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Why 2014 Is Beginning to Look A Lot Like 2008

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  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,850 ✭✭✭✭✭
    black pepper was also once used as currency

    And the history books are replete with accounts of black pepper currency? My education must be sorely lacking because I don't ever remember reading that, but I've read many times about silver and gold being used as money.

    I'm continually amused by the insistence that silver is dirt-common on one hand, and too scarce to use as money on the other hand.

    The main problem, it seems - is that silver or gold can't be fractionally-reserved into existence and that the accounting actually has to account for something real. Gosh, we can't use a money that would restrict the politicians or bankers. Nope! That would be too severe.

    <<<And too honest.>>>
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • mikliamiklia Posts: 1,295 ✭✭✭
    jmski, I wouldn't call those 'on one hand'...'on the other' arguments - those were 2 different points to 2 different topics. for one, i certainly think there's enough silver for it to be a currency again, it's all a matter of how fractionalized you want to get with it and using a 3rd metal (like copper) for smaller transactions. my broader point was that there are many many more alternative stores of wealth available than in the past, and very few people around the world see gold/silver being their only choice anymore. That's one big macro reason why it's not more than $20/oz today.

    on black pepper - there's some great books on the history of the spice trade, def. worth reading. i could have substituted nutmeg, ginger, or cinnamon. the age of exploration was a crazy time. and when comparing to history, also good to see that there's a lot of silver coming to market these days:

    average yearly silver production from 3000 BC - 1900 AD: 8 million ounces / yr

    average production 2010/2013: 800 million ounces/yr

    sadly, going back to a gold/silver standard certainly won't necessitate any restriction on politicians or bankers. if in the 0.000001% chance it happens, those dialed in to the scene will make sure that they're well positioned accordingly first. so, careful what you wish for.
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Examples of commodities that have been used as mediums of exchange include gold, silver, copper, rice, salt, peppercorns, large stones, decorated belts, shells, alcohol, cigarettes, cannabis, candy, etc.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    Wowza, so all the silver disappeared huh?... Pretty amazing ... Maybe one could start there and try to explain it away...
    Ridiculous only 1-2 billion oz of silver?

    Listen or read what u/they r saying, how much and where did all the silver disappear that's been mined in just last ten years maybe 5,6,7+ billion ozs? This all during the time claims being made of only 1 bil oz of silver around?...

    Is this years mined silver vanishing as it is coming out of the ground?
    Possibly thru that black hole that swallowed that missing airplane....
    keceph `anah
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,129 ✭✭✭✭✭
    there is only 1.3 oz per Capita (vs. 15 oz/pC in 1477).

    Population of the Earth today=7,200,000,000
    Population of Earth that couldnt care less about silver=7,000,000,000

    To 97% of the world silver (and fiat) is worthless.

    In 1400, silver was for Kings, not peasants. While we have today more Kings, we have a lot more peasants. The per capita value of silver will most likely continue its trend until the global population reverses its trend.

    Thats why silver is not and will not in your lifetime (and for another 100 generations) be valued as you may want to think.

    It might increase in value relative to other assets, but not as some would lead you to believe.



    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,129 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Again, "Incredible".... >>



    Sounds kind of "dismissive"imageimage
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>To 97% of the world silver (and fiat) is worthless. >>



    My Fiat was worthless. image
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Non-radioactive elements do not disappear or get "used up". Every ounce, every atom of silver ever mined, still exists.

    It might be combined with other elements in compounds, which might be buried in a landfill, bit it's not "gone", just not economically recoverable at current silver values, so while for practical purposes, it's not available for industry or further "consumption", it could be, if prices were higher.

    Likewise, all of everyone's little novelty bullion rounds and bars could be available to industry, at the right price.

    There's plenty of silver, the specific circumstances that would cause the price for it to go nuts in a frenzy of extended long-term demand from average people are IMO highly unlikely.

    More better to try to skim the flow of "premium" for upgraded bullion, than to buy and hold yer breath to get rich from it, I'm starting to think.

    The peddlers of arbitraged "collectibles" and the paper daytraders are making all the money, and the rest of us are just treading water with holding (the bag) the metal

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,823 ✭✭✭✭✭

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,129 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yes, wrm, embrace the incredible. It will give you the warm fuzzies.


    China will do just as the US did-- replace "bad" debt with "good" debt.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • These threads are so foolish. There are so many conspiracy theorists and kooks claiming you should buy precious metals and get out of stocks. These are the same people who have 100 fully loaded guns in their home, have a supply of rabbits and chickens and a mini farm in their basement, and a bunker to protect from radiation in the event of a nuclear war. Even if stocks go down soon-which they might-these people deserve to be mocked. They are the type of people who put tin foil on their heads to communicate with aliens. This forum is home to so many of these people. These people love quoting the founding fathers to claim that America was founded on Christianity and they quote the constitution at every opportunity to claim it means what they say it means.


  • << <i>I speculate that silver is very underpriced. It may, and probably will go lower in the short term, but my bias (opinion) says much higher in the long term. I too use silver as a place to park savings. It rewarded me the last time it peaked and I cashed in and I am confident it will repeat itself, probably on many more occasions. The more the better. >>



    I speculate you have a lot of speculations.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,823 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>These threads are so foolish. There are so many conspiracy theorists and kooks claiming you should buy precious metals and get out of stocks. These are the same people who have 100 fully loaded guns in their home, have a supply of rabbits and chickens and a mini farm in their basement, and a bunker to protect from radiation in the event of a nuclear war. Even if stocks go down soon-which they might-these people deserve to be mocked. They are the type of people who put tin foil on their heads to communicate with aliens. This forum is home to so many of these people. These people love quoting the founding fathers to claim that America was founded on Christianity and they quote the constitution at every opportunity to claim it means what they say it means. >>


    Mock away image

    But keep in mind that only fools are posting to the thread.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,823 ✭✭✭✭✭



    << <i>I speculate you have a lot of speculations. >>


    My speculations on assets are profitable. How's your speculation on people paying off?

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>They are the type of people who put tin foil on their heads to communicate with aliens. >>



    Actually we are just trying to pull up the NCAA games without cable!
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,850 ✭✭✭✭✭
    << They are the type of people who put tin foil on their heads to communicate with aliens. >>

    What trash! Everyone knows that you don't put foil on your head to communicate with aliens. You put foil on your head to make a Faraday cage so that the government can't hear what you're thinking.image
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,992 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>These threads are so foolish. There are so many conspiracy theorists and kooks claiming you should buy precious metals and get out of stocks. These are the same people who have 100 fully loaded guns in their home, have a supply of rabbits and chickens and a mini farm in their basement, and a bunker to protect from radiation in the event of a nuclear war. Even if stocks go down soon-which they might-these people deserve to be mocked. They are the type of people who put tin foil on their heads to communicate with aliens. This forum is home to so many of these people. These people love quoting the founding fathers to claim that America was founded on Christianity and they quote the constitution at every opportunity to claim it means what they say it means. >>



    The American masses have spoken.

    1) 100 fully loaded guns?
    2) Bunker to protect from radiation?
    3) Claim America was founded on Christianity!
    4) Quote the constitution!

    Yes, these are profound statements coming from "coinrollhunter".
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,823 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Threads become foolish when the topic becomes forum members.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,129 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Thats why silver is not and will not in your lifetime (and for another 100 generations) be valued as you may want to think. >>



    Hubert and I still disagree.... >>



    Good. Exploitation is easier when there is disagreement.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,129 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I dont believe I misunderstood anything.

    I also wasnt aware that I needed to comment on every blog linked to this forum. Generally I only comment when I see gross misinformation presented as fact. There was nothing to comment about the blog as I saw no misinformation (I didnt see any information at all), only opinion and assumption.

    My comment about "100 generations" is my opinion of your expectation of silver again becoming as "valuable" as it was in Medieval times. I cannot see any situation in which this would ever be the case. None. However, if you wish to buy silver as an alternative investment class, as I do, and are willing to accept long term returns roughly equal to equities or real estate, with periods of dramatic outperformance, then I believe you will be happy with your decisions.

    If you expect silver to have the same "values" as linked here, then I believe (know), you and generations after you will be quite disappointed. silver "barter" rates during the good old days


    examples from the above link.

    1 cow for 100 grams of silver.
    1 chicken for 1/10 gram of silver.
    a virgin swarm of bees for 25 grams.


    I did just notice that the fine for holding a woman's breast was 39 grams of silver. You could probably still get that today.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,225 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I dont believe I misunderstood anything.

    I also wasnt aware that I needed to comment on every blog linked to this forum. Generally I only comment when I see gross misinformation presented as fact. There was nothing to comment about the blog as I saw no misinformation (I didnt see any information at all), only opinion and assumption.

    My comment about "100 generations" is my opinion of your expectation of silver again becoming as "valuable" as it was in Medieval times. I cannot see any situation in which this would ever be the case. None. However, if you wish to buy silver as an alternative investment class, as I do, and are willing to accept long term returns roughly equal to equities or real estate, with periods of dramatic outperformance, then I believe you will be happy with your decisions.

    If you expect silver to have the same "values" as linked here, then I believe (know), you and generations after you will be quite disappointed. silver "barter" rates during the good old days


    examples from the above link.

    1 cow for 100 grams of silver.
    1 chicken for 1/10 gram of silver.
    a virgin swarm of bees for 25 grams.


    I did just notice that the fine for holding a woman's breast was 39 grams of silver. You could probably still get that today. >>





    I looked at the table and i have an issue with some of the items , for instance

    Binding an innocent ceorl and shaving him like a priest 60s


    not the amount just think it sounds like good clean fun image why fine a guy ?
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,850 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I've been thinking of getting a virgin swarm of bees, but I'm not quite ready for that.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,129 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,129 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If you think 3 ounces of silver will enable you to obtain a cow then I sincerely wish you the best of luck.



    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,823 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The problem with excessive debt - eventually no one wants to fund it.

    But if you're a central bank you can always create money (more sovereign debt) to buy current sovereign debt.

    "These are the most important fixed income instruments of the world's third biggest economy, and the only entity willing to own them is the government that issues them.

    This can only end very badly.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,121 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Don't need Cow(s) - already have enough, until/unless I get more pasture. image

    Don't really need it, but I will take all of the "luck" that I can get - Thank you!

    (Edited to add) P.S. It's interesting that you mention 3 oz Ag for a Cow.... I've been paying my neighbor for "Bull Rental" for the last several years with Silver. In reality, I've been paying less than an ounce of Silver per "Calf".... >>



    The Bull needs a Union or complain about unfair "labor" practices. image He's not getting the minimum wage.
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Ha! I like that one....

    He's "undocumented" - eager and willing to forego Minimum Wage when paid in Silver, Hay, and "Fringe Benefits".... image >>



    ...or French Benefits. image
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,850 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Kyle Bass brings up an interesting point about inflation when he compares it to bond yields. One inflation driver that we don't talk about here on the forum is taxes.

    The cost of price increases and tax increases is additive.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>The problem with excessive debt - eventually no one wants to fund it.

    But if you're a central bank you can always create money (more sovereign debt) to buy current sovereign debt.

    "These are the most important fixed income instruments of the world's third biggest economy, and the only entity willing to own them is the government that issues them.

    This can only end very badly. >>



    Especially when multiplied by the same slovenly monetary policy enjoyed by China, Japan and most of Europe.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,129 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Kyle Bass brings up an interesting point about inflation when he compares it to bond yields. One inflation driver that we don't talk about here on the forum is taxes.

    The cost of price increases and tax increases is additive. >>



    Ask Japan about the effect increased taxes have had on inflation in that country.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Kyle Bass brings up an interesting point about inflation when he compares it to bond yields. One inflation driver that we don't talk about here on the forum is taxes.

    The cost of price increases and tax increases is additive. >>



    Ask Japan about the effect increased taxes have had on inflation in that country. >>



    Real Japanese inflation or bogus numbers as reported by the government?

    With the 25% devaluation of the Yen in the last 18 months, Oil has soared by that percentage or more, as have many imported food items.

    Of course though, Japan is still in a deflationary cycle as defined by the political hacks.

    image
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,823 ✭✭✭✭✭
    guess I can quit playing powerball.

    The $120K silver guru overlooks something very important:
    His claim: "2) Central banks have NO physical Silver to assist in the manipulation of the Silver market but they still have a lot of physical Gold (although much less than they claim)."

    Physical silver is not needed to manipulate the market, paper silver is their weapon and they have an endless supply of it.


    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    Lol, my apologies to the Chambers family, after reading more thoroughly, this Bix guy is a wacko nutjob...
    keceph `anah
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Perhaps my call of "silver should have three zeros behind the current price" is not as crazy as it may seem. For those of you who actually read my 4th Qtr PM Report some of this information will be review. I had NOT seen this article when I wrote that report (I just found this today) - we just happened to reach a similar conclusion, through a different route....

    .... $120,000 per oz of SILVER!

    Cheers, >>



    Fourteen exclamation points make the argument for a silver skyrocket very convincing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    (wake me up at blast-off)

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭
    $120,000 silver may happen sometime in the future, but the ounce of silver will still buy the same dinner at Denny's that it does now.
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>$120,000 silver may happen sometime in the future, but the ounce of silver will still buy the same dinner at Denny's that it does now. >>



    Golly! will it still take about an hour of reasonably easy labor to earn a $120,000 ounce or a full belly? Will we live in a $3,600,000,000 house?

    edit: by "we", I obviously mean our distant descendants, as it's highly unlikely any of those things will be those prices in our or our children's or grandchildren's lifetimes.

    Think they will? I'll bet you $1000 they won't image

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>$120,000 silver may happen sometime in the future, but the ounce of silver will still buy the same dinner at Denny's that it does now. >>



    Golly! will it still take about an hour of reasonably easy labor to earn a $120,000 ounce or a full belly? Will we live in a $3,600,000,000 house? >>



    I prefer the $10,000,000,000 yacht. image
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,129 ✭✭✭✭✭
    YES YES YES!!!!!!!!

    With this roll of silver dimes in my desk I will be able to rule the world!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Maybe I should get another roll while silver is still the cheapest thing on the planet?????!!!!!

    I'll be able to buy 100 cows and a million chickens!!!!!!!!!!!



    !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    WHOO HOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



    Maybe I had too much coffee this morning?
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,225 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>$120,000 silver may happen sometime in the future, but the ounce of silver will still buy the same dinner at Denny's that it does now. >>



    Golly! will it still take about an hour of reasonably easy labor to earn a $120,000 ounce or a full belly? Will we live in a $3,600,000,000 house? >>



    I prefer the $10,000,000,000 yacht. image >>




    Your future yacht will be priced in gold backed yuan not dollars image
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    we hear very clearly the "information" that you think this, and that you sincerely believe this prediction of the future price of silver relative to most everything else.

    But this does not make your opinion of the future, itself, "information". It remains opinion unless and until it becomes "fact" in the past of the future.

    The "information" supporting your opinion is not new nor novel, those facts and interpretations have been around a long long time.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    All that "info" is a Linus blanket for a position bought at $40+ silver, with sell the house money...
    keceph `anah
  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Ford Focus currently "costs" 1000 ounces of silver, it is entirely possible (and I would suggest likely) that you may someday be able to "buy" one for 100, 10, or even a single ounce of silver >>



    Thinking about this for a moment. Silver was $1 an ounce in the early 1960's and a decent new auto was about $2500 so the ratio was 2500 oz to 1. When silver approached $50 in 1979 or 1980, a decent car was $8000 so had you picked the market top, your ratio would have been 160 oz to 1 car. At the current $20 and $30k for the car, we are at a 1500 to 1 ratio.

    Remember, cars contain a lot of steel and a bit of platinum and I am sure silver and gold in the circuitry welds. I can possibly (but unlikely), see a 100 to 1 ratio in an extreme market situation, but that would be it. 10 to 1 and 1 to 1, forget about it.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,129 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Maybe I had too much coffee this morning? >>



    Nope. I received exactly the response that I expected.

    You guys can joke about this all that you want, and that's fine with me. My purpose is sincere and genuine - to share the knowledge that silver is, indeed, currently underpriced. Just because silver is underpriced does not mean that everything else is also underpriced, and that provides opportunity. While it is true that a new Ford Focus currently "costs" 1000 ounces of silver, it is entirely possible (and I would suggest likely) that you may someday be able to "buy" one for 100, 10, or even a single ounce of silver. It is also entirely possible (and I would suggest likely) that silver will be priced higher than gold at some point in the near future.

    It's clear to me that the majority of this board do not care to hear this information - "as you wish".... >>



    Sweet!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I'll be able to buy a fleet of cars. Dude, with all due respect, you are insane. Only the insane would repeat the same nonsense and expect a different response. You will never buy a new car for a generic ounce of silver. Never. I know this because just the people on this board would be able to buy a million cars.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭
    <Neither does Hubert Moolman, Richard Russell, David Morgan, Ted Butler>

    I would not consider this good company. The same could be said for 98% of "newsletter" writers IMO.

    MJ
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,850 ✭✭✭✭✭
    <<The cost of price increases and tax increases is additive. >>

    Ask Japan about the effect increased taxes have had on inflation in that country

    I didn't say that increased taxes had any effect on inflation. What I said is that price increases and tax increases are basically the same thing, and that they are additive.

    Taxes are a tax.

    Obamacare is a tax.

    Inflation is a tax.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    getting out of bed is a tax

    putting up with BS at work is a tax

    putting up with BS at home is a tax

    putting up with traffic, lines at stores, paying vendors their markup, paying service people to fix broken stuff is a tax

    If I could find a better package deal, I'd move there in a heartbeat.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Nearing the end of 2014, does the year continue to look a lot like 2008 to anyone?

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Nearing the end of 2014, does the year continue to look a lot like 2008 to anyone? >>



    No...more like 1955 Leningrad.
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Nearing the end of 2014, does the year continue to look a lot like 2008 to anyone? >>



    No...more like 1955 Leningrad. >>



    Okay, I had to type that into my search-o-meter. I got a dozen or so LIFE images of Americans on vacation in Leningrad.
    image

    But when I typed in 1955 Stalingrad I got these images...
    image
  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Nearing the end of 2014, does the year continue to look a lot like 2008 to anyone? >>



    No...more like 1955 Leningrad. >>



    Okay, I had to type that into my search-o-meter. I got a dozen or so LIFE images of Americans on vacation in Leningrad.
    image

    But when I typed in 1955 Stalingrad I got these images...
    image >>




    Precisely.
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