR or Form 1040-NR must check one box, answering either "Yes" or "No" to the digital asset question. The question must be answered by all taxpayers, not just those who engaged in a transaction involving digital assets in 2022."
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
I got F'd shorting Coinbase COIN yesterday during a short squeeze. I learned my lesson, again.
Silvergate delaying their 10-K, didn't pay their Pfd dividend (only $2 MM)...and saying they may not be a "going concern."
The Kiss Of Death.
Insiders say the cryptocurrency could test new highs this year.
"Part of the industry's positive view on bitcoin right now actually stems from how the well the asset has performed during the banking turmoil sparked by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Bitcoin has rallied nearly 70% so far this year."
Why has gold not mirrored BTC's 70% 2023 gain? Looks like Bitcoin is stealing some of gold's luster as a dollar alternative in times of financial/banking crisis?
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
I think it is easier to explain BTC going up 70% simply because it fell 75% from its high. So it's still more than 50% off the ATH. Gold went down 10-15%, so why would anyone expect it to have gone up 70% from recent lows (which would be $3K/oz or so). I agree that interest, in particular from millenials might steal a little of gold's luster, but it may be more about BTC stealing the electrons from the rest of the cryptocurrency space. Most cryptos crashed harder than BTC, and have not recovered nearly as well. One of the outliers (wrt bouncing off lows) is LTC, but that may largely be due to upcoming halving.
@RobM "I think it is easier to explain BTC going up 70% simply because it fell 75% from its high."
Good one.
BitCoin gets all the daytraders, Meme crowd, and speculators. They can have the impact of a few large institutions because you are talking about hundreds of thousands of buyers with $500 to $500,000 in buying power for the most part.
Gold has a different demographic buyer. It also has much stronger hodlersof the stuff.
Back above $40K.135% on the year. Sure beat that gutter investment.
THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
$44K+ LULZ! Easier than takin cadie from a babie. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
ETFs for gold and silver were bad for spot prices. If Blackrock succeeds with the BTC ETF it will be interesting to see what happens.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
0
Who said the ETFs were bad for PMs ? It's another source of demand.....net-net, it has to be a positive if they have stocks greater than zero ounces.
The BTC ETF is largely responsible for the doubling in BitCoin this year.
Another source of supply
The anticipation/hope is responsible.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
The ETFs aren't a source of supply, only demand. They have to hold the metal which means going long gold. They can't net short the metal. SEC rules prohibit a net short position.
Only an ETN can short.
.> @GoldFinger1969 said:
.
The ETF can lease the metal to another entity and that entity can sell it (short).
.
Yet SLV has been shown to have multiple claims on it's silver (held by JPM. LOL)
Gonna be an interesting end to silver musical chairs. I already have my seat.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
I have never participated in any crypto-currency in any fashion.
Upon cursory examination, my general observation is this:
BitCoin was supposed to solve all the problems of a transactional currency. Anybody anywhere could seamlessly send BitCoin to another party without the need of a bank or other intermediary. BitCoin is supposedly not controlled by any entity and it is strictly limited in quantity.
The need for an ETF is perplexing. If BitCoin is optimal for transactions, why would someone buy an ETF of it and pay fees when they could just as easily buy the BitCoin itself and not pay fees ? Something doesn't smell right here.
My guess is that the ETF exists so that entities can lease and borrow BitCoin, and someone can potentially earn some interest on it. And, of course, the EFT was created so that the management of the ETF can collect fees.
Some years ago my day job was computer programming. The BitCoin environment runs on software. I can say from experience that software can contain hidden functions that are not readily apparent. Who controls this BitCoin software ? Who decides what programmers work on it ? What happens when it needs to be updated to function properly on a new version of the prevailing operating system (such as a new version of MS Windows, for example) ? What is to stop a programmer from inserting their own little "tricks" into the BitCoin operations ?
@dcarr said "I have never participated in any crypto-currency in any fashion." ... "The need for an ETF is perplexing. If BitCoin is optimal for transactions, why would someone buy an ETF of it and pay fees when they could just as easily buy the BitCoin itself and not pay fees ? Something doesn't smell right here."
I also have never owned crypto-currency and for several reasons never expect to.
Regarding the emergence of bitcoin ETFs, is it really a sign of nefarious intent? Perhaps I'm naive, but for the most part, I assume that Blackrock and others view it simply as another way to accumulate and earn fees on assets under management. Some issuers may view it also as promoting and getting hands-on experience in this rapidly evolving area. Regarding why an individual might want to buy the ETF, I think you almost answer your own question when you prefaced "Bitcoin is optimal for transactions" with "If". Clearly Bitcoin is not optimal for transactions and there are risks associated with ownership beyond just fluctuation in price. A buyer from a Blackrock ETF retains the price fluctuation risk and pays a fee, but in return for the fee has reduced the hassle and other risks of Bitcoin ownership.
Many ways to play cryptos besides the "wallet" thing. Heck, even Paypal offers investments into a limited number of them. Another simple play is through RobinHood.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
BTC Target Price? North. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
So can whoever owned it BEFORE the ETF took possession. But that assumes ETFs engage in this activity.
Gold ETFs do not lease out gold because they are supposed to track the gold commodity and not profit from other forces. They CAN -- but they don't.
If this were true it would have already moved. Most of the "multiple claims" nonsense are totally false. The people saying this don't even know the difference between JPM's custodial and portfolio positions.
When Gamestop had a huge short position and "multiple claims" it moved within 6 months. Silver has been waiting for years.
It 'aint happening.
In the financial realm, if some entity can make money, and it is not illegal, they will do so.
And they will not always tell you that they are doing it.
No, they can NOT. Their prospectus and mandates state they can only hold physical gold (IAU, GLD).
Other gold ETFs which do NOT track bullion can buy stocks, lease gold, or short.
But not the bullion ETFs.
.
Does their prospectus specifically prohibit the leasing out of gold ?
What about the custodian(s) that the EFT hires to handle the physical metal ?
.
Yes. They are a proxy for the bullion, less the annual expense charge. It's non-negotiable.
They can't touch it. The gold is marked-to-market hourly.
.
The Custodians literally have to touch the gold.
.
Semantics aside, the gold is stored and not touched by the ETF or the sponsor.
.
One would hope ...
.
The same can't be said for the silver ETFs. With the exception of the Sprott ETF, an ounce of silver can likely be claimed by many parties.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong