<< <i>It's no coincidence that when Reed got involved with BBCE, prices skyrocketed and will continue to do so. He's WAY more aggressive in the business side of things than Steve is/was. Also, don't kid yourselves. The reason BBCE pays more for things is because they have to validate their asking prices. I would assume they rarely pay what they offer for things on their site anyway because when buying in bulk, buy prices go down. As I said, people can buy what they want. It's not my issue. I will stay away because I believe the #1 vintage unopened dealer is manipulating the market with overly aggressive pricing. It's a bubble, IMO. >>
I'm with you on the bubble part, though I don't believe the bubble is of Steve's creation, not directly or intentionally at least.
Seems like the market for unopened is simply moving from "buy and rip" to "buy and keep". Only true collectors who want unopened will be buying since 1) you can't rip and make a profit grading/selling the cards in the packs with those prices, and 2) the joy of ripping for ripping's sake always included a little bit of profit motive. We all saw it coming we just didn't know when it would happen.
I'm not sure this is true though for most 80's product. I think there are many garages full of 80's stuff that people just gave up on and at some point they'll uncover it and there will be a big drop in prices as the perceived scarcity subsides.
I believe the #1 vintage unopened dealer is manipulating the market with overly aggressive pricing. It's a bubble, IMO.
Who is the #1 vintage unopened dealer? I have been trying to buy unopened material for my collection but I am having a hard time finding it. Surely you are not talking about BBCE as they don't have the material to manipulate any market, IMO. Not to mention BBCE has incredible customer service, knowledge and ethics. The theory of BBCE holding back material to carry out a perceived lack of product for a 2 year period is so far fetched and a horrible business practice. BBCE is like every company in which they exist to make money. The only other dealer that has vintage material is Fritch and he does a very good job of increasing prices daily and limiting the number of boxes that you might want. He runs his business the exact opposite of BBCE. Perhaps you are speaking of him, however his inventory is not what I am looking for and I would be stupid to do business with a company like his.
P.S. All the inventory of Fritsch is vending.
Looking for high grade rookie cards and unopened boxes/cases
<< <i>I believe the #1 vintage unopened dealer is manipulating the market with overly aggressive pricing. It's a bubble, IMO.
Who is the #1 vintage unopened dealer? I have been trying to buy unopened material for my collection but I am having a hard time finding it. Surely you are not talking about BBCE as they don't have the material to manipulate any market, IMO. Not to mention BBCE has incredible customer service, knowledge and ethics. The theory of BBCE holding back material to carry out a perceived lack of product for a 2 year period is so far fetched and a horrible business practice. BBCE is like every company in which they exist to make money. The only other dealer that has vintage material is Fritch and he does a very good job of increasing prices daily and limiting the number of boxes that you might want. He runs his business the exact opposite of BBCE. Perhaps you are speaking of him, however his inventory is not what I am looking for and I would be stupid to do business with a company like his.
P.S. All the inventory of Fritsch is vending. >>
I never said that they are holding back product. I said they are overly aggressive in their pricing since Reed arrived, ie taking advantage of a sellers market.
Ok so you were talking about BBCE. How do you manipulate pricing on product you have not offered for sale or sold? There are many different types of unopened material from 1970's that have not been seen or sold by them in 3 years. How is BBCE manipulating the price of unopened on Ebay and auction houses? Many would agree that Steve has been extremely fair (too fair) in his pricing over the years and the last thing he has done is price gouging. I just don't agree with you on this and I would be the first person to stand up and argue WITH if that was the case. Steve does a ton for this hobby and I am very thankful for his services.
Looking for high grade rookie cards and unopened boxes/cases
I never said that they are holding back product. I said they are overly aggressive in their pricing since Reed arrived, ie taking advantage of a sellers market.
Steve would be a bad business man if he did not sell for market value. And up until yesterday he has not sold his product at market value IMO. There is not one person on this board that is going to sell their prized card/collectible for significantly less than what others would pay. Not one. I just don't agree with your assessment.
Would you rather Steve offer up all their product in the form of an auction each week or to place the product on their website for their customers?
Looking for high grade rookie cards and unopened boxes/cases
<< <i>I never said that they are holding back product. I said they are overly aggressive in their pricing since Reed arrived, ie taking advantage of a sellers market. >>
>>
This does make sense, but I tend to agree with Dave - I don't believe the inflation in prices was directly or intentionally created by BBCE.
<< <i>It's no coincidence that when Reed got involved with BBCE, prices skyrocketed and will continue to do so. He's WAY more aggressive in the business side of things than Steve is/was. Also, don't kid yourselves. The reason BBCE pays more for things is because they have to validate their asking prices. I would assume they rarely pay what they offer for things on their site anyway because when buying in bulk, buy prices go down. As I said, people can buy what they want. It's not my issue. I will stay away because I believe the #1 vintage unopened dealer is manipulating the market with overly aggressive pricing. It's a bubble, IMO. >>
You are delusional. Reed is the EMPLOYEE. He is the guy that Steve forbade from posting here. The tail does NOT wag the dog.
And you still ignore all of the other unopened high priced sales that I previously mentioned which have nothing to do with BBCE. If anything BBCE is following the market.
<< <i>I never said that they are holding back product. I said they are overly aggressive in their pricing since Reed arrived, ie taking advantage of a sellers market. >>
This is hilarious. BBCE is the cheapest source of good material around and their "buy" prices are comical.
How can anybody say their stuff is priced too high when they cant keep stuff on the shelves for more than a few hours? I wish wax was still priced at 2010 levels also, but that just aint the case. We the consumers are driving up prices, not BBCE or any other seller. Just my 2 pennies.
You guys can validate your purchases any way you see fit. Someone get a hold of me when it's reasonable to pay $150, before shipping, for a case of 1988 Donruss.
<< <i>You guys can validate your purchases any way you see fit. Someone get a hold of me when it's reasonable to pay $150, before shipping, for a case of 1988 Donruss. >>
really? lol
Big Fan of: HOF Post War RC, Graded RCs WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
<< <i>Someone get a hold of me when it's reasonable to pay $150, before shipping, for a case of 1988 Donruss. >>
With all due respect, your comparing apples to oranges. Most of us are talking 70's- early 80's. Of course thats overpriced. You know that because its still on the shelf!!
<< <i>I was using it as an example. Nearly everything on the site seems to be overpriced now. >>
Im not being a horses hind end here, but again, how can that be? Yesterday I go to work at 2:00 I get home around 11:30, there is a 60 response thread about new wax and a good bit of it is ALREADY gone! How can you say that stuff was overpriced?
<< <i>I was using it as an example. Nearly everything on the site seems to be overpriced now. >>
Im not being a horses hind end here, but again, how can that be? Yesterday I go to work at 2:00 I get home around 11:30, there is a 60 response thread about new wax and a good bit of it is ALREADY gone! How can you say that stuff was overpriced? >>
It wasn't overpriced at that moment in time becuase the market cleared. Where the market is a year from now may or may not tell a different story.
There is a lot of investment money floating around that is gravitating towards mid-70's-early 1980's boxes. I go to shows in different markets when I travel on business, and except for the National and the big Chicago show, I don't see too much of this product available in person.
I don't want to keep beating a dead horse, but to use the fact that packs sold as evidence they are not overpriced is oversimplified. Yes, at this moment in time, that is the market, but the question is whether or not that market is reasonable and healthy, or whether it is a speculation-fueled bubble that will ultimately deflate.
Everyone is entitled to his opinion on that, but the fact that people are buying doesn't necessarily mean the product is not overpriced. People were buying tech stocks at the top, and ultimately we learned that that was a house of cards. Anyone who's aware of "bubble history" knows that people denying the bubble and declaring "new norms" is standard bubble behavior. So the bottom line is, only time will tell.
<< <i>I was using it as an example. Nearly everything on the site seems to be overpriced now. >>
Im not being a horses hind end here, but again, how can that be? Yesterday I go to work at 2:00 I get home around 11:30, there is a 60 response thread about new wax and a good bit of it is ALREADY gone! How can you say that stuff was overpriced? >>
BBCE has nothing to do with the current prices. Its supply and demand and demand is high because disposable income among most collectors of 1970-1980 product is at an all time high right now. The stock market is at all time highs, with the S&P up 300% since its low in 2008. Weve had 6 years of jawdropping wealth creation and money printing. You can only add so many zeroes to your banks accounts and 401ks before people start spending it. A rising tide lifts all boats. Money is flowing into baseball cards and unopened is a big benefactor of all that liquidity sloshing around out there. Its mind boggling how many 30 to 50 year olds have millions of dollars to buy luxuries, and unopened product and 1952 Mantles are getting alot of that money. As long as the stock market goes up and the Fed keeps printing money and handing it out to bankers, hedge fund managers, wall streeters, etc, demand will stay high. Limited supply means places like BBCE can charge high prices because the demand is there.
When does the party end? Who knows, people have been predicting the end for years now and they are always wrong. Could end tomorrow, could end in 25 years. Nobody knows.
<< <i>There is a lot of investment money floating around that is gravitating towards mid-70's-early 1980's boxes. I go to shows in different markets when I travel on business, and except for the National and the big Chicago show, I don't see too much of this product available in person. >>
Let's be honest. Many sellers simply don't want to lug around boxes and cases to shows and such. Only the big time wax guys do it, because it's part of their business model. It doesn't mean the stuff isn't out there.
I dont know if this market is a bubble or not but I am virtually certain prices won't be lower than they are now a year from now. I don't know if they will continue to rise, but that is a different debate. Vintage unopened is only going to get tougher to acquire and that will keep prices higher, imo.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>BBCE has nothing to do with the current prices. Its supply and demand and demand is high because disposable income among most collectors of 1970-1980 product is at an all time high right now. The stock market is at all time highs, with the S&P up 300% since its low in 2008. Weve had 6 years of jawdropping wealth creation and money printing. You can only add so many zeroes to your banks accounts and 401ks before people start spending it. A rising tide lifts all boats. Money is flowing into baseball cards and unopened is a big benefactor of all that liquidity sloshing around out there. Its mind boggling how many 30 to 50 year olds have millions of dollars to buy luxuries, and unopened product and 1952 Mantles are getting alot of that money. As long as the stock market goes up and the Fed keeps printing money and handing it out to bankers, hedge fund managers, wall streeters, etc, demand will stay high. Limited supply means places like BBCE can charge high prices because the demand is there.
When does the party end? Who knows, people have been predicting the end for years now and they are always wrong. Could end tomorrow, could end in 25 years. Nobody knows. >>
This, I agree with. I definately cannot predict the future. If I could, I would have too much $ to worry about the price of wax Im just saying right now, most wax appears to be priced right or maybe a tad low. But, as you said, time will tell.
<< <i>There is a lot of investment money floating around that is gravitating towards mid-70's-early 1980's boxes. I go to shows in different markets when I travel on business, and except for the National and the big Chicago show, I don't see too much of this product available in person. >>
Let's be honest. Many sellers simply don't want to lug around boxes and cases to shows and such. Only the big time wax guys do it, because it's part of their business model. It doesn't mean the stuff isn't out there. >>
That logic doesn't make sense. If you are a dealer, why wouldn't you want to bring items that would sell? A show is a limited time event, bring your best stuff. I see many dealers bringing in a bunch of 3200 count boxes of commons, a wax box weighs a lot less.
<< <i>I said they are overly aggressive in their pricing since Reed arrived, ie taking advantage of a sellers market. >>
I could not disagree more with this statement. When I dove into the insanity a couple of years ago, I was sopping wet behind the ears in many respects. One thing I was quite sure of, however, is that I was incredibly fortunate to be able to acquire boxes at what I perceived to be less than fair market value from the preeminent source of anything and everything unopened. Conventional wisdom says that I should have been paying a healthy premium with each and every purchase, yet that was not happening. I vividly recall being very thankful for that, and I've never once forgot about it. That's just one of the many reasons why my dollars continue to funnel to one place and only place only when I want to add to my collection. See how that works? Addition by subtraction........it can be a beautiful thing.
Thus is my humble opinion, Steve has left a lot of loot on the table the past couple of years. But then again, we're dealing with a different type of cat here. Playing by the rules and marching to the beat of a different drum precedes everything else in his world, and those are the prime reasons why the competition is reading the bottom of his shoes. Have his prices caught up as of late? I think so, but what's the alternative? Generating razor-thin margins until the end of time to appease individuals such as yourself? I don't think so, brother. The brick-and-mortar store he just erected was not done so under a rock. The man is out to make a buck, and I for one think he does a very admirable job of balancing profits with customer satisfaction. Let's face it, if he truly wanted to, he could make wallets disintegrate and still keep moving forward. But that hasn't happened. If anything, BBCE has been a lagging indicator over the past 24 or so months, and I for one am very appreciative of that fact.
"BBCE has nothing to do with the current prices. Its supply and demand and demand is high because disposable income among most collectors of 1970-1980 product is at an all time high right now. The stock market is at all time highs, with the S&P up 300% since its low in 2008. Weve had 6 years of jawdropping wealth creation and money printing. You can only add so many zeroes to your banks accounts and 401ks before people start spending it. A rising tide lifts all boats. Money is flowing into baseball cards and unopened is a big benefactor of all that liquidity sloshing around out there. Its mind boggling how many 30 to 50 year olds have millions of dollars to buy luxuries, and unopened product and 1952 Mantles are getting alot of that money. As long as the stock market goes up and the Fed keeps printing money and handing it out to bankers, hedge fund managers, wall streeters, etc, demand will stay high. Limited supply means places like BBCE can charge high prices because the demand is there.
When does the party end? Who knows, people have been predicting the end for years now and they are always wrong. Could end tomorrow, could end in 25 years. Nobody knows. "
I agree with this completely. You combine nostalgia, disposable cash, demand, scarcity, and emotion throw it all in a blender and you get what we are seeing. Could it be a bubble, yes. Will we see prices revert back on 1980 and prior unopened material....anything is possible but I really doubt it. The pace of increase may slow and likely will but I'm betting that the pricing stays firm.
<< <i>I dont know if this market is a bubble or not but I am virtually certain prices won't be lower than they are now a year from now. I don't know if they will continue to rise, but that is a different debate. Vintage unopened is only going to get tougher to acquire and that will keep prices higher, imo. >>
Bingo. I'm with Grote on this one, I would bet that prices won't be lower than they are now. Comparing unopened to tech stocks or gold or something else isn't very efficient. Unfortunately, unopened is in diminishing supply. Stocks have nothing to do with supply (other # of outstanding shares)... it's ultimately all about valuation. Gold has a lot more supply left, the issue now is the cost of finding and mining it. Authentic unopened is what it is, if it exists it's already out there. And of what is out there, it's only going to get less and less (damage, ripping, disasters, etc.). I think that prices will stabilize and there will be periods when prices seem to decline (if bulk of a certain product is released into the market)... but you won't see a bubble pop, that usually implies a huge price drop.
sportscardtheory, Your theory on BBCE price manipulation is just flat out incorrect. It is pretty clear you haven't actually paid any attention to their pricing the last few years. Your theory on 70s & 80s unopened prices I find hard to argue with. The challenge with inflated prices is that they can stay inflated for quite a while.
<< <i>I dont know if this market is a bubble or not but I am virtually certain prices won't be lower than they are now a year from now. I don't know if they will continue to rise, but that is a different debate. Vintage unopened is only going to get tougher to acquire and that will keep prices higher, imo. >>
Bingo. I'm with Grote on this one, I would bet that prices won't be lower than they are now. Comparing unopened to tech stocks or gold or something else isn't very efficient. Unfortunately, unopened is in diminishing supply. Stocks have nothing to do with supply (other # of outstanding shares)... it's ultimately all about valuation. Gold has a lot more supply left, the issue now is the cost of finding and mining it. Authentic unopened is what it is, if it exists it's already out there. And of what is out there, it's only going to get less and less (damage, ripping, disasters, etc.). I think that prices will stabilize and there will be periods when prices seem to decline (if bulk of a certain product is released into the market)... but you won't see a bubble pop, that usually implies a huge price drop. >>
In the past 18 months one could argue one of the primary reasons stocks rose was stock buy backs and a diminishing number of shares outstanding.
I thinks its about time for Steve to list new buying prices. Based on what has sold in the last 2 months, prices are out of range. Also, SMR graded packs need to be evaluated again.
This thread is the hottest one we've seen on this forum in months. Any thread about unopened product seemingly attracts a frenzy of responses and opinions, even from those who really have limited knowledge about the unopened market in general.
That tells me all I need to know in this market and that the appeal of unopened product remains quite strong still with room for further appreciation, imo.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>In the past 18 months one could argue one of the primary reasons stocks rose was stock buy backs and a diminishing number of shares outstanding. >>
Definitely could... but I would argue against it (at least in the general term of all stocks in the last 18 months). With stocks, earnings and P/E ratio are the driving forces. Even if a company is buying back a boatload of it's stock... if it's earnings are actually decreasing, then the buyback is virtually pointless. Less shares, but less money to go around too. I almost look at earnings as the "supply" with stocks, not the number of shares.... outstanding shares just tells you what percentage of that supply is yours. Companies can keep continuing to make more and more money for as long as they can, so really their supply of profit is endless.
I just don't see the unopened market that way. While companies can keep making more and more money, Topps can't keep making more and more 1976 cello packs. What's out there is out there. If it's lost in a flood or fire, it's gone. If someone rips it open, it's gone. Supply is never going to fluctuate upwards... so we're only left with availability and demand.
This might be the point in time where unopened is starting to separate itself from the value of the underlying cards. At some point, people are going to value having an unopened, vintage product more so than the value of the cards in it.
<< <i>In the past 18 months one could argue one of the primary reasons stocks rose was stock buy backs and a diminishing number of shares outstanding. >>
Definitely could... but I would argue against it (at least in the general term of all stocks in the last 18 months). With stocks, earnings and P/E ratio are the driving forces. Even if a company is buying back a boatload of it's stock... if it's earnings are actually decreasing, then the buyback is virtually pointless. Less shares, but less money to go around too. I almost look at earnings as the "supply" with stocks, not the number of shares.... outstanding shares just tells you what percentage of that supply is yours. Companies can keep continuing to make more and more money for as long as they can, so really their supply of profit is endless.
I just don't see the unopened market that way. While companies can keep making more and more money, Topps can't keep making more and more 1976 cello packs. What's out there is out there. If it's lost in a flood or fire, it's gone. If someone rips it open, it's gone. Supply is never going to fluctuate upwards... so we're only left with availability and demand. >>
Stock buy backs in almost all cases lead to higher EPS. In theory if your earnings fell 5% and you bought back 5% of the stock you would have flat earnings.
Your point is well taken though. No one is creating new boxes of cards and any that are opened reduces the supply in theory permanently. That being said we know this isn't completely true due to pack resealers.
Over the long run you would expect supply to decline though for sure.
First and foremost, allow me to apologize up front for the treacherous statements I am about to make. Given the new price point of vintage unopened and the stellar reputation of BBCE, how long until someone tries to counterfeit Steve's new shrink wrap and use it on some newly minted vintage?
I've often thought that too about a possible counterfeiting of the shrinkwrap, but if it does at some point happen, the guilty party would also have to become quite the signature forger as Steve signs his business cards on the bottom. Though I guess it's possible for someone to take an already filled out business card from a prior purchase or whatnot and use that. I hope this never happens.
Always looking for OPC "tape intact" baseball wax boxes, and 1984 OPC baseball PSA 10's for my set. Please PM or email me if you have any available.
<< <i>First and foremost, allow me to apologize up front for the treacherous statements I am about to make. Given the new price point of vintage unopened and the stellar reputation of BBCE, how long until someone tries to counterfeit Steve's new shrink wrap and use it on some newly minted vintage? >>
It's already been attempted. Probstein had recently listed a few boxes that had counterfeit stickers and they were taken down shortly after being listed. The good thing is that Steve has very distinct handwriting, and these were obviously forged. The font style on sticker was off, too.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>This thread is the hottest one we've seen on this forum in months. Any thread about unopened product seemingly attracts a frenzy of responses and opinions, even from those who really have limited knowledge about the unopened market in general.
That tells me all I need to know in this market and that the appeal of unopened product remains quite strong still with room for further appreciation, imo. >>
I don't necessarily disagree with you, Tim. But some of the people that have limited knowledge about the unopened market are also buyers/touters. That gives me some pause.
Just my 2 cents. The prices of unopened material is going to crash hard. This is the only product I know that once you open it you lose 99.9% of the time. A good example is the 1986 Football box that BBCE is selling for $750. A board member opened a box recently and he would be lucky to get $200 for all cards he received. What are you really buying? A pack of cards that is still factory sealed? Nobody can dispute that once you open the box or pack unless your very lucky you will never be able to recoup your money. What are you really looking for, nice centered cards that would grade a PSA 9 or 10? Why not just buy the cards already graded and save yourself lots of money. If you want a 86 Fleer Jordan in PSA 10, why not pay the $10,000 and be guaranteed the card instead of paying $15,000 for the box and hope you get lucky and the cards grade a PSA 8 or 9. The prices these packs and boxes are going for do not make sense. Maybe when the 86 Football box's were $350 you can buy and open but not at today's prices. Again just my 2 cents.
Bigben - If you went to 7-11 and bought four scratch off tickets you would be lucky to win $1 back. People buy tickets for entertainment and the thrill of hitting a big payout. No different in opening up a wax box except you actually have something left over at the end of the day.
Looking for high grade rookie cards and unopened boxes/cases
<< <i>This thread is the hottest one we've seen on this forum in months. Any thread about unopened product seemingly attracts a frenzy of responses and opinions, even from those who really have limited knowledge about the unopened market in general.
That tells me all I need to know in this market and that the appeal of unopened product remains quite strong still with room for further appreciation, imo. >>
I don't necessarily disagree with you, Tim. But some of the people that have limited knowledge about the unopened market are also buyers/touters. That gives me some pause. >>
I agree with the latter part of your post, Arthur. I know I am buying much less in this market at these prices, as are fellow long-time collectors I know, but obviously there's a new crop of bidders to fill the void. The buying pool is definitely larger than it was years ago.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Bigben - If you went to 7-11 and bought four scratch off tickets you would be lucky to win $1 back. People buy tickets for entertainment and the thrill of hitting a big payout. No different in opening up a wax box except you actually have something left over at the end of the day. >>
1954 you made my point. If you are buying unopen for the lottery hit then fine. Just don't think this is a long term investment which will reward you handsomely in the future. Just reminds me when people where buying and flipping homes in 2006-2007 and we know how that ended. Those home buyers are still in the red.
<< <i>Bigben - If you went to 7-11 and bought four scratch off tickets you would be lucky to win $1 back. People buy tickets for entertainment and the thrill of hitting a big payout. No different in opening up a wax box except you actually have something left over at the end of the day. >>
1954 you made my point. If you are buying unopen for the lottery hit then fine. Just don't think this is a long term investment which will reward you handsomely in the future. Just reminds me when people where buying and flipping homes in 2006-2007 and we now how that ended. Those home buyers are still in the red. >>
In some areas of LA and SF homes prices are HIGHER than in the peak.
<< <i>Bigben - If you went to 7-11 and bought four scratch off tickets you would be lucky to win $1 back. People buy tickets for entertainment and the thrill of hitting a big payout. No different in opening up a wax box except you actually have something left over at the end of the day. >>
1954 you made my point. If you are buying unopen for the lottery hit then fine. Just don't think this is a long term investment which will reward you handsomely in the future. Just reminds me when people where buying and flipping homes in 2006-2007 and we now how that ended. Those home buyers are still in the red. >>
The part you are missing though is that many unopened collectors have no interest in what possible graded cards are even in these boxes. They have no interest in opening them to begin with.
The value and appeal is in the scarcity of the box itself.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>It reminds me what a stockbroker once told me "when everybody is buying it is time to get out". >>
Hopefully, you didn't sell off a year ago when everyone though market had peaked at that point, lol.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Bigben - If you went to 7-11 and bought four scratch off tickets you would be lucky to win $1 back. People buy tickets for entertainment and the thrill of hitting a big payout. No different in opening up a wax box except you actually have something left over at the end of the day. >>
1954 you made my point. If you are buying unopen for the lottery hit then fine. Just don't think this is a long term investment which will reward you handsomely in the future. Just reminds me when people where buying and flipping homes in 2006-2007 and we now how that ended. Those home buyers are still in the red. >>
BigBen - I don't mean to single you out but you raised 2 points that I see so many people bring up in these "unopened product" discussions…and IMO, they are flawed and/or irrelevant. First of all, your reference to 86 fleer bskt and 86 tops fb box pricing doesn't tell the whole story - there are another 140 some odd cards (besides Jordan) that have the potential to be worth big dollars..not to mention you will get 3 Jordans in that box. Do a quick search on eBay for closing prices on PSA 9's from 1986 Topps FB - Rice and Young in a 9 just paid for the box. Now search 10's….hit a Montana and there's $4K. I'm not saying anyone is guaranteed these grades, but when someone can buy a $200, 500 or 1000 box and POTENTIALLY hit grades from those cards that would be worth 3X, 5X, 10X what they paid for the box, it's easy to see why the box price doesn't seem that high to some. Another thing that seems to be left out in this discussion is the idea that the rising prices of unopened product will in turn drive up the value/price of the individual cards. You can see that happening now with all the "big" cards from the 70' and 80's increasing in price…many to record levels. The second thing you referenced is the housing market - not even close to being a fair comparison to the unopened sports card market. I don't remember the exact way he put it, but another board member once said something to the effect that if you are going to do a comparison to the 2 markets, then you have to assume a finite number of houses exist and no others can EVER be built again or repaired or fixed up, etc. I'm not doing his quote justice, but I hope I helped echo his point.
Comments
<< <i>It's no coincidence that when Reed got involved with BBCE, prices skyrocketed and will continue to do so. He's WAY more aggressive in the business side of things than Steve is/was. Also, don't kid yourselves. The reason BBCE pays more for things is because they have to validate their asking prices. I would assume they rarely pay what they offer for things on their site anyway because when buying in bulk, buy prices go down. As I said, people can buy what they want. It's not my issue. I will stay away because I believe the #1 vintage unopened dealer is manipulating the market with overly aggressive pricing. It's a bubble, IMO. >>
I'm with you on the bubble part, though I don't believe the bubble is of Steve's creation, not directly or intentionally at least.
I'm not sure this is true though for most 80's product. I think there are many garages full of 80's stuff that people just gave up on and at some point they'll uncover it and there will be a big drop in prices as the perceived scarcity subsides.
"Molon Labe"
Who is the #1 vintage unopened dealer? I have been trying to buy unopened material for my collection but I am having a hard time finding it. Surely you are not talking about BBCE as they don't have the material to manipulate any market, IMO. Not to mention BBCE has incredible customer service, knowledge and ethics. The theory of BBCE holding back material to carry out a perceived lack of product for a 2 year period is so far fetched and a horrible business practice. BBCE is like every company in which they exist to make money. The only other dealer that has vintage material is Fritch and he does a very good job of increasing prices daily and limiting the number of boxes that you might want. He runs his business the exact opposite of BBCE. Perhaps you are speaking of him, however his inventory is not what I am looking for and I would be stupid to do business with a company like his.
P.S. All the inventory of Fritsch is vending.
<< <i>I believe the #1 vintage unopened dealer is manipulating the market with overly aggressive pricing. It's a bubble, IMO.
Who is the #1 vintage unopened dealer? I have been trying to buy unopened material for my collection but I am having a hard time finding it. Surely you are not talking about BBCE as they don't have the material to manipulate any market, IMO. Not to mention BBCE has incredible customer service, knowledge and ethics. The theory of BBCE holding back material to carry out a perceived lack of product for a 2 year period is so far fetched and a horrible business practice. BBCE is like every company in which they exist to make money. The only other dealer that has vintage material is Fritch and he does a very good job of increasing prices daily and limiting the number of boxes that you might want. He runs his business the exact opposite of BBCE. Perhaps you are speaking of him, however his inventory is not what I am looking for and I would be stupid to do business with a company like his.
P.S. All the inventory of Fritsch is vending. >>
I never said that they are holding back product. I said they are overly aggressive in their pricing since Reed arrived, ie taking advantage of a sellers market.
Steve would be a bad business man if he did not sell for market value. And up until yesterday he has not sold his product at market value IMO. There is not one person on this board that is going to sell their prized card/collectible for significantly less than what others would pay. Not one. I just don't agree with your assessment.
Would you rather Steve offer up all their product in the form of an auction each week or to place the product on their website for their customers?
<< <i>
<< <i>I never said that they are holding back product. I said they are overly aggressive in their pricing since Reed arrived, ie taking advantage of a sellers market. >>
>>
This does make sense, but I tend to agree with Dave - I don't believe the inflation in prices was directly or intentionally created by BBCE.
<< <i>It's no coincidence that when Reed got involved with BBCE, prices skyrocketed and will continue to do so. He's WAY more aggressive in the business side of things than Steve is/was. Also, don't kid yourselves. The reason BBCE pays more for things is because they have to validate their asking prices. I would assume they rarely pay what they offer for things on their site anyway because when buying in bulk, buy prices go down. As I said, people can buy what they want. It's not my issue. I will stay away because I believe the #1 vintage unopened dealer is manipulating the market with overly aggressive pricing. It's a bubble, IMO. >>
You are delusional. Reed is the EMPLOYEE. He is the guy that Steve forbade from posting here. The tail does NOT wag the dog.
And you still ignore all of the other unopened high priced sales that I previously mentioned which have nothing to do with BBCE. If anything BBCE is following the market.
Dave
<< <i>I never said that they are holding back product. I said they are overly aggressive in their pricing since Reed arrived, ie taking advantage of a sellers market. >>
This is hilarious. BBCE is the cheapest source of good material around and their "buy" prices are comical.
"Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." Dr. Seuss
I wish wax was still priced at 2010 levels also, but that just aint the case. We the consumers are driving up prices, not
BBCE or any other seller. Just my 2 pennies.
<< <i>You guys can validate your purchases any way you see fit. Someone get a hold of me when it's reasonable to pay $150, before shipping, for a case of 1988 Donruss. >>
really? lol
WTB: PSA 1 - PSA 3 Centered, High Eye Appeal 1950's Mantle
<< <i>Someone get a hold of me when it's reasonable to pay $150, before shipping, for a case of 1988 Donruss. >>
With all due respect, your comparing apples to oranges. Most of us are talking 70's- early 80's. Of course thats
overpriced. You know that because its still on the shelf!!
<< <i>I was using it as an example. Nearly everything on the site seems to be overpriced now. >>
Im not being a horses hind end here, but again, how can that be? Yesterday I go to work at 2:00
I get home around 11:30, there is a 60 response thread about new wax and a good bit of it is
ALREADY gone! How can you say that stuff was overpriced?
<< <i>
<< <i>I was using it as an example. Nearly everything on the site seems to be overpriced now. >>
Im not being a horses hind end here, but again, how can that be? Yesterday I go to work at 2:00
I get home around 11:30, there is a 60 response thread about new wax and a good bit of it is
ALREADY gone! How can you say that stuff was overpriced? >>
It wasn't overpriced at that moment in time becuase the market cleared. Where the market is a year from now may or may not tell a different story.
Everyone is entitled to his opinion on that, but the fact that people are buying doesn't necessarily mean the product is not overpriced. People were buying tech stocks at the top, and ultimately we learned that that was a house of cards. Anyone who's aware of "bubble history" knows that people denying the bubble and declaring "new norms" is standard bubble behavior. So the bottom line is, only time will tell.
<< <i>
<< <i>I was using it as an example. Nearly everything on the site seems to be overpriced now. >>
Im not being a horses hind end here, but again, how can that be? Yesterday I go to work at 2:00
I get home around 11:30, there is a 60 response thread about new wax and a good bit of it is
ALREADY gone! How can you say that stuff was overpriced? >>
Just keep buying then. Nothing to see here.
When does the party end? Who knows, people have been predicting the end for years now and they are always wrong. Could end tomorrow, could end in 25 years. Nobody knows.
<< <i>There is a lot of investment money floating around that is gravitating towards mid-70's-early 1980's boxes. I go to shows in different markets when I travel on business, and except for the National and the big Chicago show, I don't see too much of this product available in person. >>
Let's be honest. Many sellers simply don't want to lug around boxes and cases to shows and such. Only the big time wax guys do it, because it's part of their business model. It doesn't mean the stuff isn't out there.
<< <i>BBCE has nothing to do with the current prices. >>
I couldn't disagree more.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>BBCE has nothing to do with the current prices. Its supply and demand and demand is high because disposable income among most collectors of 1970-1980 product is at an all time high right now. The stock market is at all time highs, with the S&P up 300% since its low in 2008. Weve had 6 years of jawdropping wealth creation and money printing. You can only add so many zeroes to your banks accounts and 401ks before people start spending it. A rising tide lifts all boats. Money is flowing into baseball cards and unopened is a big benefactor of all that liquidity sloshing around out there. Its mind boggling how many 30 to 50 year olds have millions of dollars to buy luxuries, and unopened product and 1952 Mantles are getting alot of that money. As long as the stock market goes up and the Fed keeps printing money and handing it out to bankers, hedge fund managers, wall streeters, etc, demand will stay high. Limited supply means places like BBCE can charge high prices because the demand is there.
When does the party end? Who knows, people have been predicting the end for years now and they are always wrong. Could end tomorrow, could end in 25 years. Nobody knows. >>
This, I agree with. I definately cannot predict the future. If I could, I would have too much $ to worry about the price of wax
right now, most wax appears to be priced right or maybe a tad low. But, as you said, time will tell.
<< <i>
<< <i>There is a lot of investment money floating around that is gravitating towards mid-70's-early 1980's boxes. I go to shows in different markets when I travel on business, and except for the National and the big Chicago show, I don't see too much of this product available in person. >>
Let's be honest. Many sellers simply don't want to lug around boxes and cases to shows and such. Only the big time wax guys do it, because it's part of their business model. It doesn't mean the stuff isn't out there. >>
That logic doesn't make sense. If you are a dealer, why wouldn't you want to bring items that would sell? A show is a limited time event, bring your best stuff. I see many dealers bringing in a bunch of 3200 count boxes of commons, a wax box weighs a lot less.
<< <i>I said they are overly aggressive in their pricing since Reed arrived, ie taking advantage of a sellers market. >>
I could not disagree more with this statement. When I dove into the insanity a couple of years ago, I was sopping wet behind the ears in many respects. One thing I was quite sure of, however, is that I was incredibly fortunate to be able to acquire boxes at what I perceived to be less than fair market value from the preeminent source of anything and everything unopened. Conventional wisdom says that I should have been paying a healthy premium with each and every purchase, yet that was not happening. I vividly recall being very thankful for that, and I've never once forgot about it. That's just one of the many reasons why my dollars continue to funnel to one place and only place only when I want to add to my collection. See how that works? Addition by subtraction........it can be a beautiful thing.
Thus is my humble opinion, Steve has left a lot of loot on the table the past couple of years. But then again, we're dealing with a different type of cat here. Playing by the rules and marching to the beat of a different drum precedes everything else in his world, and those are the prime reasons why the competition is reading the bottom of his shoes. Have his prices caught up as of late? I think so, but what's the alternative? Generating razor-thin margins until the end of time to appease individuals such as yourself? I don't think so, brother. The brick-and-mortar store he just erected was not done so under a rock. The man is out to make a buck, and I for one think he does a very admirable job of balancing profits with customer satisfaction. Let's face it, if he truly wanted to, he could make wallets disintegrate and still keep moving forward. But that hasn't happened. If anything, BBCE has been a lagging indicator over the past 24 or so months, and I for one am very appreciative of that fact.
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
When does the party end? Who knows, people have been predicting the end for years now and they are always wrong. Could end tomorrow, could end in 25 years. Nobody knows. "
I agree with this completely. You combine nostalgia, disposable cash, demand, scarcity, and emotion throw it all in a blender and you get what we are seeing. Could it be a bubble, yes. Will we see prices revert back on 1980 and prior unopened material....anything is possible but I really doubt it. The pace of increase may slow and likely will but I'm betting that the pricing stays firm.
Signed,
Steve and Reed from BBCE
<< <i>I dont know if this market is a bubble or not but I am virtually certain prices won't be lower than they are now a year from now. I don't know if they will continue to rise, but that is a different debate. Vintage unopened is only going to get tougher to acquire and that will keep prices higher, imo. >>
Bingo. I'm with Grote on this one, I would bet that prices won't be lower than they are now. Comparing unopened to tech stocks or gold or something else isn't very efficient. Unfortunately, unopened is in diminishing supply. Stocks have nothing to do with supply (other # of outstanding shares)... it's ultimately all about valuation. Gold has a lot more supply left, the issue now is the cost of finding and mining it. Authentic unopened is what it is, if it exists it's already out there. And of what is out there, it's only going to get less and less (damage, ripping, disasters, etc.). I think that prices will stabilize and there will be periods when prices seem to decline (if bulk of a certain product is released into the market)... but you won't see a bubble pop, that usually implies a huge price drop.
Your theory on BBCE price manipulation is just flat out incorrect. It is pretty clear you haven't actually paid any attention to their pricing the last few years.
Your theory on 70s & 80s unopened prices I find hard to argue with. The challenge with inflated prices is that they can stay inflated for quite a while.
Robb
<< <i>
<< <i>I dont know if this market is a bubble or not but I am virtually certain prices won't be lower than they are now a year from now. I don't know if they will continue to rise, but that is a different debate. Vintage unopened is only going to get tougher to acquire and that will keep prices higher, imo. >>
Bingo. I'm with Grote on this one, I would bet that prices won't be lower than they are now. Comparing unopened to tech stocks or gold or something else isn't very efficient. Unfortunately, unopened is in diminishing supply. Stocks have nothing to do with supply (other # of outstanding shares)... it's ultimately all about valuation. Gold has a lot more supply left, the issue now is the cost of finding and mining it. Authentic unopened is what it is, if it exists it's already out there. And of what is out there, it's only going to get less and less (damage, ripping, disasters, etc.). I think that prices will stabilize and there will be periods when prices seem to decline (if bulk of a certain product is released into the market)... but you won't see a bubble pop, that usually implies a huge price drop. >>
In the past 18 months one could argue one of the primary reasons stocks rose was stock buy backs and a diminishing number of shares outstanding.
That tells me all I need to know in this market and that the appeal of unopened product remains quite strong still with room for further appreciation, imo.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>In the past 18 months one could argue one of the primary reasons stocks rose was stock buy backs and a diminishing number of shares outstanding. >>
Definitely could... but I would argue against it (at least in the general term of all stocks in the last 18 months). With stocks, earnings and P/E ratio are the driving forces. Even if a company is buying back a boatload of it's stock... if it's earnings are actually decreasing, then the buyback is virtually pointless. Less shares, but less money to go around too. I almost look at earnings as the "supply" with stocks, not the number of shares.... outstanding shares just tells you what percentage of that supply is yours. Companies can keep continuing to make more and more money for as long as they can, so really their supply of profit is endless.
I just don't see the unopened market that way. While companies can keep making more and more money, Topps can't keep making more and more 1976 cello packs. What's out there is out there. If it's lost in a flood or fire, it's gone. If someone rips it open, it's gone. Supply is never going to fluctuate upwards... so we're only left with availability and demand.
This might be the point in time where unopened is starting to separate itself from the value of the underlying cards. At some point, people are going to value having an unopened, vintage product more so than the value of the cards in it.
*edited for spelling
<< <i>
<< <i>In the past 18 months one could argue one of the primary reasons stocks rose was stock buy backs and a diminishing number of shares outstanding. >>
Definitely could... but I would argue against it (at least in the general term of all stocks in the last 18 months). With stocks, earnings and P/E ratio are the driving forces. Even if a company is buying back a boatload of it's stock... if it's earnings are actually decreasing, then the buyback is virtually pointless. Less shares, but less money to go around too. I almost look at earnings as the "supply" with stocks, not the number of shares.... outstanding shares just tells you what percentage of that supply is yours. Companies can keep continuing to make more and more money for as long as they can, so really their supply of profit is endless.
I just don't see the unopened market that way. While companies can keep making more and more money, Topps can't keep making more and more 1976 cello packs. What's out there is out there. If it's lost in a flood or fire, it's gone. If someone rips it open, it's gone. Supply is never going to fluctuate upwards... so we're only left with availability and demand. >>
Stock buy backs in almost all cases lead to higher EPS. In theory if your earnings fell 5% and you bought back 5% of the stock you would have flat earnings.
Your point is well taken though. No one is creating new boxes of cards and any that are opened reduces the supply in theory permanently. That being said we know this isn't completely true due to pack resealers.
Over the long run you would expect supply to decline though for sure.
<< <i>First and foremost, allow me to apologize up front for the treacherous statements I am about to make. Given the new price point of vintage unopened and the stellar reputation of BBCE, how long until someone tries to counterfeit Steve's new shrink wrap and use it on some newly minted vintage? >>
It's already been attempted. Probstein had recently listed a few boxes that had counterfeit stickers and they were taken down shortly after being listed. The good thing is that Steve has very distinct handwriting, and these were obviously forged. The font style on sticker was off, too.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>This thread is the hottest one we've seen on this forum in months. Any thread about unopened product seemingly attracts a frenzy of responses and opinions, even from those who really have limited knowledge about the unopened market in general.
That tells me all I need to know in this market and that the appeal of unopened product remains quite strong still with room for further appreciation, imo. >>
I don't necessarily disagree with you, Tim. But some of the people that have limited knowledge about the unopened market are also buyers/touters. That gives me some pause.
<< <i>
<< <i>This thread is the hottest one we've seen on this forum in months. Any thread about unopened product seemingly attracts a frenzy of responses and opinions, even from those who really have limited knowledge about the unopened market in general.
That tells me all I need to know in this market and that the appeal of unopened product remains quite strong still with room for further appreciation, imo. >>
I don't necessarily disagree with you, Tim. But some of the people that have limited knowledge about the unopened market are also buyers/touters. That gives me some pause. >>
I agree with the latter part of your post, Arthur. I know I am buying much less in this market at these prices, as are fellow long-time collectors I know, but obviously there's a new crop of bidders to fill the void. The buying pool is definitely larger than it was years ago.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Bigben - If you went to 7-11 and bought four scratch off tickets you would be lucky to win $1 back. People buy tickets for entertainment and the thrill of hitting a big payout. No different in opening up a wax box except you actually have something left over at the end of the day. >>
1954 you made my point. If you are buying unopen for the lottery hit then fine. Just don't think this is a long term investment which will reward you handsomely in the future. Just reminds me when people where buying and flipping homes in 2006-2007 and we know how that ended. Those home buyers are still in the red.
<< <i>
<< <i>Bigben - If you went to 7-11 and bought four scratch off tickets you would be lucky to win $1 back. People buy tickets for entertainment and the thrill of hitting a big payout. No different in opening up a wax box except you actually have something left over at the end of the day. >>
1954 you made my point. If you are buying unopen for the lottery hit then fine. Just don't think this is a long term investment which will reward you handsomely in the future. Just reminds me when people where buying and flipping homes in 2006-2007 and we now how that ended. Those home buyers are still in the red. >>
In some areas of LA and SF homes prices are HIGHER than in the peak.
<< <i>
<< <i>Bigben - If you went to 7-11 and bought four scratch off tickets you would be lucky to win $1 back. People buy tickets for entertainment and the thrill of hitting a big payout. No different in opening up a wax box except you actually have something left over at the end of the day. >>
1954 you made my point. If you are buying unopen for the lottery hit then fine. Just don't think this is a long term investment which will reward you handsomely in the future. Just reminds me when people where buying and flipping homes in 2006-2007 and we now how that ended. Those home buyers are still in the red. >>
The part you are missing though is that many unopened collectors have no interest in what possible graded cards are even in these boxes. They have no interest in opening them to begin with.
The value and appeal is in the scarcity of the box itself.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>It reminds me what a stockbroker once told me "when everybody is buying it is time to get out". >>
Hopefully, you didn't sell off a year ago when everyone though market had peaked at that point, lol.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>Bigben - If you went to 7-11 and bought four scratch off tickets you would be lucky to win $1 back. People buy tickets for entertainment and the thrill of hitting a big payout. No different in opening up a wax box except you actually have something left over at the end of the day. >>
1954 you made my point. If you are buying unopen for the lottery hit then fine. Just don't think this is a long term investment which will reward you handsomely in the future. Just reminds me when people where buying and flipping homes in 2006-2007 and we now how that ended. Those home buyers are still in the red. >>
BigBen - I don't mean to single you out but you raised 2 points that I see so many people bring up in these "unopened product" discussions…and IMO, they are flawed and/or irrelevant. First of all, your reference to 86 fleer bskt and 86 tops fb box pricing doesn't tell the whole story - there are another 140 some odd cards (besides Jordan) that have the potential to be worth big dollars..not to mention you will get 3 Jordans in that box. Do a quick search on eBay for closing prices on PSA 9's from 1986 Topps FB - Rice and Young in a 9 just paid for the box. Now search 10's….hit a Montana and there's $4K. I'm not saying anyone is guaranteed these grades, but when someone can buy a $200, 500 or 1000 box and POTENTIALLY hit grades from those cards that would be worth 3X, 5X, 10X what they paid for the box, it's easy to see why the box price doesn't seem that high to some. Another thing that seems to be left out in this discussion is the idea that the rising prices of unopened product will in turn drive up the value/price of the individual cards. You can see that happening now with all the "big" cards from the 70' and 80's increasing in price…many to record levels. The second thing you referenced is the housing market - not even close to being a fair comparison to the unopened sports card market. I don't remember the exact way he put it, but another board member once said something to the effect that if you are going to do a comparison to the 2 markets, then you have to assume a finite number of houses exist and no others can EVER be built again or repaired or fixed up, etc. I'm not doing his quote justice, but I hope I helped echo his point.