"In the meantime, unless the ranges for USD/CNY or XAU/CNY are broken, the range for Gold is 1176-1338 based on the CNY, and more broadly 1131-1387 based on the SDR. Suffice to say that China is in control of Gold now, and this diminishes the power of the COMEX to manipulate Gold prices. That said, the Bullion Banks likely have the inside track on what’s next for Gold, so if you see them loading up on long side, that is a good sign that Gold is going higher."
Note: The largest bullion banks are Barclays Bank PLC, ScotiaMocatta, Deutsche Bank AG, HSBC Bank, JPMorgan Chase Bank and UBS AG.
How low it will go now depends on China's next move in both the ongoing currency war and the new tariff war.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Black Monday 1987 Stock Market Crash - In 1987 stocks fell a whopping 38.9% from their peak to October crash. At the same time, Gold rose 5%. Stocks did eke out a paltry 2.26% gain in 1987. Gold rose more than 20%.
Iraq Invasion of Kuwait 1990 Stock Market Decline - After Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, stocks fell nearly 22.5%. Gold rose more than 7.5%.
Dot Com 2001 Stock Market Correction - In the summer of 2001 the Dow lost more than 27%. Gold gained slightly more than 1%. For the year, stocks lost about 7%. Gold remained positive.
Financial Crisis/Great Recession 2008 Stock Market Crash - From the beginning of 2008 until October 27th, stocks lost nearly 39%. Gold, down too, still outperformed stocks by a factor of two. Stocks lost about 34% in 2008. Gold provided a 5% gain.
While it has been shown that the money EVENTUALLY runs back to equities (especially when the FED prints money to throw at them) Gold is a proven safe haven, even if only a short term one.
I want to be in gold the next time, where do you want to be?
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Gold is a proven safe haven, even if only a short term one.
I want to be in gold the next time, where do you want to be?
Throw BS all you want. It's what you do. My numbers are real. Gold suffered large declines during previous asset repricings. To deny that proves ignorance.
And where would I want to be?...In the one thing you despise more than anything...USDollars...CASH.
I would hope you can see the insanity of holding something for a decade or more just to be "right" for a short time.
Your other post is beyond comical. While it is a ridiculous notion anyway, I can't stop laughing that you would cheer China being in "control" of gold prices.
@morgansforever said:
Thinking bout buying gold bars at 1200. Why not, seems like a bottom floor, how much lower can it go?
You may not have long to wait....down to $2,015 this AM
I think you might be wrong.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
At $2,015 I might be tempted to lighten up a little...…….
@cohodk said: So my point....gold has shown it ain't gonna save your ass if stocks drop contrary to the widely held and incorrect notion in this forum.
I have a very vivid recollection that gold rebounded amazingly fast after the dot.com meltdown, while stocks took years to recover.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
At $2,015 I might be tempted to lighten up a little...…….
@cohodk said: So my point....gold has shown it ain't gonna save your ass if stocks drop contrary to the widely held and incorrect notion in this forum.
I have a very vivid recollection that gold rebounded amazingly fast after the dot.com meltdown, while stocks took years to recover.
I guess that depends on what stocks you owned. Many stocks doubled, tripled, quadrupled or more.
Do you have a vivid memory of the 20-TWENTY-years preceeding? Maybe your memory is better over the last 10?
Everyday that the relativite valuations widen, the better some assets look. Eventually the sun will shine....unfortunately many have already drowned or have been swept so far down stream they may never catch up.
@cohodk said: Do you have a vivid memory of the 20-TWENTY-years preceeding? Maybe your memory is better over the last 10?
Yes, I remember making more in one day in 1979 in mini forward contracts than my annual salary at the time. And that was just one day, there were many good days...…..
I also remember getting out semi-permanently (for the next 15 years) when I lost $1,000 trying to tippey-toe back into that market in 1981 when it was already terminal.
I remember doubling my money on a roll of Canadian Platinum Maples when I started back into PMs in 1996. It's always an advantage to have a low cost basis.
@cohodk said: I guess that depends on what stocks you owned. Many stocks doubled, tripled, quadrupled or more.
I had some of those in the runup. I also lost every cent in my speculative IRA portfolio with the likes of Broadcom, Lucent, and a few others. It was my own fault - I was building a house mostly paid for by Sprint PCS and SGS Thomson Microelectronics, and not paying too much attention.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I also lost every cent in my speculative IRA portfolio with the likes of Broadcom, Lucent, and a few others. It was my own fault - I was building a house mostly paid for by Sprint PCS and SGS Thomson Microelectronics, and not paying too much attention.
So why you blame the markets when you admit you screwed up?
Interesting comment though....you saI'd you built your house with profits from stocks. I've heard many others say the same. But I've never heard anyone say theyve built a house with profits from gold or silver.
@cohodk said: you said you built your house with profits from stocks. I've heard many others say the same. But I've never heard anyone say they've built a house with profits from gold or silver.
Scroll up. The profits from those precious metals mini forward contracts bought an A-frame cabin at a lake resort and paid for my ex-wife's law school education.
@cohodk said: why you blame the markets when you admit you screwed up?
I didn't blame the markets. Didn't I say that it was my fault? I was recounting that it was possible to lose money in that 20 year interval you cited, and I note that it was certainly possible to both win big and lose big with stocks in that time period. Stocks aren't a panacea any more than precious metals are.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
There is a direct relationship between the smashing of gold prices and the lack of stability of the banking industry. Current spot gold prices indicate growing fear among the dollar makers.
Physical gold market determines premiums only. All else is determined by those big and powerful enough to control spot prices on the futures markets.
It will continue lower until fear in powerful places subsides.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
well, this is a currency war I think we are going to lose.
there is a lot more wiggle room in other central banks. ours affects employment or inflation ONLY. Thank You.
China can keep devaluing to hurt us. And the EU can hold off of their "normalization" in response to economic conditions.
we can't even discuss economic conditions outside of E & I.
I see the dollar strengthening even more, thus the outlook for gold is down. Trump can complain about the strong dollar but talking it down is totally different. It's real soon when people realize nothing can be done about it in the usa.
The best idea I had was for the treasury to both tank the currency and unflatten the long end of the yield curve. Just sell more 30 year bonds than we need. Sit on the cash. let the dollar eat it for a while. outside of that, anyone else have a way to bring down the dollar?
@MsMorrisine said:
I see the dollar strengthening even more, thus the outlook for gold is down.
How long can the dollar continue to strengthen with our ballooning national debt?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
@derryb said:
There is a direct relationship between the smashing of gold prices and the lack of stability of the banking industry. Current spot gold prices indicate growing fear among the dollar makers.
In the past you have always said that instability in the banks will lead to HIGHER gold prices. Now you say opposite?
Growing fear in the dollar is causing gold to lose value vs the dollar?
Seriously, it is so difficult to have a rational, logical, and intelligent discussion with you.
@derryb said:
There is a direct relationship between the smashing of gold prices and the lack of stability of the banking industry. Current spot gold prices indicate growing fear among the dollar makers.
In the past you have always said that instability in the banks will lead to HIGHER gold prices. Now you say opposite?
Growing fear in the dollar is causing gold to lose value vs the dollar?
Seriously, it is so difficult to have a rational, logical, and intelligent discussion with you.
Instability in the banks does lead to higher gold prices. But before that can happen, as in the last crisis, gold gets smashed until the smashers can no longer smash. Current, growing fear in the dollar's future by its makers is causing them to once again smash the futures price. Just as before, and we all saw the result. . . record gold prices will result.
Don't bother with a discussion with me, your mind is far too narrow.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
I have a headache after reading all this junk in this thread. > @MsMorrisine said:
well, this is a currency war I think we are going to lose.
The best idea I had was for the treasury to both tank the currency and unflatten the long end of the yield curve. Just sell more 30 year bonds than we need. Sit on the cash. let the dollar eat it for a while. outside of that, anyone else have a way to bring down the dollar?
Further lower if China continues to devalue the Yaun. In response to the Trump tariffs, the Chinese have allowed the Yuan to fall, and in doing so, the price of gold has been dragged down as well.
If China has something to do with it, it's because they know the value of it, historically. They're not exactly selling their gold Pandas for less than our gold Eagles.
The bottom is so near the top that the margins disappear in the short term. Let's keep it in perspective. Gold is 40 % higher now than it was last decade. And silver is where silver was a decade ago. I'm still curious about the "floor" when we think (we know) it's in the basement.
@ShadyDave said: anyone else have a way to bring down the dollar?
To start, stop raising interest rates....
To force rates down, they will have to create more dollars, en mass. That's the standard approach and I don't know that there's another way to do it. Allowing rates and the value of the dollar to both rise puts the Treasury debt into an untenable position for refinancing the debt, so they can't continue on this course for very long without blowing up the system. Bank liquidity also becomes a problem and a contagion of bank failures is a possibility if the free flow of new money is curtailed.
As mere mortals, we never get to know what's going on in the rarified circles of banking finance until the horse is out of the gate.
The problem of devaluing the dollar with more debt to force rates down - is the fact that other countries are devaluing their currencies even faster, for mainly the same reasons, so the question is one of relativity. At some point, Austrian Economics will re-assert and all this global monetary inflation will be reflected in price increases across the board.
It would help to reduce the costs of refinancing the debt by simply removing the Fed middleman from the equation and letting the Treasury print their own money to finance their own debt. The bond markets would determine the bond values, just like they already do. The Fed exists to be overpaid for doing exactly nothing.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Let the gub'mint pay entities with newly made cash. Sure that'd cost money, but they are printing that already.
Fund those liabilities with the $100's
Of course storing hundreds is an issue. For that, the Treasury will take massive amounts of 100's and give the federal reserve million dollar notes. The only place million dollar notes are legal is between the treasury and the federal reserve banks.
Of course this is another idea that will never happen.
The gub'mint will prefer to slowly embarrass itself.
dollar index -.111 to 96.246 and gold down 10.50, apparently catching up for friday. I bought a lot of gold with that 10% ebay bonus and a flat gold market.
Comments
Roughly...the Sp500 was down about 21% and 42% respectively.
So my point....gold has shown it ain't gonna save your ass if stocks drop contrary to the widely held and incorrect notion in this forum.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
CHINA takes control of GOLD from the COMEX
"In the meantime, unless the ranges for USD/CNY or XAU/CNY are broken, the range for Gold is 1176-1338 based on the CNY, and more broadly 1131-1387 based on the SDR. Suffice to say that China is in control of Gold now, and this diminishes the power of the COMEX to manipulate Gold prices. That said, the Bullion Banks likely have the inside track on what’s next for Gold, so if you see them loading up on long side, that is a good sign that Gold is going higher."
Note: The largest bullion banks are Barclays Bank PLC, ScotiaMocatta, Deutsche Bank AG, HSBC Bank, JPMorgan Chase Bank and UBS AG.
How low it will go now depends on China's next move in both the ongoing currency war and the new tariff war.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Gotta throw the BS flag on that one.
Why You Should Own Gold In Times of Financial Crisis
Black Monday 1987 Stock Market Crash - In 1987 stocks fell a whopping 38.9% from their peak to October crash. At the same time, Gold rose 5%. Stocks did eke out a paltry 2.26% gain in 1987. Gold rose more than 20%.
Iraq Invasion of Kuwait 1990 Stock Market Decline - After Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, stocks fell nearly 22.5%. Gold rose more than 7.5%.
Dot Com 2001 Stock Market Correction - In the summer of 2001 the Dow lost more than 27%. Gold gained slightly more than 1%. For the year, stocks lost about 7%. Gold remained positive.
Financial Crisis/Great Recession 2008 Stock Market Crash - From the beginning of 2008 until October 27th, stocks lost nearly 39%. Gold, down too, still outperformed stocks by a factor of two. Stocks lost about 34% in 2008. Gold provided a 5% gain.
While it has been shown that the money EVENTUALLY runs back to equities (especially when the FED prints money to throw at them) Gold is a proven safe haven, even if only a short term one.
I want to be in gold the next time, where do you want to be?
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
Gold is a proven safe haven, even if only a short term one.
Throw BS all you want. It's what you do. My numbers are real. Gold suffered large declines during previous asset repricings. To deny that proves ignorance.
And where would I want to be?...In the one thing you despise more than anything...USDollars...CASH.
I would hope you can see the insanity of holding something for a decade or more just to be "right" for a short time.
Your other post is beyond comical. While it is a ridiculous notion anyway, I can't stop laughing that you would cheer China being in "control" of gold prices.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
China took control of the London Metal Exchange a few years ago, as well.
They run WalMart, too. Where everyone buys for less.
Not a bad call made on 3/20/2018....So what's your call for a bottom?
Overnight low was 1220 and change
Thinking bout buying gold bars at 1200. Why not, seems like a bottom floor, how much lower can it go?
You may not have long to wait....down to $1,215 this AM
Thanks OPA. All I can predict is "lower". A number hardly matters, with how we operate in the red. .
morning low 1210.7
Worms don't pat.
Stacker heaven!
The entry point is key (economically) . The key always matters (numismatically) . Sorry. It's the coin geek in me.
Palladium is getting hammered, too! $863.90!
My YouTube Channel
I think you might be wrong.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
how many days in a row can gold drop?
dollar index now 94.597 @ down .557
gold @ 1228.6 up 4.60
At $2,015 I might be tempted to lighten up a little...…….
@cohodk said: So my point....gold has shown it ain't gonna save your ass if stocks drop contrary to the widely held and incorrect notion in this forum.
I have a very vivid recollection that gold rebounded amazingly fast after the dot.com meltdown, while stocks took years to recover.
I knew it would happen.
I guess that depends on what stocks you owned. Many stocks doubled, tripled, quadrupled or more.
Do you have a vivid memory of the 20-TWENTY-years preceeding? Maybe your memory is better over the last 10?
Everyday that the relativite valuations widen, the better some assets look. Eventually the sun will shine....unfortunately many have already drowned or have been swept so far down stream they may never catch up.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
@cohodk said: Do you have a vivid memory of the 20-TWENTY-years preceeding? Maybe your memory is better over the last 10?
Yes, I remember making more in one day in 1979 in mini forward contracts than my annual salary at the time. And that was just one day, there were many good days...…..
I also remember getting out semi-permanently (for the next 15 years) when I lost $1,000 trying to tippey-toe back into that market in 1981 when it was already terminal.
I remember doubling my money on a roll of Canadian Platinum Maples when I started back into PMs in 1996. It's always an advantage to have a low cost basis.
@cohodk said: I guess that depends on what stocks you owned. Many stocks doubled, tripled, quadrupled or more.
I had some of those in the runup. I also lost every cent in my speculative IRA portfolio with the likes of Broadcom, Lucent, and a few others. It was my own fault - I was building a house mostly paid for by Sprint PCS and SGS Thomson Microelectronics, and not paying too much attention.
I knew it would happen.
let me know if it gets annoying:
Dollar Index - 94.52 -.634
gold 1230.3 up 6.30
=====================
2:10pm Est
dollar index - 94.384 -.771
gold 1231.5 up 7.50
gold futures pit closes at 1:30 pm Est so this run after that on a Friday is different
I also lost every cent in my speculative IRA portfolio with the likes of Broadcom, Lucent, and a few others. It was my own fault - I was building a house mostly paid for by Sprint PCS and SGS Thomson Microelectronics, and not paying too much attention.
So why you blame the markets when you admit you screwed up?
Interesting comment though....you saI'd you built your house with profits from stocks. I've heard many others say the same. But I've never heard anyone say theyve built a house with profits from gold or silver.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
back in the day one guy at my work bought a Ferrari. that could have been a small house.
Built a few years ago for me and the missus when gold was higher. Boy, have I taken a haircut!
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
@cohodk said: you said you built your house with profits from stocks. I've heard many others say the same. But I've never heard anyone say they've built a house with profits from gold or silver.
Scroll up. The profits from those precious metals mini forward contracts bought an A-frame cabin at a lake resort and paid for my ex-wife's law school education.
@cohodk said: why you blame the markets when you admit you screwed up?
I didn't blame the markets. Didn't I say that it was my fault? I was recounting that it was possible to lose money in that 20 year interval you cited, and I note that it was certainly possible to both win big and lose big with stocks in that time period. Stocks aren't a panacea any more than precious metals are.
I knew it would happen.
@dpoole said: Built a few years ago for me and the missus when gold was higher
Man, you spent all your money on roofing & siding and didn't have any for doors or windows! How was the insulation value of those bricks? Pretty good?
I knew it would happen.
There is a direct relationship between the smashing of gold prices and the lack of stability of the banking industry. Current spot gold prices indicate growing fear among the dollar makers.
Physical gold market determines premiums only. All else is determined by those big and powerful enough to control spot prices on the futures markets.
It will continue lower until fear in powerful places subsides.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
well, this is a currency war I think we are going to lose.
there is a lot more wiggle room in other central banks. ours affects employment or inflation ONLY. Thank You.
China can keep devaluing to hurt us. And the EU can hold off of their "normalization" in response to economic conditions.
we can't even discuss economic conditions outside of E & I.
I see the dollar strengthening even more, thus the outlook for gold is down. Trump can complain about the strong dollar but talking it down is totally different. It's real soon when people realize nothing can be done about it in the usa.
The best idea I had was for the treasury to both tank the currency and unflatten the long end of the yield curve. Just sell more 30 year bonds than we need. Sit on the cash. let the dollar eat it for a while. outside of that, anyone else have a way to bring down the dollar?
How long can the dollar continue to strengthen with our ballooning national debt?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
it's not about the u.s. dollar getting stronger, other currencies around the world are just getting weaker
Relativity my dear friend.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
In the past you have always said that instability in the banks will lead to HIGHER gold prices. Now you say opposite?
Growing fear in the dollar is causing gold to lose value vs the dollar?
Seriously, it is so difficult to have a rational, logical, and intelligent discussion with you.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Instability in the banks does lead to higher gold prices. But before that can happen, as in the last crisis, gold gets smashed until the smashers can no longer smash. Current, growing fear in the dollar's future by its makers is causing them to once again smash the futures price. Just as before, and we all saw the result. . . record gold prices will result.
Don't bother with a discussion with me, your mind is far too narrow.
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
dollar index - 94.241 -.208
gold 1234.8 up 3.70
G-20 Communique Removes Pledge To Refrain From Competitive Devaluation
https://zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-22/g-20-communique-removes-pledge-refrain-competitive-devaluation
Gosh, why would the G-20 do such a thing?
I knew it would happen.
I have a headache after reading all this junk in this thread. > @MsMorrisine said:
To start, stop raising interest rates....
Further lower if China continues to devalue the Yaun. In response to the Trump tariffs, the Chinese have allowed the Yuan to fall, and in doing so, the price of gold has been dragged down as well.
Potential Impacts of the Yuan-Gold Peg
The past 30 days. Yaun-dollar exchange rate (black) vs. COMEX gold price (blue):
Natural forces of supply and demand are the best regulators on earth.
If China has something to do with it, it's because they know the value of it, historically. They're not exactly selling their gold Pandas for less than our gold Eagles.
The bottom is so near the top that the margins disappear in the short term. Let's keep it in perspective. Gold is 40 % higher now than it was last decade. And silver is where silver was a decade ago. I'm still curious about the "floor" when we think (we know) it's in the basement.
Gold & Silver still dropping
Gold @ $1,209
Silver @ $15.31
Per Kitco's website: "Gold Bears Are Just Getting Started; Look For $1,000"
http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-08-02/Gold-Bears-Are-Just-Getting-Started-Look-For-1-000-Asbury-Research.html
dollar index 95.174 +0.55
gold -11.70
when the dollar index was -.33 earlier in the week, gold was up only a couple of bucks.
this is what they mean by elevator down and stairs up.
The current PM market reminds me of this add:
"I've fallen & I can't get up."
Gold $1,208
Silver $15.25
^^^ I literally fell off of my bed laughing
possible good news? maybe, maybe not?
dollar index up a very large 0.892 to 96.396, gold only down 60 cents
@ShadyDave said: anyone else have a way to bring down the dollar?
To start, stop raising interest rates....
To force rates down, they will have to create more dollars, en mass. That's the standard approach and I don't know that there's another way to do it. Allowing rates and the value of the dollar to both rise puts the Treasury debt into an untenable position for refinancing the debt, so they can't continue on this course for very long without blowing up the system. Bank liquidity also becomes a problem and a contagion of bank failures is a possibility if the free flow of new money is curtailed.
As mere mortals, we never get to know what's going on in the rarified circles of banking finance until the horse is out of the gate.
The problem of devaluing the dollar with more debt to force rates down - is the fact that other countries are devaluing their currencies even faster, for mainly the same reasons, so the question is one of relativity. At some point, Austrian Economics will re-assert and all this global monetary inflation will be reflected in price increases across the board.
It would help to reduce the costs of refinancing the debt by simply removing the Fed middleman from the equation and letting the Treasury print their own money to finance their own debt. The bond markets would determine the bond values, just like they already do. The Fed exists to be overpaid for doing exactly nothing.
I knew it would happen.
Tank the dollar by literally printing more money
Let the gub'mint pay entities with newly made cash. Sure that'd cost money, but they are printing that already.
Fund those liabilities with the $100's
Of course storing hundreds is an issue. For that, the Treasury will take massive amounts of 100's and give the federal reserve million dollar notes. The only place million dollar notes are legal is between the treasury and the federal reserve banks.
Of course this is another idea that will never happen.
The gub'mint will prefer to slowly embarrass itself.
dollar index -.111 to 96.246 and gold down 10.50, apparently catching up for friday.
I bought a lot of gold with that 10% ebay bonus and a flat gold market. 
Here's your chance....
Gold....$1,199
Silver...$15.17......(Will it drop below $15 within the next 2 weeks?0
wow, under 1,200-bad time to be in the mining business. all the better deals I got 2 months ago are not really good deals anymore