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from what is known now COVID-19 causes more severe disease than seasonal influenza.
While many people globally have built up immunity to seasonal flu strains, COVID-19 is a new virus to which no one has immunity. That means more people are susceptible to infection, and some will suffer severe disease.
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@Mgarmy said:
But the US has not taken the steps that China did JM. As testing continues to ramp up...numbers will go up. Likely up to 40 percent will be exposed. Will they all die...no way but chances are you will know someone who does
There is not one doctor or scientist that has suggested exposure rates even close to that.
@Mgarmy said:
But the US has not taken the steps that China did JM. As testing continues to ramp up...numbers will go up. Likely up to 40 percent will be exposed. Will they all die...no way but chances are you will know someone who does
There is not one doctor or scientist that has suggested exposure rates even close to that.
See JM ...economist also covered it. Please tell me you deny climate change as well..you have a boomer vibe. Your ignorance grows tiresome. Hope you took precautions old dude. Normally your contrarian horseshit is mildly amusing...not this time. Fine line between ignorance and willful ignorance JM. You happily occupy both sides of that spectrum...good for you just hope you listened and got extra meds and toilet paper and hand sanitizer and maybe an N95 respirator or three. Fit it correctly and only wear it when you go out in public when you have to and you can wear it several times just not for long periods. Bueno suerte
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@ErrorsOnCoins said:
Zero Stress ..... So glad we are out of the market. Lost 1%.
Will get back in at 22,000 perhaps 18,000 on the DOW
Now you will have the stress of trying to time the market. You could possibly miss out on the biggest rally ever in the market’s history. I wouldn’t want to miss that boat. My theory Is I came into this life with nothing and I will leave this life with with nothing. I don’t think St. Peter checks bags at the Pearly Gate.
Maybe I have to much faith and to much trust, but things will be alright in the long run.
Of course, things will be alright in the long run like every time.
No stress in picking a bottom, there will be many chances IMO.
Biggest rally ever??? Why??? What on earth would cause this??? The market was way overbought when this thing started. Much more downside to come, IMO. The market risk is unknown right now.
Your correct on what you say and everyone has their own investment plans, some work, some don’t. Playing the market is like getting old, “it’s not for sissies.” There will be ups and downs, rollercoaster rides, “hold on.”
I agree that there is a lot of market uncertainty. We new that something was coming in 2020, a correction or another recession. This was talked about in the a last quarter of 2018. Who knew, a virus would start it off.
I would be a fibber if I said I wasn’t scared. No one wants to be financially wiped out. Let’s keep the faith.
Timing the stock market is EXCEEDINGLY difficult, to say the least. In theory, every stock is trading at its correct price, all the time, based on known information. The market is very efficient in this regard. That said, lots of folks try!
Dave
Always looking for original, better date VF20-VF35 Barber quarters and halves, and a quality beer.
@Mgarmy said:
See JM ...economist also covered it. Please tell me you deny climate change as well..you have a boomer vibe. Your ignorance grows tiresome. Hope you took precautions old dude. Normally your contrarian horseshit is mildly amusing...not this time. Fine line between ignorance and willful ignorance JM. You happily occupy both sides of that spectrum...good for you just hope you listened and got extra meds and toilet paper and hand sanitizer and maybe an N95 respirator or three. Fit it correctly and only wear it when you go out in public when you have to and you can wear it several times just not for long periods. Bueno suerte
Really, you're resorting to ad hominem attacks? Clearly you have no facts.
I've posted legitimate scientific research. Argue with Nature and Lancet. So far, you still haven't posted a source and the only source is CBS News hyperbole.
Is it possible we achieve common-cold type exposure rates? Sure. Neither CDC nor WHO have suggested anything that widespread at this point.
Stick to posting facts. Your insults are beyond tiresome. Your credentials are questionable. Your sources are non-existent.
@Mgarmy said:
See JM ...economist also covered it. Please tell me you deny climate change as well..you have a boomer vibe. Your ignorance grows tiresome. Hope you took precautions old dude. Normally your contrarian horseshit is mildly amusing...not this time. Fine line between ignorance and willful ignorance JM. You happily occupy both sides of that spectrum...good for you just hope you listened and got extra meds and toilet paper and hand sanitizer and maybe an N95 respirator or three. Fit it correctly and only wear it when you go out in public when you have to and you can wear it several times just not for long periods. Bueno suerte
@Mgarmy said:
See JM ...economist also covered it. Please tell me you deny climate change as well..you have a boomer vibe. Your ignorance grows tiresome. Hope you took precautions old dude. Normally your contrarian horseshit is mildly amusing...not this time. Fine line between ignorance and willful ignorance JM. You happily occupy both sides of that spectrum...good for you just hope you listened and got extra meds and toilet paper and hand sanitizer and maybe an N95 respirator or three. Fit it correctly and only wear it when you go out in public when you have to and you can wear it several times just not for long periods. Bueno suerte
@Mgarmy said:
See JM ...economist also covered it. Please tell me you deny climate change as well..you have a boomer vibe. Your ignorance grows tiresome. Hope you took precautions old dude. Normally your contrarian horseshit is mildly amusing...not this time. Fine line between ignorance and willful ignorance JM. You happily occupy both sides of that spectrum...good for you just hope you listened and got extra meds and toilet paper and hand sanitizer and maybe an N95 respirator or three. Fit it correctly and only wear it when you go out in public when you have to and you can wear it several times just not for long periods. Bueno suerte
“This is a unique virus, with unique features. This virus is not influenza,” Tedros said Monday. “We are in uncharted territory.”
Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO’s health emergencies program, said Monday that the coronavirus isn’t transmitting the same exact way as the flu and health officials have been given a “glimmer, a chink of light” that the virus could be contained.
“Here we have a disease for which we have no vaccine, no treatment, we don’t fully understand transmission, we don’t fully understand case mortality, but what we have been genuinely heartened by is that unlike influenza, where countries have fought back, where they’ve put in place strong measures, we’ve remarkably seen that the virus is suppressed,” Ryan said.
My take. We have no clue of what this will look like in two weeks or two months or two years. Some health experts believe there will be a new strain next year. Protect yourself and family by any means you feel necessary. IMHO at this point there are no right or wrong ways to react to this except to panic. That never helps.
This was carried across multiple news outlets. Take your pick.
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
the point has been made in this thread that the disease is under-reported so it seems reasonable to assume that the deaths attributed to it are also under-reported.
Jm- if I am wrong...you can gloat..if I am right...you may not be around to gloat. Sell that coin. You have posted nothing that has not already been takin into consideration with my posts. I am giving you the info I am being told at work by the drs putting it out for the gov, if you choose to ignore it is on you. Believe what you want just don’t tell people not to be prepared
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the point has been made in this thread that the disease is under-reported so it seems reasonable to assume that the deaths attributed to it are also under-reported.
Actually, it doesn't usually work that way. The deaths are definitive. Infections may be asymptomatic.
My take is that someone one may think being isolated and stocked up may keep you safe, and that drenching yourself in had sanitizer is gonna save you, and it might if you live alone and can afford to sit this out, but for many this isn’t an option. My line of work requires essential proper blood born pathogens techniques and the training makes one a germaphobe. I see cross contamination everywhere. How do you get children to understand and it’s obvious that many adults don’t give a hoot about little bugs they can’t see when they leave a public bathroom stall and bail without washing hands or a little water sprinkled on them. I have little faith that people are going to start caring about hygiene overnight. Just now on the national news, I saw a decked out health screener at the airport adjust their glasses with a soiled gloves hand 😐.
The illness is scary when it goes through a nursing home, with actual nurses present, and it takes what it wants.
Still, there’s no way I’m gonna wear a mask everyday from this point forward. That new normal looks bleak. My job and many others don't allow for working from home. At this point I feel it’s prudent to keep some people isolated somewhat, to keep the medical facilities from getting swamped, but I think that in the end I’m resigned and prepared to get sick and hopefully survive it. I’m not so worried about me, it’s my wife, kids and immediate family that concern me the most, and the families of my coworkers and general society at large. I see a positive reset in society coming that teaches us what is truly important going forward and what we can possibly do without. I’m saddened with the prospect of the loss of group gatherings, flying, theaters, cruises etc and feel just cutting all this out is not an option.
Were social by nature and were going to have to adapt.
I think a large portion of society may be developing worry warts. I read doctors are perplexed that the virus is not affecting children as much as adults. A silver lining ?
@TwoSides2aCoin said:
I think a large portion of society may be developing worry warts. I read doctors are perplexed that the virus is not affecting children as much as adults. A silver lining ?
Yah. Send your kids to the store instead of going yourself.
the point has been made in this thread that the disease is under-reported so it seems reasonable to assume that the deaths attributed to it are also under-reported.
Actually, it doesn't usually work that way. The deaths are definitive. Infections may be asymptomatic.
So do they actually waste test kits on corpses or if confirmed that you have it and die then just automatically assume that Covid-19 was the COD?
Here are the latest developments:
"A breath test which could instantly pick up signs of coronavirus has been developed by British scientists."
If the breath test proves effective, it could really speed up the testing process.
The virus has mutated at least once per a Chinese preliminary study found that one strain — type “L” — of the virus was more aggressive and accounted for about 70 percent of the strains analyzed. The second — type “S” — was less aggressive and accounted for about 30 percent of analyzed strains.
the point has been made in this thread that the disease is under-reported so it seems reasonable to assume that the deaths attributed to it are also under-reported.
Actually, it doesn't usually work that way. The deaths are definitive. Infections may be asymptomatic.
So do they actually waste test kits on corpses or if confirmed that you have it and die then just automatically assume that Covid-19 was the COD?
They usually test before they die. But since they are still running down contacts for all infected individuals, they probably do confirm the diagnosis
@slider23 said:
“This is a unique virus, with unique features. This virus is not influenza,” Tedros said Monday. “We are in uncharted territory.”
The COVID19 is a lung disease. Common symptoms: fever, dry cough, difficulty breathing. There are other flu like symptoms that some people get.
People who dismiss the flu/influenza comparison are really dealing from panic and/or ignorance. Yes, it is not the flu in the same way the flu is not a common cold. But the epidemiology is similar, disease progression is similar, and even outcomes are similar.
I'd also point out for those that don't know, a LOT of common colds are caused by coronaviruses. This one is more virulent than the ones that all of us have contracted in the past, but to pretend this is something unprecedented in the annals of medicine is simply ignorant.
@keets said:
nonsense, but you may continue the discussion with yourself.
This is well known. Mortality rates are typically overstated in the beginning of an outbreak because of undercounting of infections. You could google it, if you like. But here's a Slate article if you care to read it.
"We shouldn’t be surprised that the numbers are inflated. In past epidemics, initial CFRs were floridly exaggerated. For example, in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic some early estimates were 10 times greater than the eventual CFR, of 1.28 percent. Epidemiologists think and quibble in terms of numerators and denominators—which patients were included when fractional estimates were calculated, which weren’t, were those decisions valid—and the results change a lot as a result. We are already seeing this. In the early days of the crisis in Wuhan, China, the CFR was more than 4 percent. As the virus spread to other parts of Hubei, the number fell to 2 percent. As it spread through China, the reported CFR dropped further, to 0.2 to 0.4 percent. As testing begins to include more asymptomatic and mild cases, more realistic numbers are starting to surface. New reports from the World Health Organization that estimate the global death rate of COVID-19 to be 3.4 percent, higher than previously believed, is not cause for further panic. This number is subject to the same usual forces that we would normally expect to inaccurately embellish death rate statistics early in an epidemic. If anything, it underscores just how early we are in this."
@TwoSides2aCoin said:
I think a large portion of society may be developing worry warts. I read doctors are perplexed that the virus is not affecting children as much as adults. A silver lining ?
Yah. Send your kids to the store instead of going yourself.
It may be as simple as the fact that children get a lot of coronavirus infections and so have higher immunity.
the point has been made in this thread that the disease is under-reported so it seems reasonable to assume that the deaths attributed to it are also under-reported.
Actually, it doesn't usually work that way. The deaths are definitive. Infections may be asymptomatic.
So do they actually waste test kits on corpses or if confirmed that you have it and die then just automatically assume that Covid-19 was the COD?
the point has been made in this thread that the disease is under-reported so it seems reasonable to assume that the deaths attributed to it are also under-reported.
Actually, it doesn't usually work that way. The deaths are definitive. Infections may be asymptomatic.
So do they actually waste test kits on corpses or if confirmed that you have it and die then just automatically assume that Covid-19 was the COD?
SEe the link to the Slate article below for more discussion of the tendency to overstate mortality rates.
@TwoSides2aCoin said:
I think a large portion of society may be developing worry warts. I read doctors are perplexed that the virus is not affecting children as much as adults. A silver lining ?
Yah. Send your kids to the store instead of going yourself.
It may be as simple as the fact that children get a lot of coronavirus infections and so have higher immunity.
True, just like going barefoot and playing in dirt, tho my response was intended to be TIC.
Nobody except you just now is saying it is unprecedented. What I am saying is that covid19 leads to more severe disease than seasonal flu strain and we have no immune protection against the new virus. As such social distancing and isolation to the extent possible and taking precautions particularly if you are above 60 and/or have pre-exsisting conditions such as diabetes, copd etc. you are at greater risk for a severe response. So your constant comparisons to seasonal influenza are apples and oranges and you need to stop. Yes flu is a Coronavirus, yes flu kills people (less than 1%) this one is tracking at around 3.2 but likely a bit lower as testing is just really ramping up now globally
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@Mgarmy said:
Nobody except you just now is saying it is unprecedented. What I am saying is that covid19 leads to more severe disease than seasonal flu strain and we have no immune protection against the new virus. As such social distancing and isolation to the extent possible and taking precautions particularly if you are above 60 and/or have pre-exsisting conditions such as diabetes, copd etc. you are at greater risk for a severe response. So your constant comparisons to seasonal influenza are apples and oranges and you need to stop. Yes flu is a Coronavirus, yes flu kills people (less than 1%) this one is tracking at around 3.2 but likely a bit lower as testing is just really ramping up now globally
I didn't mention you. Although re-read this thread and see what has been said with regards to the flu comparison.
I've also never argued against taking precautions.
I read a article on msn that said the corona virus will be similar to the bird flu in 1957. they estimate one million people will die from the virus before a vaccine is made and mass produced
@robec said:
What percentage of people exposed to this virus actually test positive? Are there any numbers?
How could anyone really know?
Actually the best exposure study to date is the cruise ship as they tested everyone before they let them off the boat. There were 3200 people on board, 600 tested positive and, I believe, 6 died. The demographic skewed older so you'd expect the mortality rate to be a bit overstated, but it should give you some idea of a near worst case exposure/infection situation as you had 3200 people on an island sharing airspace.
They did, at some point, request people stay in their rooms, but that is still a shared HVAC system and several days of free mixing of the passengers.
People should be looking at the South Korea data and the cruise ship data. South Korea had a very professional early response with several weeks of data now. And the cruise ship had the most complete testing regime on an isolated population possible.
You can do antibody studies to see exposure rates. The data exists for previous outbreaks (SARS, etc.) and for more common diseases (influenza, common coronaviruses).
In one published study, 50% of the positives were completely asymptomatic. This is a different issue, but interesting.
The other thing I've not seen published is what the false positive/false negative rates are for the test.
We just don’t know coin. Fingers crossed transmission slows late spring like traditional flu. I just worry about older folks
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People should be looking at the South Korea data and the cruise ship data. South Korea had a very professional early response with several weeks of data now. And the cruise ship had the most complete testing regime on an isolated population possible.
Interesting point, but here's the question. Is the US response going to be more like South Korea or Italy? What about France?
Or Egypt? Some countries are just not responsible enough to curtail the spread. The Korea's and Japan's may not be representative given their high compliance rates.
I would definitely take the over on your 200k estimate from earlier.
@Mgarmy said:
We just don’t know coin. Fingers crossed transmission slows late spring like traditional flu. I just worry about older folks
People over 80 should be concerned. The mortality rate in China was over 10% in that group. The mortality rate is quite small for people under 50 without underlying medical conditions. But if you are 70 or over or have heart/respiratory issues, you are at risk of complications.
People should be looking at the South Korea data and the cruise ship data. South Korea had a very professional early response with several weeks of data now. And the cruise ship had the most complete testing regime on an isolated population possible.
Interesting point, but here's the question. Is the US response going to be more like South Korea or Italy? What about France?
Or Egypt? Some countries are just not responsible enough to curtail the spread. The Korea's and Japan's may not be representative given their high compliance rates.
I would definitely take the over on your 200k estimate from earlier.
The day over day rates of new infection are not showing sustained growth:
@coinpalice said:
I read a article on msn that said the corona virus will be similar to the bird flu in 1957. they estimate one million people will die from the virus before a vaccine is made and mass produced
So it's okay to compare Covid19 to flus as long as they are the Spanish Flu or the Bird Flu. I guess we decide the apt comparison based on number of deaths not the actual epidemiology of the disease.
How about Covid19 relative to SARS? [Covid19 is also SARS-Cov-2] Oh, never mind, not enough people died from SARS to make it a useful comparison.
People should be looking at the South Korea data and the cruise ship data. South Korea had a very professional early response with several weeks of data now. And the cruise ship had the most complete testing regime on an isolated population possible.
Interesting point, but here's the question. Is the US response going to be more like South Korea or Italy? What about France?
Or Egypt? Some countries are just not responsible enough to curtail the spread. The Korea's and Japan's may not be representative given their high compliance rates.
I would definitely take the over on your 200k estimate from earlier.
The day over day rates of new infection are not showing sustained growth:
Anything is still possible. Personally, I don't care if there are 2 million cases, it's the deaths which is the only real concern.
Since @mgarmy was implying 35 million fatalities, I think I'm going to be far closer. [40% infection rate with 1% mortality, before you ask or object]
Where did I say 35m fatalities. I did say 40 percent exposure but also said not all of them would die. Early numbers out of China were 2 out of a 100. So worst case if the number held at 2 per on a 400m us population number is 8 mil. Not sure were the 35m came from
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@robec said:
What percentage of people exposed to this virus actually test positive? Are there any numbers?
How could anyone really know?
Actually the best exposure study to date is the cruise ship as they tested everyone before they let them off the boat. There were 3200 people on board, 600 tested positive and, I believe, 6 died. The demographic skewed older so you'd expect the mortality rate to be a bit overstated, but it should give you some idea of a near worst case exposure/infection situation as you had 3200 people on an island sharing airspace.
They did, at some point, request people stay in their rooms, but that is still a shared HVAC system and several days of free mixing of the passengers.
People should be looking at the South Korea data and the cruise ship data. South Korea had a very professional early response with several weeks of data now. And the cruise ship had the most complete testing regime on an isolated population possible.
You can do antibody studies to see exposure rates. The data exists for previous outbreaks (SARS, etc.) and for more common diseases (influenza, common coronaviruses).
In one published study, 50% of the positives were completely asymptomatic. This is a different issue, but interesting.
The other thing I've not seen published is what the false positive/false negative rates are for the test.
That's like picking an election winner with one precinct reporting. A good estimate sure, but a limited sample size. Had they allowed them to mingle like they would have had they gone ashore and gone their separate ways who knows. Also once found out the co-mingling was curtailed or minimized.
People should be looking at the South Korea data and the cruise ship data. South Korea had a very professional early response with several weeks of data now. And the cruise ship had the most complete testing regime on an isolated population possible.
Interesting point, but here's the question. Is the US response going to be more like South Korea or Italy? What about France?
Or Egypt? Some countries are just not responsible enough to curtail the spread. The Korea's and Japan's may not be representative given their high compliance rates.
I would definitely take the over on your 200k estimate from earlier.
The day over day rates of new infection are not showing sustained growth:
Anything is still possible. Personally, I don't care if there are 2 million cases, it's the deaths which is the only real concern.
Since @mgarmy was implying 35 million fatalities, I think I'm going to be far closer. [40% infection rate with 1% mortality, before you ask or object]
Where did I say 35m fatalities. I did say 40 percent exposure but also said not all of them would die. Early numbers out of China were 2 out of a 100. So worst case if the number held at 2 per on a 400m us population number is 8 mil. Not sure were the 35m came from
7 billion people in the world. 40% is roughly 3 billion people. 1% fatality is 30 million+
@robec said:
What percentage of people exposed to this virus actually test positive? Are there any numbers?
How could anyone really know?
Actually the best exposure study to date is the cruise ship as they tested everyone before they let them off the boat. There were 3200 people on board, 600 tested positive and, I believe, 6 died. The demographic skewed older so you'd expect the mortality rate to be a bit overstated, but it should give you some idea of a near worst case exposure/infection situation as you had 3200 people on an island sharing airspace.
They did, at some point, request people stay in their rooms, but that is still a shared HVAC system and several days of free mixing of the passengers.
People should be looking at the South Korea data and the cruise ship data. South Korea had a very professional early response with several weeks of data now. And the cruise ship had the most complete testing regime on an isolated population possible.
You can do antibody studies to see exposure rates. The data exists for previous outbreaks (SARS, etc.) and for more common diseases (influenza, common coronaviruses).
In one published study, 50% of the positives were completely asymptomatic. This is a different issue, but interesting.
The other thing I've not seen published is what the false positive/false negative rates are for the test.
That's like picking an election winner with one precinct reporting. A good estimate sure, but a limited sample size. Had they allowed them to mingle like they would have had they gone ashore and gone their separate ways who knows. Also once found out the co-mingling was curtailed or minimized.
Quite the contrary. It is a controlled experiment. It is not at all like picking an election winner by extrapolating one data point to the whole population. The cruise ship is the WHOLE POPULATION. Yes, that population is somewhat unique, but it allows for isolation of the actual interactions to be known and had a 100% test rate.
Comments
Not true. First exposure develops antibodies
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from what is known now COVID-19 causes more severe disease than seasonal influenza.
While many people globally have built up immunity to seasonal flu strains, COVID-19 is a new virus to which no one has immunity. That means more people are susceptible to infection, and some will suffer severe disease.
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China has lost so much business it is unbelievable as "Wolf Street" showed: https://wolfstreet.com/2020/03/01/chinas-non-manufacturing-manufacturing-pmis-show-to-what-unfathomable-extent-the-economy-has-collapsed/
This is bound to continue to have large consequences as local hedge fund guru Ray Dalio has been saying recently: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/imagine-worst-case-scenario-protect-yourself-ray-dalio-warns-virus-will-annihilate-some
There is not one doctor or scientist that has suggested exposure rates even close to that.
Please cite a source and/or post a link.
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/epidemiologist-predicts-effects-of-coronavirus-in-the-months-ahead/ Harvard experts predict 40-70% of the adult world population will be infected with COVID-19[Speechless][Speechless]
This is first hand experience from U.K.
'How I recovered from coronavirus and isolation' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51714162
See JM ...economist also covered it. Please tell me you deny climate change as well..you have a boomer vibe. Your ignorance grows tiresome. Hope you took precautions old dude. Normally your contrarian horseshit is mildly amusing...not this time. Fine line between ignorance and willful ignorance JM. You happily occupy both sides of that spectrum...good for you just hope you listened and got extra meds and toilet paper and hand sanitizer and maybe an N95 respirator or three. Fit it correctly and only wear it when you go out in public when you have to and you can wear it several times just not for long periods. Bueno suerte
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Your correct on what you say and everyone has their own investment plans, some work, some don’t. Playing the market is like getting old, “it’s not for sissies.” There will be ups and downs, rollercoaster rides, “hold on.”
I agree that there is a lot of market uncertainty. We new that something was coming in 2020, a correction or another recession. This was talked about in the a last quarter of 2018. Who knew, a virus would start it off.
I would be a fibber if I said I wasn’t scared. No one wants to be financially wiped out. Let’s keep the faith.
Timing the stock market is EXCEEDINGLY difficult, to say the least. In theory, every stock is trading at its correct price, all the time, based on known information. The market is very efficient in this regard. That said, lots of folks try!
Dave
Really, you're resorting to ad hominem attacks? Clearly you have no facts.
I've posted legitimate scientific research. Argue with Nature and Lancet. So far, you still haven't posted a source and the only source is CBS News hyperbole.
Is it possible we achieve common-cold type exposure rates? Sure. Neither CDC nor WHO have suggested anything that widespread at this point.
Stick to posting facts. Your insults are beyond tiresome. Your credentials are questionable. Your sources are non-existent.
https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1.full.pdf
https://who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
https://nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316
“This is a unique virus, with unique features. This virus is not influenza,” Tedros said Monday. “We are in uncharted territory.”
Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO’s health emergencies program, said Monday that the coronavirus isn’t transmitting the same exact way as the flu and health officials have been given a “glimmer, a chink of light” that the virus could be contained.
“Here we have a disease for which we have no vaccine, no treatment, we don’t fully understand transmission, we don’t fully understand case mortality, but what we have been genuinely heartened by is that unlike influenza, where countries have fought back, where they’ve put in place strong measures, we’ve remarkably seen that the virus is suppressed,” Ryan said.
My take. We have no clue of what this will look like in two weeks or two months or two years. Some health experts believe there will be a new strain next year. Protect yourself and family by any means you feel necessary. IMHO at this point there are no right or wrong ways to react to this except to panic. That never helps.
This was carried across multiple news outlets. Take your pick.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
the point has been made in this thread that the disease is under-reported so it seems reasonable to assume that the deaths attributed to it are also under-reported.
Jm- if I am wrong...you can gloat..if I am right...you may not be around to gloat. Sell that coin. You have posted nothing that has not already been takin into consideration with my posts. I am giving you the info I am being told at work by the drs putting it out for the gov, if you choose to ignore it is on you. Believe what you want just don’t tell people not to be prepared
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Let's see 40% exposure rate. 1% fatality rate. 7 billion people.> @keets said:
Actually, it doesn't usually work that way. The deaths are definitive. Infections may be asymptomatic.
nonsense, but you may continue the discussion with yourself.
My take is that someone one may think being isolated and stocked up may keep you safe, and that drenching yourself in had sanitizer is gonna save you, and it might if you live alone and can afford to sit this out, but for many this isn’t an option. My line of work requires essential proper blood born pathogens techniques and the training makes one a germaphobe. I see cross contamination everywhere. How do you get children to understand and it’s obvious that many adults don’t give a hoot about little bugs they can’t see when they leave a public bathroom stall and bail without washing hands or a little water sprinkled on them. I have little faith that people are going to start caring about hygiene overnight. Just now on the national news, I saw a decked out health screener at the airport adjust their glasses with a soiled gloves hand 😐.
The illness is scary when it goes through a nursing home, with actual nurses present, and it takes what it wants.
Still, there’s no way I’m gonna wear a mask everyday from this point forward. That new normal looks bleak. My job and many others don't allow for working from home. At this point I feel it’s prudent to keep some people isolated somewhat, to keep the medical facilities from getting swamped, but I think that in the end I’m resigned and prepared to get sick and hopefully survive it. I’m not so worried about me, it’s my wife, kids and immediate family that concern me the most, and the families of my coworkers and general society at large. I see a positive reset in society coming that teaches us what is truly important going forward and what we can possibly do without. I’m saddened with the prospect of the loss of group gatherings, flying, theaters, cruises etc and feel just cutting all this out is not an option.
Were social by nature and were going to have to adapt.
I think a large portion of society may be developing worry warts. I read doctors are perplexed that the virus is not affecting children as much as adults. A silver lining ?
HE>I
Yah. Send your kids to the store instead of going yourself.
So do they actually waste test kits on corpses or if confirmed that you have it and die then just automatically assume that Covid-19 was the COD?
“This is a unique virus, with unique features. This virus is not influenza,” Tedros said Monday. “We are in uncharted territory.”
The COVID19 is a lung disease. Common symptoms: fever, dry cough, difficulty breathing. There are other flu like symptoms that some people get.
+1.
Here are the latest developments:
"A breath test which could instantly pick up signs of coronavirus has been developed by British scientists."
If the breath test proves effective, it could really speed up the testing process.
The virus has mutated at least once per a Chinese preliminary study found that one strain — type “L” — of the virus was more aggressive and accounted for about 70 percent of the strains analyzed. The second — type “S” — was less aggressive and accounted for about 30 percent of analyzed strains.
They usually test before they die. But since they are still running down contacts for all infected individuals, they probably do confirm the diagnosis
People who dismiss the flu/influenza comparison are really dealing from panic and/or ignorance. Yes, it is not the flu in the same way the flu is not a common cold. But the epidemiology is similar, disease progression is similar, and even outcomes are similar.
I'd also point out for those that don't know, a LOT of common colds are caused by coronaviruses. This one is more virulent than the ones that all of us have contracted in the past, but to pretend this is something unprecedented in the annals of medicine is simply ignorant.
This is well known. Mortality rates are typically overstated in the beginning of an outbreak because of undercounting of infections. You could google it, if you like. But here's a Slate article if you care to read it.
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html
Relevant section:
"We shouldn’t be surprised that the numbers are inflated. In past epidemics, initial CFRs were floridly exaggerated. For example, in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic some early estimates were 10 times greater than the eventual CFR, of 1.28 percent. Epidemiologists think and quibble in terms of numerators and denominators—which patients were included when fractional estimates were calculated, which weren’t, were those decisions valid—and the results change a lot as a result. We are already seeing this. In the early days of the crisis in Wuhan, China, the CFR was more than 4 percent. As the virus spread to other parts of Hubei, the number fell to 2 percent. As it spread through China, the reported CFR dropped further, to 0.2 to 0.4 percent. As testing begins to include more asymptomatic and mild cases, more realistic numbers are starting to surface. New reports from the World Health Organization that estimate the global death rate of COVID-19 to be 3.4 percent, higher than previously believed, is not cause for further panic. This number is subject to the same usual forces that we would normally expect to inaccurately embellish death rate statistics early in an epidemic. If anything, it underscores just how early we are in this."
It may be as simple as the fact that children get a lot of coronavirus infections and so have higher immunity.
What percentage of people exposed to this virus actually test positive? Are there any numbers?
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SEe the link to the Slate article below for more discussion of the tendency to overstate mortality rates.
How could anyone really know?
True, just like going barefoot and playing in dirt, tho my response was intended to be TIC.
Nobody except you just now is saying it is unprecedented. What I am saying is that covid19 leads to more severe disease than seasonal flu strain and we have no immune protection against the new virus. As such social distancing and isolation to the extent possible and taking precautions particularly if you are above 60 and/or have pre-exsisting conditions such as diabetes, copd etc. you are at greater risk for a severe response. So your constant comparisons to seasonal influenza are apples and oranges and you need to stop. Yes flu is a Coronavirus, yes flu kills people (less than 1%) this one is tracking at around 3.2 but likely a bit lower as testing is just really ramping up now globally
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I didn't mention you. Although re-read this thread and see what has been said with regards to the flu comparison.
I've also never argued against taking precautions.
I read a article on msn that said the corona virus will be similar to the bird flu in 1957. they estimate one million people will die from the virus before a vaccine is made and mass produced
Actually the best exposure study to date is the cruise ship as they tested everyone before they let them off the boat. There were 3200 people on board, 600 tested positive and, I believe, 6 died. The demographic skewed older so you'd expect the mortality rate to be a bit overstated, but it should give you some idea of a near worst case exposure/infection situation as you had 3200 people on an island sharing airspace.
They did, at some point, request people stay in their rooms, but that is still a shared HVAC system and several days of free mixing of the passengers.
People should be looking at the South Korea data and the cruise ship data. South Korea had a very professional early response with several weeks of data now. And the cruise ship had the most complete testing regime on an isolated population possible.
You can do antibody studies to see exposure rates. The data exists for previous outbreaks (SARS, etc.) and for more common diseases (influenza, common coronaviruses).
In one published study, 50% of the positives were completely asymptomatic. This is a different issue, but interesting.
The other thing I've not seen published is what the false positive/false negative rates are for the test.
We just don’t know coin. Fingers crossed transmission slows late spring like traditional flu. I just worry about older folks
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For what it's worth:
Doctor issues stark warning to Congress: "Don’t just get up there and say this is a flu"
https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-05-20-intl-hnk/h_1dc74b515677b6a63ebe173d56f23878
Interesting point, but here's the question. Is the US response going to be more like South Korea or Italy? What about France?
Or Egypt? Some countries are just not responsible enough to curtail the spread. The Korea's and Japan's may not be representative given their high compliance rates.
I would definitely take the over on your 200k estimate from earlier.
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People over 80 should be concerned. The mortality rate in China was over 10% in that group. The mortality rate is quite small for people under 50 without underlying medical conditions. But if you are 70 or over or have heart/respiratory issues, you are at risk of complications.
Objectively, both of you are correct, talking past each other, and at times making the other's case for them.
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The day over day rates of new infection are not showing sustained growth:
https://worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#cases-growth-factor
Anything is still possible. Personally, I don't care if there are 2 million cases, it's the deaths which is the only real concern.
Since @mgarmy was implying 35 million fatalities, I think I'm going to be far closer. [40% infection rate with 1% mortality, before you ask or object]
So it's okay to compare Covid19 to flus as long as they are the Spanish Flu or the Bird Flu. I guess we decide the apt comparison based on number of deaths not the actual epidemiology of the disease.
How about Covid19 relative to SARS? [Covid19 is also SARS-Cov-2] Oh, never mind, not enough people died from SARS to make it a useful comparison.
My sister just got out of the hospital from pneumonia, was tested for COVID 19 isolated then cleared, whew
Where did I say 35m fatalities. I did say 40 percent exposure but also said not all of them would die. Early numbers out of China were 2 out of a 100. So worst case if the number held at 2 per on a 400m us population number is 8 mil. Not sure were the 35m came from
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That's like picking an election winner with one precinct reporting. A good estimate sure, but a limited sample size. Had they allowed them to mingle like they would have had they gone ashore and gone their separate ways who knows. Also once found out the co-mingling was curtailed or minimized.
7 billion people in the world. 40% is roughly 3 billion people. 1% fatality is 30 million+
Quite the contrary. It is a controlled experiment. It is not at all like picking an election winner by extrapolating one data point to the whole population. The cruise ship is the WHOLE POPULATION. Yes, that population is somewhat unique, but it allows for isolation of the actual interactions to be known and had a 100% test rate.