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***Official 25th Anniversary ASE Set First Strike®/NFS® PCGS Population Reports....Updated Sunday 02

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    epcjimi1epcjimi1 Posts: 3,489 ✭✭✭
    The Fickle Finger of Fate - that's what it is! image

    image
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    epcjimi1epcjimi1 Posts: 3,489 ✭✭✭
    And I think the FS vs. non-FS strike grading results posted shows an inconsistent process with special causes acting upon it, whether it be caused by man, environment or material.
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    AbsolutionAbsolution Posts: 336 ✭✭✭
    So technically....


    22,000 Graded sets
    13,000 70 Grades

    59% 70 Grades of graded


    BUTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

    100,000
    13,000 Graded 70 sets

    13% 70 Grades of total
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    As population of non FS coins grows the difference in reported grades between FS coin and non FS coins gets increasingly dificult to explain.
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    illini420illini420 Posts: 11,466 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>As population of non FS coins grows the difference in reported grades between FS coin and non FS coins gets increasingly dificult to explain. >>



    Especially since we know nearly all coins were sent in sight-unseen and not pre-screened by anyone. All of the 2011 bullion, 2011-W burnished and 2011-W proofs were definitely sent in sight-unseen sealed, otherwise they wouldn't have received the 25th anniversary set designation. Based on the numbers in the pop reports, it looks like very few 2011-P reverse proofs and 2011-S coins were pre-screened (just look at the number of those graded in excess of the other 3).

    The non-FS key coins actually have a small pop than the three non-keys in non-FS. That is because some folks sent in their sealed boxes and only had the 2 key coins graded FS and then had their 3 non-key coins graded w/o paying the FS fee. I saw a couple of orders like that in the shared order pages.

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    joefrojoefro Posts: 1,872 ✭✭
    If I had to guess, I'd say bulk orders may be getting more 70s because the graders get tired of looking at so many coins and don't scrutinize them as much as the person who sends in only one box. If you had to grade 200 in a row, I wonder if you still look at #185 as close as you looked at #1? I know it's not supposed to be that way but I can't help but put myself in the grader's shoes, realistically.
    Lincoln Cent & Libertad Collector
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    Anyone surprised that NGC has graded TWICE as many of these than PCGS?
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    illini420illini420 Posts: 11,466 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Anyone surprised that NGC has graded TWICE as many of these than PCGS? >>



    Not at all. If you want either FS or the ER labels, then NGC is about half the price of PCGS. Seems reason enough for them to have twice as many orders sent their way. Also, most folks know/believe that they have better chances at getting 70s from NGC, especially if you're just a collector sending in a few sets. Sure, the NGC sell for less, but if you're going to flip your 5 sets anyways, you'll do much better with 3-4 NGC 70 sets than you will with 1 PCGS 70 set (if you're lucky!).

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    OPAOPA Posts: 17,109 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Anyone surprised that NGC has graded TWICE as many of these than PCGS? >>



    Nope, not at all & that's one of the reasons why I would never buy a MODERN NGC graded coin.
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
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    NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 1,451 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>As population of non FS coins grows the difference in reported grades between FS coin and non FS coins gets increasingly dificult to explain. >>



    Especially since we know nearly all coins were sent in sight-unseen and not pre-screened by anyone. All of the 2011 bullion, 2011-W burnished and 2011-W proofs were definitely sent in sight-unseen sealed, otherwise they wouldn't have received the 25th anniversary set designation. Based on the numbers in the pop reports, it looks like very few 2011-P reverse proofs and 2011-S coins were pre-screened (just look at the number of those graded in excess of the other 3).

    The non-FS key coins actually have a small pop than the three non-keys in non-FS. That is because some folks sent in their sealed boxes and only had the 2 key coins graded FS and then had their 3 non-key coins graded w/o paying the FS fee. I saw a couple of orders like that in the shared order pages. >>



    Based on the shared reports, to me the $64,000 question is whether the difference is between FS and non-FS, or between bulk and regular. Again, based on the shared reports, non-bulk FS and non-FS appear to be grading at similar ratios, but the bulk FS submissions seem to be pulling the total reported FS 70s up. Does anyone have an opinion on this one way or the other? Is there some flaw in the way I'm seeing this? Thanks for any insight! -- Mark
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    Can anyone guess how many bulk submissions there are relative to collector submissions based on the graded numbers from earlier on?
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    CocoinutCocoinut Posts: 2,505 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I went with the non-FS labels, and received 5/25 in MS or PR70. Based on the results I had previously seen, figured I'd have a minimum of 7 or 8 in 70, possibly many more, so I was really disappointed in the results. When my submission was received, I got a call from a PCGS representative asking if I wanted First Strike labels, even though my submission form clearly stated I did not. Were/are different people grading the non-FS orders, did standards become tighter, or did I receive a bad batch of coins? BTW, I had 3 68's and 7 69's along with the 5 70's, and the only coin I did not get in 70 was the bullion coin, so I can put together a complete 70 set without much trouble or expense.

    Jim
    Countdown to completion of my Mercury Set: 2 coins. My growing Lincoln Set: Finally completed!
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    ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 5,528 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Anyone surprised that NGC has graded TWICE as many of these than PCGS? >>


    Nope, not at all & that's one of the reasons why I would never buy a MODERN NGC graded coin. >>


    I agree. That's why PCGS sells at a premium.
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    I do have a few 25th sets that are pcgs mercanti and flags and almost all coins have a nick or spot of some sort.I think everyone is being way to easy on grades.
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    Does anyone know the numbers difference between Mercanti sets and flag labels in 70 grade ???
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    53BKid53BKid Posts: 2,172 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Anyone surprised that NGC has graded TWICE as many of these than PCGS? >>


    Nope, not at all & that's one of the reasons why I would never buy a MODERN NGC graded coin. >>


    I agree. That's why PCGS sells at a premium. >>



    image I won't even look at any NGC moderns. They're just a distraction to me.
    HAPPY COLLECTING!!!
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    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Anyone surprised that NGC has graded TWICE as many of these than PCGS? >>


    Nope, not at all & that's one of the reasons why I would never buy a MODERN NGC graded coin. >>


    I agree. That's why PCGS sells at a premium. >>



    What premium? When you take into account the extra grading fees charges by PCGS there is no premium. It's more like an illusion of a premium.image
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    GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 16,948 ✭✭✭✭✭

    No surprises this week....it still amazes me that the ratio of First Strike to Non first Strike is ~35 to 1


    As of 12/25/11

    First Strike®..............

    image
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    image


    Non First Strike............................

    image
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    image
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    OPAOPA Posts: 17,109 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>No surprises this week....it still amazes me that the ratio of First Strike to Non first Strike is ~35 to 1 >>



    That should not be a surprise...judging from what the FS are pulling in over the non FS coins on eBay. Flag Label FS are the big winners so far.
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
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    goldbuffalogoldbuffalo Posts: 618 ✭✭✭
    I find it amazing that something like 55% of all FS are 70's,

    But

    Only like, 30% of Non FS are 70's.

    Seems statically impossible to me.



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    PokermandudePokermandude Posts: 2,712 ✭✭✭
    Wow, the ratio of 70's to 69's sure dropped off in a hurry. Looks like in a short time the ratio will be 1:1 (for first strikes), when it started at almost 2:1 in favour of 70's. The non-first strikes are coming out the gate at 2-3 69's per 70... I think I'll bit my tongue now and let people draw their own conclusions from these stats.
    http://stores.ebay.ca/Mattscoin - Canadian coins, World Coins, Silver, Gold, Coin lots, Modern Mint Products & Collections
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    GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 16,948 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Wow, the ratio of 70's to 69's sure dropped off in a hurry. Looks like in a short time the ratio will be 1:1 (for first strikes), when it started at almost 2:1 in favour of 70's. The non-first strikes are coming out the gate at 2-3 69's per 70... I think I'll bit my tongue now and let people draw their own conclusions from these stats. >>



    You make some good points on this week's pops.
    The 70 FS to 69 FS ratio is definitely tightening.....just a few weeks ago the 70 grade was an easy achievement.
    Your second observation on the Non FS's is perplexing to me also.
    It does not even closely follow the FS trend of grading!!!!
    Are the non first striker submitters embarrassed about their ASE's? image
    Did the Mint fire the Quality Control dept. a few weeks after the early minting of these sets?
    All I can say at this juncture, time is on our our side.
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    Pretty interesting stuff. Thanks for posting the chart, Goldbully. As with Pokerman I'll bite my tongue.

    Anyone know how the ratios compare to the '06s? I can't get in and look at the pops.
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    << <i>Wow, the ratio of 70's to 69's sure dropped off in a hurry. Looks like in a short time the ratio will be 1:1 (for first strikes), when it started at almost 2:1 in favour of 70's. The non-first strikes are coming out the gate at 2-3 69's per 70... I think I'll bit my tongue now and let people draw their own conclusions from these stats.

    Could it be Possible that the strike on latter minted coins is weakening, That might explain why latter minted coins are not doing as well grade wise!
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    << <i>Pretty interesting stuff. Thanks for posting the chart, Goldbully. As with Pokerman I'll bite my tongue.

    Anyone know how the ratios compare to the '06s? I can't get in and look at the pops. >>


    Here they are for the 2006 RP. The last column is total for all grades. Column to the left of the last column is 70, then 69, etc.

    image
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    Thanks Coasterfan! Wow, quite a difference. Much more difficult to get 70s with the 06s.
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    << <i>Thanks Coasterfan! Wow, quite a difference. Much more difficult to get 70s with the 06s. >>


    As was everything the mint produced in 06. Last few years apparently minting technology has improved.
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    << <i>Thanks Coasterfan! Wow, quite a difference. Much more difficult to get 70s with the 06s. >>


    Yep, if you want a PCGS 70 set of ASE reverse proofs, the 06 will be the toughest to get, even though 250K were minted.
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    CCC2010CCC2010 Posts: 1,996 ✭✭✭
    So whats holding up our host(PCGS) with the price guide for the 25th Anniversary 2011-S First Strike MS70....Any thoughts why they're still unable to determine the price image
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    GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 16,948 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>So whats holding up our host(PCGS) with the price guide for the 25th Anniversary 2011-S First Strike MS70....Any thoughts why they're still unable to determine the price image >>



    I posted this on another thread........

    No decision made on the MS70 2011-s yet.....what say you???

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image

    They gave the MS69 a value of $300, same as the 69 RP.
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    CCC2010CCC2010 Posts: 1,996 ✭✭✭
    Maybe the Head Price Guide person went on a Holiday break image
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    << Wow, the ratio of 70's to 69's sure dropped off in a hurry. Looks like in a short time the ratio will be 1:1 (for first strikes), when it started at almost 2:1 in favour of 70's. The non-first strikes are coming out the gate at 2-3 69's per 70... I think I'll bit my tongue now and let people draw their own conclusions from these stats.

    Could it be Possible that the strike on latter minted coins is weakening, That might explain why latter minted coins are not doing as well grade wise!

    ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................

    No that is not the reason.

    FIRST STRIKE LABELS HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH WHEN COINS WERE STRUCK OR CONDITION OF DIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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    GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 16,948 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Could it be Possible that the strike on latter minted coins is weakening, That might explain why latter minted coins are not doing as well grade wise!

    I and a few others have mentioned that premise.
    I'm sorry, but on a premium set issue, the Mint QC team should certainly be on top of die conditions and final pass coins.
    Agreed that First Strike means nothing on the "WHEN", but it is an amazing anomoly that they are grading 69 in droves!! image
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    illini420illini420 Posts: 11,466 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Could it be Possible that the strike on latter minted coins is weakening, That might explain why latter minted coins are not doing as well grade wise!

    I and a few others have mentioned that premise.
    I'm sorry, but on a premium set issue, the Mint QC team should certainly be on top of die conditions and final pass coins.
    Agreed that First Strike means nothing on the "WHEN", but it is an amazing anomoly that they are grading 69 in droves!! image >>




    Just because the folks didn't pay $18 for First Strike, doesn't mean they were minted later or even received from the Mint at a later date. I received my sets from the Mint well before the FS deadline, but didn't think it worthwhile to pay an extra $450 for a different label for my 5 sets. Quality of the coins received from the Mint and/or the date people received them has absolutely nothing to do with the difference in grading on the bulk FS vs. regular FS vs. non-FS...

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    53BKid53BKid Posts: 2,172 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Thanks Coasterfan! Wow, quite a difference. Much more difficult to get 70s with the 06s. >>


    As was everything the mint produced in 06. Last few years apparently minting technology has improved. >>



    I am a lot more cynical than that.
    HAPPY COLLECTING!!!
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    Hello Goldbully: I have been watching this thread for some time now and was waiting to receive my 10 sets back so I can see how they fared compared to everybody elses. I choose to have First Strikes and to get the flag holder. These sets were received one week apart from the Mint. The first five sets were received 11/07/2011 and the second five sets were received from the Mint on 11/14/2011. I can prove that latter received sets have no difference on the grade of the coins:

    The 2011-S coins I received 0/70 grades out of 10.
    The 2011 no mint mark coins had 2/70 grades out of 10.
    The 2011-W coins had 4/70 grades out of 10.
    The 2011-W Proof coins had 3/70 grades out of 10.
    The 2011-P Reverse Proof coins had 4/70 grades out of 10.

    How can the most expensive coin not even have 1 70 graded coin? At least I only had 1 PR68DC and all the rest of the coins graded 69. I am very disappointed with these grades and when these coins were received from the Mint a week apart can't explain why the 2011-S has no 70 grades. It has to be 1 grader grading all 10 of the 2011-S coins and it must have been a Monday?? I don't have the coins back yet and was wondering if a person could have PCGS take a second look at those 2011-S coins and see if the grader was asleep at the wheel? I don't think it is right that one person can decide whether your going to buy groceries or not just because they are having a bad hair day? I think I should have sold all of them raw sealed in the boxes. At least I would have doubled my money.

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    fishcookerfishcooker Posts: 3,446 ✭✭
    You bet the grocery money on First Strike?
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    People seem to be very clouded when it comes to the grading game and how to turn the most profit out of your sets. Would you either send in 5 sets ATS and get 2-3 sets graded MS70 and have a mix of 69s or would you rather have 5 sent to our hosts and net 1 70 set and the rest 69s. People counter with the fact that sets ATS are worth less but youre also spending much more with our hosts.

    Take for example...in my case I send 4 sets ATS and paid a total of 385 for 4 sets. I wouldve paid around $700 to get the same service with our hosts (First Strike, etc). I netted a perfect submission, and all came back MS70/PF70. I highly doubt that wouldve been the case with our hosts and even lets say at the best case scenario I wouldve netted 2 perfect sets. Here would be the breakdown in profit for me:

    PCGS
    2 perfect sets= approx $1400 each; $2800 for both
    2 69 sets= Approx $750 each

    So between both sets I wouldve earned roughly $4300 but take away the fees of $700 and my net is roughly 3600

    NGC
    4 perfect sets worth approx $4,800

    Take away the fees of $385 and Im still left with approx 4415 which is a big difference of over $800.

    Even if i wouldve scored 3 perfect sets with our hosts after taking away the fees I still wouldve been better ATS. Granted this is all hypothetical but from a profit standpoint the clear choice is evident
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    wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 16,796 ✭✭✭✭✭
    "Granted this is all hypothetical"

    It sure is!

    I am doing just fine with PCGS graded coins and so are many other folks.

    We all have our good days and bad days at the grading "roulette table". Right in front of me, I am looking at a PCGS-MS63 2011-S I recently got back in one of my bulk batches. Darn thing looks like an MS64 to me all day long (NOT)! The graders are looking at the coins carefully. I have seen a few THOUSAND PCGS 25th Anniv slabs already. Overall, amazing consistency thus far with the grading! No joke ... some of the most consistent grading I have seen in the past 10-15 years.

    Wondercoin image
    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
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    << <i>"Granted this is all hypothetical"

    It sure is!

    I am doing just fine with PCGS graded coins and so are many other folks.

    We all have our good days and bad days at the grading "roulette table". Right in front of me, I am looking at a PCGS-MS63 2011-S I recently got back in one of my bulk batches. Darn thing looks like an MS64 to me all day long (NOT)! The graders are looking at the coins carefully. I have seen a few THOUSAND PCGS 25th Anniv slabs already. Overall, amazing consistency thus far with the grading! No joke ... some of the most consistent grading I have seen in the past 10-15 years.

    Wondercoin image >>



    It's always good to get the counter conspiracy theory image. Keeps things grounded.
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    << <i>People seem to be very clouded when it comes to the grading game and how to turn the most profit out of your sets. Would you either send in 5 sets ATS and get 2-3 sets graded MS70 and have a mix of 69s or would you rather have 5 sent to our hosts and net 1 70 set and the rest 69s. People counter with the fact that sets ATS are worth less but youre also spending much more with our hosts.

    Take for example...in my case I send 4 sets ATS and paid a total of 385 for 4 sets. I wouldve paid around $700 to get the same service with our hosts (First Strike, etc). I netted a perfect submission, and all came back MS70/PF70. I highly doubt that wouldve been the case with our hosts and even lets say at the best case scenario I wouldve netted 2 perfect sets. Here would be the breakdown in profit for me:

    PCGS
    2 perfect sets= approx $1400 each; $2800 for both
    2 69 sets= Approx $750 each

    So between both sets I wouldve earned roughly $4300 but take away the fees of $700 and my net is roughly 3600

    NGC
    4 perfect sets worth approx $4,800

    Take away the fees of $385 and Im still left with approx 4415 which is a big difference of over $800.

    Even if i wouldve scored 3 perfect sets with our hosts after taking away the fees I still wouldve been better ATS. Granted this is all hypothetical but from a profit standpoint the clear choice is evident >>



    I sent mine ATS just for this reason and scored 4/6 sets MS 70 for about $600 grading and shipping fees (both ways) with OGP returned. I'm certainly glad I sent mine to them and I ran the probabilities like you before submitting. I have to go to the PO this morning to pick them up. Mailman tried to deliver them yesterday but no one was home. As of current pricing those sets would net about $6000. I'd bet the farm that beats what they would net if submitted to our host.
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    ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 5,528 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Sorry, can someone tell me what ATS means?
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    drfishdrfish Posts: 938 ✭✭✭✭
    NGC
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    CCC2010CCC2010 Posts: 1,996 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Sorry, can someone tell me what ATS means? >>



    ATS= Across The Street= NGC image
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    shorecollshorecoll Posts: 5,445 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Mitch,

    Have you seen no difference in grading between the first two weeks and now?
    ANA-LM, NBS, EAC
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    wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 16,796 ✭✭✭✭✭
    "Mitch, Have you seen no difference in grading between the first two weeks and now?"

    Virtually none at all ... I say "virtually" because obviously every submission is different than the next. The very, very first submission I got back, which I believe was in that two week window you mention (which was for a board member by the way) yielded 6 70's sets and some scattered extra 70's out of 15 sealed sets. He did great, especially because the 70 sets were worth $2,500+ at that time. I have received orders back since then (including last week) where the complete 70 sets (on a percentage basis) were higher and lower than that first result. Overall, board members have been "thrilled" with their results on all of their submissions I handled for them of these coins. As I have said myriad times here on the board, the problem with the "conspiracy theory" is that ANY board member can simply go to their favorite dealer and ask to submit the coins for them under the dealer's account. PCGS has no idea who actually owns the coins I am submitting on my invoices. The Board member gets his/her special Submission number from the submission form submitted to PCGS and can track the results that way.

    As always, just my 2 cents.
    Wondercoin
    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
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    fishcooker: When I said the thing about the grocery money it was a figure of speach. What I'm saying is how can 10 of the most expensive coins in the sets come back with no 70's and they had to have been graded by one grader? Can someone here on this forum tell me if I am right or not whether on one person would have graded those 10 2011-S coins? Plus, how can 5 sets sent from the Mint a week apart come up with the same grades. Does anybody else have coins from the Mint shipped on 11/7/2011 and 11/14/2011 and graded with no 2011-S 70 coins in all 10 sets? Please can anybody explain to me how this could even be possible?
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    OPAOPA Posts: 17,109 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>How can the most expensive coin not even have 1 70 graded coin? Text >>



    I see you have 4 graded 70 on the "most expensive" coins....don't know where you're coming up with zilch.image
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
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    You could probably trade two of those Rv Proofs for S mints and have two full sets of 70s. Getting 0/10 sucks though.
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    SNMANSNMAN Posts: 1,402 ✭✭✭
    300
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