Why 2014 Is Beginning to Look A Lot Like 2008

derryb

The similarities are stacking up

Don't drink the "economic recovery" kool-aid without at least doing your own research.

perkdog

Im ready to secure my Deffered comp funds in low low low risk stuff, Im like litterally $900 away from my goal number before I do it.

Im completely torn on whether I wait and try and reach that goal or just lock it down now.

Timbuk3

Interesting information, thanks
for sharing !!!

pf70collector

I''ve been out of the market since 2011. Only 10% in now. I missed a lot of gains, but now I am more afraid to enter the market, though have been tempted many times. They say don't fight the fed but it is an obvious bubble. All that free money from the fed has to go somewhere.

derryb

The next crisis will be a currency crisis

cohodk

Buy gold!!!! You will be saved!!!

As far as the blog, "supporting" charts do not support anything. The author is just another fear mongerer.

There is virtually nothing similar today to 2008, except rhetoric.

derryb

<< <i>Buy gold!!!! You will be saved!!!

As far as the blog, "supporting" charts do not support anything. The author is just another fear mongerer.

There is virtually nothing similar today to 2008, except rhetoric. >>

roadrunner

The one BIG thing that is virtually identical from 2008 to 2014 is the $1.1 QUAD in otc derivatives that are still marked to model. Those are still out there. No downsizing or netting was accomplished over the past 5 years. The Dodd-Frank act was meant to better regulate these but the bankers and their lobbyists have gutted all those bills. We went another 4-5 years with nothing new going wrong so these must all be ok. Though it did take a FED infusion into world markets of approx $15-$20 TRILL to stem the tide of the last derivative's bust. The TBTF US banks are as big or bigger than they were in 2008 and have more market clout than ever. In 2008 they only had $850 BILL in FED reserves to gamble with.....now they have $3.5 TRILLION. They have to love that. The more I think about it, things aren't so much like 2008 in the financial sector....they've gotten a lot more skewed. Interest rate swaps never got stressed during the 2008 crisis. It was the much smaller pool of CDS and MBS that caused all the hoopla (those make up only 20% of all otc derivatives). Approx. $35-$40 TRILL in CDS/MBS derivatives got wiped out (an approx 50% failure or payout rate). What happens when that day comes when a portion (or all) of the 4X larger pool of interest rate swaps fail to perform? But those "can't fail" right? Just like the MBS and CDS couldn't fail (ie the FED assured us they had it all under control).

bidask

<< <i>Buy gold!!!! You will be saved!!!

As far as the blog, "supporting" charts do not support anything. The author is just another fear mongerer.

There is virtually nothing similar today to 2008, except rhetoric. >>

I agree with you.

A couple things. Dodd Frank fixed it that banks cannot leverage
(like up to 30 or 40 to 1 in 2008) anymore.

Bank balance sheets are much better than in 2008.

Margin buying has surpassed peak 2007 levels by over 10%. That's an omen for a market correction but not a crash.

roadrunner

<< <i> A couple things. Dodd Frank fixed it that banks cannot leverage
(like up to 30 or 40 to 1 in 2008) anymore.

Bank balance sheets are much better than in 2008.

Margin buying has surpassed peak 2007 levels by over 10%. That's an omen for a market correction but not a crash. >>




Well tell that to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). They still show the big 5 US (TBTF/TBTJ) banks with $50-$70 TRILL each in otc derivatives. So you're saying those positions aren't leveraged around 30-1?
What, those guys have $5 TRILL or more in "liquid" tier 1 assets to compensate? How can one's balance sheet be good when you have a $50 TRILL liability off the balance sheet that could bankrupt you if only 1-3% of your
derivatives fail? What if your counter party fails? Even if they can't leverage up 30-1 to 50-1 going forward, they still have all those legacy "assets" leveraged to the 2008 levels. Dodd-Frank can state whatever it wants, the
big banks, USTreasury, and FED determine what the "board game" rules are. Financial laws are meant to be "legally" loop-holed and circumvented by the big boyz. They only get enforced on the smaller players. Next you'll be
telling me that the CFTC enforces the commodity trading laws such as position limits on JPM, GS, Citi, MS, and BoA to the "full extent" of the law.

OPA

I totally agree that a correction of 10%-15% is overdue and would be healthy. However, some conspiracy advocates are predicting a crash similar to 2008. Of course they've been predicting doom and gloom since 2008.

VanHalen

<< <i>...Though it did take a FED infusion into world markets of approx $15-$20 TRILL to stem the tide of the last derivative's bust. The TBTF US banks are as big or bigger than they were in 2008 and have more market clout than ever. In 2008 they only had $850 BILL in FED reserves to gamble with.....now they have $3.5 TRILLION. They have to love that. The more I think about it, things aren't so much like 2008 in the financial sector....they've gotten a lot more skewed... >>



I extracted part of RR's comment above.

The Fed stands ready to infuse another $15-$20 trillion USD "when" needed. There is no "if" about it. I believe they can get away with it at least one more time and most in D.C. and on Wall Street are in agreement with that by their actions and behaviors. They are not clueless boobs. They have their wallets open wide. They run the show. It will likely be a decade, or even two decades, before most see the horizon for what it is. In the captain's chair is The Fed and they are flying by instruments alone. Right now their artificial horizon reveals a slight loss in altitude but a little more throttle with increase our rate of climb, or is decent? No matter, more throttle it shall be.........

derryb

The FED is using every trick in its book to get the consumer to spend money he doesn't have. Sound familiar? The only thing different this time is that some of those consumers are a wee bit smarter in that they realize their employment is not as secure as it once was. Face it, most people are willing to go into debt because they believe future earnings will allow them to liquidate it, not because they believe they will not have to repay it.

The only tool the FED has left is to pump more money. Bank balance sheets look "better" than 2008 for two reasons only:
(1) Accounting rule changes allow banks not to show the true value of their bad assets.
(2) The FED is absorbing excess bad debt for them (student loans are next).

roadrunner

This guy is saying the exact same thing I mentioned above....only better.

Yeah, that article is on a doom and gloom "crash" site. Big deal. Show me where any of those stated numbers are bogus.

Plenty of high-powered leverage in those bank numbers....and nowhere near enough in assets to back those bets. Forget the 50-1 leverage from back in 2008....Goldman Sachs is running over 400-1 leverage today. Dodd-Frank
who? But there are those who say debt and derivatives don't matter as they are just "book keeping" entries. Change the book and everything is fixed....just like in 2008. Spare the book....spoil the banker.

But look at the bright side. Fannie and Freddie, GM, and AIG all "made money" for the American taxpayer following the 2008 crisis. The balance sheets don't lie

cohodk

<< <i>

<< <i>Buy gold!!!! You will be saved!!!

As far as the blog, "supporting" charts do not support anything. The author is just another fear mongerer.

There is virtually nothing similar today to 2008, except rhetoric. >>



>>



My point proven.

Or maybe we should expect silver to lose 50% like it did in 2008? Or maybe we should get ready to load up on stocks and reap returns upwards of 1000%?

derryb

Here's a novel idea: instead of coming across as a bully with the name calling and "everyone who disagrees with me is an idiot" attitude how about you attempt to make your case with some meaningful discussion. Right or wrong, at least each of the "fearmongering" authors you so violently disagree with goes to the trouble to build their case. Build yours or just move on.

Steve27

I don't see the parallels; all I see is a DJIA ready for a correction. GDP growth has been at best anemic for the last half-dozen years, and I don't see that changing anytime soon. Had there been a large run-up, I might buy into the idea of another crash. Additionally, I haven't heard anything in the news about Greece, Cypress, Spain, Italy, etc. potentially defaulting on their sovereign debt. Thus, my conclusion is the global economy is slowly stabilizing as well.

While there are still too many unemployed/underemployed people in this country. Slow growth tends to be healthy growth, and I expect it to continue for the foreseeable future.

cohodk

Are the cool aid drinkers the ones who think the USA is doomed and only PMs will save them?

All you have to do is read the article and see that the author uses charts thats are inappropriate to support his claim. Was similarities does he support to 2008? None. And as such the author is writing nothing more than propaganda.

If you review my posts over the years I believe you will see hundreds of exampkes of original thought supported by charts and factual databases.

I applaud the authors attempt at research but he should try to build a story around fact rather than build facts around a story.

I imagine my debunking if myth is growing a bit tiresome after the last 4 years but just consider this idea...conspiracy theory can only exist to those who are arrogant (thinking they know more than everyone else) or the naive, or a combination of both. Frankly I don't think anyone on this board is either, so i will continue to debunk myth and provide logical alternative ideas.

If this hurts your feelings then i offer an apology, but I will not stop calling a spade a spade.

derryb

nothing at all wrong with calling a spade a spade, but what is obvious to you is not always obvious to others. Your arguments are always enlightening, when you take the time to make them. When I throw an opinion out there and you say "hogwash," tell us why.

Note that I do not always agree with the opinion of others, but I do not let it prevent me from presenting it for discussion.

Your attitude that anything you disagree with is "conspiracy theory" says it all.

jmski52

Nobody ever acknowledges that the trashing of long-established FASB accounting rules for banks and other large enterprises in 2008 constitutes a big problem.

And some folks seem to think that the debt load (plus fiscal overspending) won't ever choke off the entire economy, but I do.

And as roadrunner always points out, the derivatives mess has never been addressed, other than to change the books from $1.4 Quad to $700 Trillion with the swoop of a pen.

If you think that these shenanigans won't ever matter, and if you don't think that gold is one of the few ways to step aside from the craziness of having money creation continually pump up the real estate market and stock market - then GO FOR IT! Leverage up! Make a million. Or so.

But don't try to tell me that the risk is gone, and that it can't happen here. It's not 1960 anymore. And many of the protections have been methodically removed.

Baley

One aspect that makes 2014 somewhat different from 2008 is that now, more people (investors) conceive that it is possible for a major correction/crisis/collapse to occur in the financial markets, and for the effect to be contagious to other markets. Fewer people are in denial that this occurs periodically, and more people are "ready" to take action at the first whiff of trouble. In a sense, the stock market has climbed this "wall of worry" since 2009. A correction is due (perhaps overdue), but this will not signal the end of capitalism, as much as another long-term buying opportunity.

Folks with a long-term view welcomed the corrections in the housing and stock markets as a chance to get in, one that they thought was perhaps gone forever ("it's too high, I'm priced out of the market") Well, they got another chance at housing, stocks, metals and other commodities, etc. And now they're higher again, and maybe ready to correct. The asset allocation model has folks trimming overperforming assets and reinvesting in underperforming assets.

I've increased cash for the past year or so, waiting for sale prices in my chosen investments to return. Will this year or next be the Sale of the Century?

Hope so!

another good link about market psychology

jmski52

Baley, did you ever play football or basketball? You know what a good "fake" is, don't you? We'll see some really good fakes before we see any real bargains.

VanHalen

<< <i>One aspect that makes 2014 somewhat different from 2008 is that now, more people (investors) conceive that it is possible for a major correction/crisis/collapse to occur in the financial markets, and for the effect to be contagious to other markets. Fewer people are in denial that this occurs periodically, and more people are "ready" to take action at the first whiff of trouble......I've increased cash for the past year or so, waiting for sale prices in my chosen investments to return. Will this year or next be the Sale of the Century?

>>



Good points above and many are now aware that their losses can be socialized while their profits can be privatized. That may be more of the problem than the solution with Wall Street gambling with the U.S. taxpayers money. None of us want to see the U.S. collapse (I hope anyway!). We do need changes and accountability in our financial services sector. This "industry" now runs the nation and that's not good for our long-term outlook.

derryb

<< <i>Your post, since you had to bring "conspiracy theory" into the discussion, prompted me to do more study, so I did a search for "conspricay theory arrogance". This article pretty much sums up my thoughts on "conspiracy theories":

http://www.trueactivist.com/in-defence-of-conspiracy-theories/">... I argue that many ‘conspiracy theories’ are perfectly in line with this spirit & that it is their rebuffers who are the ones adhering to a blind belief system. >>


The NSA made your linky no worky.

Expect any opinion that he disagrees with to be labeled "conspiracy theory." It's normal.

derryb

David Stockman: Fearmonger or former Reagan budget director who might just know what he is talking about?

"the auto sector has rebounded smartly, but the catalyst there is not hard to spot either—namely, the re-eruption of auto debt and especially of the sub-prime kind."

"The worst thing is that Yellenomics is just getting started because the whole crony capitalist dystopia that has become America can not function for more than a few days without another dose of its deadly monetary heroin."

MGLICKER

<< <i>One aspect that makes 2014 somewhat different from 2008 is that now, more people (investors) conceive that it is possible for a major correction/crisis/collapse to occur in the financial markets, and for the effect to be contagious to other markets. >>



Greed trumps logic in bubble markets. Huge equity drops in 1987 and 2000 did not deter the run up to 2008.

Difference in the next crash is way higher interest rates which the under 40 crowd (and many older) cannot begin to comprehend.

derryb

"The National Debt has risen from $9.7 trillion to $17.5 trillion, an 80% increase in five and half years. We continue to add $2.8 billion a day to the National debt. The total unfunded liabilities of the Federal government for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, government pensions and now Obamacare exceeds $200 trillion and is mathematically impossible to honor. Corporate debt stands at an all-time high. Margin debt is at record levels, as faith in the Federal Reserve’s ability to levitate the stock market borders on delusional. Consumer debt has reached new heights, as the government doles out subprime auto loans to deadbeats and subprime student loans to future University of Phoenix Einsteins. Global debt has surged by 40% since 2008 to over $100 trillion, as central bankers have attempted to cure a disease caused by debt with more debt." - Jim Quinn

jmski52

"Fellow Conspirators, lend me your theories.............."


Look, you don't have to be too brilliant to know that something's wrong with one party "poofing something into existence" and then using it as a vehicle to control the workflow of others. Can you say "fiat"?

That's the reality - it's not a conspiracy, and it's not a theory. Don't get me started on taxes and entitlements.

Baley

"The Truth Is Out There"... and the past and present are way more complicated than can be described in any book of words and charts.

The future?
We obviously envy anyone who knows the future as fact, yet wonder why they bother spending the time to peck out words in obscure blogs rather than run the world themselves as profit prophets

Opinions about relative probabilities of certain events, and the relative probable extent of their effects?
Now that's some interesting speculation.

Any market price or value that doubles in less than about 5 years is very likely to correct before advancing higher
Metals and real estate have digested their gains after peaking and crashing, US stocks and bonds are due for another fall after their big fall and run-up, and emerging markets are all over the map (get it?)
However, there is still trillions of cash on the sidelines in individual and corporate accounts, and people in the aggregate are still chasing some kind of yield.

So, wise sages, what to do, what to do? Say someone buys the whole conspiracy kit and kaboodle, then what? sell the whole portfolio, buy a pile of gold and MREs and ammo?
Or, take a little profit in asset classes that have done well, redistribute some in underperformers, look for a new investment or two, and increase cash a bit, just in case?

jmski52

what to do, what to do? Say someone buys the whole conspiracy kit and kaboodle, then what? sell the whole portfolio, buy a pile of gold and MREs and ammo?
Or, take a little profit in asset classes that have done well, redistribute some in underperformers, look for a new investment or two, and increase cash a bit, just in case?

Don't buy bonds, unless you think that the government can perform on its obligations across the board. Other than that, either of the above is probably as good as anything else.

JCMhouston

In 2008, immediately after the crash, I started rearranging my investments. I had sold all the mutual funds for a loss of almost 20% during the crash. Beginning in December that year I started buying and by May 2009 was fully invested, things like Chevron @ $66/ GE @ $8/ Unilever/Total/Microsoft/Intel etc. Since then we are up a little over 300%, I've taken some profits in non-core holdings and the main portfolio now has a dividend yield of over 6% on my cost.

With the sales of non-core stocks I'm currently at about 26% cash sitting on the sidelines, I hope the doom and gloom folks are right so I can buy more of my core stocks. If they say it long enough they are bound to be right eventually, aren't they?

I have no idea what the future holds, and I'm pretty sure no one else does either. I have found that a good strategy is to sell whatever the Goldman Sack and the JP Morgue tell their clients to buy, and buy whatever they say to sell.

cohodk

<< <i>David Stockman: Fearmonger or former Reagan budget director who might just know what he is talking about?

"the auto sector has rebounded smartly, but the catalyst there is not hard to spot either—namely, the re-eruption of auto debt and especially of the sub-prime kind."

"The worst thing is that Yellenomics is just getting started because the whole crony capitalist dystopia that has become America can not function for more than a few days without another dose of its deadly monetary heroin." >>



If the authors of these blogs would refrain from phrases like "crony capitalist dystopia" and "deadly monetary heroin", I, for one, would place much more credibility to their concerns, ideas and opinions.


The auto industry has rebounded because the average age of a car is approaching 12 years old. Its called a replacement cycle. And after the cycle is complete there will be another lull in automobile manufacturing. No conspiracy theory, just the natural order. Economics is much more simple than many make it out to be.

cohodk

When I post my honest opinions and invite discussion, you either ignore these opinions (example - "Moonshot" thread) or dismiss them as "conspriacy theory"


The discussion would be pretty boring if everyone just talked about how we are all doomed, wouldnt it? The same fears have been rehashed a million times over the last 4 years. In glad we have a new "banker suicide" theory to discuss.

See my post above for my opinion of words such as "moonshot". I would really respect Schiff if he said in 2002 to buy silver at $4 because of the coming "moonshot" and then told everyone to sell it at $45. But instead he just kept preaching the same old BS. Someone who says just "buy buy buy" and never "sell sell sell" has very little credibility, IMVHO.

derryb

Ben, is that you?

tincup

<< <i>Ben, is that you? >>

tincup

I'm going to make up a new batch of Kool-aid today... sure is good stuff.

OPA

<< <i>I'm going to make up a new batch of Kool-aid today... sure is good stuff. >>



You must really like that stuff

cohodk

And anecdotally, along a 100 mile stretch of a major highway near me there are no less than a dozen car dealerships being built and/or expanded. There are also close to a dozen new housing developments being built. And at the end if that road in a major city, several new high-rise buildings are being erected.

So yeah, maybe it is like 2008.

derryb

that's about how many new car dealerships remain shuttered in Jax, FL since 2008. Things have since improved greatly - one of them reopened as a welding school.

gypsylea

<< <i>that's about how many new car dealerships remain shuttered in Jax, FL since 2008. Things have since improved greatly - one of them reopened as a welding school. >>



The end must be near. I live near Knoxville, TN and a few weeks ago there was an announcement that we would soon be getting a new Maserati dealership. If that's not a sign of a top.....

fishcooker

Student loans gotta be spent on something...

VanHalen

We have a society built on debt. You gotta have it all right now and the way to do it is through more debt. It's so conditioned in the American psyche most just assume it's a normal and acceptable way to live. U.S. media and marketing have us convinced we can't live without "all the best - all the time".

My father was born on a Kansas farm in 1924 and grew up dirt poor in a two-room house with no electricity or running water. He served in Europe in WWII and came home in 1946. He went to college on the original GI Bill and ended up in very good jobs. He has passed on now but was a person who swore off all debt except a reasonable home mortgage. My childhood was comfortable and conservative, while many of our neighbors had new cars, 25" console color TVs, huge microwave ovens, and newfangled dishwashers, and fancy vacations we had none of those things.

Those who use debt wisely are few and far between. Be careful lest you become the slave to the creditor.

cohodk

Absolutely Van Halen, which is why 2014 is nothing like 2008. Then we had people taking on 10-20x leverage ($50k income to buy $500,000-1 million houses) to speculate on real estate. The banks were generating this debt. We are now experiencing nothing to this magnitude in any asset class. (Someone mention FED debt now).

In 2008 all assets were moving higher. Whats was left to go up? Today real estate, PMs and other commodities, even the stock market are relatively more affordable than in 2008.

roadrunner

<< <i>And anecdotally, along a 100 mile stretch of a major highway near me there are no less than a dozen car dealerships being built and/or expanded. There are also close to a dozen new housing developments being built. And at the end if that road in a major city, several new high-rise buildings are being erected. So yeah, maybe it is like 2008. >>



This has to be highly dependent on where one lives. Some areas of the nation that never got overly heated in 2003-2008 haven't suffered as much as could be growing strongly today. A 25 mile radius from my home is still in decline with car dealerships, malls, and restaurants going under one by one. Yes, some brave new spirits come in to try and make their dream a go. But, I've seen more of those fail than succeed in the past 5 years as well. This includes major chain restaurants that just can't keep afloat . The 2nd Pizza Hut in my 10 mile area just closed...now down to just 16 locations left in the state. I'd have to drive 30 miles just to find one. There used to be a half dozen or more Friendly's restaurants located between New Haven, CT and Rhode Island along the I-95 corridor. Now there is one left. Looks more like 1993 (or 1982) around here than 2008. The liquidity that has been pumped into the nation the past 5 years didn't end up around here. My state as a whole is more like 1993 than 2008. Every few months the headlines read of another Fortune 500 firm pulling 500-1500 quality jobs out of the state. I can't recall seeing any such headlines on companies coming into the state over the past few years. Have to agree that the post-bubble bounce has overheated parts of the nation once again. Some folks (including the FED) never learn.

We still have people taking on hundreds of $Billions/$Trillions at the same old 10x-50x leverage to buy things....it just doesn't happen to be houses this time around (ie it's in the financial sectors). Where else would you go to play when the FED is back-stopping you with $3-4$Trillion in essentially "free" reserves? No exponential charts in the stock market....nothing to see here. Let's not forget that the 2008 MBS and CDS blow ups were only about 10% of the world's otc derivatives. They were small stuff.... though with a large impact. What happens when the other 90% get stressed? Some say, just net them out, no harm - no foul. Here we are about 6-1/2 years since those first started being stressed and no netting has been accomplished. If it's so easy and beneficial, why hasn't it been done? It wouldn't be because the TBTF banks have former members situated in key positions of the Administration, Treasury, Senate, Congress, FED, SEC, CFTC, OOC, BIS, IMF, CEA, BLS, BEA, etc.?? Nah, that would indicate a conspiracy of some sort which is of course only stuff of tin-foil hat dreams.

derryb

<< <i>Today real estate, PMs and other commodities, even the stock market are relatively more affordable than in 2008. >>


To those heavy in cash and not heavy in debt. That's a very small minority.

Excessive debt is what will make the future look like the past.

roadrunner

Some things that are the same at 2008 vs. 2014:

Debt continues to grow at approx 10% per year.
There was no silver market rigging in 2008....nor in 2014....the CFTC said so.
Same rigging in both time frames in interest rates, Libor, currencies, otc derivatives-swaps, multiple commodities and food prices, stock market, treasury bonds, etc.

But at least we can all feel confident that there is no rigging in the gold or silver markets. I feel better knowing that.

And one place where inflation is not prevalent is in car sizes. They have been shrinking the past 10 years resulting in car deflation. 8 cylinders to 6. 6 cylinders to 4. 4 cylinders to 3 and 2. Same comment for nearly all boxed,
canned, and packaged foods. So take that inflationistas!

cohodk

Lets not forget the inflation in automobile fuel economy....almost 25 mpg now, up 20% since 2008.

Another thing that is different is that we are all 6 years older---thats a 10-20% increase in age for most of us on this board. I hope our ages do not inflate to the point where we will no longer be able to see the benefits of our angst, fear and pessimism.

cohodk

This has to be highly dependent on where one lives. Some areas of the nation that never got overly heated in 2003-2008 haven't suffered as much as could be growing strongly today. A 25 mile radius from my home is still in decline with car dealerships, malls, and restaurants going under one by one.

Almost always has been this way roadrunner. After the winter you guys experienced this year I'd be surprised anyone still wants to live there. Without population growth you will not have economic growth. Here we go again about the influence of the baby boomers....

And I cant believe you are eating at Pizza Hut or Friendlys. Come on now..




It wouldn't be because the TBTF banks have former members situated in key positions of the Administration, Treasury, Senate, Congress, FED, SEC, CFTC, OOC, BIS, IMF, CEA, BLS, BEA, etc.?? Nah, that would indicate a conspiracy of some sort which is of course only stuff of tin-foil hat dreams.

Probably also a conspiracy that doctors sit on the board of the AMA, Health and Human Services, CDC, ect. Heck, even the Surgeon General is a doctor!!! And lets not even talk about the role of lawyers in Congress..Sheesh!!!

jmski52

roadrunner, you made me think of a recent experience. We got rid of my fiancée's '97 Formula and bought her an Escape. The dealer had 8 of them listed for the same price online, but when we went to look at them, they could only muster (1) car to look at. The rest of them were unavailable for whatever reason. Strange, eh? My idea of capitalism is having a wide selection and lots of competition for your business. Not so, apparently. It was that, or the highway.

We will be trading the Escape in at some point before it falls apart, as we've already noticed that it is lighter, sounds much tinnier, and we have a feeling that it just isn't built to last, the way the '97 vintages were.

roadrunner

<< <i>Lets not forget the inflation in automobile fuel economy....almost 25 mpg now, up 20% since 2008.

Another thing that is different is that we are all 6 years older---thats a 10-20% increase in age for most of us on this board. I hope our ages do not inflate to the point where we will no longer be able to see the benefits of our angst, fear and pessimism. >>



That average has been raised by the car's shrinkage. If you don't mind driving an econo-box with 2 to 4 cylinders (ie no power) then that's fine. I've always been a V8 guy and still drive only V8's with 275-330 hp. I like the extra size and crash protection in my long nosed 2002 Lincoln. I'm accepting only 18-22 mpg for that protection. And for those itty car owners they can get turbos. Then again, those turbos are expensive items to replace. That improved fuel mileage comes with added costs not seen right away. In the hybrids you have expensive batteries and charging systems that have to be dealt with some day. The battery in my 2002 will only cost me $90 every 5 years or so. Technology comes with a price tag. If I were still in my 40's I'd probably be longing to drive a simple 1960's car where I could fully service/repair anything in the engine bay other than a replacement engine or trans. Technology costs in other ways. I've been in a couple of serious accidents with full size cars....never got a scratch. Those front ends can absorb some big time energy.

Cohodk, I used to eat a lot at Pizza Hut and Friendly's in the 1980's and 1990's. Those were treats. Since there aren't any of those left around here now....I don't have that option. I do use the 2-1 coupons at my local pizzeria though from September-March. It's April-August that I miss Pizza Hut and Friendly's at times. Those ice cream shops just have not been able to survive in my quadrant of the state. And much of that is the downsizing of the submarine force/sub builders and pharmaceutical companies over the past 10-20 years. We're our on way "back to the future" here (ie 1955).

Probably also a conspiracy that doctors sit on the board of the AMA, Health and Human Services, CDC, ect. Heck, even the Surgeon General is a doctor!!! And lets not even talk about the role of lawyers in Congress..Sheesh!!!

Exactly right. Those guys still can't figure out any link between our fast and processed food diets and the increases in heart disease, cancer, and auto-immune system diseases over the past 40 years. These guys don't see any links that processed foods increase the risk of cancer. They are still trying to fight it with artificial drugs that ultimately do kill you. Ban fast and processed foods from the American diet and you'll see 50% drops in the cancer and heart disease rates. Of course, doing that will also cause other economic aftershocks that might be worse. It comes down to the person themselves. They can control those risks if they choose to do so. Just don't expect all those agencies and govt bodies above to come and help you get there. What's in it for them to do something that simple? That would mean grant and lobbying money plus perks go out the window. Maybe this is not really a conspiracy....but simply a complete lack of intelligence, initiative, and using one's brains properly. To get a conspiracy does require effort. Ok, I take that back.

derryb

<< <i>

<< <i>Lets not forget the inflation in automobile fuel economy....almost 25 mpg now, up 20% since 2008. >>


I have a 2003 Caddy Northstar engine with only 66K miles that gets 34 MPG on the interstate.