Gold or Apple

Justacommeman · May 5, 2012 6:34PM

Both have had about a 12% pullback from their highs.

Question. If you could only buy one and hold it over the next 12 months which would it be and why? Follow up question. What if you could only buy and hold one for the next five years. Which and why.

Gold is at around 1640 and Apple around 565.

MJ

Twinturbo · May 5, 2012 8:22PM

Probably Apple
They're expanding and the fact is I bought them back in early 2008, less than $100 when I purchased them. So I feel they're a good move, however I wouldn't buy at todays prices, too steep, not enough margins to make profit, too much risk for gain.
As for gold, theres typically a run up in april/may for precious metals, this is their general peak season, this year seemed to be lacking, very significantly. I prefer silver over gold, however I'm not a rich man so I can't play a rich mans game, I know a couple stackers who have literally stack kilo bars of gold as investment. Usually one per couple weeks or month. Im sure they're doing quite well.

However like i said, its largely due to my preference, all good things must come to na end, and one day that will be gold and apple. Apple will go before gold though.

derryb · May 5, 2012 8:28PM

gold and gold
why? dollar destruction will not be reversed.

PerryHall · May 5, 2012 8:30PM

<< gold and gold
why? dollar destruction will not be reversed. >>

DoubleEagle59 · May 5, 2012 8:34PM

12months....It's a toss-up between Apple and Gold.

5 years...no brainer for Gold!!

ricko · May 5, 2012 8:54PM

Gold....Cheers, RickO

Justacommeman · May 5, 2012 9:22PM

While both gold and Apple couldn't be more different they both have flourished mightily in the same environment and relative time frame. I bought gold cheap and have held it. I bought Apple cheap ($30) smart and sold it cheap ($80) moron move.

I think if you held a gun to my head and I had to only pick one today it would be Apple. Certainly for me not a slam dunk. maybe semi emotional on my part. I reserve the right to change my mind throughout this thread

MJ

bronco2078 · May 5, 2012 10:10PM

What bothers me about apple is the things they make money on are what I view as fluff. People use the heck out of them but iphones and ipads seem to be at the end of a chain of, I don't know, excess or maybe prosperity.

If the economy gets better fine then they will sell more. If things get worse then ipads will get trimmed iphones will get traded for cheaper more utilitarian phones whatever.

I know people that are out of work that have iphones and it makes me wonder if things have peaked for apple.

I wouldn't think about things like that at $30 a share at all. Contemplating buying in at $565 a share those things horrify me.

I own a cellphone but its 5 years old and I bought it used off ebay so I'm not an apple customer

renman95 · May 5, 2012 11:01PM

Didn't we do this with Google five years ago? Both were smoewhere around $600.

CCC2010 · May 5, 2012 11:07PM

Dont really know which one is better but i just wanted to share this link that i just read via the coinflation website about Gold. Link to article about Gold.

roadrunner · May 5, 2012 11:38PM

<< gold and gold
why? dollar destruction will not be reversed. >>

What he said!

Goog $600? Too funny. When that discussion first came out years ago I was firmly in the gold>google or Dow camp. One could say we've only made the
problems worse since that discussion (ie more fiat, more debt, more derivatives). Gold will follow the inverse of fiat and debt until resolution. It's also
quite possible that blue chips like Apple will behave as a secondary type inflationary safe haven and rise as well as fiat/debt expands. Note that inflation technically
has to do with monetary printing/key stroking...not prices.

derryb · May 6, 2012 12:22AM

As protectionism kicks in I wouldn't be surprised to see Apple's cheap foreign labor begin to cost them in terms of tariffs.

Justacommeman · May 6, 2012 12:34AM

Now that I think about it I saw a solid gold I Pad case in Hong Kong last month. (for real). Perhaps that is the answer. MJ

MsMorrisine · May 6, 2012 12:36AM

I'm going to cheat and say that AAPL will pull back more from here, and that's where I'd get in.

so AAPL at lower prices.

I think China sales will support AAPL.

MsMorrisine · May 6, 2012 12:36AM

<< gold and gold
why? dollar destruction will not be reversed. >>

I'm only thinking 12 months out. longer than that, much longer, gold and more gold.

MsMorrisine · May 6, 2012 12:48AM

<< I reserve the right to change my mind throughout this thread

>>

As do I

Europe is a tricky situation, but if the Eurozone start having trouble with the newly elected people, well, Dollar Rises and gold falls. AAPL could still tumble, too, but it does have good China sales to help eventhough China is slowing and may continue to slow with a slowing Eurozone. If the trouble with the Eurozone clears, the dollar falls, gold rises, and AAPL could also rise on perceived economic potential. It's a race, but one I think AAPL will win because I think they can make themselves grow faster than I think the currency risks can play out.

We shall see.

roadrunner · May 6, 2012 1:08AM

Europe is a tricky situation, but if the Eurozone start having trouble with the newly elected people, well, Dollar Rises and gold falls.

Euro drops, dollar rises.... and gold falls has been the shorter term norm for a while. But even in this case the dollar is falling in terms of purchasing power, it's just falling slower vs. the Euro. There's nothing to stop gold from rising in price vs. both of them in the short term. And over the past 5-6 years both have consistently fallen vs. gold. Depreciating fiat currencies have no chance of holding up long term as both are ultimately headed to zero. It's never made sense to me why we value the falling dollar against other falling currencies. Would make much more sense to value the dollar against Apple, Oil or Gold.

derryb · May 6, 2012 1:13AM

Further european economic crisis will result in further US economic crisis. While the dollar will temporarily strengthen as the euro weakens, the spillover damage to the US economy will hasten further QE (good for gold). Today's european election outcomes are major dominoes in the US's economic future. Current major threat to the dollar is its declining world-wide power in international trade. Keep an eye on China's efforts to ensure the yuan becomes the new world reserve currency. Winner of the world reserve currency battle will become the new "go to" fiat asset in times of economic uncertainty.

MsMorrisine · May 6, 2012 1:22AM

<< While the dollar will temporarily strengthen as the euro weakens, the spillover damage to the US economy will hasten further QE (good for gold). >>

things are still too good for QE3. I think it'd take at least a couple of Qs of contraction before the Fed even starts to Consider a new QE. That's not happening this Q, and even if it happens the 2 Qs after, it's not going to kick in until the end of the 12 months.

I'm still with the AAPL call for now.

revoldlog · May 6, 2012 1:23AM

I will go for gold in the medium to long term.

After Steve Jobs left, I haven't brought a single Apple product. I really feel the Apple product is not up to the "pre-Jobs" standard anymore.

iPhone 4S is just a minor upgrade from 4 in my opinion. And iPad3 cannot be called an upgrade to me (thicker and heavier).

It is really difficult to find replacement for Steve Jobs, but I am sure there will be plenty of replacement for politicians to spend our way into "prosperity".

Justacommeman · May 6, 2012 1:28AM

Apple has successfully navigated the housing crisis the stock market meltdown and the current situation in Europe the same as gold has. In some respects it is the gold standard of the stock market. Like gold at has been counted out by many, time and time again. Yes, I'm fascinated by the enigma that it is. I'm currently in China. The IPhone is close to $700 US here if you could get them. At the HK/China border they search for iPhone contraband likes it's heroin. God forbid you have two of them on you. The Apple story is just getting started here. MJ

Justacommeman · May 6, 2012 1:37AM

<< I will go for gold in the medium to long term.

After Steve Jobs left, I haven't brought a single Apple product. I really feel the Apple product is not up to the "pre-Jobs" standard anymore.

iPhone 4S is just a minor upgrade from 4 in my opinion. And iPad3 cannot be called an upgrade to me (thicker and heavier).

It is really difficult to find replacement for Steve Jobs, but I am sure there will be plenty of replacement for politicians to spend our way into "prosperity". >>

Well Steve jobs left because he died. Everything that Apple has delivered from his death in October to now he was part of and privy to. He was part of everything you mentioned. It will be interesting to see what will actually happen in the next year. The stock was at $400 when he died. It went to $640 in about five months after his death.

MJ

jmski52 · May 6, 2012 2:31AM

Obamacare hasn't been repealed. The tax increases are still scheduled for 2013. The banking system hasn't been reformed. EPA has business tied up in knots and no legislation is forthcoming to untie it.

Apple has some advantages that other manufacturers don't have, but they still have to thread the needle to do well. Does QE help Apple, because that is going to be the main factor. It sure won't be a pickup in the overall economy.

johnny9434 · May 6, 2012 3:46AM

gold. apple is paper for the barrel to burn in later

Tiggs2012 · May 6, 2012 6:35AM

It still surprises me that lots of people don't understand or appreciate Apple despite their success. Under most scenarios, AAPL will continue outperforming gold going forward but both should do well. Best to have both, really, and think anyone who doesn't needs to re-evaluate.

golfer72 · May 6, 2012 8:15AM

Look at Apple's chart. the stock has topped. I will take Gold.

derryb · May 6, 2012 8:37AM

<< Look at Apple's chart. the stock has topped. I will take Gold. >>

Same can be said for gold, yet I don't agree.

MsMorrisine · May 6, 2012 8:53AM

<< Look at Apple's chart. the stock has topped. I will take Gold. >>

how about earnings growth?

unlike the dot.coms back in the dot.com days, AAPL has earnings.

The question to ask is "what is AAPL's future growth?"

mariner67 · May 6, 2012 9:50AM

"unlike the dot.coms back in the dot.com days, AAPL has earnings."

As I recall, one of the main criticisms of gold is the fact at it has no earnings.
We each see and believe what we want.
Some of us end up being correct and others not.
Best of luck to us all!

cohodk · May 6, 2012 10:07AM

Both will drop 20%, then I'd buy them-----both.

Justacommeman · May 6, 2012 10:31AM

<< Both will drop 20%, then I'd buy them-----both. >>

gold at 1500 and APPLE at 500 sounds good to me. I've been short APPL. Just closed it on Friday. It's at support. Looking to buy and hold and searching for the right entry. MJ

tydye · May 6, 2012 10:36AM

i agree - both

revoldlog · May 6, 2012 10:36AM

<< 

<< I will go for gold in the medium to long term.

After Steve Jobs left, I haven't brought a single Apple product. I really feel the Apple product is not up to the "pre-Jobs" standard anymore.

iPhone 4S is just a minor upgrade from 4 in my opinion. And iPad3 cannot be called an upgrade to me (thicker and heavier).

It is really difficult to find replacement for Steve Jobs, but I am sure there will be plenty of replacement for politicians to spend our way into "prosperity". >>

Well Steve jobs left because he died. Everything that Apple has delivered from his death in October to now he was part of and privy to. He was part of everything you mentioned. It will be interesting to see what will actually happen in the next year. The stock was at $400 when he died. It went to $640 in about five months after his death.

MJ >>

Yes, I understand that within the coming few years, Apple's is still following Jobs' vision. This point is well taken. He was part of iPhone 4S and iPad 3, but I doubt he was as heavily involved as in iPhone 4 and iPad 2. My main point is the EXECUTION. Without his 100% presence, IMHO, Apple's product is already below Jobs' standard.

Well before Apple entered the iPod market, there were portable music players everywhere. And the Taiwan and Chinese companies already making less than $30 dollar MP3 players at that time. IMHO, Jobs' genius is not his vision of iPod, but his ability to motivate the whole company and delivered the world's best quality MP3 player and therefore created a big market for it. It is the same for iPhone and iPad. Apple was not the first player to enter all these markets, but they are the one who entered and set the gold standard in these markets. Moreover, for each product generation, they outdid themselves and made their previous version almost obsolete.

Jobs created the momentum for Apple, so I won't be surprised that Apple will do well and sell more products in the coming couple years. If someone driving at 120mph and stopped the gas, he will still be faster than most of the cars in the freeway for sometime, but eventually, he will be overtaken by others.

just my 2 cents.

cohodk · May 6, 2012 12:40PM

<< 

<< Both will drop 20%, then I'd buy them-----both. >>

gold at 1500 and APPLE at 500 sounds good to me. I've been short APPL. Just closed it on Friday. It's at support. Looking to buy and hold and searching for the right entry. MJ >>

I meant 20% from current prices.

MsMorrisine · May 6, 2012 12:59PM

<< "unlike the dot.coms back in the dot.com days, AAPL has earnings."

As I recall, one of the main criticisms of gold is the fact at it has no earnings.
We each see and believe what we want. >>

AAPL doesn't have earnings?

my statement was to say: "do not simply look at an ugly chart, say it is topped and falling apart (similar to those spectacular crashes from the dot.com days), and say it's cooked."

AAPL is still selling things and people are still buying.

The question with AAPL is not some "new paradigm" turning out to fail in the face of simple economics "where's the profit?"

AAPL has profit.

The question with AAPL is:

"what is the profit/loss outlook for the future?"

I also do not see this price level as definite support, however I think the cover on Friday was a good call simply because I'm not Greek nor French nor have an inside line on the polls there. Furthermore, the aftermath of the elections is yet to be seen.

AAPL could continute to sell Monday just as hard as it did on Friday. I see 525 then 500 as clear support levels. It's clearly broken the uptrend fromearly 2012 to Apr. It's broken 600 even after a 20% earnings beat above whisper numbers. It did close at 560 the day of earnings, that may turn into support.

What changes or even trumps TA and support, etc. is news and fundamentals. Volume on this sell off has been under average, too. If we see some hard selling we could blow through 560. If we don't 560 may stay. Although, personally, I'd rather look at where AAPL's future profit potential is going to go based on the current and developing macro environment and see what AAPL could do in a bad case.

Europe is a huge factor right now, for gold and AAPL.

I will note that Obama pledged to close Gitmo before the election, but it has yet to fully close. Some in the leadership still in the government finally clued him into how dangerous some of these terrorists are.

The point? We may see some of these newly elected people get schooled on how bad things really are right now without the potential for a Greek bankruptcy and further increses in French government spending.

Personally, looking at how some of how our banks hid just how bad things really were from the gov't and the public bad in the 08-09 time frame, I'm thinking the Eurozone gov'ts have a bit of an idea that they will be facing multiple large bank failures in the face of some of these countries' defaults.

It's touch and go right now. I'm not sure how Eurozone politics will turn into Eurozone economic reality and then in turn global economic reality.

If these new guys calm down a lot, this could be a great buying opportunity for both gold and AAPL. If not, well, hopefully people in China will be buying gold using their iPhones.

Justacommeman · May 6, 2012 1:07PM

<< 

<< 

<< Both will drop 20%, then I'd buy them-----both. >>

gold at 1500 and APPLE at 500 sounds good to me. I've been short APPL. Just closed it on Friday. It's at support. Looking to buy and hold and searching for the right entry. MJ >>

I meant 20% from current prices. >>

I know. I was just trying to save you. MJ

renman95 · May 6, 2012 2:09PM

<< Apple has successfully navigated the housing crisis the stock market meltdown and the current situation in Europe the same as gold has. In some respects it is the gold standard of the stock market. Like gold at has been counted out by many, time and time again. Yes, I'm fascinated by the enigma that it is. I'm currently in China. The IPhone is close to $700 US here if you could get them. At the HK/China border they search for iPhone contraband likes it's heroin. God forbid you have two of them on you. The Apple story is just getting started here. MJ >>

MJ, that's a nice store in HK Central. Nice view.

Justacommeman · May 6, 2012 2:46PM

<< 

<< Apple has successfully navigated the housing crisis the stock market meltdown and the current situation in Europe the same as gold has. In some respects it is the gold standard of the stock market. Like gold at has been counted out by many, time and time again. Yes, I'm fascinated by the enigma that it is. I'm currently in China. The IPhone is close to $700 US here if you could get them. At the HK/China border they search for iPhone contraband likes it's heroin. God forbid you have two of them on you. The Apple story is just getting started here. MJ >>

MJ, that's a nice store in HK Central. Nice view.

>>

Why yes its is

MJ

cohodk · May 6, 2012 10:35PM

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< Both will drop 20%, then I'd buy them-----both. >>

gold at 1500 and APPLE at 500 sounds good to me. I've been short APPL. Just closed it on Friday. It's at support. Looking to buy and hold and searching for the right entry. MJ >>

I meant 20% from current prices. >>

I know. I was just trying to save you. MJ >>

You truely are TMIMITW.

Julio · May 6, 2012 10:45PM

Not a clue with those time frames. It's a daily game now. Play accordingly. Take care.

Justacommeman · May 6, 2012 10:53PM

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< Both will drop 20%, then I'd buy them-----both. >>

gold at 1500 and APPLE at 500 sounds good to me. I've been short APPL. Just closed it on Friday. It's at support. Looking to buy and hold and searching for the right entry. MJ >>

I meant 20% from current prices. >>

I know. I was just trying to save you. MJ >>

You truely are TMIMITW. >>

gsa1fan · May 6, 2012 10:54PM

How has Walmart done since Sam Walton passed?

guitarwes · May 6, 2012 11:07PM

If the printin' presses keep runnin', you're gonna need gold to buy apples.

tneig · May 6, 2012 11:34PM

With my money; I easily choose gold. I have and will be buying it.

If I wanted Apple at the top, I would have bought it, but I wouldn't do that, and don't want it. Get it later, after it drops all the way.

Justacommeman · May 6, 2012 11:55PM

<< With my money; I easily choose gold. I have and will be buying it.

If I wanted Apple at the top, I would have bought it, but I wouldn't do that, and don't want it. Get it later, after it drops all the way. >>

I will continue to play devil's advocate. Both gold and Apple are exactly 12% from their respective top so that point is moot

printing presses have been equally as good for gold as for Apple.

Gold guys, I remain unconvinced so far in this thread

For the record I own by far share of gold and no Apple outside of my 401K. I will continue to buy gold as financial insurance but not as an investment.

MJ

guitarwes · May 7, 2012 12:02AM

I think Apple is maxed out on ideas and upgrades and since their brainchild is gone it's either stagnant or downhill from here. Maybe not in the near future (after the rest of the world catches up to the new products). Probably % wise, Apple over gold in the next year, but gold over apple in the next 5 years.

jmski52 · May 7, 2012 4:57AM

I agree with guitarwes. How did Apple do the last time Steve Jobs wasn't around?

Baley · May 7, 2012 7:00AM

Can I say neither?

I'd prefer to look for something that might quintuple in a few years, not something that already has.

MsMorrisine · May 7, 2012 7:15AM

fear not!

that's what the market said today?

I disagree.

Priced in?

I disagree.

No one in France nor Greece who was just elected has changed anything.

The fear will come in when they start making waves.

Justacommeman · May 9, 2012 12:51AM

Apple refuses to get into my buying zone (like always)

cohodk · May 9, 2012 1:12AM

<< Can I say neither?

I'd prefer to look for something that might quintuple in a few years, not something that already has. >>

Coulda tripled your money on this weeks AAPL 580 call in about 90 min today.

Gold or Apple

Comments