Got back in this morning at $8.81 figuring the gold gaps higher at $1151 and 1159 would bring it up. There were no gold gaps lower at the time. But, I didn't have confidence that gold wouldn't immediately retrace that huge 2 PM FOMC gap up...so I bailed out at $9.38 within 1-2 minutes of the announcement. Seen too many initial head fakes higher ripping back way lower. Boy was that dumb in hindsight.
Great head fake by the boyz early today forcing GDX under the key $17.75 support by 4c. It looked a goner. Then came right back to simmer in the $17.90 to $18.10 area prior to FOMC oracle (Nugt continually finding support the past week in the 8.80-9.10 range). HFT algo's earned their money today....and most of the past 5 days setting everyone up.
But, I see MJ saw through the ruse. Good job hanging in there!
Today's very large 2 pm gap up in spot gold does suggest price will be back to $1153 once again. It's just a matter of when. Could be 1 day, 1 week, or 6 months.
Ya, I was in on DUST initially, then, was at the SD Wild Animal Park fumbling with my phone at 11am Pacific time trying to log on and get in on the action which ever way it was going to go. Only got in on about 8% of the 15% increase, but, I'll take that all day! Trying to decide if I want this large position to ride for the week or two?
RR if I had the time to scalp Im sure I would have sold about where you did. My swing trade was setting up for weeks and I picked 4 points where I wanted to buy. $9.30, $8,80, $8.30 and & $7.85. I got half of my intended trade off ( half of my trading account). It always looked like this trade was going to have to be held through the FOMC meetings and for sure there was going to be a head fake one way or the other. I loved the action early today when it drifted lower. Action was right. Volume was right. This thing needs a lot of rope and a wide berth. A 20% trailing stop is about the only way to play this thing for me after the big move up today IMO. Tomorrow should be interesting. Zero chickens have been counted on my part.
Mark
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
a nice strategy Mark. personally, I learned the hard way to only trade this 1-2 times a year when it's either extremely overbought or oversold, then do some v. short term options and not be greedy. Once I switched to this strategy I've done well, but its hard as heck to be patient with cash on the sidelines sometimes...
I dont follow GDX and I dont trade the leveraged etfs very well, but I will comment on the mining sector. Ive been following the XAU (Phila Gold/silver index) for 25 years and have more confidence in something in which i have more data.
In 1999/2000 I was begging my clients to buy this group but they only wanted internet stocks. And this group did underperform greatly for about a year. I liked the group for the relative valuation it presented as it was trading a decades lows. It did pretty well over the next 10 years. Now today, it is back to the 2008/9 crash level and the same price it traded at 30 years ago. Some would say this is a perennial underperformer and should be avoided at all costs. I see an opportunity to buy at 30 years ago prices. (To tie in with the discussion Baley and I are having in another thread).
The price trend is still down. The moving averages are down. Internal technicals are all weak. So this certainly is not a timely trade, but knowing time is our friend, Im comfortable initiating a long term (10yr+) position in this sector. I bought FKRCX (look it up) for my godson last fall. He has the time.
It maybe a battle to get through 12 as there is a gap that needs to be filled from $12.00 to $13.50. $12 is the current line in the sand. On GDX the gap at $19.50 to $20.00
Mark
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Besides the important gap that MJ mentions is also the $19.45-$19.65 island top/island bottom range of the past 4-5 months. GDX having a lot of trouble getting through this band. Will probably take gold poking above $1190-$1192 or silver >$17.00 to get the momentum back. But once that band is exceeded it could be a quick ride to GDX $20.00.
Seems like a lot of sellers at $10.50 NUGT, then less at $11.25. Note the declining volume on this rise. If you look at the hourly two week chart for SLV it's even more striking. Could be a bumpy ride from Tuesday to Thursday as end of month OpX and treasury auctions occur. Would include my chart but it's from market - watch which has a "bad" word in it.
It literally got right to $12.00. Now hope for a gap up into the gap tomorrow. Fingers crossed
Mark
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I agree with the gap for GDX (19.94) being a an important short term technical level, if it could run above it, NUGT could have legs, but it hasn't done it yet. I guess there will be a few of us watching
Trading these 3x ETFs are obviously risky, so to make an even riskier(stooopider) trade, I figured I would buy some call options on GDX. So I just initiated a very small position in the 4/24 19.50 strike call options and will add some on weakness.
Of course, this is just a speculation with fun money, because it takes a real rahtard to buy straight call options, thank you.
Among the other grossly underperforming ETFs are ones that attempt to triple the performance of other indices. Such as Direxion Trust’s Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares ETF (NUGT). It and its Bear 3X Shares inverse counterpart are both highly leveraged investments, each of which can head to worthless at triple speed.
No one, at least no one sane, is loading up on such derivative investments in order to plan for retirement or to build a college fund. These are long shot bets, the Wall Street equivalent of a lottery ticket or a 15-team parlay. The problem is that they’re often as much of a long shot for the issuers as they are for the speculators. A fund that returns -99.8% over any period is effectively dead, its imminent closure thus indirectly increasing the market dominance of the larger, more established general-purpose ETFs.
Wes, make sure you sell on the rip, otherwise your stack will be set back ... have you looked at the longterm chart on that? >>
Here's what the article opines about ETFs such as UVXY:
A look at the best- and worst-performing ETFs over the last three years provides a clue. If you take a look at the latter list, you will see that it is dominated by funds with dubious specializations, such as volatility index futures.
Simplifying things, a volatility index ETF doesn’t contain pieces of stocks, but rather of volatility indices. In other words, you’re loading up on numbers that represent the expected or predicted variation in the prices of an underlying commodity or commodities. Which means if you load up on a volatility index future ETF, you are at least three and likely four levels of abstraction away from investing in something tangible.
The 3X leveraged PM ETF's are not meant for long term holds or long term investing. They are meant to capture shorter term moves daily, weekly, and sometimes a few months at a time. They have inherent decay that eventually wipes them out.....same comment for stock market ETF's like FAZ, SDS, etc. UNG is not a leveraged nat gas ETF but look at its chart over the past couple of years vs. nat gas future's prices. UNG is down 97.24% since the 2008 peak while the underlying is down 79.33%. Certainly both down a ton...but UNG can't be considered an "investment" either. Plenty of decay in that...on the order of another 76% after you already lost the main 80%. During intermediate cycle rallies in gold and miners lasting 8-12 weeks, NUGT is not a bad place to be for a small portion of one's portfolio. No doubt it takes nerves of steel to pick an entry point and not get shook out along the way. At some point in the near future miners will rally like crazy much like they did from 2000-2003 when they went up >1000%. That would be a good time to own a 3X miner ETF. But before that happens, they have to beat to a bloody pulp....just like in 1998-2000.
Longest I've ever held these was 4 days (DUST), just this month .... 42% return.
Entries should be "timed" using the underlying GDX ETF using TA. It's best to trade them (DUST or NUGT) at the extremes, not trying to capture the middle.
If GDX breaks the lows of Friday @ 18.6ish, I could easily retest upper 17s which would be pushing near lows on NUGT. It could hold, but it's looking less likely to me now.
NUGT is basically retracing the wild swing on FOMC Wed from 2 weeks ago. While some miners and most currencies have retraced those moves, a number of miners haven't. So GDX and NUGT are still a ways above the original gap at GDX $17.86. May or may not retrace that whole March 18th candle.....but considering how easy the AUD/USD did it, it's looking a lot more likely. Oil may retrace back to $44 to fill that huge gap it made on March 18th. The GDX 55 day/11 week cycle still has another 7 days min in the count to bottom out. That 11+ week cycle has been money for the past 2 years.
Another important gold cycle has been the 21 month peak/trough cycle (actually 18-22 months at times) going on since 1999. End of March brings the count to 21 months since the June 2013 trough. Now either gold is ending the current trough cycle now or will linger into April....or it already ended early in November on month 17. The most logical sequence would be a month 22 ending sometime in April with a lower low/retest of March's $1142. In some ways of break of $1130 in April would probably seal the deal that a 22 month correction is over....and better things loom. April showers bring May flowers? Seasonal gold patterns tend to be good for April/early May.
Quite the wild child. Up 15% today............A years worth of trading in one day for some stocks.
Mark
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Funny, I don't seen any responses after my last post on April 6 at 3:57pm. I see where others have posted on the list view but can' see their responses within the thread. I guess this has been happening alot lately.
@ Elite CNC Routing & Woodworks on Facebook. Check out my work. Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i>at 9.30 it's starting to get interesting again. might dip a toe. >>
Sold a losing GG position and bought NUGT at $9.29. Will give it a lot of rope.
Mark >>
Bought a 30% position @ $8.78 to go with the 20% position at $9.29
Mark >>
Broke a couple of trading rules of mine along the way but this is in the books. Sold at $12.00
Mark
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Nice job holding through all that Mark. I was weak and sold early, too early, but made a little. I'm back into DUST at $14 today and plan to hold for awhile.
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Sold DUST just before close Friday. Really felt like it should have run higher, so, I am a little skeptical about next week. I'll probably take another DUST position on Wednesday as I think we still see gold down to $1140-1150. After the dust settles (haha) I'm back into physical precious metals and GDX and NUGT. Should be interested week in PMs, that's for sure!
Comments
Great head fake by the boyz early today forcing GDX under the key $17.75 support by 4c. It looked a goner. Then came right back to simmer in the $17.90 to $18.10 area prior to FOMC oracle (Nugt continually finding support the past week in the 8.80-9.10 range). HFT algo's earned their money today....and most of the past 5 days setting everyone up.
But, I see MJ saw through the ruse. Good job hanging in there!
Today's very large 2 pm gap up in spot gold does suggest price will be back to $1153 once again. It's just a matter of when. Could be 1 day, 1 week, or 6 months.
Overdate, BestMR, Weather11AM, TDEC1000, Carew4me, BigMarty58, Coinsarefun, Golfer72, UnknownComic, DMarks, JFoot13, ElKevvo, Truthteller, Duxbutt, TwoSides2aCoin, PerryHall, mhammerman, Papabear, Wingsrule, WTCG, MillerJW, Ciccio, zrlevin, dantheman984, tee135, jdimmick, gsa1fan, jmski52, SUMORADA, guitarwes, bstat1020, pitboss, meltdown, Schmitz7, 30AnvZ28, pragmaticgoat, wondercoin & MkMan123
Mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
GLTA
100% Positive BST transactions
<< <i>what are your thoughts on that Coho? >>
I dont follow GDX and I dont trade the leveraged etfs very well, but I will comment on the mining sector. Ive been following the XAU (Phila Gold/silver index) for 25 years and have more confidence in something in which i have more data.
In 1999/2000 I was begging my clients to buy this group but they only wanted internet stocks. And this group did underperform greatly for about a year. I liked the group for the relative valuation it presented as it was trading a decades lows. It did pretty well over the next 10 years. Now today, it is back to the 2008/9 crash level and the same price it traded at 30 years ago. Some would say this is a perennial underperformer and should be avoided at all costs. I see an opportunity to buy at 30 years ago prices. (To tie in with the discussion Baley and I are having in another thread).
The price trend is still down. The moving averages are down. Internal technicals are all weak. So this certainly is not a timely trade, but knowing time is our friend, Im comfortable initiating a long term (10yr+) position in this sector. I bought FKRCX (look it up) for my godson last fall. He has the time.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i>Looks like XAU in the 45 range at the end of 2015/early 2016 will be a good starting point for a long ride. >>
If XAU is 45 in 9 months then NUGT will be $1.50.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>NUGT...to 15 this week? Thoughts? >>
It maybe a battle to get through 12 as there is a gap that needs to be filled from $12.00 to $13.50. $12 is the current line in the sand. On GDX the gap at $19.50 to $20.00
Mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Seems like a lot of sellers at $10.50 NUGT, then less at $11.25. Note the declining volume on this rise. If you look at the hourly two week chart for SLV it's even more striking. Could be a bumpy ride from Tuesday to Thursday as end of month OpX and treasury auctions occur. Would include my chart but it's from market - watch which has a "bad" word in it.
http://bigcharts.market$watch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=nugt&insttype=&time=18&freq=8 (remove the $ sign and copy into your browser).
Mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I guess there will be a few of us watching
So I just initiated a very small position in the 4/24 19.50 strike call options and will add some on weakness.
Of course, this is just a speculation with fun money, because it takes a real rahtard to buy straight call options, thank you.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i>I'm stacking UVXY >>
Wes, make sure you sell on the rip, otherwise your stack will be set back
Here's what they say about NUGT
Among the other grossly underperforming ETFs are ones that attempt to triple the performance of other indices. Such as Direxion Trust’s Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares ETF (NUGT). It and its Bear 3X Shares inverse counterpart are both highly leveraged investments, each of which can head to worthless at triple speed.
No one, at least no one sane, is loading up on such derivative investments in order to plan for retirement or to build a college fund. These are long shot bets, the Wall Street equivalent of a lottery ticket or a 15-team parlay. The problem is that they’re often as much of a long shot for the issuers as they are for the speculators. A fund that returns -99.8% over any period is effectively dead, its imminent closure thus indirectly increasing the market dominance of the larger, more established general-purpose ETFs.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm stacking UVXY >>
Wes, make sure you sell on the rip, otherwise your stack will be set back
Here's what the article opines about ETFs such as UVXY:
A look at the best- and worst-performing ETFs over the last three years provides a clue. If you take a look at the latter list, you will see that it is dominated by funds with dubious specializations, such as volatility index futures.
Simplifying things, a volatility index ETF doesn’t contain pieces of stocks, but rather of volatility indices. In other words, you’re loading up on numbers that represent the expected or predicted variation in the prices of an underlying commodity or commodities. Which means if you load up on a volatility index future ETF, you are at least three and likely four levels of abstraction away from investing in something tangible.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
If NUGT is good enough for MJ............
Longest I've ever held these was 4 days (DUST), just this month .... 42% return.
Entries should be "timed" using the underlying GDX ETF using TA. It's best to trade them (DUST or NUGT) at the extremes, not trying to capture the middle.
Time will tell
edited to add: Well, it was going good until about 30 minutes ago. Back to the drawing board.......
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
It could hold, but it's looking less likely to me now.
Another important gold cycle has been the 21 month peak/trough cycle (actually 18-22 months at times) going on since 1999. End of March brings the count to 21 months since the June 2013 trough. Now either gold is ending the current trough cycle now or will linger into April....or it already ended early in November on month 17. The most logical sequence would be a month 22 ending sometime in April with a lower low/retest of March's $1142. In some ways of break of $1130 in April would probably seal the deal that a 22 month correction is over....and better things loom. April showers bring May flowers? Seasonal gold patterns tend to be good for April/early May.
Mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i>Sold my NUGT and UGLD today at the highs. Nice little few-dollar-up run the last week or so. >>
Wes, does that mean you're buying at the Oasis later?
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i>Might be time to jump back in NUGT, especially if it hits single digits again. >>
I'm going to wait a bit longer, wait for more of a sure play. Nasty metals action.
Funny, I don't seen any responses after my last post on April 6 at 3:57pm. I see where others have posted on the list view but can' see their responses within the thread. I guess this has been happening alot lately.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>at 9.30 it's starting to get interesting again. might dip a toe. >>
Sold a losing GG position and bought NUGT at $9.29. Will give it a lot of rope.
Mark >>
Bought a 30% position @ $8.78 to go with the 20% position at $9.29
Mark >>
Broke a couple of trading rules of mine along the way but this is in the books. Sold at $12.00
Mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Overdate, BestMR, Weather11AM, TDEC1000, Carew4me, BigMarty58, Coinsarefun, Golfer72, UnknownComic, DMarks, JFoot13, ElKevvo, Truthteller, Duxbutt, TwoSides2aCoin, PerryHall, mhammerman, Papabear, Wingsrule, WTCG, MillerJW, Ciccio, zrlevin, dantheman984, tee135, jdimmick, gsa1fan, jmski52, SUMORADA, guitarwes, bstat1020, pitboss, meltdown, Schmitz7, 30AnvZ28, pragmaticgoat, wondercoin & MkMan123
Mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
After the dust settles (haha) I'm back into physical precious metals and GDX and NUGT. Should be interested week in PMs, that's for sure!
Overdate, BestMR, Weather11AM, TDEC1000, Carew4me, BigMarty58, Coinsarefun, Golfer72, UnknownComic, DMarks, JFoot13, ElKevvo, Truthteller, Duxbutt, TwoSides2aCoin, PerryHall, mhammerman, Papabear, Wingsrule, WTCG, MillerJW, Ciccio, zrlevin, dantheman984, tee135, jdimmick, gsa1fan, jmski52, SUMORADA, guitarwes, bstat1020, pitboss, meltdown, Schmitz7, 30AnvZ28, pragmaticgoat, wondercoin & MkMan123
<< <i>$10.00 looks like a spot to re enter
Mark >>
Maybe on the smack down coming either Tuesday or Wednesday.
Overdate, BestMR, Weather11AM, TDEC1000, Carew4me, BigMarty58, Coinsarefun, Golfer72, UnknownComic, DMarks, JFoot13, ElKevvo, Truthteller, Duxbutt, TwoSides2aCoin, PerryHall, mhammerman, Papabear, Wingsrule, WTCG, MillerJW, Ciccio, zrlevin, dantheman984, tee135, jdimmick, gsa1fan, jmski52, SUMORADA, guitarwes, bstat1020, pitboss, meltdown, Schmitz7, 30AnvZ28, pragmaticgoat, wondercoin & MkMan123