RR I know you don't hold this for weeks on end, but many do.
Back to GDX, looking at the long term chart for XAU which has more data, it's only about 10% above it all-time low and that was when PMs were 70% lower. Something eventually must give.
I've considered the possibility that precious metals mining is a flawed business as currently run. It's only in the past 2 years that some companies are starting to report "all-in sustaining" costs. Before that they reported "cash costs" which left out 40-50% of actual costs. Their balance sheets tend to be more smoke and mirrors than reality....not unlike a TBTF bank or a sovereign nation. The "hidden" otc derivatives to the big banks are like the "hidden resources and costs" of the PM miners. The mining environment has gotten much more difficult in the past 10, 20, 45 years. They now mine deeper, higher, in absurd environments of cold-heat-and flooding. The political and environmental requirements have only gotten more onerous. Jurisdiction and sovereign taxes/royalties only go up. Graft runs high, often right up to the CEO's.
Sometimes I wonder if these guys are honestly viable companies in today's world. It's not like we need the extra gold with 165,000 tonnes already above ground. $1500-$2000 gold will certainly save the miner's butts. Gold bullions has a big advantage as it just has to "sit there and do nothing" day in and day, only responding in price against currency, interest rates, various other markets, and the "news" of the day. Miners did very well at the start of this last bull market (2001-2004). But they underperformed the metals in the end portion. 1970s were similar.
Barrick is now back to 1989 price levels. Newmont is back to median price levels seen in 1998-2001 and 1979-1986. It's all time peak of $82 came in fall of 1987, just before the flash crash. Something is wrong with this model.
<< <i>RR, you aren't throwing in the proverbial towel on the miners are you? >>
Never say never. One has to consider all possibilities. And it is a tough business....where your "assets" (if you actually have them) are hidden underground. They tend to do their best early in PM up-cycles while they are still lean and mean. Silver tends to the do the best at the end of PM cycles (ie 2nd half of 1979 and early 2011).
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>and a nice 50% rebound from the bottom.....mark >>
Getting in on that bottom was the hard part as this tanked from $10 to $3 in short order. That was a particularly difficult grinding fall for the record books. In the spring I saw $5 as the worst case for NUGT if everything bad happened with chart patterns breaking down fully....and all previous GDX gaps getting filled. But, I didn't see $2.90 coming. One guy I watch who publishes nationally on the major PM sites (Rambus), doubled up on DUST from June to July 24th. But they bought back in during the end of July figuring there was one more miners crash to come. The BLS dip helped to pull them all the way back in. Well, they overstayed their welcome by 1-2 days and bailed out on Tuesday....giving back 46% of their July wins. When they swing, they swing BIG.
Today's large gap up in GDX suggests it might just go past the first gap at $15.43 and head for the next higher one at $16.16. 50 dma will be nearby soon. That would take NUGT up to $5.40.
$17.25 is a decent former resistance/support area, and about a 50% retrace of this last leg down. That would project NUGT to $6.50.
<< <i>Today's large gap up in GDX suggests it might just go past the first gap at $15.43 and head for the next higher one at $16.16. 50 dma will be nearby soon. That would take NUGT up to $5.40.
$17.25 is a decent former resistance/support area, and about a 50% retrace of this last leg down. That would project NUGT to $6.50. >>
1080 gold was tested, probed, assaulted and held. With a close of $4.74 it's well over 60% from the bottom. Not shabby
mark
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>I would not short SPY. That's counterproductive in the long run. >>
Yup, cant beat inflation. But if one wants to take advantage of mispricings, then TA is a great way to identify short term opportunity via favorable risk/return parameters.
<< <i>Someone smarter than me should post a 30 year ratio chart of the XAU vs SP-500. Now thats interesting. >>
Anyone play this?......
Long GDX at 13.62 short SPY at 210.18
would be 15.39 and 197.63 respectively. Up 13% and 6% in a month. Gotta love this kind of technical analysis. >>
If one didn't sell out Friday or Monday, that GDX play is now flat....today it dipped 2c under the starting point of $13.62. POOF. What a difference 1-2 days makes.
Another banner day for stocks. Up big to start....and down bigger to end. Nugt follows.
You keep patting yourself on the back (and others) for great trades, only to see them go up in smoke after you mentioned them. Keep them coming......we like to see you chasing your own tail.
You must have been a sheltered child. The roadrunner was the one out in front of the coyote....not the other way around. And the roadrunner was never caught....always stayed out in front. Hint: the coyote was the loser. You might want to stop congratulating people for buying these SM dips until the descent actually ends. It reminds of the coyote being passed the ACME anvil from the roadrunner as he steps off the cliff's edge. But that was only a cartoon show with lots of make believe stuff that violated the laws of physics and reality.....much the same way your economics does.
The world's biggest SM supporter is now bashing it. Thing is, I don't see anyone around here stating they are holding shorts. You may be the only one....though I doubt you even took your even trade. I suspect you're going to tell us you sold GDX last week but held the SPY shorts, right? Last we knew your were long GDX calls from months back....never said anything about selling them. Can only assume you still hold them.
I just posted a trade setup that works very well for me. It's up to you to decide what to do or speculate what I did. You seem to like mysteries. I will tell you that yesterday my acct ended the day 4% higher than the day before. I took today off.
<< <i>I like the "great trades going up in smoke". If it was a great trade it wouldn't have gone up in smoke. This isn't the gold market. Lol. >>
They weren't trades unless someone followed them. I consider recommendations to buy or not to buy to have the same weight as doing the actual trade. Are saying you didn't say Amazon was done at 260...or Google was cooked around 500 (pre-split)? Those are just a couple of I'm aware off along with the "sell gold" recommendation around $1190 in 2009. I'm sure there are others. Congrats on your 4% from yesterday.
8:00 pm EST overseas opening PM hit. Right on schedule. Those guys don't like to waste even a minute.
Here you go toadrunner, I said BIIB was on its death run when it was about 250. It went to 450. So what. When I make a call, I don't lose $$$. Unlike some who wish to hold loses for years and years. I follow relative valuations. That why my gdx/spy trade worked so well. You have this long term mindset---it's why you're stuck in the 70s. Hey, that's ok. You make your trades, I'll make mine. We'll sort it out in the end.
BTW- I think you would find it insightful to look at a chart of gold vs dollar index.
And that wasn't a 4% trade. It was my entire account going up 4%.
Yup, I said not to buy amzn and it dropped 20%. Then it went higher. So what? And I said I wasn't buying Goog, I don remember what it did immediately after, but I have traded it many times since.
In contraSt you keep warning of derivatives exploding and intimating manipulation like you just did. So how does this help anyone.? All these conspiracies and manipulations and banksters and derivatives, yet PMs are still at the same price as 6-8;years ago. Who cares if they went up in the meantime. Today the are empty promises and people have died waiting for these promises to payoff.
Eventually PMs will go up and we'll all smile, but continued banksters manipulation conspiracy derivative petroyuans nonsense is just that.
I didn't always speak highly of equities and I didn't always stay away from pms. Be balanced, be level-headed, make money. That's my plan and I'm sticking to it.
<< <i>I didn't always speak highly of equities and I didn't always stay away from pms. Be balanced, be level-headed, make money. That's my plan and I'm sticking to it. >>
Always a sound plan, make money.
I have been on here for years and I can't remember when you did not speak highly of equities though. You have always been an equity guy in my mind (not that this is a bad thing btw).
Are saying you didn't say Amazon was done at 260...or Google was cooked around 500 (pre-split)? Those are just a couple of I'm aware off along with the "sell gold" recommendation around $1190 in 2009. I'm sure there are others.
Yup, CMG dropped about 20% also then those damn FED'S goose the market. Not my fault it went up.
I do tend to underestimate manias. Always have. Oh well, a dollar not played is a dollar not lost. Plenty of other trades...I was with Baley on his HALO for the contest, but backed away since that's his pick. My target was 16 and I would have sold. It went to 25. Oh well. Hard to cry over another profitable trade.
<< <i>Yup, I said not to buy amzn and it dropped 20%. Then it went higher. So what? And I said I wasn't buying Goog, I don remember what it did immediately after, but I have traded it many times since.
In contraSt you keep warning of derivatives exploding and intimating manipulation like you just did. So how does this help anyone.? All these conspiracies and manipulations and banksters and derivatives, yet PMs are still at the same price as 6-8;years ago. Who cares if they went up in the meantime. Today the are empty promises and people have died waiting for these promises to payoff.
Eventually PMs will go up and we'll all smile, but continued banksters manipulation conspiracy derivative petroyuans nonsense is just that.
I didn't always speak highly of equities and I didn't always stay away from pms. Be balanced, be level-headed, make money. That's my plan and I'm sticking to it. >>
Me and half a dozen others DID warn you repeatedly that derivatives would explode, all the way from 2002-2008. You ignored all of that....as well as the bullish PM talk. And guess what? Derivatives literally exploded in Sept-October 2008. No debating it. MBS and CDS derivs blew up big time. How can you even debate that? It's in the public record. The financial system would have locked up solid for weeks without FED intervention of $11-$22 TRILL. Google the names AIG, BSC, and Lehman, then go from there. You'll find out all about 2008. Nothing has changed since 2008. But, next time around those derivative's won't explode....apparently because they put them on longer fuses and hid them in stronger vaults....lol.
If your plan is to be balanced and level-headed.....I'm not seeing any of that as of late. Just sayin.
I was very bearish on equities from 2008-2010. Made some good trades both long and short, but had low confidence. I loved Japanese stocks for years even though they were stuck for awhile.
I mentioned in March I thought the spx would drop to 1850 from 2070. That's hardly an endorsement for stocks. But let's not interchange stocks for the stock market. I see them as different. Maybe thats why some have a hard time hearing what I write.
All aset classes go up and down. Some people look for reasons why. I just look for opportunities. And yes, sometimes I lose on a trade. I'm not as perfect as roadrunner wants me to be.
I believed you in 2008. I did. And I spoke of the same. Go back and re-read from 2008/2009. I was with ya brother. But then the rhetoric got too convoluted and quite honestly, insane. So I thought criticality and separated myself from the noise and used common sense. I see things much more clearly than you think I do. I understand all you see and know your concerns. I developed a much deeper understandin of investor psychology and it works for me. And I know your a smart enough fellow that if you just to 2 steps back, you would see much more also.
If you think you see all you need to see then so be it. But I know I can see more of the tree when I take a few steps back. I can see the whole crowd from the bleachers rather than in the mosh pit. There are lots of metaphors, but I think you get my point.
I'm not going to try to teach you new tricks. But maybe you can teach yourself.
<< <i>And how have you benefitted from this derivative explosion? >>
You don't remember? I've mentioned numerous times how I entered into the gold and silver markets in Sept 2002 at $315 gold. It was all based on reading Sinclair's derivatives article in the Rosen Numismatic Advisory....yeah, in a coin newsletter of all places. Paid $48 for a subscription. Maurice knows how to pick some important articles. After reading Sinclair's article I was hooked that something nasty was coming. He felt $1200 gold would come with that deriv's mess (later upped it to $1650). Both he and Maurice convinced me PM's were the place to be for at least the next 5-10 years. Sinclair was looking at the 2008-2012 time frame for a blow up. JPM had $38 TRILL in otc derivs at that time...about half of where they eventually got to in Dec 2008. Bought my first 2 dozen or so BU $20 Saints/Libs in Sept 2002. Gold's acceleration in 2007-2008 and then in 2009-2011 had plenty to do with derivative's being under stress. And that potential is still there, especially since the first go around only triggered failure in the credit swaps and mortgage-backed securities. If interest rates are ever allowed to rise more than a pinch, the 80% of current otc derivs that Interest Rate Swaps comprise....will be at extreme risk. It only takes one domino to topple to start the chain. BSC provided the fuse on the last one. Lehman provided the High Explosives...and they were only a small brokerage/trading firm compared to the big 5 banks. The rocket fuel remains on the launch pad.
How did I benefit? By nice gains in PM's...some of which I cashed out. While it is rumored that "everyone" only bought gold in 2011 as it peaked, I did nearly all of my buying in 2002-2009....and most in those earlier years. Never really got the taste for gold bullion as many of my purchases were with the $20's. I've always liked them, esp. MS64/65 Saints.
I see the same longer view from the bleachers. What, you think I've watched this entire 4 year bear unfold day by day and didn't figure out where it was probably heading? I mentioned right here (and in the Kitco blog) in January/early February 2012 that the monthly macd cross looked horrendous. It scared the crap out of me. That was 2 months before the first crash. I knew the potential and saw the chart pattern. And just because you see "it" doesn't mean you can trade it. I wasn't short in April-June 2013. Not short at any time in 2015 either. Different triggers for different folks. Recall also that I tried to bail my friend out of his gold in September 2012 as it peaked during the Long Beach show at $1793....the last hurrah. I posted that here too. He didn't even listen though. I knew things were going to get much worse. In December 2012 I took advantage of some tax off sets and unloaded a pile of $20's at $1710 gold. That was probably the real last chance to get out good. Trading isn't charting. And charting isn't trading. I know the difference. I do see what I need to see. What clouds that is what other people are seeing and place into your field of view. Rely on your own vision, not Cohodk's, not Edelson's, not Armstrong's, not Sinclair's, etc.
I tried to bail my friend out of his gold in September 2012 as it peaked during the Long Beach show at $1793....the last hurrah. I posted that here too. He didn't even liste
Lets get back to the Thread instead all the personalized who did what, when, how and how much.
Will NUGT DROP BELOW $3.00 today? And what are our tarot card readers, oops I meant our in house PM statisticians, predicting now? Cudos to derryb's recent predictions on PM's....(We haven't seen the bottom yet!) and JPM's 2014 prediction for 2015....$1100 gold by e/o year.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
NUGT will probably make a new low today, but NUGT really defies any real technical analysis, because it's a very flawed long term investment like all leveraged ETFs. On the other hand GDX currently stands 3% above it's longerterm low of just a few weeks ago.
If the low holds on GDX within a couple of percent and it moves higher...then you may get stronger double bottom that would be very tradeable, imo ..if it breaks the lows with any conviction watch out below, which of course is the ongoing saga with this and many commodity ETFs over the last few years, although the downside is no doubt getting smaller with these new lows, which keep coming in.
NUGT will probably make a new low today, but NUGT really defies any real technical analysis, because it's a very flawed long term investment like all leveraged ETFs. On the other hand GDX currently stands 3% above it's longerterm low of just a few weeks ago.
If the low holds on GDX within a couple of percent and it moves higher...then you may get stronger double bottom that would be very tradeable, imo ..if it breaks the lows with any conviction watch out below, which of course is the ongoing saga with this and many commodity ETFs over the last few years, although the downside is no doubt getting smaller with these new lows, which keep coming in. >>
Thanks for your input FYI....NUGT did manage to hit below $3.00 ($2.65 as I post ) GDX did also broke it's recent low....now at $13.00 ...
What next?
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
Not a pretty day for GDX or NUGT, the only silver lining which may be gone by tomorrow is that GDX basically held it's lows from a few weeks which was 13.01 it dipped to 12.97 but held on barely. One way or the other it will get interesting here.
Comments
Back to GDX, looking at the long term chart for XAU which has more data, it's only about 10% above it all-time low and that was when PMs were 70% lower.
Something eventually must give.
XAU
Sometimes I wonder if these guys are honestly viable companies in today's world. It's not like we need the extra gold with 165,000 tonnes already above ground. $1500-$2000 gold will certainly save the miner's butts. Gold bullions has a big advantage as it just has to "sit there and do nothing" day in and day, only responding in price against currency, interest rates, various other markets, and the "news" of the day. Miners did very well at the start of this last bull market (2001-2004). But they underperformed the metals in the end portion. 1970s were similar.
Barrick is now back to 1989 price levels. Newmont is back to median price levels seen in 1998-2001 and 1979-1986. It's all time peak of $82 came in fall of 1987, just before the flash crash. Something is wrong with this model.
<< <i>RR, you aren't throwing in the proverbial towel on the miners are you?
Never say never. One has to consider all possibilities. And it is a tough business....where your "assets" (if you actually have them) are hidden underground. They tend to do their best early in PM up-cycles while they are still lean and mean. Silver tends to the do the best at the end of PM cycles (ie 2nd half of 1979 and early 2011).
I still haven't been stopped out of my spec. NUGT position currently at break even
GDX currently 3+% above Fridays lows, will be interesting to see if it can hold for any length of time.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
RSI indicating bounce?
LINKY
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>and a nice 50% rebound from the bottom.....mark >>
Getting in on that bottom was the hard part as this tanked from $10 to $3 in short order. That was a particularly difficult grinding fall for the record books. In the spring I saw $5 as the worst case for NUGT if everything bad happened with chart patterns breaking down fully....and all previous GDX gaps getting filled. But, I didn't see $2.90 coming. One guy I watch who publishes nationally on the major PM sites (Rambus), doubled up on DUST from June to July 24th. But they bought back in during the end of July figuring there was one more miners crash to come. The BLS dip helped to pull them all the way back in. Well, they overstayed their welcome by 1-2 days and bailed out on Tuesday....giving back 46% of their July wins. When they swing, they swing BIG.
$17.25 is a decent former resistance/support area, and about a 50% retrace of this last leg down. That would project NUGT to $6.50.
<< <i>Today's large gap up in GDX suggests it might just go past the first gap at $15.43 and head for the next higher one at $16.16. 50 dma will be nearby soon. That would take NUGT up to $5.40.
$17.25 is a decent former resistance/support area, and about a 50% retrace of this last leg down. That would project NUGT to $6.50. >>
1080 gold was tested, probed, assaulted and held. With a close of $4.74 it's well over 60% from the bottom. Not shabby
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>Someone smarter than me should post a 30 year ratio chart of the XAU vs SP-500. Now thats interesting.
Anyone play this?......
Long GDX at 13.62 short SPY at 210.18
would be 15.39 and 197.63 respectively. Up 13% and 6% in a month. Gotta love this kind of technical analysis.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I would not short SPY. That's counterproductive in the long run. >>
Yup, cant beat inflation. But if one wants to take advantage of mispricings, then TA is a great way to identify short term opportunity via favorable risk/return parameters.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>Someone smarter than me should post a 30 year ratio chart of the XAU vs SP-500. Now thats interesting.
Anyone play this?......
Long GDX at 13.62 short SPY at 210.18
would be 15.39 and 197.63 respectively. Up 13% and 6% in a month. Gotta love this kind of technical analysis.
If one didn't sell out Friday or Monday, that GDX play is now flat....today it dipped 2c under the starting point of $13.62. POOF. What a difference 1-2 days makes.
Let's see 8%...that's a better return than gold in 2012, 2013, 2014, probably 2015. And I didn't have to wait for the "inevitable". Lol
Keep trying roadrunner. You'll catch that coyote someday. Haha
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
You keep patting yourself on the back (and others) for great trades, only to see them go up in smoke after you mentioned them. Keep them coming......we like to see you chasing your own tail.
You must have been a sheltered child. The roadrunner was the one out in front of the coyote....not the other way around. And the roadrunner was never caught....always stayed out in front. Hint: the coyote was the loser. You might want to stop congratulating people for buying these SM dips until the descent actually ends. It reminds of the coyote being passed the ACME anvil from the roadrunner as he steps off the cliff's edge. But that was only a cartoon show with lots of make believe stuff that violated the laws of physics and reality.....much the same way your economics does.
The world's biggest SM supporter is now bashing it. Thing is, I don't see anyone around here stating they are holding shorts. You may be the only one....though I doubt you even took your even trade. I suspect you're going to tell us you sold GDX last week but held the SPY shorts, right? Last we knew your were long GDX calls from months back....never said anything about selling them. Can only assume you still hold them.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I like the "great trades going up in smoke". If it was a great trade it wouldn't have gone up in smoke. This isn't the gold market. Lol. >>
They weren't trades unless someone followed them. I consider recommendations to buy or not to buy to have the same weight as doing the actual trade. Are saying you didn't say Amazon was done at 260...or Google was cooked around 500 (pre-split)? Those are just a couple of I'm aware off along with the "sell gold" recommendation around $1190 in 2009. I'm sure there are others. Congrats on your 4% from yesterday.
8:00 pm EST overseas opening PM hit. Right on schedule. Those guys don't like to waste even a minute.
BTW- I think you would find it insightful to look at a chart of gold vs dollar index.
And that wasn't a 4% trade. It was my entire account going up 4%.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>8:00 pm EST overseas opening PM hit. Right on schedule. Those guys don't like to waste even a minute. >>
Good. Take it to sub 1k and $10 already. I want to make some big purchases already!
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
In contraSt you keep warning of derivatives exploding and intimating manipulation like you just did. So how does this help anyone.? All these conspiracies and manipulations and banksters and derivatives, yet PMs are still at the same price as 6-8;years ago. Who cares if they went up in the meantime. Today the are empty promises and people have died waiting for these promises to payoff.
Eventually PMs will go up and we'll all smile, but continued banksters manipulation conspiracy derivative petroyuans nonsense is just that.
I didn't always speak highly of equities and I didn't always stay away from pms. Be balanced, be level-headed, make money. That's my plan and I'm sticking to it.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I didn't always speak highly of equities and I didn't always stay away from pms. Be balanced, be level-headed, make money. That's my plan and I'm sticking to it. >>
Always a sound plan, make money.
I have been on here for years and I can't remember when you did not speak highly of equities though. You have always been an equity guy in my mind (not that this is a bad thing btw).
BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
CMG comes to mind
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I do tend to underestimate manias. Always have. Oh well, a dollar not played is a dollar not lost. Plenty of other trades...I was with Baley on his HALO for the contest, but backed away since that's his pick. My target was 16 and I would have sold. It went to 25. Oh well. Hard to cry over another profitable trade.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Yup, I said not to buy amzn and it dropped 20%. Then it went higher. So what? And I said I wasn't buying Goog, I don remember what it did immediately after, but I have traded it many times since.
In contraSt you keep warning of derivatives exploding and intimating manipulation like you just did. So how does this help anyone.? All these conspiracies and manipulations and banksters and derivatives, yet PMs are still at the same price as 6-8;years ago. Who cares if they went up in the meantime. Today the are empty promises and people have died waiting for these promises to payoff.
Eventually PMs will go up and we'll all smile, but continued banksters manipulation conspiracy derivative petroyuans nonsense is just that.
I didn't always speak highly of equities and I didn't always stay away from pms. Be balanced, be level-headed, make money. That's my plan and I'm sticking to it. >>
Me and half a dozen others DID warn you repeatedly that derivatives would explode, all the way from 2002-2008. You ignored all of that....as well as the bullish PM talk. And guess what? Derivatives literally exploded in Sept-October 2008. No debating it. MBS and CDS derivs blew up big time. How can you even debate that? It's in the public record. The financial system would have locked up solid for weeks without FED intervention of $11-$22 TRILL. Google the names AIG, BSC, and Lehman, then go from there. You'll find out all about 2008. Nothing has changed since 2008. But, next time around those derivative's won't explode....apparently because they put them on longer fuses and hid them in stronger vaults....lol.
If your plan is to be balanced and level-headed.....I'm not seeing any of that as of late. Just sayin.
I mentioned in March I thought the spx would drop to 1850 from 2070. That's hardly an endorsement for stocks. But let's not interchange stocks for the stock market. I see them as different. Maybe thats why some have a hard time hearing what I write.
All aset classes go up and down. Some people look for reasons why. I just look for opportunities. And yes, sometimes I lose on a trade. I'm not as perfect as roadrunner wants me to be.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
If you think you see all you need to see then so be it. But I know I can see more of the tree when I take a few steps back. I can see the whole crowd from the bleachers rather than in the mosh pit. There are lots of metaphors, but I think you get my point.
I'm not going to try to teach you new tricks. But maybe you can teach yourself.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>And how have you benefitted from this derivative explosion? >>
You don't remember? I've mentioned numerous times how I entered into the gold and silver markets in Sept 2002 at $315 gold. It was all based on reading Sinclair's derivatives article in the Rosen Numismatic Advisory....yeah, in a coin newsletter of all places. Paid $48 for a subscription. Maurice knows how to pick some important articles. After reading Sinclair's article I was hooked that something nasty was coming. He felt $1200 gold would come with that deriv's mess (later upped it to $1650). Both he and Maurice convinced me PM's were the place to be for at least the next 5-10 years. Sinclair was looking at the 2008-2012 time frame for a blow up. JPM had $38 TRILL in otc derivs at that time...about half of where they eventually got to in Dec 2008. Bought my first 2 dozen or so BU $20 Saints/Libs in Sept 2002. Gold's acceleration in 2007-2008 and then in 2009-2011 had plenty to do with derivative's being under stress. And that potential is still there, especially since the first go around only triggered failure in the credit swaps and mortgage-backed securities. If interest rates are ever allowed to rise more than a pinch, the 80% of current otc derivs that Interest Rate Swaps comprise....will be at extreme risk. It only takes one domino to topple to start the chain. BSC provided the fuse on the last one. Lehman provided the High Explosives...and they were only a small brokerage/trading firm compared to the big 5 banks. The rocket fuel remains on the launch pad.
How did I benefit? By nice gains in PM's...some of which I cashed out. While it is rumored that "everyone" only bought gold in 2011 as it peaked, I did nearly all of my buying in 2002-2009....and most in those earlier years. Never really got the taste for gold bullion as many of my purchases were with the $20's. I've always liked them, esp. MS64/65 Saints.
Frustrating, isn't it.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Will NUGT DROP BELOW $3.00 today? And what are our tarot card readers, oops I meant our in house PM statisticians, predicting now?
Cudos to derryb's recent predictions on PM's....(We haven't seen the bottom yet!) and JPM's 2014 prediction for 2015....$1100 gold by e/o year.
NUGT will probably make a new low today, but NUGT really defies any real technical analysis, because it's a very flawed long term investment like all leveraged ETFs.
On the other hand GDX currently stands 3% above it's longerterm low of just a few weeks ago.
If the low holds on GDX within a couple of percent and it moves higher...then you may get stronger double bottom that would be very tradeable, imo ..if it breaks the lows with any conviction watch out below, which of course is the ongoing saga with this and many commodity ETFs over the last few years, although the downside is no doubt getting smaller with these new lows, which keep coming in.
<< <i>Will NUGT DROP BELOW $3.00 today?
NUGT will probably make a new low today, but NUGT really defies any real technical analysis, because it's a very flawed long term investment like all leveraged ETFs.
On the other hand GDX currently stands 3% above it's longerterm low of just a few weeks ago.
If the low holds on GDX within a couple of percent and it moves higher...then you may get stronger double bottom that would be very tradeable, imo ..if it breaks the lows with any conviction watch out below, which of course is the ongoing saga with this and many commodity ETFs over the last few years, although the downside is no doubt getting smaller with these new lows, which keep coming in. >>
Thanks for your input
FYI....NUGT did manage to hit below $3.00 ($2.65 as I post )
GDX did also broke it's recent low....now at $13.00 ...
What next?
<< <i>GDX is still groping within pennies of it's low...so it's not dead YET >>
True, but that low occurred about 1 hour ago.
GDX chart
<< <i>Picture worth a thousand words...
GDX chart >>
I think that saying should be changed to "a thousand dollars".
Knowledge is the enemy of fear