Make the Morgan and Peace Dollar 1.5 inch 1 oz coins with a bullion version and collector versions like the ASE (Canada 1 oz silver maple leaves are similar diameter to the silver dollar).
>
As I see it, the main drawback would be that the 1 oz. Morgan/Peace dollars would look too similar to the classic and recent versions containing less silver. Too much opportunity for confusion and uncertainty by the general public.
We used to do this more frequently. Look at the silver content changes throughout the 1800s. We recently had a transition from .900 silver to .999 silver too.
2023 MORGAN SILVER DOLLAR UNC NO MINT MARK 260,598 +4
2023 MORGAN SILVER DOLLAR UNC NO MINT MARK – 40 COIN 330 –
2023 MORGAN SILVER DOLLAR PROOF (S) 312,032 +1,023
2023 MORGAN SILVER DOLLAR PROOF (S) – 40 COIN 443 –
2023 PEACE SILVER DOLLAR UNC NO MINT MARK 258,885 +13
2023 PEACE SILVER DOLLAR UNC NO MINT MARK – 40 COIN 338 –
2023 PEACE SILVER DOLLAR PROOF (S) 287,963 +1,088
2023 PEACE SILVER DOLLAR PROOF (S) – 40 COIN 438 –
Update on rate of 70 grades for 2023 Morgan and Peace uncs and proofs through 10/6/2023:
.
PCGS well over 50% of it's populations from "collector submissions" (FS and base label), while the flip-over to more collector submissions than big boy submissions has not happened yet at NGC.
Collector submissions, in general have a lower rate of 70s than the big boy labels (FDOI, AR), where minimum grade 70 is in effect (discussed in this thread thoroughly). As collector submissions become progressively become a greater proportion of the total population, the overall rate of 70s declines.
Of the collector submission labels, the First Strike (or Early Releases and First Releases) label has a higher rate of 70s than does the base label.
The Peace proof appears to be the toughest to get a 70. (but not as low a 70 rate as the 2021-D Morgan unc)
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
@Overdate said:
Will the Mint end sales of the 2023 Morgan/Peace proofs at the end of this year? If so, the final net mintage will likely be lower than 400,000 and more reflective of actual demand.
i believe the only restrictions are the statutory requirement of them displaying the date minted or year issued and plus how long the mint is willing to keep them in the warehouses.
@Overdate said:
Will the Mint end sales of the 2023 Morgan/Peace proofs at the end of this year? If so, the final net mintage will likely be lower than 400,000 and more reflective of actual demand.
i believe the only restrictions are the statutory requirement of them displaying the date minted or year issued and plus how long the mint is willing to keep them in the warehouses.
Project Numismatics Posts: 1,079 ✭✭✭✭✭
October 7, 2023 12:27PM
It doesn’t really matter to me what anyone calls them. I am really enjoying them, particularly the proofs. Coin, or not, bullion or not, overpriced or not, I like them.
I agree. Commerative, classic, type 2
Whatever. They are beautiful coins and I like them as well as do hundreds of thousands of collectors
" If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
@HATTRICK said:
Project Numismatics Posts: 1,079 ✭✭✭✭✭
October 7, 2023 12:27PM
It doesn’t really matter to me what anyone calls them. I am really enjoying them, particularly the proofs. Coin, or not, bullion or not, overpriced or not, I like them.
I agree. Commerative, classic, type 2
Whatever. They are beautiful coins and I like them as well as do hundreds of thousands of collectors
@johnny010 said:
Is anyone projecting the run to stop after 2023 due to sales or will production numbers just be reduced down?
My guess is that both series will continue. At the prices the Mint is charging, the Morgan/Peace dollars should be profitable even with much lower mintages.
@johnny010 said:
Is anyone projecting the run to stop after 2023 due to sales or will production numbers just be reduced down?
Why would the run stop "due to sales"? The uncs sold out and the proofs sold over 300K of each!
The idea isn't to flood the market at a premium of over 300% to spot. It's to match supply to demand at that inflated price. Look for production numbers to be reduced, but only modestly. Not to create a flipping frenzy, but to create sellouts while keeping them easy to obtain for collectors.
@johnny010 said:
Is anyone projecting the run to stop after 2023 due to sales or will production numbers just be reduced down?
One could make a case that, at this price point, the mint could increase production of the uncs to 300,000 and reduce the proofs to 300,000, and have a likely chance of selling them out. Conjecture on my part, but I expect them to drop the RP next year, and bring it back only occasionally, if the series continues long enough.
Steve Palladino - Ike Group member - DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
@johnny010 said:
Is anyone projecting the run to stop after 2023 due to sales or will production numbers just be reduced down?
One could make a case that, at this price point, the mint could increase production of the uncs to 300,000 and reduce the proofs to 300,000, and have a likely chance of selling them out. Conjecture on my part, but I expect them to drop the RP next year, and bring it back only occasionally, if the series continues long enough.
I respectfully disagree. The Mint was working off historic numbers that suggest proofs are more popular than uncs. Those numbers are correct. They barely sold out the uncs at 275K, and easily exceeded that number for the proofs, although not getting close to 400K.
This year's numbers were decent guesses -- spot on for the uncs, albeit too optimistic for the proofs.
I agree with you about the RPs being a one-year special. I also worry about interest waning as the novelty wears off.
I'd like to see them drop mintages for both uncs and proofs to 250K next year, to maintain interest and values, while not creating a flipping frenzy. If they get greedy and increase unc mintages to 300K, they are going to kill interest. Unless they drop prices to stimulate demand, but I REALLY don't see them doing that.
[Is anyone projecting the run to stop after 2023 due to sales or will production numbers just be reduced down?]
I can actually envision a scenario where the silver Eagle is discontinued (one might say that should have happened instead of a mediocre reverse redesign)...and these will replace them as the annual silver issue(s).
@RichR said:
[Is anyone projecting the run to stop after 2023 due to sales or will production numbers just be reduced down?]
I can actually envision a scenario where the silver Eagle is discontinued (one might say that should have happened instead of a mediocre reverse redesign)...and these will replace them as the annual silver issue(s).
That would not be a horrible scenario.
I see the series continuing with a more modest limit. As far as the silver Eagle, I don’t think they’re going anywhere. It’s the worlds most demanded silver bullion. I would expect though to see redesigns occur more swiftly. Perhaps every 5 years or so.
Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.
Overall I would say the 2023 M/P program is a resounding success.
I really thought they would sell out the 400K each.
I would think they could tell from other product sales trends what the market looks like for next year. If I had a say I would dial back to lower mintages and household limits. Let the big guys make some margin, build in some scarcity and future value. If the big marketers have more margin they will devote more resources to promotion and advertising. Create demand and collectors.
@RichR said:
[Is anyone projecting the run to stop after 2023 due to sales or will production numbers just be reduced down?]
I can actually envision a scenario where the silver Eagle is discontinued (one might say that should have happened instead of a mediocre reverse redesign)...and these will replace them as the annual silver issue(s).
That would not be a horrible scenario.
They'd have to change the weight. They wouldn't be the same coin.
@RichR said:
[Is anyone projecting the run to stop after 2023 due to sales or will production numbers just be reduced down?]
I can actually envision a scenario where the silver Eagle is discontinued (one might say that should have happened instead of a mediocre reverse redesign)...and these will replace them as the annual silver issue(s).
That would not be a horrible scenario.
They'd have to change the weight. They wouldn't be the same coin.
Also they aren't going to discontinue a standard bullion icon like the ASE. The premium attached compared to other bullion issues from other countries proves its status.
@RichR said:
[Is anyone projecting the run to stop after 2023 due to sales or will production numbers just be reduced down?]
I can actually envision a scenario where the silver Eagle is discontinued (one might say that should have happened instead of a mediocre reverse redesign)...and these will replace them as the annual silver issue(s).
That would not be a horrible scenario.
They'd have to change the weight. They wouldn't be the same coin.
Also they aren't going to discontinue a standard bullion icon like the ASE. The premium attached compared to other bullion issues from other countries proves its status.
Agree. Although I think the premium is attached to the U.S issuance not the design.
Only being slightly tongue in cheek here… The TV jewelry channels generally sell their gold items for 2.5 times spot…. Maybe the Mint aimed a little too high in pricing these coins… That’s always the balance - between price and quantity - when attempting to ascertain demand…
@Pumpkinhead said:
Only being slightly tongue in cheek here… The TV jewelry channels generally sell their gold items for 2.5 times spot…. Maybe the Mint aimed a little too high in pricing these coins… That’s always the balance - between price and quantity - when attempting to ascertain demand…
How can you say that, when they sold over a million of them? They are priced comparably to how most world mints price their numismatic offerings, and there is very robust demand, for what they are.
Sure, they could price them at spot + 10% and sell 30 million of them, but then they'd be bullion, not what they were designed to be. The proof that they were priced just right is that they sold out of the uncs, and they are holding their value.
While they have not sold out the proofs, they are also not being offered at deep discounts in the secondary market. The only thing a lower price would accomplish, other selling out what remains of the proofs, would be creating a flip for us. The market price for raw coins is clearly right around where the Mint sold 550K uncs and around 700K proofs.
1971-S proof Eisenhower 40% silver dollars were initally offered by the Mint with no issue limit at $10 each (that's $75 in today's dollars). They sold over 4.2 million of them.
2023-S Morgan/Peace proof 100% silver dollars are being offered by the Mint, each with a 400 thousand issue limit at $80. They have sold most of them.
Of course the coin market today is vastly different from the coin market of 1971. But given this historical data point, the issue limits for proof Morgan and Peace dollars are not unreasonably high..
@Overdate said:
A little context, from 52 years ago:
1971-S proof Eisenhower 40% silver dollars were initally offered by the Mint with no issue limit at $10 each (that's $75 in today's dollars). They sold over 4.2 million of them.
2023-S Morgan/Peace proof 100% silver dollars are being offered by the Mint, each with a 400 thousand issue limit at $80. They have sold most of them.
Of course the coin market today is vastly different from the coin market of 1971. But given this historical data point, the issue limits for proof Morgan and Peace dollars are not unreasonably high..
True, but the key is that the market is different. You can rest assured, if there was demand for 4 million proof Eagles at $80, they'd be selling 4 million proof Eagles at $80.
Just like $10 in 1971 equals $75 dollars today, 4 million proofs in 1971 also equals around 350K today. They are minting to demand, regardless of whether they put a notional limit on it. When they are making less, you get crashed websites and easy flips.
No, 400K is not unreasonably high, but it is also not low. It is the 2023 equivalent of 4.2 million in 1971. By design. These are not supposed to be rare. They are supposed to be obtainable without flooding the market. And that's exactly what they are.
I think this has been a good program for the mint. I am happy that everyone who wants one seemingly is able to get one. I hardly order anything from the mint anymore and did purchase all these and the '21s.
My wish would be that the mint went back to the frosted design rather than the laser etched pebbly proofs.
@NJCoin said:
No, 400K is not unreasonably high, but it is also not low. It is the 2023 equivalent of 4.2 million in 1971.
If this is true, then it means that the collector base has shrunk by more than 90 percent, despite the U.S. population increasing by 67% since 1971.
I guess that all depends on how you define "collector base."
If it's anyone who every pulled a state quarter out of change, then the collector base is larger than ever. But, if it's defined by how many core products, like annual proof sets are sold, then, yeah, it's 90% lower than it was when we were kids.
Back in the day, we anxiously waited for the Mint to start taking mail orders for proof sets, and they sold them until they hit their production limit of several million. Just like those 1971 Ikes mentioned above.
Nowadays, how many million of any collector product do they sell? Answer -- none, although you can fudge that number and get to something over a million if you want to combine, for example, all collector ASEs sold in a given year, or all Morgan and Peace Dollars, in all the various finishes and mintmarks.
Has anyone else noticed that the 2023 Proof Morgan seems to have a minor variation?
Morgan's initial "M" on the reverse bow is deeper and more defined on some coins, while being shallow and poorly defined on others. At least on the coins I have. Just curious if that or other variants have been noticed by others.
@RichR said:
[But, if it's defined by how many core products, like annual proof sets are sold, then, yeah, it's 90% lower than it was when we were kids.]
Sunday is my birthday...but man did this comment make me feel older than dirt!
At least you are still on "This side of the Dirt" I remember those days of searching rolls for my Lincoln Penny collection and waiting for the Proof and Mint sets in the mail.
" If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
@jimbaker74 said:
Has anyone else noticed that the 2023 Proof Morgan seems to have a minor variation?
Morgan's initial "M" on the reverse bow is deeper and more defined on some coins, while being shallow and poorly defined on others. At least on the coins I have. Just curious if that or other variants have been noticed by others.
Such a "variation" is common due to die wear or grease on almost all coins with a small feature like that. The only time anyone cares is if the feature is completely gone (see "no FG" cents).
I am aware of gease or other situations where marks / letters disappear. I have about 10 coins of each from the above pics. It seems more like a die variation than grease in the die.
I am doubtful there is value to it, but the markings appear distinctly different to me.
I am aware of gease or other situations where marks / letters disappear. I have about 10 coins of each from the above pics. It seems more like a die variation than grease in the die.
I am doubtful there is value to it, but the markings appear distinctly different to me.
There's likely only one master hub for the entire mintage. I'm not sure how you would get such a variety on a die from a single hub. Weak press?
@Overdate said:
A little context, from 52 years ago:
1971-S proof Eisenhower 40% silver dollars were initally offered by the Mint with no issue limit at $10 each (that's $75 in today's dollars). They sold over 4.2 million of them.
2023-S Morgan/Peace proof 100% silver dollars are being offered by the Mint, each with a 400 thousand issue limit at $80. They have sold most of them.
Of course the coin market today is vastly different from the coin market of 1971. But given this historical data point, the issue limits for proof Morgan and Peace dollars are not unreasonably high..
Interesting analysis.
A couple factors that I recall....
The issuance of the Ike dollar was a huge event. It was the first dollar coin in 50 years, and it came at a time when there were no commemoratives or other special issues.
The Ike was widely promoted and covered in the general population. Banks, etc. had fliers/order forms, if I recall.
Nowadays we are inundated with new issues, commems, variations on current issues, etc. And, the main customer base is existing collectors.
I just loved getting those blue boxes in the mail from the San Francisco "ASSAY OFFICE"...because we all know that only Philly and Denver had "real" mints back in the day!
@Overdate said:
A little context, from 52 years ago:
1971-S proof Eisenhower 40% silver dollars were initally offered by the Mint with no issue limit at $10 each (that's $75 in today's dollars). They sold over 4.2 million of them.
2023-S Morgan/Peace proof 100% silver dollars are being offered by the Mint, each with a 400 thousand issue limit at $80. They have sold most of them.
Of course the coin market today is vastly different from the coin market of 1971. But given this historical data point, the issue limits for proof Morgan and Peace dollars are not unreasonably high..
Interesting analysis.
A couple factors that I recall....
The issuance of the Ike dollar was a huge event. It was the first dollar coin in 50 years, and it came at a time when there were no commemoratives or other special issues.
The Ike was widely promoted and covered in the general population. Banks, etc. had fliers/order forms, if I recall.
Nowadays we are inundated with new issues, commems, variations on current issues, etc. And, the main customer base is existing collectors.
And Ike was a national icon. A lot of non-collectors bought them.
I am aware of gease or other situations where marks / letters disappear. I have about 10 coins of each from the above pics. It seems more like a die variation than grease in the die.
I am doubtful there is value to it, but the markings appear distinctly different to me.
There's likely only one master hub for the entire mintage. I'm not sure how you would get such a variety on a die from a single hub. Weak press?
A weak press should be evident with the other design elements, right? And grease would look flat, a dimished surface compared to the ribbon.
A run of 400,000 should have a single master hub. Bur that means 20 or working dies? Maybe some elements like the "M" were refined in the working dies?
I know it seems unlikely, but although I haven't contributed to this forum much, I have a almost a thousand 1878-1921 Morgans, and I've owned a few thousand. This could be hubbing, or maybe a grease fill, but the mirror finish vs. the frost finish seems to indicate die variation.
I'll try to get better pics. The other 40 I have favor the shallow imprint. It's just not something someone should expect for a modern proof run.
And the variance between the two (strong vs shallow) seem dramatic. It's more like a broken D, a broken N-M, a washed our "L" or even the weak 1922-D one cent mintmark than a grease fill or other overstrike error.
@NJCoin said:
No, 400K is not unreasonably high, but it is also not low. It is the 2023 equivalent of 4.2 million in 1971.
If this is true, then it means that the collector base has shrunk by more than 90 percent, despite the U.S. population increasing by 67% since 1971.
According to the United States Mint when David Ryder was first Mint Director in 1992 the customer base was approximately 2 million.
According to the United States Mint when David Ryder came back as Mint Director in 2018 the customer base was "under" 500,000.
@NJCoin said:
No, 400K is not unreasonably high, but it is also not low. It is the 2023 equivalent of 4.2 million in 1971.
If this is true, then it means that the collector base has shrunk by more than 90 percent, despite the U.S. population increasing by 67% since 1971.
According to the United States Mint when David Ryder was first Mint Director in 1992 the customer base was approximately 2 million.
According to the United States Mint when David Ryder came back as Mint Director in 2018 the customer base was "under" 500,000.
WOW that is a big drop but not a surprise to me. All the brick and motor coin shops and farmers market booths have closed up in my area. Kids even the grown up ones are not interested in collecting anymore. It only goes down from here. There are so many closets full of coins that will only be sold off for scrap metal to buy weed.
" If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
@NJCoin said:
No, 400K is not unreasonably high, but it is also not low. It is the 2023 equivalent of 4.2 million in 1971.
If this is true, then it means that the collector base has shrunk by more than 90 percent, despite the U.S. population increasing by 67% since 1971.
According to the United States Mint when David Ryder was first Mint Director in 1992 the customer base was approximately 2 million.
According to the United States Mint when David Ryder came back as Mint Director in 2018 the customer base was "under" 500,000.
WOW that is a big drop but not a surprise to me. All the brick and motor coin shops and farmers market booths have closed up in my area. Kids even the grown up ones are not interested in collecting anymore. It only goes down from here. There are so many closets full of coins that will only be sold off for scrap metal to buy weed.
They are on Instagram.
I'd also suggest that the drop in proof sets is probably not directly correlative with a drop in collectors. Look at the number of people on this forum that once bought Mint products but have sworn off future Mint purchases. I think the fact that the number of actual Proof and Mint sets has dropped from 2 million to 500,000 is more about the popularity of those products.
Re the drop off in collecting...admittedly times and tastes have changed...however, I'd like to know how many more collectors would be buying from the Mint if a full year's output consisted of a proof set, a mint set, and maybe a special commemorative issue or two...that could all be had for $150/$200 per year...like back in the "good old days".
Many people are "completists" and are undoubtedly turned off by the multiplicity of Mint issues today (many of which are of dubious value).
Let me split my future comment into two groups. first group is the modern mint coins. The TV snake oil salesmen and online dealers selling to the last of the Franklin MInt "sometimers" is the biggest part of modern mint coin sales with help of the flippers who still hope for the big one. While much is sold there is little chance that a majority will ever be able to unload their stash for anything but melt. The market for now absorbs most but there eventually will be nowhere to go with it.
The second group which is high dollar investment coins has a much better longevity. People with money will always want to own high value treasures.
" If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
@RichR said:
Re the drop off in collecting...admittedly times and tastes have changed...however, I'd like to know how many more collectors would be buying from the Mint if a full year's output consisted of a proof set, a mint set, and maybe a special commemorative issue or two...that could all be had for $150/$200 per year...like back in the "good old days".
Many people are "completists" and are undoubtedly turned off by the multiplicity of Mint issues today (many of which are of dubious value).
To be fair, mint and proof set sales have been steadily dropping for decades. This is not a recent phenomenon.
[To be fair, mint and proof set sales have been steadily dropping for decades. This is not a recent phenomenon.]
There's a part of me that wishes the Mint produced all annual Proof & Mint sets only in silver...but at a more reasonable price point than the Silver proof sets.
@RichR said:
[To be fair, mint and proof set sales have been steadily dropping for decades. This is not a recent phenomenon.]
There's a part of me that wishes the Mint produced all annual Proof & Mint sets only in silver...but at a more reasonable price point than the Silver proof sets.
That would make them "special".
Sure. But they would probably still be dropping. The same decrease also exists for the silver sets, proof ASEs etc.
I am not sure why the issue of collector base dwindling is such an infatuation on the boards. IMHO, it is not a yes/no, black/white, all or none proposition. I think it pretty clear the collector base is decreasing by a fair amount and that collector demographics follow the inverse pyramid of Buick model (ie. lower numbers of younger collectors, with increase of numbers with increased age - to a point).
I find it amusing when folks hold a magnifying glass over photos or figuratively over specific events where YNs are present. They are there, but in vastly reduced numbers. Despite my less than younger age, I have a 14 year old son & have tried for years to interest him, his friends, classmates, scout mates in coins. Tried to make it interesting and fun, giving away samples, trying to tie to current cults, history, etc. The very best I ever got was: "oh, how much is it worth?"
Entry level interest in coins such as lower grade Lincolns, Jeffs, Franklins, etc. looks to be dropping significantly and I think readers can sample this assessment by keeping their eyes open.
Simply put, the alternatives such as computer games, sports, etc. is overmatching coins, period.
Now before I get discounted as a "gloom and doom" advocate, I am not. I love coins and began collecting Lincolns like most FIFTY-EIGHT YEARS ago! There is big interest still amongst others my age and even slightly younger with top-end collectors able to spend huge money for big rarities (ie. Tyrant, Hansen, etc.). This enthusiasm is welcome to many of us. There is a growing disconnect between the populace in coins because of credit cards, etc. so this might be dissuading many, etc.........
Anyway, back to the OP: I have slavishly bought the newer Morgan and Peace dollar issues, but after looking at them a couple of times relegated them to a sad place in the closet. I like the Peace much better and look forward to the release of the RPs but suspect they will find their place in said closet.
Cheers to the issue of these coins, but now let them taper the issues, please.
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
@7Jaguars said:
I am not sure why the issue of collector base dwindling is such an infatuation on the boards. IMHO, it is not a yes/no, black/white, all or none proposition. I think it pretty clear the collector base is decreasing by a fair amount and that collector demographics follow the inverse pyramid of Buick model (ie. lower numbers of younger collectors, with increase of numbers with increased age - to a point).
I find it amusing when folks hold a magnifying glass over photos or figuratively over specific events where YNs are present. They are there, but in vastly reduced numbers. Despite my less than younger age, I have a 14 year old son & have tried for years to interest him, his friends, classmates, scout mates in coins. Tried to make it interesting and fun, giving away samples, trying to tie to current cults, history, etc. The very best I ever got was: "oh, how much is it worth?"
Entry level interest in coins such as lower grade Lincolns, Jeffs, Franklins, etc. looks to be dropping significantly and I think readers can sample this assessment by keeping their eyes open.
Simply put, the alternatives such as computer games, sports, etc. is overmatching coins, period.
Now before I get discounted as a "gloom and doom" advocate, I am not. I love coins and began collecting Lincolns like most FIFTY-EIGHT YEARS ago! There is big interest still amongst others my age and even slightly younger with top-end collectors able to spend huge money for big rarities (ie. Tyrant, Hansen, etc.). This enthusiasm is welcome to many of us. There is a growing disconnect between the populace in coins because of credit cards, etc. so this might be dissuading many, etc.........
Anyway, back to the OP: I have slavishly bought the newer Morgan and Peace dollar issues, but after looking at them a couple of times relegated them to a sad place in the closet. I like the Peace much better and look forward to the release of the RPs but suspect they will find their place in said closet.
Cheers to the issue of these coins, but now let them taper the issues, please.
I kind of agree. I don't see any evidence of either a decrease or an increase. What there has been is a change in where they collect and how they collect.
I ran the local YN program for years. Very few of the kids stayed in the program through their teens. But I think that was true of my generation. I "collected" with my grandfather as a kid, left the hobby in my teens and twenties and returned in my 30s.
What is definitely true is that collectors have moved away from dusty legion halls and on to the internet and social media.
I also think there is less date/MM collecting, but that is strictly anecdotal.
@7Jaguars said:
I am not sure why the issue of collector base dwindling is such an infatuation on the boards. IMHO, it is not a yes/no, black/white, all or none proposition. I think it pretty clear the collector base is decreasing by a fair amount and that collector demographics follow the inverse pyramid of Buick model (ie. lower numbers of younger collectors, with increase of numbers with increased age - to a point).
I find it amusing when folks hold a magnifying glass over photos or figuratively over specific events where YNs are present. They are there, but in vastly reduced numbers. Despite my less than younger age, I have a 14 year old son & have tried for years to interest him, his friends, classmates, scout mates in coins. Tried to make it interesting and fun, giving away samples, trying to tie to current cults, history, etc. The very best I ever got was: "oh, how much is it worth?"
Entry level interest in coins such as lower grade Lincolns, Jeffs, Franklins, etc. looks to be dropping significantly and I think readers can sample this assessment by keeping their eyes open.
Simply put, the alternatives such as computer games, sports, etc. is overmatching coins, period.
Now before I get discounted as a "gloom and doom" advocate, I am not. I love coins and began collecting Lincolns like most FIFTY-EIGHT YEARS ago! There is big interest still amongst others my age and even slightly younger with top-end collectors able to spend huge money for big rarities (ie. Tyrant, Hansen, etc.). This enthusiasm is welcome to many of us. There is a growing disconnect between the populace in coins because of credit cards, etc. so this might be dissuading many, etc.........
Anyway, back to the OP: I have slavishly bought the newer Morgan and Peace dollar issues, but after looking at them a couple of times relegated them to a sad place in the closet. I like the Peace much better and look forward to the release of the RPs but suspect they will find their place in said closet.
Cheers to the issue of these coins, but now let them taper the issues, please.
I agree with you 100% I still love collecting coins and still buy every year. Even though they go into the closet I still enjoy pulling them out on occasion to enjoy them. Like you said my kids and their friends as well as many people in my circle of influence have no interest in collecting. This is what forms my impression of the future and I also realize others have different opinions based on their circle of experience. To each his own and regardless keep collecting and enjoying until you die and don't worry what will be done with the treasures you have amassed.
" If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
Comments
We used to do this more frequently. Look at the silver content changes throughout the 1800s. We recently had a transition from .900 silver to .999 silver too.
w/e 09/24/2023 mint sales...
2023 MORGAN SILVER DOLLAR UNC NO MINT MARK 260,598 +4
2023 MORGAN SILVER DOLLAR UNC NO MINT MARK – 40 COIN 330 –
2023 MORGAN SILVER DOLLAR PROOF (S) 312,032 +1,023
2023 MORGAN SILVER DOLLAR PROOF (S) – 40 COIN 443 –
2023 PEACE SILVER DOLLAR UNC NO MINT MARK 258,885 +13
2023 PEACE SILVER DOLLAR UNC NO MINT MARK – 40 COIN 338 –
2023 PEACE SILVER DOLLAR PROOF (S) 287,963 +1,088
2023 PEACE SILVER DOLLAR PROOF (S) – 40 COIN 438 –
Update on rate of 70 grades for 2023 Morgan and Peace uncs and proofs through 10/6/2023:
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PCGS well over 50% of it's populations from "collector submissions" (FS and base label), while the flip-over to more collector submissions than big boy submissions has not happened yet at NGC.
Collector submissions, in general have a lower rate of 70s than the big boy labels (FDOI, AR), where minimum grade 70 is in effect (discussed in this thread thoroughly). As collector submissions become progressively become a greater proportion of the total population, the overall rate of 70s declines.
Of the collector submission labels, the First Strike (or Early Releases and First Releases) label has a higher rate of 70s than does the base label.
The Peace proof appears to be the toughest to get a 70. (but not as low a 70 rate as the 2021-D Morgan unc)
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
The proof dollars are essentially being minted to meet demand. I'm not sure that's a bad thing.
i believe the only restrictions are the statutory requirement of them displaying the date minted or year issued and plus how long the mint is willing to keep them in the warehouses.
https://catalog.usmint.gov/america-the-beautiful-quarters-2019-proof-set-19AP.html?cgid=proof-sets#start=1
https://catalog.usmint.gov/american-liberty-one-tenth-ounce-2018-gold-proof-coin-18XF.html
https://catalog.usmint.gov/american-liberty-one-ounce-225th-anniversary-gold-coin-17XA.html
Still happy with my purchases. Ordered PCGS 70 FS Reverse Proof Set to complete my 2023 Set.
Project Numismatics Posts: 1,079 ✭✭✭✭✭
October 7, 2023 12:27PM
It doesn’t really matter to me what anyone calls them. I am really enjoying them, particularly the proofs. Coin, or not, bullion or not, overpriced or not, I like them.
I agree. Commerative, classic, type 2
Whatever. They are beautiful coins and I like them as well as do hundreds of thousands of collectors
That's all that should matter.
Is anyone projecting the run to stop after 2023 due to sales or will production numbers just be reduced down?
My guess is that both series will continue. At the prices the Mint is charging, the Morgan/Peace dollars should be profitable even with much lower mintages.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Why would the run stop "due to sales"? The uncs sold out and the proofs sold over 300K of each!
The idea isn't to flood the market at a premium of over 300% to spot. It's to match supply to demand at that inflated price. Look for production numbers to be reduced, but only modestly. Not to create a flipping frenzy, but to create sellouts while keeping them easy to obtain for collectors.
One could make a case that, at this price point, the mint could increase production of the uncs to 300,000 and reduce the proofs to 300,000, and have a likely chance of selling them out. Conjecture on my part, but I expect them to drop the RP next year, and bring it back only occasionally, if the series continues long enough.
- Ike Group member
- DIVa (Designated Ike Varieties) Project co-lead and attributor
I respectfully disagree. The Mint was working off historic numbers that suggest proofs are more popular than uncs. Those numbers are correct. They barely sold out the uncs at 275K, and easily exceeded that number for the proofs, although not getting close to 400K.
This year's numbers were decent guesses -- spot on for the uncs, albeit too optimistic for the proofs.
I agree with you about the RPs being a one-year special. I also worry about interest waning as the novelty wears off.
I'd like to see them drop mintages for both uncs and proofs to 250K next year, to maintain interest and values, while not creating a flipping frenzy. If they get greedy and increase unc mintages to 300K, they are going to kill interest. Unless they drop prices to stimulate demand, but I REALLY don't see them doing that.
[Is anyone projecting the run to stop after 2023 due to sales or will production numbers just be reduced down?]
I can actually envision a scenario where the silver Eagle is discontinued (one might say that should have happened instead of a mediocre reverse redesign)...and these will replace them as the annual silver issue(s).
That would not be a horrible scenario.
I see the series continuing with a more modest limit. As far as the silver Eagle, I don’t think they’re going anywhere. It’s the worlds most demanded silver bullion. I would expect though to see redesigns occur more swiftly. Perhaps every 5 years or so.
Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.
Overall I would say the 2023 M/P program is a resounding success.
I really thought they would sell out the 400K each.
I would think they could tell from other product sales trends what the market looks like for next year. If I had a say I would dial back to lower mintages and household limits. Let the big guys make some margin, build in some scarcity and future value. If the big marketers have more margin they will devote more resources to promotion and advertising. Create demand and collectors.
They'd have to change the weight. They wouldn't be the same coin.
Also they aren't going to discontinue a standard bullion icon like the ASE. The premium attached compared to other bullion issues from other countries proves its status.
Agree. Although I think the premium is attached to the U.S issuance not the design.
Only being slightly tongue in cheek here… The TV jewelry channels generally sell their gold items for 2.5 times spot…. Maybe the Mint aimed a little too high in pricing these coins… That’s always the balance - between price and quantity - when attempting to ascertain demand…
How can you say that, when they sold over a million of them? They are priced comparably to how most world mints price their numismatic offerings, and there is very robust demand, for what they are.
Sure, they could price them at spot + 10% and sell 30 million of them, but then they'd be bullion, not what they were designed to be. The proof that they were priced just right is that they sold out of the uncs, and they are holding their value.
While they have not sold out the proofs, they are also not being offered at deep discounts in the secondary market. The only thing a lower price would accomplish, other selling out what remains of the proofs, would be creating a flip for us. The market price for raw coins is clearly right around where the Mint sold 550K uncs and around 700K proofs.
A little context, from 52 years ago:
1971-S proof Eisenhower 40% silver dollars were initally offered by the Mint with no issue limit at $10 each (that's $75 in today's dollars). They sold over 4.2 million of them.
2023-S Morgan/Peace proof 100% silver dollars are being offered by the Mint, each with a 400 thousand issue limit at $80. They have sold most of them.
Of course the coin market today is vastly different from the coin market of 1971. But given this historical data point, the issue limits for proof Morgan and Peace dollars are not unreasonably high..
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
True, but the key is that the market is different. You can rest assured, if there was demand for 4 million proof Eagles at $80, they'd be selling 4 million proof Eagles at $80.
Just like $10 in 1971 equals $75 dollars today, 4 million proofs in 1971 also equals around 350K today. They are minting to demand, regardless of whether they put a notional limit on it. When they are making less, you get crashed websites and easy flips.
No, 400K is not unreasonably high, but it is also not low. It is the 2023 equivalent of 4.2 million in 1971. By design. These are not supposed to be rare. They are supposed to be obtainable without flooding the market. And that's exactly what they are.
If this is true, then it means that the collector base has shrunk by more than 90 percent, despite the U.S. population increasing by 67% since 1971.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I think this has been a good program for the mint. I am happy that everyone who wants one seemingly is able to get one. I hardly order anything from the mint anymore and did purchase all these and the '21s.
My wish would be that the mint went back to the frosted design rather than the laser etched pebbly proofs.
I guess that all depends on how you define "collector base."
If it's anyone who every pulled a state quarter out of change, then the collector base is larger than ever. But, if it's defined by how many core products, like annual proof sets are sold, then, yeah, it's 90% lower than it was when we were kids.
Back in the day, we anxiously waited for the Mint to start taking mail orders for proof sets, and they sold them until they hit their production limit of several million. Just like those 1971 Ikes mentioned above.
Nowadays, how many million of any collector product do they sell? Answer -- none, although you can fudge that number and get to something over a million if you want to combine, for example, all collector ASEs sold in a given year, or all Morgan and Peace Dollars, in all the various finishes and mintmarks.
[But, if it's defined by how many core products, like annual proof sets are sold, then, yeah, it's 90% lower than it was when we were kids.]
Sunday is my birthday...but man did this comment make me feel older than dirt!
Has anyone else noticed that the 2023 Proof Morgan seems to have a minor variation?
Morgan's initial "M" on the reverse bow is deeper and more defined on some coins, while being shallow and poorly defined on others. At least on the coins I have. Just curious if that or other variants have been noticed by others.
At least you are still on "This side of the Dirt" I remember those days of searching rolls for my Lincoln Penny collection and waiting for the Proof and Mint sets in the mail.
Such a "variation" is common due to die wear or grease on almost all coins with a small feature like that. The only time anyone cares is if the feature is completely gone (see "no FG" cents).
I am aware of gease or other situations where marks / letters disappear. I have about 10 coins of each from the above pics. It seems more like a die variation than grease in the die.
I am doubtful there is value to it, but the markings appear distinctly different to me.
There's likely only one master hub for the entire mintage. I'm not sure how you would get such a variety on a die from a single hub. Weak press?
Interesting analysis.
A couple factors that I recall....
The issuance of the Ike dollar was a huge event. It was the first dollar coin in 50 years, and it came at a time when there were no commemoratives or other special issues.
The Ike was widely promoted and covered in the general population. Banks, etc. had fliers/order forms, if I recall.
Nowadays we are inundated with new issues, commems, variations on current issues, etc. And, the main customer base is existing collectors.
I just loved getting those blue boxes in the mail from the San Francisco "ASSAY OFFICE"...because we all know that only Philly and Denver had "real" mints back in the day!
...and West Point was only a military academy!
And Ike was a national icon. A lot of non-collectors bought them.
A weak press should be evident with the other design elements, right? And grease would look flat, a dimished surface compared to the ribbon.
A run of 400,000 should have a single master hub. Bur that means 20 or working dies? Maybe some elements like the "M" were refined in the working dies?
I know it seems unlikely, but although I haven't contributed to this forum much, I have a almost a thousand 1878-1921 Morgans, and I've owned a few thousand. This could be hubbing, or maybe a grease fill, but the mirror finish vs. the frost finish seems to indicate die variation.
I'll try to get better pics. The other 40 I have favor the shallow imprint. It's just not something someone should expect for a modern proof run.
And the variance between the two (strong vs shallow) seem dramatic. It's more like a broken D, a broken N-M, a washed our "L" or even the weak 1922-D one cent mintmark than a grease fill or other overstrike error.
Speaking of Ike as a national icon...I give you the EARLIEST color video footage in existence...from 1958!
I'm not sure I've ever seen Eisenhower in color before...therefore, he looks more "contemporary" than usual.
According to the United States Mint when David Ryder was first Mint Director in 1992 the customer base was approximately 2 million.
According to the United States Mint when David Ryder came back as Mint Director in 2018 the customer base was "under" 500,000.
WOW that is a big drop but not a surprise to me. All the brick and motor coin shops and farmers market booths have closed up in my area. Kids even the grown up ones are not interested in collecting anymore. It only goes down from here. There are so many closets full of coins that will only be sold off for scrap metal to buy weed.
They are on Instagram.
I'd also suggest that the drop in proof sets is probably not directly correlative with a drop in collectors. Look at the number of people on this forum that once bought Mint products but have sworn off future Mint purchases. I think the fact that the number of actual Proof and Mint sets has dropped from 2 million to 500,000 is more about the popularity of those products.
As a wise old Sargent use to say... Smoke em' if you got em'
BST references available on request
Re the drop off in collecting...admittedly times and tastes have changed...however, I'd like to know how many more collectors would be buying from the Mint if a full year's output consisted of a proof set, a mint set, and maybe a special commemorative issue or two...that could all be had for $150/$200 per year...like back in the "good old days".
Many people are "completists" and are undoubtedly turned off by the multiplicity of Mint issues today (many of which are of dubious value).
Let me split my future comment into two groups. first group is the modern mint coins. The TV snake oil salesmen and online dealers selling to the last of the Franklin MInt "sometimers" is the biggest part of modern mint coin sales with help of the flippers who still hope for the big one. While much is sold there is little chance that a majority will ever be able to unload their stash for anything but melt. The market for now absorbs most but there eventually will be nowhere to go with it.
The second group which is high dollar investment coins has a much better longevity. People with money will always want to own high value treasures.
To be fair, mint and proof set sales have been steadily dropping for decades. This is not a recent phenomenon.
[To be fair, mint and proof set sales have been steadily dropping for decades. This is not a recent phenomenon.]
There's a part of me that wishes the Mint produced all annual Proof & Mint sets only in silver...but at a more reasonable price point than the Silver proof sets.
That would make them "special".
Sure. But they would probably still be dropping. The same decrease also exists for the silver sets, proof ASEs etc.
I am not sure why the issue of collector base dwindling is such an infatuation on the boards. IMHO, it is not a yes/no, black/white, all or none proposition. I think it pretty clear the collector base is decreasing by a fair amount and that collector demographics follow the inverse pyramid of Buick model (ie. lower numbers of younger collectors, with increase of numbers with increased age - to a point).
I find it amusing when folks hold a magnifying glass over photos or figuratively over specific events where YNs are present. They are there, but in vastly reduced numbers. Despite my less than younger age, I have a 14 year old son & have tried for years to interest him, his friends, classmates, scout mates in coins. Tried to make it interesting and fun, giving away samples, trying to tie to current cults, history, etc. The very best I ever got was: "oh, how much is it worth?"
Entry level interest in coins such as lower grade Lincolns, Jeffs, Franklins, etc. looks to be dropping significantly and I think readers can sample this assessment by keeping their eyes open.
Simply put, the alternatives such as computer games, sports, etc. is overmatching coins, period.
Now before I get discounted as a "gloom and doom" advocate, I am not. I love coins and began collecting Lincolns like most FIFTY-EIGHT YEARS ago! There is big interest still amongst others my age and even slightly younger with top-end collectors able to spend huge money for big rarities (ie. Tyrant, Hansen, etc.). This enthusiasm is welcome to many of us. There is a growing disconnect between the populace in coins because of credit cards, etc. so this might be dissuading many, etc.........
Anyway, back to the OP: I have slavishly bought the newer Morgan and Peace dollar issues, but after looking at them a couple of times relegated them to a sad place in the closet. I like the Peace much better and look forward to the release of the RPs but suspect they will find their place in said closet.
Cheers to the issue of these coins, but now let them taper the issues, please.
Well, just Love coins, period.
I kind of agree. I don't see any evidence of either a decrease or an increase. What there has been is a change in where they collect and how they collect.
I ran the local YN program for years. Very few of the kids stayed in the program through their teens. But I think that was true of my generation. I "collected" with my grandfather as a kid, left the hobby in my teens and twenties and returned in my 30s.
What is definitely true is that collectors have moved away from dusty legion halls and on to the internet and social media.
I also think there is less date/MM collecting, but that is strictly anecdotal.
I agree with you 100% I still love collecting coins and still buy every year. Even though they go into the closet I still enjoy pulling them out on occasion to enjoy them. Like you said my kids and their friends as well as many people in my circle of influence have no interest in collecting. This is what forms my impression of the future and I also realize others have different opinions based on their circle of experience. To each his own and regardless keep collecting and enjoying until you die and don't worry what will be done with the treasures you have amassed.