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How low will it go ?

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  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,147 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 13, 2018 3:57AM

    @jmski52 said:
    Even if so, I would really love to see how he thinks either of those years looks like today. Specific economic and demographic data with inter-market analysis would greatly enhance his contention.

    The analogy was aimed at the use of leverage in a rising stock market. PerryHall more correctly perceived that I should have said 1928 or 1929. I may have some good references that I can throw into the discussion, but right now I really don't have too much time to dig for them. There are plenty of Great Depression and Stock Market Crash of 1929 histories to choose from.

    There certainly is optimism in the stock market - or at least there has been for a good long time. I can almost hear someone saying that we've reached a permanent plateau or something.

    I don't know any shoeshine boys personally or I might be tempted to ask one for a stock tip. :)

    I understand the time constraints. Hopefully you will find the time to do the research to see for yourself how much is different. By research, I dont mean reading others peoples opinions using who selective information, but rather investigating actual economic data, and computing relative valuations, The one thing I think you will find the same, is the willingness of good folk to hear what they want to believe.

    So how low will it go?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,864 ✭✭✭✭✭

    _I understand the time constraints. Hopefully you will find the time to do the research to see for yourself how much is different. _

    I've always loved reading about finance, and the financial system in general. Tying finance and economics together - now that's another realm altogether. In my opinion, not very many people really understand the whole picture - even those who presume that they can influence pieces of it.

    I know a couple of things. Leverage isn't good when there's so much of it that it creates a minefield of potential non-payment. I am experiencing a non-payment scenario right now, and I can tell you - it's maddening, even though I know that my odds of being paid are about 97.65% I can only imagine what is going to happen when there are defaults looming in the billions.

    The only way to avoid massive defaults when leverage is behind it - is to monetize more debt. This is good for precious metals, whether or not you see the results sooner, or later. It's not good in general, but it's good for the precious metals.

    The other thing I know right now is that my business is multiples more than the best year I've ever had, already this fiscal year. I don't even have time to figure out the reasons why. There's a lot of spending going on and it may be the tax breaks, or it may be something else. Now that I think about it, a good part of it might be because of the tax bill.

    None of that accounts for what is happening to the national debt. It keeps rolling along regardless of which party is pulling the strings. It appears that Italy is now the weak link, but the debt ratios are still rising across the board. It's simply fantasyland in government finance.

    Crazy times. Keep stacking.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,294 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 26, 2018 5:42AM

    Sold a 1943 Walking Liberty Half last night on eBay. In spirited bidding, it brought $1.09. With shipping, it was $4.79.
    The question remains.

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,121 ✭✭✭✭✭

    High s&h charges will turn off most bidders. ;)

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • KollectorKingKollectorKing Posts: 4,820 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @TwoSides2aCoin said:
    Back up the truck.

  • BLUEJAYWAYBLUEJAYWAY Posts: 9,159 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @PerryHall said:

    @cohodk said:

    @jmski52 said:
    Leverage. Reinvestment. Huge opportunity.

    Sounds like 1927.

    Please expound.

    He may have meant 1929 just before the stock market crashed on "Black Friday" which ushered in the Great Depression.

    Designations are an odd thing sometimes. At Holiday time retailers embrace a "Black Friday".

    Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
  • metalmeistermetalmeister Posts: 4,586 ✭✭✭✭✭

    We are living in an alternate universe at the moment. Up is down. Down is up.

    email: ccacollectibles@yahoo.com

    100% Positive BST transactions
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,828 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @metalmeister said:
    We are living in an alternate universe at the moment. Up is down. Down is up.

    and CoHo is right.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,294 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @OPA said:
    High s&h charges will turn off most bidders. ;)

    Shipping included , the cost was still less than 10x face value. I use ebay to help me convince sellers WHY their stuff isn't worth the price of silver. The cost of shipping and handling is minuscule with respect to this.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,147 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 27, 2018 1:33PM

    @derryb said:

    @metalmeister said:
    We are living in an alternate universe at the moment. Up is down. Down is up.

    and CoHo is right.

    Amazing, eh?

    Boo!!

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,121 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Quote from Barcleys on Kitco' s website 6/27/2018

    "Don’t Buy The Dip In Commodities, Prices Heading Lower"

    http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-06-27/Don-t-Buy-The-Dip-In-Commodities-Prices-Heading-Lower-Barclays.html

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,828 ✭✭✭✭✭

    need gold to hit and hold below 1250 for the pricing of the upcoming W uncirc AGE from the mint. Will save $50 buck on the coin.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • coinpalicecoinpalice Posts: 2,453 ✭✭✭✭✭

    gold is the same price as it was June 28th, 2017. actually, it hasn't moved at all in 3 years

  • dennis1219dennis1219 Posts: 267 ✭✭✭

    Even if prices are heading further down... great buying opportunity. Rack-em and stack-em.

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,092 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I'm getting kilt in this gold market.

    I'm talking physical.

    that is all, except for the crying.

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,121 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dennis1219 said:
    Even if prices are heading further down... great buying opportunity. Rack-em and stack-em.

    Yup...it's a challenge trying to catch that falling knife. ;)

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • dpooledpoole Posts: 5,940 ✭✭✭✭✭

    That Share of Amazon vs. 1oz of Platinum thread musta died of blushing. ;)

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,147 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @coinpalice said:
    gold is the same price as it was June 28th, 2017. actually, it hasn't moved at all in 3 years

    Insurance. .......from capital gains. Lol

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,092 ✭✭✭✭✭

    dollar index down -.774

    that's large.

    gold up a minor amount.

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,828 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 29, 2018 7:42AM

    @MsMorrisine said:
    dollar index down -.774

    that's large.

    gold up a minor amount.

    trade war fears not good for a currency. good for gold.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,092 ✭✭✭✭✭

    but gold is not responding other than to quit the plunge (for today?)

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,828 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MsMorrisine said:
    but gold is not responding other than to quit the plunge (for today?)

    It responds more to those at the controls than it does to market fundamentals.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,294 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 2, 2018 5:27AM

    @TwoSides2aCoin said:

    So, silver goes down to $15.35 and gold goes down to $1275. This is my short term prediction.

    (From 3-20-18). A bit premature, but it is a guessing game.
    And corn is way above the knee. What gives ?

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,121 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @TwoSides2aCoin said:
    @TwoSides2aCoin said:

    So, silver goes down to $15.35 and gold goes down to $1275. This is my short term prediction.

    (From 3-20-18). A bit premature, but it is a guessing game.
    And corn is way above the knee. What gives ?

    You may hit your guesstimate for silver, but gold is already below $1,250 ;)

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 46,144 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I see this as a buying opportunity. In a few years you'll be patting yourself on the back.

    Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
    "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
    "Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,121 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 2, 2018 6:24AM

    @PerryHall said:
    I see this as a buying opportunity. In a few years you'll be patting yourself on the back.

    Dejavu....I've been reading this type of comment since 2013....who knows, it may even come true at one point in the future.
    Most buying opportunity's occur on a turnaround cycle, not by trying to catch a falling knife, while prices are tumbling.

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • coinpalicecoinpalice Posts: 2,453 ✭✭✭✭✭

    gold and oil usually go up together, not this time around, oil is doing the solo climb alone

  • PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 46,144 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @OPA said:

    @PerryHall said:
    I see this as a buying opportunity. In a few years you'll be patting yourself on the back.

    Dejavu....I've been reading this type of comment since 2013....who knows, it may even come true at one point in the future.
    Most buying opportunity's occur on a turnaround cycle, not by trying to catch a falling knife, while prices are tumbling.

    No one rings a bell when it hits bottom. I've been saying this for several decades now since when gold was $35 per ounce. I'm in it for the long run which means I'm going to have to live into my 80's. LOL.

    Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
    "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
    "Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,121 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @PerryHall said:

    @OPA said:

    @PerryHall said:
    I see this as a buying opportunity. In a few years you'll be patting yourself on the back.

    Dejavu....I've been reading this type of comment since 2013....who knows, it may even come true at one point in the future.
    Most buying opportunity's occur on a turnaround cycle, not by trying to catch a falling knife, while prices are tumbling.

    No one rings a bell when it hits bottom. I've been saying this for several decades now since when gold was $35 per ounce. I'm in it for the long run which means I'm going to have to live into my 80's. LOL.

    Lucky you....me...into the 90's :p

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • hammered54hammered54 Posts: 750 ✭✭✭

    @rawteam1 said:
    Depends...

    I see what you did there :)

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  • CaptHenwayCaptHenway Posts: 32,166 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Nice bounce.

    Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,092 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I hope the fed would call this slide "transitory"

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • 1630Boston1630Boston Posts: 13,782 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MsMorrisine said:
    I hope the fed would call this slide "transitory"

    " I or Tyrants " is an anagram for "transitory" :smile:
    Just saying :smile:

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  • coinpalicecoinpalice Posts: 2,453 ✭✭✭✭✭

    they are calling a bottom of 1,200 for gold, I don't see it going that low myself

    http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-07-03/Gold-s-Selloff-Isn-t-Over-Yet-Prices-Could-Drop-To-1-200-ABN-Amro.html

  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,294 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 13, 2018 9:36AM

    Cheap is as cheap does.

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,121 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @coinpalice said:
    they are calling a bottom of 1,200 for gold, I don't see it going that low myself

    http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-07-03/Gold-s-Selloff-Isn-t-Over-Yet-Prices-Could-Drop-To-1-200-ABN-Amro.html

    Only $40 to go. :/

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,864 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If it goes below $1,200 I can say with 100% certainty that it is still gold.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,294 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    If it goes below $1,200 I can say with 100% certainty that it is still gold.

    If it goes to $1200 it would still be 40% higher than it was in 2009 and 50% lower than it was in 2012. ( or thereabouts ).

  • KkathylKkathyl Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The cattle follow the rancher so until the rancher decides what direction they sit.

    If silver goes to 10 or 7 I would keep buying. It’s always the average and long position as long as cash flow not an issue.

    Best place to buy !
    Bronze Associate member

  • bobsrbobsr Posts: 392 ✭✭✭✭

    I've said this before. When I listen to the market and buy heavy, silver goes down and when I sell amidst fears silver is going to fall, It goes up. I'm just going to quit reading the market and buy and sell by my gut. That way when I lose, I can blame it on indigestion. That being said, If anybody has fears of silver going down dramatically, I am a BIG player at $ 10.00 an ounce.
    Bob Sr CEO Fieldtechs

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,864 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If you figure out the monetary system, you don't need to figure out a market that simply doesn't want you to figure it out.
    Raise your line of sight a little and you see more of the whole picture.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,121 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Kkathyl said:
    The cattle follow the rancher so until the rancher decides what direction they sit.

    If silver goes to 10 or 7 I would keep buying. It’s always the average and long position as long as cash flow not an issue.

    I suppose some of us are masochists at heart, trying to catch a falling knife. Eventually the wounds will be severe enough to warrant medical attention.
    Never buy on a downward spiral...wait for the up tick...you won't catch the bottom, but your wallet will feel better. On the other hand, if you have 40+ years remaining in your existence on this planet, you should be ok. B)

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • Its like watching paint dry.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,828 ✭✭✭✭✭

    A bit lower, but the coming Deutsche Bank failure will help send it to the moon.

    Keep On Stackin'. . .

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,121 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @coinpalice said:
    they are calling a bottom of 1,200 for gold, I don't see it going that low myself

    http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-07-03/Gold-s-Selloff-Isn-t-Over-Yet-Prices-Could-Drop-To-1-200-ABN-Amro.html

    $28 to go. B)

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • coinpalicecoinpalice Posts: 2,453 ✭✭✭✭✭

    what can I say, i am young enough to see the next bull market, gold has been treated like money for over 2,000 years, as well as silver. we will see what happens when the stock market does a 50 percent retracement, in the meantime, back up the truck

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,147 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @coinpalice said:
    what can I say, i am young enough to see the next bull market, gold has been treated like money for over 2,000 years, as well as silver. we will see what happens when the stock market does a 50 percent retracement, in the meantime, back up the truck

    What did gold do during the last 2 retracements?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • coinpalicecoinpalice Posts: 2,453 ✭✭✭✭✭

    gold did very well

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,147 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 17, 2018 8:50AM

    That's funny because I see gold dropping from 337 in 1999 to 256 in 2001--a decline of 24%--and from $1007 to 681 in 2008/2009--a decline of 32%. These declines happened at the same time as the stock market dropped.

    Ain't no lyin' about that figurin.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,864 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 17, 2018 8:57AM

    @cohodk - finish up the data set. What percentages were the stock market declines during those same intervals that you refer to. Note the table lists "Dates of S&P 500's Biggest Declines".

    If the intervals you listed were not included in the table, one must assume that the correlation with the Biggest Declines is not invalid.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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