I'm surprised the regular unc set is beating this one.
I'm thinking it is not on the average person's radar
I agree...which is why I think it ends up a long term winner. Especially if, as appears to be the case, the final mintage is going to be closer to 200,000 than 225,000.
I'm surprised the regular unc set is beating this one.
Might have something to do with the US Mint giving free standard shipping if you buy at least one 2017 Unc set in your order. I got an email about a week ago with a coupon code from the US Mint.
LOL.... It is rather humorous to see the wishful thinking years out.. Sort of reminds me of trading futures and coming up with a lot of reasons why the market is going the wrong way ,and it will come around to my way... which it did not
@CoinCrazyPA said:
I'm surprised the regular unc set is beating this one.
Might have something to do with the US Mint giving free standard shipping if you buy at least one 2017 Unc set in your order. I got an email about a week ago with a coupon code from the US Mint.
It has followers and I wonder how many of them are willing to substitute or add this set in addition to those unaware already mentioned.
Another Mint dud.. need an error coin in set ,, to lite up sales... otherwise set, dead meat..
Although I will order a set this week for the fun .. All those holding big numbers of sets ,yet to sell .. ouch
the existence of the Effigy mounds coin design already must be an error, let alone giving it special enhanced minting...
There someone else goes again. Dissing the animal cracker quarter.
It's Iowa. It's an ATB quarter. Here's the wording of the law:
(i)In general.—
The selection of a national park or other national site in each State to be honored with a coin under this subsection shall be made by the Secretary of the Treasury, after consultation with the Secretary of the Interior and the governor or other chief executive of each State with respect to which a coin is to be issued under this subsection, and after giving full and thoughtful consideration to national sites that are not under the jurisdiction of the Secretary of the Interior so that the national site chosen for each State shall be the most appropriate in terms of natural or historic significance.
Honestly, the only two things that fit that description in Iowa (that is exclusive to Iowa) is Herbert Hoover's Boyhood Home and Effigy Mounds. Pretend you're the CCAC. What are you going to pick?
(For all the times I've driven through Iowa, I don't think I've ever stopped for more than gas. Yeah, I'm doing some large file transfers, and posting this was better than watching paint dry...)
I'm surprised the regular unc set is beating this one.
I'm thinking it is not on the average person's radar
Annual sets do not follow your normal Mint Product product life.
Their first week sales aren't half of what they eventually sell, and sell thousands per week after that. It's not uncommon for proof sales to hit five figures. Sales don't taper off until the next calendar year.
Even if it's bulk sales by dealers to replenish stock, they are still selling sets throughout the year.
I think everyone who's aware of this set has already bought their fill. I think it's these casual annual set buyers that will clear out the rest of the sets. If it does maintain 2500/week, that's three weeks...
@bestday said:
LOL.... It is rather humorous to see the wishful thinking years out.. Sort of reminds me of trading futures and coming up with a lot of reasons why the market is going the wrong way ,and it will come around to my way... which it did not
Your feelings on this set are obvious. But the market for this set is fine. It has sold nearly as many sets as 2017 mint sets in a fraction of the time. It has a capped mintage of 225,000 unlike the mint set. No one...well, very few people expect this to be $1000 set. But the expectation that this set will hold value and be a $50 set moving forward is hardly excessive.
Notice, by the way, that 2016 mint sets are STILL SELLING and approaching 300,000 in sales. That's 40%-50% more sales than EU sets will exist.
For whatever reason, mint and proof sets sell gradually over months. The EU set seems to be doing the same after the initial hype died down. But the one key difference, which you want to ignore, is that the EU set is LIMITED at numbers well below current demand for either mint or proof sets.
@bestday said:
LOL.... It is rather humorous to see the wishful thinking years out.. Sort of reminds me of trading futures and coming up with a lot of reasons why the market is going the wrong way ,and it will come around to my way... which it did not
Your feelings on this set are obvious. But the market for this set is fine. It has sold nearly as many sets as 2017 mint sets in a fraction of the time. It has a capped mintage of 225,000 unlike the mint set. No one...well, very few people expect this to be $1000 set. But the expectation that this set will hold value and be a $50 set moving forward is hardly excessive.
Notice, by the way, that 2016 mint sets are STILL SELLING and approaching 300,000 in sales. That's 40%-50% more sales than EU sets will exist.
For whatever reason, mint and proof sets sell gradually over months. The EU set seems to be doing the same after the initial hype died down. But the one key difference, which you want to ignore, is that the EU set is LIMITED at numbers well below current demand for either mint or proof sets.
I remember a similar controversy 22 years ago. Only instead of a special set, the item in question was a special coin within a regular annual set.
The coin was the 1995-W proof Silver Eagle. It was available at no extra cost with each purchase of the 1995 Gold Eagle 4-coin proof set (at $995 each). Many collectors objected to the coin as a “contrived rarity” and refused to purchase it (even for free) or include it in their proof Silver Eagle sets. Many collectors of the annual Gold Eagle proof sets agreed, and thousands of them chose to forego the “free” 1995-W Silver Eagle and opted for the regular 4-coin gold set instead.
Ultimately the gold set with the “free” Silver Eagle failed to sell out, reaching only about 2/3 of its maximum authorized mintage. Today, of course, the 1995-W is the key proof Silver Eagle, with a price tag of $3000+.
Long term, I expect the 2017-S enhanced set to follow a similar trajectory but with more modest price increases. I can’t see the price of a Lincoln cent with less than half the mintage of the 1909-S VDB remaining under $10 forever. To a lesser extent, the same should hold true for several of the other coins in the set. Once the current controversy over the set’s debut has faded into history, it should gain more respect as an unusual and attractive Mint offering that features several key and semi-key coins.
@Overdate said:
I remember a similar controversy 22 years ago. Only instead of a special set, the item in question was a special coin within a regular annual set.
The coin was the 1995-W proof Silver Eagle. It was available at no extra cost with each purchase of the 1995 Gold Eagle 4-coin proof set (at $995 each). Many collectors objected to the coin as a “contrived rarity” and refused to purchase it (even for free) or include it in their proof Silver Eagle sets. Many collectors of the annual Gold Eagle proof sets agreed, and thousands of them chose to forego the “free” 1995-W Silver Eagle and opted for the regular 4-coin gold set instead.
Ultimately the gold set with the “free” Silver Eagle failed to sell out, reaching only about 2/3 of its maximum authorized mintage. Today, of course, the 1995-W is the key proof Silver Eagle, with a price tag of $3000+.
Long term, I expect the 2017-S enhanced set to follow a similar trajectory but with more modest price increases. I can’t see the price of a Lincoln cent with less than half the mintage of the 1909-S VDB remaining under $10 forever. To a lesser extent, the same should hold true for several of the other coins in the set. Once the current controversy over the set’s debut has faded into history, it should gain more respect as an unusual and attractive Mint offering that features several key and semi-key coins.
Obviously, I agree.
This set is oddly controversial. Everyone wants to either call it an abysmal failure or overhype it as (would be) overnight success. The fact is that 225,000 was probably too many for instant sell-out and the subsequent panic among flippers has caused the pendulum to swing too far the other way.
As you point out, ultimately it is likely to be a desirable, modestly priced inclusion among series collectors (especially halves and cents, I would think) and, given the limited minting should have a stable price for years to come.
I'm not sure the 1995-W eagle is the best metaphor. But I would certainly look at the 1996-W dime with a mintage of 1.457 MILLION as a better proxy. It's still an $8-10$ coin. Same with the 1970-D Kennedy with a mintage of over TWO MILLION. Heck, look at 1950-D nickels (mintage 2.6 million).
Expecting it to be $100 set out of the gate was excessive. But I think expectation that it will be a $20 set is even more absurd.
I think a reasonable estimate of individual pricing has to be at least:
$10-$12 on the half (consider the 70-D)
$8-$10 on the dime (consider the 96-W)
$10-$12 on the cent (is there ANYTHING even close?)
$5 on the nickel (consider the 50-D)
$5-$8 on the Sac (compare 2015-W enhanced with 90,000 minted?)
$10 on the quarter set
That puts the break-up value of the set at $50-$60, conservatively. Could go higher if they catch on. I think permanently.
@bestday said:
LOL.... It is rather humorous to see the wishful thinking years out.. Sort of reminds me of trading futures and coming up with a lot of reasons why the market is going the wrong way ,and it will come around to my way... which it did not
Your feelings on this set are obvious. But the market for this set is fine. It has sold nearly as many sets as 2017 mint sets in a fraction of the time. It has a capped mintage of 225,000 unlike the mint set. No one...well, very few people expect this to be $1000 set. But the expectation that this set will hold value and be a $50 set moving forward is hardly excessive.
Notice, by the way, that 2016 mint sets are STILL SELLING and approaching 300,000 in sales. That's 40%-50% more sales than EU sets will exist.
For whatever reason, mint and proof sets sell gradually over months. The EU set seems to be doing the same after the initial hype died down. But the one key difference, which you want to ignore, is that the EU set is LIMITED at numbers well below current demand for either mint or proof sets.
interesting.
some good points I must consider
Well consider .. 10pc... NGC 225th all 70s sets on ebay .. several sets have sold in last 2 days ,UNDER $130.00.. Folks 70s..... Fees ,postage alone > 150 ??
Little mention in this thread about the continued price dive in graded sets
@bestday said:
LOL.... It is rather humorous to see the wishful thinking years out.. Sort of reminds me of trading futures and coming up with a lot of reasons why the market is going the wrong way ,and it will come around to my way... which it did not
Your feelings on this set are obvious. But the market for this set is fine. It has sold nearly as many sets as 2017 mint sets in a fraction of the time. It has a capped mintage of 225,000 unlike the mint set. No one...well, very few people expect this to be $1000 set. But the expectation that this set will hold value and be a $50 set moving forward is hardly excessive.
Notice, by the way, that 2016 mint sets are STILL SELLING and approaching 300,000 in sales. That's 40%-50% more sales than EU sets will exist.
For whatever reason, mint and proof sets sell gradually over months. The EU set seems to be doing the same after the initial hype died down. But the one key difference, which you want to ignore, is that the EU set is LIMITED at numbers well below current demand for either mint or proof sets.
interesting.
some good points I must consider
Well consider .. 10pc... NGC 225th all 70s sets on ebay .. several sets have sold in last 2 days ,UNDER $130.00.. Folks 70s..... Fees ,postage alone > 150 ??
Little mention in this thread about the continued price dive in graded sets
Personally, I really don't know that graded set prices tell you anything. People who collect those don't break out the coins for their albums. The fact that people pay over $100 up to $200 for the set of coins you are constantly disparaging indicates people will pay up to $200 for the set you hate. Look at the price for MS70 eagles. Does the fact that you can buy them for $30 to $40 against an intrinsic value of $18 and a purchase price of $21 indicate that no one like silver eagles or simply that no one cares if they are in a 70 holder?
Let's see $29.95 issue price selling for $150 in a holder.
$21 silver eagle selling for $35 in a holder.
@bestday said:
LOL.... It is rather humorous to see the wishful thinking years out.. Sort of reminds me of trading futures and coming up with a lot of reasons why the market is going the wrong way ,and it will come around to my way... which it did not
Your feelings on this set are obvious. But the market for this set is fine. It has sold nearly as many sets as 2017 mint sets in a fraction of the time. It has a capped mintage of 225,000 unlike the mint set. No one...well, very few people expect this to be $1000 set. But the expectation that this set will hold value and be a $50 set moving forward is hardly excessive.
Notice, by the way, that 2016 mint sets are STILL SELLING and approaching 300,000 in sales. That's 40%-50% more sales than EU sets will exist.
For whatever reason, mint and proof sets sell gradually over months. The EU set seems to be doing the same after the initial hype died down. But the one key difference, which you want to ignore, is that the EU set is LIMITED at numbers well below current demand for either mint or proof sets.
interesting.
some good points I must consider
Well consider .. 10pc... NGC 225th all 70s sets on ebay .. several sets have sold in last 2 days ,UNDER $130.00.. Folks 70s..... Fees ,postage alone > 150 ??
Little mention in this thread about the continued price dive in graded sets
I would imagine that total cost on a graded set is probably about $110 or so. $30 for the set, $70 for the grading, $10 for postage.
@bestday said:
LOL.... It is rather humorous to see the wishful thinking years out.. Sort of reminds me of trading futures and coming up with a lot of reasons why the market is going the wrong way ,and it will come around to my way... which it did not
Your feelings on this set are obvious. But the market for this set is fine. It has sold nearly as many sets as 2017 mint sets in a fraction of the time. It has a capped mintage of 225,000 unlike the mint set. No one...well, very few people expect this to be $1000 set. But the expectation that this set will hold value and be a $50 set moving forward is hardly excessive.
Notice, by the way, that 2016 mint sets are STILL SELLING and approaching 300,000 in sales. That's 40%-50% more sales than EU sets will exist.
For whatever reason, mint and proof sets sell gradually over months. The EU set seems to be doing the same after the initial hype died down. But the one key difference, which you want to ignore, is that the EU set is LIMITED at numbers well below current demand for either mint or proof sets.
interesting.
some good points I must consider
Well consider .. 10pc... NGC 225th all 70s sets on ebay .. several sets have sold in last 2 days ,UNDER $130.00.. Folks 70s..... Fees ,postage alone > 150 ??
Little mention in this thread about the continued price dive in graded sets
Personally, I really don't know that graded set prices tell you anything. People who collect those don't break out the coins for their albums. The fact that people pay over $100 up to $200 for the set of coins you are constantly disparaging indicates people will pay up to $200 for the set you hate. Look at the price for MS70 eagles. Does the fact that you can buy them for $30 to $40 against an intrinsic value of $18 and a purchase price of $21 indicate that no one like silver eagles or simply that no one cares if they are in a 70 holder?
Let's see $29.95 issue price selling for $150 in a holder.
$21 silver eagle selling for $35 in a holder.
Which is doing better in the market???
LOL . Not Talking Silver Eagles ..a low price for a 70s enhanced set means just that... a low price, where demand is not there for the Mint product .. Graded coins drive the prices of Mint Raw coins
Only the market can disparage coins ......with low prices
@bestday said:
LOL.... It is rather humorous to see the wishful thinking years out.. Sort of reminds me of trading futures and coming up with a lot of reasons why the market is going the wrong way ,and it will come around to my way... which it did not
Your feelings on this set are obvious. But the market for this set is fine. It has sold nearly as many sets as 2017 mint sets in a fraction of the time. It has a capped mintage of 225,000 unlike the mint set. No one...well, very few people expect this to be $1000 set. But the expectation that this set will hold value and be a $50 set moving forward is hardly excessive.
Notice, by the way, that 2016 mint sets are STILL SELLING and approaching 300,000 in sales. That's 40%-50% more sales than EU sets will exist.
For whatever reason, mint and proof sets sell gradually over months. The EU set seems to be doing the same after the initial hype died down. But the one key difference, which you want to ignore, is that the EU set is LIMITED at numbers well below current demand for either mint or proof sets.
interesting.
some good points I must consider
Well consider .. 10pc... NGC 225th all 70s sets on ebay .. several sets have sold in last 2 days ,UNDER $130.00.. Folks 70s..... Fees ,postage alone > 150 ??
Little mention in this thread about the continued price dive in graded sets
Personally, I really don't know that graded set prices tell you anything. People who collect those don't break out the coins for their albums. The fact that people pay over $100 up to $200 for the set of coins you are constantly disparaging indicates people will pay up to $200 for the set you hate. Look at the price for MS70 eagles. Does the fact that you can buy them for $30 to $40 against an intrinsic value of $18 and a purchase price of $21 indicate that no one like silver eagles or simply that no one cares if they are in a 70 holder?
Let's see $29.95 issue price selling for $150 in a holder.
$21 silver eagle selling for $35 in a holder.
Which is doing better in the market???
LOL . Not Talking Silver Eagles ..a low price for a 70s enhanced set means just that... a low price, where demand is not there for the Mint product .. Graded coins drive the prices of Mint Raw coins
Only the market can disparage coins ......with low prices
Really? What's the price of a 2017-S PF 70 set? How many sell at all?
@jmlanzaf said:
Worth pointing out that the 94-P matte finish is a $35-$40 coin these days with a mintage not much lower than the EU nickel.
Also worth pointing out that the 94-P matte nickel has a circulation-strike counterpart. The 2017-S does not.
@bestday said:
Graded coins drive the prices of Mint Raw coins
Not really. Different collecting styles, and most collectors of moderns will not pay up for a label. As an example, less than 10% of recent proof silver eagles have been encapsulated by TPGs. Modern raw coins set the minimum price for modern graded coins (69 and below). Prices for 70's generally depend upon how hard it is to obtain that grade for a particular coin.
@jmlanzaf said:
Worth pointing out that the 94-P matte finish is a $35-$40 coin these days with a mintage not much lower than the EU nickel.
Also worth pointing out that the 94-P matte nickel has a circulation-strike counterpart. The 2017-S does not.
@bestday said:
Graded coins drive the prices of Mint Raw coins
Not really. Different collecting styles, and most collectors of moderns will not pay up for a label. As an example, less than 10% of recent proof silver eagles have been encapsulated by TPGs. Modern raw coins set the minimum price for modern graded coins (69 and below). Prices for 70's generally depend upon how hard it is to obtain that grade for a particular coin.
Graded sets should sell bottom-basement - basically just over the price for the set and grading fees. Probably 80% of the sets in OGP are 70's worthy so there is no condition rarity. Add to that many modern collectors just don't collect plastic.
So far I've seen this set compared to: 2014 Gold Kennedys, mid-2000's modern comemms, 1995 ASE proofs, 1994/1997 satin nickels, 1996-w dime, 1998 silver satin Kennedy and modern proof and mint sets.
I dismiss most of these comparisons. No way this set is going to act like a modern commem or a coin with bullion content or an ASE.
The closest I can see are the 1996-w dime and the satin nickels. 1996-w sells for $10-15, 1994 nickel sells for $40-ish and the 1997 sells for $90-100-ish. Those are single coins. This set has basically 10 coins that are similar (or 6 if you count the 5 ATB quarters as a group). At release price, you're looking at pretty much $3 per coin for a unique finish, low mintage coin. That's not much. All these coins have to do is double in price to $6 per coin - easily doable like the 1996-w clad dime - and the set is a long-term winner. I see the real value of this as a long-term hold in OGP.
If this set closes below 200K, watch the price jump. Should also get a jump once the summer passes and people get back to collections - this was released at one of the absolute worst times of the collecting calendar to generate interest.
The last two I saw that sold for under $140 were BIN's at $119 for some strange reason. I only saw three others below that $140 and they were sold over a week ago. (NGC)
Last three were $163, $156.50 and $207.75
Edit: just saw one of those $119 sets was a 69,,,the other was a 70 though
@BigA said:
The last two I saw that sold for under $140 were BIN's at $119 for some strange reason. I only saw three others below that $140 and they were sold over a week ago. (NGC)
Last three were $163, $156.50 and $207.75
I just bought 2 SP70 sets @ $150 each. It's worth the premium.
@BigA said:
The last two I saw that sold for under $140 were BIN's at $119 for some strange reason. I only saw three others below that $140 and they were sold over a week ago. (NGC)
Last three were $163, $156.50 and $207.75
Edit: just saw one of those $119 sets was a 69,,,the other was a 70 though
The $119 was seller bailing out ... if using BINs overpaying with sellers banking on people not want to wait for an auction end
Auctions ended since Sept are mostly under 140- 150 range like NGCs .. on Sept 5.. $122-136
For someone who doesn't get a discount on grading( Am I missing a coupon or something ) the set cost $35 with shipping. Then to have 10 coins graded at PCGS or another TPG it would cost $160 plus shipping to and from, so say another $25. That would be a total of $220. Are the dealers really able to get that much of a discount that they can sell for >$150?
back to open the can of worms on "First Strike" versus "First Struck"
on those boxes of 38, I've seen pictures of labels from 6/15/2017 to 7-24-2017. All first strike eligible had they been submitted by the cut-off date.
so, we know have further confirmation that the cut off is just a date on a calendar.
Now, would pcgs grade an early date box from the SF mint as first strike if it is an early date? probably not. A FOIA could find out an estimate of the ship dates from the SF mint.
@thevolcanogod said:
Graded sets should sell bottom-basement - basically just over the price for the set and grading fees. Probably 80% of the sets in OGP are 70's worthy so there is no condition rarity. Add to that many modern collectors just don't collect plastic.
So far I've seen this set compared to: 2014 Gold Kennedys, mid-2000's modern comemms, 1995 ASE proofs, 1994/1997 satin nickels, 1996-w dime, 1998 silver satin Kennedy and modern proof and mint sets.
I dismiss most of these comparisons. No way this set is going to act like a modern commem or a coin with bullion content or an ASE.
The closest I can see are the 1996-w dime and the satin nickels. 1996-w sells for $10-15, 1994 nickel sells for $40-ish and the 1997 sells for $90-100-ish. Those are single coins. This set has basically 10 coins that are similar (or 6 if you count the 5 ATB quarters as a group). At release price, you're looking at pretty much $3 per coin for a unique finish, low mintage coin. That's not much. All these coins have to do is double in price to $6 per coin - easily doable like the 1996-w clad dime - and the set is a long-term winner. I see the real value of this as a long-term hold in OGP.
If this set closes below 200K, watch the price jump. Should also get a jump once the summer passes and people get back to collections - this was released at one of the absolute worst times of the collecting calendar to generate interest.
I completely agree except for the release time. It was released at the ANA and sold out in minutes. Honestly, if the 20,000 set cancellation hadn't occurred, this set probably stayed sold out. The subsequent panic among flippers led to somewhere around 30,000 returns. That put 50,000 sets back on the market.
I called pcgs,i am a member. if you submit 100 coins at one time,(bulk) it's 12 dollars per grade, a flat fee of 70 dollars shipping, and 17 dollars per coin for first strike label, so 29 dollars per coin if you want the first strike label
NGC might get a bulk fee of 7 dollars, but ngc only has a value of 80 percent vs pcgs. so yes, you can buy a ngc set for 20 percent less, but when it's time to sell expect 20 percent less vs the same coin in a pcgs holder ,
@coinpalice said:
the Denver Ana first day of issue set would be the cream of the crop as far as value in the future, followed by the first strike set
long-term disagree. first day of issue has a more realistic name. however, the appeal will play out the same since both are so similar. Why pay extra for FDOI?
Look at these ebay prices from 2 hours ago, today.. 10pc.. NGC 70s ANA Denver 1st day Show label.. $141
10pc..NGC 70s 1st releases.. $124
10pc..NGC 70s Early Release...$121
10pc .NGC 70s ANA Denver 1st Day.. $128
@bestday said:
Look at these ebay prices from 2 hours ago, today.. 10pc.. NGC 70s ANA Denver 1st day Show label.. $141
10pc..NGC 70s 1st releases.. $124
10pc..NGC 70s Early Release...$121
10pc .NGC 70s ANA Denver 1st Day.. $128
I didn't see those prices.....I would have bought them.....maybe my query is crap...
I would assume you get a dealer discount if you grade 500 or more, but with the current prices, you would be better off buying them online. not all of them are going to be 70's, most will though. they are currently taking a loss at current prices and taking bigger hits on the SP-69 sets.
Comments
I agree...which is why I think it ends up a long term winner. Especially if, as appears to be the case, the final mintage is going to be closer to 200,000 than 225,000.
I'm surprised the regular unc set is beating this one.
Might have something to do with the US Mint giving free standard shipping if you buy at least one 2017 Unc set in your order. I got an email about a week ago with a coupon code from the US Mint.
Successful Trades: Swampboy,
LOL.... It is rather humorous to see the wishful thinking years out.. Sort of reminds me of trading futures and coming up with a lot of reasons why the market is going the wrong way ,and it will come around to my way... which it did not
It has followers and I wonder how many of them are willing to substitute or add this set in addition to those unaware already mentioned.
There someone else goes again. Dissing the animal cracker quarter.
It's Iowa. It's an ATB quarter. Here's the wording of the law:
Honestly, the only two things that fit that description in Iowa (that is exclusive to Iowa) is Herbert Hoover's Boyhood Home and Effigy Mounds. Pretend you're the CCAC. What are you going to pick?
(For all the times I've driven through Iowa, I don't think I've ever stopped for more than gas. Yeah, I'm doing some large file transfers, and posting this was better than watching paint dry...)
Annual sets do not follow your normal Mint Product product life.
Their first week sales aren't half of what they eventually sell, and sell thousands per week after that. It's not uncommon for proof sales to hit five figures. Sales don't taper off until the next calendar year.
Even if it's bulk sales by dealers to replenish stock, they are still selling sets throughout the year.
I think everyone who's aware of this set has already bought their fill. I think it's these casual annual set buyers that will clear out the rest of the sets. If it does maintain 2500/week, that's three weeks...
Your feelings on this set are obvious. But the market for this set is fine. It has sold nearly as many sets as 2017 mint sets in a fraction of the time. It has a capped mintage of 225,000 unlike the mint set. No one...well, very few people expect this to be $1000 set. But the expectation that this set will hold value and be a $50 set moving forward is hardly excessive.
Notice, by the way, that 2016 mint sets are STILL SELLING and approaching 300,000 in sales. That's 40%-50% more sales than EU sets will exist.
For whatever reason, mint and proof sets sell gradually over months. The EU set seems to be doing the same after the initial hype died down. But the one key difference, which you want to ignore, is that the EU set is LIMITED at numbers well below current demand for either mint or proof sets.
interesting.
some good points I must consider
Interesting, it appears that "Silver Coin Products" are the big winner for the Mint in terms of margin.
I knew it would happen.
<<LOL.... It is rather humorous to see the wishful thinking years out.. Sort of reminds me of trading futures>>
HA...I think you just defined old-time coin collecting...that things MIGHT GO UP OVER TIME vs. overnight, quick buck schemes!
I remember a similar controversy 22 years ago. Only instead of a special set, the item in question was a special coin within a regular annual set.
The coin was the 1995-W proof Silver Eagle. It was available at no extra cost with each purchase of the 1995 Gold Eagle 4-coin proof set (at $995 each). Many collectors objected to the coin as a “contrived rarity” and refused to purchase it (even for free) or include it in their proof Silver Eagle sets. Many collectors of the annual Gold Eagle proof sets agreed, and thousands of them chose to forego the “free” 1995-W Silver Eagle and opted for the regular 4-coin gold set instead.
Ultimately the gold set with the “free” Silver Eagle failed to sell out, reaching only about 2/3 of its maximum authorized mintage. Today, of course, the 1995-W is the key proof Silver Eagle, with a price tag of $3000+.
Long term, I expect the 2017-S enhanced set to follow a similar trajectory but with more modest price increases. I can’t see the price of a Lincoln cent with less than half the mintage of the 1909-S VDB remaining under $10 forever. To a lesser extent, the same should hold true for several of the other coins in the set. Once the current controversy over the set’s debut has faded into history, it should gain more respect as an unusual and attractive Mint offering that features several key and semi-key coins.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I like the Nickel in this set. What is the lowest mintage Jefferson Nickel and how does it compare to the Enhanced Nickel?
I believe the 1997-P special matte nickel was in a set, and sold 25,000. The 1994-P special matte nickel is approximately 167,000.
I should have known that,,,,,,,,,, Thanks,,,,,
Obviously, I agree.
This set is oddly controversial. Everyone wants to either call it an abysmal failure or overhype it as (would be) overnight success. The fact is that 225,000 was probably too many for instant sell-out and the subsequent panic among flippers has caused the pendulum to swing too far the other way.
As you point out, ultimately it is likely to be a desirable, modestly priced inclusion among series collectors (especially halves and cents, I would think) and, given the limited minting should have a stable price for years to come.
I'm not sure the 1995-W eagle is the best metaphor. But I would certainly look at the 1996-W dime with a mintage of 1.457 MILLION as a better proxy. It's still an $8-10$ coin. Same with the 1970-D Kennedy with a mintage of over TWO MILLION. Heck, look at 1950-D nickels (mintage 2.6 million).
Expecting it to be $100 set out of the gate was excessive. But I think expectation that it will be a $20 set is even more absurd.
I think a reasonable estimate of individual pricing has to be at least:
$10-$12 on the half (consider the 70-D)
$8-$10 on the dime (consider the 96-W)
$10-$12 on the cent (is there ANYTHING even close?)
$5 on the nickel (consider the 50-D)
$5-$8 on the Sac (compare 2015-W enhanced with 90,000 minted?)
$10 on the quarter set
That puts the break-up value of the set at $50-$60, conservatively. Could go higher if they catch on. I think permanently.
In my every humble opinion, of course.
Well consider .. 10pc... NGC 225th all 70s sets on ebay .. several sets have sold in last 2 days ,UNDER $130.00.. Folks 70s..... Fees ,postage alone > 150 ??
Little mention in this thread about the continued price dive in graded sets
Personally, I really don't know that graded set prices tell you anything. People who collect those don't break out the coins for their albums. The fact that people pay over $100 up to $200 for the set of coins you are constantly disparaging indicates people will pay up to $200 for the set you hate. Look at the price for MS70 eagles. Does the fact that you can buy them for $30 to $40 against an intrinsic value of $18 and a purchase price of $21 indicate that no one like silver eagles or simply that no one cares if they are in a 70 holder?
Let's see $29.95 issue price selling for $150 in a holder.
$21 silver eagle selling for $35 in a holder.
Which is doing better in the market???
I would imagine that total cost on a graded set is probably about $110 or so. $30 for the set, $70 for the grading, $10 for postage.
Worth pointing out that the 94-P matte finish is a $35-$40 coin these days with a mintage not much lower than the EU nickel.
LOL . Not Talking Silver Eagles ..a low price for a 70s enhanced set means just that... a low price, where demand is not there for the Mint product .. Graded coins drive the prices of Mint Raw coins
Only the market can disparage coins ......with low prices
Really? What's the price of a 2017-S PF 70 set? How many sell at all?
NGC 70 Sac Dollar sold yesterday as a BIN for $99.95...quarters for $89.95 (BIN)
Regular label NGC70 set sold yesterday as a BIN for $218.99 (4 sold) and right after it a set in auction sold for $152.99
Prices are all over the place and BIN's getting better prices
Also worth pointing out that the 94-P matte nickel has a circulation-strike counterpart. The 2017-S does not.
Not really. Different collecting styles, and most collectors of moderns will not pay up for a label. As an example, less than 10% of recent proof silver eagles have been encapsulated by TPGs. Modern raw coins set the minimum price for modern graded coins (69 and below). Prices for 70's generally depend upon how hard it is to obtain that grade for a particular coin.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
The cents alone are selling for $60 to $100.
I've almost talked myself into buying the slabbed sets at $200. LOL.
You can BIN for $185 from one guy in Miami...he may even make a deal to move them before the Irma comes to town....
Don't quote me on that.
Talking sets like the 2006
25 sets sell under 140.00.on ebay ..low so far ..$122.00 for a NGC 70 ..10 pc set
Graded sets should sell bottom-basement - basically just over the price for the set and grading fees. Probably 80% of the sets in OGP are 70's worthy so there is no condition rarity. Add to that many modern collectors just don't collect plastic.
So far I've seen this set compared to: 2014 Gold Kennedys, mid-2000's modern comemms, 1995 ASE proofs, 1994/1997 satin nickels, 1996-w dime, 1998 silver satin Kennedy and modern proof and mint sets.
I dismiss most of these comparisons. No way this set is going to act like a modern commem or a coin with bullion content or an ASE.
The closest I can see are the 1996-w dime and the satin nickels. 1996-w sells for $10-15, 1994 nickel sells for $40-ish and the 1997 sells for $90-100-ish. Those are single coins. This set has basically 10 coins that are similar (or 6 if you count the 5 ATB quarters as a group). At release price, you're looking at pretty much $3 per coin for a unique finish, low mintage coin. That's not much. All these coins have to do is double in price to $6 per coin - easily doable like the 1996-w clad dime - and the set is a long-term winner. I see the real value of this as a long-term hold in OGP.
If this set closes below 200K, watch the price jump. Should also get a jump once the summer passes and people get back to collections - this was released at one of the absolute worst times of the collecting calendar to generate interest.
The last two I saw that sold for under $140 were BIN's at $119 for some strange reason. I only saw three others below that $140 and they were sold over a week ago. (NGC)
Last three were $163, $156.50 and $207.75
Edit: just saw one of those $119 sets was a 69,,,the other was a 70 though
I just bought 2 SP70 sets @ $150 each. It's worth the premium.
D2
Don't quote me on that.
Agree....
The $119 was seller bailing out ... if using BINs overpaying with sellers banking on people not want to wait for an auction end
Auctions ended since Sept are mostly under 140- 150 range like NGCs .. on Sept 5.. $122-136
For someone who doesn't get a discount on grading( Am I missing a coupon or something
) the set cost $35 with shipping. Then to have 10 coins graded at PCGS or another TPG it would cost $160 plus shipping to and from, so say another $25. That would be a total of $220. Are the dealers really able to get that much of a discount that they can sell for >$150?
D2
Don't quote me on that.
the comparison here was solely with the initial fever then later bust in sales.
bulk submissions
check fee schedule
So bulk submissions cost $120 vs. $160. That still puts the sets at over $150.... interesting....
Don't quote me on that.
ok
back to open the can of worms on "First Strike" versus "First Struck"
on those boxes of 38, I've seen pictures of labels from 6/15/2017 to 7-24-2017. All first strike eligible had they been submitted by the cut-off date.
so, we know have further confirmation that the cut off is just a date on a calendar.
Now, would pcgs grade an early date box from the SF mint as first strike if it is an early date? probably not. A FOIA could find out an estimate of the ship dates from the SF mint.
I've seen NGC sets as low as $160 BIN. The PCGS sets (which I would prefer) are at $199. I haven't seen any $185 sets.
I completely agree except for the release time. It was released at the ANA and sold out in minutes. Honestly, if the 20,000 set cancellation hadn't occurred, this set probably stayed sold out. The subsequent panic among flippers led to somewhere around 30,000 returns. That put 50,000 sets back on the market.
The sets I bought were NGC Early Releases designation. I would prefer PCGS too, but at $150 It will do.
D2
Don't quote me on that.
No, you should be able to get bulk submission rates of around $7 per coin.
Not an individual like me but a dealer you mean?
Don't quote me on that.
I called pcgs,i am a member. if you submit 100 coins at one time,(bulk) it's 12 dollars per grade, a flat fee of 70 dollars shipping, and 17 dollars per coin for first strike label, so 29 dollars per coin if you want the first strike label
I am not a dealer but I do get about 200 coins graded through pcgs per year
the Denver Ana first day of issue set would be the cream of the crop as far as value in the future, followed by the first strike set
NGC might get a bulk fee of 7 dollars, but ngc only has a value of 80 percent vs pcgs. so yes, you can buy a ngc set for 20 percent less, but when it's time to sell expect 20 percent less vs the same coin in a pcgs holder ,
Can we impose a 140 character limit on replies here?
long-term disagree. first day of issue has a more realistic name. however, the appeal will play out the same since both are so similar. Why pay extra for FDOI?
Look at these ebay prices from 2 hours ago, today.. 10pc.. NGC 70s ANA Denver 1st day Show label.. $141
10pc..NGC 70s 1st releases.. $124
10pc..NGC 70s Early Release...$121
10pc .NGC 70s ANA Denver 1st Day.. $128
I didn't see those prices.....I would have bought them.....maybe my query is crap...
D2
Don't quote me on that.
I would assume you get a dealer discount if you grade 500 or more, but with the current prices, you would be better off buying them online. not all of them are going to be 70's, most will though. they are currently taking a loss at current prices and taking bigger hits on the SP-69 sets.