<< <i>Oddly tho, the proofs never seem to carry a big premium for low mintages. >>
This does seem to be the case. I've never understood it. >>
Collectors gravitate towards proofs, as shown by the fact that they regularly outsell uncirculated versions by a wide margin. Proofs highlight the design elements by contrasting them with the fields, are more aesthetically pleasing overall, and are more impressive when shown to friends and acquaintances.
Investors/speculators gravitate towards the uncirculated versions due mainly to their lower mintages.
The lower premiums for the proofs can be explained by their typically higher mintages (compared to uncs.) and lack of speculative interest. The demand profiles for proofs and uncs. are very different from each other.
<< <i>Good luck to anyone buying this coin in aftermarket prices now. >>
Half, do you know something that the market does not know yet >>
yes, some idiots have bought some graded uncs at ridiculous prices, most likely based off the excitement in these threads. But excitement wears off and wondercoin will bring some newly graded coins to market soon.
I wouldn't have touched the prices of those graded ones that went off earlier this week. Even lower priced ones would be fully priced retail with little near and intermediate term upside, imo.
Hope that wondercoin's inventory can readjust, or at least stabilize the near term market expectations. Anything is possible in a thinly traded market
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Good luck to anyone buying this coin in aftermarket prices now. >>
Half, do you know something that the market does not know yet >>
yes, some idiots have bought some graded uncs at ridiculous prices, most likely based off the excitement in these threads. But excitement wears off and wondercoin will bring some newly graded coins to market soon.
I wouldn't have touched the prices of those graded ones that went off earlier this week. Even lower priced ones would be fully priced retail with little near and intermediate term upside, imo. >>
To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
Well...after sitting on my hands for weeks and not buying the Unc. (like an idiot), I broke down this afternoon and snagged an NGC PF70 UCam Early Releases for $600...figuring that wasn't too much of a premium now that it's backordered from the Mint.
So I'm hoping I didn't overpay too much. And while I know the MacArthur Unc is probably the definite rarity, I'm sensing that the proof numbers will also be pretty low.
RichR - How can the proof mintage be "low" on this one when they sold an additional 10,000 proof coins in the 2 pc. sets in addition to single coin sales? Or, am I confusing this with something else?
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i>Good luck to anyone buying this coin in aftermarket prices now. >>
Half, do you know something that the market does not know yet >>
yes, some idiots have bought some graded uncs at ridiculous prices, most likely based off the excitement in these threads. But excitement wears off and wondercoin will bring some newly graded coins to market soon.
I wouldn't have touched the prices of those graded ones that went off earlier this week. Even lower priced ones would be fully priced retail with little near and intermediate term upside, imo. >>
full disclosure note:
I quit having mine graded, but I would be interested in scoring some graded ones of these just in case
Agree. The 1200 to 1300 ebay prices for ngc ms70 are surprisingly strong given 90% graded ms70 so far at ngc.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Good luck to anyone buying this coin in aftermarket prices now. >>
Half, do you know something that the market does not know yet >>
yes, some idiots have bought some graded uncs at ridiculous prices, most likely based off the excitement in these threads. But excitement wears off and wondercoin will bring some newly graded coins to market soon.
I wouldn't have touched the prices of those graded ones that went off earlier this week. Even lower priced ones would be fully priced retail with little near and intermediate term upside, imo. >>
full disclosure note:
I quit having mine graded, but I would be interested in scoring some graded ones of these just in case
but no at those last prices by a long shot. >>
To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
As was noted on a related thread, the Army proof is [currently] lowest at ~17k. However, MacArthur could topple that if the proofs sell out as fast after going to backordered status as the Unc did.
And the price of the slabbed proof has started to rise.
As was noted on a related thread, the Army proof is [currently] lowest at ~17k. However, MacArthur could topple that if the proofs sell out as fast after going to backordered status as the Unc did.
And the price of the slabbed proof has started to rise
RichR: I understand, but the Army proof gold tends to sell (often) BELOW US Mint original issue price even today. So, with a little luck, the proof MacArthur ends up being somewhere in the low 16,000's. Will 16,000 vs 17,000 really make any difference?
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i>RichR - How can the proof mintage be "low" on this one when they sold an additional 10,000 proof coins in the 2 pc. sets in addition to single coin sales? Or, am I confusing this with something else?
Wondercoin >>
The previous "king" of the $5 gold commems was the Smithsonian at 21,840. They show a modest premium. In 2011, that was eclipsed twice by the Army and Medals OH at 17-18k. SSB was close to at just over 18k. Prices seem rather flat on these compared to their very low numbers. Overdate gave a plausible cause, but it still seems these low mintages are undervalued.
Now with MacA prf possibly lower yet (including set sales, total about 17k), will they experience anything like the Uncs'?
EDITED to respond to Wondercoin -- 16k vs 17k? Apparently this is making a diff with the Unc Mac's.... The "lowest" seems to carry some prestige for some coins, but not all evidently.
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Let's think out of the box for a few minutes. What will happen if some dealer decides to make an effort to promote the macarthur gold coins in japan, Korea, se asia and even china? Few people in that region is aware of these coins at this point. Many senior military officers in that region graduated from this military college, including the prime minister of Singapore.
To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
<< <i>Oddly tho, the proofs never seem to carry a big premium for low mintages. >>
This does seem to be the case. I've never understood it. >>
Collectors gravitate towards proofs, as shown by the fact that they regularly outsell uncirculated versions by a wide margin. Proofs highlight the design elements by contrasting them with the fields, are more aesthetically pleasing overall, and are more impressive when shown to friends and acquaintances.
Investors/speculators gravitate towards the uncirculated versions due mainly to their lower mintages.
The lower premiums for the proofs can be explained by their typically higher mintages (compared to uncs.) and lack of speculative interest. The demand profiles for proofs and uncs. are very different from each other. >>
i have FS eligible sealed boxes of both MS and Proof recent comm gold issues. I don't really expect moonmoney increases. I believe the recent pop lows and near lows reflect the current collector base. I believe market demand is satisfied with these pops. Stagnant values till the demand increases (as was mentioned, maybe overseas interest).
I bought 15 clads and have them in hand. Not all in though on the clads. I doubt they minted 5k of these in their last striking last week. Between the profiles collection and the singles they need to sell around 9K or more not to become the key.
Correction that is 5k need to be sold between the singles and profile collection.
<< <i>I bought 15 clads and have them in hand. Not all in though on the clads. I doubt they minted 5k of these in their last striking last week. Between the profiles collection and the singles they need to sell around 9K or more not to become the key. >>
I think it's closer than that -- last I saw the halves were about 3k from the Army mintage. It may be a total guess at this point since the next production update from the Mint will be at the same time as sales close next Tuesday. It's very plausible that 3k+ could sell during this final week.
Refs: MCM,Fivecents,Julio,Robman,Endzone,Coiny,Agentjim007,Musky1011,holeinone1972,Tdec1000,Type2,bumanchu, Metalsman,Wondercoin,Pitboss,Tomohawk,carew4me,segoja,thebigeng,jlc_coin,mbogoman,sportsmod,dragon,tychojoe,Schmitz7,claychaser,and many OTHERS
The shadows are lengthening for me. The twilight is here. My days of old have vanished — tone and tint. They have gone glimmering through the dreams of things that were. Their memory is one of wondrous beauty, watered by tears and coaxed and caressed by the smiles of yesterday. I listen then, but with thirsty ear, for the witching melody of faint bugles blowing reveille, of far drums beating the long roll. In my dreams I hear again the crash of guns, the rattle of musketry, the strange, mournful mutter of the battlefield. But in the evening of my memory alwaysº I come back to West Point. Always there echoes and re-echoes: Duty, Honor, Country. DM at west point 1962
To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
Multiple sources indicate that the Mint is now shipping a large number of the uncirculated gold coins. The good news, these are very likely freshly minted coins., given the significant quantity. The bad news, the final mintage is going to be very close to 5615. In fact, a few dealers are selling at Bay to hedge their incoming shipment. Some of them may price aggressively to balance their forthcoming credit card charge. Once those liquidity driven sellers are gone, market's price discovery process will find the new equilibrium over the next few months. Enjoy the ride
To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
<< <i>Multiple sources indicate that the Mint is now shipping a large number of the uncirculated gold coins. The good news, these are very likely freshly minted coins., given the significant quantity. The bad news, the final mintage is going to be very close to 5615. In fact, a few dealers are selling at Bay to hedge their incoming shipment. Some of them may price aggressively to balance their forthcoming credit card charge. Once those liquidity driven sellers are gone, market's price discovery process will find the new equilibrium over the next few months. Enjoy the ride >>
So, has everyone here that had a backorder had their order filled with this short strike? If they were striking them, why would they just strike a few thousand more and had them back up for sale? For your sake, I hope you are right.
<< <i>Are we at the point where 5,615 is considered "bad news?" That's still a LOT lower than CVS, which rountinely sells for what, $1200-$1500. >>
It's all about expectations. 5615 is a very solid number. But we may end up with 5100 without this last minute short strike. As a result, it will become much harder for MS70FS to sell above 2000. Of course, most people placed their orders just before the soldout are celebrating now.
To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
There are many scenarios that account for the b/o status and what that means. Until the Mint officially divulges that information it is purely speculative whether or not more of anything was restruck. And don't count on the contractor salesperson on the phone to really know either. There has been many cases in the past they were debunked as well.
I'm personally of the opinion that the Mint simply doesn't fire up the presses again for a handful of strikes -- especially at the end of the year when 2014 production has already ramped up.
Refs: MCM,Fivecents,Julio,Robman,Endzone,Coiny,Agentjim007,Musky1011,holeinone1972,Tdec1000,Type2,bumanchu, Metalsman,Wondercoin,Pitboss,Tomohawk,carew4me,segoja,thebigeng,jlc_coin,mbogoman,sportsmod,dragon,tychojoe,Schmitz7,claychaser,and many OTHERS
Comments
<< <i>Oddly tho, the proofs never seem to carry a big premium for low mintages. >>
This does seem to be the case. I've never understood it.
<< <i>Good luck to anyone buying this coin in aftermarket prices now. >>
Half, do you know something that the market does not know yet
<< <i>
<< <i>Oddly tho, the proofs never seem to carry a big premium for low mintages. >>
This does seem to be the case. I've never understood it. >>
Collectors gravitate towards proofs, as shown by the fact that they regularly outsell uncirculated versions by a wide margin. Proofs highlight the design elements by contrasting them with the fields, are more aesthetically pleasing overall, and are more impressive when shown to friends and acquaintances.
Investors/speculators gravitate towards the uncirculated versions due mainly to their lower mintages.
The lower premiums for the proofs can be explained by their typically higher mintages (compared to uncs.) and lack of speculative interest. The demand profiles for proofs and uncs. are very different from each other.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>
<< <i>Good luck to anyone buying this coin in aftermarket prices now. >>
Half, do you know something that the market does not know yet
yes, some idiots have bought some graded uncs at ridiculous prices, most likely based off the excitement in these threads. But excitement wears off and wondercoin will bring some newly graded coins to market soon.
I wouldn't have touched the prices of those graded ones that went off earlier this week. Even lower priced ones would be fully priced retail with little near and intermediate term upside, imo.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Good luck to anyone buying this coin in aftermarket prices now. >>
Half, do you know something that the market does not know yet
yes, some idiots have bought some graded uncs at ridiculous prices, most likely based off the excitement in these threads. But excitement wears off and wondercoin will bring some newly graded coins to market soon.
I wouldn't have touched the prices of those graded ones that went off earlier this week. Even lower priced ones would be fully priced retail with little near and intermediate term upside, imo. >>
Wondercoin
So I'm hoping I didn't overpay too much. And while I know the MacArthur Unc is probably the definite rarity, I'm sensing that the proof numbers will also be pretty low.
Wondercoin
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Good luck to anyone buying this coin in aftermarket prices now. >>
Half, do you know something that the market does not know yet
yes, some idiots have bought some graded uncs at ridiculous prices, most likely based off the excitement in these threads. But excitement wears off and wondercoin will bring some newly graded coins to market soon.
I wouldn't have touched the prices of those graded ones that went off earlier this week. Even lower priced ones would be fully priced retail with little near and intermediate term upside, imo. >>
full disclosure note:
I quit having mine graded, but I would be interested in scoring some graded ones of these just in case
but no at those last prices by a long shot.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Good luck to anyone buying this coin in aftermarket prices now. >>
Half, do you know something that the market does not know yet
yes, some idiots have bought some graded uncs at ridiculous prices, most likely based off the excitement in these threads. But excitement wears off and wondercoin will bring some newly graded coins to market soon.
I wouldn't have touched the prices of those graded ones that went off earlier this week. Even lower priced ones would be fully priced retail with little near and intermediate term upside, imo. >>
full disclosure note:
I quit having mine graded, but I would be interested in scoring some graded ones of these just in case
but no at those last prices by a long shot. >>
As was noted on a related thread, the Army proof is [currently] lowest at ~17k. However, MacArthur could topple that if the proofs sell out as fast after going to backordered status as the Unc did.
And the price of the slabbed proof has started to rise.
As was noted on a related thread, the Army proof is [currently] lowest at ~17k. However, MacArthur could topple that if the proofs sell out as fast after going to backordered status as the Unc did.
And the price of the slabbed proof has started to rise
RichR: I understand, but the Army proof gold tends to sell (often) BELOW US Mint original issue price even today. So, with a little luck, the proof MacArthur ends up being somewhere in the low 16,000's. Will 16,000 vs 17,000 really make any difference?
Wondercoin
<< <i>RichR - How can the proof mintage be "low" on this one when they sold an additional 10,000 proof coins in the 2 pc. sets in addition to single coin sales? Or, am I confusing this with something else?
Wondercoin >>
The previous "king" of the $5 gold commems was the Smithsonian at 21,840. They show a modest premium. In 2011, that was eclipsed twice by the Army and Medals OH at 17-18k. SSB was close to at just over 18k. Prices seem rather flat on these compared to their very low numbers. Overdate gave a plausible cause, but it still seems these low mintages are undervalued.
Now with MacA prf possibly lower yet (including set sales, total about 17k), will they experience anything like the Uncs'?
EDITED to respond to Wondercoin -- 16k vs 17k? Apparently this is making a diff with the Unc Mac's.... The "lowest" seems to carry some prestige for some coins, but not all evidently.
Box of 20
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Oddly tho, the proofs never seem to carry a big premium for low mintages. >>
This does seem to be the case. I've never understood it. >>
Collectors gravitate towards proofs, as shown by the fact that they regularly outsell uncirculated versions by a wide margin. Proofs highlight the design elements by contrasting them with the fields, are more aesthetically pleasing overall, and are more impressive when shown to friends and acquaintances.
Investors/speculators gravitate towards the uncirculated versions due mainly to their lower mintages.
The lower premiums for the proofs can be explained by their typically higher mintages (compared to uncs.) and lack of speculative interest. The demand profiles for proofs and uncs. are very different from each other. >>
Very interesting. Thanks!!
(l8-)>>
<< <i>Was one ngc ms70er just sold on eBay at 1295? Unbelievable price action. >>
Correction, it was sold at 900 on best offer terms, in line with my expectation, given that mint sealed coins are priced around 800.
2013 5-Star Generals Commemorative Coin Program Uncirculated Clad Half-Dollar (5G6) backorder status
new key of clad half dollar ?
Correction that is 5k need to be sold between the singles and profile collection.
Box of 20
its a gamble but might be worth the risk
<< <i>I bought 15 clads and have them in hand. Not all in though on the clads. I doubt they minted 5k of these in their last striking last week. Between the profiles collection and the singles they need to sell around 9K or more not to become the key. >>
I think it's closer than that -- last I saw the halves were about 3k from the Army mintage. It may be a total guess at this point since the next production update from the Mint will be at the same time as sales close next Tuesday. It's very plausible that 3k+ could sell during this final week.
<< <i>The Proof 5 Star General Now Sold Out! The Clad Half also! >>
So the train has left the station?
take care of that.
<< <i>Well we wont have to wait long. Next update to sales 5 pm tomorrow. >>
preliminary data from mint
sale last week
proof about 300
clad half about 3000
uncirculated still 5700.
Vietnam Vet 1968-1969
I think we've had some hiccups on the xls updates, where they have been revised greatly
<< <i>Your prelim data is fetched from where? and as of when?
I think we've had some hiccups on the xls updates, where they have been revised greatly >>
That's why I used "preliminary".
The hypothetical question is:
Who will take one for the team to ensure this years issue IS the lowest? i.e. cancellation of large late order?
<< <i>Multiple sources indicate that the Mint is now shipping a large number of the uncirculated gold coins. The good news, these are very likely freshly minted coins., given the significant quantity. The bad news, the final mintage is going to be very close to 5615. In fact, a few dealers are selling at Bay to hedge their incoming shipment. Some of them may price aggressively to balance their forthcoming credit card charge. Once those liquidity driven sellers are gone, market's price discovery process will find the new equilibrium over the next few months. Enjoy the ride
So, has everyone here that had a backorder had their order filled with this short strike? If they were striking them, why would they just strike a few thousand more and had them back up for sale? For your sake, I hope you are right.
<< <i>Are we at the point where 5,615 is considered "bad news?" That's still a LOT lower than CVS, which rountinely sells for what, $1200-$1500. >>
It's all about expectations. 5615 is a very solid number. But we may end up with 5100 without this last minute short strike. As a result, it will become much harder for MS70FS to sell above 2000. Of course, most people placed their orders just before the soldout are celebrating now.
The coin was probably minted to the tune of 6,000 pieces - some, of course, returned/damaged/etc.
Net 5,400-5,800
<< <i>Last minute short strike?? Not a chance. Didnt happen.
The coin was probably minted to the tune of 6,000 pieces - some, of course, returned/damaged/etc.
Net 5,400-5,800 >>
Yes, It didn't happen. The earth is also flat.
A lot to say with very little factual evidence to back up your comments.
Not the US Mint's MO. Many of us have been tracking these types of issues for years.
<< <i>Like I said - not a chance.
A lot to say with very little factual evidence to back up your comments.
Not the US Mint's MO. Many of us have been tracking these types of issues for years. >>
Call the mint and you will find out. Hope you were there when Hunt brothers cornered the silver market, It was fun....
I'm personally of the opinion that the Mint simply doesn't fire up the presses again for a handful of strikes -- especially at the end of the year when 2014 production has already ramped up.
<< <i>Last minute short strike?? Not a chance. Didnt happen.
The coin was probably minted to the tune of 6,000 pieces - some, of course, returned/damaged/etc.
Net 5,400-5,800 >>
Where are these "Multiple sources indicate that the Mint is now shipping a large number of the uncirculated gold coins."
<< <i>Call the mint and you will find out. Hope you were there when Hunt brothers cornered the silver market, It was fun.... >>
Good luck with receiving that info from the US Mint. Now we know that comment should be trashed.
And BTW, I was there and active in the market at that time too.
<< <i>Call the mint and you will find out. >>
Is that your "Multiple sources"??????