just figured id give my 2 cents worth I have been buying unopened for around 20 yrs now and I can tell you that yes the prices have sky rocketed on a lot of the wax...but I can also tell you that it is almost getting impossible to find unopened cases of this stuff and I am still a buyer at higher prices...I truly believe that older wax will get tuffer and tuffer to find as more of it is opened and also I agree that there are more players in the game...I see both sides to this but I am on the side that this stuff still has more upside just my take....to me there are still a few wax products in baseball that in my eyes are a steal at current prices...again I can see both sides to this as I am having to spend a lot more on wax,cellos,fun bags,trays etc..but I do not see a sky is falling situation...im sure it will slow down at some point I am just not sure when ....I also was very bummed about psa not holdering packs with the broken gum but I can almost assure you that they will come out with a new holder to take care of this problem down the road ...as far as steve goes I myself don't believe there is any hoard of wax he is holding at all and if there is I am a buyer....
I am in the opinion that $ wise, the guys on the boards are a small % of the un-opened buyers. However, I wonder how much impact WE have had on the un-opened market by doing all of our group breaks and posts on this board for the last 4 or 5 years?????????
<< <i>I am in the opinion that $ wise, the guys on the boards are a small % of the un-opened buyers. However, I wonder how much impact WE have had on the un-opened market by doing all of our group breaks and posts on this board for the last 4 or 5 years?????????
Mark >>
The next time an unopened box goes up that is hotly contested. After it is over do a show of hands how many bid on it. I bet at least 50% or more are on the boards.
Don't get me wrong, I hope you guys do win the cases in the ML auctions and I would love to see the cards that come out of the 77 vending box. I just rather buy the card in the holder then trying to get the card out of the box.
<< <i>I am in the opinion that $ wise, the guys on the boards are a small % of the un-opened buyers. However, I wonder how much impact WE have had on the un-opened market by doing all of our group breaks and posts on this board for the last 4 or 5 years?????????
Mark >>
The next time an unopened box goes up that is hotly contested. After it is over do a show of hands how many bid on it. I bet at least 50% or more are on the boards. >>
I am sure many of the guys on the boards do bid on a lot of stuff and buy stuff from Steve but from a $ perspective I believe the guys with the really deep pockets are winning the "good stuff" and setting the new "price point" for the material. Again, just my belief.
<< <i>I am in the opinion that $ wise, the guys on the boards are a small % of the un-opened buyers. However, I wonder how much impact WE have had on the un-opened market by doing all of our group breaks and posts on this board for the last 4 or 5 years?????????
Mark >>
The next time an unopened box goes up that is hotly contested. After it is over do a show of hands how many bid on it. I bet at least 50% or more are on the boards. >>
I am sure many of the guys on the boards do bid on a lot of stuff and buy stuff from Steve but from a $ perspective I believe the guys with the really deep pockets are winning the "good stuff" and setting the new "price point" for the material. Again, just my belief.
Mark >>
Mark is correct. I"d estimate the percentage of bidders from these boards bidding on one of Steve's ebay auctions for a higher end box is 25% at best and likely lower than that.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I am in the opinion that $ wise, the guys on the boards are a small % of the un-opened buyers. However, I wonder how much impact WE have had on the un-opened market by doing all of our group breaks and posts on this board for the last 4 or 5 years?????????
Mark >>
The next time an unopened box goes up that is hotly contested. After it is over do a show of hands how many bid on it. I bet at least 50% or more are on the boards. >>
I am sure many of the guys on the boards do bid on a lot of stuff and buy stuff from Steve but from a $ perspective I believe the guys with the really deep pockets are winning the "good stuff" and setting the new "price point" for the material. Again, just my belief.
Mark >>
Mark is correct. I"d estimate the percentage of bidders from these boards bidding on one of Steve's ebay auctions for a higher end box is 25% at best and likely lower than that. >>
I am shocked at how few bidders there are on these vintage boxes.
The late 70's have even more bidders and I am sure some from the board bid on these. My guess of 50% was just a guess. But I feel confident there are people reading this that have bid on all four examples.
<< <i>Just my 2 cents. The prices of unopened material is going to crash hard. This is the only product I know that once you open it you lose 99.9% of the time. >>
And yet manufacturers keep churning out $500+ or $1000+ modern boxes year after year. The lottery mentality is nothing new to this hobby. But, as others have said, not everyone is buying boxes with the intent of opening them.
As far as current price levels... who knows if they will continue to rise, level off, or even decrease. As others have mentioned before, the assumption that people are buying these to open and the supply is always going down... the supply curve probably leveled off a bit as the price curve took off. How many people are buying a 1986T FB box, to use Ben's analogy, to open at $750 compared to when they were $350... probably less in terms of a percentage. The supply isn't going up... but probably isn't dwindling as quickly as some may assume, at least not on higher end stuff.
Clearly the recent trajectory of unopened prices has garnered the segment a lot of attention. Some rushed in as genuine collectors, trying to get their items of interest before they went up even more. Others are flippers, recognizing BBCE prices were at times below market, so they bought and sold either immediately or after sitting on the item a short time. Some are piling in strictly as an investment. It all reminds me a bit of the heady days of the sports card hobby itself booming... then busting... and I don't discount unopened could give back at least some of the gains, although I can't see it collapsing like cards themselves did. Just my guess...
Oh, and sportscardstheory, don't back down one bit. BBCE is not only the hidden hand behind this market, I am pretty sure they are working with the Illuminati, Reptilians, Zionists, Knights Templar, Free Masons, and Scott Baio to cause Velveeta shortages during key sporting events as well. I'm glad someone finally had the courage to say it.
<< <i>Just my 2 cents. The prices of unopened material is going to crash hard. This is the only product I know that once you open it you lose 99.9% of the time. >>
And yet manufacturers keep churning out $500+ or $1000+ modern boxes year after year. The lottery mentality is nothing new to this hobby. But, as others have said, not everyone is buying boxes with the intent of opening them.
As far as current price levels... who knows if they will continue to rise, level off, or even decrease. As others have mentioned before, the assumption that people are buying these to open and the supply is always going down... the supply curve probably leveled off a bit as the price curve took off. How many people are buying a 1986T FB box, to use Ben's analogy, to open at $750 compared to when they were $350... probably less in terms of a percentage. The supply isn't going up... but probably isn't dwindling as quickly as some may assume, at least not on higher end stuff.
Clearly the recent trajectory of unopened prices has garnered the segment a lot of attention. Some rushed in as genuine collectors, trying to get their items of interest before they went up even more. Others are flippers, recognizing BBCE prices were at times below market, so they bought and sold either immediately or after sitting on the item a short time. Some are piling in strictly as an investment. It all reminds me a bit of the heady days of the sports card hobby itself booming... then busting... and I don't discount unopened could give back at least some of the gains, although I can't see it collapsing like cards themselves did. Just my guess...
Oh, and sportscardstheory, don't back down one bit. BBCE is not only the hidden hand behind this market, I am pretty sure they are working with the Illuminati, Reptilians, Zionists, Knights Templar, Free Masons, and Scott Baio to cause Velveeta shortages during key sporting events as well. I'm glad someone finally had the courage to say it.
Snorto~ >>
And Steve was also in cohoots with J Edgar Hoover in plotting the Kennedy Assasinations, Nixon and Watergate, Ollie North and Iran/Contra, etc.
<< <i>I was using it as an example. Nearly everything on the site seems to be overpriced now. >>
Overpriced based on what metric? Your opinion on what pricing should be for vintage unopened product?
Your conspiracy theories on BBCE and Steve manipulating the market in cahoots with the aggressive Reed sound rather far-fetched based on actual facts, or at least based on market results that are wholly independent and have absolutely little if anything to do with BBCE prices. If anything, Steve has been playing catch up these past 12-24 months.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Sorry if this has been mentioned, but have you seen what the Fritsch stuff has been bringing through Collect? That has nothing to do with BBCE. Just one example.
Forgive the shot across the ego here, but as a group, we really need to get over ourselves. The universe does not revolved around these boards. It kind of reminds me of the old Imus sign off, which I wont repeat here now.
I have used this example more than once on the mini boards. I believe I graded more minis than anyone over the last four years or so and have sold to every registry participant. That said, I can tell you that there are as many active sets off the registry as there are on. I don't know if that is true for all sets, but the point remains that there is a world beyond this site.
<< <i>Your conspiracy theories on BBCE and Steve manipulating the market in cahoots with the aggressive Reed sound rather far-fetched based on actual facts, or at least based on market results that are wholly independent and have absolutely little if anything to do with BBCE prices. If anything, Steve has been playing catch up these past 12-24 months. >>
After a long day working on a deal in CA, I settle in back in my hotel room, and find out this thread has turned into a gem!
First, as another mentioned here, Steve is the boss; I'm just an employee. A very knowledgeable and hard-working employee, but an employee nonetheless. I've heard rumors that I own a piece of BBCE, but nothing could be further from the truth. Still just an employee.
With regards to being aggressive when it comes to pricing, I can tell you that for vintage unopened, Steve sets the pricing. I really don't have a say. When it comes to pricing the other items we sell (post-1990 unopened, graded cards, autographed memorabilia), those are the types of products where I have the primary responsibility of determining pricing.
I think the changes BBCE has experienced since Steve hired me are:
- While vintage unopened is what we are best known for, it no longer is the dominant product line at BBCE. No matter where you draw the line between vintage and modern unopened, BBCE has now become the largest dealer of 80s, 90s, and 00s unopened, with a diverse selection of product unmatched by anyone in the world.
- We are constantly on the road buying collections and deals. While Steve still gets out of the office to pursue deals, I will probably spend over 200 days on the road chasing down leads, trying to satisfy all your collecting needs! The amount of sellers that want to work with us, and are willing to wait until we make it to their neck of the woods, is tremendous. We always have a list of 30-40 leads to work off of, and by the time I can put together a buying trip to hit 10-15 sellers, we've already replenished our list of leads. I don't think I've been home for two straight weeks since this time last year.
- Steve lets me buy anything that we can make money on, and that has significantly diversified our product line. In addition to the aforementioned unopened market, we are one of the top sellers of vintage graded singles. Very few dealers can claim they buy more raw vintage than we do, and we regularly submit over 1,000 cards to PSA a month for grading. Furthermore, we are probably one of the top PSA/DNA-authenticated autograph dealers in the hobby. We've get so many items authenticated, that it regularly takes us weeks, not days, before the item can be photographed and listed in our eBay store.
BTW, I love reading everyone's theories on unopened product, especially the ones about investing. Just like any other investment vehicle, some understand it, some don't, and some take it way too seriously.
<< <i>Your conspiracy theories on BBCE and Steve manipulating the market in cahoots with the aggressive Reed sound rather far-fetched based on actual facts, or at least based on market results that are wholly independent and have absolutely little if anything to do with BBCE prices. If anything, Steve has been playing catch up these past 12-24 months. >>
After a long day working on a deal in CA, I settle in back in my hotel room, and find out this thread has turned into a gem!
First, as another mentioned here, Steve is the boss; I'm just an employee. A very knowledgeable and hard-working employee, but an employee nonetheless. I've heard rumors that I own a piece of BBCE, but nothing could be further from the truth. Still just an employee.
With regards to being aggressive when it comes to pricing, I can tell you that for vintage unopened, Steve sets the pricing. I really don't have a say. When it comes to pricing the other items we sell (post-1990 unopened, graded cards, autographed memorabilia), those are the types of products where I have the primary responsibility of determining pricing.
I think the changes BBCE has experienced since Steve hired me are:
- While vintage unopened is what we are best known for, it no longer is the dominant product line at BBCE. No matter where you draw the line between vintage and modern unopened, BBCE has now become the largest dealer of 80s, 90s, and 00s unopened, with a diverse selection of product unmatched by anyone in the world.
- We are constantly on the road buying collections and deals. While Steve still gets out of the office to pursue deals, I will probably spend over 200 days on the road chasing down leads, trying to satisfy all your collecting needs! The amount of sellers that want to work with us, and are willing to wait until we make it to their neck of the woods, is tremendous. We always have a list of 30-40 leads to work off of, and by the time I can put together a buying trip to hit 10-15 sellers, we've already replenished our list of leads. I don't think I've been home for two straight weeks since this time last year.
- Steve lets me buy anything that we can make money on, and that has significantly diversified our product line. In addition to the aforementioned unopened market, we are one of the top sellers of vintage graded singles. Very few dealers can claim they buy more raw vintage than we do, and we regularly submit over 1,000 cards to PSA a month for grading. Furthermore, we are probably one of the top PSA/DNA-authenticated autograph dealers in the hobby. We've get so many items authenticated, that it regularly takes us weeks, not days, before the item can be photographed and listed in our eBay store.
BTW, I love reading everyone's theories on unopened product, especially the ones about investing. Just like any other investment vehicle, some understand it, some don't, and some take it way too seriously. >>
Watch it Reed, you know how Steve feels about you posting here
Seriously, thanks for confirming exactly what many of us have been saying.
I am the board member who recently ripped open one of BBCE boxes of 1986 Topps Football from the sealed case. I did not expect to make my $ back. People have been opening up and grading 1986 Topps Football boxes for decades now and the POP list of 10s is still pretty low. Maybe I'd hit the lottery, but probably not. As someone has mentioned and I;ve calculated, the earnings potential for this box is over $12,000. That's if you have the razor thin chance of pulling all 10's from the SMR Price Guide and added them up…. If you happen to pull some low POP minor stars, then your maximum reward could go even higher.
That being said, I know that perfect box of 10's really DOESN'T exist. But even if you pulled all the major cards in 9's, the SMR combined price is $988… not to mention minor stars with low POP. Still worth the $750.
To me, 1986 Topps Football is very expensive, but has the potential to yield very well so I can justify the price.. There are some unopened boxes that are over priced because they cannot yield very well based on how much the individual cards are currently selling. 1989 Score Football is one to me that is overpriced. At $300, You might as well buy all the rookies and spend less. 1991 Stadium Club is over priced. At over 400 cards in the set, there is no guarantee you would pull a Favre, so why the high price? Even 1984 Topps Football is a little above my price range/reward ratio now.
I looked at unopened like a stock in a company. Sometimes the hype doesn't match their Earnings Potential. 1986 Topps Football is still priced to match it's earning potential.
<< <i>everyone should sell NOW--this market has been going down for some time--yes there are a few items that seem to sell high--but for the most part--
GET OUT NOW!!!!!!
I have been saying this ever since I have been buying vintage unopened the past 20 years
GET OUT NOW and stop the insanity I tell you--NOW!!!!!!! >>
I agree Manny. No one in their right mind collects unopened anyway. The market will be crashing any minute now, but PM me and I'll see if I can help you out.
Btw, while I definitely agree about the Velveeta conspiracy, I think your inclusion of Scott Baio is based on your personal grudge against sharing a name with him. Please let this anger go, it will set you free.
"The woods are lovely, dark and deep. But I have promises to keep, And miles to go before I sleep, And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting: Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
I would encourage people to read up on the history of asset bubbles if you're unfamiliar with it. There are a lot of very interesting articles out there. A lot of the details depend on what type of asset is involved of course. Here's a passage I found particularly relevant to our discussion:
-------------- Most bubbles have their genesis in a kernel of truth. In other words, at the heart of most bubbles is a perfectly sensible story. Consider, for instance, the dot.com bubble. At its center was a reasonable argument that as more and more individuals and businesses gained online access, they would also be buying more goods and services online. The bubble builds as the market provides positive reinforcement to some investors and businesses for irrational or ill-thought out actions. --------------
In our case, a lot of what people like 70ToppsFanatic and Grote say is undeniably true: the declining supply of unopened, etc. There are undeniably true reasons why unopened could and should appreciate.
------------ A critical component of bubbles building is the propagation of the news of the success to other investors in the market, who on hearing the news, also try to partake in the bubble. In the process, they push prices up and provide even more success stories that can be used to attract more investors, thus providing the basis for a self-fulfilling prophecy. In the days of the tulip bulb craze, this would have had to be word of mouth, as successful investors spread the word, with the success being exaggerated in each retelling of the story. -------------
Obviously, this forum is a prime example of all that.
The worst thing you could do as an investment is to get in at any cost. While there is no scientific way of predicting "markets", I have always followed the buy when everyone is selling, sell when everyone is buying approach. Seems like everyone is jumping in to not buy at the next price increase. I am not into this run-up of 70s material. I stayed into buying 80s material, years ago, and have been buying stuff now that I feel is under the radar. People with knowledge in what they collect/buy/follow know when the market is rightly priced or peaking. Several board members and Steve himself have chimed in with their thoughts and observations, and I think people just plain ignore what they say. There is no need for panic. Collect what you like for fun, their are countless options out there.
I would say that the current state of the unopened vintage market is more of a Ponzi scheme than a bubble market. Unopened is meant to be opened and most of it will end up being opened at SOME point, leaving the person who opened it holding the bag (of prime value), since opening it will lose money 90% of the time.
Example;
Person A buys 1980 Topps baseball box for $1,000, sells to B for $1,200, who sells to C for $1,500 who sells to D for $1,700 who opens it and now has $50 worth of baseball cards, etc...
This thread is like when some nutjob calls into a sports talk show and says something stupid like "The Dodgers should trade Clayton Kershaw", and then the hosts and callers spend the entire show explaining why that's a stupid statement.
If some kook wants to sit at home and concoct ridiculous theories and draw attention to himself by publicly announcing his idiotic ideas, why on earth would anybody waste their time arguing with said kook when there's no other person on the planet that would agree with the kook's statements?
Congrats sportscard theory, you've officially entered the fandango-zone. Truly rare company, you should be very proud.
Oh... I didn't realize anyone was paying attention. I figured everyone was too busy listening to Steve and Reed high-five over the insane profits they are most assuredly raking in.
<< <i>I would encourage people to read up on the history of asset bubbles if you're unfamiliar with it. There are a lot of very interesting articles out there. A lot of the details depend on what type of asset is involved of course. Here's a passage I found particularly relevant to our discussion:
-------------- Most bubbles have their genesis in a kernel of truth. In other words, at the heart of most bubbles is a perfectly sensible story. Consider, for instance, the dot.com bubble. At its center was a reasonable argument that as more and more individuals and businesses gained online access, they would also be buying more goods and services online. The bubble builds as the market provides positive reinforcement to some investors and businesses for irrational or ill-thought out actions. --------------
In our case, a lot of what peopople like 70ToppsFanatic and Grote say is undeniably true: the declining supply of unopened, etc. There are undeniably true reasons why unopened could and should appreciate.
------------ A critical component of bubbles building is the propagation of the news of the success to other investors in the market, who on hearing the news, also try to partake in the bubble. In the process, they push prices up and provide even more success stories that can be used to attract more investors, thus providing the basis for a self-fulfilling prophecy. In the days of the tulip bulb craze, this would have had to be word of mouth, as successful investors spread the word, with the success being exaggerated in each retelling of the story. -------------
Obviously, this forum is a prime example of all that. >>
As miniduff alluded to earlier in thus thread, though, this board is just a small part of the unopened collectors market. These discussions are interesting as far as speculation goes, but it is misguided to believe that our conversations and/or projections are bearing any significant impact on the market, either way.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i> ------------ A critical component of bubbles building is the propagation of the news of the success to other investors in the market, who on hearing the news, also try to partake in the bubble. In the process, they push prices up and provide even more success stories that can be used to attract more investors, thus providing the basis for a self-fulfilling prophecy. In the days of the tulip bulb craze, this would have had to be word of mouth, as successful investors spread the word, with the success being exaggerated in each retelling of the story. -------------
Obviously, this forum is a prime example of all that. >>
As miniduff alluded to earlier in thus thread, though, this board is just a small part of the unopened collectors market. These discussions are interesting as far as speculation goes, but it is misguided to believe that our conversations and/or projections are bearing any significant impact on the market, either way. >>
I'm not suggesting discussions here are driving events. Just that they are an example of the kind of news propogation cited in the article I mentioned. There are of course many other mechanisms for such news propogation.
I'm waiting for when my 87 Topps rack cases crack four figures, lol..
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Im calling the intermediate "TOP" in late 1970s early 1980s pack prices at $125 per 1976, $85 per 1977 and $65 per 1978 and $55 per 1979 per BBCE website.
As much as I like unopened, I dont think there is much upside room at these prices for a while or so. >>
I will take the other side of the coin on this and say that in a year prices will be at least 20% higher on those 4 packs you list. Anyway this is easily measured so let's check back on this post with BBCE in a year and see what happens. >>
Love the thread and the debate it has fueled. I will repost my prediction of 20% price appreciation so you know which side I'm on and also add a little rationale for those on the fence of where they land in this debate. Of all the post previous I would pay special attention to the May 7th post by lseecon on page 4 as I agree wholeheartedly with his general opinion. I agree the stock market and economy does drive unopened prices both up and down. I started my unopened collection during the recession as a desire to hold more physical assets at a time of depressed prices. It was a tremendous time to pick up assets.
You know where I think unopened prices are going in the next year. Here's my thoughts on their long term trajectory. I believe the closest comparable to investment grade unopened product is the investment grade wine market. Both are supply/demand driven and both are depleting assets. I.e. Every time you open up a bottle of wine or a cello box there is one less available of that vintage and prices in a vacuum increase with each opening. Of course we then have to factor in the macro economic conditions to see the true price movements.
So what do I think say 1975 Topps unopened cello boxes will do over time? I think they will appreciate similarly to the 1982 Bordeaux investment grade vintage.
So over every 10 year period prices increase significantly.
And what does it look like thru the '08-10 recession when the bubble pops for the top wines? You can see that going thru the recession even if you bought at the very top, holding on for 2 years you would allow your return to profitability.
It's been said before but there has, has, HAS to be some meaningful correlation between the cost of a box/pack and the reasonable potential value of what may be inside.
You would be EXTREMELY fortunate to pull two PSA 9s of the most valuable card out of any one wax box. Doing so would strain reason and be at the uppermost level of reasonable expectation but it is still doable.
Or, conversely, at most, you can have a very slim but reasonable expectation that the contents of the box will equal the vaiue of two PSA 9s of the most valuable card.
So a 1980 Topps Wax Baseball box should never be valued over $700-800.
It should not even matter if it was the last 1980 Topps Wax Box on Earth!
I like to call this the Nikklosian Theorem!
Unfortunately, according to the theorem, 1981 Topps baseball wax boxes should be virtually worthless - which they were not long ago.
Interesting comparison. I think one of the most interesting considerations in trying to identify comparable assets is the notion of "fundamentals." Many collectibles, such as comic books, baseball cards, etc., have no intrinsic value whatsoever. Unlike stocks or commodities like oil, their "fundamentals" rest completely in an emotional attachment present in some segment of the public. Obviously, this is very difficult to quantify. To me, the real challenge lies in separating what degree of demand stems from these "fundamentals" and what degree stems from speculation. The fundamentals will likely never wane, but the speculative portion of demand can wink out of existence in a heartbeat under the right circumstances.
"...how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions...?" -Alan Greenspan
I would propose irrational exuberance can be measured in the unopened market, just as P/E ratios should have been a huge warning of the dot com bubble this quote was referring to. The collectible wine analogy is good, but still incomplete (greater worldwide appeal, larger market, etc.) There is plenty of unopened available with a positive expectation from ripping, while a lot of late 70s-early 80s that have a negative expectation. I have my own calculations to determine this, that are on the conservative side of what to expect from a given box, and I'm sure others do as well (e.g. Nikklos) with a logical correlation of the value of the contents. Negative expectation has driven out those who rip, with the exception of true gamblers trying to beat the odds and get one of the few 'hits' that will pay the price of the box (not unlike some of the modern breaks). Like wine, once the price hits a certain level that drives rippers/drinkers out, the inventory will stabilize and depletion will be minimized.
The current market being driven by investment 'hoarders' rather than collectors or those who correctly saw that unopened was an under-appreciated commodity in the past, gives me pause and keeps me out of the market currently driven by what I consider irrational exuberance. Is there room for the price to rise another 20% in the next year? I don't doubt that is possible, but prices will at least level out if not drop at some point in the not too distant future. To those who got in early before prices exploded, congrats, and to those thinking of entering the market at this point, be cautious. My two cents.
<< <i>Interesting comparison. I think one of the most interesting considerations in trying to identify comparable assets is the notion of "fundamentals." Many collectibles, such as comic books, baseball cards, etc., have no intrinsic value whatsoever. Unlike stocks or commodities like oil, their "fundamentals" rest completely in an emotional attachment present in some segment of the public. Obviously, this is very difficult to quantify. To me, the real challenge lies in separating what degree of demand stems from these "fundamentals" and what degree stems from speculation. The fundamentals will likely never wane, but the speculative portion of demand can wink out of existence in a heartbeat under the right circumstances. >>
If we're going to use that analogy, we should be investing in PM as those are the only items with true intrinsic value. In fact, I think this is where Henry comes in.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
More money went into the stock market in March of 2000 than ever in history. More participants flooded the market than at any time before. Individual investors jockeyed with the big boys and ran prices up at a precipitous rate, all vying to carve out a little piece of the bigger pie.
The Nasdaq hit 5000. And we all know what happened next.
<< <i>More money went into the stock market in March of 2000 than ever in history. More participants flooded the market than at any time before. Individual investors jockeyed with the big boys and ran prices up at a precipitous rate, all vying to carve out a little piece of the bigger pie.
The Nasdaq hit 5000. And we all know what happened next.
Tim, you can't eat PM and they also aren't very useful for making things out of them (e.g. Gold is a very "soft" metal so you can really make tools out of it).
Thankfully most of us do not have "bunker" mentality.
<< <i>More money went into the stock market in March of 2000 than ever in history. More participants flooded the market than at any time before. Individual investors jockeyed with the big boys and ran prices up at a precipitous rate, all vying to carve out a little piece of the bigger pie.
The Nasdaq hit 5000. And we all know what happened next.
Sounds like the Memory Lane Group Break! >>
Big difference. The stock market run-up was being fueled by a lot of people with limited understanding of what the market was all about. For the ML group break I can assure you that quite a bit of experience and knowledge is the underpinning of all our efforts.
<< <i>Big difference. The stock market run-up was being fueled by a lot of people with limited understanding of what the market was all about. For the ML group break I can assure you that quite a bit of experience and knowledge is the underpinning of all our efforts. >>
No doubt.
But you know what is fascinating? Who's going to make out best this month? The whale, the "smart money", the man who has, by all appearances, done ridiculously, outlandishly well for himself. He is selling the top and going into gold!
Chris, you could be making out well, too, if you didn't open everything, lol!!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>Big difference. The stock market run-up was being fueled by a lot of people with limited understanding of what the market was all about. For the ML group break I can assure you that quite a bit of experience and knowledge is the underpinning of all our efforts. >>
No doubt.
But you know what is fascinating? Who's going to make out best this month? The whale, the "smart money", the man who has, by all appearances, done ridiculously, outlandishly well for himself. He is selling the top and going into gold! >>
+1, this is a great time for profit taking for those with the foresight to stash a significant amount. Essentially giving a blank check to those with experience and knowledge sets off alarm bells in my head. I wish those who are participating the best, but have chosen to sit on the sidelines.
It is Henry's prerogative to believe what he wishes. He also travels extensively out of the US and that makes it a bit tricky for him to manage a collection like he amassed. It was a combination of these factors that drove him to sell off now.
I don't quite see as much of a doomsday scenario as Henry forecasted, but there can be little doubt that all the years of piling up massive debts, fed stimulus, low interest rates, etc. has only one logical outcome...BIG TIME INFLATION.
If you were around in the late 70s and early 80s you'll remember the 18% (and higher) mortgage rates. Prices on everything went way up. Salaries too were moving up at huge rates of increase ( companies like AT&T were giving 15%-24% raises in some of those years. Still, those who were "wealthy" still had disposable income to spend. Asset and collectible prices also moved higher in those years. It was mostly relative.
I don't see the total meltdown that Henry predicts. Imports will get much more expensive, but for domestically produced goods, domestic assets, collectibles that are already here, etc. I am expecting things to stay relatively in proportion to each other (just like they did 30-odds years ago).
But for those who really are looking to benefit from where things are going, the trick is to buy now at the current favorable financing rates. Lock in today's rates for the longer term and you will be paying off your obligations with much cheaper dollars in the future. That's where the REAL money is likely to be made IMO.
Dave - in no way was I making a comment regarding Henry's motives for doing what he is doing. I just thought it was interesting as an analogy to bring my hypothesis full circle.
I do believe we are at a top for vintage unopened because I do believe there has to be a meaningful correlation between cost and potential. But I also believe in collecting and people's right to enjoy their hobby as they see fit.
I know I have always found collecting and storing unopened as confounding as most have found my ripping. But if we expect prices of unopened to increase tenfold over the reasonable potential of what may be in a pack, than that industry has to be based on more than one guy's opinion and shrinkwrap.
Sorry all over the place here. Need to rip something!
Comments
Mark
T206 Set - 300/524
<< <i>I am in the opinion that $ wise, the guys on the boards are a small % of the un-opened buyers. However, I wonder how much impact WE have had on the un-opened market by doing all of our group breaks and posts on this board for the last 4 or 5 years?????????
Mark >>
The next time an unopened box goes up that is hotly contested. After it is over do a show of hands how many bid on it. I bet at least 50% or more are on the boards.
<< <i>
<< <i>I am in the opinion that $ wise, the guys on the boards are a small % of the un-opened buyers. However, I wonder how much impact WE have had on the un-opened market by doing all of our group breaks and posts on this board for the last 4 or 5 years?????????
Mark >>
The next time an unopened box goes up that is hotly contested. After it is over do a show of hands how many bid on it. I bet at least 50% or more are on the boards. >>
I am sure many of the guys on the boards do bid on a lot of stuff and buy stuff from Steve but from a $ perspective I believe the guys with the really deep pockets are winning the "good stuff" and setting the new "price point" for the material. Again, just my belief.
Mark
T206 Set - 300/524
<< <i>It reminds me what a stockbroker once told me "when everybody is buying it is time to get out". >>
Your stockbroker was absolutely right. Please PM me with your entire unopened inventory and I'll help you get out.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I am in the opinion that $ wise, the guys on the boards are a small % of the un-opened buyers. However, I wonder how much impact WE have had on the un-opened market by doing all of our group breaks and posts on this board for the last 4 or 5 years?????????
Mark >>
The next time an unopened box goes up that is hotly contested. After it is over do a show of hands how many bid on it. I bet at least 50% or more are on the boards. >>
I am sure many of the guys on the boards do bid on a lot of stuff and buy stuff from Steve but from a $ perspective I believe the guys with the really deep pockets are winning the "good stuff" and setting the new "price point" for the material. Again, just my belief.
Mark >>
Mark is correct. I"d estimate the percentage of bidders from these boards bidding on one of Steve's ebay auctions for a higher end box is 25% at best and likely lower than that.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I am in the opinion that $ wise, the guys on the boards are a small % of the un-opened buyers. However, I wonder how much impact WE have had on the un-opened market by doing all of our group breaks and posts on this board for the last 4 or 5 years?????????
Mark >>
The next time an unopened box goes up that is hotly contested. After it is over do a show of hands how many bid on it. I bet at least 50% or more are on the boards. >>
I am sure many of the guys on the boards do bid on a lot of stuff and buy stuff from Steve but from a $ perspective I believe the guys with the really deep pockets are winning the "good stuff" and setting the new "price point" for the material. Again, just my belief.
Mark >>
Mark is correct. I"d estimate the percentage of bidders from these boards bidding on one of Steve's ebay auctions for a higher end box is 25% at best and likely lower than that. >>
1972 Football
This box had six bidders.
1975 Topps Mini
There were 7 bidders on this one.
1978 Topps
The 1978 had a 11 bidders.
1978 Topps
There were 14 bidders on this one.
I am shocked at how few bidders there are on these vintage boxes.
The late 70's have even more bidders and I am sure some from the board bid on these. My guess of 50% was just a guess. But I feel confident there are people reading this that have bid on all four examples.
<< <i>Just my 2 cents. The prices of unopened material is going to crash hard. This is the only product I know that once you open it you lose 99.9% of the time. >>
And yet manufacturers keep churning out $500+ or $1000+ modern boxes year after year. The lottery mentality is nothing new to this hobby. But, as others have said, not everyone is buying boxes with the intent of opening them.
As far as current price levels... who knows if they will continue to rise, level off, or even decrease. As others have mentioned before, the assumption that people are buying these to open and the supply is always going down... the supply curve probably leveled off a bit as the price curve took off. How many people are buying a 1986T FB box, to use Ben's analogy, to open at $750 compared to when they were $350... probably less in terms of a percentage. The supply isn't going up... but probably isn't dwindling as quickly as some may assume, at least not on higher end stuff.
Clearly the recent trajectory of unopened prices has garnered the segment a lot of attention. Some rushed in as genuine collectors, trying to get their items of interest before they went up even more. Others are flippers, recognizing BBCE prices were at times below market, so they bought and sold either immediately or after sitting on the item a short time. Some are piling in strictly as an investment. It all reminds me a bit of the heady days of the sports card hobby itself booming... then busting... and I don't discount unopened could give back at least some of the gains, although I can't see it collapsing like cards themselves did. Just my guess...
Oh, and sportscardstheory, don't back down one bit. BBCE is not only the hidden hand behind this market, I am pretty sure they are working with the Illuminati, Reptilians, Zionists, Knights Templar, Free Masons, and Scott Baio to cause Velveeta shortages during key sporting events as well. I'm glad someone finally had the courage to say it.
Snorto~
<< <i>
<< <i>Just my 2 cents. The prices of unopened material is going to crash hard. This is the only product I know that once you open it you lose 99.9% of the time. >>
And yet manufacturers keep churning out $500+ or $1000+ modern boxes year after year. The lottery mentality is nothing new to this hobby. But, as others have said, not everyone is buying boxes with the intent of opening them.
As far as current price levels... who knows if they will continue to rise, level off, or even decrease. As others have mentioned before, the assumption that people are buying these to open and the supply is always going down... the supply curve probably leveled off a bit as the price curve took off. How many people are buying a 1986T FB box, to use Ben's analogy, to open at $750 compared to when they were $350... probably less in terms of a percentage. The supply isn't going up... but probably isn't dwindling as quickly as some may assume, at least not on higher end stuff.
Clearly the recent trajectory of unopened prices has garnered the segment a lot of attention. Some rushed in as genuine collectors, trying to get their items of interest before they went up even more. Others are flippers, recognizing BBCE prices were at times below market, so they bought and sold either immediately or after sitting on the item a short time. Some are piling in strictly as an investment. It all reminds me a bit of the heady days of the sports card hobby itself booming... then busting... and I don't discount unopened could give back at least some of the gains, although I can't see it collapsing like cards themselves did. Just my guess...
Oh, and sportscardstheory, don't back down one bit. BBCE is not only the hidden hand behind this market, I am pretty sure they are working with the Illuminati, Reptilians, Zionists, Knights Templar, Free Masons, and Scott Baio to cause Velveeta shortages during key sporting events as well. I'm glad someone finally had the courage to say it.
Snorto~ >>
And Steve was also in cohoots with J Edgar Hoover in plotting the Kennedy Assasinations, Nixon and Watergate, Ollie North and Iran/Contra, etc.
Dave
<< <i>I was using it as an example. Nearly everything on the site seems to be overpriced now. >>
Overpriced based on what metric? Your opinion on what pricing should be for vintage unopened product?
Your conspiracy theories on BBCE and Steve manipulating the market in cahoots with the aggressive Reed sound rather far-fetched based on actual facts, or at least based on market results that are wholly independent and have absolutely little if anything to do with BBCE prices. If anything, Steve has been playing catch up these past 12-24 months.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Forgive the shot across the ego here, but as a group, we really need to get over ourselves. The universe does not revolved around these boards. It kind of reminds me of the old Imus sign off, which I wont repeat here now.
I have used this example more than once on the mini boards. I believe I graded more minis than anyone over the last four years or so and have sold to every registry participant. That said, I can tell you that there are as many active sets off the registry as there are on. I don't know if that is true for all sets, but the point remains that there is a world beyond this site.
ebay id Duffs_Dugout
My Ebay Auctions
<< <i>Your conspiracy theories on BBCE and Steve manipulating the market in cahoots with the aggressive Reed sound rather far-fetched based on actual facts, or at least based on market results that are wholly independent and have absolutely little if anything to do with BBCE prices. If anything, Steve has been playing catch up these past 12-24 months. >>
After a long day working on a deal in CA, I settle in back in my hotel room, and find out this thread has turned into a gem!
First, as another mentioned here, Steve is the boss; I'm just an employee. A very knowledgeable and hard-working employee, but an employee nonetheless. I've heard rumors that I own a piece of BBCE, but nothing could be further from the truth. Still just an employee.
With regards to being aggressive when it comes to pricing, I can tell you that for vintage unopened, Steve sets the pricing. I really don't have a say. When it comes to pricing the other items we sell (post-1990 unopened, graded cards, autographed memorabilia), those are the types of products where I have the primary responsibility of determining pricing.
I think the changes BBCE has experienced since Steve hired me are:
- While vintage unopened is what we are best known for, it no longer is the dominant product line at BBCE. No matter where you draw the line between vintage and modern unopened, BBCE has now become the largest dealer of 80s, 90s, and 00s unopened, with a diverse selection of product unmatched by anyone in the world.
- We are constantly on the road buying collections and deals. While Steve still gets out of the office to pursue deals, I will probably spend over 200 days on the road chasing down leads, trying to satisfy all your collecting needs! The amount of sellers that want to work with us, and are willing to wait until we make it to their neck of the woods, is tremendous. We always have a list of 30-40 leads to work off of, and by the time I can put together a buying trip to hit 10-15 sellers, we've already replenished our list of leads. I don't think I've been home for two straight weeks since this time last year.
- Steve lets me buy anything that we can make money on, and that has significantly diversified our product line. In addition to the aforementioned unopened market, we are one of the top sellers of vintage graded singles. Very few dealers can claim they buy more raw vintage than we do, and we regularly submit over 1,000 cards to PSA a month for grading. Furthermore, we are probably one of the top PSA/DNA-authenticated autograph dealers in the hobby. We've get so many items authenticated, that it regularly takes us weeks, not days, before the item can be photographed and listed in our eBay store.
BTW, I love reading everyone's theories on unopened product, especially the ones about investing. Just like any other investment vehicle, some understand it, some don't, and some take it way too seriously.
Reed Kasaoka
Buyer, Baseball Card Exchange
cell: (808) 372-1974
email: ReedBBCE@gmail.com
website: www.bbce.com
eBay stores: bbcexchange, bbcexchange2, bbcexchange3, bbcexchange4
Snorto~
<< <i>
<< <i>Your conspiracy theories on BBCE and Steve manipulating the market in cahoots with the aggressive Reed sound rather far-fetched based on actual facts, or at least based on market results that are wholly independent and have absolutely little if anything to do with BBCE prices. If anything, Steve has been playing catch up these past 12-24 months. >>
After a long day working on a deal in CA, I settle in back in my hotel room, and find out this thread has turned into a gem!
First, as another mentioned here, Steve is the boss; I'm just an employee. A very knowledgeable and hard-working employee, but an employee nonetheless. I've heard rumors that I own a piece of BBCE, but nothing could be further from the truth. Still just an employee.
With regards to being aggressive when it comes to pricing, I can tell you that for vintage unopened, Steve sets the pricing. I really don't have a say. When it comes to pricing the other items we sell (post-1990 unopened, graded cards, autographed memorabilia), those are the types of products where I have the primary responsibility of determining pricing.
I think the changes BBCE has experienced since Steve hired me are:
- While vintage unopened is what we are best known for, it no longer is the dominant product line at BBCE. No matter where you draw the line between vintage and modern unopened, BBCE has now become the largest dealer of 80s, 90s, and 00s unopened, with a diverse selection of product unmatched by anyone in the world.
- We are constantly on the road buying collections and deals. While Steve still gets out of the office to pursue deals, I will probably spend over 200 days on the road chasing down leads, trying to satisfy all your collecting needs! The amount of sellers that want to work with us, and are willing to wait until we make it to their neck of the woods, is tremendous. We always have a list of 30-40 leads to work off of, and by the time I can put together a buying trip to hit 10-15 sellers, we've already replenished our list of leads. I don't think I've been home for two straight weeks since this time last year.
- Steve lets me buy anything that we can make money on, and that has significantly diversified our product line. In addition to the aforementioned unopened market, we are one of the top sellers of vintage graded singles. Very few dealers can claim they buy more raw vintage than we do, and we regularly submit over 1,000 cards to PSA a month for grading. Furthermore, we are probably one of the top PSA/DNA-authenticated autograph dealers in the hobby. We've get so many items authenticated, that it regularly takes us weeks, not days, before the item can be photographed and listed in our eBay store.
BTW, I love reading everyone's theories on unopened product, especially the ones about investing. Just like any other investment vehicle, some understand it, some don't, and some take it way too seriously. >>
Watch it Reed, you know how Steve feels about you posting here
Seriously, thanks for confirming exactly what many of us have been saying.
Dave
That being said, I know that perfect box of 10's really DOESN'T exist. But even if you pulled all the major cards in 9's, the SMR combined price is $988… not to mention minor stars with low POP. Still worth the $750.
To me, 1986 Topps Football is very expensive, but has the potential to yield very well so I can justify the price.. There are some unopened boxes that are over priced because they cannot yield very well based on how much the individual cards are currently selling. 1989 Score Football is one to me that is overpriced. At $300, You might as well buy all the rookies and spend less. 1991 Stadium Club is over priced. At over 400 cards in the set, there is no guarantee you would pull a Favre, so why the high price?
Even 1984 Topps Football is a little above my price range/reward ratio now.
I looked at unopened like a stock in a company. Sometimes the hype doesn't match their Earnings Potential. 1986 Topps Football is still priced to match it's earning potential.
GET OUT NOW!!!!!!
I have been saying this ever since I have been buying vintage unopened the past 20 years
GET OUT NOW and stop the insanity I tell you--NOW!!!!!!!
<< <i>everyone should sell NOW--this market has been going down for some time--yes there are a few items that seem to sell high--but for the most part--
GET OUT NOW!!!!!!
I have been saying this ever since I have been buying vintage unopened the past 20 years
GET OUT NOW and stop the insanity I tell you--NOW!!!!!!! >>
I agree Manny. No one in their right mind collects unopened anyway. The market will be crashing any minute now, but PM me and I'll see if I can help you out.
Btw, while I definitely agree about the Velveeta conspiracy, I think your inclusion of Scott Baio is based on your personal grudge against sharing a name with him. Please let this anger go, it will set you free.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
the details depend on what type of asset is involved of course. Here's a passage I found particularly relevant to our discussion:
--------------
Most bubbles have their genesis in a kernel of truth. In other words, at the heart of most bubbles is a perfectly sensible story. Consider, for instance, the dot.com bubble. At its center was a reasonable argument that as more and more individuals and businesses gained online access, they would also be buying more goods and services online. The bubble builds as the market provides positive reinforcement to some investors and businesses for irrational or ill-thought out actions.
--------------
In our case, a lot of what people like 70ToppsFanatic and Grote say is undeniably true: the declining supply of unopened, etc. There are undeniably true reasons why unopened could and should appreciate.
------------
A critical component of bubbles building is the propagation of the news of the success to other investors in the market, who on hearing the news, also try to partake in the bubble. In the process, they push prices up and provide even more success stories that can be used to attract more investors, thus providing the basis for a self-fulfilling prophecy. In the days of the tulip bulb craze, this would have had to be word of mouth, as successful investors spread the word, with the success being exaggerated in each retelling of the story.
-------------
Obviously, this forum is a prime example of all that.
I am not into this run-up of 70s material. I stayed into buying 80s material, years ago, and have been buying stuff now that I feel is under the radar. People with knowledge in what they collect/buy/follow know when the market is rightly priced or peaking. Several board members and Steve himself have chimed in with their thoughts and observations, and I think people just plain ignore what they say. There is no need for panic. Collect what you like for fun, their are countless options out there.
Example;
Person A buys 1980 Topps baseball box for $1,000, sells to B for $1,200, who sells to C for $1,500 who sells to D for $1,700 who opens it and now has $50 worth of baseball cards, etc...
If some kook wants to sit at home and concoct ridiculous theories and draw attention to himself by publicly announcing his idiotic ideas, why on earth would anybody waste their time arguing with said kook when there's no other person on the planet that would agree with the kook's statements?
Congrats sportscard theory, you've officially entered the fandango-zone. Truly rare company, you should be very proud.
Lee
<< <i>I would encourage people to read up on the history of asset bubbles if you're unfamiliar with it. There are a lot of very interesting articles out there. A lot of
the details depend on what type of asset is involved of course. Here's a passage I found particularly relevant to our discussion:
--------------
Most bubbles have their genesis in a kernel of truth. In other words, at the heart of most bubbles is a perfectly sensible story. Consider, for instance, the dot.com bubble. At its center was a reasonable argument that as more and more individuals and businesses gained online access, they would also be buying more goods and services online. The bubble builds as the market provides positive reinforcement to some investors and businesses for irrational or ill-thought out actions.
--------------
In our case, a lot of what peopople like 70ToppsFanatic and Grote say is undeniably true: the declining supply of unopened, etc. There are undeniably true reasons why unopened could and should appreciate.
------------
A critical component of bubbles building is the propagation of the news of the success to other investors in the market, who on hearing the news, also try to partake in the bubble. In the process, they push prices up and provide even more success stories that can be used to attract more investors, thus providing the basis for a self-fulfilling prophecy. In the days of the tulip bulb craze, this would have had to be word of mouth, as successful investors spread the word, with the success being exaggerated in each retelling of the story.
-------------
Obviously, this forum is a prime example of all that. >>
As miniduff alluded to earlier in thus thread, though, this board is just a small part of the unopened collectors market. These discussions are interesting as far as speculation goes, but it is misguided to believe that our conversations and/or projections are bearing any significant impact on the market, either way.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>I figured everyone was too busy listening to Steve and Reed high-five over the insane profits they are most assuredly raking in. >>
oh, i can hear them, no doubt. i also heard plenty of folks refer to James Brown as "The Hardest Working Man In Show Business".
give that some thought.
<< <i>
<< <i>I figured everyone was too busy listening to Steve and Reed high-five over the insane profits they are most assuredly raking in. >>
oh, i can hear them, no doubt. i also heard plenty of folks refer to James Brown as "The Hardest Working Man In Show Business".
give that some thought. >>
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
<< <i>
------------
A critical component of bubbles building is the propagation of the news of the success to other investors in the market, who on hearing the news, also try to partake in the bubble. In the process, they push prices up and provide even more success stories that can be used to attract more investors, thus providing the basis for a self-fulfilling prophecy. In the days of the tulip bulb craze, this would have had to be word of mouth, as successful investors spread the word, with the success being exaggerated in each retelling of the story.
-------------
Obviously, this forum is a prime example of all that. >>
As miniduff alluded to earlier in thus thread, though, this board is just a small part of the unopened collectors market. These discussions are interesting as far as speculation goes, but it is misguided to believe that our conversations and/or projections are bearing any significant impact on the market, either way. >>
I'm not suggesting discussions here are driving events. Just that they are an example of the kind of news propogation cited in the article I mentioned. There are of course many other mechanisms for such news propogation.
I can smell your jeolous Sportscardtheory from here. I would be bitter too if my investments were tanking.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I figured everyone was too busy listening to Steve and Reed high-five over the insane profits they are most assuredly raking in. >>
oh, i can hear them, no doubt. i also heard plenty of folks refer to James Brown as "The Hardest Working Man In Show Business".
give that some thought. >>
just trying to add a tangent, Mike.
<< <i>"I figured everyone was too busy listening to Steve and Reed high-five over the insane profits they are most assuredly raking in. "
I can smell your jeolous Sportscardtheory from here. I would be bitter too if my investments were tanking. >>
How did you know I payed $1,000+ for a box from the '80s.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>Im calling the intermediate "TOP" in late 1970s early 1980s pack prices at $125 per 1976, $85 per 1977 and $65 per 1978 and $55 per 1979 per BBCE website.
As much as I like unopened, I dont think there is much upside room at these prices for a while or so.
>>
I will take the other side of the coin on this and say that in a year prices will be at least 20% higher on those 4 packs you list. Anyway this is easily measured so let's check back on this post with BBCE in a year and see what happens. >>
Love the thread and the debate it has fueled. I will repost my prediction of 20% price appreciation so you know which side I'm on and also add a little rationale for those on the fence of where they land in this debate. Of all the post previous I would pay special attention to the May 7th post by lseecon on page 4 as I agree wholeheartedly with his general opinion. I agree the stock market and economy does drive unopened prices both up and down. I started my unopened collection during the recession as a desire to hold more physical assets at a time of depressed prices. It was a tremendous time to pick up assets.
You know where I think unopened prices are going in the next year. Here's my thoughts on their long term trajectory. I believe the closest comparable to investment grade unopened product is the investment grade wine market. Both are supply/demand driven and both are depleting assets. I.e. Every time you open up a bottle of wine or a cello box there is one less available of that vintage and prices in a vacuum increase with each opening. Of course we then have to factor in the macro economic conditions to see the true price movements.
So what do I think say 1975 Topps unopened cello boxes will do over time? I think they will appreciate similarly to the 1982 Bordeaux investment grade vintage.
So over every 10 year period prices increase significantly.
And what does it look like thru the '08-10 recession when the bubble pops for the top wines? You can see that going thru the recession even if you bought at the very top, holding on for 2 years you would allow your return to profitability.
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
You would be EXTREMELY fortunate to pull two PSA 9s of the most valuable card out of any one wax box. Doing so would strain reason and be at the uppermost level of reasonable expectation but it is still doable.
Or, conversely, at most, you can have a very slim but reasonable expectation that the contents of the box will equal the vaiue of two PSA 9s of the most valuable card.
So a 1980 Topps Wax Baseball box should never be valued over $700-800.
It should not even matter if it was the last 1980 Topps Wax Box on Earth!
I like to call this the Nikklosian Theorem!
Unfortunately, according to the theorem, 1981 Topps baseball wax boxes should be virtually worthless - which they were not long ago.
Thank you.
Jmaciu's Collection
I would propose irrational exuberance can be measured in the unopened market, just as P/E ratios should have been a huge warning of the dot com bubble this quote was referring to. The collectible wine analogy is good, but still incomplete (greater worldwide appeal, larger market, etc.) There is plenty of unopened available with a positive expectation from ripping, while a lot of late 70s-early 80s that have a negative expectation. I have my own calculations to determine this, that are on the conservative side of what to expect from a given box, and I'm sure others do as well (e.g. Nikklos) with a logical correlation of the value of the contents. Negative expectation has driven out those who rip, with the exception of true gamblers trying to beat the odds and get one of the few 'hits' that will pay the price of the box (not unlike some of the modern breaks). Like wine, once the price hits a certain level that drives rippers/drinkers out, the inventory will stabilize and depletion will be minimized.
The current market being driven by investment 'hoarders' rather than collectors or those who correctly saw that unopened was an under-appreciated commodity in the past, gives me pause and keeps me out of the market currently driven by what I consider irrational exuberance. Is there room for the price to rise another 20% in the next year? I don't doubt that is possible, but prices will at least level out if not drop at some point in the not too distant future. To those who got in early before prices exploded, congrats, and to those thinking of entering the market at this point, be cautious. My two cents.
<< <i>Interesting comparison. I think one of the most interesting considerations in trying to identify comparable assets is the notion of "fundamentals." Many collectibles, such as comic books, baseball cards, etc., have no intrinsic value whatsoever. Unlike stocks or commodities like oil, their "fundamentals" rest completely in an emotional attachment present in some segment of the public. Obviously, this is very difficult to quantify. To me, the real challenge lies in separating what degree of demand stems from these "fundamentals" and what degree stems from speculation. The fundamentals will likely never wane, but the speculative portion of demand can wink out of existence in a heartbeat under the right circumstances. >>
If we're going to use that analogy, we should be investing in PM as those are the only items with true intrinsic value. In fact, I think this is where Henry comes in.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
The Nasdaq hit 5000. And we all know what happened next.
Sounds like the Memory Lane Group Break!
<< <i>More money went into the stock market in March of 2000 than ever in history. More participants flooded the market than at any time before. Individual investors jockeyed with the big boys and ran prices up at a precipitous rate, all vying to carve out a little piece of the bigger pie.
The Nasdaq hit 5000. And we all know what happened next.
Sounds like the Memory Lane Group Break! >>
Interesting comparison.
Thankfully most of us do not have "bunker" mentality.
Dave
<< <i>More money went into the stock market in March of 2000 than ever in history. More participants flooded the market than at any time before. Individual investors jockeyed with the big boys and ran prices up at a precipitous rate, all vying to carve out a little piece of the bigger pie.
The Nasdaq hit 5000. And we all know what happened next.
Sounds like the Memory Lane Group Break! >>
Big difference. The stock market run-up was being fueled by a lot of people with limited understanding of what the market was all about. For the ML group break I can assure you that quite a bit of experience and knowledge is the underpinning of all our efforts.
Dave
<< <i>Big difference. The stock market run-up was being fueled by a lot of people with limited understanding of what the market was all about. For the ML group break I can assure you that quite a bit of experience and knowledge is the underpinning of all our efforts. >>
No doubt.
But you know what is fascinating? Who's going to make out best this month? The whale, the "smart money", the man who has, by all appearances, done ridiculously, outlandishly well for himself. He is selling the top and going into gold!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>Big difference. The stock market run-up was being fueled by a lot of people with limited understanding of what the market was all about. For the ML group break I can assure you that quite a bit of experience and knowledge is the underpinning of all our efforts. >>
No doubt.
But you know what is fascinating? Who's going to make out best this month? The whale, the "smart money", the man who has, by all appearances, done ridiculously, outlandishly well for himself. He is selling the top and going into gold! >>
+1, this is a great time for profit taking for those with the foresight to stash a significant amount. Essentially giving a blank check to those with experience and knowledge sets off alarm bells in my head. I wish those who are participating the best, but have chosen to sit on the sidelines.
It is Henry's prerogative to believe what he wishes. He also travels extensively out of the US and that makes it a bit tricky for him to
manage a collection like he amassed. It was a combination of these factors that drove him to sell off now.
I don't quite see as much of a doomsday scenario as Henry forecasted, but there can be little doubt that all the years of piling up massive debts, fed stimulus, low interest rates, etc. has only one logical outcome...BIG TIME INFLATION.
If you were around in the late 70s and early 80s you'll remember the 18% (and higher) mortgage rates. Prices on everything went way up. Salaries too were moving up at huge rates of increase ( companies like AT&T were giving 15%-24% raises in some of those years. Still, those who were "wealthy" still had disposable income to spend. Asset and collectible prices also moved higher in those years. It was mostly relative.
I don't see the total meltdown that Henry predicts. Imports will get much more expensive, but for domestically produced goods, domestic assets, collectibles that are already here, etc. I am expecting things to stay relatively in proportion to each other (just like they did 30-odds years ago).
But for those who really are looking to benefit from where things are going, the trick is to buy now at the current favorable financing rates. Lock in today's rates for the longer term and you will be paying off your obligations with much cheaper dollars in the future. That's where the REAL money is likely to be made IMO.
Dave
I do believe we are at a top for vintage unopened because I do believe there has to be a meaningful correlation between cost and potential. But I also believe in collecting and people's right to enjoy their hobby as they see fit.
I know I have always found collecting and storing unopened as confounding as most have found my ripping. But if we expect prices of unopened to increase tenfold over the reasonable potential of what may be in a pack, than that industry has to be based on more than one guy's opinion and shrinkwrap.
Sorry all over the place here. Need to rip something!