@BuckHunter68 said:
..."range factor"...a term coined by guys that never played baseball beyond elementary school and are still waiting to touch their first breast...
Aaron Judge is an exceptional player on both sides. He is the most valuable daily player in the game. How anyone can dispute that is puzzling, but that's one of the truly great things about baseball. As a Red Sox fan, he is actually terrifying, 😆 🤣
very easily disputed. Ohtani this season is about 2/3rds the hitter Judge is. just for kicks and giggles, what is Judges ERA this season? how about his k/9?
Judge is having a fantastic season. even historic. Ohtani is doing something no one has EVER seen.
Again, I’d like to point out that it’s mostly because the league changed the rules - which is fine - but this is the first year anyone has ever had a chance to do it - especially since most organizations have, historically ‘forbid’ their pitchers from hitting upon drafting them.
Also, Mike Hampton hit 7 HR in 35 games started in early 2000’s (a pace of around 32) and there are many other pitchers who have had good hitting seasons in limited opportunities and at bats.
With the shortness of rosters and having so many pitchers anyway, maybe it will set a new trend? It’s a copycat world after all…
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@BuckHunter68 said:
..."range factor"...a term coined by guys that never played baseball beyond elementary school and are still waiting to touch their first breast...
Aaron Judge is an exceptional player on both sides. He is the most valuable daily player in the game. How anyone can dispute that is puzzling, but that's one of the truly great things about baseball. As a Red Sox fan, he is actually terrifying, 😆 🤣
very easily disputed. Ohtani this season is about 2/3rds the hitter Judge is. just for kicks and giggles, what is Judges ERA this season? how about his k/9?
Judge is having a fantastic season. even historic. Ohtani is doing something no one has EVER seen.
Again, I’d like to point out that it’s mostly because the league changed the rules - which is fine - but this is the first year anyone has ever had a chance to do it - especially since most organizations have, historically ‘forbid’ their pitchers from hitting upon drafting them.
Also, Mike Hampton hit 7 HR in 35 games started in early 2000’s (a pace of around 32) and there are many other pitchers who have had good hitting seasons in limited opportunities and at bats.
With the shortness of rosters and having so many pitchers anyway, maybe it will set a new trend? It’s a copycat world after all…
the rule change only affects game day for a pitcher. under the old rules, it may have taken away 1-2 PA per game pitched. the angels could have either decided to give up that 1 or 2 PA per start or put him in at 1b for the last few innings in a double switch.
as far as Hampton, that was a unicorn season for him. he hit almost half his career home runs that season. think brady anderson on a much more drastic scale.
I am pretty sure the DH has been in existence since 1973. why exactly is Ohtani the very first pitcher in all those years to have the "chance" to play DH on his off days and pitch one every 5 games?
He is in no way the first to have the "CHANCE" he is the first to have the ABILITY to do such a thing.
@BuckHunter68 said:
..."range factor"...a term coined by guys that never played baseball beyond elementary school and are still waiting to touch their first breast...
Aaron Judge is an exceptional player on both sides. He is the most valuable daily player in the game. How anyone can dispute that is puzzling, but that's one of the truly great things about baseball. As a Red Sox fan, he is actually terrifying, 😆 🤣
very easily disputed. Ohtani this season is about 2/3rds the hitter Judge is. just for kicks and giggles, what is Judges ERA this season? how about his k/9?
Judge is having a fantastic season. even historic. Ohtani is doing something no one has EVER seen.
Again, I’d like to point out that it’s mostly because the league changed the rules - which is fine - but this is the first year anyone has ever had a chance to do it - especially since most organizations have, historically ‘forbid’ their pitchers from hitting upon drafting them.
Also, Mike Hampton hit 7 HR in 35 games started in early 2000’s (a pace of around 32) and there are many other pitchers who have had good hitting seasons in limited opportunities and at bats.
With the shortness of rosters and having so many pitchers anyway, maybe it will set a new trend? It’s a copycat world after all…
the rule change only affects game day for a pitcher. under the old rules, it may have taken away 1-2 PA per game pitched. the angels could have either decided to give up that 1 or 2 PA per start or put him in at 1b for the last few innings in a double switch.
as far as Hampton, that was a unicorn season for him. he hit almost half his career home runs that season. think brady anderson on a much more drastic scale.
I am pretty sure the DH has been in existence since 1973. why exactly is Ohtani the very first pitcher in all those years to have the "chance" to play DH on his off days and pitch one every 5 games?
He is in no way the first to have the "CHANCE" he is the first to have the ABILITY to do such a thing.
I’m not completely sure as I am not up on all things Ohtani but I am pretty sure that it is written into his contract that he gets to both hit and pitch. In the early going, as I recall, Mike Scoscia wanted him to just pitch or just hit and he was referred to the contract.
That’s my memory of it, could be way off.
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@craig44 said:
very easily disputed. Ohtani this season is about 2/3rds the hitter Judge is. just for kicks and giggles, what is Judges ERA this season? how about his k/9?
Judge is having a fantastic season. even historic. Ohtani is doing something no one has EVER seen.
Again, I’d like to point out that it’s mostly because the league changed the rules - which is fine - but this is the first year anyone has ever had a chance to do it - especially since most organizations have, historically ‘forbid’ their pitchers from hitting upon drafting them.
Also, Mike Hampton hit 7 HR in 35 games started in early 2000’s (a pace of around 32) and there are many other pitchers who have had good hitting seasons in limited opportunities and at bats.
With the shortness of rosters and having so many pitchers anyway, maybe it will set a new trend? It’s a copycat world after all…
.
That's a HUGE stretch. I would say the rule change helped Ohtani's hitting numbers very marginally. He averaged 6 IP per game and taking into account that the home team doesn't bat in the ninth when winning, that would equate to about 1 plate appearance per game. So, we are talking about 30 additional plate appearances per season because of the rule. So, without the rule change, Ohtani would have 636 plate appearances this year instead of 666.
What the rule change does do is make Ohtani more **Valuable ** since you don't need to roster an extra hitter and can add another bullpen arm or a baserunning specialist.
Mike Hampton was an excellent hitter for being a pitcher - one of the best in his era. But, it must be pointed out that he had exactly zero home runs in 450 plate appearances before signing with Colorado in 2001. That Mile High air did wonders for him. Also of note, 2001 was the year that 2 players hit more dingers than Aaron Judge hit this year...... just sayin'
@1all said:
Mike Hampton was an excellent hitter for being a pitcher - one of the best in his era. But, it must be pointed out that he had exactly zero home runs in 450 plate appearances before signing with Colorado in 2001. That Mile High air did wonders for him. Also of note, 2001 was the year that 2 players hit more dingers than Aaron Judge hit this year...... just sayin'
I think he was a non preformer(hurt) in the last few years of his multi year contract. He stunk at end of his career.
@1all said:
Mike Hampton was an excellent hitter for being a pitcher - one of the best in his era. But, it must be pointed out that he had exactly zero home runs in 450 plate appearances before signing with Colorado in 2001. That Mile High air did wonders for him. Also of note, 2001 was the year that 2 players hit more dingers than Aaron Judge hit this year...... just sayin'
Cheap Hal probably won't even re-sign Judge. My guess is Judge will be on LA or SF most likely the former next year. He has enough class not to stick it to the NYY fans and avoid the NYM and is smart enough to stay away from the Angels.
"Cheap" Hal already offered him $213.5m that Judge turned down. The Yankees should thank him for that. He'll be 31 early next year and has missed tons of games in half his seasons.
I will never understand these Nostradamus type predictions. I just reread the above, I guess you are talking about his past. He has two straight injury free seasons. BTW I would say you could say the exact same thing regarding a large portion of free agents past and present. George Springer, Harper, etc. Injuries are a part of sports, not everyone is an ironman.
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Cheap Hal probably won't even re-sign Judge. My guess is Judge will be on LA or SF most likely the former next year. He has enough class not to stick it to the NYY fans and avoid the NYM and is smart enough to stay away from the Angels.
"Cheap" Hal already offered him $213.5m that Judge turned down. The Yankees should thank him for that. He'll be 31 early next year and has missed tons of games in half his seasons.
I will never understand these Nostradamus type predictions. I just reread the above, I guess you are talking about his past. He has two straight injury free seasons. BTW I would say you could say the exact same thing regarding a large portion of free agents past and present. George Springer, Harper, etc. Injuries are a part of sports, not everyone is an ironman.
He'll be 31. He's got a significant history of injuries. He's 6'7" and nearly 300lbs. I just think it's a safe bet he misses a lot of time over the course of his next contract.
Cheap Hal probably won't even re-sign Judge. My guess is Judge will be on LA or SF most likely the former next year. He has enough class not to stick it to the NYY fans and avoid the NYM and is smart enough to stay away from the Angels.
"Cheap" Hal already offered him $213.5m that Judge turned down. The Yankees should thank him for that. He'll be 31 early next year and has missed tons of games in half his seasons.
I will never understand these Nostradamus type predictions. I just reread the above, I guess you are talking about his past. He has two straight injury free seasons. BTW I would say you could say the exact same thing regarding a large portion of free agents past and present. George Springer, Harper, etc. Injuries are a part of sports, not everyone is an ironman.
He'll be 31. He's got a significant history of injuries. He's 6'7" and nearly 300lbs. I just think it's a safe bet he misses a lot of time over the course of his next contract.
Judge has had 2 straight injury free seasons. His weight matches his height. But yes I would assume eventually he will have feet/foot problems, like most big men that play sports.
You can say the exact same thing about half of the free agents every year. Should the Phillies not have gone after Harper?
To be clear if you owned or managed the Yankees you would not sign Judge to a long term contract? I would.
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Well then I guess you would lose Judge. I would give him up to 8 years and if he can't produce very well the last couple I can live with that. Plus you can move him to 1B or DH later in his career.
Frank Howard is a good comp for weight and height.
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@Cakes said:
Well then I guess you would lose Judge. I would give him up to 8 years and if he can't produce very well the last couple I can live with that. Plus you can move him to 1B or DH later in his career.
Frank Howard is a good comp for weight and height.
Boog Powell may fit that comparison as well.
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without looking, I would guess you could count the number of 280 lb outfielders in the history of the game on 2 hands. possibly one. there is a reason for that...
@craig44 said:
without looking, I would guess you could count the number of 280 lb outfielders in the history of the game on 2 hands. possibly one. there is a reason for that...
I would guess most of the giant sized athletes like him are pushed into Football or Basketball.
Just listing his weight seems like a deliberate attempt to not add any context to the comment. In reality he is 6' 7" and carries the weight well. It looks like he is shredded and has very little body fat. If he was 280, 6' 1" , with 20% body fat I would be much more concerned.
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@craig44 said:
without looking, I would guess you could count the number of 280 lb outfielders in the history of the game on 2 hands. possibly one. there is a reason for that...
I would guess most of the giant sized athletes like him are pushed into Football or Basketball.
Just listing his weight seems like a deliberate attempt to not add any context to the comment. In reality he is 6' 7" and carries the weight well. It looks like he is shredded and has very little body fat. If he was 280, 6' 1" , with 20% body fat I would be much more concerned.
the issue is not what kind of weight (fat or muscle) it is the weight period. His Knees, ankles and feet will give out well before a lighter athlete. It is just physiology and you cant beat it. 40-year-old men do not run around the outfield at 280.
Look at when Centers in Basketball wear down and most of them don't weigh 280. David Ortiz was just a DH for the vast majority of his career and his feet were his ultimate downfall. look at all the problems Pujols has had in the 2nd half of his career with his feet.
I agree, Judge is a ripped 280 at 30. as he pushes further into his 30s, that number will climb and he will be over 300 no doubt. he may be over 280 right now as that is just his listed weight and those are often skewed lighter.
@craig44 said:
without looking, I would guess you could count the number of 280 lb outfielders in the history of the game on 2 hands. possibly one. there is a reason for that...
@craig44 said:
without looking, I would guess you could count the number of 280 lb outfielders in the history of the game on 2 hands. possibly one. there is a reason for that...
I would guess most of the giant sized athletes like him are pushed into Football or Basketball.
Just listing his weight seems like a deliberate attempt to not add any context to the comment. In reality he is 6' 7" and carries the weight well. It looks like he is shredded and has very little body fat. If he was 280, 6' 1" , with 20% body fat I would be much more concerned.
the issue is not what kind of weight (fat or muscle) it is the weight period. His Knees, ankles and feet will give out well before a lighter athlete. It is just physiology and you cant beat it. 40-year-old men do not run around the outfield at 280.
Look at when Centers in Basketball wear down and most of them don't weigh 280. David Ortiz was just a DH for the vast majority of his career and his feet were his ultimate downfall. look at all the problems Pujols has had in the 2nd half of his career with his feet.
I agree, Judge is a ripped 280 at 30. as he pushes further into his 30s, that number will climb and he will be over 300 no doubt. he may be over 280 right now as that is just his listed weight and those are often skewed lighter.
His legs/feet will give out due to the weight.
I would certainly sign both Ortiz and Pujols at the age of 30 to long term deals and they carry more extra weight/fat.
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@craig44 said:
without looking, I would guess you could count the number of 280 lb outfielders in the history of the game on 2 hands. possibly one. there is a reason for that...
I would guess most of the giant sized athletes like him are pushed into Football or Basketball.
Just listing his weight seems like a deliberate attempt to not add any context to the comment. In reality he is 6' 7" and carries the weight well. It looks like he is shredded and has very little body fat. If he was 280, 6' 1" , with 20% body fat I would be much more concerned.
the issue is not what kind of weight (fat or muscle) it is the weight period. His Knees, ankles and feet will give out well before a lighter athlete. It is just physiology and you cant beat it. 40-year-old men do not run around the outfield at 280.
Look at when Centers in Basketball wear down and most of them don't weigh 280. David Ortiz was just a DH for the vast majority of his career and his feet were his ultimate downfall. look at all the problems Pujols has had in the 2nd half of his career with his feet.
I agree, Judge is a ripped 280 at 30. as he pushes further into his 30s, that number will climb and he will be over 300 no doubt. he may be over 280 right now as that is just his listed weight and those are often skewed lighter.
His legs/feet will give out due to the weight.
As much as it pains me to agree with you as I'd like it not to be the case, you are correct. Gravity is fundamental force
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
@craig44 said:
without looking, I would guess you could count the number of 280 lb outfielders in the history of the game on 2 hands. possibly one. there is a reason for that...
I would guess most of the giant sized athletes like him are pushed into Football or Basketball.
Just listing his weight seems like a deliberate attempt to not add any context to the comment. In reality he is 6' 7" and carries the weight well. It looks like he is shredded and has very little body fat. If he was 280, 6' 1" , with 20% body fat I would be much more concerned.
the issue is not what kind of weight (fat or muscle) it is the weight period. His Knees, ankles and feet will give out well before a lighter athlete. It is just physiology and you cant beat it. 40-year-old men do not run around the outfield at 280.
Look at when Centers in Basketball wear down and most of them don't weigh 280. David Ortiz was just a DH for the vast majority of his career and his feet were his ultimate downfall. look at all the problems Pujols has had in the 2nd half of his career with his feet.
I agree, Judge is a ripped 280 at 30. as he pushes further into his 30s, that number will climb and he will be over 300 no doubt. he may be over 280 right now as that is just his listed weight and those are often skewed lighter.
His legs/feet will give out due to the weight.
As much as it pains me to agree with you as I'd like it not to be the case, you are correct. Gravity is fundamental force
Well once again you are another owner that would lose Judge. I would give him up to 8 years and if he can't produce very well the last couple I can live with that. Plus you can move him to 1B or DH later in his career.
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@craig44 said:
without looking, I would guess you could count the number of 280 lb outfielders in the history of the game on 2 hands. possibly one. there is a reason for that...
If in 1975 you had told anyone that the Yankees centerfielder weighed more than Mean Joe Greene and Ed Too Tall Jones, they would have thought you were from Mars. If you said that 285 pound guy also stole 16 bases and batted leadoff...then they would think that is not possible at all and probably figure you were being a jerk or jokester.
Judge is a freak of nature, a six foot seven 285 pound athlete that is also highly skilled to be able to play baseball at the highest level.
Judge has been injury prone for sure, but it doesn't necessarily mean it is because of his weight or that he will succumb to injury faster due to his weight.
CC Sabathia weighed 300 pounds and his legs took a pounding and he made it to age 38.
Shaq weighed over 300 pounds and ran up and down a court in a more physical game and he lasted a long time playing until age 38 in a sport where playing to that age is hard for anyone.
Thing is, 285 pound guys in the past were in that stratosphere due to different body composition and most likely not athletic. Judge, like said above, is far more athletic and muscular...and that makes a difference because you are more apt/capable to control and distribute your weight efficiently more so than a 285 pound tub of goo.
In baseball, it probably isn't smart to sign any player to a long term deal at age 31. It also probably isn't smart to give "one" player so much money either since their impact on each game is only a small percentage.
But, he will get paid above the current going rate...and some team will make it a long term deal because they can afford it.
He will still be good for several more years. Unless it is a ten year deal, a team like the Yankees won't feel the pinch at all if he tanks in the fifth year of a six year contract.
@craig44 said:
without looking, I would guess you could count the number of 280 lb outfielders in the history of the game on 2 hands. possibly one. there is a reason for that...
I would guess most of the giant sized athletes like him are pushed into Football or Basketball.
Just listing his weight seems like a deliberate attempt to not add any context to the comment. In reality he is 6' 7" and carries the weight well. It looks like he is shredded and has very little body fat. If he was 280, 6' 1" , with 20% body fat I would be much more concerned.
the issue is not what kind of weight (fat or muscle) it is the weight period. His Knees, ankles and feet will give out well before a lighter athlete. It is just physiology and you cant beat it. 40-year-old men do not run around the outfield at 280.
Look at when Centers in Basketball wear down and most of them don't weigh 280. David Ortiz was just a DH for the vast majority of his career and his feet were his ultimate downfall. look at all the problems Pujols has had in the 2nd half of his career with his feet.
I agree, Judge is a ripped 280 at 30. as he pushes further into his 30s, that number will climb and he will be over 300 no doubt. he may be over 280 right now as that is just his listed weight and those are often skewed lighter.
His legs/feet will give out due to the weight.
I would certainly sign both Ortiz and Pujols at the age of 30 to long term deals and they carry more extra weight/fat.
Pujols was one of the worst long term contracts ever and Ortiz dropped pretty significantly after age 32. He also had a very questionable season at age 40. I remember it very well. his feet were a constant issue and he really couldnt run/move any more
@craig44 said:
without looking, I would guess you could count the number of 280 lb outfielders in the history of the game on 2 hands. possibly one. there is a reason for that...
If in 1975 you had told anyone that the Yankees centerfielder weighed more than Mean Joe Greene and Ed Too Tall Jones, they would have thought you were from Mars. If you said that 285 pound guy also stole 16 bases and batted leadoff...then they would think that is not possible at all and probably figure you were being a jerk or jokester.
Judge is a freak of nature, a six foot seven 285 pound athlete that is also highly skilled to be able to play baseball at the highest level.
Judge has been injury prone for sure, but it doesn't necessarily mean it is because of his weight or that he will succumb to injury faster due to his weight.
CC Sabathia weighed 300 pounds and his legs took a pounding and he made it to age 38.
Shaq weighed over 300 pounds and ran up and down a court in a more physical game and he lasted a long time playing until age 38 in a sport where playing to that age is hard for anyone.
Thing is, 285 pound guys in the past were in that stratosphere due to different body composition and most likely not athletic. Judge, like said above, is far more athletic and muscular...and that makes a difference because you are more apt/capable to control and distribute your weight efficiently more so than a 285 pound tub of goo.
In baseball, it probably isn't smart to sign any player to a long term deal at age 31. It also probably isn't smart to give "one" player so much money either since their impact on each game is only a small percentage.
But, he will get paid above the current going rate...and some team will make it a long term deal because they can afford it.
He will still be good for several more years. Unless it is a ten year deal, a team like the Yankees won't feel the pinch at all if he tanks in the fifth year of a six year contract.
285 pound players, especially in Baseball are unicorns. that is why the few that ever did it are on the tip of our tongues. it is so rare. Same with Shaq. guys playing basketball at 285 or over 300 are very few and far between.
take your example CC. He had a pretty big dropoff after his age 31 season (next year is Judges age 31 season). he only missed time, only threw 200+ innings 2x, had 4 really bad seasons and was generally an average pitcher after age 31. ERA+ 101. Shaq after age 32 was a shell of himself. points way down, minutes down missed lots of time due to injury.
ask any orthopedic specialist the impact weight has on one's knees. when you walk, the pressure on your knees is 3-6x body weight. that is even greater when running, jumping etc. every 10 pounds one adds is 30-60 lbs of pressure on the knees. at 285, judge is already putting 225-450 more lbs on each knee than a 210 pound player. every single step.
that is why big guys dont play as long as smaller guys. maybe he will be the 1 in 10MM, but i doubt it.
@craig44 said:
without looking, I would guess you could count the number of 280 lb outfielders in the history of the game on 2 hands. possibly one. there is a reason for that...
I would guess most of the giant sized athletes like him are pushed into Football or Basketball.
Just listing his weight seems like a deliberate attempt to not add any context to the comment. In reality he is 6' 7" and carries the weight well. It looks like he is shredded and has very little body fat. If he was 280, 6' 1" , with 20% body fat I would be much more concerned.
the issue is not what kind of weight (fat or muscle) it is the weight period. His Knees, ankles and feet will give out well before a lighter athlete. It is just physiology and you cant beat it. 40-year-old men do not run around the outfield at 280.
Look at when Centers in Basketball wear down and most of them don't weigh 280. David Ortiz was just a DH for the vast majority of his career and his feet were his ultimate downfall. look at all the problems Pujols has had in the 2nd half of his career with his feet.
I agree, Judge is a ripped 280 at 30. as he pushes further into his 30s, that number will climb and he will be over 300 no doubt. he may be over 280 right now as that is just his listed weight and those are often skewed lighter.
His legs/feet will give out due to the weight.
I would certainly sign both Ortiz and Pujols at the age of 30 to long term deals and they carry more extra weight/fat.
Pujols was one of the worst long term contracts ever and Ortiz dropped pretty significantly after age 32. He also had a very questionable season at age 40. I remember it very well. his feet were a constant issue and he really couldnt run/move any more
I am advocating the Yankees sign Judge to an 8 year deal.
That's not true about Pujols, maybe they gave him more money than he deserved but his numbers show he produced.
Age 31 37 HR 99 RBI MVP 5
Age 32 30 HR 105 RBI MVP 17
Age 33 17 HR 64 RBI
Age 34 28 HR 105 RBI MVP 17
Age 35 40 HR 95 RBI
Age 36 31 HR 119 RBI
Age 37 23 HR 101 RBI
Age 38 19 HR 64 RBI
You should be ashamed to compare the body of Judge to Ortiz! Please use an apples to apples comparison.
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@craig44 said:
without looking, I would guess you could count the number of 280 lb outfielders in the history of the game on 2 hands. possibly one. there is a reason for that...
I would guess most of the giant sized athletes like him are pushed into Football or Basketball.
Just listing his weight seems like a deliberate attempt to not add any context to the comment. In reality he is 6' 7" and carries the weight well. It looks like he is shredded and has very little body fat. If he was 280, 6' 1" , with 20% body fat I would be much more concerned.
the issue is not what kind of weight (fat or muscle) it is the weight period. His Knees, ankles and feet will give out well before a lighter athlete. It is just physiology and you cant beat it. 40-year-old men do not run around the outfield at 280.
Look at when Centers in Basketball wear down and most of them don't weigh 280. David Ortiz was just a DH for the vast majority of his career and his feet were his ultimate downfall. look at all the problems Pujols has had in the 2nd half of his career with his feet.
I agree, Judge is a ripped 280 at 30. as he pushes further into his 30s, that number will climb and he will be over 300 no doubt. he may be over 280 right now as that is just his listed weight and those are often skewed lighter.
His legs/feet will give out due to the weight.
I would certainly sign both Ortiz and Pujols at the age of 30 to long term deals and they carry more extra weight/fat.
Pujols was one of the worst long term contracts ever and Ortiz dropped pretty significantly after age 32. He also had a very questionable season at age 40. I remember it very well. his feet were a constant issue and he really couldnt run/move any more
Respectfully does your argument contain any data or facts or is this more opinion based?
I am pretty sure Boston thought otherwise. Here is Ortiz's final 4 seasons:
@craig44 said:
without looking, I would guess you could count the number of 280 lb outfielders in the history of the game on 2 hands. possibly one. there is a reason for that...
I would guess most of the giant sized athletes like him are pushed into Football or Basketball.
Just listing his weight seems like a deliberate attempt to not add any context to the comment. In reality he is 6' 7" and carries the weight well. It looks like he is shredded and has very little body fat. If he was 280, 6' 1" , with 20% body fat I would be much more concerned.
the issue is not what kind of weight (fat or muscle) it is the weight period. His Knees, ankles and feet will give out well before a lighter athlete. It is just physiology and you cant beat it. 40-year-old men do not run around the outfield at 280.
Look at when Centers in Basketball wear down and most of them don't weigh 280. David Ortiz was just a DH for the vast majority of his career and his feet were his ultimate downfall. look at all the problems Pujols has had in the 2nd half of his career with his feet.
I agree, Judge is a ripped 280 at 30. as he pushes further into his 30s, that number will climb and he will be over 300 no doubt. he may be over 280 right now as that is just his listed weight and those are often skewed lighter.
His legs/feet will give out due to the weight.
I would certainly sign both Ortiz and Pujols at the age of 30 to long term deals and they carry more extra weight/fat.
Pujols was one of the worst long term contracts ever and Ortiz dropped pretty significantly after age 32. He also had a very questionable season at age 40. I remember it very well. his feet were a constant issue and he really couldnt run/move any more
Respectfully does your argument contain any data or facts or is this more opinion based?
I am pretty sure Boston thought otherwise. Here is Ortiz's final 4 seasons:
@craig44 said:
without looking, I would guess you could count the number of 280 lb outfielders in the history of the game on 2 hands. possibly one. there is a reason for that...
I would guess most of the giant sized athletes like him are pushed into Football or Basketball.
Just listing his weight seems like a deliberate attempt to not add any context to the comment. In reality he is 6' 7" and carries the weight well. It looks like he is shredded and has very little body fat. If he was 280, 6' 1" , with 20% body fat I would be much more concerned.
the issue is not what kind of weight (fat or muscle) it is the weight period. His Knees, ankles and feet will give out well before a lighter athlete. It is just physiology and you cant beat it. 40-year-old men do not run around the outfield at 280.
Look at when Centers in Basketball wear down and most of them don't weigh 280. David Ortiz was just a DH for the vast majority of his career and his feet were his ultimate downfall. look at all the problems Pujols has had in the 2nd half of his career with his feet.
I agree, Judge is a ripped 280 at 30. as he pushes further into his 30s, that number will climb and he will be over 300 no doubt. he may be over 280 right now as that is just his listed weight and those are often skewed lighter.
His legs/feet will give out due to the weight.
I would certainly sign both Ortiz and Pujols at the age of 30 to long term deals and they carry more extra weight/fat.
Pujols was one of the worst long term contracts ever and Ortiz dropped pretty significantly after age 32. He also had a very questionable season at age 40. I remember it very well. his feet were a constant issue and he really couldnt run/move any more
I am advocating the Yankees sign Judge to an 8 year deal.
That's not true about Pujols, maybe they gave him more money than he deserved but his numbers show he produced.
Age 31 37 HR 99 RBI MVP 5
Age 32 30 HR 105 RBI MVP 17
Age 33 17 HR 64 RBI
Age 34 28 HR 105 RBI MVP 17
Age 35 40 HR 95 RBI
Age 36 31 HR 119 RBI
Age 37 23 HR 101 RBI
Age 38 19 HR 64 RBI
You should be ashamed to compare the body of Judge to Ortiz! Please use an apples to apples comparison.
Again, lets please not get into using RBI as an individual metric. it is not. for the life of the LAA contract Albert was Pretty abysmal and hamstrung the GMs salary structure. This is not just my thoughts, it is an almost universally held belief. For the length of the contract, which i believe started after his age 31 season:
OBP .311 SLG .448 OPS .758 OPS+ 108 and he had 181 GIDP!!!
just a terrible performance for tons and tons of money. and lots and lots of foot problems...
like I said, it doesnt matter how the weight is distributed. Yes, Judge is ripped, Ortiz a puddle of pudding, but it is exactly the same as which weighs more, 100lbs of feathers or 100lbs of bricks. they weigh the exact same. and the knee joint does not care how it is distributed.
@craig44 said:
without looking, I would guess you could count the number of 280 lb outfielders in the history of the game on 2 hands. possibly one. there is a reason for that...
I would guess most of the giant sized athletes like him are pushed into Football or Basketball.
Just listing his weight seems like a deliberate attempt to not add any context to the comment. In reality he is 6' 7" and carries the weight well. It looks like he is shredded and has very little body fat. If he was 280, 6' 1" , with 20% body fat I would be much more concerned.
the issue is not what kind of weight (fat or muscle) it is the weight period. His Knees, ankles and feet will give out well before a lighter athlete. It is just physiology and you cant beat it. 40-year-old men do not run around the outfield at 280.
Look at when Centers in Basketball wear down and most of them don't weigh 280. David Ortiz was just a DH for the vast majority of his career and his feet were his ultimate downfall. look at all the problems Pujols has had in the 2nd half of his career with his feet.
I agree, Judge is a ripped 280 at 30. as he pushes further into his 30s, that number will climb and he will be over 300 no doubt. he may be over 280 right now as that is just his listed weight and those are often skewed lighter.
His legs/feet will give out due to the weight.
I would certainly sign both Ortiz and Pujols at the age of 30 to long term deals and they carry more extra weight/fat.
Pujols was one of the worst long term contracts ever and Ortiz dropped pretty significantly after age 32. He also had a very questionable season at age 40. I remember it very well. his feet were a constant issue and he really couldnt run/move any more
I am advocating the Yankees sign Judge to an 8 year deal.
That's not true about Pujols, maybe they gave him more money than he deserved but his numbers show he produced.
Age 31 37 HR 99 RBI MVP 5
Age 32 30 HR 105 RBI MVP 17
Age 33 17 HR 64 RBI
Age 34 28 HR 105 RBI MVP 17
Age 35 40 HR 95 RBI
Age 36 31 HR 119 RBI
Age 37 23 HR 101 RBI
Age 38 19 HR 64 RBI
You should be ashamed to compare the body of Judge to Ortiz! Please use an apples to apples comparison.
Again, lets please not get into using RBI as an individual metric. it is not. for the life of the LAA contract Albert was Pretty abysmal and hamstrung the GMs salary structure. This is not just my thoughts, it is an almost universally held belief. For the length of the contract, which i believe started after his age 31 season:
OBP .311 SLG .448 OPS .758 OPS+ 108 and he had 181 GIDP!!!
just a terrible performance for tons and tons of money. and lots and lots of foot problems...
like I said, it doesnt matter how the weight is distributed. Yes, Judge is ripped, Ortiz a puddle of pudding, but it is exactly the same as which weighs more, 100lbs of feathers or 100lbs of bricks. they weigh the exact same. and the knee joint does not care how it is distributed.
Paying him more than he is worth is not the point, it was about health later in their careers. You said " Ortiz dropped pretty significantly after age 32." and that just isn't true regardless of which metric you use. The numbers clearly show he played much better than you give him credit for and at age 40 he had an MVP type season.
Your weight logic is flawed, of course how it's distributed matters.
In the late seventies you would have been the GM or scout that said Cal Ripken Jr. should not play SS, that he should be a 3B.
Times change and bigger players have proven they can have long. productive careers. I repeat most of the large men choose Football or Basketball but that could change as CTE continues to increase. Frank Thomas would never have played 19 seasons in the NFL.
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@craig44 said:
without looking, I would guess you could count the number of 280 lb outfielders in the history of the game on 2 hands. possibly one. there is a reason for that...
If in 1975 you had told anyone that the Yankees centerfielder weighed more than Mean Joe Greene and Ed Too Tall Jones, they would have thought you were from Mars. If you said that 285 pound guy also stole 16 bases and batted leadoff...then they would think that is not possible at all and probably figure you were being a jerk or jokester.
Judge is a freak of nature, a six foot seven 285 pound athlete that is also highly skilled to be able to play baseball at the highest level.
Judge has been injury prone for sure, but it doesn't necessarily mean it is because of his weight or that he will succumb to injury faster due to his weight.
CC Sabathia weighed 300 pounds and his legs took a pounding and he made it to age 38.
Shaq weighed over 300 pounds and ran up and down a court in a more physical game and he lasted a long time playing until age 38 in a sport where playing to that age is hard for anyone.
Thing is, 285 pound guys in the past were in that stratosphere due to different body composition and most likely not athletic. Judge, like said above, is far more athletic and muscular...and that makes a difference because you are more apt/capable to control and distribute your weight efficiently more so than a 285 pound tub of goo.
In baseball, it probably isn't smart to sign any player to a long term deal at age 31. It also probably isn't smart to give "one" player so much money either since their impact on each game is only a small percentage.
But, he will get paid above the current going rate...and some team will make it a long term deal because they can afford it.
He will still be good for several more years. Unless it is a ten year deal, a team like the Yankees won't feel the pinch at all if he tanks in the fifth year of a six year contract.
285 pound players, especially in Baseball are unicorns. that is why the few that ever did it are on the tip of our tongues. it is so rare. Same with Shaq. guys playing basketball at 285 or over 300 are very few and far between.
take your example CC. He had a pretty big dropoff after his age 31 season (next year is Judges age 31 season). he only missed time, only threw 200+ innings 2x, had 4 really bad seasons and was generally an average pitcher after age 31. ERA+ 101. Shaq after age 32 was a shell of himself. points way down, minutes down missed lots of time due to injury.
ask any orthopedic specialist the impact weight has on one's knees. when you walk, the pressure on your knees is 3-6x body weight. that is even greater when running, jumping etc. every 10 pounds one adds is 30-60 lbs of pressure on the knees. at 285, judge is already putting 225-450 more lbs on each knee than a 210 pound player. every single step.
that is why big guys dont play as long as smaller guys. maybe he will be the 1 in 10MM, but i doubt it.
@craig44 said:
without looking, I would guess you could count the number of 280 lb outfielders in the history of the game on 2 hands. possibly one. there is a reason for that...
I would guess most of the giant sized athletes like him are pushed into Football or Basketball.
Just listing his weight seems like a deliberate attempt to not add any context to the comment. In reality he is 6' 7" and carries the weight well. It looks like he is shredded and has very little body fat. If he was 280, 6' 1" , with 20% body fat I would be much more concerned.
the issue is not what kind of weight (fat or muscle) it is the weight period. His Knees, ankles and feet will give out well before a lighter athlete. It is just physiology and you cant beat it. 40-year-old men do not run around the outfield at 280.
Look at when Centers in Basketball wear down and most of them don't weigh 280. David Ortiz was just a DH for the vast majority of his career and his feet were his ultimate downfall. look at all the problems Pujols has had in the 2nd half of his career with his feet.
I agree, Judge is a ripped 280 at 30. as he pushes further into his 30s, that number will climb and he will be over 300 no doubt. he may be over 280 right now as that is just his listed weight and those are often skewed lighter.
His legs/feet will give out due to the weight.
I would certainly sign both Ortiz and Pujols at the age of 30 to long term deals and they carry more extra weight/fat.
Pujols was one of the worst long term contracts ever and Ortiz dropped pretty significantly after age 32. He also had a very questionable season at age 40. I remember it very well. his feet were a constant issue and he really couldnt run/move any more
I am advocating the Yankees sign Judge to an 8 year deal.
That's not true about Pujols, maybe they gave him more money than he deserved but his numbers show he produced.
Age 31 37 HR 99 RBI MVP 5
Age 32 30 HR 105 RBI MVP 17
Age 33 17 HR 64 RBI
Age 34 28 HR 105 RBI MVP 17
Age 35 40 HR 95 RBI
Age 36 31 HR 119 RBI
Age 37 23 HR 101 RBI
Age 38 19 HR 64 RBI
You should be ashamed to compare the body of Judge to Ortiz! Please use an apples to apples comparison.
Again, lets please not get into using RBI as an individual metric. it is not. for the life of the LAA contract Albert was Pretty abysmal and hamstrung the GMs salary structure. This is not just my thoughts, it is an almost universally held belief. For the length of the contract, which i believe started after his age 31 season:
OBP .311 SLG .448 OPS .758 OPS+ 108 and he had 181 GIDP!!!
just a terrible performance for tons and tons of money. and lots and lots of foot problems...
like I said, it doesnt matter how the weight is distributed. Yes, Judge is ripped, Ortiz a puddle of pudding, but it is exactly the same as which weighs more, 100lbs of feathers or 100lbs of bricks. they weigh the exact same. and the knee joint does not care how it is distributed.
Paying him more than he is worth is not the point, it was about health later in their careers. You said " Ortiz dropped pretty significantly after age 32." and that just isn't true regardless of which metric you use. The numbers clearly show he played much better than you give him credit for and at age 40 he had an MVP type season.
Your weight logic is flawed, of course how it's distributed matters.
In the late seventies you would have been the GM or scout that said Cal Ripken Jr. should not play SS, that he should be a 3B.
Times change and bigger players have proven they can have long. productive careers. I repeat most of the large men choose Football or Basketball but that could change as CTE continues to increase. Frank Thomas would never have played 19 seasons in the NFL.
To address your Ortiz concerns.
I already mentioned he had a very "suspect" final season. Having his second best year as an extremely hobbled 40 year old.
beyond that "special" season, there was a significant drop off for the rest of his career after about age 31or 32. here are the numbers from the time he arived in Boston through age 31:
OBP: .402, SLG: .612, OPS: 1.014, OPS+ 156 He also had single seasons of 41, 47 and 54 HR.
From Age 32 to 39:
OBP .372, SLG .534, OPS .906, OPS+ 139
getting on base and hitting the ball with power (the 2 most important things a hitter can do) were both significantly down for Ortiz. the Red Sox are the local team where I live so I have seen the vast majority of Ortiz's career play out in front of me and I heard all the local talking heads on TV and Radio spew on about him. I remember there were even those talking about trading him.
You are clearly not understanding my concerns about athletes' weight and their general lack of performance if they are heavy. As far as your point about the distribution of weight and its impact on players knees, whatever weight is above the knee joint will affect the health of the joint. just ask any orthopedic specialist. now, I will admit defeat if Aaron Judge has GIANT cankles and is carrying 80lbs on each cankle. now that would be good weight distribution for knee joint health. beyond that, it doesn't matter if you have a giant gut like CC or linebacker shoulders and arms like Judge, all that weight is above the knee so it is adding extra stress to the joint that a lighter player would not experience.
yes, athletes are getting bigger, but not nearly as big as Judge. 285lbs is just too much. Just look at the track record. There isnt much of one, because players that large do not play long generally. Very few have, but they are memorable because they are the exception not the rule. taking Judge's past injury history into account, I wouldn't bet on him being the one to be an exception.
Your understanding of human anatomy is flawed. Do you really think an Orthopedic surgeon wouldn't point out is all relative to height and weight? Of course he would, all body types are different.
Weight is not weight, it depends on how it's distributed. Trust me his knees, ankles, feet, etc. are much larger than Pujols or Ortiz and can carry more weight.
If you cannot understand the difference between a Toyota Tundra and a Toyota Tacoma we can just agree to disagree.
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@Cakes said:
Your understanding of human anatomy is flawed. Do you really think an Orthopedic surgeon wouldn't point out is all relative to height and weight? Of course he would, all body types are different.
Weight is not weight, it depends on how it's distributed. Trust me his knees, ankles, feet, etc. are much larger than Pujols or Ortiz and can carry more weight.
If you cannot understand the difference between a Toyota Tundra and a Toyota Tacoma we can just agree to disagree.
@Cakes said:
Your understanding of human anatomy is flawed. Do you really think an Orthopedic surgeon wouldn't point out is all relative to height and weight? Of course he would, all body types are different.
Weight is not weight, it depends on how it's distributed. Trust me his knees, ankles, feet, etc. are much larger than Pujols or Ortiz and can carry more weight.
If you cannot understand the difference between a Toyota Tundra and a Toyota Tacoma we can just agree to disagree.
Is it ‘undr’ and ‘acom’ ???
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@Cakes said:
Your understanding of human anatomy is flawed. Do you really think an Orthopedic surgeon wouldn't point out is all relative to height and weight? Of course he would, all body types are different.
Weight is not weight, it depends on how it's distributed. Trust me his knees, ankles, feet, etc. are much larger than Pujols or Ortiz and can carry more weight.
If you cannot understand the difference between a Toyota Tundra and a Toyota Tacoma we can just agree to disagree.
you are really not getting this...
Ditto
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A long term contract for Judge will be a disaster for whatever team signs him. He will miss games due to injuries in the first 3 years of the contract and once he turns 35, he will either stop playing well (like Pujols, Miggie, etc) or always be injured and never on the field.
Baseball and basketball are the sports that seem to pay for past performance which I guess is the power of guaranteed contracts.
I think during the last 4 years of his contract (I assume he will get a contract for 6 or more years) he will average less than 120 games played per year and have less than 8 total WAR over those 4 seasons. That said, if he stays healthy, I think his next 2 years will be very good but in the future his contract will hamper his team the same way Pujols' did to the Angels and Cabrera's has for the Tigers. You can't discount the opportunity cost to the team for a highly paid, nonperforming slugger.
Now if a team could sign him to a 3 year deal with astronomical yearly salaries, I think that could be a win for the team but would still be risky due to Judge's injury history and age. I don't think there is any reason Judge would agree to that kind of deal though.
@fergie23 said:
A long term contract for Judge will be a disaster for whatever team signs him. He will miss games due to injuries in the first 3 years of the contract and once he turns 35, he will either stop playing well (like Pujols, Miggie, etc) or always be injured and never on the field.
Baseball and basketball are the sports that seem to pay for past performance which I guess is the power of guaranteed contracts.
I think during the last 4 years of his contract (I assume he will get a contract for 6 or more years) he will average less than 120 games played per year and have less than 8 total WAR over those 4 seasons. That said, if he stays healthy, I think his next 2 years will be very good but in the future his contract will hamper his team the same way Pujols' did to the Angels and Cabrera's has for the Tigers. You can't discount the opportunity cost to the team for a highly paid, nonperforming slugger.
Now if a team could sign him to a 3 year deal with astronomical yearly salaries, I think that could be a win for the team but would still be risky due to Judge's injury history and age. I don't think there is any reason Judge would agree to that kind of deal though.
Robb
Pujols:
Age 35 40 HR 95 RBI
Age 36 31 HR 119 RBI
Age 37 23 HR 101 RBI
Age 38 19 HR 64 RBI
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Cakes,
Pujols:
Age 35 3.1 WAR
Age 36 1.4 WAR
Age 37 -1.8 WAR
Age 38 0.5 WAR
Compared to Pujols averaging over 7 WAR per season before that. His on-base percentage dropped by over 100 points during those 4 years compared to his prime. He was a shadow of his former self.
it would be like saying Stanton is still playing well because he had 31 HR and 78 RBIs this season without mentioning his .211 batting average.
@fergie23 said:
A long term contract for Judge will be a disaster for whatever team signs him. He will miss games due to injuries in the first 3 years of the contract and once he turns 35, he will either stop playing well (like Pujols, Miggie, etc) or always be injured and never on the field.
Baseball and basketball are the sports that seem to pay for past performance which I guess is the power of guaranteed contracts.
I think during the last 4 years of his contract (I assume he will get a contract for 6 or more years) he will average less than 120 games played per year and have less than 8 total WAR over those 4 seasons. That said, if he stays healthy, I think his next 2 years will be very good but in the future his contract will hamper his team the same way Pujols' did to the Angels and Cabrera's has for the Tigers. You can't discount the opportunity cost to the team for a highly paid, nonperforming slugger.
Now if a team could sign him to a 3 year deal with astronomical yearly salaries, I think that could be a win for the team but would still be risky due to Judge's injury history and age. I don't think there is any reason Judge would agree to that kind of deal though.
Robb
Pujols:
Age 35 40 HR 95 RBI
Age 36 31 HR 119 RBI
Age 37 23 HR 101 RBI
Age 38 19 HR 64 RBI
RBI? Really? do you really think RBI is an effective individual metric for comparing players?
Someone is probably going to offer him an 8 year deal, if that's what he's looking for.
The first 4 years (if he's healthy) should be fine. The question is how badly will he drop off as he ages. Of course, if he gets hurt a lot, that will be bad for whoever signs him.
He sure put himself in a great position for a long term deal!
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@Cakes said:
Frank Howard is a good comp for weight and height.
You mentioning Frank and BLUEJAYWAY mentioning Boog made my point for me. Howard was washed up at 35, Boog at 34.
Judge will be 31 in April, hence my suggestion of 4 years. Pay him $45-50m for those four years so your payroll isn't hamstrung when he's just hanging on. If that means losing him, so be it. Pretty sure St. Louis doesn't regret letting Pujols go - they had more success with him gone than the Angels have had with him, Trout and Ohtani.
@fergie23 said:
A long term contract for Judge will be a disaster for whatever team signs him. He will miss games due to injuries in the first 3 years of the contract and once he turns 35, he will either stop playing well (like Pujols, Miggie, etc) or always be injured and never on the field.
Baseball and basketball are the sports that seem to pay for past performance which I guess is the power of guaranteed contracts.
I think during the last 4 years of his contract (I assume he will get a contract for 6 or more years) he will average less than 120 games played per year and have less than 8 total WAR over those 4 seasons. That said, if he stays healthy, I think his next 2 years will be very good but in the future his contract will hamper his team the same way Pujols' did to the Angels and Cabrera's has for the Tigers. You can't discount the opportunity cost to the team for a highly paid, nonperforming slugger.
Now if a team could sign him to a 3 year deal with astronomical yearly salaries, I think that could be a win for the team but would still be risky due to Judge's injury history and age. I don't think there is any reason Judge would agree to that kind of deal though.
Robb
Pujols:
Age 35 40 HR 95 RBI
Age 36 31 HR 119 RBI
Age 37 23 HR 101 RBI
Age 38 19 HR 64 RBI
First time I've seen someone use a player hitting 19 HR with 64 RBI for $27,000,000 as an example of a good contract.
Look, without a doubt Gehrig and Pujols are the top two firstbasemen in history, but you can't get away from the fact that he got exactly zero MVP votes in the last seven years he was in California.
beyond that "special" season, there was a significant drop off for the rest of his career after about age 31or 32. here are the numbers from the time he arived in Boston through age 31:
OBP: .402, SLG: .612, OPS: 1.014, OPS+ 156 He also had single seasons of 41, 47 and 54 HR.
From Age 32 to 39:
OBP .372, SLG .534, OPS .906, OPS+ 139
>
Ortiz is probably a bad example. I'm having trouble seeing the significant drop off here. Although lower, his age 32 to 39 numbers would make him a top 10 player in today's world and would have been right at probably #10 in his age 39 year. With those numbers, I'd say a big contract would have been worth it for him.
@FirstBeard said:
Judge is 1-11 with 8 strikeouts. Rob Deer would we better at this point. He should never see a ball in the zone again. He is an easy out.
You talk about Judge like he's Kevin Maas. I thought he was, too. Until 2018.
Comments
Again, I’d like to point out that it’s mostly because the league changed the rules - which is fine - but this is the first year anyone has ever had a chance to do it - especially since most organizations have, historically ‘forbid’ their pitchers from hitting upon drafting them.
Also, Mike Hampton hit 7 HR in 35 games started in early 2000’s (a pace of around 32) and there are many other pitchers who have had good hitting seasons in limited opportunities and at bats.
With the shortness of rosters and having so many pitchers anyway, maybe it will set a new trend? It’s a copycat world after all…
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the rule change only affects game day for a pitcher. under the old rules, it may have taken away 1-2 PA per game pitched. the angels could have either decided to give up that 1 or 2 PA per start or put him in at 1b for the last few innings in a double switch.
as far as Hampton, that was a unicorn season for him. he hit almost half his career home runs that season. think brady anderson on a much more drastic scale.
I am pretty sure the DH has been in existence since 1973. why exactly is Ohtani the very first pitcher in all those years to have the "chance" to play DH on his off days and pitch one every 5 games?
He is in no way the first to have the "CHANCE" he is the first to have the ABILITY to do such a thing.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
I’m not completely sure as I am not up on all things Ohtani but I am pretty sure that it is written into his contract that he gets to both hit and pitch. In the early going, as I recall, Mike Scoscia wanted him to just pitch or just hit and he was referred to the contract.
That’s my memory of it, could be way off.
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.
That's a HUGE stretch. I would say the rule change helped Ohtani's hitting numbers very marginally. He averaged 6 IP per game and taking into account that the home team doesn't bat in the ninth when winning, that would equate to about 1 plate appearance per game. So, we are talking about 30 additional plate appearances per season because of the rule. So, without the rule change, Ohtani would have 636 plate appearances this year instead of 666.
What the rule change does do is make Ohtani more **Valuable ** since you don't need to roster an extra hitter and can add another bullpen arm or a baserunning specialist.
Mike Hampton was an excellent hitter for being a pitcher - one of the best in his era. But, it must be pointed out that he had exactly zero home runs in 450 plate appearances before signing with Colorado in 2001. That Mile High air did wonders for him. Also of note, 2001 was the year that 2 players hit more dingers than Aaron Judge hit this year...... just sayin'
I think he was a non preformer(hurt) in the last few years of his multi year contract. He stunk at end of his career.
good point!
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
I will never understand these Nostradamus type predictions. I just reread the above, I guess you are talking about his past. He has two straight injury free seasons. BTW I would say you could say the exact same thing regarding a large portion of free agents past and present. George Springer, Harper, etc. Injuries are a part of sports, not everyone is an ironman.
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He'll be 31. He's got a significant history of injuries. He's 6'7" and nearly 300lbs. I just think it's a safe bet he misses a lot of time over the course of his next contract.
Judge has had 2 straight injury free seasons. His weight matches his height. But yes I would assume eventually he will have feet/foot problems, like most big men that play sports.
You can say the exact same thing about half of the free agents every year. Should the Phillies not have gone after Harper?
To be clear if you owned or managed the Yankees you would not sign Judge to a long term contract? I would.
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Correct. I'd give him four years, no more.
^^^^ I agree. 285 pound players do not age well. not at all.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Well then I guess you would lose Judge. I would give him up to 8 years and if he can't produce very well the last couple I can live with that. Plus you can move him to 1B or DH later in his career.
Frank Howard is a good comp for weight and height.
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Boog Powell may fit that comparison as well.
without looking, I would guess you could count the number of 280 lb outfielders in the history of the game on 2 hands. possibly one. there is a reason for that...
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
I would guess most of the giant sized athletes like him are pushed into Football or Basketball.
Just listing his weight seems like a deliberate attempt to not add any context to the comment. In reality he is 6' 7" and carries the weight well. It looks like he is shredded and has very little body fat. If he was 280, 6' 1" , with 20% body fat I would be much more concerned.
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But will he be able to load up on HGH and whatever other designer supplements he used during the extended lockout?
the issue is not what kind of weight (fat or muscle) it is the weight period. His Knees, ankles and feet will give out well before a lighter athlete. It is just physiology and you cant beat it. 40-year-old men do not run around the outfield at 280.
Look at when Centers in Basketball wear down and most of them don't weigh 280. David Ortiz was just a DH for the vast majority of his career and his feet were his ultimate downfall. look at all the problems Pujols has had in the 2nd half of his career with his feet.
I agree, Judge is a ripped 280 at 30. as he pushes further into his 30s, that number will climb and he will be over 300 no doubt. he may be over 280 right now as that is just his listed weight and those are often skewed lighter.
His legs/feet will give out due to the weight.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Hey Vern, How you been ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_players_from_Panama
I would certainly sign both Ortiz and Pujols at the age of 30 to long term deals and they carry more extra weight/fat.
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test test test test > @craig44 said:
As much as it pains me to agree with you as I'd like it not to be the case, you are correct. Gravity is fundamental force
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Well once again you are another owner that would lose Judge. I would give him up to 8 years and if he can't produce very well the last couple I can live with that. Plus you can move him to 1B or DH later in his career.
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If in 1975 you had told anyone that the Yankees centerfielder weighed more than Mean Joe Greene and Ed Too Tall Jones, they would have thought you were from Mars. If you said that 285 pound guy also stole 16 bases and batted leadoff...then they would think that is not possible at all and probably figure you were being a jerk or jokester.
Judge is a freak of nature, a six foot seven 285 pound athlete that is also highly skilled to be able to play baseball at the highest level.
Judge has been injury prone for sure, but it doesn't necessarily mean it is because of his weight or that he will succumb to injury faster due to his weight.
CC Sabathia weighed 300 pounds and his legs took a pounding and he made it to age 38.
Shaq weighed over 300 pounds and ran up and down a court in a more physical game and he lasted a long time playing until age 38 in a sport where playing to that age is hard for anyone.
Thing is, 285 pound guys in the past were in that stratosphere due to different body composition and most likely not athletic. Judge, like said above, is far more athletic and muscular...and that makes a difference because you are more apt/capable to control and distribute your weight efficiently more so than a 285 pound tub of goo.
In baseball, it probably isn't smart to sign any player to a long term deal at age 31. It also probably isn't smart to give "one" player so much money either since their impact on each game is only a small percentage.
But, he will get paid above the current going rate...and some team will make it a long term deal because they can afford it.
He will still be good for several more years. Unless it is a ten year deal, a team like the Yankees won't feel the pinch at all if he tanks in the fifth year of a six year contract.
Pujols was one of the worst long term contracts ever and Ortiz dropped pretty significantly after age 32. He also had a very questionable season at age 40. I remember it very well. his feet were a constant issue and he really couldnt run/move any more
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
285 pound players, especially in Baseball are unicorns. that is why the few that ever did it are on the tip of our tongues. it is so rare. Same with Shaq. guys playing basketball at 285 or over 300 are very few and far between.
take your example CC. He had a pretty big dropoff after his age 31 season (next year is Judges age 31 season). he only missed time, only threw 200+ innings 2x, had 4 really bad seasons and was generally an average pitcher after age 31. ERA+ 101. Shaq after age 32 was a shell of himself. points way down, minutes down missed lots of time due to injury.
ask any orthopedic specialist the impact weight has on one's knees. when you walk, the pressure on your knees is 3-6x body weight. that is even greater when running, jumping etc. every 10 pounds one adds is 30-60 lbs of pressure on the knees. at 285, judge is already putting 225-450 more lbs on each knee than a 210 pound player. every single step.
that is why big guys dont play as long as smaller guys. maybe he will be the 1 in 10MM, but i doubt it.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
I am advocating the Yankees sign Judge to an 8 year deal.
That's not true about Pujols, maybe they gave him more money than he deserved but his numbers show he produced.
Age 31 37 HR 99 RBI MVP 5
Age 32 30 HR 105 RBI MVP 17
Age 33 17 HR 64 RBI
Age 34 28 HR 105 RBI MVP 17
Age 35 40 HR 95 RBI
Age 36 31 HR 119 RBI
Age 37 23 HR 101 RBI
Age 38 19 HR 64 RBI
You should be ashamed to compare the body of Judge to Ortiz! Please use an apples to apples comparison.
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Respectfully does your argument contain any data or facts or is this more opinion based?
I am pretty sure Boston thought otherwise. Here is Ortiz's final 4 seasons:
37 30 HR 103 RBI MVP 10
38 35 HR 104 RBI
39 37 HR 108 RBI MVP 28
40 38 HR 127 RBI MVP 6
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tell me we are beyond using RBI as an individual metric...
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Again, lets please not get into using RBI as an individual metric. it is not. for the life of the LAA contract Albert was Pretty abysmal and hamstrung the GMs salary structure. This is not just my thoughts, it is an almost universally held belief. For the length of the contract, which i believe started after his age 31 season:
OBP .311 SLG .448 OPS .758 OPS+ 108 and he had 181 GIDP!!!
just a terrible performance for tons and tons of money. and lots and lots of foot problems...
like I said, it doesnt matter how the weight is distributed. Yes, Judge is ripped, Ortiz a puddle of pudding, but it is exactly the same as which weighs more, 100lbs of feathers or 100lbs of bricks. they weigh the exact same. and the knee joint does not care how it is distributed.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Judge for MVP? That is quite the judgement call!
Dimes: 54S, 53P, 50P, 49S, 45D+S, 44S, 43D, 41S, 40D+S, 39D+S, 38D+S, 37D+S, 36S, 35D+S, all 16-34's
Quarters: 52S, 47S, 46S, 40S, 39S, 38S, 37D+S, 36D+S, 35D, 34D, 32D+S
74 Topps: 37,38,47,151,193,241,435,570,610,654,655
1997 Finest silver: 115, 135, 139, 145, 310
1995 Ultra Gold Medallion Sets: Golden Prospects, HR Kings, On-Base Leaders, Power Plus, RBI Kings, Rising Stars
Agreed and I fully expect Shohei to get ohtani support.
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Paying him more than he is worth is not the point, it was about health later in their careers. You said " Ortiz dropped pretty significantly after age 32." and that just isn't true regardless of which metric you use. The numbers clearly show he played much better than you give him credit for and at age 40 he had an MVP type season.
Your weight logic is flawed, of course how it's distributed matters.
In the late seventies you would have been the GM or scout that said Cal Ripken Jr. should not play SS, that he should be a 3B.
Times change and bigger players have proven they can have long. productive careers. I repeat most of the large men choose Football or Basketball but that could change as CTE continues to increase. Frank Thomas would never have played 19 seasons in the NFL.
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All valid points.
To address your Ortiz concerns.
I already mentioned he had a very "suspect" final season. Having his second best year as an extremely hobbled 40 year old.
beyond that "special" season, there was a significant drop off for the rest of his career after about age 31or 32. here are the numbers from the time he arived in Boston through age 31:
OBP: .402, SLG: .612, OPS: 1.014, OPS+ 156 He also had single seasons of 41, 47 and 54 HR.
From Age 32 to 39:
OBP .372, SLG .534, OPS .906, OPS+ 139
getting on base and hitting the ball with power (the 2 most important things a hitter can do) were both significantly down for Ortiz. the Red Sox are the local team where I live so I have seen the vast majority of Ortiz's career play out in front of me and I heard all the local talking heads on TV and Radio spew on about him. I remember there were even those talking about trading him.
You are clearly not understanding my concerns about athletes' weight and their general lack of performance if they are heavy. As far as your point about the distribution of weight and its impact on players knees, whatever weight is above the knee joint will affect the health of the joint. just ask any orthopedic specialist. now, I will admit defeat if Aaron Judge has GIANT cankles and is carrying 80lbs on each cankle. now that would be good weight distribution for knee joint health. beyond that, it doesn't matter if you have a giant gut like CC or linebacker shoulders and arms like Judge, all that weight is above the knee so it is adding extra stress to the joint that a lighter player would not experience.
yes, athletes are getting bigger, but not nearly as big as Judge. 285lbs is just too much. Just look at the track record. There isnt much of one, because players that large do not play long generally. Very few have, but they are memorable because they are the exception not the rule. taking Judge's past injury history into account, I wouldn't bet on him being the one to be an exception.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Your understanding of human anatomy is flawed. Do you really think an Orthopedic surgeon wouldn't point out is all relative to height and weight? Of course he would, all body types are different.
Weight is not weight, it depends on how it's distributed. Trust me his knees, ankles, feet, etc. are much larger than Pujols or Ortiz and can carry more weight.
If you cannot understand the difference between a Toyota Tundra and a Toyota Tacoma we can just agree to disagree.
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you are really not getting this...
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Is it ‘undr’ and ‘acom’ ???
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Ditto
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A long term contract for Judge will be a disaster for whatever team signs him. He will miss games due to injuries in the first 3 years of the contract and once he turns 35, he will either stop playing well (like Pujols, Miggie, etc) or always be injured and never on the field.
Baseball and basketball are the sports that seem to pay for past performance which I guess is the power of guaranteed contracts.
I think during the last 4 years of his contract (I assume he will get a contract for 6 or more years) he will average less than 120 games played per year and have less than 8 total WAR over those 4 seasons. That said, if he stays healthy, I think his next 2 years will be very good but in the future his contract will hamper his team the same way Pujols' did to the Angels and Cabrera's has for the Tigers. You can't discount the opportunity cost to the team for a highly paid, nonperforming slugger.
Now if a team could sign him to a 3 year deal with astronomical yearly salaries, I think that could be a win for the team but would still be risky due to Judge's injury history and age. I don't think there is any reason Judge would agree to that kind of deal though.
Robb
Pujols:
Age 35 40 HR 95 RBI
Age 36 31 HR 119 RBI
Age 37 23 HR 101 RBI
Age 38 19 HR 64 RBI
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Cakes,
Pujols:
Age 35 3.1 WAR
Age 36 1.4 WAR
Age 37 -1.8 WAR
Age 38 0.5 WAR
Compared to Pujols averaging over 7 WAR per season before that. His on-base percentage dropped by over 100 points during those 4 years compared to his prime. He was a shadow of his former self.
it would be like saying Stanton is still playing well because he had 31 HR and 78 RBIs this season without mentioning his .211 batting average.
Robb
RBI? Really? do you really think RBI is an effective individual metric for comparing players?
shall we use pitcher wins next?
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Someone is probably going to offer him an 8 year deal, if that's what he's looking for.
The first 4 years (if he's healthy) should be fine. The question is how badly will he drop off as he ages. Of course, if he gets hurt a lot, that will be bad for whoever signs him.
He sure put himself in a great position for a long term deal!
You mentioning Frank and BLUEJAYWAY mentioning Boog made my point for me. Howard was washed up at 35, Boog at 34.
Judge will be 31 in April, hence my suggestion of 4 years. Pay him $45-50m for those four years so your payroll isn't hamstrung when he's just hanging on. If that means losing him, so be it. Pretty sure St. Louis doesn't regret letting Pujols go - they had more success with him gone than the Angels have had with him, Trout and Ohtani.
First time I've seen someone use a player hitting 19 HR with 64 RBI for $27,000,000 as an example of a good contract.
Look, without a doubt Gehrig and Pujols are the top two firstbasemen in history, but you can't get away from the fact that he got exactly zero MVP votes in the last seven years he was in California.
Judge is 0-7 with 6 strikeouts in the ALDS.
…and Shohei Ohtani is 3 under through 9.
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>
Ortiz is probably a bad example. I'm having trouble seeing the significant drop off here. Although lower, his age 32 to 39 numbers would make him a top 10 player in today's world and would have been right at probably #10 in his age 39 year. With those numbers, I'd say a big contract would have been worth it for him.
Judge is 1-11 with 8 strikeouts. Rob Deer would we better at this point. He should never see a ball in the zone again. He is an easy out.
You talk about Judge like he's Kevin Maas. I thought he was, too. Until 2018.