@jmski52 said: Even if so, I would really love to see how he thinks either of those years looks like today. Specific economic and demographic data with inter-market analysis would greatly enhance his contention.
The analogy was aimed at the use of leverage in a rising stock market. PerryHall more correctly perceived that I should have said 1928 or 1929. I may have some good references that I can throw into the discussion, but right now I really don't have too much time to dig for them. There are plenty of Great Depression and Stock Market Crash of 1929 histories to choose from.
There certainly is optimism in the stock market - or at least there has been for a good long time. I can almost hear someone saying that we've reached a permanent plateau or something.
I don't know any shoeshine boys personally or I might be tempted to ask one for a stock tip.
I understand the time constraints. Hopefully you will find the time to do the research to see for yourself how much is different. By research, I dont mean reading others peoples opinions using who selective information, but rather investigating actual economic data, and computing relative valuations, The one thing I think you will find the same, is the willingness of good folk to hear what they want to believe.
_I understand the time constraints. Hopefully you will find the time to do the research to see for yourself how much is different. _
I've always loved reading about finance, and the financial system in general. Tying finance and economics together - now that's another realm altogether. In my opinion, not very many people really understand the whole picture - even those who presume that they can influence pieces of it.
I know a couple of things. Leverage isn't good when there's so much of it that it creates a minefield of potential non-payment. I am experiencing a non-payment scenario right now, and I can tell you - it's maddening, even though I know that my odds of being paid are about 97.65% I can only imagine what is going to happen when there are defaults looming in the billions.
The only way to avoid massive defaults when leverage is behind it - is to monetize more debt. This is good for precious metals, whether or not you see the results sooner, or later. It's not good in general, but it's good for the precious metals.
The other thing I know right now is that my business is multiples more than the best year I've ever had, already this fiscal year. I don't even have time to figure out the reasons why. There's a lot of spending going on and it may be the tax breaks, or it may be something else. Now that I think about it, a good part of it might be because of the tax bill.
None of that accounts for what is happening to the national debt. It keeps rolling along regardless of which party is pulling the strings. It appears that Italy is now the weak link, but the debt ratios are still rising across the board. It's simply fantasyland in government finance.
Crazy times. Keep stacking.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@OPA said:
High s&h charges will turn off most bidders.
Shipping included , the cost was still less than 10x face value. I use ebay to help me convince sellers WHY their stuff isn't worth the price of silver. The cost of shipping and handling is minuscule with respect to this.
@PerryHall said:
I see this as a buying opportunity. In a few years you'll be patting yourself on the back.
Dejavu....I've been reading this type of comment since 2013....who knows, it may even come true at one point in the future.
Most buying opportunity's occur on a turnaround cycle, not by trying to catch a falling knife, while prices are tumbling.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
@PerryHall said:
I see this as a buying opportunity. In a few years you'll be patting yourself on the back.
Dejavu....I've been reading this type of comment since 2013....who knows, it may even come true at one point in the future.
Most buying opportunity's occur on a turnaround cycle, not by trying to catch a falling knife, while prices are tumbling.
No one rings a bell when it hits bottom. I've been saying this for several decades now since when gold was $35 per ounce. I'm in it for the long run which means I'm going to have to live into my 80's. LOL.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
@PerryHall said:
I see this as a buying opportunity. In a few years you'll be patting yourself on the back.
Dejavu....I've been reading this type of comment since 2013....who knows, it may even come true at one point in the future.
Most buying opportunity's occur on a turnaround cycle, not by trying to catch a falling knife, while prices are tumbling.
No one rings a bell when it hits bottom. I've been saying this for several decades now since when gold was $35 per ounce. I'm in it for the long run which means I'm going to have to live into my 80's. LOL.
Lucky you....me...into the 90's
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
I've said this before. When I listen to the market and buy heavy, silver goes down and when I sell amidst fears silver is going to fall, It goes up. I'm just going to quit reading the market and buy and sell by my gut. That way when I lose, I can blame it on indigestion. That being said, If anybody has fears of silver going down dramatically, I am a BIG player at $ 10.00 an ounce.
Bob Sr CEO Fieldtechs
If you figure out the monetary system, you don't need to figure out a market that simply doesn't want you to figure it out.
Raise your line of sight a little and you see more of the whole picture.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@Kkathyl said:
The cattle follow the rancher so until the rancher decides what direction they sit.
If silver goes to 10 or 7 I would keep buying. It’s always the average and long position as long as cash flow not an issue.
I suppose some of us are masochists at heart, trying to catch a falling knife. Eventually the wounds will be severe enough to warrant medical attention.
Never buy on a downward spiral...wait for the up tick...you won't catch the bottom, but your wallet will feel better. On the other hand, if you have 40+ years remaining in your existence on this planet, you should be ok.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
what can I say, i am young enough to see the next bull market, gold has been treated like money for over 2,000 years, as well as silver. we will see what happens when the stock market does a 50 percent retracement, in the meantime, back up the truck
@coinpalice said:
what can I say, i am young enough to see the next bull market, gold has been treated like money for over 2,000 years, as well as silver. we will see what happens when the stock market does a 50 percent retracement, in the meantime, back up the truck
That's funny because I see gold dropping from 337 in 1999 to 256 in 2001--a decline of 24%--and from $1007 to 681 in 2008/2009--a decline of 32%. These declines happened at the same time as the stock market dropped.
@cohodk - finish up the data set. What percentages were the stock market declines during those same intervals that you refer to. Note the table lists "Dates of S&P 500's Biggest Declines".
If the intervals you listed were not included in the table, one must assume that the correlation with the Biggest Declines is not invalid.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Comments
I understand the time constraints. Hopefully you will find the time to do the research to see for yourself how much is different. By research, I dont mean reading others peoples opinions using who selective information, but rather investigating actual economic data, and computing relative valuations, The one thing I think you will find the same, is the willingness of good folk to hear what they want to believe.
So how low will it go?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
_I understand the time constraints. Hopefully you will find the time to do the research to see for yourself how much is different. _
I've always loved reading about finance, and the financial system in general. Tying finance and economics together - now that's another realm altogether. In my opinion, not very many people really understand the whole picture - even those who presume that they can influence pieces of it.
I know a couple of things. Leverage isn't good when there's so much of it that it creates a minefield of potential non-payment. I am experiencing a non-payment scenario right now, and I can tell you - it's maddening, even though I know that my odds of being paid are about 97.65% I can only imagine what is going to happen when there are defaults looming in the billions.
The only way to avoid massive defaults when leverage is behind it - is to monetize more debt. This is good for precious metals, whether or not you see the results sooner, or later. It's not good in general, but it's good for the precious metals.
The other thing I know right now is that my business is multiples more than the best year I've ever had, already this fiscal year. I don't even have time to figure out the reasons why. There's a lot of spending going on and it may be the tax breaks, or it may be something else. Now that I think about it, a good part of it might be because of the tax bill.
None of that accounts for what is happening to the national debt. It keeps rolling along regardless of which party is pulling the strings. It appears that Italy is now the weak link, but the debt ratios are still rising across the board. It's simply fantasyland in government finance.
Crazy times. Keep stacking.
I knew it would happen.
Sold a 1943 Walking Liberty Half last night on eBay. In spirited bidding, it brought $1.09. With shipping, it was $4.79.
The question remains.
High s&h charges will turn off most bidders.
Designations are an odd thing sometimes. At Holiday time retailers embrace a "Black Friday".
We are living in an alternate universe at the moment. Up is down. Down is up.
100% Positive BST transactions
and CoHo is right.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Shipping included , the cost was still less than 10x face value. I use ebay to help me convince sellers WHY their stuff isn't worth the price of silver. The cost of shipping and handling is minuscule with respect to this.
Amazing, eh?
Boo!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Quote from Barcleys on Kitco' s website 6/27/2018
"Don’t Buy The Dip In Commodities, Prices Heading Lower"
http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-06-27/Don-t-Buy-The-Dip-In-Commodities-Prices-Heading-Lower-Barclays.html
need gold to hit and hold below 1250 for the pricing of the upcoming W uncirc AGE from the mint. Will save $50 buck on the coin.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
gold is the same price as it was June 28th, 2017. actually, it hasn't moved at all in 3 years
Even if prices are heading further down... great buying opportunity. Rack-em and stack-em.
I'm getting kilt in this gold market.
I'm talking physical.
that is all, except for the crying.
Yup...it's a challenge trying to catch that falling knife.
That Share of Amazon vs. 1oz of Platinum thread musta died of blushing.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
Insurance. .......from capital gains. Lol
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
dollar index down -.774
that's large.
gold up a minor amount.
trade war fears not good for a currency. good for gold.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
but gold is not responding other than to quit the plunge (for today?)
It responds more to those at the controls than it does to market fundamentals.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
@TwoSides2aCoin said:
(From 3-20-18). A bit premature, but it is a guessing game.
And corn is way above the knee. What gives ?
You may hit your guesstimate for silver, but gold is already below $1,250
I see this as a buying opportunity. In a few years you'll be patting yourself on the back.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
Dejavu....I've been reading this type of comment since 2013....who knows, it may even come true at one point in the future.
Most buying opportunity's occur on a turnaround cycle, not by trying to catch a falling knife, while prices are tumbling.
gold and oil usually go up together, not this time around, oil is doing the solo climb alone
No one rings a bell when it hits bottom. I've been saying this for several decades now since when gold was $35 per ounce. I'm in it for the long run which means I'm going to have to live into my 80's. LOL.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
Lucky you....me...into the 90's
I see what you did there
Barrytrot(2),Stupid,Savoyspecial,docq,ecoinquest, halfhunter,snman,Coll3ctor.
wondercoin. Blue594. internetjunky.
keepdachange. Scrapman1077.Ahrensdad, mrmom, mygrandeoso, blu62vette, Clackamas,giorgio11, adriana, cucamongacoin,
Nice bounce.
I hope the fed would call this slide "transitory"
" I or Tyrants " is an anagram for "transitory"
Just saying
Successful transactions with : MICHAELDIXON, Manorcourtman, Bochiman, bolivarshagnasty, AUandAG, onlyroosies, chumley, Weiss, jdimmick, BAJJERFAN, gene1978, TJM965, Smittys, GRANDAM, JTHawaii, mainejoe, softparade, derryb
Bad transactions with : nobody to date
they are calling a bottom of 1,200 for gold, I don't see it going that low myself
http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-07-03/Gold-s-Selloff-Isn-t-Over-Yet-Prices-Could-Drop-To-1-200-ABN-Amro.html
Cheap is as cheap does.
Only $40 to go.
If it goes below $1,200 I can say with 100% certainty that it is still gold.
I knew it would happen.
If it goes to $1200 it would still be 40% higher than it was in 2009 and 50% lower than it was in 2012. ( or thereabouts ).
The cattle follow the rancher so until the rancher decides what direction they sit.
If silver goes to 10 or 7 I would keep buying. It’s always the average and long position as long as cash flow not an issue.
Best place to buy !
Bronze Associate member
I've said this before. When I listen to the market and buy heavy, silver goes down and when I sell amidst fears silver is going to fall, It goes up. I'm just going to quit reading the market and buy and sell by my gut. That way when I lose, I can blame it on indigestion. That being said, If anybody has fears of silver going down dramatically, I am a BIG player at $ 10.00 an ounce.
Bob Sr CEO Fieldtechs
If you figure out the monetary system, you don't need to figure out a market that simply doesn't want you to figure it out.
Raise your line of sight a little and you see more of the whole picture.
I knew it would happen.
I suppose some of us are masochists at heart, trying to catch a falling knife. Eventually the wounds will be severe enough to warrant medical attention.
Never buy on a downward spiral...wait for the up tick...you won't catch the bottom, but your wallet will feel better. On the other hand, if you have 40+ years remaining in your existence on this planet, you should be ok.
Its like watching paint dry.
A bit lower, but the coming Deutsche Bank failure will help send it to the moon.
Keep On Stackin'. . .
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
$28 to go.
what can I say, i am young enough to see the next bull market, gold has been treated like money for over 2,000 years, as well as silver. we will see what happens when the stock market does a 50 percent retracement, in the meantime, back up the truck
What did gold do during the last 2 retracements?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
gold did very well
That's funny because I see gold dropping from 337 in 1999 to 256 in 2001--a decline of 24%--and from $1007 to 681 in 2008/2009--a decline of 32%. These declines happened at the same time as the stock market dropped.
Ain't no lyin' about that figurin.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
@cohodk - finish up the data set. What percentages were the stock market declines during those same intervals that you refer to. Note the table lists "Dates of S&P 500's Biggest Declines".
If the intervals you listed were not included in the table, one must assume that the correlation with the Biggest Declines is not invalid.
I knew it would happen.