<< <i>I'm so sorry you choose to hide behind the calendar and conveniently forget my warnings of an extended streak as gold dropped 34% in 2008. And on cue you prefer to exaggerate as there is no way I could ahve commented on gold as I havent even been on this forum for 12 years. Go ahead an bring up my "gold is dead" thread from 2009...interesting that gold has underperformed every asset on the planet since then, except the forum's favorite dull and bland metal.
I'm here most every day, hardly hiding. I'm glad I didn't heed your dire warnings in 2008. How many warnings was that? March? July? October? Gold was as high as $924 in Sept 2008 (an 11% drop)....and over $930 in early October 2008 just only a few weeks from the "crash" bottom. It was back above $900 by January. It's hard to call all that a calamity. If it makes you feel good to say it dropped 34% keep saying it. But the reality is gold dropped and recovered 3-5 different times from March to September. You could have gotten out in 2008: April, May, June, July, September, early October and January 2009 with hardly a scratch (gold still above $900 at all those times). The one exaggerating here is you. Maybe it would be better to discuss the stock market performance from Oct 2007 to March 2009....a 50% crash....far worse than the 27% - 3 week crash that gold endured. Even during gold's March-October 2008 34% average decline the stock market was falling 30%. Telling people to exit gold in 2008 when it was only half-way to the top seems to be another miss...not much different to telling them to get out in the $1250-$1300 range in 2009/2010. Calling the past 3-4 years in PMs correctly doesn't cancel out being off the mark during much of the 10 year bull market rise.
Those gold players that got out in 2008 near the lows missed a subsequent 2.8X rise in years....a warning I hope no one heeded. PM's are best performing general asset since 2000. It's not very likely stocks or bonds will take over that mantle at the 20 or 25 year point either.
And all the huge hoards of billions of ounces (including the US stockpile) were mostly used up decades ago.
The silver wasn't "used up", it was mostly recast as little collector items and resides today in people's "stacks"
And every single day, little collector items that collectors have tired of the designs, get melted down en masse and remade into today's "hot" designs"
Go to any metal retailer website, and looook at alll the different designs.
The inference of the above is that there are no losses in the mainstream stock and bond markets. Just winners. Yup, there were only SM winners from 1929-1939, 1966-1982, 2000-2003, 2007-2009....just ask anyone in Baleyville. It's only the ignorant gold and silver buyers who come in at the peaks and then bail out near the bottoms.
<< <i>And all the huge hoards of billions of ounces (including the US stockpile) were mostly used up decades ago.
The silver wasn't "used up", it was mostly recast as little collector items and resides today in people's "stacks"
And every single day, little collector items that collectors have tired of the designs, get melted down en masse and remade into today's "hot" designs"
Go to any metal retailer website, and looook at alll the different designs.
"collect 'em all!" >>
If you look at the annual recycling numbers you will quickly figure out that of the 50 BILL ounces of silver mined throughout history, that a large majority of it is now gone. Current annual production is about 850 MILL oz per year. This year ought to mark peak gold and silver mining production. The last peak was approx 2000. The Hunts and Buffet had enough trouble just finding 100 MILL ounces to hoard. The Comex doesn't even have close to that amount in deliverable reserves....probably the same for the LBMA. So where is it all? What, you can go out and pick up a few BILLION ounces or more that easily? The central banks have a hoard of gold at 19% of known above ground supplies. Tell me where the same 19% ready made hoard in silver sits (9.5 BILL ounces). Silver is mined at 9X the amount of gold. Silver trades on the NY and London markets at 9X to 10X the amount of gold. Silver shows up in the earth's crust at approx 10X more often than gold. But, silver is used up and discarded unlike gold. If you can find all 50 BILL ounces that was ever mined, please let us know.
<< <i>The inference of the above is that there are no losses in the mainstream stock and bond markets. Just winners. Yup, there were only SM winners from 1929-1939, 1966-1982, 2000-2003, 2007-2009....just ask anyone in Baleyville. It's only the ignorant gold and silver buyers who come in at the peaks and then bail out near the bottoms. >>
Don't see that inference anywhere. Over and over we say that the markets are cyclical, and that diversification can help prevent an "all eggs in one basket" underperformance or outright financial disaster.
of the 50 BILL ounces of silver mined throughout history, that a large majority of it is now gone.
Where did it go? Not a single atom of silver is "gone", Non-fissionable elements to not disappear, they perhaps form compounds.
Some of the "used" silver might be in that photograhic material in the bottom of a landfill somewhere, but the silver is not "gone", just inaccessible.
(but perhaps more accessible than the enormous amounts dissolved in the world's oceans, or in the mantle and core, or in the asteroid belt)
The metal still exists, it's just not economically recoverable--yet.
gone = unrecoverable and/or uneconomic. The same laws apply to businesses all around the world....even in Baleyville.
My employer helped to build and manage landfills from 1989-2008. Good luck trying to recover the silver from them until it's well over $100/oz. That's a very nasty business with fairly high costs and a high bar of environmental and health regulations to meet. The odor issue alone is huge. You think after spending tens of $MILLIONS to cap, line, de-water, and degas one of those is going is going to be tossed to the side while a firm comes in to recycle old metals? Please don't bring up the asteriod or sea water PM supplies as that would invite another debate with Baseball.
Below ground supplies of silver under landfills, at the bottom of oceans, or vaporized into the atmosphere during an Atomic Bomb blast aren't what we're talking about here. The current mining costs of silver don't even allow for a profit for most silver miners. And those mines are already built, accessible and in full production. The grossly non-profitable ones are being shuttered or sold off. No silver miners are considering mining landfills or asteriods just yet.
Despite the current 76 to 1 gold to silver price ratio, I'd say that the highest possible ratio of above ground supplies of silver to gold is on the order of 4 to 1 or maybe 5-1. It could be a fraction of that too.
All that, and we're still at $1150 gold and $15 silver today.
Ok, let's reverse it: At what silver price does industry start melting up ASEs and Zombucks to use for electronics?
My answer: never, in the aggregate. Once that stuff is minted, it just sloshes around the PM market, and when .999 collector bullion is melted, it doesn't flow into 1000 good for delivery bars and into the manufacturing chain
it gets made into the newest fad collectors items with interesting shape and shiny finish
<< <i> Once that stuff is minted, it just sloshes around the PM market, and when .999 collector bullion is melted, it doesn't flow into 1000 good for delivery bars and into the manufacturing chain. it gets made into the newest fad collectors items with interesting shape and shiny finish >>
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Hmm. 70% of silver usage is from industrial demand (65%) and photography (5%). That would suggest that up to 70% of mined silver could get easily "lost" or be "unrecoverable." Sort of puts a hole in theory that it all gets recycled into minted "trinkets" like coins and rounds or "little collector" items headed to B&M shops in Baleyville. Silver coins and medals are <5% of annual demand. Silverware and jewelry is 25% and even that doesn't typically go "sloshing around the PM market." It probably takes years after fabrication for most silver jewelry and silverware to make its way back to the smelter.
Some of the newest silver "fads": water purification, medical, hygiene, nanosilver technology, RFID, photo voltaic cells, auto catalysts, food packaging, super capacitors/conductors, wood preservatives, batteries, solid state lighting, ethylene oxide industry, mirrors.....and not to mention the more tried and true electrical/electronics and brazing alloys and solder (HVAC-plumbing-tool industry-automotive).
As far as 1000 oz GD silver bars go, why wouldn't some recycled .999 collector bullion make their way into those bars? The 5 major refiners in the GD bar program also make coins and other sizes of bullion bars. Do they maintain a "sniffer" that ensures no former .999 coin makes its way into their smelting process? PAMP states that they refine gold-based materials from diverse industries, and primarily include mining and the jewelry and watch industries for their products. Sure sounds like former "trinkets" going into GD bars and other non-trinket items to me. PAMP refines a lot of silverware, which no doubt makes its way into GD bars. What are the chances some of that silverware was originally from .999 and 90% silver coins/rounds?
I'd agree that ASE's and Maples never get melted unless they're damaged, spotted, ugly, etc. There's no shortage of demand for .999 sovereign silver coins. You can always find a home for the current supply at the current price. The Zombucks and other "crap" .999 stuff will eventually make its way to the smelter....maybe into a 1000 GD bar. The ASE's, Maples, Libertads, and other important sov silver always have waiting customers. I suppose if silver returns to $3-$4 oz then even ASE's might find the smelter at some time.
<< <i>I keep hearing rumblings that the Mint is short of silver. Does JPM have it all now? Inquiring minds want to know. >>
temporary shortage, unexpected demand. Government agencies incapable of planning for something out of the norm.
Mint production controllers/buyers caught off guard. You'd think by now that they would keep a hoard in the back room.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>PM's are best performing general asset since 2000. >>
I like "facts" like this because it gives me a chance to do some ORIGINAL research. You know, that stuff you wont find a propagandist blog.
So anyway, I went back to 2000 and compared the return on gold since then vs the DOW components that year. What did I find?, gold has outperformed 24 of the 30 components, some of the rest just barely, and others by a wide margin. But what I thought was most interesting was the general theme of the companies that have outperformed gold.
Boeing Caterpillar 3M Phillip Morris (Altria) United Technology Disney
The general theme.....all mega-manufacturing companies (except DIS--but can you get more American?) I guess the USA does have a little manufacturing business. And I thought all those jobs were gone. Sheesh.
<< <i>I keep hearing rumblings that the Mint is short of silver. Does JPM have it all now? Inquiring minds want to know. >>
temporary shortage, unexpected demand. Government agencies incapable of planning for something out of the norm.
Mint production controllers/buyers caught off guard. You'd think by now that they would keep a hoard in the back room. >>
They minted 44 MILL ASE's in 2014, or approx 5% of world mining supply. But if you consider the BILLIONs of ounces in trinkets, rounds, jewelry, junk bars, etc. just laying around in the gutter or landfills it should be easy to find the silver. After all, the entire 50 BILL ounces of silver is still out there somewhere. How hard could it be to get just 0.1% of it back for the US Mint? And if a coin blank shortage is part of the issue, that makes no sense to me since so many firms all over the world are just looking for more production jobs, especially in the Precious Metals where things have slowed down to a death crawl.
Considering they sold a record 44 MILL ASE's in 2014, you'd think they'd be ready to handle that same amount or more in 2015. They weren't.
No doubt there has been a increase in silver eagle demand, but that hasn't apparently transferred to gold eagle demand where the sales ratio is currently quite skewed to silver eagles. Anecdotally, this does not seem like a bullish indicator to me for silver, quite the opposite from a sentiment stand point. I think the current surge in silver eagle demand was/is coming from the Greek drama and general angst in the markets. There will most likely be plenty of silver available in the near future.
It's clear PM's are in are in a bear or flat lining market for now, until they're not, which could be soon or many years away...none of us know for sure. No reason to make the discussion more complicated than it is. but back to the title, the GDX and by extension NUGT is looking like it is failing it's test to find support at the old bottom, it hasn't broken down fully yet, so it could still find a bottom shortly, but near term trading will critical, imo.
I think a large part of the demand is from ASE stackers who say to themselves, "Self, you liked buying these ASE coins when they were 35, 30, 25, and 20 each, you must LOVE them at $18, so Load UP!"
The ASE's achieved an all time record in mint sales in 2014. It was 84X the AGE sales. And that certainly wasn't because of the Greek crisis. The same type of demand has been in play for 2015 as well. So make it 18 months.
<< <i>The ASE's achieved an all time record in mint sales in 2014. It was 84X the AGE sales. And that certainly wasn't because of the Greek crisis. The same type of demand has been in play for 2015 as well. So make it 18 months.
<< <i>The ASE's achieved an all time record in mint sales in 2014. It was 84X the AGE sales. And that certainly wasn't because of the Greek crisis. The same type of demand has been in play for 2015 as well. So make it 18 months.
This is another reason silver price going nowhere... >>
ASE sales have nothing to do with the price of silver. The price of silver has everything to do with ASE sales.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>The ASE's achieved an all time record in mint sales in 2014. It was 84X the AGE sales. And that certainly wasn't because of the Greek crisis. The same type of demand has been in play for 2015 as well. So make it 18 months.
I think its really funny that everyone thinks ASE demand has increased when in fact it has decreased every year for the last 4 years, including a 14% decline so far this year.
<< <i>I think its really funny that everyone thinks ASE demand has increased when in fact it has decreased every year for the last 4 years, including a 14% decline so far this year. >>
ASE bullion mintages since 2008: 2008 20,583,000 2009 30,459,000 2010 34,764,500 2011 40,020,000 2012 33,742,500 2013 42,675,000 2014 44,006,000 2015 16,946,000 (as of May 31, currently sales have been suspended)
Keep in mind that all temporary suspensions of silver eagle sales have occurred only in recent years thus reducing the total sales for those years.
I think its really funny that your sources are incorrect. Musta got it off the internet.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>I think its really funny that everyone thinks ASE demand has increased when in fact it has decreased every year for the last 4 years, including a 14% decline so far this year. >>
ASE bullion mintages since 2008: 2008 20,583,000 2009 30,459,000 2010 34,764,500 2011 40,020,000 2012 33,742,500 2013 42,675,000 2014 44,006,000 2015 16,946,000 (as of May 31, currently sales have been suspended)
Keep in mind that all temporary suspensions of silver eagle sales have occurred only in recent years thus reducing the total sales for those years.
I think its really funny that your sources are incorrect. Musta got it off the internet. >>
LOL, you still dont get it. Ill let others clue you in.
The relative size of the silver market is so small in comparison to the stock market and especially the bond market - my opinion is that demand will *probably* be a bigger factor than supply in most instances.
If stocks & bonds tank for some unforeseen reason, a bump in silver demand from the refugees fleeing those markets will have a reasonable shot at overwhelming the supply in silver. Mine production won't be able to compensate. In that scenario, silver can rise quickly.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>I think its really funny that everyone thinks ASE demand has increased when in fact it has decreased every year for the last 4 years, including a 14% decline so far this year. >>
ASE bullion mintages since 2008: 2008 20,583,000 2009 30,459,000 2010 34,764,500 2011 40,020,000 2012 33,742,500 2013 42,675,000 2014 44,006,000 2015 16,946,000 (as of May 31, currently sales have been suspended)
Keep in mind that all temporary suspensions of silver eagle sales have occurred only in recent years thus reducing the total sales for those years.
I think its really funny that your sources are incorrect. Musta got it off the internet. >>
LOL, you still dont get it. Ill let others clue you in. >>
I'm smart enough to know that demand is measured by sales. Are you?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
What about Demand for ASEs as measured by the product [P * Q] ?
Winner winner!!!
2011 $1,400,000,000 spent on shiny round coins. 2012 $1,051,000,000 spent on shiny round coins. 2013 $1,015,000,000 spent on shiny round coins. 2014 $838,000,000 spent on shiny round coins. 2015 On pace for $820,000,000. But a lot depends on average price this year.
Thats a 40% drop in spending on ASEs since 2011.
And all this while folks have been enjoying more money in their equity/bond accounts and real estate and reducing debt. People have more money to spend but its not going into ASEs.
How many times did we hear on this very board while silver was dropping a comment like, "Let it drop in half, I'll just buy twice as much". Apparently that isnt happening. Seems folks would buy 1 coin at $40 and only 1 more at $20.
Investment in ASEs has been declining for 4 years.
<< <i>I think its really funny that everyone thinks ASE demand has increased when in fact it has decreased every year for the last 4 years, including a 14% decline so far this year. >>
ASE bullion mintages since 2008: 2008 20,583,000 2009 30,459,000 2010 34,764,500 2011 40,020,000 2012 33,742,500 2013 42,675,000 2014 44,006,000 2015 16,946,000 (as of May 31, currently sales have been suspended)
Keep in mind that all temporary suspensions of silver eagle sales have occurred only in recent years thus reducing the total sales for those years.
I think its really funny that your sources are incorrect. Musta got it off the internet. >>
LOL, you still dont get it. Ill let others clue you in. >>
ASE's sold by the mint have increased every year since 2008....with the sole exception of 2012. Still, it's a clear uptrend from 2008-2014. Anyone who can draw chart can see that. And 2015 would be on track to match 2014 if the mint hadn't messed up recent month's raw material inputs. Though, they still might just make up for it even with July being intentionally suppressed. As of the end of June 2015 the mint was on track to produce 99% of the 2014 total. No 14% drop here. 21,786,000 produced through June. Source.....US Mint. A troy ounce is still a troy ounce. When the US Automakers report total cars sold do they average them per dollar value? Nope. They report total cars sold. Just like grain producers report by bushels and oil producers report by barrels.
<< <i>The relative size of the silver market is so small in comparison to the stock market and especially the bond market - my opinion is that demand will *probably* be a bigger factor than supply in most instances.
If stocks & bonds tank for some unforeseen reason, a bump in silver demand from the refugees fleeing those markets will have a reasonable shot at overwhelming the supply in silver. Mine production won't be able to compensate. In that scenario, silver can rise quickly. >>
The fact that the silver market is so small makes it a perfect candidate for price "management." Keeping silver under wraps helps to keep gold under wraps, and that helps to support the US Dollar and Treasuries. If this weren't the case there never would have been a reason for JPM (+BSC) to accumulate a $200 BILL position in silver derivatives in July 2008 (14 years of world production). And likewise, there would have been no reason for Citigroup to have added $50 BILL in silver derivatives in the first qtr of 2015 (4 years of world silver production).
And if we really wanted to do a rigorous P*Q analysis of sovereign silver sales we should do it with an average of all world mints and their respective currencies. That would be a much more accurate picture than just the ASE in dollar figures. How many of those ASE's went overseas and were purchased in Euros, Francs, Pounds, Yuan, Yen, Rupees, etc. We'll never know. Speaking of other currencies, how about Venezuela Bolivars with 770% annual inflation. And they don't even call they "hyper" yet. I wonder how many US AGE's and ASE's are finding their way into Venezuela?
<< <i>The relative size of the silver market is so small in comparison to the stock market and especially the bond market - my opinion is that demand will *probably* be a bigger factor than supply in most instances.
If stocks & bonds tank for some unforeseen reason, a bump in silver demand from the refugees fleeing those markets will have a reasonable shot at overwhelming the supply in silver. Mine production won't be able to compensate. In that scenario, silver can rise quickly. >>
Yea just like it did in 2008-9 when markets crashed ... Stage left - eyeroll...
Yes roadrunner, GM reports how many cars sold and xom h I w many barrels produced. But that is not nearly as important to price discovery or investors as the total dollar amount sold.
Truth is people are spending less money on silver, therefore less demand. That's why prices are down.
<< <i>I think its really funny that everyone thinks ASE demand has increased when in fact it has decreased every year for the last 4 years, including a 14% decline so far this year. >>
ASE bullion mintages since 2008: 2008 20,583,000 2009 30,459,000, 2010 34,764,500 2011 40,020,000 2012 33,742,500 2013 42,675,000 2014 44,006,000 2015 16,946,000 (as of May 31, currently sales have been suspended)
Keep in mind that all temporary suspensions of silver eagle sales have occurred only in recent years thus reducing the total sales for those years.
I think its really funny that your sources are incorrect. Musta got it off the internet. >>
LOL, you still dont get it. Ill let others clue you in. >>
I'm smart enough to know that demand is measured by sales. Are you? >>
I'm sure you have it by now... It depends on exactly what the definition of is, I mean, sales is... Most duped by the number(unable to think or comprehend beyond literally)... Others ??? A step into the next dimension...
<< <i>Truth is people are spending less money on silver, therefore less demand. That's why prices are down. >>
Truth is supply and demand are both measured by product units not by product price. People are demanding more silver in recent years because prices are down (yes, they are spending less for it).
Mint foreman to press operator: "Joe, how's our supply of silver planchets? Press operator: "Boss, we got 4 and half million dollars worth." Mint foreman: "Guess I'm gonna need today's spot price to get the correct answer."
Auto dealership to Ford Motor Co."We need you to ship $300,000 in F-150s ASAP." Ford Motor Co.: "That works out to 15 and one half trucks. You want the front half or the rear half?"
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< Truth is people are spending less money on silver, therefore less demand. That's why prices are down. >>
Truth is supply and demand are both measured by product units not by product price
Yes of course, companies that sell 25% more at 1/3 the price enjoy a long and profitable existance. Lol
People are less willing to be freed from their dollars than in 2011. That isn't demand growth. >>
You confuse revenue with demand. How convenient. Spin it anyway you wish but demand will always be measured by production units. This isn't like charts where you get to create your own illusion.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
You confuse revenue with demand. How convenient. Spin it anyway you wish but demand will always be measured by production units. This isn't like charts where you get to create your own illusion.
He's not confused. He's just trying to mix accounting with economics to confuse everyone else.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I'm sure the spread on cost->sales is probably fairly consistent for the mint et all. A $42 blank sold for a $46 ASE smells the same as a $14 blank sold for a $18 ASE on the books.
How is a growth in unit sales, with the same spread realized, a swing down....
<< <i>You confuse revenue with demand. How convenient. Spin it anyway you wish but demand will always be measured by production units. This isn't like charts where you get to create your own illusion.
He's not confused. He's just trying to mix accounting with economics to confuse everyone else. >>
You are already confused. I'm trying to straighten you out. People are less willing to spend m9ney...that's not demand.
<< <i>You confuse revenue with demand. How convenient. Spin it anyway you wish but demand will always be measured by production units. This isn't like charts where you get to create your own illusion.
He's not confused. He's just trying to mix accounting with economics to confuse everyone else. >>
You are already confused. I'm trying to straighten you out. People are less willing to spend m9ney...that's not demand. >>
When they buy more of a product you have more demand. Price affects demand but demand is not measured in revenue.
CEO: "how can we increase revenue?' Marketing director: "increase price." CEO "how can we increase demand." Marketing director: "increase advertising budget or lower the price."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>....Yes of course, companies that sell 25% more at 1/3 the price enjoy a long and profitable existance. Lol >>
Isn't that essentially the Silicon Valley business model for the past 20 years? Sell more product at less money? It has been a profitable existence for them. There's 6 BILL people out there that eventually will want access/information.
Comments
<< <i>I'm so sorry you choose to hide behind the calendar and conveniently forget my warnings of an extended streak as gold dropped 34% in 2008. And on cue you prefer to exaggerate as there is no way I could ahve commented on gold as I havent even been on this forum for 12 years. Go ahead an bring up my "gold is dead" thread from 2009...interesting that gold has underperformed every asset on the planet since then, except the forum's favorite dull and bland metal.
I'm here most every day, hardly hiding. I'm glad I didn't heed your dire warnings in 2008. How many warnings was that? March? July? October? Gold was as high as $924 in Sept 2008 (an 11% drop)....and over $930 in early October 2008 just only a few weeks from the "crash" bottom. It was back above $900 by January. It's hard to call all that a calamity. If it makes you feel good to say it dropped 34% keep saying it. But the reality is gold dropped and recovered 3-5 different times from March to September. You could have gotten out in 2008: April, May, June, July, September, early October and January 2009 with hardly a scratch (gold still above $900 at all those times). The one exaggerating here is you. Maybe it would be better to discuss the stock market performance from Oct 2007 to March 2009....a 50% crash....far worse than the 27% - 3 week crash that gold endured. Even during gold's March-October 2008 34% average decline the stock market was falling 30%. Telling people to exit gold in 2008 when it was only half-way to the top seems to be another miss...not much different to telling them to get out in the $1250-$1300 range in 2009/2010. Calling the past 3-4 years in PMs correctly doesn't cancel out being off the mark during much of the 10 year bull market rise.
Those gold players that got out in 2008 near the lows missed a subsequent 2.8X rise in
Sorry to hear it Zubie. Sucks to be in a position of hoping for a rally so one can dump for less of a loss than the current loss
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< I'm so sorry you choose to hide behind the calendar >>
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
The silver wasn't "used up", it was mostly recast as little collector items and resides today in people's "stacks"
And every single day, little collector items that collectors have tired of the designs, get melted down en masse and remade into today's "hot" designs"
Go to any metal retailer website, and looook at alll the different designs.
"collect 'em all!"
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>And all the huge hoards of billions of ounces (including the US stockpile) were mostly used up decades ago.
The silver wasn't "used up", it was mostly recast as little collector items and resides today in people's "stacks"
And every single day, little collector items that collectors have tired of the designs, get melted down en masse and remade into today's "hot" designs"
Go to any metal retailer website, and looook at alll the different designs.
"collect 'em all!" >>
If you look at the annual recycling numbers you will quickly figure out that of the 50 BILL ounces of silver mined throughout history, that a large majority of it is now gone. Current annual production is about 850 MILL oz per year. This year ought to mark peak gold and silver mining production. The last peak was approx 2000. The Hunts and Buffet had enough trouble just finding 100 MILL ounces to hoard. The Comex doesn't even have close to that amount in deliverable reserves....probably the same for the LBMA. So where is it all? What, you can go out and pick up a few BILLION ounces or more that easily? The central banks have a hoard of gold at 19% of known above ground supplies. Tell me where the same 19% ready made hoard in silver sits (9.5 BILL ounces). Silver is mined at 9X the amount of gold. Silver trades on the NY and London markets at 9X to 10X the amount of gold. Silver shows up in the earth's crust at approx 10X more often than gold. But, silver is used up and discarded unlike gold. If you can find all 50 BILL ounces that was ever mined, please let us know.
<< <i>The inference of the above is that there are no losses in the mainstream stock and bond markets. Just winners. Yup, there were only SM winners from 1929-1939, 1966-1982, 2000-2003, 2007-2009....just ask anyone in Baleyville. It's only the ignorant gold and silver buyers who come in at the peaks and then bail out near the bottoms.
Don't see that inference anywhere. Over and over we say that the markets are cyclical, and that diversification can help prevent an "all eggs in one basket" underperformance or outright financial disaster.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Where did it go? Not a single atom of silver is "gone", Non-fissionable elements to not disappear, they perhaps form compounds.
Some of the "used" silver might be in that photograhic material in the bottom of a landfill somewhere, but the silver is not "gone", just inaccessible.
(but perhaps more accessible than the enormous amounts dissolved in the world's oceans, or in the mantle and core, or in the asteroid belt)
The metal still exists, it's just not economically recoverable--yet.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
My employer helped to build and manage landfills from 1989-2008. Good luck trying to recover the silver from them until it's well over $100/oz. That's a very nasty business with fairly high costs and a high bar of environmental and health regulations to meet. The odor issue alone is huge. You think after spending tens of $MILLIONS to cap, line, de-water, and degas one of those is going is going to be tossed to the side while a firm comes in to recycle old metals? Please don't bring up the asteriod or sea water PM supplies as that would invite another debate with Baseball.
Below ground supplies of silver under landfills, at the bottom of oceans, or vaporized into the atmosphere during an Atomic Bomb blast aren't what we're talking about here. The current mining costs of silver don't even allow for a profit for most silver miners. And those mines are already built, accessible and in full production. The grossly non-profitable ones are being shuttered or sold off. No silver miners are considering mining landfills or asteriods just yet.
Despite the current 76 to 1 gold to silver price ratio, I'd say that the highest possible ratio of above ground supplies of silver to gold is on the order of 4 to 1 or maybe 5-1. It could be a fraction of that too.
Ok, let's reverse it: At what silver price does industry start melting up ASEs and Zombucks to use for electronics?
My answer: never, in the aggregate. Once that stuff is minted, it just sloshes around the PM market, and when .999 collector bullion is melted, it doesn't flow into 1000 good for delivery bars and into the manufacturing chain
it gets made into the newest fad collectors items with interesting shape and shiny finish
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i> Once that stuff is minted, it just sloshes around the PM market, and when .999 collector bullion is melted, it doesn't flow into 1000 good for delivery bars and into the manufacturing chain. it gets made into the newest fad collectors items with interesting shape and shiny finish >>
couple of other possibilities
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Hmm. 70% of silver usage is from industrial demand (65%) and photography (5%). That would suggest that up to 70% of mined silver could get easily "lost" or be "unrecoverable." Sort of puts a hole in theory that it all gets recycled into minted "trinkets" like coins and rounds or "little collector" items headed to B&M shops in Baleyville. Silver coins and medals are <5% of annual demand. Silverware and jewelry is 25% and even that doesn't typically go "sloshing around the PM market." It probably takes years after fabrication for most silver jewelry and silverware to make its way back to the smelter.
Some of the newest silver "fads": water purification, medical, hygiene, nanosilver technology, RFID, photo voltaic cells, auto catalysts, food packaging, super capacitors/conductors, wood preservatives, batteries, solid state lighting, ethylene oxide industry, mirrors.....and not to mention the more tried and true electrical/electronics and brazing alloys and solder (HVAC-plumbing-tool industry-automotive).
As far as 1000 oz GD silver bars go, why wouldn't some recycled .999 collector bullion make their way into those bars? The 5 major refiners in the GD bar program also make coins and other sizes of bullion bars. Do they maintain a "sniffer" that ensures no former .999 coin makes its way into their smelting process? PAMP states that they refine gold-based materials from diverse industries, and primarily include mining and the jewelry and watch industries for their products. Sure sounds like former "trinkets" going into GD bars and other non-trinket items to me. PAMP refines a lot of silverware, which no doubt makes its way into GD bars. What are the chances some of that silverware was originally from .999 and 90% silver coins/rounds?
I'd agree that ASE's and Maples never get melted unless they're damaged, spotted, ugly, etc. There's no shortage of demand for .999 sovereign silver coins. You can always find a home for the current supply at the current price. The Zombucks and other "crap" .999 stuff will eventually make its way to the smelter....maybe into a 1000 GD bar. The ASE's, Maples, Libertads, and other important sov silver always have waiting customers. I suppose if silver returns to $3-$4 oz then even ASE's might find the smelter at some time.
GD rules
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I keep hearing rumblings that the Mint is short of silver. Does JPM have it all now? Inquiring minds want to know.
temporary shortage, unexpected demand. Government agencies incapable of planning for something out of the norm.
Mint production controllers/buyers caught off guard. You'd think by now that they would keep a hoard in the back room.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>PM's are best performing general asset since 2000. >>
I like "facts" like this because it gives me a chance to do some ORIGINAL
So anyway, I went back to 2000 and compared the return on gold since then vs the DOW components that year. What did I find?, gold has outperformed 24 of the 30 components, some of the rest just barely, and others by a wide margin. But what I thought was most interesting was the general theme of the companies that have outperformed gold.
Boeing
Caterpillar
3M
Phillip Morris (Altria)
United Technology
Disney
The general theme.....all mega-manufacturing companies (except DIS--but can you get more American?) I guess the USA does have a little manufacturing business. And I thought all those jobs were gone. Sheesh.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>I keep hearing rumblings that the Mint is short of silver. Does JPM have it all now? Inquiring minds want to know.
temporary shortage, unexpected demand. Government agencies incapable of planning for something out of the norm.
Mint production controllers/buyers caught off guard. You'd think by now that they would keep a hoard in the back room. >>
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>I keep hearing rumblings that the Mint is short of silver. Does JPM have it all now? Inquiring minds want to know.
temporary shortage, unexpected demand. Government agencies incapable of planning for something out of the norm.
Mint production controllers/buyers caught off guard. You'd think by now that they would keep a hoard in the back room. >>
They minted 44 MILL ASE's in 2014, or approx 5% of world mining supply. But if you consider the BILLIONs of ounces in trinkets, rounds, jewelry, junk bars, etc. just laying around in the gutter or landfills it should be easy to find the silver. After all, the entire 50 BILL ounces of silver is still out there somewhere. How hard could it be to get just 0.1% of it back for the US Mint? And if a coin blank shortage is part of the issue, that makes no sense to me since so many firms all over the world are just looking for more production jobs, especially in the Precious Metals where things have slowed down to a death crawl.
Considering they sold a record 44 MILL ASE's in 2014, you'd think they'd be ready to handle that same amount or more in 2015. They weren't.
US Mint eagle production figures 2015
Anecdotally, this does not seem like a bullish indicator to me for silver, quite the opposite from a sentiment stand point. I think the current surge in silver eagle demand was/is coming from the Greek drama and general angst in the markets. There will most likely be plenty of silver available in the near future.
It's clear PM's are in are in a bear or flat lining market for now, until they're not, which could be soon or many years away...none of us know for sure. No reason to make the discussion more complicated than it is. but back to the title, the GDX and by extension NUGT is looking like it is failing it's test to find support at the old bottom, it hasn't broken down fully yet, so it could still find a bottom shortly, but near term trading will critical, imo.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
ASE sales chart
<< <i>The ASE's achieved an all time record in mint sales in 2014. It was 84X the AGE sales. And that certainly wasn't because of the Greek crisis. The same type of demand has been in play for 2015 as well. So make it 18 months.
ASE sales chart >>
This is another reason silver price going nowhere...
<< <i>
<< <i>The ASE's achieved an all time record in mint sales in 2014. It was 84X the AGE sales. And that certainly wasn't because of the Greek crisis. The same type of demand has been in play for 2015 as well. So make it 18 months.
ASE sales chart >>
This is another reason silver price going nowhere... >>
ASE sales have nothing to do with the price of silver. The price of silver has everything to do with ASE sales.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>The ASE's achieved an all time record in mint sales in 2014. It was 84X the AGE sales. And that certainly wasn't because of the Greek crisis. The same type of demand has been in play for 2015 as well. So make it 18 months.
ASE sales chart >>
I think its really funny that everyone thinks ASE demand has increased when in fact it has decreased every year for the last 4 years, including a 14% decline so far this year.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I think its really funny that everyone thinks ASE demand has increased when in fact it has decreased every year for the last 4 years, including a 14% decline so far this year. >>
ASE bullion mintages since 2008:
2008 20,583,000
2009 30,459,000
2010 34,764,500
2011 40,020,000
2012 33,742,500
2013 42,675,000
2014 44,006,000
2015 16,946,000 (as of May 31, currently sales have been suspended)
Keep in mind that all temporary suspensions of silver eagle sales have occurred only in recent years thus reducing the total sales for those years.
I think its really funny that your sources are incorrect. Musta got it off the internet.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>
<< <i>I think its really funny that everyone thinks ASE demand has increased when in fact it has decreased every year for the last 4 years, including a 14% decline so far this year. >>
ASE bullion mintages since 2008:
2008 20,583,000
2009 30,459,000
2010 34,764,500
2011 40,020,000
2012 33,742,500
2013 42,675,000
2014 44,006,000
2015 16,946,000 (as of May 31, currently sales have been suspended)
Keep in mind that all temporary suspensions of silver eagle sales have occurred only in recent years thus reducing the total sales for those years.
I think its really funny that your sources are incorrect. Musta got it off the internet. >>
LOL, you still dont get it. Ill let others clue you in.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
What about Demand for ASEs as measured by the product [P * Q] ?
How is that changing over time?
and maybe most interesting, how fast is the rate of change of the change?
(aka the second derivative, or in this case, deceleration of total Demand?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
If stocks & bonds tank for some unforeseen reason, a bump in silver demand from the refugees fleeing those markets will have a reasonable shot at overwhelming the supply in silver. Mine production won't be able to compensate. In that scenario, silver can rise quickly.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I think its really funny that everyone thinks ASE demand has increased when in fact it has decreased every year for the last 4 years, including a 14% decline so far this year. >>
ASE bullion mintages since 2008:
2008 20,583,000
2009 30,459,000
2010 34,764,500
2011 40,020,000
2012 33,742,500
2013 42,675,000
2014 44,006,000
2015 16,946,000 (as of May 31, currently sales have been suspended)
Keep in mind that all temporary suspensions of silver eagle sales have occurred only in recent years thus reducing the total sales for those years.
I think its really funny that your sources are incorrect. Musta got it off the internet. >>
LOL, you still dont get it. Ill let others clue you in. >>
I'm smart enough to know that demand is measured by sales. Are you?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Winner winner!!!
2011 $1,400,000,000 spent on shiny round coins.
2012 $1,051,000,000 spent on shiny round coins.
2013 $1,015,000,000 spent on shiny round coins.
2014 $838,000,000 spent on shiny round coins.
2015 On pace for $820,000,000. But a lot depends on average price this year.
Thats a 40% drop in spending on ASEs since 2011.
And all this while folks have been enjoying more money in their equity/bond accounts and real estate and reducing debt. People have more money to spend but its not going into ASEs.
How many times did we hear on this very board while silver was dropping a comment like, "Let it drop in half, I'll just buy twice as much". Apparently that isnt happening. Seems folks would buy 1 coin at $40 and only 1 more at $20.
Investment in ASEs has been declining for 4 years.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I think its really funny that everyone thinks ASE demand has increased when in fact it has decreased every year for the last 4 years, including a 14% decline so far this year. >>
ASE bullion mintages since 2008:
2008 20,583,000
2009 30,459,000
2010 34,764,500
2011 40,020,000
2012 33,742,500
2013 42,675,000
2014 44,006,000
2015 16,946,000 (as of May 31, currently sales have been suspended)
Keep in mind that all temporary suspensions of silver eagle sales have occurred only in recent years thus reducing the total sales for those years.
I think its really funny that your sources are incorrect. Musta got it off the internet. >>
LOL, you still dont get it. Ill let others clue you in. >>
ASE's sold by the mint have increased every year since 2008....with the sole exception of 2012. Still, it's a clear uptrend from 2008-2014. Anyone who can draw chart can see that. And 2015 would be on track to match 2014 if the mint hadn't messed up recent month's raw material inputs. Though, they still might just make up for it even with July being intentionally suppressed. As of the end of June 2015 the mint was on track to produce 99% of the 2014 total. No 14% drop here. 21,786,000 produced through June. Source.....US Mint. A troy ounce is still a troy ounce. When the US Automakers report total cars sold do they average them per dollar value? Nope. They report total cars sold. Just like grain producers report by bushels and oil producers report by barrels.
2015 ASE's per US Mint
Yes i am. And apparently you dont know what you know.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>The relative size of the silver market is so small in comparison to the stock market and especially the bond market - my opinion is that demand will *probably* be a bigger factor than supply in most instances.
If stocks & bonds tank for some unforeseen reason, a bump in silver demand from the refugees fleeing those markets will have a reasonable shot at overwhelming the supply in silver. Mine production won't be able to compensate. In that scenario, silver can rise quickly. >>
The fact that the silver market is so small makes it a perfect candidate for price "management." Keeping silver under wraps helps to keep gold under wraps, and that helps to support the US Dollar and Treasuries. If this weren't the case there never would have been a reason for JPM (+BSC) to accumulate a $200 BILL position in silver derivatives in July 2008 (14 years of world production). And likewise, there would have been no reason for Citigroup to have added $50 BILL in silver derivatives in the first qtr of 2015 (4 years of world silver production).
And if we really wanted to do a rigorous P*Q analysis of sovereign silver sales we should do it with an average of all world mints and their respective currencies. That would be a much more accurate picture than just the ASE in dollar figures. How many of those ASE's went overseas and were purchased in Euros, Francs, Pounds, Yuan, Yen, Rupees, etc. We'll never know. Speaking of other currencies, how about Venezuela Bolivars with 770% annual inflation. And they don't even call they "hyper" yet. I wonder how many US AGE's and ASE's are finding their way into Venezuela?
<< <i>The relative size of the silver market is so small in comparison to the stock market and especially the bond market - my opinion is that demand will *probably* be a bigger factor than supply in most instances.
If stocks & bonds tank for some unforeseen reason, a bump in silver demand from the refugees fleeing those markets will have a reasonable shot at overwhelming the supply in silver. Mine production won't be able to compensate. In that scenario, silver can rise quickly. >>
Yea just like it did in 2008-9 when markets crashed ... Stage left - eyeroll...
Truth is people are spending less money on silver, therefore less demand. That's why prices are down.
No manipulation. No conspiracy.
Simply less dollars traded for silver.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I think its really funny that everyone thinks ASE demand has increased when in fact it has decreased every year for the last 4 years, including a 14% decline so far this year. >>
ASE bullion mintages since 2008:
2008 20,583,000
2009 30,459,000,
2010 34,764,500
2011 40,020,000
2012 33,742,500
2013 42,675,000
2014 44,006,000
2015 16,946,000 (as of May 31, currently sales have been suspended)
Keep in mind that all temporary suspensions of silver eagle sales have occurred only in recent years thus reducing the total sales for those years.
I think its really funny that your sources are incorrect. Musta got it off the internet. >>
LOL, you still dont get it. Ill let others clue you in. >>
I'm smart enough to know that demand is measured by sales. Are you? >>
I'm sure you have it by now... It depends on exactly what the definition of is, I mean, sales is...
Most duped by the number(unable to think or comprehend beyond literally)... Others ??? A step into the next dimension...
Being obtuse? Is it intentional?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Truth is people are spending less money on silver, therefore less demand. That's why prices are down. >>
Truth is supply and demand are both measured by product units not by product price. People are demanding more silver in recent years because prices are down (yes, they are spending less for it).
Mint foreman to press operator: "Joe, how's our supply of silver planchets?
Press operator: "Boss, we got 4 and half million dollars worth."
Mint foreman: "Guess I'm gonna need today's spot price to get the correct answer."
Auto dealership to Ford Motor Co."We need you to ship $300,000 in F-150s ASAP."
Ford Motor Co.: "That works out to 15 and one half trucks. You want the front half or the rear half?"
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
No, just like it did from late 2008 to early 2011, from $9.00 to $45.00 while the stock market did........what? Went from about 9,300 to 12,300?
Two different animals, which is what my post said. At least your posts are somewhat more coherent lately.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Yea just like it did in 2008-9 when markets crashed ... Stage left - eyeroll...
No, just like it did from late 2008 to early 2011, from $9.00 to $45.00 while the stock market did........what? Went from about 9,300 to 12,300?
Two different animals, which is what my post said. At least your posts are somewhat more coherent lately. >>
Awhhh, didn't stock market crash end in early 2009???? What?
<< Truth is people are spending less money on silver, therefore less demand. That's why prices are down. >>
Truth is supply and demand are both measured by product units not by product price
Yes of course, companies that sell 25% more at 1/3 the price enjoy a long and profitable existance. Lol
People are less willing to be freed from their dollars than in 2011. That isn't demand growth.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< Truth is people are spending less money on silver, therefore less demand. That's why prices are down. >>
Truth is supply and demand are both measured by product units not by product price
Yes of course, companies that sell 25% more at 1/3 the price enjoy a long and profitable existance. Lol
People are less willing to be freed from their dollars than in 2011. That isn't demand growth. >>
You confuse revenue with demand. How convenient. Spin it anyway you wish but demand will always be measured by production units. This isn't like charts where you get to create your own illusion.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
He's not confused. He's just trying to mix accounting with economics to confuse everyone else.
I knew it would happen.
How is a growth in unit sales, with the same spread realized, a swing down....
<< <i>You confuse revenue with demand. How convenient. Spin it anyway you wish but demand will always be measured by production units. This isn't like charts where you get to create your own illusion.
He's not confused. He's just trying to mix accounting with economics to confuse everyone else. >>
You are already confused. I'm trying to straighten you out. People are less willing to spend m9ney...that's not demand.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>You confuse revenue with demand. How convenient. Spin it anyway you wish but demand will always be measured by production units. This isn't like charts where you get to create your own illusion.
He's not confused. He's just trying to mix accounting with economics to confuse everyone else. >>
You are already confused. I'm trying to straighten you out. People are less willing to spend m9ney...that's not demand. >>
When they buy more of a product you have more demand. Price affects demand but demand is not measured in revenue.
CEO: "how can we increase revenue?'
Marketing director: "increase price."
CEO "how can we increase demand."
Marketing director: "increase advertising budget or lower the price."
Speaking of demand. . .
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Could be capitulation, but at this point it's officially a falling knife, don't trade without a tourniquet.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Does anyone else think NUGT may have just bottomed out at $6.30...finally! If you were thinking about NUGT, this might be a huge opportunity? >>
miners and metals have not reached bottom. They are close enough to start buying. >>
Derryb, at least one of your statements is on the mark, but the other one?
<< <i>....Yes of course, companies that sell 25% more at 1/3 the price enjoy a long and profitable existance. Lol
>>
Isn't that essentially the Silicon Valley business model for the past 20 years? Sell more product at less money? It has been a profitable existence for them. There's 6 BILL people out there that eventually will want access/information.