What is the sentiment of analysts of the ending of the 7 year cycle coming this weekend? Looks like the SM has been flat for the last year coming from a rising market the last 4 years. The last 2 crashes in 14 years came in this month at the end of the 7 year cycle.
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<< <i>Unemployment rate at 5.1%. Lowest in 7 years. Wages rising at Walmart, Target, Aetna, Starbucks, Costco, wholefoods, TJ maxx, GE, Seattle, New York, Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware. >>
That number doesn't tell the whole story. Pick apart the number from pre-2008 and you'll find:
We lost more than 200,000 jobs in computer/electronics with an average pay exceeding $71,300 a year, but added 265,000 jobs in temporary help paying $29800/year.
We lost 1.4M mfg jobs paying more than $53k/year but added 1.4M jobs in food services and drinking places that pay $17k/year.
We lost 949,000 jobs in durable goods paying more than $56,700 but added more than 950,000 jobs in social assistance paying $28,340.
We lost a combined 343,000 jobs in telecom and publishing paying between $63k and $77k annually but added 332,000 jobs in home health care services that pay $27,500.
This 5.1% unemployment of today is not the same as the 5.1% unemployment from 10 years ago.
I can pick apart all those numbers and make an even more compelling growth story.
One stat I like the real income numbers....imagine, working for a company for 40 years and making 80k a year in the final years, then retire and making only 60k in retirement. Wow, lol at how real income dropped. Darn baby boomer humming up ty he works again. Lol
6 years of preaching doom and gloom. 6 years closer to death.
How many jobs have been created in the biotechnology and Healthcare sectors? Are these low paying jobs?
How about the trucking industry which is running about 300,000 drivers short? These guys are making 50-125k per year.
Yup, economy sucks...interesting how youre selling so many houses this year
Paper Comex gold rises to 226 claims per ounce.....registered/deliverable Comex ounces at a 15 yr low. His link to India's imported gold concerns is the wrong one. You'll find the article listed on the left side of the page....or below. Meanwhile, while the LBMA and Comex continue to deliver almost no gold you have the Shanghai Gold Exchange which last year processed approx. 1700 tonnes (55 MILL oz - $65 BILL). Hambro indicates that Russia is continually asked by China and India if they will sell some of theirs (ie they can't get the desired quantities out of London's LBMA or Comex). Fwiw, China central bank (PBOC) added 16 tonnes of gold in August. Interesting that 8 tonnes per month is what they supposedly averaged from July 2009- July 2015.
I can't see anyone's comment after my last post (about the 7 year cycle) so don't think I'm not responding. Certain threads get hung up for several days after I post for some reason and this is one of them. Maybe me responding in this post will jump start the system to refresh itself.
@ Elite CNC Routing & Woodworks on Facebook. Check out my work. Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i>I can't see anyone's comment after my last post (about the 7 year cycle) so don't think I'm not responding. Certain threads get hung up for several days after I post for some reason and this is one of them. Maybe me responding in this post will jump start the system to refresh itself. >>
I brought up several cycles that are all converging this month a few pages back, and there was minimal discussion then. I wouldn't expect that to change.
Baley, all a cycle ending means is (generally) the end of one trend and the beginning of another. Generally this would probably be some kind of reversal which in this case would indicate that a long-term low is in or imminent. The new cycle may start with a sharp move.
Baley, look up the biblical Shemitah cycle and it's correlation with the stock market/world events. Whether you accept biblical/spiritual/religious principles or not, it's compelling, very compelling.
Monday the 14th and Wednesday the 23rd are going to be interesting as they have been the past several Shemitah year end cycles and the wake thereafter. Chartists can't deny it.
@ Elite CNC Routing & Woodworks on Facebook. Check out my work. Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
So, we expect "volatility"? price swings, possibly dramatic ones?
I'd like to understand what's being predicted, it would be great if you guys could paraphrase it, I'll do internet searches as time permits, but everyone seems to have a different opinion.. what's yours?
<< <i>So, we expect "volatility"? price swings, possibly dramatic ones?
I'd like to understand what's being predicted, it would be great if you guys could paraphrase it, I'll do internet searches as time permits, but everyone seems to have a different opinion.. what's yours? >>
Why not just do your own predictions. Surely you don't trade based on the opinion of others.
<< <i>Why not just do your own predictions. Surely you don't trade based on the opinion of others. >>
I'll listen to any opinion and prediction from those with courage to make them, and will surely consider others' opinions in forming my own. My view of the world changes continually with data, I have not already made up my mind about everything, not as lucky or smart as some on here who already have it all figured out. That's why I'm asking..
I gave one opinion a few posts ago, "I think things gonna continue pretty much how they have been going"
Sure, not bold or dramatic, but it's the way I'm currently playing my hand.
Since we are doing opinions here is mine, and remember I know nothing much about the the stock market but enjoy the game anyway.
I do not think the Fed will raise rates this year as the economy is still in basically a recession, regardless of what numbers our socialist government puts out. I also believe it would depreciate the Feds bond position, and they have no one to sell to.
I do not think we will see any significant moves in Gold, silver, oil, copper etc. through 2016. I believe we are in a worldwide recession and it will only get worse over the next 14 months, and poor people do not invest in commodities.
I have basically stopped buying any individual stocks and am following the advice of one of the big Hedge fund traders who says this, “ this market is not investable, but it is tradable” He recommends selling short the S&P (SPY) when the market is up and then covering the short when the market drops. I have been doing this the last few weeks and so far so good.
<< <i>....I also believe it would depreciate the Feds bond position, and they have no one to sell to.... >>
They can sell to themselves.
One of the "positives" with otc derivatives, swaps, repo's, etc. is that the govt can actually buy and sell back the bonds to themselves numerous times, in essence creating demand that doesn't exist. This is really no different than dealers swapping coins back and forth among themselves and raising prices along the way. Eventually, the lack of true end-user demand is revealed and things plunge. In the coin business this is called a "promotion." In the financial world they call it investing, netting, security, off-setting, financial engineering, and a host of other terminolgies. Ponzi called it something else. For now, the otc derivs and repo games thrive.
We keep hearing stories from fiat bugs that gold and silver demand in China and India is way down. Yet official numbers would suggest just the opposite. Here are some Indian import figures on gold and silver that shows that country has ramped up demand for quite some time. In 2015 Indian silver imports are on track to reach 37% of annual world silver production (gold at 30% of world mine production). Had India not imposed much higher import taxes on gold from 2013-2014 as well as the 80/20 rule....they'd have officially imported a lot more gold. No doubt many hundreds of tonnes still found their way into India via "illegal" means. It's therefore no surprise the premiums that many higher quality silver products are currently bringing.
<< <i>You got any reports or stories that are not from some bullion dealer or fear mongering blog? >>
Do you have any reports or stories to back up your statements in your reply to my message? >>
Of course I do.
But do you have any source for your claims? I see you have a link to ZH, lol, and some politician. I see no sources cited for your claims of jobs lost per industry. The talking points you cited are usually used by politicians to instill fear, anger and discontent to further an agenda.
Baley, you would be first in line to recognize that cycles exist everywhere - cycles in biology, cycles in electricity, cycles in politics, cycles in monetary policy, cycles in the weather, cycles in food and population growth, etc. You might find Martin Armstrong's blog interesting. His programming tracks and backtests various cycles and he ties them all together in a correlation matrix in an effort to predict what can't be predicted using only a 2 or 3 or 4 variable matrix.
In other words, the cycles interact in ways that most humans can't follow because of the complexity. The computer can track, correlate and analyze the various cycles and tie them together with a predictive direction.
At the least, it's interesting. He thinks that September 2015 is the inflection point for "peak government".
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
He thinks that September 2015 is the inflection point for "peak government"
What does this mean? >>
Like "peak oil" or "peak gold"? Sure to drop 40-70%? Isnt that what the PM bugs dont want? Smaller Govt means less spending, greater fiscal responsibility, less waste. How can that be good for PMs?
<< <i>You got any reports or stories that are not from some bullion dealer or fear mongering blog? >>
Would it make any difference if a fiat blogger posted those same links and sources? It doesn't matter to me who posts the information, only that it comes from some official sources. You are free to seek out other sources that refute the findings of the Indian and Chinese govts, World Gold Council, etc. I think Koos Jansen does a pretty reputable job in tracking gold and silver imports/exports in Asia. I see no one else doing with his extreme attention to detail and analysis. Sure, he maybe a hard asset guy. He's also provided findings that counter some of the arguments of the "gold bugs." The US financial media is generally at the other extreme when reporting markets (did you see the "pet rock" story a few months ago from the same guy who said to buy gold miners in Sept 2011?.....lol). Yet we're supposed to always believe them, right? I'll suggest to Koos that he get the name of Bullionstar changed to "He Man Gold Haters Club." Maybe then, the fiat bugs will actually read the stuff.
<< <i>Baley, you would be first in line to recognize that cycles exist everywhere - cycles in biology, cycles in electricity, cycles in politics, cycles in monetary policy, cycles in the weather, cycles in food and population growth, etc. You might find Martin Armstrong's blog interesting. His programming tracks and backtests various cycles and he ties them all together in a correlation matrix in an effort to predict what can't be predicted using only a 2 or 3 or 4 variable matrix.
In other words, the cycles interact in ways that most humans can't follow because of the complexity. The computer can track, correlate and analyze the various cycles and tie them together with a predictive direction.
At the least, it's interesting. He thinks that September 2015 is the inflection point for "peak government". >>
Armstrong has drummed up quite a following. Last I heard, he put in a clause on that 10/1/15 ECM swing date that it could be pushed out into 2016. So he's waffling. His Socrates (AI) computer didn't see the August stock market crash coming either. A lot of humans I follow got that right. There have been quite a few holes in Armstrong's analysis as of late. I don't think he's any better than anyone else in calling market changes, especially when markets are under constant intervention. The central bank interventions have been shredding up the cycles for the past 6-10 years. While they can't eliminate them, they have become quite adept at extending them. In the end though, it just means the fallout will be worse than if they had not intervened in the first place.
He thinks that September 2015 is the inflection point for "peak government"
What does this mean? >>
Like "peak oil" or "peak gold"? Sure to drop 40-70%? Isnt that what the PM bugs dont want? Smaller Govt means less spending, greater fiscal responsibility, less waste. How can that be good for PMs? >>
I've been talking about the Armstrong 8.6 year ECM cycles numerous times on here since 2004. I'm surprised that some have no clue. It's not hard to find the material either.
Actually, it would be more like "peak stocks," "peak housing," etc. It's just what the fiat bugs don't want. His cycles are correlated to economic confidence and the business cycle (not the SM per se)....now nearing an 8.6 year peak. His peaks have typically deviated from 1-9 months from actual market peaks/troughs. Sometimes they hit dead on, other times a bit off. Fwiw the last peak was late Feb 2007. More interesting was that the last half cycle point was mid-May 2011....which should look VERY familiar to most for what occurred in that time period.
Personally, I'm not any kind of "bug", and find the constant reference to "bugs" labels for people distracting to the conversation, as well as inaccurate.
And general or specific awareness of cycles is not going to alter my own philosophy of balanced asset allocation with periodic rebalancing when certain assets cycle high or low.
I really wish gold would spike, so I could sell some long term holdings with big profits. Or I wish it would crash, so I could buy some more gold for long term holding purposes.
Or, alternatively, I wish it would just stay in this range, and I'd just continue to happily hold this amount of gold.
I thought this was a decent summary of the FED actions since 2006. It's easy to forget all the machinations that have gone by. I had forgot about the 6.5% unemployment "line in the sand." The author's opinions on what comes next are his, not mine.
Jim Rickards’ Real Time Commentary – September 14th, 2015
This Thursday, September 17, 2015 is the moment of truth for the Federal Reserve, and its rate policy committee the FOMC. Eight years of market manipulation are now coming to a head. The Fed will either commit a disastrous policy error by raising rates in a weak economy, or destroy its credibility by failing to raise rates after repeatedly saying it intends to do so. My estimate is the Fed will not raise rates, and leave its credibility in tatters. That’s unfortunate, but it would be more unfortunate if they raised rates and set off an emerging markets crisis that would soon cascade into U.S. markets with catastrophic results.
How did we get here?
It’s a long, sad tale that is all too familiar to market observers. From 2002 to 2006, the Fed kept rates too low, for too long, and created asset bubbles in residential and commercial real estate. When the bubbles burst in early 2007 the Fed underestimated the magnitude of the collapse, and was late in cutting rates. At the height of the crisis in September 2008, the Fed did provide needed liquidity, but failed to force the bankruptcies needed to clear the system of rot. Instead the Fed bailed-out the banks in what amounted to a carnival of crony capitalism.
From 2008 to 2014, the Fed proclaimed fifteen separate policies, amply demonstrating that they were experimenting, and had no idea what they were doing. The Fed announced QE1, QE2, QE3 (in two parts with different monthly purchase amounts), Operation Twist, calendar guidance (with four annual targets; all missed), nominal GDP targeting (remember the 6.5% unemployment “threshold”?), currency wars, and forward guidance (“extended period”, “considerable period”, “patient”, etc.). All of these policies were failures. None achieved the Fed’s goals of 2% inflation, sustained 2.5% growth, and higher real wages.
Finally, in May 2013, the Fed decided it was time to reverse course. Ben Bernanke dropped hints about terminating the open-ended QE3 by gradually reducing monthly asset purchases, a process known as “tapering.” The taper did not actually begin until December 2013, and was completed by November 2014. By early 2015, the asset purchases were over, the policy experiments were over, and all that was left was forward guidance. Then on Wednesday, March 18 2015, the Fed removed the word “patient” from its statements and the last vestige of forward guidance was gone. At last, the stage was set for a rate increase.
While many on Wall Street expected a rate increase in March 2015, the Fed limited its actions to removing “patient” from its policy statement. Attention quickly shifted to June. Then June came and went and attention shifted to September. Now September is here, and it is clear the Fed cannot raise rates. Pundits will soon focus on December (the entire March-June-December sequence is a classic example of “moving the goal posts.” Wall Street just keeps playing the game without stopping to reflect on why they got it so wrong for so long.)
The Fed has given Wall Street no reason to believe they won’t raise rates. In speech after speech, Fed governors and regional reserve bank presidents have said they expect the Fed to raise rates in 2015. The Fed may even try to “talk tough” after the September 17 meeting by hinting that October is not off the table; a suggestion I call the “October Surprise.” The data is unlikely to be strong enough to support an October or December rate increase, but that won’t stop the world from talking about it as they have all year.
What went wrong? Why did the Fed lead markets to believe they would raise rates, and then fail to do so? Why did Wall Street fall for the Fed’s head fakes without ever realizing that the Fed cannot raise rates for the foreseeable future; possibly not until 2017?
The answer is that the Fed’s obsolete models consistently overestimated growth by orders of magnitude. Based on rosy forecasts the Fed thought that robust growth (and higher inflation) were right around the corner, and they could keep rates low until it arrived. But, it never arrived, the growth depression continued, and the Fed never raised rates. They kept chasing the chimera of higher growth. The growth was a mirage (and it still is).
This forecasting failure meant that the Fed missed an entire interest rate cycle. The time to raise rates was in 2010 and 2011 when liquidity was plentiful and the economy was able to withstand a modest rate increase. If the Fed had got rates up in small increments then, say to about 1.75%, they would be in a position to cut rates today now that the economy needs help. Instead the Fed is in the bizarre posture of threatening to raise rates at a time when the economy needs rate cuts that the Fed can’t deliver in any case because they’re at the zero bound.
If the Fed raises rates on September 17, it will lead to a “risk off” emerging markets meltdown. If the Fed does nothing but continues to “talk tough” on future rate increases, we will have more of the volatility we have seen since early August as markets resume the Fed guessing game. The only policy that makes sense is new easing through negative interest rates, more forward guidance or more QE; but there is almost no chance of this happening – at least not yet.
The Fed will choose door #2: No rate increase, but more tough talk about increases in the near future. This will keep the dollar strong, put more pressure on China for devaluation, continue the emerging markets capital outflows, and cause a resumption of the Fed guessing game and the volatility that goes with it. The rest of September and October will look like August – only worse.
So what are the bets here? A rate increase this week, or No rate increase?
I think anyway we look at it, it is deflation for sure, and there is no going back to a smaller government, we are officially a socialist country.
Even the coming generation already has its hand out. Seven million grads refuse to pay their student loans.
When I was in my teens my Father told me at lease once a week,” No body owes you a living, get a job,” He was mistaken, unfortunately I took his advice and now cannot make claim to all the Gov. handouts.
Apparently, the UK takes market rigging a bit more seriously than Wall Street. This guy still seems like a small fry. While all the big banks took fines for the Libor rigging, this is the only jail time I'm aware of. No bosses though. They called him an autistic mathematician, or Rain Main. Had experience with UBS and Citigroup in trading otc derivatives/interest rate swaps. To be "fair" to the US judicial system they have been looking for this guy since 2012. The Brits got him first. You may have to paste the link into your browser to bypass the WSJ subscription.
<< <i>So what are the bets here? A rate increase this week, or No rate increase?
I think anyway we look at it, it is deflation for sure, and there is no going back to a smaller government, we are officially a socialist country.
Even the coming generation already has its hand out. Seven million grads refuse to pay their student loans.
When I was in my teens my Father told me at lease once a week,” No body owes you a living, get a job,” He was mistaken, unfortunately I took his advice and now cannot make claim to all the Gov. handouts. >>
There's no way they can raise rates. There's a small chance they'll raise 0.1%, a compromise, to save face. A failure to raise rates though may prompt more moves by China to weaken their currency further.
Since my Dr. visits and haircuts have not gone down in price in over 35 years, I guess all is well.
Did finally break down and get a new lawn mower. It cost 10% more than the last one....but a lot more plastic parts than the previous version. Hope it lasts.
The service economy notion is probably a good one. Despite most commodities being down in price, I still pay more for most finished products containing softs/grains. And despite energy and other raw material prices being way down, services for plumbers, auto mechanics, burner techs, tree cutters, driveway repairs, painters, etc. only cost more than ever. It would almost seem that commodity prices being down has only raised the net costs in their various service-related industries. Prices at my local bakery and health food stores have only gone higher, never lower. Yet, the very popular and almost "iconic" Italian restaurant right next door to the bakery just folded after over 25 years in business. Still, they'll be back next year with new ownership and a new theme to try and make it work again.
Strange going ons with Comex Registered vs. Eligible physical gold numbers. Multiple sources have noted over the past months of dwindling "registered" Comex gold which is the only kind that is deliverable. Despite 15 year lows, they continue to let it dwindle. There are now 253 paper claims per oz vs. each physical/registered ounce. Put another way, for the past 15 years Comex has averaged a 20-1 ratio (5% registered gold). Today it's at 0.4%. JPM and others have made no moves to replenish the Registered stocks from the Eligible category. It makes about as much sense as JPM's $4 TRILL otc derivative's position.
Strange going ons with Comex Registered vs. Eligible physical gold numbers. Multiple sources have noted over the past months of dwindling "registered" Comex gold which is the only kind that is deliverable. Despite 15 year lows, they continue to let it dwindle. There are now 253 paper claims per oz vs. each physical/registered ounce. Put another way, for the past 15 years Comex has averaged a 20-1 ratio (5% registered gold). Today it's at 0.4%. JPM and others have made no moves to replenish the Registered stocks from the Eligible category. It makes about as much sense as JPM's $4 TRILL otc derivative's position. >>
Certainly conditions appear to be getting ripe for some kind of a "short squeeze." Although the Comex isn't technically short, they pretty much are. There are rumors that the US Mint may halt ASE sales until 2016 to catch up on production. I have heard similar news of shortages from other mints as well. Things are getting interesting.
Sure seems like a lot to me. And 666 tonnes ytd in 2015. Toss in China, Russia, etc. and the gold is continuing to move from west to east. No wonder finding quantities of gold and especially silver is getting hard.
Another view about the shrinkage in Comex registered inventory. While it's true that the eligible inventory is sizable, it's not being moved into registered stocks to keep the deliverable ounce up. I have no clue why. I do know that CPM is quite the anti-gold hack and Barclay's is far from gold neutral/friendly.
If the coming silver shortage is as inevitable as I suggest, then why hasn’t it occurred yet? The short answer is that COMEX futures trading has come to so dominate the price of silver (and now other commodities) that the surest sign of a physical commodity shortage, a rising price, is blunted. The price of silver is not depressed because of a surplus of real metal, retail or wholesale, or a lack of physical demand, it is depressed by a surplus of derivatives contracts. In essence, the artificial price emanating from the COMEX is short-circuiting the true functioning of the law of supply and demand. ...there are $75 BILL in US bank otc silver derivatives....4 years paper equivalent of world production.....70% of them owned by Citigroup, most of the rest by JPM.
Koos Jansen has been submitting FOIA requests to get information on US gold audits from 1975-1986. Fair enough. By 1986 approx 97% of the gold had been audited and officially sealed in vaults. Since that time, audits have been conducted using those sealed vault records and a check of the other 3%. Some issues have arose that are interesting. Over half of the audits in those years are missing. And that's important because those early years is when the vaults were sealed on 97% of the inventoried gold. The various agencies that should have the missing report years can't find them or don't have them. "In short, the US National Archives could not extradite the 7 audit reports I requested. The reports were not present at the National Archives, the OIG or at the Treasury Department." The Office of the Inspector General of the US Treasury cites those missing reports in his 2011 in depth review, but they aren't available. So how can the IOG technically say the gold has been 100% audited and he has verified this?
Another requirement of the audits were assaying 1 in 50 "melts." None of those assay reports for the entire period of 1974-1986 can be found, nor is the assayer even identified. Even the inventory/assay done in 1953 has no data to support. And the only assay reports done in recent years assay out at 0.999+ gold. That would suggest that the remaining 3% of unsealed vault gold is not the 90% coin melt variety. The vast majority of US gold inventory was due to accumulating coin melt in the 1920's to 1940's. There's no record of ever assaying a .900 fine bar since at least 1974. A final item was that the Fed Reserve Bank of NY gold was supposed to be audited during the 1974-1986 period. But, it's gold was never sealed, and there are no assay records either. Pretty sloppy auditing and record keeping when it comes to the nation's 261.5 MILL oz of gold (worth approx $300 BILL).
Interesting reading. All the guy wants is the facts, whatever they might say. Skeptics can read the 5 annual reports the author does have available to verify there's no assays, no assayers, and less than a bullet-proof physical audit. The missing 7 reports from 1974-1986 could help clear this up. If the link doesn't work paste it from below.
There is no silver shortage. Only a shortage of some finished product producers being able to keep up with product demand.
Usually this indicates there is increased demand. In Baleyville, over across the cohodk state line, I'm sure this indicates something entirely different.
Comments
<< <i>Bond and dollar market may be saying otherwise. >>
That's exactly why they can't.
<< <i>
<< <i>Bond and dollar market may be saying otherwise. >>
That's exactly why they can't. >>
Markets always win, especially the 2 largest on the planet.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I'd like to see them raise a quarter point in the near future. >>
You should that 0.25% bump this month and another bump to 0.50% in December. They can always drop it back next year.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Bond and dollar market may be saying otherwise. >>
That's exactly why they can't. >>
Markets always win, especially the 2 largest on the planet. >>
I agree. Rates will rise eventually, but not because the fed raised them...
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Bond and dollar market may be saying otherwise. >>
That's exactly why they can't. >>
Markets always win, especially the 2 largest on the planet. >>
I agree. Rates will rise eventually, but not because the fed raised them... >>
As always.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
theend
PM's have dropped 50% or more in the passt. It wasn't the end.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Welcome back, hope everyone had a nice weekend.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Unemployment rate at 5.1%. Lowest in 7 years. Wages rising at Walmart, Target, Aetna, Starbucks, Costco, wholefoods, TJ maxx, GE, Seattle, New York, Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware. >>
That number doesn't tell the whole story. Pick apart the number from pre-2008 and you'll find:
We lost more than 200,000 jobs in computer/electronics with an average pay exceeding $71,300 a year, but added 265,000 jobs in temporary help paying $29800/year.
We lost 1.4M mfg jobs paying more than $53k/year but added 1.4M jobs in food services and drinking places that pay $17k/year.
We lost 949,000 jobs in durable goods paying more than $56,700 but added more than 950,000 jobs in social assistance paying $28,340.
We lost a combined 343,000 jobs in telecom and publishing paying between $63k and $77k annually but added 332,000 jobs in home health care services that pay $27,500.
This 5.1% unemployment of today is not the same as the 5.1% unemployment from 10 years ago."Real" household income has fallen by about 8% from 2007
2005: $54865
2009: $56436
2015: $51939
Edited to add:
698K Native-Born Americans Lost Their Job In August: Why This Suddenly Is The Most Important Jobs Chart
...In August a whopping 698,000 native-born Americans lost their job. This drop was offset by 204,000 foreign-born Americans, who got a job in the month of August.
One stat I like the real income numbers....imagine, working for a company for 40 years and making 80k a year in the final years, then retire and making only 60k in retirement. Wow, lol at how real income dropped. Darn baby boomer humming up ty he works again. Lol
6 years of preaching doom and gloom. 6 years closer to death.
How many jobs have been created in the biotechnology and Healthcare sectors? Are these low paying jobs?
How about the trucking industry which is running about 300,000 drivers short? These guys are making 50-125k per year.
Yup, economy sucks...interesting how youre selling so many houses this year
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Paper Comex gold rises to 226 claims per ounce.....registered/deliverable Comex ounces at a 15 yr low. His link to India's imported gold concerns is the wrong one. You'll find the article listed on the left side of the page....or below. Meanwhile, while the LBMA and Comex continue to deliver almost no gold you have the Shanghai Gold Exchange which last year processed approx. 1700 tonnes (55 MILL oz - $65 BILL). Hambro indicates that Russia is continually asked by China and India if they will sell some of theirs (ie they can't get the desired quantities out of London's LBMA or Comex). Fwiw, China central bank (PBOC) added 16 tonnes of gold in August. Interesting that 8 tonnes per month is what they supposedly averaged from July 2009- July 2015.
India struggles to cut gold imports
Hambro....not Rambo
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i>I can't see anyone's comment after my last post (about the 7 year cycle) so don't think I'm not responding. Certain threads get hung up for several days after I post for some reason and this is one of them. Maybe me responding in this post will jump start the system to refresh itself. >>
I brought up several cycles that are all converging this month a few pages back, and there was minimal discussion then. I wouldn't expect that to change.
Gold is worth $1109/oz. as this is written.
Ya rekon that's gonna change?
How much and when?
I think things gonna continue pretty much how they have been going
With a lot of stuff going on all over the planet.
Ya say some phenomena are cyclical?
How so?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Monday the 14th and Wednesday the 23rd are going to be interesting as they have been the past several Shemitah year end cycles and the wake thereafter. Chartists can't deny it.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
I'd like to understand what's being predicted, it would be great if you guys could paraphrase it, I'll do internet searches as time permits, but everyone seems to have a different opinion.. what's yours?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>So, we expect "volatility"? price swings, possibly dramatic ones?
I'd like to understand what's being predicted, it would be great if you guys could paraphrase it, I'll do internet searches as time permits, but everyone seems to have a different opinion.. what's yours? >>
Why not just do your own predictions. Surely you don't trade based on the opinion of others.
Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
- Nick Giambruno Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
<< <i>Why not just do your own predictions. Surely you don't trade based on the opinion of others. >>
I'll listen to any opinion and prediction from those with courage to make them, and will surely consider others' opinions in forming my own. My view of the world changes continually with data, I have not already made up my mind about everything, not as lucky or smart as some on here who already have it all figured out. That's why I'm asking..
I gave one opinion a few posts ago, "I think things gonna continue pretty much how they have been going"
Sure, not bold or dramatic, but it's the way I'm currently playing my hand.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I do not think the Fed will raise rates this year as the economy is still in basically a recession, regardless of what numbers our socialist government puts out.
I also believe it would depreciate the Feds bond position, and they have no one to sell to.
I do not think we will see any significant moves in Gold, silver, oil, copper etc. through 2016. I believe we are in a worldwide recession and it will only get worse over the next 14 months, and poor people do not invest in commodities.
I have basically stopped buying any individual stocks and am following the advice of one of the big Hedge fund traders who says this, “ this market is not investable, but it is tradable”
He recommends selling short the S&P (SPY) when the market is up and then covering the short when the market drops. I have been doing this the last few weeks and so far so good.
Good Luck Comrades
<< <i>....I also believe it would depreciate the Feds bond position, and they have no one to sell to.... >>
They can sell to themselves.
One of the "positives" with otc derivatives, swaps, repo's, etc. is that the govt can actually buy and sell back the bonds to themselves numerous times, in essence creating demand that doesn't exist. This is really no different than dealers swapping coins back and forth among themselves and raising prices along the way. Eventually, the lack of true end-user demand is revealed and things plunge. In the coin business this is called a "promotion." In the financial world they call it investing, netting, security, off-setting, financial engineering, and a host of other terminolgies. Ponzi called it something else. For now, the otc derivs and repo games thrive.
I knew it would happen.
India going hog wild
Link may not work. You can load it manually:
https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/india-precious-metals-import-explosive-august-gold-126t-silver-1400t/
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>You got any reports or stories that are not from some bullion dealer or fear mongering blog? >>
Do you have any reports or stories to back up your statements in your reply to my message?
<< <i>
<< <i>You got any reports or stories that are not from some bullion dealer or fear mongering blog? >>
Do you have any reports or stories to back up your statements in your reply to my message? >>
Of course I do.
But do you have any source for your claims? I see you have a link to ZH, lol, and some politician. I see no sources cited for your claims of jobs lost per industry. The talking points you cited are usually used by politicians to instill fear, anger and discontent to further an agenda.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
In other words, the cycles interact in ways that most humans can't follow because of the complexity. The computer can track, correlate and analyze the various cycles and tie them together with a predictive direction.
At the least, it's interesting. He thinks that September 2015 is the inflection point for "peak government".
I knew it would happen.
He thinks that September 2015 is the inflection point for "peak government"
What does this mean?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Interesting indeed.
He thinks that September 2015 is the inflection point for "peak government"
What does this mean? >>
Like "peak oil" or "peak gold"? Sure to drop 40-70%? Isnt that what the PM bugs dont want? Smaller Govt means less spending, greater fiscal responsibility, less waste. How can that be good for PMs?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>You got any reports or stories that are not from some bullion dealer or fear mongering blog? >>
Would it make any difference if a fiat blogger posted those same links and sources? It doesn't matter to me who posts the information, only that it comes from some official sources. You are free to seek out other sources that refute the findings of the Indian and Chinese govts, World Gold Council, etc. I think Koos Jansen does a pretty reputable job in tracking gold and silver imports/exports in Asia. I see no one else doing with his extreme attention to detail and analysis. Sure, he maybe a hard asset guy. He's also provided findings that counter some of the arguments of the "gold bugs." The US financial media is generally at the other extreme when reporting markets (did you see the "pet rock" story a few months ago from the same guy who said to buy gold miners in Sept 2011?.....lol). Yet we're supposed to always believe them, right? I'll suggest to Koos that he get the name of Bullionstar changed to "He Man Gold Haters Club." Maybe then, the fiat bugs will actually read the stuff.
<< <i>Baley, you would be first in line to recognize that cycles exist everywhere - cycles in biology, cycles in electricity, cycles in politics, cycles in monetary policy, cycles in the weather, cycles in food and population growth, etc. You might find Martin Armstrong's blog interesting. His programming tracks and backtests various cycles and he ties them all together in a correlation matrix in an effort to predict what can't be predicted using only a 2 or 3 or 4 variable matrix.
In other words, the cycles interact in ways that most humans can't follow because of the complexity. The computer can track, correlate and analyze the various cycles and tie them together with a predictive direction.
At the least, it's interesting. He thinks that September 2015 is the inflection point for "peak government". >>
Armstrong has drummed up quite a following. Last I heard, he put in a clause on that 10/1/15 ECM swing date that it could be pushed out into 2016. So he's waffling. His Socrates (AI) computer didn't see the August stock market crash coming either. A lot of humans I follow got that right. There have been quite a few holes in Armstrong's analysis as of late. I don't think he's any better than anyone else in calling market changes, especially when markets are under constant intervention. The central bank interventions have been shredding up the cycles for the past 6-10 years. While they can't eliminate them, they have become quite adept at extending them. In the end though, it just means the fallout will be worse than if they had not intervened in the first place.
<< <i>
<< <i>Interesting indeed.
He thinks that September 2015 is the inflection point for "peak government"
What does this mean? >>
Like "peak oil" or "peak gold"? Sure to drop 40-70%? Isnt that what the PM bugs dont want? Smaller Govt means less spending, greater fiscal responsibility, less waste. How can that be good for PMs? >>
I've been talking about the Armstrong 8.6 year ECM cycles numerous times on here since 2004. I'm surprised that some have no clue. It's not hard to find the material either.
Actually, it would be more like "peak stocks," "peak housing," etc. It's just what the fiat bugs don't want. His cycles are correlated to economic confidence and the business cycle (not the SM per se)....now nearing an 8.6 year peak. His peaks have typically deviated from 1-9 months from actual market peaks/troughs. Sometimes they hit dead on, other times a bit off. Fwiw the last peak was late Feb 2007. More interesting was that the last half cycle point was mid-May 2011....which should look VERY familiar to most for what occurred in that time period.
And general or specific awareness of cycles is not going to alter my own philosophy of balanced asset allocation with periodic rebalancing when certain assets cycle high or low.
I really wish gold would spike, so I could sell some long term holdings with big profits. Or I wish it would crash, so I could buy some more gold for long term holding purposes.
Or, alternatively, I wish it would just stay in this range, and I'd just continue to happily hold this amount of gold.
Do you think any of my wishes might come true?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Jim Rickards’ Real Time Commentary – September 14th, 2015
This Thursday, September 17, 2015 is the moment of truth for the Federal Reserve, and its rate policy committee the FOMC. Eight years of market manipulation are now coming to a head. The Fed will either commit a disastrous policy error by raising rates in a weak economy, or destroy its credibility by failing to raise rates after repeatedly saying it intends to do so. My estimate is the Fed will not raise rates, and leave its credibility in tatters. That’s unfortunate, but it would be more unfortunate if they raised rates and set off an emerging markets crisis that would soon cascade into U.S. markets with catastrophic results.
How did we get here?
It’s a long, sad tale that is all too familiar to market observers. From 2002 to 2006, the Fed kept rates too low, for too long, and created asset bubbles in residential and commercial real estate. When the bubbles burst in early 2007 the Fed underestimated the magnitude of the collapse, and was late in cutting rates. At the height of the crisis in September 2008, the Fed did provide needed liquidity, but failed to force the bankruptcies needed to clear the system of rot. Instead the Fed bailed-out the banks in what amounted to a carnival of crony capitalism.
From 2008 to 2014, the Fed proclaimed fifteen separate policies, amply demonstrating that they were experimenting, and had no idea what they were doing. The Fed announced QE1, QE2, QE3 (in two parts with different monthly purchase amounts), Operation Twist, calendar guidance (with four annual targets; all missed), nominal GDP targeting (remember the 6.5% unemployment “threshold”?), currency wars, and forward guidance (“extended period”, “considerable period”, “patient”, etc.). All of these policies were failures. None achieved the Fed’s goals of 2% inflation, sustained 2.5% growth, and higher real wages.
Finally, in May 2013, the Fed decided it was time to reverse course. Ben Bernanke dropped hints about terminating the open-ended QE3 by gradually reducing monthly asset purchases, a process known as “tapering.” The taper did not actually begin until December 2013, and was completed by November 2014. By early 2015, the asset purchases were over, the policy experiments were over, and all that was left was forward guidance. Then on Wednesday, March 18 2015, the Fed removed the word “patient” from its statements and the last vestige of forward guidance was gone. At last, the stage was set for a rate increase.
While many on Wall Street expected a rate increase in March 2015, the Fed limited its actions to removing “patient” from its policy statement. Attention quickly shifted to June. Then June came and went and attention shifted to September. Now September is here, and it is clear the Fed cannot raise rates. Pundits will soon focus on December (the entire March-June-December sequence is a classic example of “moving the goal posts.” Wall Street just keeps playing the game without stopping to reflect on why they got it so wrong for so long.)
The Fed has given Wall Street no reason to believe they won’t raise rates. In speech after speech, Fed governors and regional reserve bank presidents have said they expect the Fed to raise rates in 2015. The Fed may even try to “talk tough” after the September 17 meeting by hinting that October is not off the table; a suggestion I call the “October Surprise.” The data is unlikely to be strong enough to support an October or December rate increase, but that won’t stop the world from talking about it as they have all year.
What went wrong? Why did the Fed lead markets to believe they would raise rates, and then fail to do so? Why did Wall Street fall for the Fed’s head fakes without ever realizing that the Fed cannot raise rates for the foreseeable future; possibly not until 2017?
The answer is that the Fed’s obsolete models consistently overestimated growth by orders of magnitude. Based on rosy forecasts the Fed thought that robust growth (and higher inflation) were right around the corner, and they could keep rates low until it arrived. But, it never arrived, the growth depression continued, and the Fed never raised rates. They kept chasing the chimera of higher growth. The growth was a mirage (and it still is).
This forecasting failure meant that the Fed missed an entire interest rate cycle. The time to raise rates was in 2010 and 2011 when liquidity was plentiful and the economy was able to withstand a modest rate increase. If the Fed had got rates up in small increments then, say to about 1.75%, they would be in a position to cut rates today now that the economy needs help. Instead the Fed is in the bizarre posture of threatening to raise rates at a time when the economy needs rate cuts that the Fed can’t deliver in any case because they’re at the zero bound.
If the Fed raises rates on September 17, it will lead to a “risk off” emerging markets meltdown. If the Fed does nothing but continues to “talk tough” on future rate increases, we will have more of the volatility we have seen since early August as markets resume the Fed guessing game. The only policy that makes sense is new easing through negative interest rates, more forward guidance or more QE; but there is almost no chance of this happening – at least not yet.
The Fed will choose door #2: No rate increase, but more tough talk about increases in the near future. This will keep the dollar strong, put more pressure on China for devaluation, continue the emerging markets capital outflows, and cause a resumption of the Fed guessing game and the volatility that goes with it. The rest of September and October will look like August – only worse.
I think anyway we look at it, it is deflation for sure, and there is no going back to a smaller government, we are officially a socialist country.
Even the coming generation already has its hand out. Seven million grads refuse to pay their student loans.
When I was in my teens my Father told me at lease once a week,” No body owes you a living, get a job,” He was mistaken, unfortunately I took his advice and now cannot make claim to all the Gov. handouts.
BBC link
Apparently, the UK takes market rigging a bit more seriously than Wall Street. This guy still seems like a small fry. While all the big banks took fines for the Libor rigging, this is the only jail time I'm aware of. No bosses though. They called him an autistic mathematician, or Rain Main. Had experience with UBS and Citigroup in trading otc derivatives/interest rate swaps. To be "fair" to the US judicial system they have been looking for this guy since 2012. The Brits got him first. You may have to paste the link into your browser to bypass the WSJ subscription.
<< <i>So what are the bets here? A rate increase this week, or No rate increase?
I think anyway we look at it, it is deflation for sure, and there is no going back to a smaller government, we are officially a socialist country.
Even the coming generation already has its hand out. Seven million grads refuse to pay their student loans.
When I was in my teens my Father told me at lease once a week,” No body owes you a living, get a job,” He was mistaken, unfortunately I took his advice and now cannot make claim to all the Gov. handouts. >>
There's no way they can raise rates.
There's a small chance they'll raise 0.1%, a compromise, to save face.
A failure to raise rates though may prompt more moves by China to weaken their currency further.
Be concerned when your dr visit, haircut, and lawncare drop in price.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Did finally break down and get a new lawn mower. It cost 10% more than the last one....but a lot more plastic parts than the previous version. Hope it lasts.
The service economy notion is probably a good one. Despite most commodities being down in price, I still pay more for most finished products containing softs/grains. And despite energy and other raw material prices being way down, services for plumbers, auto mechanics, burner techs, tree cutters, driveway repairs, painters, etc. only cost more than ever. It would almost seem that commodity prices being down has only raised the net costs in their various service-related industries. Prices at my local bakery and health food stores have only gone higher, never lower. Yet, the very popular and almost "iconic" Italian restaurant right next door to the bakery just folded after over 25 years in business. Still, they'll be back next year with new ownership and a new theme to try and make it work again.
Strange going ons with Comex Registered vs. Eligible physical gold numbers. Multiple sources have noted over the past months of dwindling "registered" Comex gold which is the only kind that is deliverable. Despite 15 year lows, they continue to let it dwindle. There are now 253 paper claims per oz vs. each physical/registered ounce. Put another way, for the past 15 years Comex has averaged a 20-1 ratio (5% registered gold). Today it's at 0.4%. JPM and others have made no moves to replenish the Registered stocks from the Eligible category. It makes about as much sense as JPM's $4 TRILL otc derivative's position.
<< <i>Comex charts
Strange going ons with Comex Registered vs. Eligible physical gold numbers. Multiple sources have noted over the past months of dwindling "registered" Comex gold which is the only kind that is deliverable. Despite 15 year lows, they continue to let it dwindle. There are now 253 paper claims per oz vs. each physical/registered ounce. Put another way, for the past 15 years Comex has averaged a 20-1 ratio (5% registered gold). Today it's at 0.4%. JPM and others have made no moves to replenish the Registered stocks from the Eligible category. It makes about as much sense as JPM's $4 TRILL otc derivative's position. >>
Certainly conditions appear to be getting ripe for some kind of a "short squeeze." Although the Comex isn't technically short, they pretty much are.
There are rumors that the US Mint may halt ASE sales until 2016 to catch up on production. I have heard similar news of shortages from other mints as well.
Things are getting interesting.
Sure seems like a lot to me. And 666 tonnes ytd in 2015. Toss in China, Russia, etc. and the gold is continuing to move from west to east. No wonder finding quantities of gold and especially silver is getting hard.
Barclays and CPM Group dismiss potential of Comex gold shortage
Another view about the shrinkage in Comex registered inventory. While it's true that the eligible inventory is sizable, it's not being moved into registered stocks to keep the deliverable ounce up. I have no clue why. I do know that CPM is quite the anti-gold hack and Barclay's is far from gold neutral/friendly.
Fekete counters CPM gold statement
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JPM calling a bottom to the mining sector. Now that would be a change of spots.
From Ted Butler today:
If the coming silver shortage is as inevitable as I suggest, then why hasn’t it occurred yet? The short answer is that COMEX futures trading has come to so dominate the price of silver (and now other commodities) that the surest sign of a physical commodity shortage, a rising price, is blunted. The price of silver is not depressed because of a surplus of real metal, retail or wholesale, or a lack of physical demand, it is depressed by a surplus of derivatives contracts. In essence, the artificial price emanating from the COMEX is short-circuiting the true functioning of the law of supply and demand. ...there are $75 BILL in US bank otc silver derivatives....4 years paper equivalent of world production.....70% of them owned by Citigroup, most of the rest by JPM.
Good video of interview with Sunshine Mint CEO. SM is the largest supplier of planchets to the US Mint.
http://www.silverdoctors.com/silver-shortage-us-mint-silver-eagle-sunshine-mint-tom-power/
Oh yeah, and demand is down...
[/sarcasm]
Another requirement of the audits were assaying 1 in 50 "melts." None of those assay reports for the entire period of 1974-1986 can be found, nor is the assayer even identified. Even the inventory/assay done in 1953 has no data to support. And the only assay reports done in recent years assay out at 0.999+ gold. That would suggest that the remaining 3% of unsealed vault gold is not the 90% coin melt variety. The vast majority of US gold inventory was due to accumulating coin melt in the 1920's to 1940's. There's no record of ever assaying a .900 fine bar since at least 1974. A final item was that the Fed Reserve Bank of NY gold was supposed to be audited during the 1974-1986 period. But, it's gold was never sealed, and there are no assay records either. Pretty sloppy auditing and record keeping when it comes to the nation's 261.5 MILL oz of gold (worth approx $300 BILL).
Interesting reading. All the guy wants is the facts, whatever they might say. Skeptics can read the 5 annual reports the author does have available to verify there's no assays, no assayers, and less than a bullet-proof physical audit. The missing 7 reports from 1974-1986 could help clear this up. If the link doesn't work paste it from below.
----
https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/us-government-lost-7-fort-knox-gold-audit-reports/
or
Status of the Committee for Continued Audits of United States Government-owned gold...there are 2 links at the start of the article on detailed audit information in earlier articles.
Usually this indicates there is increased demand. In Baleyville, over across the cohodk state line, I'm sure this indicates something entirely different.
Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
- Nick Giambruno Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.