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Ohtani or Judge for MVP?
judgebuck
Posts: 989 ✭✭✭
Ohtani 34 HRs, 88 RBIs, .267 BA 12-8, 188 Ks, 2.55 ERA
Judge 55 HRs, 121 RBIs, .308 BA
Who do you like?
Always looking for Mantle cards such as Stahl Meyer, 1954 Dan Dee, 1959 Bazooka, 1960 Post, 1952 Star Cal Decal, 1952 Tip Top Bread Labels, 1953-54 Briggs Meat, and other Topps, Bowman, and oddball Mantles.
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Sorry, there was already another discussion on this topic.
Always looking for Mantle cards such as Stahl Meyer, 1954 Dan Dee, 1959 Bazooka, 1960 Post, 1952 Star Cal Decal, 1952 Tip Top Bread Labels, 1953-54 Briggs Meat, and other Topps, Bowman, and oddball Mantles.
Clearly Bobby Orr is better than either of them. His ERA is zero! Who has ever done that? Really, if you never saw Bobby play, you shouldn’t be able to vote for either Judge or Ohtani.
It's not even a close race.
It is a very close race, IMO. Being a top 5 pitcher and hitter is pure insanity. However, Judge is having a similarly historic season, maybe a triple crown. I think Judge just sneaks past Ohtani. And this from a Clevelander who despises the Yankees.
Tough call IMHO
Sneaks? That's funny. One is having a historic season while single-handedly carrying his team to the playoffs, and one is a .260 hitter that is 29 games out of 1st place in their division.
Still a few weeks left on a very close race. The fact that a one-way player is even in the conversation shows how incredible Judge’s season is.
2nd in the league in homers, and oh yeah you forgot to mention he is an elite pitcher. Judge is having the better year at the plate, and is probably having the better season overall. But denigrating what Ohtani is accomplishing is just silly
You guys just don’t get it. Bobby Orrs baseball career was terribly short. So you need to look at the stats PER GAME. Aaron Judge is batting .307, but it took him 137 games to do it! So that’s .002 per game. Bobby, on only 1 knee battling injuries, has zero games, so his batting average per game (.000/0) is infinity! Simple math! With Bobbys ERA of zero, I don’t know why Ohtani is even mentioned. Orr is EASILY better.
My neighbor’s cousin’s fiancé’s chiropractor played little league with Bobby Orr. He’s also the grandson of Mickey Mantle’s dentist. He told me Orr was better, and I’ll take his word over yours.
And, since blasting pictures obviously strengthens any argument, here’s Bobby slinging it.
@GreenSneakers - You keeping mentioning Bobby Orr.
First, who’s the other guy? I’m dying to know.
Second, I’m fairly certain it’s spelled “or”.
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den·i·grate
/ˈdenəˌɡrāt/
verb: denigrate; 3rd person present: denigrates; past tense: denigrated; past participle: denigrated; gerund or present participle: denigrating
criticize unfairly; disparage.
Is he not a .260 hitter? Is his team not 29 games out of first place in their division? Those are not unfair criticisms, just accurate statements.
While my dictionary is still open would you like me to look up the word elite for you? I'm only asking because you used it while describing Ohtani so you may not know what it means. He is a really good pitcher though.
The word historic was used to describe the wrong player. Ohtani is doing things on a frequent basis that have never been done in the sport. Judge is incredible, but bats in a stacked lineup in a tiny park. His walk rate is shockingly low too. I suspect he will win the MVP anyway since the Angels are awful and Judge has been so fun to watch this year. It is crazy to think the Angels have two MVP caliber players are are still so terrible.
Timing is everything. There have been lots of players that are great when it doesn't matter, but not so good when it counts. That's what sets Derek Jeter apart from a lot of his counterparts. When the moment was big he was bigger. For Trout and Ohtani there are never been any big moments. Neither has ever won a playoff game and I think Trout has only played in three games and lost all three.
In fact before Trout joined the Angels in 2011, the Angels made the playoffs in 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009. And they have only had 3 winning seasons. Great statistical players is the best way to sum them up. Champions, not close, at least yet.
Judge should be the MVP and it probably won't be close. Goldschmidt in the National league.
LOL
That other thread on this forum you're referencing here was sounding similar to an SNL skit of Bill Swerski's super fans discussing Ditka.
Take Judge out of the Yankee lineup and the Yankees would be in third place hoping for a Wild Card berth.
Take Ohtani out the Angels lineup and rotation and the Angels would still be a bad team.
Judges numbers and value to his team are far superior to Ohtani's. The race for MVP is not even close.
How dare you make Babe Ruth cry.
My use of the word historic is way more accurate than your use of the word never. Not only has it been done before, but Ohtani isn't even the best ever at doing done it.
Great points. Totally agree.
And nobody beats the Babe!
I mean this debate is much closer than Nam makes it sound, but Judge still deserves MVP because of his effect on his team. That's the spirit of the MVP award anyway... Most Valuable Player for their team. Like @johfr said, take Ohtani out the Angels lineup and rotation and the Angels would still be a bad team. The Yankees with and without Judge is a huge difference.
Actually, Babe Ruth has two seasons where you could say he was doing the same as what Ohtani is doing - 1918 (382 PA, 166 IP) and 1919 (543 PA, 133 IP). In the years prior (Red Sox) he was basically just pitching and the years after (NYY) basically just hitting.
If you compare the two seasons in totality, and be objective, I think Shohei Ohtani has him beat.
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No opinion on either. Look at deGrom’s wins and losses and the Mets record in 2018. Team record is irrelevant, that was a metric from years past.
Austin Riley will be a closer 2nd place in the NL than Ohtani will be in the AL.
Always buying Bobby Cox inserts. PM me.
All Rise.
American League stat leaders in the 2nd half:
HR: Judge (22)
RBI: Judge (51)
R: Judge (39)
BB%: Judge (19.8)
ISO: Judge (.449)
OBP: Judge (.493)
SLG: Judge (.802)
OPS: Judge (1.295)
wOBA: Judge (.524)
wRC+: Judge (255)
fWAR: Judge (4.7)
I think you need to reconsider Ruth's career. Ruth was really only a full-time pitcher in 1916 and 1917. Other than those two years he was barely league average and in limited work. In those years he had only 3.7 WAR (total) for position players, or, for those who don't like advanced stats, 5 HR. 5. Fewer than Mike Trout has hit in the past week. No no idea how good Ruth could have been if he had just been a pitcher, but top 50 seems a reasonable guess, and no one can deny he was an all-time great position player, and you shouldn't listen to anyone who lists him below the top five.
No one has combined elite hitting and very, very good pitching like Ohtani has. Nobody.
I don't expect to convince anyone of this, but your data does not hold up. Just considering Hall of Famers, Jeter was 149th in Clutch WPA. https://stathead.com/tiny/8wD1t Of course a lot of players who were more clutch; Tony Taylor, Dick Groat, Pete Rose and, yes, Bill Buckner are all in the top six, after all, but you can escape the fact that Jeter was a - in clutch situations.
I gotta go with Judge. Ohtani has 8 more losses than him
I vote Judge he is having too good of a year and doesn't look to be slowing down. If Ohtani had 15 wins and 6 losses and was batting around .295 right now I would choice him.
James
Let me preface this by saying, i am dodger fan and despise the yankees.
Derek Jeter's batting average in the World Series:
1996 250
1998 353
1999 353
2000 409 MVP
2001 148
2003 346
2009 407
Mr Daltex, these look like pretty nice numbers. Mr Trout and Mr Ohtani would like to have an at bat in the world series, heck maybe a play in game.
Jeter also played in 158 playoff games finishing with a 308 average, 20 hr's,, 61 rbi's and 18 stolen bases. That's about a regular season. Nice numbers for a shortstop. But to have these type of numbers at the pinnacle of his sport is amazing.
Joe Namath had a nice career, but when he won the big one and predicted that he would, it put him over the top. It's what you do in the big moments that sets players, CEO's, President's, etc apart from others.
Trout's 7 HR's in a row is a great stat and he's a great player. But his team is in last place, again, and there is 0 pressure on him and his team. When the season was still in play, he was just ok.
Namath is not a good comparison and is one of the most overrated players ever. He made a prediction and won. It's a shame he's in the HOF with these numbers.
He had 5 seasons where he was over .500 and 2 of those seasons he was one game over .500. These numbers do not make a great career.
1965 NYJ 3−5−1
1966 NYJ 5−6−2
1967 NYJ 8−5−1
1968 NYJ 11−3
1969 NYJ 10−4
1970 NYJ 1−4
1971 NYJ 2−1
1972 NYJ 7−6
1973 NYJ 2−3
1974 NYJ 7−7
1975 NYJ 3−10
1976 NYJ 1−7
1977 LAR 2-2
Career 62−63−4
He still does commercials, announced monday football for years and his cards are at the top of the heap. All that for winning the biggest one. I bet Trout would like to win a playoff game, much less the biggest upset in Super Bowl History.
Namath was MVP of the that Super Bowl also. His rookie card is one of the most valuable football cards. Probably top 5.
It's been exactly
3000!!!!!!
days since Trouty has played a meaningful game.
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.
Even the slightest bit of pressure, and he collapses like a table under the weight of BILLS' MAFIA!
Even during this streak, in the Angels' losses, look at what he's done late in the game with a chance to tie..
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By being in the lineup every day and pitching every 5th, Ohtani actually frees up a roster spot for another player. You can add an extra reliever so the bullpen isn't as taxed or even grab a Billy Hamilton type to be a dedicated Pinch Runner (Herb Washington anyone?!). This intangible factor is just so hard to quantify (and there is not even a sabermetric for it that I know of). It's just sick what he is doing and we may never see it again. Would any American minor league system allow someone to develop both skills? Doubtful.
If only Ohtani made his team better.
Isn't that literally what WAR is supposed to calculate?
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This is probably the main reason that he's so relevant. He was also a big personality when that didn't really happen in sports then. Similar to Derek Sanderson.
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Larry Brown, Deion Branch & Mark Rypien also was a Super Bowl MVP. That doesn't make them one of the best to play.
My knock on Namath is his 5 winning seasons and career record of one game under .500. I don't think there are any other QB's (or Pitchers) with a record like that and make the HOF. Eli will be the next closest when he gets in with a career record of .500.
Two more homeruns so far for Judge tonight. Oh, and each of them tied the game.
The Angels are a bad franchise. Trout and Ohtani are great players. Ted Williams played for crap teams his whole career, but no one thinks he is a scrub because of it.
The Red Sox were more than 250 games above .500 for the total years Williams played (1939 - 1960), but in the 3 years he missed complete seasons for military service (1943 - 1945) they were 28 games under .500, so they were really closer to 300 games over .500 in years he was on the field.
The Angels are 56 games under .500 in the Years that Ohtani has been there (2018 - 2022).
It's really unfair to attribute 1952 and the vast majority of 1953 to Williams, and for the same reason. I think the fact that the Angels have had two of the best players of all-time plus two (more) legit superstars and, as you point out, have been terrible shows that they've been terribly run. You could suggest that Rendon was finished and Pujols almost finished when they came to Anaheim, but back in St. Louis Pujols is hitting better than he has since he left, and is over all better than he's been since his last all-star season (2015). He was a good to really good (declining as he aged) defensive first baseman, but starting in 2016 when he first played more DH than 1B his defensive value has really dropped.
I'm really interested in seeing what happens after Arte Moreno sells the team.
Yep. I said no one would believe me. I stand by what I said, and suggest that perhaps there is more to being a good player than having a "pretty nice" batting average. Your point about "nice numbers for a shortstop" brings up the biggest issue with Jeter. I'd say he was a TERRIBLE shortstop, but that doesn't begin to cover it. Jeter hurt his teams defensively more than anyone else at any position in history. This is not to suggest that he was the worst defender of all time or, necessarily, even a bad defender. But we'll never know because the Yankees never tried Jeter at a position he could play as well as, say, Greg Luzinski played left field. You can replace Luzinski with literally any other player at any other position that he actually played. It's a good bet that Jeter played short better than David Ortiz would have, but that's not a meaningful comparison.
Bottom line is that in the post season (which is not quite the same as clutch periods) Jeter apparently added 0.02 wins to the Yankees results and contributed 1.2% to a championship. That means that Derek Jeter's net postseason effect over those 158 playoff games isn't statistically discernable from yours.
Jeter would have had the same contribution as the first base coach as he did as a shortstop.
I still don't expect any of this to dent Jeter's mystique, but the numbers are out there.
It's not even close. Aaron Judge.
For those that say it is Arte Moreno's fault...
Moreno bought the team midway through the 2003 season in which the Angels ended with a 77-85 record. They had made the playoffs only once since 1986 at this point.
2004-2011 - pre Trout
733 wins 563 losses .565 win% (only 1 season with a losing record 80-82). 5 playoff appearances (10 wins - 19 losses).
2012-2022 - Trout years
820 wins 839 losses .494 win% (only 3 seasons with more wins than losses) 1 playoff appearance (0 wins - 3 losses)
from 2004 to 2011 the only major offensive star the Angels had was Vlad Guerrero. Given his lifetime WAR was only 59.1 and Mike Trout is up to 84.5 most Trout fanboys would say Vlad was not even a star. Their pitching stars were Jared Weaver and John Lackey. Basically, their team had a very similar amount of talent from 2004 to 2011 yet with Vlad Guerrero they won and with Mike Trout and Oetani they do not win.
It seems like everyone wants to point the finger at an owner who had quite a lot of success without Trout and has had no success in 11 years with him.
Why do some people use team accomplishments as criteria for an individual award? makes as much sense as using pitcher wins and rbi to value hitters and pitchers. Does anyone really believe it is Ohtanis fault the LAA are a terrible team? Does anyone really believe that if the two players switched teams that Judge would single handedly make LAA a playoff team? It is foolishness.
Judge is having a fantastic season. historic even. but his value is not what Ohtani's value is.
simply, Ohtani is basically 2/3rds the hitter Judge is. According to the defensive metrics, Judge is about an average outfielder. Ohtani is a top 5 pitcher in his league.
by being a full time DH, who could no doubt play 1b or corner outfield if needed, and being a true number one starter, Ohtani does something Judge can never do. Namely, free up a roster spot. there is no current metric that I know of to calculate the value of that, but, it has to be very high. other than ruth, no one has ever added that value to a team. and no one has ever done it better than ohtani.
Ohtani is MVP
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
I can't even take you semi seriously now.
does your interpretation of the metrics tell you something different?
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
My eyes, the same eyes that have watched baseball for just about 50 years, the same eyes that watch Judge play every single night, tell me that he is an Elite defender. Elite.
I wouldn't try to tell anyone about the seaworthiness of a luxury cruise ship based on what I read about it in a book.
his range factor is aligned with the league average both in right and in center. his rtot and rdrs are both average to slightly below average for CF. both of those metrics are above average for RF.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
oh, now I get it. you are basing your view on Judges defensive prowess totally on anecdotal evidence.
do we really need to get into how faulty anecdotal evidence can be? And you cant take me seriously?
Oh boy...
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.