<< <i>agree with derry. a good chance NUGT gets further hammered over the next 3-6 months as worse-than-expected quarterlies start coming in from the lower prices.. >>
The reason I like VXX better than NUGT is that the gold miners will suffer right along with the rest of Wall St. on the day of reckoning. When the ponzi ends with bonds TBT will be the medicine.
NUGT entire trading range has been from $2100 down to near $10 where it is now. The miners have been severely hammered obviously. I still think 1000% gain is possible. Do the math. I've had Biotech stocks go up 10x ( 1000%.) GLTA
<< <i>I guarantee NUGT shares will definitely be trading a lot higher in price the next couple of months. $60-$120 is going to be a given. >>
ahhhh, another guru planin to bite the dust... or do u mean because it will reverse split by then?... surely u jest in actual price appreciation, and more importantly im sure your actual personal risk into this bloated prediction of yours is nil...
<< <i>I guarantee NUGT shares will definitely be trading a lot higher in price the next couple of months. $60-$120 is going to be a given. >>
ahhhh, another guru planin to bite the dust... or do u mean because it will reverse split by then?... surely u jest in actual price appreciation, and more importantly im sure your actual personal risk into this bloated prediction of yours is nil... >>
Ha.. ornery much?
Just so no one thinks I'm recommending a triple leveraged ETF as an investment, to hold longer than a day or so, which is a mistake IMO. The upcoming reverse split, is the only reason I'm sure the share price will be at a higher valuation.
<< <i>NUGT entire trading range has been from $2100 down to near $10 where it is now. The miners have been severely hammered obviously. I still think 1000% gain is possible. Do the math. I've had Biotech stocks go up 10x ( 1000%.) GLTA >>
It never traded at $2100. When it was first introduced in Dec 2010 it's initial price was $37-$38. Since then it's had reverse splits of 10-1 and 5-1.
Miners have to show they can start making money and resume a growth trend to get the attention of big money. So far they are still cutting back on low quality projects and mines, and barely making money. Yamana reported a $1 BILL loss last week. That's not the way to get attention. Most of the recent quarterly reports have not been good, though Anglogold Ashanti put in a decent one yesterday. They gained 22% today. Unfortunately, they probably only make up 3-5% of GDX (or NUGT). Yamana actually increased production and revenues this time around but impairment charges and Chilean taxes being raised whacked them. Even if you aren't making money, the govt wants more of "nothing."
<< <i>We will know gold and silver are turning higher after we see the miners find support and start to turn higher. Miners will lead by 3-6 months. >>
Not always. They both bottomed together on Oct 24th 2008. Silver bottomed 2 days later.
Miners did lead gold off the bottom in 2000 by approx 3 months. Silver lagged miners by approx 1 year which can be attributed to it being pulled down into the 2000-2003 recession. When it comes to PM charts these days I'm not sure there are any more "rules" considering how much "managing" of gold prices occurs. If anything, miners and gold have consistently bottomed together during most of the phases of the current 3 year correction. They also bottomed together following the market peaks in 2006 and 2004. The 2000-2001 bottom was a 20 yr washout. The current correction while huge, is of a smaller cycle order. The 20 yr washout is way down the road in the 2020-2033 period. The mining business is also FAR tougher today than it was in 2000. Those reasons include much more geopolitical and environmental stumbling blocks than ever before, ore grades being reduced by 1/3 to 1/2, inhospitable environments up to 3 miles deep or 3 miles high, generally rising costs despite deflation, shrinking qualified labor pools, poorer growth prospects, shrinking reserves, more labor strikes, NIMBY, and actual confiscation, revocation of permits, or forced shutdown of projects by the host nations. This stuff didn't happen as often in 2000. In short, the easy fruit has been picked. Gold mining could be heading the way of the dinosaur where only the few biggest miners make any money (like a Walmart). I think miners had an easier time making money in 2001 at $300 gold ($26 oil) gold than they do today at $1170 gold ($78 oil). They might never lead gold off the bottom again by any appreciable amount. It's a new HFT world with state of the art controls.
Well, Weds was not a key reversal on the chart, because it rolled back over later in the day, but "may" have been a good day to enter. The 2 day pattern looks good, now I'm going against my better judgement, because I'm too stupid to sell this rip. I don't like stops on these leveraged ETFs because they don't really protect you over night. I'm just hoping the the Gold index was so washed out, it will limit my downside until my sanity comes back and I sell or write calls against the position.
OK, I'm out at $13.00 cost $10.04, probably will go higher now, but did not have the heuvos to hang in, maybe it was just prudent? May buy back, because the underlying index is so over sold..and it "looks" like it the GDX may be groping for a bottom as it has shown recent positive relative performance against the metal.
But overtime I've learned even the very cheap can get cheaper. Time will tell.
I bought NUGT on Nov. 5. Set and forget. Went on vacation on the 6th and just got back yesterday and was surprised at the bump when I checked my Scottrade account this afternoon.
@ Elite CNC Routing & Woodworks on Facebook. Check out my work. Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Interestingly the GDX and by extension NUGT, is showing relative strength against a down equity futures opening. This is the kind of action GDX needs to show if there is any real chance to get an intermediate bottom. Curious to see if it holds up if the market falls some here.
Friday, GDX opened weak and then reversed strongly, very strongly.
not sure if some of you are aware but these stocks (nugt/jnug) are not meant to be bought and held, you will lose your shirt doing this especially when they have daily swings of greater than 10%, the swings of 20+% will really eat you alive quickly. simply google the 3x eft decay and tons of info will pop up. these stocks are meant to be day traded or just held for several days when you think a pop in gold might happen.
<< <i>not sure if some of you are aware but these stocks (nugt/jnug) are not meant to be bought and held, you will lose your shirt doing this especially when they have daily swings of greater than 10%, the swings of 20+% will really eat you alive quickly. simply google the 3x eft decay and tons of info will pop up. these stocks are meant to be day traded or just held for several days when you think a pop in gold might happen. >>
<< <i>not sure if some of you are aware but these stocks (nugt/jnug) are not meant to be bought and held, you will lose your shirt doing this especially when they have daily swings of greater than 10%, the swings of 20+% will really eat you alive quickly. simply google the 3x eft decay and tons of info will pop up. these stocks are meant to be day traded or just held for several days when you think a pop in gold might happen. >>
I googled it but didn't understand. I read that ETFs have to be traded on a daily basis or so but cannot get the reasoning behind this. If I buy 1 share of NUGT at $15, how can a swing make my share decaying? Can someone put it in simple words for me? I am new to the stock market and would like to learn.
Btw...WELCOME!
The member formerly known as Ciccio / Posts: 1453 / Joined: Apr 2009
yes its called a daily rebalancing its very simple math but over time it adds up significantly to the point where you basically cannot overcome the decay. i saw a thread about post your biggest yearly investments and some people said uslv and nugt etc and over the course of a year thats beyond stupid (unless gold or silver went pretty much straight up) its people posting stuff they know nothing about. i follow stuff like gold/silver/nat gas/ vix (volatility index) and all of these have new instruments that allow average investors to trade from their own brokerage at a much higher leverage (200&300%) its basically legalized gambling only the cards are stacked way against you if you do not know what you are doing. i copy and pasted the following below to illustrate an example of a 5% day to day decay. when your daily swings are 10/20/30% (which we saw last year in ugaz and dgaz, the nat gas levered eft's b/c the winter was so cold and the price of natural gas skyrocketed) the decay is remarkable over a very short period of time. 1 thing to remember is the intraday swings have no bearing its only the day to day moves and rebalancing where the decay comes into effect.
"Let me show you what that means in a real life example.
The Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (NYSE:FAS) is an ETF that is supposed to give you three times the returns of the Russell 1000 financial index. But does it really?
Let’s go through a scenario if the Russell 1000 index moves up 5% today and drops 5% tomorrow and you are long the FAS.
If you bought FAS today at $30, it would gain about $4.50 (15%), which puts the end-of-day value at $34.50. At the end of today, the ETF would actually take those profits and invest them the next day, starting fresh. This is called rebalancing.
So tomorrow, you now have $34.50 invested at three times leverage, so if the Russell index then drops 5%, the FAS would drop 15% ($5.18) to $29.32, leaving you with a net loss of $0.68, even though the underlying index is actually flat in that two-day period. Oh, and don’t forget to the management fees and commission.Most leveraged ETFs get their leverage only for the day and then at the end of the day, that leverage resets, which can hurt you in the long term. This is the biggest profit siphon when investing in a leveraged ETF."
Another way to put it, if a stock goes down 17%, your 3x etf would go down 50%. The stock would have to rise 33% in order for your etf to double and get back to its starting price. If the stock only goes back up 17%, you are done 25% overall. The magnification of the 3x multiplier creates a huge disparaty when the stock goes up and down.
As others have said, resetting or contango,(higher price to roll futures) is a long term killer, but really the best way to make money on these highy leveraged ETF's consistently is sell the rips, although it's risky in the short run, but it almost always plays out out. the best example is probably the VIX related ETFs, when the VIX goes parabolic, it has always set up for a huge down side move, back to the mean, if it's a huge move, it make take a a little time before it exhausts itself, but it will go down and it will make new lows, Of course, the VIX isn't even a real index, so it has all kinds of issues.
Comments
<< <i>agree with derry. a good chance NUGT gets further hammered over the next 3-6 months as worse-than-expected quarterlies start coming in from the lower prices.. >>
VXX finished the day up 7.18%.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Waiting to pull trigger
100% Positive BST transactions
<< <i>derryb :good call on VXX. Man that is one scary looking 10 year chart. Down from $7k yikes!!. Looks like NUGT chart.
Waiting to pull trigger >>
Anything close to another 08 meltdown will send it right back up there. I'll settle for a 25% meltdown, but believe it will be at least a repeat.
The reason I like VXX better than NUGT is that the gold miners will suffer right along with the rest of Wall St. on the day of reckoning. When the ponzi ends with bonds TBT will be the medicine.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i> What do I do with my loser gold stocks? >>
Replace them with GDXJ.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
<< <i>jumped on UVXY at the opening for a day trip. FED ought to drive it up before the day is done. >>
You should have made a couple bucks by now.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i>
<< <i>jumped on UVXY at the opening for a day trip. FED ought to drive it up before the day is done. >>
You should have made a couple bucks by now.
made a wee bit
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
These will be 1000% gainers in the future IMHO
100% Positive BST transactions
<< <i>This is unbelievable. Once Gold stops falling I am going to load up BIG time on JNUG and NUGT.
These will be 1000% gainers in the future IMHO >>
Never...
<< <i>This is unbelievable. Once Gold stops falling I am going to load up BIG time on JNUG and NUGT.
These will be 1000% gainers in the future IMHO >>
LOL...I doubt 1000%.....More like an easy triple....
I still think 1000% gain is possible. Do the math. I've had Biotech stocks go up 10x ( 1000%.)
GLTA
100% Positive BST transactions
$60-$120 is going to be a given.
<< <i>NUGT entire trading range has been from $2100 down ... >>
You mean before the 1:10 split in 2013?
<< <i>I guarantee NUGT shares will definitely be trading a lot higher in price the next couple of months.
$60-$120 is going to be a given. >>
ahhhh, another guru planin to bite the dust...
or do u mean because it will reverse split by then?...
surely u jest in actual price appreciation, and more importantly im sure your actual personal risk into this bloated prediction of yours is nil...
<< <i>
<< <i>NUGT entire trading range has been from $2100 down ... >>
You mean before the 1:10 split in 2013? >>
Historical chart prices are adjusted for splits.
Wanna see a good one? chart UVXY.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
>
Successful transactions on the BST boards with rtimmer, coincoins, gerard, tincup, tjm965, MMR, mission16, dirtygoldman, AUandAG, deadmunny, thedutymon, leadoff4, Kid4HOF03, BRI2327, colebear, mcholke, rpcolettrane, rockdjrw, publius, quik, kalinefan, Allen, JackWESQ, CON40, Griffeyfan2430, blue227, Tiggs2012, ndleo, CDsNuts, ve3rules, doh, MurphDawg, tennessebanker, and gene1978.
<< <i>
<< <i>I guarantee NUGT shares will definitely be trading a lot higher in price the next couple of months.
$60-$120 is going to be a given. >>
ahhhh, another guru planin to bite the dust...
or do u mean because it will reverse split by then?...
surely u jest in actual price appreciation, and more importantly im sure your actual personal risk into this bloated prediction of yours is nil... >>
Ha.. ornery much?
Just so no one thinks I'm recommending a triple leveraged ETF as an investment, to hold longer than a day or so, which is a mistake IMO.
The upcoming reverse split, is the only reason I'm sure the share price will be at a higher valuation.
>
Successful transactions on the BST boards with rtimmer, coincoins, gerard, tincup, tjm965, MMR, mission16, dirtygoldman, AUandAG, deadmunny, thedutymon, leadoff4, Kid4HOF03, BRI2327, colebear, mcholke, rpcolettrane, rockdjrw, publius, quik, kalinefan, Allen, JackWESQ, CON40, Griffeyfan2430, blue227, Tiggs2012, ndleo, CDsNuts, ve3rules, doh, MurphDawg, tennessebanker, and gene1978.
My after hours buy limit price was $10.90 last friday. I think it got down to 10.91.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Edited to say for myself not my clients.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>NUGT entire trading range has been from $2100 down to near $10 where it is now. The miners have been severely hammered obviously.
I still think 1000% gain is possible. Do the math. I've had Biotech stocks go up 10x ( 1000%.)
GLTA >>
It never traded at $2100. When it was first introduced in Dec 2010 it's initial price was $37-$38. Since then it's had reverse splits of 10-1 and 5-1.
Miners have to show they can start making money and resume a growth trend to get the attention of big money. So far they are still cutting back on low quality projects and mines, and barely making money. Yamana reported a $1 BILL loss last week. That's not the way to get attention. Most of the recent quarterly reports have not been good, though Anglogold Ashanti put in a decent one yesterday. They gained 22% today. Unfortunately, they probably only make up 3-5% of GDX (or NUGT). Yamana actually increased production and revenues this time around but impairment charges and Chilean taxes being raised whacked them. Even if you aren't making money, the govt wants more of "nothing."
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>We will know gold and silver are turning higher after we see the miners find support and start to turn higher. Miners will lead by 3-6 months. >>
Not always. They both bottomed together on Oct 24th 2008. Silver bottomed 2 days later.
Miners did lead gold off the bottom in 2000 by approx 3 months. Silver lagged miners by approx 1 year which can be attributed to it being pulled down into the 2000-2003 recession. When it comes to PM charts these days I'm not sure there are any more "rules" considering how much "managing" of gold prices occurs. If anything, miners and gold have consistently bottomed together during most of the phases of the current 3 year correction. They also bottomed together following the market peaks in 2006 and 2004. The 2000-2001 bottom was a 20 yr washout. The current correction while huge, is of a smaller cycle order. The 20 yr washout is way down the road in the 2020-2033 period. The mining business is also FAR tougher today than it was in 2000. Those reasons include much more geopolitical and environmental stumbling blocks than ever before, ore grades being reduced by 1/3 to 1/2, inhospitable environments up to 3 miles deep or 3 miles high, generally rising costs despite deflation, shrinking qualified labor pools, poorer growth prospects, shrinking reserves, more labor strikes, NIMBY, and actual confiscation, revocation of permits, or forced shutdown of projects by the host nations. This stuff didn't happen as often in 2000. In short, the easy fruit has been picked. Gold mining could be heading the way of the dinosaur where only the few biggest miners make any money (like a Walmart). I think miners had an easier time making money in 2001 at $300 gold ($26 oil) gold than they do today at $1170 gold ($78 oil). They might never lead gold off the bottom again by any appreciable amount. It's a new HFT world with state of the art controls.
GDX in 2008
Gold 2008
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Just sold NUGT one business day later for an 11.56% net profit. >>
Good job selling quickly, it's going the other way fast.
Edited to add: GDXJ is looking better and better for a set it and forget it hold.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Well, Weds was not a key reversal on the chart, because it rolled back over later in the day, but "may" have been a good day to enter. The 2 day pattern looks good, now I'm going against my better judgement, because I'm too stupid to sell this rip. I don't like stops on these leveraged ETFs because they don't really protect you over night. I'm just hoping the the Gold index was so washed out, it will limit my downside until my sanity comes back and I sell or write calls against the position.
OK, I'm out at $13.00 cost $10.04, probably will go higher now, but did not have the heuvos to hang in, maybe it was just prudent?
May buy back, because the underlying index is so over sold..and it "looks" like it the GDX may be groping for a bottom as it has shown recent positive relative performance against the metal.
But overtime I've learned even the very cheap can get cheaper. Time will tell.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Friday, GDX opened weak and then reversed strongly, very strongly.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
<< <i>Mr Toads wild ride...huge intraday swings today, but hey, what a 20% trading range. >>
A 20% swing is chicken feed to JDST and JNUG which have been seeing 30-50% swings as of late.
<< <i>not sure if some of you are aware but these stocks (nugt/jnug) are not meant to be bought and held, you will lose your shirt doing this especially when they have daily swings of greater than 10%, the swings of 20+% will really eat you alive quickly. simply google the 3x eft decay and tons of info will pop up. these stocks are meant to be day traded or just held for several days when you think a pop in gold might happen. >>
Hey are you related to 1adam12?
<< <i>not sure if some of you are aware but these stocks (nugt/jnug) are not meant to be bought and held, you will lose your shirt doing this especially when they have daily swings of greater than 10%, the swings of 20+% will really eat you alive quickly. simply google the 3x eft decay and tons of info will pop up. these stocks are meant to be day traded or just held for several days when you think a pop in gold might happen. >>
I googled it but didn't understand.
I read that ETFs have to be traded on a daily basis or so but cannot get the reasoning behind this.
If I buy 1 share of NUGT at $15, how can a swing make my share decaying?
Can someone put it in simple words for me?
I am new to the stock market and would like to learn.
Btw...WELCOME!
"Let me show you what that means in a real life example.
The Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (NYSE:FAS) is an ETF that is supposed to give you three times the returns of the Russell 1000 financial index. But does it really?
Let’s go through a scenario if the Russell 1000 index moves up 5% today and drops 5% tomorrow and you are long the FAS.
If you bought FAS today at $30, it would gain about $4.50 (15%), which puts the end-of-day value at $34.50. At the end of today, the ETF would actually take those profits and invest them the next day, starting fresh. This is called rebalancing.
So tomorrow, you now have $34.50 invested at three times leverage, so if the Russell index then drops 5%, the FAS would drop 15% ($5.18) to $29.32, leaving you with a net loss of $0.68, even though the underlying index is actually flat in that two-day period. Oh, and don’t forget to the management fees and commission.Most leveraged ETFs get their leverage only for the day and then at the end of the day, that leverage resets, which can hurt you in the long term. This is the biggest profit siphon when investing in a leveraged ETF."
>
Successful transactions on the BST boards with rtimmer, coincoins, gerard, tincup, tjm965, MMR, mission16, dirtygoldman, AUandAG, deadmunny, thedutymon, leadoff4, Kid4HOF03, BRI2327, colebear, mcholke, rpcolettrane, rockdjrw, publius, quik, kalinefan, Allen, JackWESQ, CON40, Griffeyfan2430, blue227, Tiggs2012, ndleo, CDsNuts, ve3rules, doh, MurphDawg, tennessebanker, and gene1978.
<< <i>fwiw, i think it's looking choppy and toppy from here. I got out this AM. >>
I AGREE.....out also today....Luckily before the 12 pm drop....
<< <i>
<< <i>fwiw, i think it's looking choppy and toppy from here. I got out this AM. >>
I AGREE.....out also today....Luckily before the 12 pm drop.... >>
I'll hang a while longer.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt