I'll bet that the people that "slept" through 2011 did a heck of a lot better than those investors that tried to manage their way through the year. The year was full of doom, gloom, and the "I saw the whole thing coming" predictors. It was also full of anxiety. The Rip Van Winkle that slept through 2011 probably experienced a lot less anxiety than the people trying to "do something" last year.
So we're locked for the year or do we want to allow, say, quarterly updates based on performance? Or should that be another thread option so we have multiples, using these picks as a base??
So we're locked for the year or do we want to allow, say, quarterly updates based on performance?
This thread was for choices for the entire calendar year. Perhaps someone will start another at some point.
will you be updating throughout the year?
Absolutely, although I'm not sure sure how often. At least monthly, most likely every few weeks or so. If my picks do well, I will update them more frequently.
hehe, i feel the same zrlevin...i actually sold out of half my AMYZF after that move this week. still like it though. does everyone else actually have these stocks in their 'real life' portfolios?
wingsrule - not doing so bad yourself!! only person with all your 3 picks in double digits. well done.
<< <i>no problem for me to come in 2nd to the mighty Ag - i'm a stacker.
anyone want a side bet that SLV outperforms AGQ this year in % terms? >>
About the only way SLV can outperform AGQ (today's price vs. year end price) is for silver to finish the year below today's spot price. As long as silver finishes in the black, AGQ will do approx. twice as well. This is what AGQ is designed to do.
derry - it was a half-in-jest sucker bet. SLV would have to go up by about 35-40% for AGQ to outperform it over a one year period. note 2011 (approx):
SLV 1 jan 2011: 28.10 SLV 31 dec 2011: 26.94
down 4% (approx)
AGQ 1 jan 2011: 68.48 AGQ 31 dec 2011: 41.61
down 40% (approx)
there's a lot of decay in the ultras over longer periods of time..SLV will outperform AGQ from the 1 jan-31 dec 2012 period barring a real explosion in the price.
I'm sticking with a greater price increase for AGQ over SLV at the end of the year. AGQ decay is a bump in the road, but not a stop sign in a bull market. In the real world I'm flipping between AGQ and ZSL to maximize profit (or loss ). I personally expect silver to see $75 before the year is out.
not quite sure what that means derry, but i'll make it interesting with anyone here. provided SLV on dec 31 2012 is higher than SLV on jan 1 2012, Ill bet that it outperforms AGQ in % terms over the year.
The volatility of silver price makes it great for leveraged longs and shorts.
I'll take the playmoney bet that AGQ price sees a greater percentage per share price increase than SLV based on prices on 12/31/11 vs. prices on 12/31/12
<< <i>I'm sticking with a greater price increase for AGQ over SLV at the end of the year. AGQ decay is a bump in the road, but not a stop sign in a bull market. In the real world I'm flipping between AGQ and ZSL to maximize profit (or loss ). I personally expect silver to see $75 before the year is out. >>
There is a guy here that I have a bet with would really love to see your price come true. I may be in real trouble if $75 happens.
<< <i>I'm sticking with a greater price increase for AGQ over SLV at the end of the year. AGQ decay is a bump in the road, but not a stop sign in a bull market. In the real world I'm flipping between AGQ and ZSL to maximize profit (or loss ). I personally expect silver to see $75 before the year is out. >>
There is a guy here that I have a bet with would really love to see your price come true. I may be in real trouble if $75 happens. >>
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
thanks for the clarification derry - your original point raised an interesting question. ETFs that tracked 2x the YEARLY change (instead of daily) in GLD, SLV, or the indicies would likely be tremendously popular for investors. actually kind of surprised that they don't exist yet.
Leveraged investments are VERY popular when they move in the right direction.
As derryb points out, they're also a terrific way to multiply your losses during down periods
PS: How can I get in on that $75 silver side bet action? There's no way I can lose by betting it won't happen (it's a bet I'd happily lose, and sell every last silver dime to pay off)
<< <i>Leveraged investments are VERY popular when they move in the right direction.
As derryb points out, they're also a terrific way to multiply your losses during down periods
PS: How can I get in on that $75 silver side bet action? There's no way I can lose by betting it won't happen (it's a bet I'd happily lose, and sell every last silver dime to pay off) >>
Count me in also ... I need another contribution to my favorite Charity
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
<< <i>Leveraged investments are VERY popular when they move in the right direction.
As derryb points out, they're also a terrific way to multiply your losses during down periods
PS: How can I get in on that $75 silver side bet action? There's no way I can lose by betting it won't happen (it's a bet I'd happily lose, and sell every last silver dime to pay off) >>
Count me in also ... I need another contribution to my favorite Charity >>
Your charity collected from me last year when $50 silver was barely out of reach. Quit while you're ahead.
<< <i>Leveraged investments are VERY popular when they move in the right direction.
As derryb points out, they're also a terrific way to multiply your losses during down periods
PS: How can I get in on that $75 silver side bet action? There's no way I can lose by betting it won't happen (it's a bet I'd happily lose, and sell every last silver dime to pay off) >>
Count me in also ... I need another contribution to my favorite Charity >>
Your charity collected from me last year when $50 silver was barely out of reach. Quit while you're ahead. >>
I don't quit when it comes to sure bets.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
GPRO got a nice bump off the Illumina pin action. Had to sell some of both today
Yeah, I'm taking some profits in ILMN, BIIB, and QCOM today too. Cost basis on each < $10/share. Even beaten down AFFX is getting some of that M&A "pin action"
<< <i>GPRO got a nice bump off the Illumina pin action. Had to sell some of both today
Warning: I nibbled on HALO last month. >>
I don't have big positions, but I have Illumina and Life Sciences, I thought about taking some off in Illumina, but my hunch is to hold for now. Of course, could be maybe a mistake.
Little late, but my investment idea is to short triple leveraged ETFs on rips(at least 3 x price normal movement) if you have the capital to ride them out, long or short, even right or wrong on direction, they always want to eventually head toward zero. ( if these things couldn't do reverse splits they'd be in trouble)
Caveat Emptor: No, I haven't done it, would someone with abundant capital implement this strategy and let me know how it works
Starting to look to me that mining stock indicies could be a big gainer in 2012. And well selected individual juniors and intermediates could see triples to quadruples.
what, the decaying time value that eventually goes to zero for out of the money options?
PS: our town just got another Chipotle's... lines out the door for realatively healthy burritos the size of a football.
It's interesting how almost every picker is positive in one month, the two most negative took short positions. (twinturbo would current #1 in this thing if Long?)
Most of those % gains would be quite handsome for a whole year of returns, and it's only been four weeks.
Comments
edit: ... but we'll see how they finish the year.... Rip Van Winkle picks em and let's em run in 2012
Here's an apt quote from the above link:
I'll bet that the people that "slept" through 2011 did a heck of a lot better than those investors that tried to manage their way through the year. The year was full of doom, gloom, and the "I saw the whole thing coming" predictors. It was also full of anxiety. The Rip Van Winkle that slept through 2011 probably experienced a lot less anxiety than the people trying to "do something" last year.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>My pick is
+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;">HALO at today's closing price (9.51 ) >>
So your buying at the top of the 52 week range on a stock that has no pe listed ? is this an investment, or just fun money used for gambling ?
Sorry I missed this thread the first time around.
I'll be watching it!
<< <i>
<< <i>My pick is
+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;">HALO at today's closing price (9.51 ) >>
So your buying at the top of the 52 week range on a stock that has no pe listed ? is this an investment, or just fun money used for gambling ? >>
Interestingly, the best performing stocks often have very high or no PE.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
This thread was for choices for the entire calendar year. Perhaps someone will start another at some point.
will you be updating throughout the year?
Absolutely, although I'm not sure sure how often. At least monthly, most likely every few weeks or so. If my picks do well, I will update them more frequently.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The minute I open my mouth, my position will get trashed.
I knew it would happen.
Or well chosen.....but I'm going to stick with lucky.
wingsrule - not doing so bad yourself!! only person with all your 3 picks in double digits. well done.
S'ok, now I can buy more.
Ohh well ill check in periodically.
anyone want a side bet that SLV outperforms AGQ this year in % terms?
<< <i>no problem for me to come in 2nd to the mighty Ag - i'm a stacker.
anyone want a side bet that SLV outperforms AGQ this year in % terms? >>
About the only way SLV can outperform AGQ (today's price vs. year end price) is for silver to finish the year below today's spot price. As long as silver finishes in the black, AGQ will do approx. twice as well. This is what AGQ is designed to do.
AGQ Profile
Now, do you want to bet silver will finish the year lower than today's spot price?
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
SLV 1 jan 2011: 28.10
SLV 31 dec 2011: 26.94
down 4% (approx)
AGQ 1 jan 2011: 68.48
AGQ 31 dec 2011: 41.61
down 40% (approx)
there's a lot of decay in the ultras over longer periods of time..SLV will outperform AGQ from the 1 jan-31 dec 2012 period barring a real explosion in the price.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
I'll take the playmoney bet that AGQ price sees a greater percentage per share price increase than SLV based on prices on 12/31/11 vs. prices on 12/31/12
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
<< <i>I'm sticking with a greater price increase for AGQ over SLV at the end of the year. AGQ decay is a bump in the road, but not a stop sign in a bull market. In the real world I'm flipping between AGQ and ZSL to maximize profit (or loss
There is a guy here that I have a bet with would really love to see your price come true. I may be in real trouble if $75 happens.
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm sticking with a greater price increase for AGQ over SLV at the end of the year. AGQ decay is a bump in the road, but not a stop sign in a bull market. In the real world I'm flipping between AGQ and ZSL to maximize profit (or loss
There is a guy here that I have a bet with would really love to see your price come true. I may be in real trouble if $75 happens. >>
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
As derryb points out, they're also a terrific way to multiply your losses during down periods
PS: How can I get in on that $75 silver side bet action? There's no way I can lose by betting it won't happen (it's a bet I'd happily lose, and sell every last silver dime to pay off)
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Leveraged investments are VERY popular when they move in the right direction.
As derryb points out, they're also a terrific way to multiply your losses during down periods
PS: How can I get in on that $75 silver side bet action? There's no way I can lose by betting it won't happen (it's a bet I'd happily lose, and sell every last silver dime to pay off) >>
Count me in also ... I need another contribution to my favorite Charity
<< <i>
<< <i>Leveraged investments are VERY popular when they move in the right direction.
As derryb points out, they're also a terrific way to multiply your losses during down periods
PS: How can I get in on that $75 silver side bet action? There's no way I can lose by betting it won't happen (it's a bet I'd happily lose, and sell every last silver dime to pay off) >>
Count me in also ... I need another contribution to my favorite Charity
Your charity collected from me last year when $50 silver was barely out of reach. Quit while you're ahead.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Leveraged investments are VERY popular when they move in the right direction.
As derryb points out, they're also a terrific way to multiply your losses during down periods
PS: How can I get in on that $75 silver side bet action? There's no way I can lose by betting it won't happen (it's a bet I'd happily lose, and sell every last silver dime to pay off) >>
Count me in also ... I need another contribution to my favorite Charity
Your charity collected from me last year when $50 silver was barely out of reach. Quit while you're ahead.
I don't quit when it comes to sure bets.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
3 month ILMN chart ....
:slapsforehead;
Oh well, at least I picked it for my <real> portfolio . . . in 2005
PS: DNDN is up 84% since Dec 30th.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I knew it would happen.
Warning: I nibbled on HALO last month.
<< <i>This may be the year that paper gets bit. >>
except for AGQ
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Yeah, I'm taking some profits in ILMN, BIIB, and QCOM today too. Cost basis on each < $10/share. Even beaten down AFFX is getting some of that M&A "pin action"
Warning: I nibbled on HALO last month.
Yeah, you and billionaire Randal J Kirk
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>GPRO got a nice bump off the Illumina pin action. Had to sell some of both today
Warning: I nibbled on HALO last month. >>
I don't have big positions, but I have Illumina and Life Sciences, I thought about taking some off in Illumina, but my hunch is to hold for now. Of course, could be maybe a mistake.
Little late, but my investment idea is to short triple leveraged ETFs on rips(at least 3 x price normal movement) if you have the capital to ride them out, long or short, even right or wrong on direction, they always want to eventually head toward zero. ( if these things couldn't do reverse splits they'd be in trouble)
Caveat Emptor: No, I haven't done it, would someone with abundant capital implement this strategy and let me know how it works
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
what, the decaying time value that eventually goes to zero for out of the money options?
PS: our town just got another Chipotle's... lines out the door for realatively healthy burritos the size of a football.
It's interesting how almost every picker is positive in one month, the two most negative took short positions. (twinturbo would current #1 in this thing if Long?)
Most of those % gains would be quite handsome for a whole year of returns, and it's only been four weeks.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
I'm not saying anything because I know from experience that silver can go down twice as much as well as it went up twice as much
Hey, a man's gotta do what a man's gotta do!
I knew it would happen.
My guess is cohodk is waiting for Feb 1. (CMG earnings).
Through COB 01/31/12
Rank Prev Rank Total % Chg
1 1 derryb 12,749 41.66
2 2 Wingsrule 11,153 23.92
3 4 jmski52 10,596 17.73
4 6 zrlevin 10,509 16.77
5 3 miklia 10,506 16.73
6 5 Coulport 10,475 16.39
7 7 Julio 10,148 12.76
8 8 fastrudy 10,066 11.84
9 11 Baley 9,994 11.04
10 13 TWQG 9,986 10.96
11 10 Pokermandude 9,905 10.06
12 9 HalfStrike 9,841 9.34
13 12 66tbird 9,607 6.74
14 15 jfloomis3 9,597 6.63
15 16 RedTiger 9,513 5.70
16 14 OPA 9,308 3.42
17 17 Justacommeman 9,269 2.99
18 18 gsa1fan 8,971 -0.32
19 19 streeter 8,864 -1.51
20 20 cohodk 5,903 -34.41
Average 9,848 9.42
1 1 *Tiggs2012 10,587 17.63
2 2 *tydye 9,601 6.68
3 3 *Dart Throw #1 9,446 4.96
4 4 *Dart Throw #2 9,390 4.33
5 5 *DrBuster 9,043 0.48
6 6 *TwinTurbo 5,012 -44.31
Average 8,847 -1.71
What goes up, must come down.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
<< <i>winner or leader?
What goes up, must come down.
I just hope the opposite is true