If anyone thinks that NUGT cannot avoid the decay they haven't tracked the history very well. It really comes down to how often the stock trades or whipsaws. A fairly steady rise can easily result in a >3x gain vs. GDX over days and weeks. I recall one bear market reversal in the past couple of years that lasted months and NUGT returned a net 3.9X GDX. Look it up. It's there. If you also check the first 9 months of NUGT from Dec 2010 to early Sept 2011 you will find there was no net decay...over a 9 month period. I would admit that it's possible the derivatives behind these guys could have been changed as at times they do struggle to make 3X. Again, the nature of the rally or drop makes a big difference. Whipsaws and stagnant consolidations eat these up.
Just eye balling the chart I get a 1.35X increase in GDX. NUGT went up 2.32X. What was expected was 1.35 x 1.35 x 1.35 = 2.46X. Works out to be a 2.83X ETF. Not that bad. If one tries to trade the rips and dips odds are you will be thrown off and not be able to get back in as price moves away from you. In these instances you'll do far better hanging on and accepting the 2.8X than trying for a half dozen swings. I have been left behind on more multi-week NUGT moves than I care to admit....while settling for a couple of quick whipsaws earning peanuts. early June 2014 was a perfect example. I was positioned dead on for that move and got whipsawed out on the very day before it bolted higher on June 10th. I made 10% in the first week, and missed out on the next 50% as it moved away at warp speed in 3 days....no pull backs from there...locked out. Yeah, I got wave 1 right. And missed parabolic wave 3.
I recall waiting for that August 2012 dip as the pattern I was following said it was coming. I could hardly believe my eyes how deep it dropped. I jumped in near the lows and made a "huge" 15% gain that day....and immediately bailed out thinking I had won big. And if my recollection is correct, I wasn't able to get back on to ride the remaining 7-8 weeks of the rally....which resulted in an additional 100% Nugt gain. I made peanuts on 1 day when the real money was made over the next 2 months.
Darn near a flat chart for those 9 months despite all those massive swings. I have to think that this performance was not "bad" enough for the PTB to rip off J6P...and they eventually found a model with much more decay....lol. The decay in JDST and JNUG is far worse.
The decay on these 3x ETF's is akin to flirting with disaster. I use them sparingly usually as offsets.
M
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>The decay on these 3x ETF's is akin to flirting with disaster. I use them sparingly usually as offsets.
M >>
Yeah. They aren't for everyone....and maybe almost no one. Playing them in the direction of the decay is a better method. Make the decay work for you.
The DUST decay is worse than the NUGT decay. Same comment for JDST vs. JNUG. After that amazing 2013 rise in DUST from April-July, it basically lost it all and them some in the fall decline. That's insane. I don't know the exact reason for it only that I constantly observe the poorer net performance of the PM bear 3X ETF's. I wouldn't make the mistake of judging NUGT by what DUST does. Even on good rallies I've seen DUST make 2.5X the inverse of GDX. NUGT seems to net you at least 2.8X over a several weeks to a couple of months of rally.
you just gotta make sure you keep your hedges trimmed.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>The decay on these 3x ETF's is akin to flirting with disaster. I use them sparingly usually as offsets.
M >>
Yeah. They aren't for everyone....and maybe almost no one. Playing them in the direction of the decay is a better method. Make the decay work for you.
The DUST decay is worse than the NUGT decay. Same comment for JDST vs. JNUG. After that amazing 2013 rise in DUST from April-July, it basically lost it all and them some in the fall decline. That's insane. I don't know the exact reason for it only that I constantly observe the poorer net performance of the PM bear 3X ETF's. I wouldn't make the mistake of judging NUGT by what DUST does. Even on good rallies I've seen DUST make 2.5X the inverse of GDX. NUGT seems to net you at least 2.8X over a several weeks to a couple of months of rally. >>
Good grief, JNUG and JDST are prime example of how buy and hold on these things, will send you to the poor house. JNUG is is down 78% ytd, which seems almost plausible because the index is down for the year, but the 3X inverse Junior mining index JDST is down a whopping 65% ytd as well.
I have been looking to find a reasonable way to short a lot of these 3x ETF, especially the inverse mining ETFs, but it's tricky and takes a lot of margin and hard finding shares to short it, out right. Figured deep in the money puts would make the premiums more palatable. Of course, the market has figured out how much these things go down overtime and there is no low hanging fruit with the options spreads or otherwise, though you can still make money, most likely. It's just hard to stomach 50-30% premiums. On the rips, where opportunity is the best, the premiums go up even more.
<< <i>Good grief, JNUG and JDST are prime example of how buy and hold on these things, will send you to the poor house. JNUG is is down 78% ytd, which seems almost plausible because the index is down for the year, but the 3X inverse Junior mining index JDST is down a whopping 65% ytd as well.
I have been looking to find a reasonable way to short a lot of these 3x ETF, especially the inverse mining ETFs, but it's tricky and takes a lot of margin and hard finding shares to short it, out right. Figured deep in the money puts would make the premiums more palatable. Of course, the market has figured out how much these things go down overtime and there is no low hanging fruit with the options spreads or otherwise, though you can still make money, most likely. It's just hard to stomach 50-30% premiums. On the rips, where opportunity is the best, the premiums go up even more. >>
My JUNG is up 21% since purchase. Long 2X and 3X EFTs are referred to as leveraged ETFs while short 2X and 3X ETFs are referred to as inverse, leveraged ETFs. Leveraged ETFs are only good for going double or triple-down with your bet. Best to be confident in your bet and to take your profits when they appear.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>My JUNG is up 21% since purchase. Long 2X and 3X EFTs are referred to as leveraged ETFs while short 2X and 3X ETFs are referred to as inverse, leveraged ETFs. Leveraged ETFs are only good for going double or triple-down with your bet. Best to be confident in your bet and to take your profits when they appear. >>
<< <i>My JUNG is up 21% since purchase. Long 2X and 3X EFTs are referred to as leveraged ETFs while short 2X and 3X ETFs are referred to as inverse, leveraged ETFs. Leveraged ETFs are only good for going double or triple-down with your bet. Best to be confident in your bet and to take your profits when they appear. >>
Sounds like blackjack ... >>
Very much so.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Tough day for JNUG. Down 36% just today alone. After a 15 day rally into the 50 dma, a pull back was due. It pretty much came right on target as the closing price from 20 days earlier was exceeded on Wednesday. Short trading day to end the week/month so not a lot of time to rescue PMs today. Tough day for PMs to keep the rally alive when oil gets crunched into the $60's and copper falls hard to $2.84....new multi-year lows. Things hinting at a "no" for the Swiss gold referendum. Reverse split coming up for JNUG in later December.
Last night I was regretting holding USLV over the weekend, but it's now up 20% from Friday's close. Maybe last night was just a bad dream.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>These turbo charged ETFs scare the shiznit out of me. ; >>
No different than leaving the $100 table and moving over to the $200 or $300 table.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
It's a little different, I don't plop the same kinda of stack on the the Craps table. ;
In Vegas, I tell myself that money is already gone, hopefully I'll get a cute CW and and free drink at least.
12/5/..GDX bouncing around, but still holding 10%+ over the lows at this point, there probably is tax loss selling pressure before year end, how much is the question?
I have been adding to my XLE position. ****ALERT******* btw I re-entered my NUGT position today in the 9's after a long absence after my last NUGT mid year trade.
JNUG and NUGT making a nice move past 2 days + 30%..... Can it hold??? Finally jumped back in the miners earlier this week after my earlier trade this year. Going on a hunch... Miners lead the POG by 6mos- a year..... normally....... Next few days gonna test it. I have my stops set tight GLTA
Just a question…..isn't a danger of using stops that if a precipitous crash occurs your stops may not get executed until much lower due to the speed of the crash/fall? That is the price can blow right through your floor/stop and by the time the sell order gets in the price is much lower? This has happened in big market crashes if I recall correctly. Just wonderin'
Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
<< <i>JNUG and NUGT making a nice move past 2 days + 30%..... Can it hold??? Finally jumped back in the miners earlier this week after my earlier trade this year. Going on a hunch... Miners lead the POG by 6mos- a year..... normally....... Next few days gonna test it. I have my stops set tight GLTA >>
There really is no "normal" with the miners any more. The regulations, requirements, and funding these days is nothing like previous bull or bear markets. These guys are having to dig 2X as much ore to make the same gold they did 15 years ago. And in doing so they are working up to 3 miles high in the mountains or 2 miles deep underground. When the correction is over, junior miners will probably see 90% of all companies wiped out that were around in 2008-2011. If you look at the October 24th 2008 bottom (a 6-8 year cycle bottom), miners and gold bottomed on the exact same day. With all the new hoops and expenses miners have to go through today to make a profit, I'd suspect gold is the new driver. I wouldn't expect miners to bottom more than 0-3 days ahead of gold. They are tied at the hip when going up.....and when going down....there seems to be no limit on how much faster the miners can drop vs. gold. I do own miners so this is not coming from someone without skin in the game. Even the Eldorado Gold CEO came out in the past month and said there needs to be a much deeper cleansing of this market before it can finally get some traction. Doesn't mean he's right. But, that's troublesome coming from a major player like that.
<< <i>JNUG and NUGT making a nice move past 2 days + 30%..... Can it hold??? Finally jumped back in the miners earlier this week after my earlier trade this year. Going on a hunch... Miners lead the POG by 6mos- a year..... normally....... Next few days gonna test it. I have my stops set tight GLTA >>
There really is no "normal" with the miners any more. The regulations, requirements, and funding these days is nothing like previous bull or bear markets. These guys are having to dig 2X as much ore to make the same gold they did 15 years ago. And in doing so they are working up to 3 miles high in the mountains or 2 miles deep underground. When the correction is over, junior miners will probably see 90% of all companies wiped out that were around in 2008-2011. If you look at the October 24th 2008 bottom (a 6-8 year cycle bottom), miners and gold bottomed on the exact same day. With all the new hoops and expenses miners have to go through today to make a profit, I'd suspect gold is the new driver. I wouldn't expect miners to bottom more than 0-3 days ahead of gold. They are tied at the hip when going up.....and when going down....there seems to be no limit on how much faster the miners can drop vs. gold. I do own miners so this is not coming from someone without skin in the game. Even the Eldorado Gold CEO came out in the past month and said there needs to be a much deeper cleansing of this market before it can finally get some traction. Doesn't mean he's right. But, that's troublesome coming from a major player like that. >>
The good news about all of that is that Darwinism, will make sure that the GDX and GDXJ, will be populated by the strongest surviving companies, with the most leverage and best resources, when the bottom does finally come in.
Just a question…..isn't a danger of using stops that if a precipitous crash occurs your stops may not get executed until much lower due to the speed of the crash/fall? That is the price can blow right through your floor/stop and by the time the sell order gets in the price is much lower? This has happened in big market crashes if I recall correctly. Just wonderin' >>
Yes, about like trying to put a bandaid on an severed artery. You do what you can to try to get the bleeding to stop. Eventually with enough pressure it will stop but by then you've lost a good bit of blood but at least you haven't bled out completely.
@ Elite CNC Routing & Woodworks on Facebook. Check out my work. Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Anybody still trading NUGT? I bought at 19.50, rode it down to 10 and change and finally sold it yesterday at 20.50! This is not a trade for the faint of heart.
Congrats! I too re-entered my trade in NUGT at the end of year in the $9's after a long absence after my mid year trade in 2014 which started this thread. Sold half of my $9 trade in the $20's this week. 3X leverage plays are risky. Do your research. GLTA
<< <i>Congrats! I too re-entered my trade in NUGT at the end of year in the $9's after a long absence after my mid year trade in 2014 which started this thread. Sold half of my $9 trade in the $20's this week. 3X leverage plays are risky. Do your research. GLTA >>
Always nice playing with the houses money. Hard to lose that way!
Yes, I probably did not belong in this trade. I was lucky to get my money back. But, if you like the volatility and can afford the trade lots of action here.
Still holding my JNUG. It's made a good run after the reverse split but not quite enough to get back to my entry point before the split. Waiting......waiting....waiting.......hoping.....hoping....hoping.....
@ Elite CNC Routing & Woodworks on Facebook. Check out my work. Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i>back to $13, very little decay vs the GDX over the last 3 months. >>
5% decay over the current 6 week decline. Not too bad actually. It's the 2-3 month whipsaw declines that really kill it. When NUGT first came out in late 2010, it experienced no decay for its first 9 months. Someone must not have liked that and worked some better decay into the derivatives. During the strongest bounce in NUGT in the 2011-2013 period lasting > 1 month, it actually experienced a 3.9X return vs GDX (30% anti-decay). But, I think they tweaked the derivatives again after that to ensure it never happens again.....lol. These days about the best you can do are 3.0X GDX....and darn lucky if you can get that as 2.7 to 2.9X seems about the best these days.
I too have been looking again after my exit at $20. I rally like the $10 to $20 trade but might not get that low again IMHO. I could be a buyer right around here again too. GLTA! Risk money only friends.
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
A real kick in the NUgGeTs today. Sub $11...............Mark
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Finger on the trigger yet again . I might pull here in the $10's on Monday. With 200 Trillion $ in total US liabilities. This ETF will soar "someday" IMHO
That said, I sure don't do everything like granddad did, and might take a flyer with you guys monday morning for a rare quick trade. Damn those got crushed yesterday didn't they?
Probably best to analyse the GDX, because it's more vanilla, when looking to find an entry point in NUGT. It's at some(weak) support now, if it breaks down further then maybe 18-18.10, low 9s for NUGT. If that breaks it could portend a R/S in NUGT in short order. One thing for sure, the trend is DOWN. I've tried to catch falling knives before, but I'm not sure I have enough band-aids for this trade yet..
Similar effects on last month's BLS non-farm payroll report (Feb 6th) as Friday's. Feb's led to a large decline. The volume this time puts Feb 6th to shame. Of all the precious metal ETF's NUGT seems to have put in the most impressive volume spike. Monday will be a Fib day 55 since the December lows, wonder if that will have an effect? The past 7 weeks has a number of similarities to the October-early November crash. Both start with a consolidation triangle that breaks down and bounces back to retest the lowest portion of the triangle. Then all heck breaks loose for 6 days. 5 days so far into Friday's decline. The lower price channel support was obliterated.
Blue lobster is correct about analyzing NUGT. Always analyze GDX first because the inherent decay in NUGT will skew it. While NUGT could be below a key support point (due to derivative's decay), GDX might be above the same point or right on it. Next major support points for GDX are the 17.75-18.00 gap area....and a weakish one at 18.25 or so. The March calendar sets up pretty lousy for PMs. There is never more than 1-2 days between "events" where the boyz like to hammer gold (FOMC meeting, OpEx's, Treasury auctions, NFP, etc.). February was set up much the same way. The 18-22 month gold peak/trough cycle that has been in play since 1999 is now in month 21 since the last trough(June 2013 at $1180 gold). Odds now seem to favor ending March in another trough (the series so far has had 7 consecutive peaks, and 1 trough).
Comments
This 9 week rally in 2012 was pretty steady
Just eye balling the chart I get a 1.35X increase in GDX. NUGT went up 2.32X. What was expected was 1.35 x 1.35 x 1.35 = 2.46X. Works out to be a 2.83X ETF. Not that bad. If one tries to trade the rips and dips odds are you will be thrown off and not be able to get back in as price moves away from you. In these instances you'll do far better hanging on and accepting the 2.8X than trying for a half dozen swings. I have been left behind on more multi-week NUGT moves than I care to admit....while settling for a couple of quick whipsaws earning peanuts. early June 2014 was a perfect example. I was positioned dead on for that move and got whipsawed out on the very day before it bolted higher on June 10th. I made 10% in the first week, and missed out on the next 50% as it moved away at warp speed in 3 days....no pull backs from there...locked out. Yeah, I got wave 1 right. And missed parabolic wave 3.
First day in August 2012 Nugt dip and rip
June 2014 rally
I recall waiting for that August 2012 dip as the pattern I was following said it was coming. I could hardly believe my eyes how deep it dropped. I jumped in near the lows and made a "huge" 15% gain that day....and immediately bailed out thinking I had won big. And if my recollection is correct, I wasn't able to get back on to ride the remaining 7-8 weeks of the rally....which resulted in an additional 100% Nugt gain. I made peanuts on 1 day when the real money was made over the next 2 months.
NUGT to GDX ratio chart from Dec 2010 to Sept 2011
Darn near a flat chart for those 9 months despite all those massive swings. I have to think that this performance was not "bad" enough for the PTB to rip off J6P...and they eventually found a model with much more decay....lol. The decay in JDST and JNUG is far worse.
M
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>The decay on these 3x ETF's is akin to flirting with disaster. I use them sparingly usually as offsets.
M >>
Yeah. They aren't for everyone....and maybe almost no one. Playing them in the direction of the decay is a better method. Make the decay work for you.
The DUST decay is worse than the NUGT decay. Same comment for JDST vs. JNUG. After that amazing 2013 rise in DUST from April-July, it basically lost it all and them some in the fall decline. That's insane. I don't know the exact reason for it only that I constantly observe the poorer net performance of the PM bear 3X ETF's. I wouldn't make the mistake of judging NUGT by what DUST does. Even on good rallies I've seen DUST make 2.5X the inverse of GDX. NUGT seems to net you at least 2.8X over a several weeks to a couple of months of rally.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>you just gotta make sure you keep your hedges trimmed. >>
They sat that makes the house look bigger. Lol
I trade a lot...and don't really care much for the leveraged etfs.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>The decay on these 3x ETF's is akin to flirting with disaster. I use them sparingly usually as offsets.
M >>
Yeah. They aren't for everyone....and maybe almost no one. Playing them in the direction of the decay is a better method. Make the decay work for you.
The DUST decay is worse than the NUGT decay. Same comment for JDST vs. JNUG. After that amazing 2013 rise in DUST from April-July, it basically lost it all and them some in the fall decline. That's insane. I don't know the exact reason for it only that I constantly observe the poorer net performance of the PM bear 3X ETF's. I wouldn't make the mistake of judging NUGT by what DUST does. Even on good rallies I've seen DUST make 2.5X the inverse of GDX. NUGT seems to net you at least 2.8X over a several weeks to a couple of months of rally. >>
Good grief, JNUG and JDST are prime example of how buy and hold on these things, will send you to the poor house. JNUG is is down 78% ytd, which seems almost plausible because the index is down for the year, but the 3X inverse Junior mining index JDST is down a whopping 65% ytd as well.
I have been looking to find a reasonable way to short a lot of these 3x ETF, especially the inverse mining ETFs, but it's tricky and takes a lot of margin and hard finding shares to short it, out right. Figured deep in the money puts would make the premiums more palatable. Of course, the market has figured out how much these things go down overtime and there is no low hanging fruit with the options spreads or otherwise, though you can still make money, most likely. It's just hard to stomach 50-30% premiums. On the rips, where opportunity is the best, the premiums go up even more.
<< <i>Good grief, JNUG and JDST are prime example of how buy and hold on these things, will send you to the poor house. JNUG is is down 78% ytd, which seems almost plausible because the index is down for the year, but the 3X inverse Junior mining index JDST is down a whopping 65% ytd as well.
I have been looking to find a reasonable way to short a lot of these 3x ETF, especially the inverse mining ETFs, but it's tricky and takes a lot of margin and hard finding shares to short it, out right. Figured deep in the money puts would make the premiums more palatable. Of course, the market has figured out how much these things go down overtime and there is no low hanging fruit with the options spreads or otherwise, though you can still make money, most likely. It's just hard to stomach 50-30% premiums. On the rips, where opportunity is the best, the premiums go up even more. >>
My JUNG is up 21% since purchase. Long 2X and 3X EFTs are referred to as leveraged ETFs while short 2X and 3X ETFs are referred to as inverse, leveraged ETFs. Leveraged ETFs are only good for going double or triple-down with your bet. Best to be confident in your bet and to take your profits when they appear.
Good site to discover and research your ETF choices
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
<< <i>My JUNG is up 21% since purchase. Long 2X and 3X EFTs are referred to as leveraged ETFs while short 2X and 3X ETFs are referred to as inverse, leveraged ETFs. Leveraged ETFs are only good for going double or triple-down with your bet. Best to be confident in your bet and to take your profits when they appear. >>
Sounds like blackjack ...
<< <i>
<< <i>My JUNG is up 21% since purchase. Long 2X and 3X EFTs are referred to as leveraged ETFs while short 2X and 3X ETFs are referred to as inverse, leveraged ETFs. Leveraged ETFs are only good for going double or triple-down with your bet. Best to be confident in your bet and to take your profits when they appear. >>
Sounds like blackjack ... >>
Very much so.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Win or lose I'll put my time and price on it, gives the thread a little more substance.
I'm into some JNUG for an unrealized loss right now. I'm letting it ride. What the heck.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i>That was quick. More brains than guts huh?
I'm into some JNUG for an unrealized loss right now. I'm letting it ride. What the heck. >>
Ha ha.. not sure about brains, should have sold at 14.20
Definitely right about guts or lack there of. These turbo charged ETFs scare the shiznit out of me. ;
<< <i>These turbo charged ETFs scare the shiznit out of me. ; >>
No different than leaving the $100 table and moving over to the $200 or $300 table.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
In Vegas, I tell myself that money is already gone, hopefully I'll get a cute CW and and free drink at least.
12/5/..GDX bouncing around, but still holding 10%+ over the lows at this point, there probably is tax loss selling pressure before year end, how much is the question?
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Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Seriously, the GDX opened higher with gold and now reversed hard. The low for GDX is 16.45, really needs to hold that level.
****ALERT*******
btw I re-entered my NUGT position today in the 9's after a long absence after my last NUGT mid year trade.
100% Positive BST transactions
Finally jumped back in the miners earlier this week after my earlier trade this year. Going on a hunch... Miners lead the POG by 6mos- a year..... normally.......
Next few days gonna test it.
I have my stops set tight
GLTA
100% Positive BST transactions
Just a question…..isn't a danger of using stops that if a precipitous crash occurs your stops may not get executed until much lower due to the speed of the crash/fall?
That is the price can blow right through your floor/stop and by the time the sell order gets in the price is much lower?
This has happened in big market crashes if I recall correctly.
Just wonderin'
<< <i>JNUG and NUGT making a nice move past 2 days + 30%..... Can it hold???
Finally jumped back in the miners earlier this week after my earlier trade this year. Going on a hunch... Miners lead the POG by 6mos- a year..... normally.......
Next few days gonna test it.
I have my stops set tight
GLTA
There really is no "normal" with the miners any more. The regulations, requirements, and funding these days is nothing like previous bull or bear markets. These guys are having to dig 2X as much ore to make the same gold they did 15 years ago. And in doing so they are working up to 3 miles high in the mountains or 2 miles deep underground. When the correction is over, junior miners will probably see 90% of all companies wiped out that were around in 2008-2011. If you look at the October 24th 2008 bottom (a 6-8 year cycle bottom), miners and gold bottomed on the exact same day. With all the new hoops and expenses miners have to go through today to make a profit, I'd suspect gold is the new driver. I wouldn't expect miners to bottom more than 0-3 days ahead of gold. They are tied at the hip when going up.....and when going down....there seems to be no limit on how much faster the miners can drop vs. gold. I do own miners so this is not coming from someone without skin in the game. Even the Eldorado Gold CEO came out in the past month and said there needs to be a much deeper cleansing of this market before it can finally get some traction. Doesn't mean he's right. But, that's troublesome coming from a major player like that.
<< <i>
<< <i>JNUG and NUGT making a nice move past 2 days + 30%..... Can it hold???
Finally jumped back in the miners earlier this week after my earlier trade this year. Going on a hunch... Miners lead the POG by 6mos- a year..... normally.......
Next few days gonna test it.
I have my stops set tight
GLTA
There really is no "normal" with the miners any more. The regulations, requirements, and funding these days is nothing like previous bull or bear markets. These guys are having to dig 2X as much ore to make the same gold they did 15 years ago. And in doing so they are working up to 3 miles high in the mountains or 2 miles deep underground. When the correction is over, junior miners will probably see 90% of all companies wiped out that were around in 2008-2011. If you look at the October 24th 2008 bottom (a 6-8 year cycle bottom), miners and gold bottomed on the exact same day. With all the new hoops and expenses miners have to go through today to make a profit, I'd suspect gold is the new driver. I wouldn't expect miners to bottom more than 0-3 days ahead of gold. They are tied at the hip when going up.....and when going down....there seems to be no limit on how much faster the miners can drop vs. gold. I do own miners so this is not coming from someone without skin in the game. Even the Eldorado Gold CEO came out in the past month and said there needs to be a much deeper cleansing of this market before it can finally get some traction. Doesn't mean he's right. But, that's troublesome coming from a major player like that. >>
The good news about all of that is that Darwinism, will make sure that the GDX and GDXJ, will be populated by the strongest surviving companies, with the most leverage and best resources, when the bottom does finally come in.
<< <i>I have my stops set tight"
Just a question…..isn't a danger of using stops that if a precipitous crash occurs your stops may not get executed until much lower due to the speed of the crash/fall?
That is the price can blow right through your floor/stop and by the time the sell order gets in the price is much lower?
This has happened in big market crashes if I recall correctly.
Just wonderin' >>
Yes, about like trying to put a bandaid on an severed artery. You do what you can to try to get the bleeding to stop. Eventually with enough pressure it will stop but by then you've lost a good bit of blood but at least you haven't bled out completely.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
100% Positive BST transactions
<< <i>Congrats! I too re-entered my trade in NUGT at the end of year in the $9's after a long absence after my mid year trade in 2014 which started this thread. Sold half of my $9 trade in the $20's this week. 3X leverage plays are risky. Do your research. GLTA
Always nice playing with the houses money. Hard to lose that way!
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Overdate, BestMR, Weather11AM, TDEC1000, Carew4me, BigMarty58, Coinsarefun, Golfer72, UnknownComic, DMarks, JFoot13, ElKevvo, Truthteller, Duxbutt, TwoSides2aCoin, PerryHall, mhammerman, Papabear, Wingsrule, WTCG, MillerJW, Ciccio, zrlevin, dantheman984, tee135, jdimmick, gsa1fan, jmski52, SUMORADA, guitarwes, bstat1020, pitboss, meltdown, Schmitz7, 30AnvZ28, pragmaticgoat, wondercoin & MkMan123
<< <i>back to $13, very little decay vs the GDX over the last 3 months. >>
5% decay over the current 6 week decline. Not too bad actually. It's the 2-3 month whipsaw declines that really kill it. When NUGT first came out in late 2010, it experienced no decay for its first 9 months. Someone must not have liked that and worked some better decay into the derivatives. During the strongest bounce in NUGT in the 2011-2013 period lasting > 1 month, it actually experienced a 3.9X return vs GDX (30% anti-decay). But, I think they tweaked the derivatives again after that to ensure it never happens again.....lol. These days about the best you can do are 3.0X GDX....and darn lucky if you can get that as 2.7 to 2.9X seems about the best these days.
I could be a buyer right around here again too. GLTA! Risk money only friends.
100% Positive BST transactions
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
With 200 Trillion $ in total US liabilities. This ETF will soar "someday" IMHO
100% Positive BST transactions
Just like all of the other leveraged ETFs
Overdate, BestMR, Weather11AM, TDEC1000, Carew4me, BigMarty58, Coinsarefun, Golfer72, UnknownComic, DMarks, JFoot13, ElKevvo, Truthteller, Duxbutt, TwoSides2aCoin, PerryHall, mhammerman, Papabear, Wingsrule, WTCG, MillerJW, Ciccio, zrlevin, dantheman984, tee135, jdimmick, gsa1fan, jmski52, SUMORADA, guitarwes, bstat1020, pitboss, meltdown, Schmitz7, 30AnvZ28, pragmaticgoat, wondercoin & MkMan123
Two year chart
That said, I sure don't do everything like granddad did, and might take a flyer with you guys monday morning for a rare quick trade. Damn those got crushed yesterday didn't they?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Similar effects on last month's BLS non-farm payroll report (Feb 6th) as Friday's. Feb's led to a large decline. The volume this time puts Feb 6th to shame. Of all the precious metal ETF's NUGT seems to have put in the most impressive volume spike. Monday will be a Fib day 55 since the December lows, wonder if that will have an effect? The past 7 weeks has a number of similarities to the October-early November crash. Both start with a consolidation triangle that breaks down and bounces back to retest the lowest portion of the triangle. Then all heck breaks loose for 6 days. 5 days so far into Friday's decline. The lower price channel support was obliterated.
Blue lobster is correct about analyzing NUGT. Always analyze GDX first because the inherent decay in NUGT will skew it. While NUGT could be below a key support point (due to derivative's decay), GDX might be above the same point or right on it. Next major support points for GDX are the 17.75-18.00 gap area....and a weakish one at 18.25 or so. The March calendar sets up pretty lousy for PMs. There is never more than 1-2 days between "events" where the boyz like to hammer gold (FOMC meeting, OpEx's, Treasury auctions, NFP, etc.). February was set up much the same way. The 18-22 month gold peak/trough cycle that has been in play since 1999 is now in month 21 since the last trough(June 2013 at $1180 gold). Odds now seem to favor ending March in another trough (the series so far has had 7 consecutive peaks, and 1 trough).