Unopened Prices
baz518
Posts: 1,253 ✭✭✭✭
Still can't get over how quickly prices have elevated. Not complaining, but just seeing $125 on 76 wax packs... and even $55-85 on the 79, 78, and 77s... just shocks my eyes at first. How long will they last?
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<< <i>How long will they last? >>
'bout 10 minutes or so.
<< <i>
<< <i>How long will they last? >>
'bout 10 minutes or so. >>
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
<< <i>Of course, that was only a few months ago, LOL. >>
I hear ya... back in January: $57 for 77 BB wax; $40 for 78 BB wax; $30 for 79 BB wax. Now $85, $65 and $55. Almost a 100% increase on the 79. Wow!
PSA HOF Baseball Postwar Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 80.51% Complete)
PSA Pro Football HOF Rookie Players Set Registry- (Currently 19.80% Complete)
PSA Basketball HOF Players Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 6.02% Complete)
PSA HOF Baseball Postwar Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 80.51% Complete)
PSA Pro Football HOF Rookie Players Set Registry- (Currently 19.80% Complete)
PSA Basketball HOF Players Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 6.02% Complete)
As much as I like unopened, I dont think there is much upside room at these prices for a while or so.
Lets see how long the packs stay on the BBCE Website at these prices. Might be a while.
Not saying they will fall as I think there is still solid demand and limited supply, but I think the price points here, which are most likely justified, are getting quite high.
Wouldnt mind if prices softened so I could buy more, but I think we may be at a plateau for a while.
<< <i>$95 for 1980 racks? You gotta be kidding.... >>
I thought the same thing. I was able to get those for under $30 each less than a year ago. And I thought prices were crazy then.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
It does seem like BBCE turnover is slowing down compared to the recent past with select 80's stuff at least. For example, they've had 1982 - 1985 Topps baseball wax boxes available for some time at the current asking price, and it took a while to sell out on the 1981. In football, after a long absence, the 1986 Topps have sat a while now (that said, he had a large quantity of these).
This obviously doesn't hold true for everything. The 1980 Topps baseball wax box was gone within minutes and its football brethren wasn't far behind. Any 70's boxes don't sit for long either.
But the fact most of the 1980's stuff sits for longer than in the recent past would suggest the asking price is not only close to market value (flippers can't make a profit), but the collective market sentiment is less bullish on future price growth. Or, maybe, we're all just broke.
I, like you, wouldn't mind having the prices stagnate for a while either so I could finish up my runs.
Snorto~
<< <i>I really want something to rip but even I had to blush at those prices...rip potential/cost ratio getting way out of hand! >>
I have always been an advocate to rip on occasion, common packs from mid to late 70s, but no more..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I missed it - how much was the 86 Fleer BK with Jordan Sticker? >>
$700 I think. It went so fast they forgot the "sold" sign
<< <i>
<< <i>I missed it - how much was the 86 Fleer BK with Jordan Sticker? >>
$700 I think. It went so fast they forgot the "sold" sign >>
Was this a raw pack or graded?
Thanks,
David (LD_Ferg)
1985 Topps Football (starting in psa 8) - #9 - started 05/21/06
Shane
<< <i>Raw, but it was $800. >>
Thanks for that. It was gone so fast i missed everything
-CDs Nuts, 1/20/14
*1956 Topps baseball- 97.4% complete, 7.24 GPA
*Clemente basic set: 85.0% complete, 7.89 GPA
<< <i>Oh to run a business based on "supply and demand" based on my own release of said supply. What I wouldn't give. >>
So you want to run a diamond cartel?
I personally think people are just more willing to pay a premium for a full, wrapped box. Which in turn starts to raise the prices on packs... all while the underlying cards haven't made the same move up. But when stuff flies off the shelves, there's no reason not to raise prices.
<< <i>I know, I know... no reason to be negative about value in the hobby. But seriously, because I love this hobby, I have to say, the fact that these prices are being created by ONE company (BBCE) makes the whole thing very sketchy to me. This isn't a supply and demand issue, it's a "How much do they CLAIM to have and how much are they asking" issue. BBCE can double prices on EVERY SINGLE ITEM THEY HAVE TOMORROW and what difference would it make? They are driving prices by telling us what they want. That's not how it is supposed to work. That's has nothing to do with supply and demand. Just throwing it out there becasue I feel that many people can and will be burned by overpaying for things that aren't nearly as hard to find as the prices indicate. People can and will buy what they want and that's fine, but there is nothing wrong with wondering these things. Oh to run a business based on "supply and demand" based on my own release of said supply. What I wouldn't give. >>
The notion that BBCE has the ability to impact the market pricing has some merit; however, it would surprise me if they are hoarding a substantial amount of product to create a perceived shortage. That would require a substantial amount of capital to have tied up in inventory that you are not moving. Unlike Fritsch, who has been sitting on the same product for ages, the cost for BBCE to get into product has gone up, so they would have a much more difficult time employing the buy and hold model. After payroll, rent, and other overhead costs, they would have to have a pretty large bankroll to corner the supply. Just my opinion.
James
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
This is the only way I think they can actually impact the overall prices. BBCE is so much more trusted than anywhere else for enough people that many of us are ready to pay way over current value on BBCE authenticated boxes. I have done so on from a sealed case wax boxes and I'm happy to have them. So then everything flys off their shelf. Then people put up ebay auctions with their own stuff at similar prices and the BBCE purchases are being used as a barometer by the many many people that don't know bbce or just don't care. So now those prices get higher. Then BBCE appropriately reacts to the market and raises prices (buy and sell) and we are back at step 1 where people are ready to pay over e-bay prices for the bbce wrapping. Now repeat every month.
I might be nuts, but that's what I think continues to happen. Add in the investment aspect that has gained so much steam and here we are. Packs that are not really rare, that have cards worth $2 on average are being hoarded by people that don't have much interest in the collectible. Part of me wants to sell everything and just buy it back in 2 years for half the price. Then there is a smaller part of me that knows I might be wrong. So if I sell, I'll never get it back, plus I'll be the guy that sold way too early. If I keep it, then I have what I wanted to begin with even if it drops in value. Maybe Mike can set up some function or something so we can see where the bubble pops. Mike, please PM me the exact date it will all tumble when you get a chance. Thanks -Darren
<< <i>Im calling the intermediate "TOP" in late 1970s early 1980s pack prices at $125 per 1976, $85 per 1977 and $65 per 1978 and $55 per 1979 per BBCE website.
As much as I like unopened, I dont think there is much upside room at these prices for a while or so.
>>
I will take the other side of the coin on this and say that in a year prices will be at least 20% higher on those 4 packs you list. Anyway this is easily measured so let's check back on this post with BBCE in a year and see what happens.
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
Any of you who know Steve and have dealt with him for a while know that he has a history of putting a reasonable mark-up
over his actual purchase price (what he actually paid for an item, not what he posts as buy prices on his site) and puts the
items up for sale. Usually, most of these items are snapped-up within hours (sometimes just MINUTES).
The current driver of prices is NOT BBCE. It's simply a problem of SUPPLY. There just isn't enough vintage unopened material
coming available on the market to satisfy the demand. It's been that way for just about 24 months now. And exacerbating it
are solid group of deep-pocketed unopened collectors who also see the dwindling supply and have been willing to move the market
upward.
About a year ago (twelve months into the vintage unopened "drought") I actually was at Steve's office and had a pretty long conversation
with him about this. My opinion was that the supply had dwindled enough that, in my opinion, I did not see how BBCE was going to be able
to be able to keep making it on the number of pieces it was able to sell. And at the rate items were flying off his website (as fast as they
were posted) I told him that I thought he was underpricing things.
Steve explained to me that he felt very strongly that he did not want to do business in any way that people would feel he was "gouging", or
otherwise single-handedly driving the market. He also said that he did not disagree with many of my thoughts, but that he had already been
preparing for that eventuality by diversifying into other segments of the hobby (for example, BBCE getting into autographs seriously a few years
ago).
Just look at all of the Fritsch unopened product that has been sold via Collect Auctions over the past few years. Those boxes have ZERO to do with
BBCE, and yet thr prices realized have been on a steep increase. Look at the REA spring auction in 2013. Again, record high unopened prices realized
and no sign of BBCE involvement. And then there were the pristine 1976 wax boxes offered by Huggins & Scott last year. Those boxes sold in the
neighborhood of $3k per box!
This is a basic problem of supply and demand. Unless a big cache of unopened is suddenly discovered unexpectedly we are going to have to accept
that supply is limited. In that environment, as long as the demand is strong prices are going to continue rising.
Dave
<< <i>I know, I know... no reason to be negative about value in the hobby. But seriously, because I love this hobby, I have to say, the fact that these prices are being created by ONE company (BBCE) makes the whole thing very sketchy to me. This isn't a supply and demand issue, it's a "How much do they CLAIM to have and how much are they asking" issue. BBCE can double prices on EVERY SINGLE ITEM THEY HAVE TOMORROW and what difference would it make? They are driving prices by telling us what they want. That's not how it is supposed to work. That's has nothing to do with supply and demand. Just throwing it out there becasue I feel that many people can and will be burned by overpaying for things that aren't nearly as hard to find as the prices indicate. People can and will buy what they want and that's fine, but there is nothing wrong with wondering these things. Oh to run a business based on "supply and demand" based on my own release of said supply. What I wouldn't give. >>
You're joking right…or you are serious and that only shows how little you've been keeping up with the unopened market. BBCE is actually lagging behind in their pricing - to say they are creating the pricing is laughable. BBCE wrapped products ALWAY sell for more on eBay than BBCE is asking for on their website. Even NON BBCE wax often sells on eBay for more that BBCE sells it for. Steve is definitely not setting the price for unopened…i think he is actually leaving dollars on the table. Look at the ending price of the wax being sold at the AH's…record setting prices having nothing to do with Steve. I have no idea how much product he has, or whether or not he is slowly "bleeding" what he does have in to the market, but I believe he is just along for the ride as it pertains to the skyrocketing prices.
<< <i>
<< <i>I know, I know... no reason to be negative about value in the hobby. But seriously, because I love this hobby, I have to say, the fact that these prices are being created by ONE company (BBCE) makes the whole thing very sketchy to me. This isn't a supply and demand issue, it's a "How much do they CLAIM to have and how much are they asking" issue. BBCE can double prices on EVERY SINGLE ITEM THEY HAVE TOMORROW and what difference would it make? They are driving prices by telling us what they want. That's not how it is supposed to work. That's has nothing to do with supply and demand. Just throwing it out there becasue I feel that many people can and will be burned by overpaying for things that aren't nearly as hard to find as the prices indicate. People can and will buy what they want and that's fine, but there is nothing wrong with wondering these things. Oh to run a business based on "supply and demand" based on my own release of said supply. What I wouldn't give. >>
You're joking right…or you are serious and that only shows how little you've been keeping up with the unopened market. BBCE is actually lagging behind in their pricing - to say they are creating the pricing is laughable. BBCE wrapped products ALWAY sell for more on eBay than BBCE is asking for on their website. Even NON BBCE wax often sells on eBay for more that BBCE sells it for. Steve is definitely not setting the price for unopened…i think he is actually leaving dollars on the table. Look at the ending price of the wax being sold at the AH's…record setting prices having nothing to do with Steve. I have no idea how much product he has, or whether or not he is slowly "bleeding" what he does have in to the market, but I believe he is just along for the ride as it pertains to the skyrocketing prices. >>
Last summer at National BBCE had very strong inventory of vintage football, basketball and hockey unopened. However, other than 1975 Mini wax they had very little in the way of any baseball product. Look at the number of 1970s items that have been listed on the BBCE website. Two years ago they typically had nearly100 items at any given time. A year ago it was in the 50s. Now it's in the 30s. To suggest that Steve is holding back product is laughable. He is having just as hard a time finding it as everyone else.
As to the "BBCE-premium", that is now a fact. However, to know that the item you have purchased has been examined by the foremost expert on the subject and passed his scrutiny is well worth the extra dollars when you are buying items of significant value.
Dave
"Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." Dr. Seuss
i guess some of these packs have appreciated since the group rips?
i still have that 1983 Cello from a sealed case as well. can't remember what they cost at the time? 60?
WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
<< <i>AWESOME!
i guess some of these packs have appreciated since the group rips?
i still have that 1983 Cello from a sealed case as well. can't remember what they cost at the time? 60? >>
Thats kind of what my box looks like. Im trying to get 1 of every pack, each year and make from the 80s. I started into the 70s and i was able to pick some up the last few months, but prices are crazy right now. Glad I got my 75 reg, 75 mini, 76, 77, 78, and 79 wax packs before these prices. I also snagged a 75 mini cello, 77 cello, and 79 cello. I thought it was bad when I bought mine not too long ago.
PSA HOF Baseball Postwar Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 80.51% Complete)
PSA Pro Football HOF Rookie Players Set Registry- (Currently 19.80% Complete)
PSA Basketball HOF Players Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 6.02% Complete)
<< <i>AWESOME!
i guess some of these packs have appreciated since the group rips?
i still have that 1983 Cello from a sealed case as well. can't remember what they cost at the time? 60? >>
Wait a minute, Eric...aren't you supposed to be the guy coming right over with penny sleeves and CSIs to start ripping??!! LOL!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>AWESOME!
i guess some of these packs have appreciated since the group rips?
i still have that 1983 Cello from a sealed case as well. can't remember what they cost at the time? 60? >>
Wait a minute, Eric...aren't you supposed to be the guy coming right over with penny sleeves and CSIs to start ripping??!! LOL! >>
Well done Eric! There are many around here who couldn't have resisted the urge to rip....
Dave
I've been known to rip from time to time, I'm no Mike! haha!
WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
<< <i>For those who don't think this is irrational exuberance, can you explain why '76 wax packs sat on the BBCE site at $65 for months (what was it, a year ago?) and now fly out the door at $125? I get a strong whiff of "got to get 'em before someone else does!!!" >>
Wait till 2015 and you wish you had bought some, LOL!!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>For those who don't think this is irrational exuberance, can you explain why '76 wax packs sat on the BBCE site at $65 for months (what was it, a year ago?) and now fly out the door at $125? I get a strong whiff of "got to get 'em before someone else does!!!" >>
Wait till 2015 and you wish you had bought some, LOL!! >>
Luckily, I picked up '73, '75 and '76 wax packs from BBCE back during the $125/$120/$65 pricing. I don't need anything else except '71 stuff, that will break the bank all by itself.
<< <i>For those who don't think this is irrational exuberance, can you explain why '76 wax packs sat on the BBCE site at $65 for months (what was it, a year ago?) and now fly out the door at $125? I get a strong whiff of "got to get 'em before someone else does!!!" >>
125 bucks a pack for 76 ? I'm in for one of those 76 vending boxes on that big auction thread what the heck anyone think a box like that will end at ? it might put me out
neighborhood of $3k per box!
Dave you are correct--I heard they are pristine....
<< <i>It's no coincidence that someone like Reed got involved with BBCE and prices skyrocketed and continue to do so. He's WAY more aggressive in the business side of things than Steve is/was. Also, don't kid yourselves. The reason BBCE pays more for things is because they have to validate their asking prices. I would assume they rarely pay what they offer for things on their site because when buying in bulk, buy prices go down. As I said, people can buy what they want. It's not my issue. I will stay away because I believe the #1 vintage unopened dealer is manipulating the market with overly aggressive pricing. It's a bubble, IMO. >>
Some level of skepticism is healthy for all markets.