@jmski52 said:
For sure, the cryptos have been on the move. I wonder if the risk/reward ratio of cryptos is being tracked, compared to other asset classes...
I would say the greatest risk/reward exists with cash in the bank. I'm not saying you stand to lose it. I am saying that it's purchasing power is being eroded.
Every dollar you have had in the bank since 2000 is now worth 55 cents. Coho thinks that's funny, do you?
I sold off the shiba I bought three years ago just as the price started to drop again. I managed to get back what I originally spent. I would have been better off putting that money in a dividend paying stock. Done with the crypto nonsense.
Watch the mirror count the lines The battle scars of all the good times
Probably. But if not hodling a little bit already, it could be really painful by the time it gets to Uranus.
One thing about trying to predict herd mentality, those who try usually go broke doing it. That being said, when you're right, the rewards can be substantial.
The only thing certain right now is that Bitcoin is in a herd mentality mode. Now which way will the herd go? 🤔
The amount of $ going into the bitcoin EFTs is pretty substantial, and it appears that the % of the total mintage of bitcoins owned by the ETFs is only going to increase. With the very limited supply of available bitcoin it doesn't seem farfetched that the value could increase significantly.
@nags said:
The amount of $ going into the bitcoin EFTs is pretty substantial, and it appears that the % of the total mintage of bitcoins owned by the ETFs is only going to increase. With the very limited supply of available bitcoin it doesn't seem farfetched that the value could increase significantly.
I recall a few predictions awhile back of Bitcoin going over 100k.
Added during the red and cashed out for some real $$$. Was waiting for the bubble to pop to buy back in but in the short term certainly missed a good runup. As always time will tell. RGDS!
@derryb said:
Bitcoin market cap surpasses that of silver:
What happens when/if Bitcoin surpasses gold? It sounds crazy until you realize it is more likely than most people think. I'm not even a believer in BTC long term, just a hodler. If btc gets 10x gain to $750k, what does that mean for gold?
In the past, I've always basically been able to figure out why something, could be stock, gold, etc, went up or down after the day was over. I mean hindsight is 100% accurate, right?
However with this crypto, even after the day is over, I still have no idea why it went up or down. 🤷♂️
Sort of like flipping coins, and trying to figure out why a coin landed heads or tails. 😆
Appears the current BTC ETFs and coming soon ETH ETFs are bringing in many institutional investors who in the past had only negative opinions on cryptos. Train is leaving the station. Current dip may be the last for a while.
@stevek said:
Tulips are so pretty aren't they? May get even prettier. 🤔
Looks like the latest round of the crypto hype is quickly fading. Reminds me of that tiny bubbles song by the great Don Ho. Keep tanking, want to get in cheap before the next pump. THKS!
did ya catch the recent monster dip? Went down as low as $3069 from a high of $4041 a week ago. The FED taketh and the FED giveth. BTC ETFs saw a record outflow 3/16-17, looks like those sellers have decided to jump back in.
@derryb said:
did ya catch the recent monster dip?
I bought some crypto yesterday morning before FOMC release and JPow press conference. I think I bought at the local bottom. Up almost 20% in the last 24 hours on my purchase. Crypto is ridiculous.
@derryb said:
Bitcoin market cap surpasses that of silver:
What happens when/if Bitcoin surpasses gold? It sounds crazy until you realize it is more likely than most people think. I'm not even a believer in BTC long term, just a hodler. If btc gets 10x gain to $750k, what does that mean for gold?
Maybe not much? Fake paper gold surpassed real, actual gold a long time ago and people and central banks still hoard it.
I'm not so sure we will ever see a massive downtrend in gold regardless of what other asset classes do. Maybe a continued slower rise but I don't think anything will ever actually replace it.
I try not to think about it like this, but gold and silver would be going absolutely gangbusters were it not for new asset classes.
"The US government is another major holder, believed to be controlling up to 215,000 BTC ($13.23 billion), or 1.1% of bitcoin’s circulating supply, per BitcoinTreasuries. Authorities seized the coins as part of a variety of criminal cases, including ones tied to Silk Road and the Bitfinex hack from 2016."
"The US government is another major holder, believed to be controlling up to 215,000 BTC ($13.23 billion), or 1.1% of bitcoin’s circulating supply, per BitcoinTreasuries. Authorities seized the coins as part of a variety of criminal cases, including ones tied to Silk Road and the Bitfinex hack from 2016."
This asset class (Ethereum and Bitcoin) is the most conflicted I've been on an "investment." It doesn't seem implausible to have bitcoin go up considerable, but it also doesn't seen implausible to have it tank. If it continues to gain traction for more and more mainstream investors and funds the price just has to more up significantly. There is a very limited supply and it appears that many are held in strong hands reducing the float. If the inflows to the EFTs continues, at even a very reduced rate, there just isn't the supply to feed them.
...
“Dips in #Bitcoin keep on getting shorter and shorter. Meanwhile, rallies are lasting longer and moving quicker,” said analysts for The Kobeissi Letter. “This is a textbook sign that shorts are being squeezed as we hit fresh all-time high territory.”
Because of this, the analysts warned that Bitcoin may be setting up for a short squeeze.
“Currently, the gap between institutional longs and hedge fund shorts is at a record high,” they said. “While hedge funds > hold nearly 15,000 in net short contracts, institutions hold nearly 20,000 in net longs.”
...
Based on analysis from crypto market intelligence firm CryptoQuant, the pressure on shorts is likely to continue moving forward as the Bitcoin market continues to move closer to a liquidity crisis.
“Bitcoin demand has soared to unprecedented levels this year. We estimate monthly Bitcoin demand has increased from 40K Bitcoin at the start of 2024 to 213K Bitcoin as of the time of publishing,” the firm said in its latest Weekly Crypto Report. “An important factor behind this demand growth is ETF buying, but as of late other large investors have also increased their Bitcoin allocation.”
“On the supply side of the equation, the total Bitcoin readily available for selling continues to decline,” they noted. “The total ‘visible’ amount of Bitcoin at key entities stands at 2.7 million Bitcoin, down from an all-time high of 3.5 million Bitcoin in March 2020.”
“Record Bitcoin demand paired with declining sell-side liquidity has resulted in the liquid inventory of Bitcoin plunging to its lowest ever in terms of months of demand,” the report said. “We estimate that the present Bitcoin sell-side liquidity inventory is only enough to cover the current rate of demand growth for six to twelve months. A declining liquid inventory would support higher prices.”
There is even less liquidity available when exchanges outside of the U.S. are excluded from the calculation.
“The Bitcoin liquid inventory drops to six months of demand if we exclude the Bitcoin on exchanges outside the US,” the report said. “We exclude these exchanges considering that US spot Bitcoin ETFs will only source Bitcoin from US entities.”
According to CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju, sell-side liquidity is now “much lower” than it has been historically relative to demand. ...
What happens when/if Bitcoin surpasses gold? It sounds crazy until you realize it is more likely than most people >think. I'm not even a believer in BTC long term, just a hodler. If btc gets 10x gain to $750k, what does that mean for >gold?
Who knows....but as the market value of BTC goes up, the amount of new buying it takes to move it increases exponentially.
What happens when/if Bitcoin surpasses gold? It sounds crazy until you realize it is more likely than most people >think. I'm not even a believer in BTC long term, just a hodler. If btc gets 10x gain to $750k, what does that mean for >gold?
Who knows....but as the market value of BTC goes up, the amount of new buying it takes to move it increases exponentially.
I don't believe this is accurate. The current price is just the meeting of the bid and the ask. Low volume can easily cause volatility in either direction in commodities/securities.
Part of the argument for higher prices is that the supply is limited and if demand does continue to increase the price would have to rise.
I'm reading that Bitcoin gains are treated as capital gains. Does anyone here have experience with how to keep track of the tax liabilities from transacting in Bitcoin? As I understand it, every selling transaction has a separate tax line and possibly a separate basis for the Bitcoin that is sold/or spent.
Are private wallets traceable by the IRS, or only those wallets that are associated with an exchange?
It seems clear that buying & selling of Bitcoin requires alot of recordkeeping, even for very minor transactions like buying a pizza. If that's the case, it seems at least as complicated and more somewhat more cumbersome than simply converting gold into fiat before spending it.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
I'm reading that Bitcoin gains are treated as capital gains. Does anyone here have experience with how to keep track of the tax liabilities from transacting in Bitcoin?
I have no experience with private wallets, but when buying/selling cryptos on a platform (i.e. Robinhood) you treat them just as a stock on your tax return (capital gains). You need the same info at tax time as you would for a stock/ETF. A few of the platforms provide a year end summary to you.
A few of the platforms provide a year end summary to you.
I expect that a platform would be able to provide a yearend summary, but I'm also somewhat apprehensive about putting any real money into an exchange or and ETF, for various reasons including the potential for hacking, fraud, tracking, and privacy in general.
My understanding from the Bitcoin website is that a hardware wallet or a paper wallet is most secure and suitable for larger long term sums, but that a wallet on an exchange is much more convenient for transactions.
My concern is mainly about keeping any substantial amount of money securely completely out of the system and not subject to anyone else's control. That was the original intent of Bitcoin, and it has morphed.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
My concern is mainly about keeping any substantial amount of money securely completely out of the system and not subject to anyone else's control. That was the original intent of Bitcoin, and it has morphed.
No asset is safe from theft or fraud. Not even the gold you hold. Your cash in the bank is also subject to such a demise.
It all (and always) boils down to risk vs. reward.
Comments
For sure, the cryptos have been on the move. I wonder if the risk/reward ratio of cryptos is being tracked, compared to other asset classes...
I knew it would happen.
I would say the greatest risk/reward exists with cash in the bank. I'm not saying you stand to lose it. I am saying that it's purchasing power is being eroded.
Every dollar you have had in the bank since 2000 is now worth 55 cents. Coho thinks that's funny, do you?
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Might break ATH momentarily!
I recall the days when Bitcoin went over 1k, and i thought that was ridiculously high. 😆
Dunno what's going on but the shiba inu i bought a while ago has been bonkers the past week.
I sold off the shiba I bought three years ago just as the price started to drop again. I managed to get back what I originally spent. I would have been better off putting that money in a dividend paying stock. Done with the crypto nonsense.
The battle scars of all the good times
nice BTC or ETH "sell, then buy" spread in today's action. Get ready for the next leg up.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Next up leg underway:
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Dencun upgrade for Ethereum scheduled for next week.
Yelling at clouds on pmbug.com
Bitcoin going to Pluto?
Probably. But if not hodling a little bit already, it could be really painful by the time it gets to Uranus.
One thing about trying to predict herd mentality, those who try usually go broke doing it. That being said, when you're right, the rewards can be substantial.
The only thing certain right now is that Bitcoin is in a herd mentality mode. Now which way will the herd go? 🤔
The amount of $ going into the bitcoin EFTs is pretty substantial, and it appears that the % of the total mintage of bitcoins owned by the ETFs is only going to increase. With the very limited supply of available bitcoin it doesn't seem farfetched that the value could increase significantly.
I recall a few predictions awhile back of Bitcoin going over 100k.
Doesn't seem all that far fetched now. 😐
Bitcoin market cap surpasses that of silver:
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Great catching up on this read. I hope those who were into crypto added during the red years.
Added during the red and cashed out for some real $$$. Was waiting for the bubble to pop to buy back in but in the short term certainly missed a good runup. As always time will tell. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
"Bitcoin to $350,000? Bulls see current rally as just the beginning"
Just saw this headline on Yahoo finance. I wonder if there was a similar Dutch headline during the 1630's in regards to tulips?
W
What happens when/if Bitcoin surpasses gold? It sounds crazy until you realize it is more likely than most people think. I'm not even a believer in BTC long term, just a hodler. If btc gets 10x gain to $750k, what does that mean for gold?
Fantasy tokens took over the gutter. Crazy world. LOL!
P.S. Even crazier, I don't think its done yet. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
In the past, I've always basically been able to figure out why something, could be stock, gold, etc, went up or down after the day was over. I mean hindsight is 100% accurate, right?
However with this crypto, even after the day is over, I still have no idea why it went up or down. 🤷♂️
Sort of like flipping coins, and trying to figure out why a coin landed heads or tails. 😆
Yelling at clouds on pmbug.com
I'm hoping prices will tank so I can buy back in. Recently traded in some of my previous profits for the physical Au. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
From the analyst who predicted current BTC and ETH run ups:
ETH to $14k and BTC to $250k by year end 2025.
Appears the current BTC ETFs and coming soon ETH ETFs are bringing in many institutional investors who in the past had only negative opinions on cryptos. Train is leaving the station. Current dip may be the last for a while.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Tulips are so pretty aren't they? May get even prettier. 🤔
Looks like the latest round of the crypto hype is quickly fading. Reminds me of that tiny bubbles song by the great Don Ho. Keep tanking, want to get in cheap before the next pump. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
did ya catch the recent monster dip? Went down as low as $3069 from a high of $4041 a week ago. The FED taketh and the FED giveth. BTC ETFs saw a record outflow 3/16-17, looks like those sellers have decided to jump back in.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Personally, waiting for it to dip much, much lower. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
I bought some crypto yesterday morning before FOMC release and JPow press conference. I think I bought at the local bottom. Up almost 20% in the last 24 hours on my purchase. Crypto is ridiculous.
Yelling at clouds on pmbug.com
Maybe not much? Fake paper gold surpassed real, actual gold a long time ago and people and central banks still hoard it.
I'm not so sure we will ever see a massive downtrend in gold regardless of what other asset classes do. Maybe a continued slower rise but I don't think anything will ever actually replace it.
I try not to think about it like this, but gold and silver would be going absolutely gangbusters were it not for new asset classes.
Bitcoin ETFs now hold nearly 4% of all bitcoin — and they’re not slowing down
"The US government is another major holder, believed to be controlling up to 215,000 BTC ($13.23 billion), or 1.1% of bitcoin’s circulating supply, per BitcoinTreasuries. Authorities seized the coins as part of a variety of criminal cases, including ones tied to Silk Road and the Bitfinex hack from 2016."
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
They can have it all
This asset class (Ethereum and Bitcoin) is the most conflicted I've been on an "investment." It doesn't seem implausible to have bitcoin go up considerable, but it also doesn't seen implausible to have it tank. If it continues to gain traction for more and more mainstream investors and funds the price just has to more up significantly. There is a very limited supply and it appears that many are held in strong hands reducing the float. If the inflows to the EFTs continues, at even a very reduced rate, there just isn't the supply to feed them.
volatility can be your friend. . . or, your enemy. Patience is required. . . and so is quickness.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
FWIW:
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-03-27/bitcoin-price-dips-after-coinbase-staking-lawsuit-decision-analyst-warn
Yelling at clouds on pmbug.com
I think i just figured out Bitcoin.
When the price appears to be ready to collapse, buy it. But when the price appears to be ready to skyrocket, short it. 😆
Who knows....but as the market value of BTC goes up, the amount of new buying it takes to move it increases exponentially.
I don't believe this is accurate. The current price is just the meeting of the bid and the ask. Low volume can easily cause volatility in either direction in commodities/securities.
Part of the argument for higher prices is that the supply is limited and if demand does continue to increase the price would have to rise.
I'm reading that Bitcoin gains are treated as capital gains. Does anyone here have experience with how to keep track of the tax liabilities from transacting in Bitcoin? As I understand it, every selling transaction has a separate tax line and possibly a separate basis for the Bitcoin that is sold/or spent.
Are private wallets traceable by the IRS, or only those wallets that are associated with an exchange?
It seems clear that buying & selling of Bitcoin requires alot of recordkeeping, even for very minor transactions like buying a pizza. If that's the case, it seems at least as complicated and more somewhat more cumbersome than simply converting gold into fiat before spending it.
I knew it would happen.
I have no experience with private wallets, but when buying/selling cryptos on a platform (i.e. Robinhood) you treat them just as a stock on your tax return (capital gains). You need the same info at tax time as you would for a stock/ETF. A few of the platforms provide a year end summary to you.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
A few of the platforms provide a year end summary to you.
I expect that a platform would be able to provide a yearend summary, but I'm also somewhat apprehensive about putting any real money into an exchange or and ETF, for various reasons including the potential for hacking, fraud, tracking, and privacy in general.
My understanding from the Bitcoin website is that a hardware wallet or a paper wallet is most secure and suitable for larger long term sums, but that a wallet on an exchange is much more convenient for transactions.
My concern is mainly about keeping any substantial amount of money securely completely out of the system and not subject to anyone else's control. That was the original intent of Bitcoin, and it has morphed.
I knew it would happen.
No asset is safe from theft or fraud. Not even the gold you hold. Your cash in the bank is also subject to such a demise.
It all (and always) boils down to risk vs. reward.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Cryptos getting hammered, -10% or so in the last hour
Uncharted waters right now, especially a few hours from now.
Well, I guess the saying must be true, "If you don't hold it, you don't own it." RGDS!
P.S. I got some $$$$ burning a hole in the ole pocket. Another -30/40% drop on the make-believe digital digits and I'm back in. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
World situation evolving.... we shall see.
Opportunity knocks once again.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
.
That is why you don't really own anything with SLV.
.
That is why you don't really own anything with SLV.
Well, on the bright side of things, you actually own the same thing that's been promised to 10 other people at the same time.
I knew it would happen.
And it sells at market price with the click of a button. No trying to find a buyer, no lowball dealer offers, no shipping, no fees etc. EZ $$$. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.