<< <i>The sales report should be out later today. The cut off should be 1/15/2012. What will be the number??? I think it might be slight over 8900. Of course, I hope it stays below 8883. >>
derryb noted: "last week's sales figures (8,637) had them 246 less than the 2008 W $10 uncirc. This could become the lowest known mintage gold eagle to date."
<< <i>The sales report should be out later today. The cut off should be 1/15/2012. What will be the number??? I think it might be slight over 8900. Of course, I hope it stays below 8883. >>
derryb noted: "last week's sales figures (8,637) had them 246 less than the 2008 W $10 uncirc. This could become the lowest known mintage gold eagle to date."
Why do you think that they'll be over 8900? >>
If I remember correctly (please correct if I am wrong), last Wednesday had a price increase, and it usually triggers more buying. 2nd reason is after it initially went to backorder, some people will put on a few backorder just as an insurance. I think these backorders will also count in the sales report too (I am not sure about it though).
Combining these two effects, I think a weekly sales of >300 is very possible.
<< <i>Combining these two effects, I think a weekly sales of >300 is very possible. >>
Ugh, I sure hope not ... IMO the potential of this coin is extremely limited if it does not come in under the '08W $10 (see my dissertation on the first page of this thread).
<< <i>sales report will be out tomorrow >>
Thanks for the news 92vette. Even though I only wound up with two of these, I'll be checking coinupdate every five minutes tomorrow to see if these turned out to be a winner or not.
<< <i>Remember the 2011 numbers are sales figures. Are we comparing to audited final mintages of 2008? >>
Yup. That's why I'm hoping the coin comes in at least a hundred or more lower than the 08W $10. The final number could easily go up or down a few hundred and in this case that's a big deal. Of course if these heat up before then than it won't matter as I'll dump mine and move on .
<< <i>Do you remember the audited final mintage? >>
8,883 is the final number of the 2008W burnished $10 age. I posted this on the first page: As it stands, it looks like there's a very good chance this coin will be the new #1 all time lowest mintage American Gold Eagle!The current king is the 2008 W (burnished) quarter ounce $10 age w/ 8,883 made and it sells for $1400+ dollars! The mint sold 77 of these last week bringing the total to 8,637. Since they went to backorder yesterday it's quite likely they didn't sell 246 of these in the abbreviated week. (They've only sold more than 250 in a week once in the last few months IIRC.)
I would be curious to know if a study has been done to look at comparisons of sales to final numbers. For instance do we find that slow sell outs usually end up with lower final numbers do to resales versus a higher final number on fast sellout do to overselling and few returns. It would be interesting if that pattern existed.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
"The current king is the 2008 W (burnished) quarter ounce $10 age w/ 8,883 made and it sells for $1400+ dollars! The mint sold 77 of these last week bringing the total to 8,637. Since they went to backorder yesterday it's quite likely they didn't sell 246 of these in the abbreviated week. (They've only sold more than 250 in a week once in the last few months IIRC.)"
1. Is anyone on these boards paying $1,400 for raw or MS69 graded $10 age? Pm me if you are.
2. The 8,637 figure came from a report back on 1/9/12 which reported on the sales for the prior week. So, I am expecting a report tomorrow which would report on sales last week. Then a final report a week from now which would report sales from this week. So, we are 2 reports away from current mintage figures, not one report ... right?
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
2. The 8,637 figure came from a report back on 1/9/12 which reported on the sales for the prior week. So, I am expecting a report tomorrow which would report on sales last week. Then a final report a week from now which would report sales from this week. So, we are 2 reports away from final figures, not one report ... right?
Wondercoin >>
I believe the 1/9/12 reported show the sales number up to 1/8/12, so we are 1 report and 2 days away from the final figures.
Looks like these were the figures through last Monday, so one more week to report? (they weren't available to purchase today, I checked).
The full US Mint numismatic product sales report appears below. The figures are compiled through January 9, 2012. The first number column represents total sales through the reporting date, and the second number column represents the change in sales since the last report. Products with sales followed by an asterisk (*) are no longer available from the United States Mint. Currently available US Mint products can be found online at http://catalog.usmint.gov/
Product Sales Change
2011 AMERICAN EAGLE GOLD UNCIRCULATED COIN One ounce 8,637 77
Mitch I never said these were a homerun/slam dunk. I even listed reasons not to buy this coin on the first page.
>>>1. Is anyone on these boards paying $1,400 for raw or MS69 graded $10 age? Pm me if you are.
I never mentioned a grade, but rather I was stating that the current key is in the $1400 range. I realize I know next to nothing about when it comes to coins, but eBay auctions don't lie.. Again, just to be clear, I was simply trying to point out the fact that the current key sells for a premium regardless of whether its $1200 raw or $1400 pcgs70. Nothing more, nothing less.
>>>2. Then a final report a week from now which would report sales from this week. So, we are 2 reports away from current mintage figures, not one report ... right?
I think you're on the money with that assessment. The fact these went to backorder last Thursday should mean that the next round of numbers (last week's sales) are *roughly* the total. It all comes down to how many backordered orders are going to be filled from all the folks that were late to the party. Does anyone here know more about guesstimating mint inventory when items go to backorder?
IMO the last week will show big jump - lots of people (including myself) ordered when they went dark.
My Mint order still shows "Backordered" - whether or not it will get filled is still a big question.
However the final mintage numbers will not be known for a while but they have a chance to be very close - again IMO
Any way I look at it owning 2008 W $10 at almost 4X melt or owning 2011 W at only 20% more over melt with nearly identical mintage is not a bad option.
Moderncoin ... First off, you are doing a GREAT JOB on these boards opining about potential winners and losers ... keep up the good work! I like your "pros and cons" approach.
Regarding the 08-W $10's ... I was seriously asking that question.
Regarding the 11-W reports ... I was merely pointing out that I believe we are 2 reports away from current numbers, not 1 report. Yes, the last report might only cover 2 days, but, nonetheless, it is a report.
When I write my comments, I generally have no "agenda". I own plenty of 2011-W $50 Gold Eagles. Time will tell if they outperform a number of other 2011 products I purchased and continue to purchase.
Wondercoin
edited to add: Ebay Item number: 170756063927 ... about $1,175 after credit card rebates on the 08-W $10 I see. A little over $750 above spot on the coin. Now, let's all hope "demand" for a 1 oz. coin shows up!!
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Thanks 'mang . After reading your reply I reread my post and I guess it sounded a little snotty on some level. That certainly was not my intention whatsoever .
It is important to remember that even if the '11-w $50 finals audits at say 8,500 coins, in the real world the 06 reverse proof is the true key which will always be harder to come by. The RP was only available as part of an expensive set and a very significant percentage (surely more than 15%) will always be locked up the those 3-coin sets.
<< <i>I would be curious to know if a study has been done to look at comparisons of sales to final numbers.
Answer: It has.
For instance do we find that slow sell outs usually end up with lower final numbers do to resales versus a higher final number on fast sellout do to overselling and few returns.
Answer: Thats correct most of the time but not always.
It would be interesting if that pattern existed. >>
Well boys it looks like I'm going to sit this particular issue out. With the 25th ann. sets and the $5 unc. army and moh coins I've extended myself as far as my budget will allow for the next few months, but congrats to all who were able to order before they went dark, from the mint and other venues as well.
Beer is Proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy -Benjamin Franklin-
That would be me. I have one last coin. Relisted it at a higher price until I see where the dust settles. Don't want to underprice it and can always take an offer if I decide what the right market price is. Heck, $3550 might be low when it is all over but I'll take that right now given the remaining uncertainty. --jerry
That would be me. I have one last coin. Relisted it at a higher price until I see where the dust settles. Don't want to underprice it and can always take an offer if I decide what the right market price is. Heck, $3550 might be low when it is all over but I'll take that right now given the remaining uncertainty. --jerry >>
The 20th anniversary gold has a mintage of 9,996. Now they are about $2500 after 5 years and they are the key to not only the proof gold $50 registry set and Red Book listings its also the key of THE COMPLETE REVERSE PROOF TYPE SET AND THERE ARE A FAIR NUMBER OF US THAT COLLECT REVERSE PROOFS.
The 2008w $10 gold is say $1400 after 4 years and it has a 8883 mintage. Well if this new 2011w gold eagle does fall out around 8500 coins then thats wonderful based on rarity in set its a $2000 coin maybe (that does not indicate it cant jump up and drop in the short term)..... AND if metals prices stay up what do you think the mint is going to strike to next year. Well that question boils down to predicting the scrap rate because they are going to have about the same target production run if high dollar gold is still the case. So while the coin is likely a great bullion coin that has a numismatic floor in case the metals get soft don’t look for high growth rates on a percentage basis over the next 4 years and its not likely to be any rarer than the 2012w if they strike one.
The only hope the coin has is if they dont make a 2012w $50 gold eagle. Then you have got a real coin.
<< <i>The 20th anniversary gold has a mintage of 9,996. Now they are about $2500 after 5 years and they are the key to not only the proof gold $50 registry set and Red Book listings its also the key of THE COMPLETE REVERSE PROOF TYPE SET AND THERE ARE A FAIR NUMBER OF US THAT COLLECT REVERSE PROOFS.
The 2008w $10 gold is say $1400 after 4 years and it has a 8883 mintage. Well if this new 2011w gold eagle does fall out around 8500 coins then thats wonderful based on rarity in set its a 2000 coin maybe (that does not indicate it cant jump up and drop in the short term)..... AND if metals prices stay up what do you think the mint is going to strike to next year. Well that question boils down to predicting the scrap rate because they are going to have about the same target production run if high dollar gold is still the case. So while the coin is likely a great bullion coin that has a numismatic floor in case the metals get soft don’t look for high growth rates on a percentage basis over the next 4 years.
JMHO.
Eric >>
Eric, What you are saying makes sense. However, I know of eagle collectors who skipped the reverse proof for various reasons including that it was a proof, or just an odd duck. How many were there? OTOH, how many eagle collectors are there? Still, 1 oz MS gold eagles are a popular series and it isn't clear to me that this coin will not end up in short supply. Look at what happened to the UHR. --Jerry
I think you're always going to have the initial frenzy when any low mintage mint product is unavailable. But as others have pointed out with some of the '06-'08-w plats even with an uber low mintage there's just not a lot of collector demand 3-4 years later.
Beer is Proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy -Benjamin Franklin-
Thanks for sharing your thoughts Eric. I was hoping you would comment on these. Clearly you're on the money when it comes to the possibility of the 2012W and it displacing this coin, but for just 7% over the cost of regular random date age this coin seemed like it had very little downside, and potentially a decent amount of upside so I bought a couple. Since it's a 1oz gold coin it's clear the coin isn't going to double or triple in value, but if we see a wave of interest and rising prices for a few months I'll certainly sell immediately and put the money back into other stuff.
<< <i>I think you're always going to have the initial frenzy when any low mintage mint product is unavailable. But as others have pointed out with some of the '06-'08-w plats even with an uber low mintage there's just not a lot of collector demand 3-4 years later. >>
check the current prices on 2008 W $10 uncirc. AGEs. Many more AGE collectors than APE collectors. Prices on these will continue to rise and hold, especially if they come in lower than the 08 W $10 uncirc.
Almost a given they will come in under 10K (Rev. Proof mintage).
through 2011 the US mint has released 212 different gold eagles. The 2006 $50 rev. proof was limited to 10k mintage (second lowest AGE mintage on record). No other eagle has a lower mintage than this except the 2008 W $10 uncirc that in MS70 currently sells for about 3.5X spot. Looks like the 2011 W $50 uncirc will stay under 10K mintage to become the second lowest mintage AGE and may very will come in under the 8,333 mintage of the 08 W $10 uncirc.
A winner for a long time for those that hold them. If they do half as well as the 30,125 mintage 1995 W ASE proof, there will be nice profits.
<< <i>The 20th anniversary gold has a mintage of 9,996. Now they are about $2500 after 5 years and they are the key to not only the proof gold $50 registry set and Red Book listings its also the key of THE COMPLETE REVERSE PROOF TYPE SET AND THERE ARE A FAIR NUMBER OF US THAT COLLECT REVERSE PROOFS.
The 2008w $10 gold is say $1400 after 4 years and it has a 8883 mintage. Well if this new 2011w gold eagle does fall out around 8500 coins then thats wonderful based on rarity in set its a $2000 coin maybe (that does not indicate it cant jump up and drop in the short term)..... AND if metals prices stay up what do you think the mint is going to strike to next year. Well that question boils down to predicting the scrap rate because they are going to have about the same target production run if high dollar gold is still the case. So while the coin is likely a great bullion coin that has a numismatic floor in case the metals get soft don’t look for high growth rates on a percentage basis over the next 4 years and its not likely to be any rarer than the 2012w if they strike one.
The only hope the coin has is if they dont make a 2012w $50 gold eagle. Then you have got a real coin.
JMHO.
Eric >>
Sounds like a good strategy would be to sell over the next few months if a '12 is announced and to hold for a while if not.
<< <i>The 20th anniversary gold has a mintage of 9,996. Now they are about $2500 after 5 years and they are the key to not only the proof gold $50 registry set and Red Book listings its also the key of THE COMPLETE REVERSE PROOF TYPE SET AND THERE ARE A FAIR NUMBER OF US THAT COLLECT REVERSE PROOFS. >>
Do not confuse "label" population with mintage. There were 9,996 2006 20th Anniversary Gold sets sold. It contained a $50 W proof and a $50 W uncirc. which each had a total mintage of 47,092 and 45,053 respectively. The 2006 W $50 uncirc. AGE was also sold in the 20th Anniversary Gold and Silver Eagle Set (sales of 19,145). There was no low mintage of 9,996 2006 W proof or uncirc. gold eagles - that is the number of special sets that contained coins that were also available through other purchases and sets. Their total sales is only part of the total mintage of the same coin marketed via other venues.
The 2011 W $50 uncirc is limited to just what the US mint sold as individual coins.
<< <i>The only hope the coin has is if they dont make a 2012w $50 gold eagle. Then you have got a real coin. >>
Appearance of 2012 W uncirc will not affect 2011 W premium UNLESS 2012 final sales are less than 10K.
"If they do half as well as the 30,125 mintage 1995 W ASE proof, there will be nice profits."
I've got a "boatload" of roughly "eleven thousand and change" mintage 08-W $50 MS gold burnished eagles ... they have not done "half as well" as that 30,125 mintage coin after 3 years? In fact, if I recall correctly, I read all over the boards 3 years ago how that MS $50 Gold Eagle was going to be a "killer" coin. I am still adding to my position ... I bought another one last week for about $15 over the cost of a generic bullion piece. My experience with these $50 08-W MS burnished Gold kind of supports Eric's view point ... no?
Wondercoin
P.S. Spot gold "bailed me out" of my mistake buying these "super low mintage" $50 08-W Burnished gold eagles. All the coins that I paid roughly $1,600 - $1,700/coin for when spot gold was $1,150 -$1,300/oz are now worth what I paid for them. I lost nothing really (other than my "lost opportunity cost") through my mistake on these as the gold spot bailed me out (so far). But, I waited and waited and waited for "demand" to show up to the $50 gold eagle party. Still waiting....
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
08 W $50 uncirc is currently fourth lowest mintage (soon to be fifth lowest) and competes with its three low mintage fractionals of the same year. I believe the 2011 W, based on mintage alone, will do much better. Today's APMEX sellout of raw and ebay being drained of MS70s under $2450 is good indication.
Comments
<< <i>grabbed another NGC 70 off ebay at 2250 and three raw from Apmex before the sellout. Wired payment to move to the front of the shipping line
Sounds like you did very well today!!
Please let us know whether you get your Mint order.
<< <i>grabbed another NGC 70 off ebay at 2250 and three raw from Apmex before the sellout. Wired payment to move to the front of the shipping line
Looks like you have already cornered the market
<< <i>The sales report should be out later today. The cut off should be 1/15/2012.
What will be the number??? I think it might be slight over 8900.
Of course, I hope it stays below 8883. >>
derryb noted: "last week's sales figures (8,637) had them 246 less than the 2008 W $10 uncirc. This could become the lowest known mintage gold eagle to date."
Why do you think that they'll be over 8900?
<< <i>
<< <i>The sales report should be out later today. The cut off should be 1/15/2012.
What will be the number??? I think it might be slight over 8900.
Of course, I hope it stays below 8883. >>
derryb noted: "last week's sales figures (8,637) had them 246 less than the 2008 W $10 uncirc. This could become the lowest known mintage gold eagle to date."
Why do you think that they'll be over 8900? >>
If I remember correctly (please correct if I am wrong), last Wednesday had a price increase, and it usually triggers more buying.
2nd reason is after it initially went to backorder, some people will put on a few backorder just as an insurance. I think these backorders will also count in the sales report too (I am not sure about it though).
Combining these two effects, I think a weekly sales of >300 is very possible.
<< <i>Combining these two effects, I think a weekly sales of >300 is very possible. >>
Ugh, I sure hope not
<< <i>sales report will be out tomorrow >>
Thanks for the news 92vette. Even though I only wound up with two of these, I'll be checking coinupdate every five minutes tomorrow to see if these turned out to be a winner or not.
<< <i>Remember the 2011 numbers are sales figures. Are we comparing to audited final mintages of 2008? >>
Do you remember the audited final mintage?
<< <i>Remember the 2011 numbers are sales figures. Are we comparing to audited final mintages of 2008? >>
Yup. That's why I'm hoping the coin comes in at least a hundred or more lower than the 08W $10. The final number could easily go up or down a few hundred and in this case that's a big deal. Of course if these heat up before then than it won't matter as I'll dump mine and move on
<< <i>Do you remember the audited final mintage? >>
8,883 is the final number of the 2008W burnished $10 age. I posted this on the first page:
As it stands, it looks like there's a very good chance this coin will be the new #1 all time lowest mintage American Gold Eagle!The current king is the 2008 W (burnished) quarter ounce $10 age w/ 8,883 made and it sells for $1400+ dollars! The mint sold 77 of these last week bringing the total to 8,637. Since they went to backorder yesterday it's quite likely they didn't sell 246 of these in the abbreviated week. (They've only sold more than 250 in a week once in the last few months IIRC.)
2006-W 45,053 15,164 15,188 20,643
2007-W 18,066 11,455 12,766 22,501
2008-W 11,908 15,682 8,883 12,657
2009-W N/A N/A N/A N/A
2010-W N/A N/A N/A N/A
2011-W ? N/A N/A N/A
Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
- Nick Giambruno Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.
1. Is anyone on these boards paying $1,400 for raw or MS69 graded $10 age? Pm me if you are.
2. The 8,637 figure came from a report back on 1/9/12 which reported on the sales for the prior week. So, I am expecting a report tomorrow which would report on sales last week. Then a final report a week from now which would report sales from this week. So, we are 2 reports away from current mintage figures, not one report ... right?
Wondercoin
<< <i>
2. The 8,637 figure came from a report back on 1/9/12 which reported on the sales for the prior week. So, I am expecting a report tomorrow which would report on sales last week. Then a final report a week from now which would report sales from this week. So, we are 2 reports away from final figures, not one report ... right?
Wondercoin >>
I believe the 1/9/12 reported show the sales number up to 1/8/12, so we are 1 report and 2 days away from the final figures.
Wondercoin
Looks like these were the figures through last Monday, so one more week to report? (they weren't available to purchase today, I checked).
The full US Mint numismatic product sales report appears below. The figures are compiled through January 9, 2012. The first number column represents total sales through the reporting date, and the second number column represents the change in sales since the last report. Products with sales followed by an asterisk (*) are no longer available from the United States Mint. Currently available US Mint products can be found online at http://catalog.usmint.gov/
Product Sales Change
2011 AMERICAN EAGLE GOLD UNCIRCULATED COIN
One ounce 8,637 77
>>>1. Is anyone on these boards paying $1,400 for raw or MS69 graded $10 age? Pm me if you are.
I never mentioned a grade, but rather I was stating that the current key is in the $1400 range. I realize I know next to nothing about when it comes to coins, but eBay auctions don't lie.. Again, just to be clear, I was simply trying to point out the fact that the current key sells for a premium regardless of whether its $1200 raw or $1400 pcgs70. Nothing more, nothing less.
>>>2. Then a final report a week from now which would report sales from this week. So, we are 2 reports away from current mintage figures, not one report ... right?
I think you're on the money with that assessment. The fact these went to backorder last Thursday should mean that the next round of numbers (last week's sales) are *roughly* the total. It all comes down to how many backordered orders are going to be filled from all the folks that were late to the party. Does anyone here know more about guesstimating mint inventory when items go to backorder?
My Mint order still shows "Backordered" - whether or not it will get filled is still a big question.
However the final mintage numbers will not be known for a while but they have a chance to be very close - again IMO
Any way I look at it owning 2008 W $10 at almost 4X melt or owning 2011 W at only 20% more over melt with nearly identical mintage is not a bad option.
Regarding the 08-W $10's ... I was seriously asking that question.
Regarding the 11-W reports ... I was merely pointing out that I believe we are 2 reports away from current numbers, not 1 report. Yes, the last report might only cover 2 days, but, nonetheless, it is a report.
When I write my comments, I generally have no "agenda". I own plenty of 2011-W $50 Gold Eagles. Time will tell if they outperform a number of other 2011 products I purchased and continue to purchase.
Wondercoin
edited to add: Ebay Item number: 170756063927 ... about $1,175 after credit card rebates on the 08-W $10 I see. A little over $750 above spot on the coin. Now, let's all hope "demand" for a 1 oz. coin shows up!!
<< <i> I like your "pros and cons" approach. >>
Thanks 'mang
Wondercoin
<< <i>So is 8882 final mintage report the magic number or is a tie good enough?! >>
8882 or less, IMHO.
Of course, only the final sales reports will be out soon. The final, finals will take a while.
That said, if the final sales report is substantially less, then a new king is crowned.
<< <i>
<< <i>So is 8882 final mintage report the magic number or is a tie good enough?! >>
8882 or less, IMHO.
Of course, only the final sales reports will be out soon. The final, finals will take a while.
That said, if the final sales report is substantially less, then a new king is crowned. >>
Thanks, fingers crossed.
Same seller just re-listed one for $3550.
<< <i>I would be curious to know if a study has been done to look at comparisons of sales to final numbers.
Answer: It has.
For instance do we find that slow sell outs usually end up with lower final numbers do to resales versus a higher final number on fast sellout do to overselling and few returns.
Answer: Thats correct most of the time but not always.
It would be interesting if that pattern existed. >>
Answer: It does most of the time..
<< <i>A PCGS 70 Mercanti just went for $2850.
Same seller just re-listed one for $3550. >>
That would be me. I have one last coin. Relisted it at a higher price until I see where the dust settles. Don't want to underprice it and can always take an offer if I decide what the right market price is. Heck, $3550 might be low when it is all over but I'll take that right now given the remaining uncertainty. --jerry
Box of 20
<< <i>
<< <i>A PCGS 70 Mercanti just went for $2850.
Same seller just re-listed one for $3550. >>
That would be me. I have one last coin. Relisted it at a higher price until I see where the dust settles. Don't want to underprice it and can always take an offer if I decide what the right market price is. Heck, $3550 might be low when it is all over but I'll take that right now given the remaining uncertainty. --jerry >>
Hi Jerry,
Sorry, I forgot that it was you.
I think that it's a fair price.
R-
<< <i>So is 8882 final mintage report the magic number or is a tie good enough?! >>
under 10K makes it a big winner. under 8,883 makes it THE winner
Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
- Nick Giambruno Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.
The 2008w $10 gold is say $1400 after 4 years and it has a 8883 mintage. Well if this new 2011w gold eagle does fall out around 8500 coins then thats wonderful based on rarity in set its a $2000 coin maybe (that does not indicate it cant jump up and drop in the short term)..... AND if metals prices stay up what do you think the mint is going to strike to next year. Well that question boils down to predicting the scrap rate because they are going to have about the same target production run if high dollar gold is still the case. So while the coin is likely a great bullion coin that has a numismatic floor in case the metals get soft don’t look for high growth rates on a percentage basis over the next 4 years and its not likely to be any rarer than the 2012w if they strike one.
The only hope the coin has is if they dont make a 2012w $50 gold eagle. Then you have got a real coin.
JMHO.
Eric
<< <i>It seems everyone is comparing apples to oranges. A 1 oz slug doesn't compete against a 1/4 oz in my mind. >>
Whatchu talkin' bout Willis!
<< <i>The 20th anniversary gold has a mintage of 9,996. Now they are about $2500 after 5 years and they are the key to not only the proof gold $50 registry set and Red Book listings its also the key of THE COMPLETE REVERSE PROOF TYPE SET AND THERE ARE A FAIR NUMBER OF US THAT COLLECT REVERSE PROOFS.
The 2008w $10 gold is say $1400 after 4 years and it has a 8883 mintage. Well if this new 2011w gold eagle does fall out around 8500 coins then thats wonderful based on rarity in set its a 2000 coin maybe (that does not indicate it cant jump up and drop in the short term)..... AND if metals prices stay up what do you think the mint is going to strike to next year. Well that question boils down to predicting the scrap rate because they are going to have about the same target production run if high dollar gold is still the case. So while the coin is likely a great bullion coin that has a numismatic floor in case the metals get soft don’t look for high growth rates on a percentage basis over the next 4 years.
JMHO.
Eric >>
Eric,
What you are saying makes sense. However, I know of eagle collectors who skipped the reverse proof for various reasons including that it was a proof, or just an odd duck. How many were there? OTOH, how many eagle collectors are there? Still, 1 oz MS gold eagles are a popular series and it isn't clear to me that this coin will not end up in short supply. Look at what happened to the UHR. --Jerry
<< <i>
<< <i>It seems everyone is comparing apples to oranges. A 1 oz slug doesn't compete against a 1/4 oz in my mind. >>
Whatchu talkin' bout Willis!
Simply that they are two different series, with different collector bases, and don't compete aginst each other.
Wondercoin
We'll see
<< <i>I think you're always going to have the initial frenzy when any low mintage mint product is unavailable. But as others have pointed out with some of the '06-'08-w plats even with an uber low mintage there's just not a lot of collector demand 3-4 years later. >>
check the current prices on 2008 W $10 uncirc. AGEs. Many more AGE collectors than APE collectors. Prices on these will continue to rise and hold, especially if they come in lower than the 08 W $10 uncirc.
Almost a given they will come in under 10K (Rev. Proof mintage).
through 2011 the US mint has released 212 different gold eagles. The 2006 $50 rev. proof was limited to 10k mintage (second lowest AGE mintage on record). No other eagle has a lower mintage than this except the 2008 W $10 uncirc that in MS70 currently sells for about 3.5X spot. Looks like the 2011 W $50 uncirc will stay under 10K mintage to become the second lowest mintage AGE and may very will come in under the 8,333 mintage of the 08 W $10 uncirc.
A winner for a long time for those that hold them. If they do half as well as the 30,125 mintage 1995 W ASE proof, there will be nice profits.
Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
- Nick Giambruno Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.
<< <i>The 20th anniversary gold has a mintage of 9,996. Now they are about $2500 after 5 years and they are the key to not only the proof gold $50 registry set and Red Book listings its also the key of THE COMPLETE REVERSE PROOF TYPE SET AND THERE ARE A FAIR NUMBER OF US THAT COLLECT REVERSE PROOFS.
The 2008w $10 gold is say $1400 after 4 years and it has a 8883 mintage. Well if this new 2011w gold eagle does fall out around 8500 coins then thats wonderful based on rarity in set its a $2000 coin maybe (that does not indicate it cant jump up and drop in the short term)..... AND if metals prices stay up what do you think the mint is going to strike to next year. Well that question boils down to predicting the scrap rate because they are going to have about the same target production run if high dollar gold is still the case. So while the coin is likely a great bullion coin that has a numismatic floor in case the metals get soft don’t look for high growth rates on a percentage basis over the next 4 years and its not likely to be any rarer than the 2012w if they strike one.
The only hope the coin has is if they dont make a 2012w $50 gold eagle. Then you have got a real coin.
JMHO.
Eric >>
Sounds like a good strategy would be to sell over the next few months if a '12 is announced and to hold for a while if not.
<< <i>The 20th anniversary gold has a mintage of 9,996. Now they are about $2500 after 5 years and they are the key to not only the proof gold $50 registry set and Red Book listings its also the key of THE COMPLETE REVERSE PROOF TYPE SET AND THERE ARE A FAIR NUMBER OF US THAT COLLECT REVERSE PROOFS. >>
Do not confuse "label" population with mintage. There were 9,996 2006 20th Anniversary Gold sets sold. It contained a $50 W proof and a $50 W uncirc. which each had a total mintage of 47,092 and 45,053 respectively. The 2006 W $50 uncirc. AGE was also sold in the 20th Anniversary Gold and Silver Eagle Set (sales of 19,145). There was no low mintage of 9,996 2006 W proof or uncirc. gold eagles - that is the number of special sets that contained coins that were also available through other purchases and sets. Their total sales is only part of the total mintage of the same coin marketed via other venues.
The 2011 W $50 uncirc is limited to just what the US mint sold as individual coins.
<< <i>The only hope the coin has is if they dont make a 2012w $50 gold eagle. Then you have got a real coin. >>
Appearance of 2012 W uncirc will not affect 2011 W premium UNLESS 2012 final sales are less than 10K.
Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
- Nick Giambruno Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.
I've got a "boatload" of roughly "eleven thousand and change" mintage 08-W $50 MS gold burnished eagles ... they have not done "half as well" as that 30,125 mintage coin after 3 years? In fact, if I recall correctly, I read all over the boards 3 years ago how that MS $50 Gold Eagle was going to be a "killer" coin. I am still adding to my position ... I bought another one last week for about $15 over the cost of a generic bullion piece. My experience with these $50 08-W MS burnished Gold kind of supports Eric's view point ... no?
Wondercoin
P.S. Spot gold "bailed me out" of my mistake buying these "super low mintage" $50 08-W Burnished gold eagles. All the coins that I paid roughly $1,600 - $1,700/coin for when spot gold was $1,150 -$1,300/oz are now worth what I paid for them. I lost nothing really (other than my "lost opportunity cost") through my mistake on these as the gold spot bailed me out (so far). But, I waited and waited and waited for "demand" to show up to the $50 gold eagle party. Still waiting....
<< <i>It seems everyone is comparing apples to oranges. A 1 oz slug doesn't compete against a 1/4 oz in my mind. >>
Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
- Nick Giambruno Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.
<< <i>
<< <i>It seems everyone is comparing apples to oranges. A 1 oz slug doesn't compete against a 1/4 oz in my mind. >>
They're all apples if you collect AGEs
Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
- Nick Giambruno Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.