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OK who has the huevos to step into NUGT

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    PRIZ430PRIZ430 Posts: 306 ✭✭✭
    NUGT getting crushed again today...down another 6%+ down to 7.61 currently
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    roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    GDX takes out the March low today. NUGT closes at $7.48 following 5 nasty down days in a row (-17%). Today was just brutal. What's not to love? The last decline lasted 34 days. Today was day 33. It will be interesting to see how it comes out after the July 4th holiday weekend.

    Ignoring the previous 10-1 and 5-1 reverse splits, NUGT set an all time low today. image
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
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    OPAOPA Posts: 17,104 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I'm feelin' lucky. >>




    derryb .. I hope you ignored your feelin ... No end in sight yet for the ongoing massacre.
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,217 ✭✭✭✭✭
    bought more.

    Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,624 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Roadrunner, what you make of the silver chart?
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i> what you make of the silver chart? >>



    what do you make of this?

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,624 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Safehaven.Com has a technical analysis piece relevant to this thread.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Safehaven.Com has a technical analysis piece relevant to this thread. >>



    That might be the Radomski piece. I haven't paid much attention to the guy because he's gone lock-stock-full-bear-to-the-hilt mode for the past couple of years. Not that he wasn't right much of the time. But he has been equally as wrong on the numerous rebounds of the past 1-2 years. So for the most part most of the authors on safehaven have been in one trick pony mode for 3-4 years....just like they were from 2003-2011. I do pay attention to Hoye, Shedlock, Saville, Noonan and others since their reporting tends to be a little more even-handed.

    Noonan

    Saville - inflation turnaround??

    I actually found the Saville article on 10 yr and 2 yr UST yield spreads most interesting. He's suggesting that the deflation/inflation turn began quietly in early January. It could take 1-2 years to become more obvious. The 10/2 yr ratio is something I've followed for at least the past 5 years. It's one of the half dozen or so pillars to the gold market (along with USD, AUD, JPY, CAD, etc.). A longer term trending & rising yield ratio is generally needed for rising gold prices. It just finished a one year downtrend in January. It's made 2 attempts to get past the 200 dma. A move above the 200 dma would exceed the 1 yr down trend line (tossing out the Oct spike). A move above 4.3 would be a verified break out. And this certainly has implications for PMs and the miners (GDX, NUGT, GDXJ, etc.). Even if this deflationary/inflationary turn has begun, it's not much help yet for PMs and miners.

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,624 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Text for the most part most of the authors on safehaven have been in one trick pony mode for 3-4 years....just like they were from 2003-2011.

    So they were right from 03 to 11 and also from 2011 to 2015 so you are going to dismiss their analysis?


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Text for the most part most of the authors on safehaven have been in one trick pony mode for 3-4 years....just like they were from 2003-2011.

    So they were right from 03 to 11 and also from 2011 to 2015 so you are going to dismiss their analysis? >>



    There have been both bulls and bears in each of those periods that would not change their tune.

    Looking like the majority had the picture wrong at end of last week. Lather, rinse, repeat.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
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    OPAOPA Posts: 17,104 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>bought more. >>



    Are you having a "death wish?" image
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,217 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>bought more. >>



    Are you having a "death wish?" image >>


    will buy even more when I think the bottom is in.

    Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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    OPAOPA Posts: 17,104 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>bought more. >>



    Are you having a "death wish?" image >>


    will buy even more when I think the bottom is in. >>



    Well, it's close to your silver bottom call of $15. Will it hold or drop below?
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,217 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>bought more. >>



    Are you having a "death wish?" image >>


    will buy even more when I think the bottom is in. >>



    Well, it's close to your silver bottom call of $15. Will it hold or drop below? >>


    Hedging the NUGT with DSLV. We could see $14 silver if Greece continues to hammer the euro. Suspect some good euro news will surface before the week is out.

    Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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    LochNESSLochNESS Posts: 4,829 ✭✭✭
    Somewhat OT … do you guys buy/sell NUGT and USLV on e-Trade? What is the platform for these?
    ANA LM • WBCC 429

    Amat Colligendo Focum

    Top 10FOR SALE

    image
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    guitarwesguitarwes Posts: 9,241 ✭✭✭
    Yes, any online brokerages that carries these tickers. I use Scottrade.
    @ Elite CNC Routing & Woodworks on Facebook. Check out my work.
    Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
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    JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Back in NUGT @ $7.00.........looking for some short gold covering going into the weekend with Greece mandate on Sunday.............Any pop before Friday close and I'm out

    Mark
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,217 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I use Scottrade.

    Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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    OperationButterOperationButter Posts: 1,672 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Back in NUGT @ $7.00.........looking for some short gold covering going into the weekend with Greece mandate on Sunday.............Any pop before Friday close and I'm out

    Mark >>



    Not a bad trade. GL!
    Gold is for savings. Fiat is for transactions.



    BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
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    bluelobsterbluelobster Posts: 1,220 ✭✭✭

    GDX still having a hard time getting traction. The good news, It's still 3% over it's multi year low so it has some pretty good support below, but the recent weekly movement looks like at least a retest of that low to me.

    No doubt it looks cheap here, but cheap can always get cheaper. Maybe a capitulatory sell off could create a tradable bottom?
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    roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    First step to stepping into NUGT is getting gold and silver moving. They've popped a bit since the Mon-Tuesday hit, possibly due to the COT extremes. COT positioning has been moving dramatically the past 2 weeks with the commercials as long as they been in gold since Dec 2013 and the hedge funds as short as they've been since Dec 2013. Silver is back to extremes not seen since April-July 2013.

    The hedge fund large specs are now significantly net short silver.... and flat on gold futures (111K long contracts vs. 109K short contracts).....contrast that to their end of January 2015 gold futures position of 173K long/19K short. Commercial swap dealers are flat both gold and silver. Palladium COT positions are back to summer 2012. COT positions can now support a PM rally.

    COT gold

    COT silver
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
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    BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
    No huevos for NUGT here, got 'em handed to me the last couple of times. image

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

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    rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    Testing
    keceph `anah
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    rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    1, 2, 3 ...
    keceph `anah
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    rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    Lookout................

    .
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    Belowww......
    keceph `anah
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    rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    Where are all the posts???...
    keceph `anah
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    rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭


    << <i>GDX still having a hard time getting traction. The good news, It's still 3% over it's multi year low so it has some pretty good support below, but the recent weekly movement looks like at least a retest of that low to me.

    No doubt it looks cheap here, but cheap can always get cheaper. Maybe a capitulatory sell off could create a tradable bottom? >>


    Oh ok...

    An Inconvenient Truth : The HUI:GOLD RATIO
    Posted on June 21, 2015, 11:32 pm by Fullgoldcrown
    There are no words to describe the Carnage that Precious Metals Stocks have suffered for the last 12 years. There is no consoling those who have invested in this sector , many who have literally lost their life’s savings as they watch this horror unfold in utter disbelief .

    The best way to gauge this complete evisceration of Precious Metals Investors is to follow the HUI:GOLD Ratio .

    This ratio compares the most widely followed PM Mining Index . the HUI …Numerator

    with the Price of Gold …Denominator

    This Ratio is widely followed by PM Analysts, many who have been calling for it to bottom since it entered its bear market in…get this…2003 !

    Yes 2003 !





    Rambus has documented the fall of this ratio ever since he began this website and has just tonight posted an update showing it has actually broken out of a small consolidation pattern this past week and is now BELOW where it was at the beginning of the Late Great Gold Bull Market in 2001 .

    ………………………………..

    Excerpt from Rambus Chartology Weekend Report June 21 2015.

    “Next I would like to update you on the long term HUI:GOLD ratio chart we’ve been following that shows this ratio has finally broken below major long term support, going all the way back to the 2000 low. I have literally waited several years for this ratio chart to break .13 and it finally has. The little H&S consolidation pattern that formed right on the S&R rail has been the key in looking for this ratio to break to new all time lows”



    Please take a moment to let this stunning chart sink in .

    Especially if you have been holding PM Stocks with the view that this ratio cannot possibly go any lower or if you have been bottom fishing in this god forsaken sector .

    The price of the Major PM Mining Stocks, as represented by the HUI:GOLD Ratio , is BELOW where it was when gold was trading at $250 , 15 years ago.

    And in spite of all the analysts saying this was absolutely impossible , this Incredible Ratio is breaking down yet again to new all time lows .

    The Mind Boggles .

    Fullgoldcrown (For Rambus Chartology)



    keceph `anah
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    roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    That post from Fullgoldcrown on the Rambus site is rather ironic and missing some important points. Those guys have been the most vocal gold bears on the web for the past 3 years. They've always found a way to make PM's bearish no matter what they were doing. The irony of that is that they didn't believe their own charts at times. After profiting handsomely on gold's drops from Sept 2011 - August 2013....they managed to give every cent back on frequent whipsaw PM bear trades from this past November - May (90% fail rate on leveraged trades). They were up approx 200-300% by early Nov 2014 (+$300K to +$400K) and were at -18% by mid-May 2015 (-$18K). I don't consider that to be all that impressive. They post their overall trades on the public website so you can check it out below. Currently back to +21% as of August 2012.

    They've managed to bounce back a bit the past 1-2 months on PM bear trades. But being essentially flat on trading PM's for the past 3 years (approx 450 trades) and down big the past 8 months, hardly supports all the verbage they put out. If these guys had the "charts" nailed for most of the past 3 years....how come they haven't been able to capitalize on it with their trades? Their net trades in the regular SM the past 3 years is also poor at -17%. Considering the rip-roaring bull market of the past 6 years, that's lackluster performance....especially when you're paying hundreds of dollars per year for the subscription. Tread carefully on those charts. If the owner can't successfully trade on them, what makes you think his readers can? The mind boggles.

    Portfolio net positions and current open trades

    closed Kamikaze portfolio trades going back to July 31, 2012....mostly red ink from Nov 2014 -May 2015.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
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    rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    To me, maybe I shoulda been more clearer, but I care zilch about there trades or forecasts,
    I was more interested in the fact of where we are now as compared to the $250 per oz gold, that I found fascinating ...
    keceph `anah
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    JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I exited all mining positions years ago except for one ( sold that a few months ago for an offset). There will be a time and place to re-enter.

    I've sucessfully traded NUGT several times recently. Have one position open @ $7.00 and will probably close it out on Monday. it was purely a spec Greece trade.

    Mark
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
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    roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    duplicate post..............
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
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    roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The sentiment at the Rambus site and other gold blogs is in full gold, silver, and miner shorting euphoria/giddiness. They are tripping over themselves with infallibility on how far gold and HUI are going to fall in the coming weeks. Usually when things get to this point (and backed up by 18-24 month extremes in the COT reporting) it's about time to turn back the other way. And with HUI so clearly violating the 2014 and 2008 lows (and HUI/GLD back to 2003 levels) I would suspect the algo bots have done their job. They've successfully cracked a key support line and have all the bears lined up on one side of the boat looking for <$1000 gold and HUI to 100. I wouldn't be surprised if the next move in the HUI was back to 165-210 to get above these recently broken supports (and gold back to $1200-$1225). The short trade is "so easy" now....that a whipsaw would catch the most people off guard and bust the chart patterns everyone is following.

    I could be wrong, but in watching the GSR bolt to 78.1 and the dollar to 97.2 on Tuesday in manic moves higher, I think those were ending corrective waves. So far they've given all of those gains back by Friday. If that's the case, then commodities and PMs should see positive action for a while. Gold market sentiment is at levels seen during the previous 3-4 intermediate cycle lows. It was only lower back in June/July 2013. Silver has set the table with a 7 month cycle low so far (that's long for a typical 4-6 months PM intermediate cycle). It has printed a large weekly hammer candle similar to how it ended November 2014.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
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    rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    Yes, I defer to you as having far superior knowledge in these markets...
    I think maybe a 10+ percentage gain in silver to the 50 day resistance price, still leaves price under $17 and all short, medium, and most long term phyzz holders underwater at least another year or more...
    keceph `anah
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,217 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Yes, I defer to you as having far superior knowledge in these markets...
    I think maybe a 10+ percentage gain in silver to the 50 day resistance price, still leaves price under $17 and all short, medium, and most long term phyzz holders underwater at least another year or more... >>


    I'm a long term holder and I'm not underwater. While some of what I hold is underwater most is not.

    Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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    rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    I guess it depends on how long term is defined as a good argument could be at certain time frames even though a long term hold may be up nominally but when you factor in other factors one is in reality underwater or not in as great as a position as they think...

    I may be wrong but I don't think there is a favorable long term cap gain in phyzz...
    keceph `anah
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,217 ✭✭✭✭✭
    All the newcomers are pretty much underwater.

    Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,624 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>All the newcomers are pretty much underwater. >>



    Silver was this same price more than 3300 days ago.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>All the newcomers are pretty much underwater. >>



    Silver was this same price more than 3300 days ago. >>



    Silver was also this same price 13,500 days ago.

    But I hear silver has a big future image

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

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    rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    Yes 2 great examples of many...
    keceph `anah
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    roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>All the newcomers are pretty much underwater. >>



    Silver was this same price more than 3300 days ago. >>



    In the not too distant future we'll be saying the same types of things about the majority of US stocks. I wonder if the fiat bugs will be as vocal when/if that occurs? And all the newcomers? Yeah, they'll be pretty much underwater...just like 1928-1929, 1964-1975, 1998-2000, 2006-2007, and 2014-XXXX?
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,624 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You've been preaching that for a long time now roadrunner. When do you think it's time to call it quits?
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    bluelobsterbluelobster Posts: 1,220 ✭✭✭
    Gold and GDX, just above their multi year lows <1%, could be fireworks today. Bottom or new overhead resistance?
    I think the answer will come soon.
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    ZubieZubie Posts: 1,160 ✭✭✭✭
    Does anyone else think NUGT may have just bottomed out at $6.30...finally! If you were thinking about NUGT, this might be a huge opportunity?
    Positive BST Transactions with:
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    image
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,217 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Does anyone else think NUGT may have just bottomed out at $6.30...finally! If you were thinking about NUGT, this might be a huge opportunity? >>


    miners and metals have not reached bottom. They are close enough to start buying.

    Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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    roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>You've been preaching that for a long time now roadrunner. When do you think it's time to call it quits? >>



    Lived through this same type of stuff from 2003-2007. Stocks are going to the moon and gold is headed back to $250. When did that get old to you? How many years did we have to hear that gold has had too many consecutive annual rises and "had" to correct (6? 7? 8? 9? 10? 11? 12 yrs?). Didn't get that old to you? It did to us. The shoe fits on more than one foot. History keeps on getting re-written around here by the recent winners (recency bias). It is well known that the "winners" write or rewrite history to their liking. Just trying to ensure the reporting is fair. I'll repeat it as many times as it takes to keep the stuff fresh and correct....just ask Baseball....or the guy last week who was stating how TV manufacturing had come back big time in the US.

    Like clock work Rambus and Co. got the internet troops worked up over the weekend and probably had them tripping over themselves to buy into more gold, silver, and miner PM shorts this morning....because his charts all said so. That worked well shortly into today's open until NUGT bounced right back and essentially filled the opening gap. Now what? Doesn't look like the best place to be loaded to the gills with PM shorts. Bears have the events calendar on their side the rest of the week though with Yellen before congress Wed/Thursday and an OpEx on Friday. Gold to silver ratio giving more signs that is may have finally turned after that very nice 35 day rally.

    PMs bear train moving along

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,624 ✭✭✭✭✭
    How many years did we have to hear that gold has had too many consecutive annual rises and "had" to correct (6? 7? 8? 9? 10? 11? 12 yrs?). Didn't get that old to you? It did to us

    Im so sorry you choose to hide behind the calendar and conveniently forget my warnings of an extended streak as gold dropped 34% in 2008. And on cue you prefer to exaggerate as there is no way I could ahve commented on gold as I havent even been on this forum for 12 years. Go ahead an bring up my "gold is dead" thread from 2009...interesting that gold has underperformed every asset on the planet since then, except the forum's favorite dull and bland metal.

    I never said gold was going back to 250...you may as well say the SP500 is going back to 700. Both are extremely unlikely to happen. And if you knew so much about inflation as you so often proclaim, you would understand.

    But enough of the niceties imageimage So far metals seem to be holding supports and investor sentiment feels quite terrible to me. But watch the dollar...it still has no competition.

    And to keep perspective and illustrate the obvious reasons for prices to increase, how long did it take for the DOW to hit new highs after it peaked in 1929? And how many years has it been for silver? Im not bashing silver or promoting equites--after all both have suffered 90% declines--im just trying to stimulate thought outside of what one might read in mainstream or underground media channels.






    Do you know what I know image




    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    Ahso...
    keceph `anah
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    bidaskbidask Posts: 13,866 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I might buy some nugt ....for a trade
    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




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    ZubieZubie Posts: 1,160 ✭✭✭✭
    If so, make it a quick hit it and get out. After Greece fiasco, gold may now see a low down to $1080? I'm planning on dumping my NUGT for a loss when it rallys for a 5-10% gain this week.
    Positive BST Transactions with:
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    image
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,217 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Time to cash in on the DSLV or wait a bit longer?

    Gut says wait for $70.

    Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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