Seriously, you think that my source is from the Mint? Should I give him the phone number of a few dealers that I talked with over the past few days? Hopefully he won't use mint's sales phone number
To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
As a matter of reference, when some members wanted to know how many coins were "minted", the US Mint Customer Relations department was only willing to share sales.
Those "sales" figures were gross sales. Many times they were not adjusted for returns.
When asked about "mintages", there was further confusion by US Mint personnel around gross mintages, or net mintages (damaged coins adjusted).
Back in 2008, FOIA requests were sent to the US Mint to clarify. It took numerous requests by a few forum members to get the numbers we were looking for.
So, when you say "I called someone at the mint and they told me......", IMO, I wouldn't rely on those statements.
I'm not aware of any 2nd striking ever taking place in December at the Mint. The fast sellout after being put back on sale also seems to indicate that they were adjusting existing inventories before finishing off the year. That still doesn't give us a good estimate of final sales. The closest we can come now is to track late order cancellations and order numbers. Either way, it looks like the Unc MacArthur is going to be No.2.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
The one thing that makes me question whether they did a short strike is the coin is now sold out. Usually in the past when another strike is done they do enough to carry the coin to the end of the sales period.
That hasn't happened here.
Instead it was a couple weeks of backorder followed by the sell out as best I remember.
Had a recent strike of more coins been done it should have gone off backorder like other coins in a similar situation as inventory was replenished, then sold until it went to backorder again and then sold out.
Anyway me two cents worth on this, this coin is an easy double as it is.
Rather than citing any order fulfillment data from some private source, let me share with you some public information that has been ignored by many of us so far. The expected shipping date after the backorder notice was originally October 2013 (I know this makes no sense). After a couple of days, the date has been changed to 12/30 and it stayed there for about 10 days. On 12/16 this date was suddenly changed to 12/25, along with that of the clad half dollar. After a few days, it was changed back to 12/30 and eventually to sold out status on 12/23. We all know that the original cut off date is mid December. The average weekly sale is around 50 prior to the backorder status. If I were Mint, i have around 500 in back order and two more weeks to sell because of the unusual sale extension, how many would I strike at that point? 700 or 2000?
To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
As a side note, the recent parade of low-mintage $5 gold commems has likely contributed to the steep price decline of the 1995-96 uncirculated Olympic gold coins. Despite mintages between 9100 and 10600, three of these four coins were selling for over $2K each at one point. Now they often bring $800 or less on eBay.
Any guess of the final unaudited sales number to be posted on mint's web tomorrow afternoon? 1. 5700 2. 5612 3. below 5612 4. above 5700 5. between 5612 and 5700 6. 5666 is my lucky number
To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
I don't have a guess but the number will be higher than expected -- then drop later as returns and cancelled orders are done.
The clad half is a nail-biter too, the Profiles Set is the wild card. Time to hold your hand. More purchases may tip this race into the gutter. I'm still considering sending my recent order back...
On another note, the Girl Scouts proof $ are looking a bit low too, thoughts?
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<< <i>Any guess of the final unaudited sales number to be posted on mint's web tomorrow afternoon? 1. 5700 2. 5612 3. below 5612 4. above 5700 5. between 5612 and 5700 6. 5666 is my lucky number >>
Based on the public comment made by Eric Jordan below, I think that his preferred choice is 3 I think Louis's preferred choice is 2, am I right?
Louis Golino said: ↑ The XLS #s are changed all the time, and I don't trust them. The one that counts is the Tues. 5pm #. There will be another # next week that may show some small change for orders that came in late, etc. and then they will probably not give any more #'s until the final audited # a year from now. So next week's will be the key. But I do not expect it to be different from 5612. With a mintage only a few hundred over Jackie Robinson you are going to see demand continue to pick up now, and the coins are selling for very healthy premiums on the Bay and are sold out at every dealer. It's too early to really determine demand levels, but they seem to be very healthy right now. You will not find any except on the Bay for a min. 50% markup. Eric, what is your assessment?
I liked the coins at issue price for certain just did not buy enough. The coin sold out gently and then got hit. I would not be shocked to the see final final mintaes come in around the current 5600 numbers and just MAYBE even down some. If this coin gets picked up by a promoter like John it could get expensive. I paid $685 for an unopened one right after it when no longer available if that gives you ay idea how I feel about it.
To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
The best thing that the Mint could do is to create a low mintage coin or two every year. Keep interest up in their products and keep collectors buying all over the the various offerings hoping to score a big one.
Why does Eric suggest that a promoter may be needed for this coin to perform?
<< <i>
<< <i>Any guess of the final unaudited sales number to be posted on mint's web tomorrow afternoon? 1. 5700 2. 5612 3. below 5612 4. above 5700 5. between 5612 and 5700 6. 5666 is my lucky number >>
Based on the public comment made by Eric Jordan below, I think that his preferred choice is 3 I think Louis's preferred choice is 2, am I right?
Louis Golino said: ↑ The XLS #s are changed all the time, and I don't trust them. The one that counts is the Tues. 5pm #. There will be another # next week that may show some small change for orders that came in late, etc. and then they will probably not give any more #'s until the final audited # a year from now. So next week's will be the key. But I do not expect it to be different from 5612. With a mintage only a few hundred over Jackie Robinson you are going to see demand continue to pick up now, and the coins are selling for very healthy premiums on the Bay and are sold out at every dealer. It's too early to really determine demand levels, but they seem to be very healthy right now. You will not find any except on the Bay for a min. 50% markup. Eric, what is your assessment?
I liked the coins at issue price for certain just did not buy enough. The coin sold out gently and then got hit. I would not be shocked to the see final final mintaes come in around the current 5600 numbers and just MAYBE even down some. If this coin gets picked up by a promoter like John it could get expensive. I paid $685 for an unopened one right after it when no longer available if that gives you ay idea how I feel about it. >>
To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
The overlooked clad half is very close to dethroning the 2012 Army clad half for lowest mintage.
Even though the combined sales of products containing this coin were within 100 coins of the 2012 Army clad half mintage, the wait until 5pm to see the real numbers is a nail biter.
Remember, that $20 coin has the potential to be a 3-4x flip, price point matters.
<< <i>The overlooked clad half is very close to dethroning the 2012 Army clad half for lowest mintage.
Even though the combined sales of products containing this coin were within 100 coins of the 2012 Army clad half mintage, the wait until 5pm to see the real numbers is a nail biter.
Remember, that $20 coin has the potential to be a 3-4x flip, price point matters. >>
And the Army clad seemed to be a dude. I had 10 graded PCGS 69 (highest grade for the coin) and after the eBay fees, I broke even. It took me about 8 months to get rid of them!
It is likely that MacArthur-P becomes a trough and the mintage of this series could rebound sharply for at least the next four years.
On December 17, 2013, a bill was introduced in the Senate which seeks authorize a commemorative coin program in recognition and celebration of the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
<< <i>It is likely that MacArthur-P becomes a trough and the mintage of this series could rebound sharply for at least the next four years.
On December 17, 2013, a bill was introduced in the Senate which seeks authorize a commemorative coin program in recognition and celebration of the Pro Football Hall of Fame. >>
I just checked the mints web site and unless I am doing it wrong it does not look like the put the sales report up at 5. Am I doing it wrong or did they put it up?
I'm guessing whoever does the updates got a "Hey, Nick, it's New Year's Day, kick off early. Have a good one!" email from his boss. We probably won't see any updates until Thursday.
"I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
That could be -- but also could be the stat's are taking longer to compile with today's closeout of many issues. Any cc prob's cancelled orders, etc. Hopefully will update soon and not Thursday!
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33500 seems to be the approximate combined mintage of the generals $1 Silver Coin. For those in the know, how does this stack up with past commemoratives?
I received an email yesterday that the mint had shipped an Uncirculated MacArthur $5 gold to me. It does not need to be an MS-70, but MS-68 or 69 would be nice. I just hope that it is not one with a scratch or fingerprint that someone else rejected.
It is interesting that the clad half dollar has sold out. Historically those coins have seldom supported a market price that is equal to their issue price.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
<< <i>I received an email yesterday that the mint had shipped an Uncirculated MacArthur $5 gold to me. It does not need to be an MS-70, but MS-68 or 69 would be nice. I just hope that it is not one with a scratch or fingerprint that someone else rejected.
It is interesting that the clad half dollar has sold out. Historically those coins have seldom supported a market price that is equal to their issue price. >>
Thanks for this update. Now we know that mint did make an effort to fill the vast majority orders in back order status. I have been aware of this for quite a few days, but did not want to disclose private order fulfillment data. It is very likely that you will receive some freshly minted coin. Happy new year!
To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
Comments
<< <i>What number did you call at the mint? >>
Seriously, you think that my source is from the Mint? Should I give him the phone number of a few dealers that I talked with over the past few days? Hopefully he won't use mint's sales phone number
Those "sales" figures were gross sales. Many times they were not adjusted for returns.
When asked about "mintages", there was further confusion by US Mint personnel around gross mintages, or net mintages (damaged coins adjusted).
Back in 2008, FOIA requests were sent to the US Mint to clarify. It took numerous requests by a few forum members to get the numbers we were looking for.
So, when you say "I called someone at the mint and they told me......", IMO, I wouldn't rely on those statements.
I knew it would happen.
But sub-6000, even at #2, a great coin to own.
<< <i>I agree, save for a miracle, #2.
But sub-6000, even at #2, a great coin to own. >>
The expected sale spike of the next offering in this series aka curved ball will also help. However, it becomes harder to cross $2000 now.
That hasn't happened here.
Instead it was a couple weeks of backorder followed by the sell out as best I remember.
Had a recent strike of more coins been done it should have gone off backorder like other coins in a similar situation as inventory was replenished, then sold until it went to backorder again and then sold out.
Anyway me two cents worth on this, this coin is an easy double as it is.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
1. 5700
2. 5612
3. below 5612
4. above 5700
5. between 5612 and 5700
6. 5666 is my lucky number
<< <i>I'm guessing 5622. >>
Now we all know who ordered the last 10 coins last Monday morning
The clad half is a nail-biter too, the Profiles Set is the wild card. Time to hold your hand. More purchases may tip this race into the gutter. I'm still considering sending my recent order back...
On another note, the Girl Scouts proof $ are looking a bit low too, thoughts?
<< <i>Any guess of the final unaudited sales number to be posted on mint's web tomorrow afternoon?
1. 5700
2. 5612
3. below 5612
4. above 5700
5. between 5612 and 5700
6. 5666 is my lucky number
Based on the public comment made by Eric Jordan below, I think that his preferred choice is 3
Louis Golino said: ↑
The XLS #s are changed all the time, and I don't trust them. The one that counts is the Tues. 5pm #. There will be another # next week that may show some small change for orders that came in late, etc. and then they will probably not give any more #'s until the final audited # a year from now. So next week's will be the key. But I do not expect it to be different from 5612. With a mintage only a few hundred over Jackie Robinson you are going to see demand continue to pick up now, and the coins are selling for very healthy premiums on the Bay and are sold out at every dealer. It's too early to really determine demand levels, but they seem to be very healthy right now. You will not find any except on the Bay for a min. 50% markup. Eric, what is your assessment?
I liked the coins at issue price for certain just did not buy enough. The coin sold out gently and then got hit. I would not be shocked to the see final final mintaes come in around the current 5600 numbers and just MAYBE even down some. If this coin gets picked up by a promoter like John it could get expensive. I paid $685 for an unopened one right after it when no longer available if that gives you ay idea how I feel about it.
These days its a true crapshoot to buy any US Mint product. The Mint is playin us like a bunch
of slots junkies.
watch for market reaction after today's sale number from the mint.
JMHO, GrandAm
<< <i>
I bet your ms 69 coin will fetch a very good price in the next few hours
<< <i>Noon. Now the wait for 5pm. >>
You don't think the Federal Government won't take the afternoon off????
<< <i>
<< <i>Any guess of the final unaudited sales number to be posted on mint's web tomorrow afternoon?
1. 5700
2. 5612
3. below 5612
4. above 5700
5. between 5612 and 5700
6. 5666 is my lucky number
Based on the public comment made by Eric Jordan below, I think that his preferred choice is 3
Louis Golino said: ↑
The XLS #s are changed all the time, and I don't trust them. The one that counts is the Tues. 5pm #. There will be another # next week that may show some small change for orders that came in late, etc. and then they will probably not give any more #'s until the final audited # a year from now. So next week's will be the key. But I do not expect it to be different from 5612. With a mintage only a few hundred over Jackie Robinson you are going to see demand continue to pick up now, and the coins are selling for very healthy premiums on the Bay and are sold out at every dealer. It's too early to really determine demand levels, but they seem to be very healthy right now. You will not find any except on the Bay for a min. 50% markup. Eric, what is your assessment?
I liked the coins at issue price for certain just did not buy enough. The coin sold out gently and then got hit. I would not be shocked to the see final final mintaes come in around the current 5600 numbers and just MAYBE even down some. If this coin gets picked up by a promoter like John it could get expensive. I paid $685 for an unopened one right after it when no longer available if that gives you ay idea how I feel about it. >>
Even though the combined sales of products containing this coin were within 100 coins of the 2012 Army clad half mintage, the wait until 5pm to see the real numbers is a nail biter.
Remember, that $20 coin has the potential to be a 3-4x flip, price point matters.
<< <i>The overlooked clad half is very close to dethroning the 2012 Army clad half for lowest mintage.
Even though the combined sales of products containing this coin were within 100 coins of the 2012 Army clad half mintage, the wait until 5pm to see the real numbers is a nail biter.
Remember, that $20 coin has the potential to be a 3-4x flip, price point matters. >>
And the Army clad seemed to be a dude. I had 10 graded PCGS 69 (highest grade for the coin) and after the eBay fees, I broke even. It took me about 8 months to get rid of them!
Yes, I believe you are right. Ungraded coins were selling well but I decided to grade mine and by that time, it was ALL OVER!!!
<< <i>I would blow them out raw, unless, of course, you nail a 70 - which is kind of rare in these clad halves >>
Yes, wouldn't that had been nice - MS70 - pop = 1
<< <i>
<< <i>I would blow them out raw, unless, of course, you nail a 70 - which is kind of rare in these clad halves >>
Yes, wouldn't that had been nice - MS70 - pop = 1 >>
Is that for the FS only pop? I see the non FS has a pop of 25 in MS70.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I would blow them out raw, unless, of course, you nail a 70 - which is kind of rare in these clad halves >>
Yes, wouldn't that had been nice - MS70 - pop = 1 >>
Is that for the FS only pop? I see the non FS has a pop of 25 in MS70. >>
I was thinking about the Army clad as there were no MS70's. If only one of mine would of made a 70!!!!!
There is one 5-star clad MS70 "On Sale" for around $2.2k on eBay. It was $2.8k.
On December 17, 2013, a bill was introduced in the Senate which seeks authorize a commemorative coin program in recognition and celebration of the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
<< <i>It is likely that MacArthur-P becomes a trough and the mintage of this series could rebound sharply for at least the next four years.
On December 17, 2013, a bill was introduced in the Senate which seeks authorize a commemorative coin program in recognition and celebration of the Pro Football Hall of Fame. >>
Oh wow, I would be all over those!
I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the spreadsheet numbers are reduced substantially for these halves.
If I had the funds, I'd get it.
MacArthur Uncirculated AND Proof 70
in the know, how does this stack up with past commemoratives?
<< <i>This is a steal of a deal, right?
If I had the funds, I'd get it.
MacArthur Uncirculated AND Proof 70 >>
Check the eBay pricing history, the proof has little premium.
It is interesting that the clad half dollar has sold out. Historically those coins have seldom supported a market price that is equal to their issue price.
<< <i>I received an email yesterday that the mint had shipped an Uncirculated MacArthur $5 gold to me. It does not need to be an MS-70, but MS-68 or 69 would be nice. I just hope that it is not one with a scratch or fingerprint that someone else rejected.
It is interesting that the clad half dollar has sold out. Historically those coins have seldom supported a market price that is equal to their issue price. >>
Thanks for this update. Now we know that mint did make an effort to fill the vast majority orders in back order status. I have been aware of this for quite a few days, but did not want to disclose private order fulfillment data. It is very likely that you will receive some freshly minted coin. Happy new year!
<< <i>This is a steal of a deal, right?
If I had the funds, I'd get it.
MacArthur Uncirculated AND Proof 70 >>
Here's a 2 coin set NGC ER 70's @ $1399.99. This is $400 less than the set you linked...
LINK