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Forum member inflation report.

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    10% inflation and we're all doing ok. (unless you bought gold image)
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,532 ✭✭✭✭✭
    10% inflation and we're all doing ok. (unless you bought gold image)

    I bought gold then, and I'm buying it now. I watch it go up, and I watch it go down.

    Some people like to pretend that their stock picks are doing better, but I doubt it.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>PS: and it's 2% or so, currently, on a macro basis. >>






    Please, please Baley, explain where your 2% macro inflation number comes from? Just reading this morning that auto repair costs jumped 7% yty. Housing prices in major markets up nearly 10% yty. Groceries up nearly 8-10% yty.

    Please tell me what has declined 8% to offset these hikes. Education? Medical care/insurance? Conestoga Wagons?

    Baley, I understand as you do that continued near or higher double digit inflation will unravel the DC formulated pathway to recovery. Tough to expect lenders to accept between 0% and 3% returns on US debt, when the investor has a high guaranteed loss built in.

    Does ignoring the problem help us? Maybe in the short term while we refuse to even attempt a balanced budget, but like all houses of cards, this scheme will fail as well. Not a good day when that comes, but it will force us as every household is forced, to spend within our means.

























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    pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,505 ✭✭✭
    AT&T offers $160 a month for 4 lines at 10 MB Data and that is the discounted price. To me that is insane, but families pay it. I personally have a gophone and and pay 10 cents a minute. Don't need mobile internet. But marketing today has made the American consumer addicted to being in constant contact with everyone and everything.

    People survived in the 70s, 80s without a cellphone. Those expenditures today for instant gratification could go a long way towards one retirement.
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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    An inferior cell phone plan used to cost a lot more 10 years ago.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    drwstr123drwstr123 Posts: 7,030 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>An inferior cell phone plan used to cost a lot more 10 years ago. >>



    Very true...not so for food, fuel, automobiles, tires, taxes, or politician's salaries.
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    MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>An inferior cell phone plan used to cost a lot more 10 years ago. >>



    Serious question for you Cohodk and Baley?

    Mobile phones and home computers as well as all hybrid versions were virtually non existent in 1980.

    Very available in the mid nineties and indispensable today.

    Clearly technological advances have dropped the price for hardware and service dramatically.

    What is a fair way to account for this regarding the CPI?

    For example. My home computer system cost about $800. Similar (but certainly less powerful set up in 1995 would have been $3000).

    Now is it fair to say that each time I replace my set up (every 3 years), my personal CPI on technology has generated a 75% reduction?

    Problem is, I never have bought a $3000 computer. I topped out at $1200 in 2000. Should $1200 than be my base?

    Same with cellphones. Some early adopters were paying $500 plus each month. But the masses jumped in when the $100 price point was hit.

    Good day I suppose to deep dive into the CPI calculation data.......if available.

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Isnt your question a good reason why the CPI calculation needs to change every so often? In 1980 we didnt even have cell phones, not everyone has one. Should we never account for this technology that has brought forth what may be an immeasurable increase in productivity?
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭
    Bank just kicked up the price of cashiers checks to $10 each from $7.50.

    They also are about to get whacked with a $9,000,000,000 or so fine.

    900 million cashiers checks and they will have the debt covered!
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    MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Isnt your question a good reason why the CPI calculation needs to change every so often? In 1980 we didnt even have cell phones, not everyone has one. Should we never account for this technology that has brought forth what may be an immeasurable increase in productivity? >>



    Of course we should account for these products, that is why I asked the question. What do you set as the benchmark though, $1000 a month.......$500 or $100 a month?

    You cannot tell a mobile phone user that he is saving $300 a month on his phone service today, if he has never spent over $50 a month for it.
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    bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 9,972 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Isnt your question a good reason why the CPI calculation needs to change every so often? In 1980 we didnt even have cell phones, not everyone has one. Should we never account for this technology that has brought forth what may be an immeasurable increase in productivity? >>




    It's immeasurable alright image

    As in zero , cellphones waste more productivity than they add , at least in the aggregate . For each of those that benefit 5 times as many zombies are walking around glued stupidly to their little phones
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    bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 9,972 ✭✭✭✭✭
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    MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>More stealth inflation image


    McDonalds is putting wood pulp in its burgers now >>



    Wonder if it works like Viagra?
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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    cellphones waste more productivity than they add

    My cellphones enables me to do the same amount of work with one less employee. That saves me about $40,000.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 9,972 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>cellphones waste more productivity than they add

    My cellphones enables me to do the same amount of work with one less employee. That saves me about $40,000. >>



    yours probably does image mine does too . But I run into these 20 something idiots that want to use their damn phones while they are supposed to be working and a lot of them wind up getting fired over it.

    Texting at work , updating facebook status , looking at youtube videos . Having a phone on their person turns them into 8 year olds .


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    drwstr123drwstr123 Posts: 7,030 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>cellphones waste more productivity than they add

    My cellphones enables me to do the same amount of work with one less employee. That saves me about $40,000. >>



    yours probably does image mine does too . But I run into these 20 something idiots that want to use their damn phones while they are supposed to be working and a lot of them wind up getting fired over it.

    Texting at work , updating facebook status , looking at youtube videos . Having a phone on their person turns them into 8 year olds . >>



    My son has a summer job with a major entertainment company.
    Use of cell phone is immediate dismissal.
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    bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 9,972 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>cellphones waste more productivity than they add

    My cellphones enables me to do the same amount of work with one less employee. That saves me about $40,000. >>



    yours probably does image mine does too . But I run into these 20 something idiots that want to use their damn phones while they are supposed to be working and a lot of them wind up getting fired over it.

    Texting at work , updating facebook status , looking at youtube videos . Having a phone on their person turns them into 8 year olds . >>



    My son has a summer job with a major entertainment company.
    Use of cell phone is immediate dismissal. >>



    I've seen laborers at a construction site fired twice in the past month over cellphones. These people would literally put their tools down and reach for their phone when it made noise. A text comes in or a call and work stops.

    Unless you are the management fielding calls from customers or your wife's water is about to break why would you have a phone on your person at work? Why would it ring? Why don't people on the other end not know that you are working and you can't be on the phone?


    The idea that someone would lose a job that pays $20 an hour over the need to respond to a text blows my mindimage

    This isn't just 20 year-olds either . I see people in their 40's act this way .


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    MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭
    Phoenix paper this morning indicated that food prices have risen 9% yty in the state. Somehow they haven't budged yet in DC.
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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    But I run into these 20 something idiots that want to use their damn phones while they are supposed to be working and a lot of them wind up getting fired over it.

    Texting at work , updating facebook status , looking at youtube videos . Having a phone on their person turns them into 8 year olds .



    Sounds like opportunity for individuals to differentiate themselves.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Isnt your question a good reason why the CPI calculation needs to change every so often? In 1980 we didnt even have cell phones, not everyone has one. Should we never account for this technology that has brought forth what may be an immeasurable increase in productivity? >>



    The largest changes by far in the CPI methodology occurred in 1983 and then the early 1990's. So what major technology advances occurred at those times that justified such large changes? Seems to me these cell phone and computer advances came long after the largest CPI changes occurred. I believe some more revisions were done around 2001-2004, in particular where they added geometric averaging, quality factors, and other such stuff into the mix. Those were math changes and had nothing to do with technology or costs. Geometric averaging (nth root of n prices multiplied together) is used to massage out large spikes in either direction. My only beef about geo averaging is that our shopping carts aren't geometrically averaged. When we pay at the register or via credit card on line we pay by arithmetic averages (the sum of n prices divided by n items). If the BLS and FED could get together to make a geometric FRN (or M/C and Visa a geometric c/c) then I'd be all for "geometric" purchases.

    The quality factors and substitutional effects that were put into effect 10-20 years ago are the means to account for improvements in technology. If the computer is 10X faster than the last version then they lower the effective price in the CPI to account for that customer efficiency gain. But does it really make a difference in your life if your clothes drier has a dozen computer settings to give you more options? You'd think so as the BLS has a 15 page document on the quality factors of clothes driers. Me, I just toss the clothes in and use a low, high or medium setting and set the time. It's a 23 year old machine and works just fine w/o high tech quality factors. Would a high tech machine that costs 2X as much make my life any easier? No. But the BLS would probably "effectively" discount that 2X machine cost by 30-50% to account for all those "high tech gadgets" that they feel will improve my life. I would probably agree that cell phones have degraded the quality and productivity at many businesses, especially office workers who are chained to their desks. There's no BLS quality factor to account for the productivity distractions that all these gadgets and apps create. When E-mail started to rise in popularity 10-15 years ago you could see the distractions that it was causing. Some days it would take me 1-2 hours to address all my emails, something that didn't exist only a few years before that. I can only imagine how the voluminous emails, cell phone messages, texts, social media messages, and other inputs now take to pour through.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
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    BaleyBaley Posts: 22,659 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Golly, all those problems, and still the best country on the planet. If it were not, wouldn't you move to the best country asap? I would.

    Happy independence day

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

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    MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Golly, all those problems, and still the best country on the planet. If it were not, wouldn't you move to the best country asap? I would.

    Happy independence day >>



    Much of our edge was forfeited with the passage and incompetent implementation of the ACA.
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    mariner67mariner67 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Golly, all those problems, and still the best country on the planet. If it were not, wouldn't you move to the best country asap? I would.

    Happy independence day >>



    imageimage
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    roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Did my 2 week shopping run at BJ's this morning and like clockwork they jacked up the price of 3 lb bags of walnuts and almonds by another $1 each (+7%). This happens every 6-12 months. In the 5 years since I've been going there I think they have gone from $10 to $15/bag (+50%). It's getting close to the time to start the substitutional effects on these or just cut them out. I tried the substitutional effects on the top grade salmon from the local fish market and I just can't get used to farm/feces raised salmon. Even the 5 liter jug of distilled white vinegar was up 10% this trip. Didn't buy it. Will try that on my next visit to Walmart.

    I used to get a wide variety of stuff at BJ's that was healthy and priced right but one by one they are being knocked off the list by either price or the store removing the item because it's not profitable enough for them. The healthy (low salt - low sugar) specialty tomato sauce they once had was phased out last year. BJ's organic unsweetened soymilk has gone up from $1.33/half gallon to $3.00/half gallon in just the past 18 months (125%). No doubt it was a great bargain before. I think they ran it like that for a few years to get people introduced to it. Now it's not much cheaper than at the local supermarkets. It almost seems like each item that was a "deal" is being systematically removed/altered from the BJ's inventory. There really isn't all much stuff left that we buy to justify the yearly $50 membership. They still offer cheap quality snythetic motor oil priced < Walmart but will that last? And the annual $70 rebate on Michelin and BFGoodrich tires is a good deal. Just finished getting new tires on both cars in the past year so can't use that $70 for a long time. Their tire prices tend to be as competitive as any of the huge on-line stores. Actually, I found none cheaper once shipping was factored in. This particular BJ's doesn't offer tire alignment which puts them at a disadvantage to most other tire businesses. BJ's pump gas tends to be 5c to 10c cheaper than the other local stations. I'll re-up again but every year the decision gets tougher. One thing is for sure, my average annual price increase at BJ's have not been in line with the 2-3% seen on the CPI the past 5 years.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,532 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It seems to me that our toilet paper is being cut just a little bit narrower now.image
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭
    $9.50 for a pound of Boars Head salami. I don't eat the stuff so the increases seem that much more dramatic.

    Irony is, the Dem voters are getting whacked much harder that the Pubs from 9% annual food inflation.

    Truly unfortunate as rich middle or poor, we all need to eat.
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    drwstr123drwstr123 Posts: 7,030 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Today in central NJ (Glory's Market) I paid $19.99 per pound for filet mignon.
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    AmigoAmigo Posts: 966

    My local Mimi's Restaurant introduced a new menu ... Again. Obviously accompanied by the expectant price increases.
    Along with downsizing. Meals now came with 2 instead of 3 bacon strips. No longer the thick smoked bacon, instead paper thin. I shouldn't be surprised if bacon now costs more a T-bone did a couple yrs back.
    Ahhhh, feels good to have someone listen to me since my family won't, lol
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    CoulportCoulport Posts: 1,087 ✭✭✭
    My home owners insurance went up 8.6% with no change in coverage.
    The most money I made are on coins I haven't sold.

    Got quoins?
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,378 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>It seems to me that our toilet paper is being cut just a little bit narrower now.image >>


    Mine's lost 97% since the FED started printing it:

    image

    Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
    - Nick Giambruno
    Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.

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    roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>My home owners insurance went up 8.6% with no change in coverage. >>



    My health insurance has gone up at least that amount every year since 2009. Largest increase was 22%. It started at $444/mo in summer 2009 and by January 2015 it will be approx $1,200/mo. And that's the cheapest
    plan in the entire state including the 1-2 dozen that have sprung up to meet Obamacare guidelines. All you get for your $14,400/yr will be an annual physical, where you still pay for 20% of it. Everything else comes out of pocket
    until you meet the $11K to $12K deductible.....which are also rising every year.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
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    MetalsmanMetalsman Posts: 2,047 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>My home owners insurance went up 8.6% with no change in coverage. >>



    My health insurance has gone up at least that amount every year since 2009. Largest increase was 22%. It started at $444/mo in summer 2009 and by January 2015 it will be approx $1,200/mo. And that's the cheapest
    plan in the entire state including the 1-2 dozen that have sprung up to meet Obamacare guidelines. All you get for your $14,400/yr will be an annual physical, where you still pay for 20% of it. Everything else comes out of pocket
    until you meet the $11K to $12K deductible.....which are also rising every year. >>




    LOOK RR. that is simply marketplace driven supply and DEMAND [not sure who's demand most likely OBUMA's... sorry couldn't resist ] NO inflation here folks... move along....Spoken in the words of our resident NO Inflation Here ! Forum Trolls...image



    As for me.... well..... I agree with you...Paying more... is INFLATION.. IN MANY CASES ITS PAYING MORE WITH LESS!image
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    MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭
    Was reading this weekend that the cheapest ACA policy in Arizona is going up 14% net year. Add in the price of gas as to find a doctor to treat you, a drive of 50 miles is often necessary.
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    mariner67mariner67 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭
    If you think the VA medical system is bad just wait until the ACA gets fully established.
    Lots of folks will have new insurance but have a hard time finding a doctor willing to take care of them for below cost reimbursement rates the government offers. The docs with lower level/quality practices will be taking in new patients sure but the majority probably won't.
    Some folks with Medicare have had a hard time finding a doctor who will accept them for years now.
    A 50 mile drive easily could be the closest one can find an accepting doc. Plus, with a large number of those signing up for the ACA having significant chronic health issues and the younger healthier ones not willing to join/pay, you better believe rates will skyrocket every year to cover the insured pool.
    Think about how poorly the government runs the postal service. Now they are expanding their involvement in health care. You ain't seen nothing yet!
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    pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,505 ✭✭✭
    Probably be more VIP Concierge Services now to even see a doctor. $1500 a year membership just to be accepted into the practice. This will be the rule, not the acception.
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    ebaytraderebaytrader Posts: 3,312 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Probably be more VIP Concierge Services now to even see a doctor. $1500 a year membership just to be accepted into the practice. This will be the rule, not the acception. >>




    ^ Very popular in my area.
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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The Fed doesnt care about what you pay for your Corn Flakes, but rather what Kelloggs pays for the corn.

    image
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    looks like blatant manipulation...lol
    keceph `anah
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    MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭
    Archie comics are now $3.00 each. Paid 15C as a kid.

    No wonder kids are playing video games instead.


    image
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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yes, it is quite obvious. Everyone knows there are more people, and people gotta eat, thus placing more demand on the commodity. As Ted Bulter might say, manipulation is the only plausible explanation. image
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    BaleyBaley Posts: 22,659 ✭✭✭✭✭
    image



    << <i>looks like blatant manipulation...lol >>



    Looks like a Bumper Crop, the largest harvests in years due to largely to favorable weather.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

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    BaleyBaley Posts: 22,659 ✭✭✭✭✭
    And yes, the prices for boxes of "organic" corn flakes and cakes of designer tofu are still going up.. but that's not monetary Inflation, that's "pricing power"

    ... whatever the market will bear, gentlemen, whatever the market will bear. The best cure for high prices is... well, you know!

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

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    DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,327 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Heard this morning on the news that the big food co's announced an expected 5-6% increase at the supermarket for consumers due to bad crop numbers this year......?
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    guitarwesguitarwes Posts: 9,242 ✭✭✭
    Gas- $3.34
    Milk- $4.11 (up from $3.84 a month ago)
    Beef is getting crazy ~ $2.49/lb for ground beef. About time to sell my 8 cows I guess.
    Still have 99¢ hamburgers at Micky D's
    @ Elite CNC Routing & Woodworks on Facebook. Check out my work.
    Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
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    MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>And yes, the prices for boxes of "organic" corn flakes and cakes of designer tofu are still going up.. but that's not monetary Inflation, that's "pricing power"

    ... whatever the market will bear, gentlemen, whatever the market will bear. The best cure for high prices is... well, you know! >>




    I suppose that a Hershey chocolate bar is a luxury organic product.

    8% hike announced this week. Second hike for the year. Pricing power is true with an extra $5,000,000,000,000 floating around the world.

    Text
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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,532 ✭✭✭✭✭
    When my homeowner's insurance rates bumped up by 20%, I didn't get mad. I got even.

    My former agent was aghast when I informed her that I had a better deal and now my house payments are just about where they were before she tried to rip me a big one.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>When my homeowner's insurance rates bumped up by 20%, I didn't get mad. I got even.

    My former agent was aghast when I informed her that I had a better deal and now my house payments are just about where they were before she tried to rip me a big one. >>



    I find that it is best to price insurance and cable/phone/internet service every 6 months.
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    mariner67mariner67 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭
    For what it is worth, here is a good one!
    Just read in a newspaper in London the other day that June retail sales in England now reported are down and at a 3 year low.
    The reason given? Are you ready?
    The article said that because England had an early exit from the World Cup Soccer games folks cut their spending!
    That is the readon given for the drop.
    First harsh weather gets blamed and now a soccer loss!
    I almost fell off my chair laughing when I read this.
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    guitarwesguitarwes Posts: 9,242 ✭✭✭
    The little green lizard has had my auto insurance for a while now but goes up a couple % every renewal period (6 months). Shopped at Flo's (Progressive) 2 days ago and she's a good bit cheaper for the same coverage. Hello Flo.
    @ Elite CNC Routing & Woodworks on Facebook. Check out my work.
    Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
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    MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>The article said that because England had an early exit from the World Cup Soccer games folks cut their spending! >>




    ....and of course had England made the finals, they would have been glued to the TV and not in the stores, also a reason for declining sales.
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