Where do you rate current US economic conditions?

RedneckHB · February 22, 2023 5:51AM

derryb · February 22, 2023 7:12AM

DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

Courage is a poor substitute for preparedness.

RedneckHB · February 22, 2023 9:52AM

.

ctf_error_coins · February 22, 2023 10:01AM

DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

Fact:

I went to Home Depot yesterday and bought 2x4's in California

Guess how much I paid?

.

$2.97 ea

Goldminers · February 22, 2023 4:14PM

@ErrorsOnCoins
Based on a look around here, if they are nice 8 ft. versions, that $3 each was a good low price. Even finding them is still a bit of a challenge in some spots.

blitzdude · February 22, 2023 4:43PM

DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

@ErrorsOnCoins said:
Fact:

I went to Home Depot yesterday and bought 2x4's in California

Guess how much I paid?
$2.97 ea

Lumber is about the only commodity tanking faster than the gutter metal. Good thing because I still have 2 barns to build. LG!

BLUEJAYWAY · February 22, 2023 8:22PM

@cohodk said:
Wanna see egg prices collapse...stop buying them for a month. Surely we can all go a month without an omlette or cake.

Same thing happens with Orange Juice in the winter months when Florida has a freeze. OJ spikes. People resist the price increase for a few months and the price retreats.

BLUEJAYWAY · February 22, 2023 8:27PM

@derryb said:

@cohodk said:

@derryb said:
Has the FED fixed the inflation problem Congress created?

The more accurate question.

Very inaccurate. Congress did not create the FED's QE or easy money problems that naturally led to inflation. Congress's only liability is that it did not shut down the FED.

The FED is a 24/7 operation. Even "open" on holidays? The ATM is always stocked.

derryb · February 22, 2023 8:40PM

DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

"Gold investors are betting the Fed will continue to be negligent with its monetary policy. Without the Fed’s help, the free market would impose interest rate discipline on the Treasury and Congress." - RealInvestmentAdvice.com

RedneckHB · February 23, 2023 5:34AM

@derryb said:
"Gold investors are betting the Fed will continue to be negligent with its monetary policy. Without the Fed’s help, the free market would impose interest rate discipline on the Treasury and Congress." - RealInvestmentAdvice.com

Is the author saying gold is overvalued?

derryb · February 23, 2023 7:21AM

DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

@cohodk said:

@derryb said:
"Gold investors are betting the Fed will continue to be negligent with its monetary policy. Without the Fed’s help, the free market would impose interest rate discipline on the Treasury and Congress." - RealInvestmentAdvice.com

Is the author saying gold is overvalued?

You shoul read all of an article to get the whole picture. Typical of you to pick pieces and try to make them the whole story. One line later the author continues with:

_"The scatter plot below shows the same data in a different format. As shown, the correlation is high. Recently, as highlighted by the orange dots, the slope of the relationship has become more vertical. Essentially, gold prices are not rising or falling as much versus real yields as they did in the prior twenty years. This occurs because the relationship between gold and real yields is much less robust when real yields are positive, as they have been for the last year."
_

RedneckHB · February 23, 2023 1:09PM

I read the entire article. Udually an analyst will not take a narrow set of data, compare it with a broader set, and make claim. That's called pseudoscience. Which, I suppose after the last 3 years, is now widely accepted. Lol

It's like saying. "This always happens, except when it doesnt".

Were real yields positive prior to 2022. I seem to recall many on this forum saying real yields were negative because inflation was understated. Actually, those folk are saying the same now.

blitzdude · February 23, 2023 7:05PM

DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

Gutter down. RGDS!

dcarr · February 24, 2023 12:39AM

@blitzdude said:
Gutter down. RGDS!

So why do you still have silver ("gutter") ?
Just the other day in another thread you stated that your assets include silver (paper and physical).
But you incessantly complain about dropping silver prices (except when someone else is selling physical and you complain about high premiums).

If you hate silver that much, sell it all and move on.

derryb · February 24, 2023 7:29AM

DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

Another round of "when liars figure, figures lie:"

GoldFinger1969 · February 24, 2023 7:53AM

The PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) came in stronger than expected; this is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, more so than the better-known CPI.

Bond yields are up, further Fed rate hikes are being discounted, and stocks are down.

I have said for over a year that we are going to well over 5% on the Fed Funds and now there's a chance we approach 6%.

Fed officials speak later today. Stay tuned....

GoldFinger1969 · February 24, 2023 7:55AM

@BLUEJAYWAY said:

@cohodk said:
Wanna see egg prices collapse...stop buying them for a month. Surely we can all go a month without an omlette or cake.

Same thing happens with Orange Juice in the winter months when Florida has a freeze. OJ spikes. People resist the price increase for a few months and the price retreats.

The difference is that there are substitutes for orange juice. There is no substitute for eggs in baking/cooking.

RobM · February 24, 2023 2:28PM

@GoldFinger1969 said:
The difference is that there are substitutes for orange juice. There is no substitute for eggs in baking/cooking.

https://www.biggerbolderbaking.com/egg-substitutes-for-baking/

I'm not going to argue the appeal, but here's a list.

blitzdude · February 24, 2023 3:57PM

DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

@dcarr said:

@blitzdude said:
Gutter down. RGDS!

So why do you still have silver ("gutter") ?
Just the other day in another thread you stated that your assets include silver (paper and physical).
But you incessantly complain about dropping silver prices (except when someone else is selling physical and you complain about high premiums).

If you hate silver that much, sell it all and move on.

Gutter down even more! Pretty much every time you open your mouth and the price drops more. Just like Majik. THKS!

dcarr · February 24, 2023 4:57PM

@blitzdude said:

@dcarr said:

@blitzdude said:
Gutter down. RGDS!

So why do you still have silver ("gutter") ?
Just the other day in another thread you stated that your assets include silver (paper and physical).
But you incessantly complain about dropping silver prices (except when someone else is selling physical and you complain about high premiums).

If you hate silver that much, sell it all and move on.

Gutter down even more! Pretty much every time you open your mouth and the price drops more. Just like Majik. THKS!

So if I post enough times your SLV will be worthless ?

GoldFinger1969 · February 25, 2023 8:28AM

@RobM said:

@GoldFinger1969 said:
The difference is that there are substitutes for orange juice. There is no substitute for eggs in baking/cooking.
https://www.biggerbolderbaking.com/egg-substitutes-for-baking/
I'm not going to argue the appeal, but here's a list.

But most bakers and households don't use them. The demand for eggs is fairly ineleastic.

OPA · February 25, 2023 9:55AM

@dcarr said:

@blitzdude said:

@dcarr said:

@blitzdude said:
Gutter down. RGDS!

So why do you still have silver ("gutter") ?
Just the other day in another thread you stated that your assets include silver (paper and physical).
But you incessantly complain about dropping silver prices (except when someone else is selling physical and you complain about high premiums).

If you hate silver that much, sell it all and move on.

Gutter down even more! Pretty much every time you open your mouth and the price drops more. Just like Majik. THKS!

So if I post enough times your SLV will be worthless ?

Please stop posting

derryb · February 27, 2023 9:18AM

DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

or, stop reading.

JWP · February 28, 2023 7:42PM

Just a visit to the grocery store leaves you broke and feel like the economy is in trouble. i'd give it a 3 at best.

derryb · March 2, 2023 8:17AM

DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

Bankruptcy filings in US surge at fastest pace since 2009

RedneckHB · March 3, 2023 5:17AM

@derryb said:

Bankruptcy filings in US surge at fastest pace since 2009

Good to see the warning at the beginning of this as being an opinion piece. It seems to be politically biased.

But to your point, one should focus on the actual number of bankruptcies and relative to total number of companies.

The author touts the "good times" with the previous administration, yet it appears there were still many filings of public corporate bankruptcy

https://www.jonesday.com/en/insights/2020/02/the-year-in-bankruptcy-2019#:~:text=The number of public company,2008 and 211 in 2009.

The article cites 39 bankruptcies. That seems like a minuscule number compared to the total number of companies. And if the increase was from 10 to 20, this would be touted as a "doubling in bankruptcy filings". While true, it is a meaningless statistic, and usually cited to cause mistrust, anger, fear, discontentment and contempt.

streeter · March 3, 2023 7:49PM

@JWP said:
Just a visit to the grocery store leaves you broke and feel like the economy is in trouble. i'd give it a 3 at best.

So, last night I'm in Walmart. First of the month transfer payments would make you think that place would be humming. 8pm. Closes at 11pm. Store is virtually deserted. I go to pick up a prescription. Put about 10 items in top of cart. Self check out deserted. One checker open and checking out one person. I had two boxes of 410 which made me go through reg check out. 15 minutes later after that one person is finished, I'm up. That person's cart was $650+ dollars. Checker recognizes me and just apologizes for the wait and said that was the #1 cart for her day. My little 10 items were almost $70 dollars. Twice the cost of 3 yrs ago. The cost of stuff is unsustainable.
My economic model is always under revision but current conditions cannot continue for much longer.

RedneckHB · March 7, 2023 5:51AM

That pack a day habit of smokes in 1980 would be worth over $26,000 today generating over $100/month in interest. Now multiply that over a decade. Simple choices can reap huge rewards.

One bag of potato chips per month could be over $3000 in savings in 20 years

Be your own steward.

streeter · March 10, 2023 4:47AM

SVB ...Silicon Valley Bank, 16th largest in the US has just turtled. Probably will have to be absorbed by a TBTF bank.

Is this just the beginning? The free money decade is o.v.e.r. The FED is having to raise rates and those that don't understand and had a 'free money' business plan are going to get crushed.

Edit: higher interest rates usually crush gold and silver unless there is a flight to gold as a safe haven.

tincup · March 10, 2023 8:26AM

If I recall..... SVB was involved quite a bit in crypto?

Goldminers · March 10, 2023 9:06AM

.> @streeter said:

SVB ...Silicon Valley Bank, 16th largest in the US has just turtled. Probably will have to be absorbed by a TBTF bank.

Is this just the beginning? The free money decade is o.v.e.r. The FED is having to raise rates and those that don't understand and had a 'free money' business plan are going to get crushed.

Edit: higher interest rates usually crush gold and silver unless there is a flight to gold as a safe haven.

Rates actually dropped a bit last day or so from a peak.
Interesting times. The same day option trades in the stock market are causing instability as well.

ctf_error_coins · March 10, 2023 9:10AM

DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

Bought some more 2x4's at Home Depot which seemed to have bottomed out at $2.97 ea

Then I went to Big 5 and bought 2 pairs of Hi-Tec Hiking Boots for only $35 a pair. Price is 1/3 of what it was 20 years ago.

Huge deflation in certain products ....

TwoSides2aCoin · March 10, 2023 10:27AM

DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

From eggs to lumber. Who gets a cheap woodie wins.

blitzdude · March 10, 2023 2:24PM

DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

@TwoSides2aCoin said:
From eggs to lumber. Who gets a cheap woodie wins.

There will be a day in the not-too-distant future when even gutter metal will be cheap again. RGDS!

RedneckHB · March 11, 2023 4:37AM

@TwoSides2aCoin said:
From eggs to lumber. Who gets a cheap woodie wins.

5 dozen eggs at BJs for $14.97. Oh well, so much for the great egg crisis of 2023.

rte592 · March 14, 2023 8:26PM

There is a neighborhood cleanup in my area.
The metal scrappers and resellers are up and down the street collecting anything of value.
My neighbor had some steel bed rails out and I was headed to the store.
Had to go home swap out for the truck and pick up some scrap metal.
I always seem to have a use for angle iron and scrap metal pieces.
I probably should have driven around and collected more stuff.
Another neighbor had some 2x10 x 5 wood.
Fresh cut marks were probably 2x10x10-12 foot boards.
Slightly warped but I think I could use some of that as well.
I have a friend who has plenty of older wood, but this pile is literally 3 door down.
Still thinking about dragging that home.
One man's trans and all.
Back to the Egg dilemma, Sam's club tomorrow should have an 18 pack for $9.

blitzdude · March 15, 2023 5:31PM

DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

@rte592 said:
Back to the Egg dilemma, Sam's club tomorrow should have an 18 pack for $9. \

Only pulled 15 out of the coop tonight, sure seemed light but we did just get another blast of winter. That and I wouldn't be surprised if I missed a few. Just need a quick dip. Almost as sweet as the Au. RGDS!

derryb · March 15, 2023 5:56PM

DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

If eggs are anything like tomatoes, it's cheaper to not grow your own.

DNADave · March 15, 2023 5:59PM

https://www.facebook.com/reel/581991116984405?fs=e&s=TIeQ9V&mibextid=0NULKw

blitzdude · March 15, 2023 6:06PM

DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

@derryb said:
If eggs are anything like tomatoes, it's cheaper to not grow your own.

Just a little bit of "work". Miniscule financial costs, the girls pay for a months keep in approximately 5 days. That leaves 24.5 days of profit. Much better returns than the gutter I can honestly say and it's not even a conscious attempt to generate income. RGDS!

dcarr · March 15, 2023 11:39PM

@blitzdude said:

@derryb said:
If eggs are anything like tomatoes, it's cheaper to not grow your own.

Just a little bit of "work". Miniscule financial costs, the girls pay for a months keep in approximately 5 days. That leaves 24.5 days of profit. Much better returns than the gutter I can honestly say and it's not even a conscious attempt to generate income. RGDS!

More than just a "little" work, I suspect.
How are the eggs doing after a few months in the safe ?

derryb · March 16, 2023 11:26AM

DEFCON 3 - Looking to dump my dollars

The affect of rising interest rates on investments made by banks (with depositor funds.): What's a central bank to do?

Higashiyama · March 16, 2023 2:30PM

@derryb asked “The affect of rising interest rates on investments made by banks (with depositor funds.): What's a central bank to do?”

No doubt, they are in a bind. My guess is that they keeps rates unchanged next week.

Goldminers · March 16, 2023 2:34PM

What is a central bank to do? Print more money electronically out of thin air and loan it to banks for their securities that are underwater. They are the banks.

Then raise rates anyway. Problem solved.

This:

blitzdude · March 16, 2023 5:11PM

DEFCON 5 - FED has solved all the problems

@dcarr said:

@blitzdude said:

@derryb said:
If eggs are anything like tomatoes, it's cheaper to not grow your own.

Just a little bit of "work". Miniscule financial costs, the girls pay for a months keep in approximately 5 days. That leaves 24.5 days of profit. Much better returns than the gutter I can honestly say and it's not even a conscious attempt to generate income. RGDS!

More than just a "little" work, I suspect.
How are the eggs doing after a few months in the safe ?

No safe, no bunker, no doom and gloom. They either get swapped out for useful dollars to purchase other necessities or they get eaten with a few days. In The Commonwealth we call that #Livin RGDS!

carew4me · March 19, 2023 8:39AM

BlitzFool blowing his egg horn ...high on dried raccoon droppings...he is ready to barter!

dcarr · March 22, 2023 2:01AM

@blitzdude said:

@dcarr said:

@blitzdude said:

@derryb said:
If eggs are anything like tomatoes, it's cheaper to not grow your own.

Just a little bit of "work". Miniscule financial costs, the girls pay for a months keep in approximately 5 days. That leaves 24.5 days of profit. Much better returns than the gutter I can honestly say and it's not even a conscious attempt to generate income. RGDS!

More than just a "little" work, I suspect.
How are the eggs doing after a few months in the safe ?

No safe, no bunker, no doom and gloom. They either get swapped out for useful dollars to purchase other necessities or they get eaten with a few days. In The Commonwealth we call that #Livin RGDS!

Livin' day to day. Also known as living paycheck to paycheck like a lot of people.

RedneckHB · March 22, 2023 3:39AM

US Home Resales Jump by Most Since 2020, Ending Year-Long Slide https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-21/us-home-resales-snap-record-decline-with-biggest-jump-since-2020

dcarr · March 22, 2023 8:58AM

@cohodk said:
But, where is the economy? Seems everyone still has a job, car and home prices are softening a little, energy prices are lower. All good things for the consumer, no?

@cohodk said:
US Home Resales Jump by Most Since 2020, Ending Year-Long Slide https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-21/us-home-resales-snap-record-decline-with-biggest-jump-since-2020

Home prices going up and down at the same time ? I don't think so.
Home prices seem to be pretty flat right now.
But stagflation seems inevitable.

tincup · March 22, 2023 9:42AM

@cohodk said:
US Home Resales Jump by Most Since 2020, Ending Year-Long Slide https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-21/us-home-resales-snap-record-decline-with-biggest-jump-since-2020

Not sure what to make of the article.

Perhaps some of the ones who bought at higher prices... are now regretting the move and selling to get out? You know... the ones who bought houses sight unseen? and offering 10% above listing price? Just find it curious... something just does not quite make sense to me. (but that doesn't take much!!)

Where do you rate current US economic conditions?

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