As far as the blog, "supporting" charts do not support anything. The author is just another fear mongerer.
There is virtually nothing similar today to 2008, except rhetoric. >>
Nothing similar at all. Just the same old $300 TRILL in otc derivatives held by the largest US banks, which if they had to cash them out would render them insolvent and probably crash the financial system. These same banks are even larger than they were in 2008 with a bigger stranglehold on the economy. They tell us their balance sheets are so much stronger now and they all paid back TARP money which made money for US taxpayers. What's not to like? We should crash the system every 5-6 years so the same good deals for taxpayers could be achieved. It's also not like 2008 because the housing market was <1 year removed from its peak. We're now 7 years past that point and headed into a multi-decade decline. Nope, not like 2008 at all. You could still sell a home for a decent price in my area in 2008.....not today. Energy is a lot cheaper today than in 2008, but as they say, you can't eat oil.
It may not be looking a lot like 2008....but how about October 2007? A year later and things weren't in such good shape. That would target late 2015 to 2016 for the next round of fireworks to begin.
Very volatile stock market in the past year. DOW has dropped over a thousand points a few times. Libor, mortgage securities, gold and silver markets now manipulated and proven that they were. Why not the stock market?
Trading is all done on computers now. Just saying, a lot of conspiracy theories about manipulation that were absurd are coming true. Perhaps the 1000 pt. drops ( in the guise that the drop was caused by the fear of an ebola outbreak by the MSM) are a way of manipulating the retail investor to believe these 1000 point drops are normal so the investor will not panic when the DOW drops and it will return to normal, but one day it won't. Call me crazy but nothing seems too absurd these days. Corruption is not punished today when the DOJ and the criminal banks are in collusion. A couple of billion in fines in return for many more billions in profits from the manipulation and no one goes to jail.
In the past, the Enron Ken Lays went to prison, why not Chase's Jamie Dimond. Dimond just calls the DOJ and offers them a few billion in fines so he won't go to prison. The officials at the DOJ agree because if they don't agree, Wall Street won't offer them a job (with a ten fold salary that they are paid at the DOJ) when they leave the DOJ. The arrogance of the corruption is now wide open for all to see. They truly are untouchable.
Im planning on moving most of ( If not all ) of my money from higher risk to lower risk funds in my portfolio soon. This year has been great and I dont think it will continue to be as profitable.
The stock market is looking for an excuse to sell off 15%, we saw a little hint of it in October, the threat of a black swan on the horizon might be the match that touches off a blaze
A real SHTF black swan's arrival could of course cause much larger declines.
Periodic selloffs of 5-10% with nervous bull recoveries are IMO healthy for continued gains in the stock market (hey, the upcoming bond outpours and continual 401k and other retirement funds gotta flow somewhere)
Metals on the other hand have had much of the risk taken out of them, maybe not all, but are starting to look relatively more attractive for sure, than they were at 1500+ and 35+
A hit to equities will probably be an initial hit to PMs as those freaking out run to cash. Saw it in 08 with metals first to recover. Maybe this time metals are the first to suffer. Maybe it is beginning to look a lot like 08.
<< <i>Latest FED minutes show American consumer debt has reached an all time high of $3.2 Trillion.
Maybe it will be different this time. >>
Does that included student loans? I know that autos are over a T$ and school loans just his 1T$ as well. >>
And what happens when debt implodes? Deflation. Then what happens? All assets decline. Then what? The central banks print more money and all assets go back up. Humankind continues its existence. Nope, wont be different. Same as it ever was.
<< <i>Latest FED minutes show American consumer debt has reached an all time high of $3.2 Trillion.
Maybe it will be different this time. >>
Does that included student loans? I know that autos are over a T$ and school loans just his 1T$ as well. >>
And what happens when debt implodes? Deflation. Then what happens? All assets decline. Then what? The central banks print more money and all assets go back up. Humankind continues its existence. Nope, wont be different. Same as it ever was. >>
There are lots of things that look similar in 2014 as in 2008. Celebrities doing stupid stuff....people scared of viruses....the sun rising and setting every day....conspiracy and manipulation theories ruining cognitive thought.
Hopefully there will be a opportunity for those who maintain liquidity to take advantage of panic. Unfortunately the opportunity to buy stocks at 1.5x book value may only occur every 40-50 years. I won't be here in 40 years...and that's the biggest aifference between then and now is 6 years of our life, which for most of us on thus board represents 15-30% of our remaining lifespan. Sobering, eh?
We don't get to know what the condition of the banking system might be in 2014 - just as we didn't get to know its condition back in 2008 until it started to blow up.
We can estimate what might be going on from the data that we are given. We can speculate. We can trust in the banking system and the bankers. Or not. I don't, but that's just me.
We can believe that the stock market is rising on fundamentals as they were defined when finance was really finance, or we can surmise that the stock market is rising based on behind-the-scenes injections of liquidity (in its many forms) that are designed to promote an atmosphere of prosperity.
That being the case, we also have to consider the reasons why so many people are on food stamps and why the number of good jobs is declining. Regardless of the merits of any arguments (or lack thereof) for raising the minimum wage, the discouraging truth is that more low-pay jobs are replacing the skilled and higher-paid manufacturing jobs that have been exported.
Prosperity - ah, the American Dream. It's true that it still exists if you get yourself educated, trained, work hard and never stop trying. No guarantees. The problem is that the incentives to do those things are being methodically destroyed by a government that has "needs" beyond what's rational or healthy for the rest of us.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i> I won't be here in 40 years...and that's the biggest aifference between then and now is 6 years of our life, which for most of us on thus board represents 15-30% of our remaining lifespan. Sobering, eh? >>
One does not appreciate the true flavor of life until the fallacy of immortality is exposed.
I still think that 2011 was a non-event - both the peak and the blowoff. Non-events. Nothing got fixed in 2008 or 2009 or 2010 or 2011 or 2012 or 2013 or 2014. And here we are.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Actually I think we are in despair. Im hearing the PM bulls pull back on the reins and the stock market guys beating their chests. Relative valuations are showing opportunities.
for stocks, I think we are at "enthusiasm", for real estate "return to the mean", and for bonds, "new paradigm", and for high end art and rare coins, "greed/delusion"
<< <i>I still think that 2011 was a non-event - both the peak and the blowoff. Non-events. Nothing got fixed in 2008 or 2009 or 2010 or 2011 or 2012 or 2013 or 2014. And here we are. >>
Gold and silver have already been repriced higher due to events from 2008-2014. So yes, here we are, with gold and silver 4x higher than a decade ago. All is as it should be.
<< <i>Here's where I think we are with precious metals
for stocks, I think we are at "enthusiasm", for real estate "return to the mean", and for bonds, "new paradigm", and for high end art and rare coins, "delusion" >>
Otherwise I agree with Baleys assessment of other assets.
<< <i>Financially, 2008 and 2014 could not be more different.
By Nov 2008 the stock market was crashing. In 2014 it is making new highs every day. >>
The Oct 2007 peak in the stock market was not far removed from the crash of 2008. That's why 2008 and 2014 are related. The parabola is growing.
This chart of the Dow shows how skewed things have become. +2000 points of "X" on this chart w/o a break. You don't often see P&F's looking like this. Not a cloud in the sky from that perch (ie price is above the clouds). You gotta love the 21,800 bullish projection....sign me up.
I'll go ahead with this graph as well and state the trendline will hold. Silver will not retrace the hypothetical graph exactly as that would require prices to fall below $8. This would translate to a return of only about 5% per year which would indicate extreme underperformance. Since silver is now a mainstream investment alternative it will not underperform to that extent.
I was calling for $14, it hit $15.04. Thats close enough for me to say it has established a bottom. It may very well be at this price in 2 years, but the risk/reward is favorable for outperforming other asset classes.
WTF are you talking about WRM? When silver was around 20 in suggested it needed to hold $18 or it was probably going to 14. Well, it lost 20% of its value. You come on this board talking about some Isiah Shift nonsense. Nonsense, so ridiculous to even you, that you later deleted it. You hold others to absolute precision yet kling to a book of old stories as absolutes?
You are an absolutely fascinating case study of human psychology. Thank you.
I hadnt seen this thread in a month and just read WRMs post. Today I discovered what happens when theology meets science. Thank God priests are not scientists.
While stocks traded a bit lower after Christmas 2008, that was a good time to buy equities. >>
Yeah, the knife was still falling 'til March 09 but in the big scheme of things a Christmas 08 investment would've been a gift that would've kept on giving for six years!
...I would never have guessed the DOW at 18,000 given the information of FF rates near zero for years, pump prices around $2, European and Japanese recessions, imploding commodities, unemployment effectively 11.6% (U6), $8T more in public debt... Despite my disbelief I stayed in the market for most of the time and what a run it has been. I'd guess it'll continue with a couple of hiccups for at least another 22 months....Nov 2016...when the narrative can change on a dime.
<< <i>One aspect that makes 2014 somewhat different from 2008 is that now, more people (investors) conceive that it is possible for a major correction/crisis/collapse to occur in the financial markets, and for the effect to be contagious to other markets. >>
Greed trumps logic in bubble markets. Huge equity drops in 1987 and 2000 did not deter the run up to 2008.
Difference in the next crash is way higher interest rates which the under 40 crowd (and many older) cannot begin to comprehend. >>
When will the next crash be, and how bad will it be (in % crash in the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq)?
Positive BST transactions with Timbuk3, coindeuce, charlottedude.
<< <i>When will the next crash be, and how bad will it be (in % crash in the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq)? >>
Only your FED knows for sure. They are doing their best to postpone it and make it happen elsewhere. The longer they postpone, the bigger the snowball that will come rolling down the hill. Growing debt levels and malinvestments (misallocation of resources) will guarantee it.
Perhaps several years later, but I don't think that was insinuated in the original comment. But even if it's several years after rates rise..thy are still falling now. Lots of thumb whittling to go...
<< <i>When will the next crash be, and how bad will it be (in % crash in the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq)? >>
Only your FED knows for sure. They are doing their best to postpone it and make it happen elsewhere. The longer they postpone, the bigger the snowball that will come rolling down the hill. Growing debt levels and malinvestments (misallocation of resources) will guarantee it. >>
The fed doesn't know when the market will crash...Alan Greenspan sure didn't know. Bernanke didn't know and Yellen doesn't know either. What a vague useless prediction. "The snowball is rolling down the hill...a crash is guaranteed..." Rather than answering my question, you claim the government is controlling the financial markets and they know everything. It just shows that you know nothing-not that the government knows everything. Fear mongering, conservative views, bunker mentalities, and religion will "guarantee" that the precious metals section of this forum stays extremely far right on the political spectrum.
Positive BST transactions with Timbuk3, coindeuce, charlottedude.
<< <i> When will the next crash be, and how bad will it be (in % crash in the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq)? >>
<< <i> Rather than answering my question, you claim the government is controlling the financial markets and they know everything. It just shows that you know nothing-not that the government knows everything. >>
And this shows how naive you are. No one outside of the FED, especially here, is going to be able to tell you when the markets will crash and how far they are going to crash. Best you can do is guess right along with the rest of us. Even the FED cannot pinpoint exactly when and how far but they are in the driver's seat and have the ability to make it happen tomorrow if they so desire. Like I said, my guess is they are postponing it as long as possible. The FED controls the punch bowl. What you get to drink and how much depends on them.
Comments
<< <i>Nearing the end of 2014, does the year continue to look a lot like 2008 to anyone? >>
This former Goldman banker thinks it does
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
In 2008 the stock market was declining most of the year.
Could not be more unlike.
<< <i>The Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500 made new all time highs today.
In 2008 the stock market was declining most of the year.
Could not be more unlike. >>
I would agree that we are much more like 2007 right now than 2008. Soaring equities, while teetering on a bubble of corruption and mismanagement.
<< <i>Buy gold!!!! You will be saved!!!
As far as the blog, "supporting" charts do not support anything. The author is just another fear mongerer.
There is virtually nothing similar today to 2008, except rhetoric. >>
Nothing similar at all. Just the same old $300 TRILL in otc derivatives held by the largest US banks, which if they had to cash them out would render them insolvent and probably crash the financial system. These same banks are even larger than they were in 2008 with a bigger stranglehold on the economy. They tell us their balance sheets are so much stronger now and they all paid back TARP money which made money for US taxpayers. What's not to like? We should crash the system every 5-6 years so the same good deals for taxpayers could be achieved. It's also not like 2008 because the housing market was <1 year removed from its peak. We're now 7 years past that point and headed into a multi-decade decline. Nope, not like 2008 at all. You could still sell a home for a decent price in my area in 2008.....not today. Energy is a lot cheaper today than in 2008, but as they say, you can't eat oil.
It may not be looking a lot like 2008....but how about October 2007? A year later and things weren't in such good shape. That would target late 2015 to 2016 for the next round of fireworks to begin.
Trading is all done on computers now. Just saying, a lot of conspiracy theories about manipulation that were absurd are coming true. Perhaps the 1000 pt. drops ( in the guise that the drop was caused by the fear of an ebola outbreak by the MSM) are a way of manipulating the retail investor to believe these 1000 point drops are normal so the investor will not panic when the DOW drops and it will return to normal, but one day it won't. Call me crazy but nothing seems too absurd these days. Corruption is not punished today when the DOJ and the criminal banks are in collusion. A couple of billion in fines in return for many more billions in profits from the manipulation and no one goes to jail.
In the past, the Enron Ken Lays went to prison, why not Chase's Jamie Dimond. Dimond just calls the DOJ and offers them a few billion in fines so he won't go to prison. The officials at the DOJ agree because if they don't agree, Wall Street won't offer them a job (with a ten fold salary that they are paid at the DOJ) when they leave the DOJ. The arrogance of the corruption is now wide open for all to see. They truly are untouchable.
Box of 20
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
A real SHTF black swan's arrival could of course cause much larger declines.
Periodic selloffs of 5-10% with nervous bull recoveries are IMO healthy for continued gains in the stock market (hey, the upcoming bond outpours and continual 401k and other retirement funds gotta flow somewhere)
Metals on the other hand have had much of the risk taken out of them, maybe not all, but are starting to look relatively more attractive for sure, than they were at 1500+ and 35+
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
In the news today, looks like Australia is going to implement the G20's recommendation of bank depositor bail-ins. Will the rest of the G20 follow suit and put depositors on the hook for bank failure?
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
<< <i>A real SHTF black swan's arrival could of course cause much larger declines. >>
Ferguson MO could be a trigger. Lots of frustrated folks with misdirected anger.
Maybe it will be different this time.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
<< <i>Latest FED minutes show American consumer debt has reached an all time high of $3.2 Trillion.
Maybe it will be different this time.
Does that included student loans? I know that autos are over a T$ and school loans just his 1T$ as well.
<< <i>
<< <i>Latest FED minutes show American consumer debt has reached an all time high of $3.2 Trillion.
Maybe it will be different this time.
Does that included student loans? I know that autos are over a T$ and school loans just his 1T$ as well. >>
And what happens when debt implodes? Deflation. Then what happens? All assets decline. Then what? The central banks print more money and all assets go back up. Humankind continues its existence. Nope, wont be different. Same as it ever was.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Correct.....ya gotta learn to ride the waves!
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Latest FED minutes show American consumer debt has reached an all time high of $3.2 Trillion.
Maybe it will be different this time.
Does that included student loans? I know that autos are over a T$ and school loans just his 1T$ as well. >>
And what happens when debt implodes? Deflation. Then what happens? All assets decline. Then what? The central banks print more money and all assets go back up. Humankind continues its existence. Nope, wont be different. Same as it ever was. >>
Glad you agree with the thread title.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Hopefully there will be a opportunity for those who maintain liquidity to take advantage of panic. Unfortunately the opportunity to buy stocks at 1.5x book value may only occur every 40-50 years. I won't be here in 40 years...and that's the biggest aifference between then and now is 6 years of our life, which for most of us on thus board represents 15-30% of our remaining lifespan. Sobering, eh?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
We can estimate what might be going on from the data that we are given. We can speculate. We can trust in the banking system and the bankers. Or not. I don't, but that's just me.
We can believe that the stock market is rising on fundamentals as they were defined when finance was really finance, or we can surmise that the stock market is rising based on behind-the-scenes injections of liquidity (in its many forms) that are designed to promote an atmosphere of prosperity.
That being the case, we also have to consider the reasons why so many people are on food stamps and why the number of good jobs is declining. Regardless of the merits of any arguments (or lack thereof) for raising the minimum wage, the discouraging truth is that more low-pay jobs are replacing the skilled and higher-paid manufacturing jobs that have been exported.
Prosperity - ah, the American Dream. It's true that it still exists if you get yourself educated, trained, work hard and never stop trying. No guarantees. The problem is that the incentives to do those things are being methodically destroyed by a government that has "needs" beyond what's rational or healthy for the rest of us.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i> I won't be here in 40 years...and that's the biggest aifference between then and now is 6 years of our life, which for most of us on thus board represents 15-30% of our remaining lifespan. Sobering, eh? >>
One does not appreciate the true flavor of life until the fallacy of immortality is exposed.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Yes, a bit more downside.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
I knew it would happen.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
for stocks, I think we are at "enthusiasm", for real estate "return to the mean", and for bonds, "new paradigm", and for high end art and rare coins, "greed/delusion"
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>I still think that 2011 was a non-event - both the peak and the blowoff. Non-events. Nothing got fixed in 2008 or 2009 or 2010 or 2011 or 2012 or 2013 or 2014. And here we are. >>
Gold and silver have already been repriced higher due to events from 2008-2014. So yes, here we are, with gold and silver 4x higher than a decade ago. All is as it should be.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Here's where I think we are with precious metals
for stocks, I think we are at "enthusiasm", for real estate "return to the mean", and for bonds, "new paradigm", and for high end art and rare coins, "delusion" >>
Otherwise I agree with Baleys assessment of other assets.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I knew it would happen.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
By Nov 2008 the stock market was crashing. In 2014 it is making new
highs every day.
In 2008 the Giants won the NFC East...
"Record Leveraged Money short position (disaggregated COT) in TY futures with record commercial long position (Legacy COT)"...
<< <i>Financially, 2008 and 2014 could not be more different.
By Nov 2008 the stock market was crashing. In 2014 it is making new
highs every day. >>
The Oct 2007 peak in the stock market was not far removed from the crash of 2008. That's why 2008 and 2014 are related. The parabola is growing.
This chart of the Dow shows how skewed things have become. +2000 points of "X" on this chart w/o a break. You don't often see P&F's looking like this. Not a cloud in the sky from that perch (ie price is above the clouds).
You gotta love the 21,800 bullish projection....sign me up.
Ye Olde Tower
Still looking a lot like 2007 to me. 2008 is not far away.
<< <i>
I'll go ahead with this graph as well and state the trendline will hold. Silver will not retrace the hypothetical graph exactly as that would require prices to fall below $8. This would translate to a return of only about 5% per year which would indicate extreme underperformance. Since silver is now a mainstream investment alternative it will not underperform to that extent.
I was calling for $14, it hit $15.04. Thats close enough for me to say it has established a bottom. It may very well be at this price in 2 years, but the risk/reward is favorable for outperforming other asset classes.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Like I believe it was Pieces of Me once said (paraphrasing): the data may be objective, but the interpretation is wide open to subjectivity.
Snake handlers do not get bitten because they respect the snake. Leave the chart work to COHODK.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
You don't have to tell me that more than once. It's all yours!
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Snake handlers do not get bitten because they respect the snake. Leave the chart work to COHODK
You don't have to tell me that more than once. It's all yours! >>
Yeah, too many squiggly lines and stuff......
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
You are an absolutely fascinating case study of human psychology. Thank you.
To add: The day I impress you is the day I die.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
<< <i>Fwiw, I'm impressed with Cohodk's silver call of $14. Was also impressed with his call for $1200 gold back in Dec 2012 (or earlier). >>
Good call
I hadnt seen this thread in a month and just read WRMs post. Today I discovered what happens when theology meets science. Thank God priests are not scientists.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas - of 2008 >>
While stocks traded a bit lower after Christmas 2008, that was a good time to buy equities.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas - of 2008 >>
While stocks traded a bit lower after Christmas 2008, that was a good time to buy equities. >>
Yeah, the knife was still falling 'til March 09 but in the big scheme of things a Christmas 08 investment would've been a gift that would've kept on giving for six years!
...I would never have guessed the DOW at 18,000 given the information of FF rates near zero for years, pump prices around $2, European and Japanese recessions, imploding commodities, unemployment effectively 11.6% (U6), $8T more in public debt... Despite my disbelief I stayed in the market for most of the time and what a run it has been. I'd guess it'll continue with a couple of hiccups for at least another 22 months....Nov 2016...when the narrative can change on a dime.
<< <i>
<< <i>One aspect that makes 2014 somewhat different from 2008 is that now, more people (investors) conceive that it is possible for a major correction/crisis/collapse to occur in the financial markets, and for the effect to be contagious to other markets. >>
Greed trumps logic in bubble markets. Huge equity drops in 1987 and 2000 did not deter the run up to 2008.
Difference in the next crash is way higher interest rates which the under 40 crowd (and many older) cannot begin to comprehend. >>
When will the next crash be, and how bad will it be (in % crash in the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq)?
<< <i>When will the next crash be, and how bad will it be (in % crash in the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq)? >>
Only your FED knows for sure. They are doing their best to postpone it and make it happen elsewhere. The longer they postpone, the bigger the snowball that will come rolling down the hill. Growing debt levels and malinvestments (misallocation of resources) will guarantee it.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Generally speaking, don't the stock market crashes happen after the Fed takes away the punchbowl, i.e. after rates begin to rise?
I knew it would happen.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>When will the next crash be, and how bad will it be (in % crash in the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq)? >>
Only your FED knows for sure. They are doing their best to postpone it and make it happen elsewhere. The longer they postpone, the bigger the snowball that will come rolling down the hill. Growing debt levels and malinvestments (misallocation of resources) will guarantee it. >>
The fed doesn't know when the market will crash...Alan Greenspan sure didn't know. Bernanke didn't know and Yellen doesn't know either. What a vague useless prediction. "The snowball is rolling down the hill...a crash is guaranteed..." Rather than answering my question, you claim the government is controlling the financial markets and they know everything. It just shows that you know nothing-not that the government knows everything. Fear mongering, conservative views, bunker mentalities, and religion will "guarantee" that the precious metals section of this forum stays extremely far right on the political spectrum.
<< <i> When will the next crash be, and how bad will it be (in % crash in the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq)? >>
<< <i> Rather than answering my question, you claim the government is controlling the financial markets and they know everything. It just shows that you know nothing-not that the government knows everything. >>
And this shows how naive you are. No one outside of the FED, especially here, is going to be able to tell you when the markets will crash and how far they are going to crash. Best you can do is guess right along with the rest of us. Even the FED cannot pinpoint exactly when and how far but they are in the driver's seat and have the ability to make it happen tomorrow if they so desire. Like I said, my guess is they are postponing it as long as possible. The FED controls the punch bowl. What you get to drink and how much depends on them.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt