I am starting to get the uneasy feeling again. I, unfortunately, use the pilots I fly with as one of several barometers. I just had dinner with one barometer and he says his 401k is about the level it was 2 years ago. And he said it with a sigh of relief and asked what should he do now. I hear more and more talk of a rebound, cargo loads are increasing slighty and yet the reigns on us are still very tight (by the company.)
Many things have to fundamentally change for me to believe in any real recovery. I can see bubble generated recoveries by the likes of Government Sachs, but these are just covering up the gigantic atomic debt bomb about to explode.
<< <i>There will be no genuine recovery until real job growth is achieved. You cannot have a jobless recovery. >>
Jobs will be plentiful when all the baby boomers retire. In fact, in 15 or so years we will have a labor shortage.
But, we really dont want everyone working as there is a segment of the population-while able bodied-in unfit for work.
A different situation is Japan, where for even the last 20 years unemployment has been in the low single digits, yet their economy has had no sustainable growth.
I didn't say that everyone should be working either, just that we need a growth in employment in order to have any hopes of economic recovery. I suppose in lieu of job growth, we could achieve a productivity improvement somehow, but those options are limited.
Unfortunately, a lot of the baby boomers are not retiring because of their dwindling 401k's They are not making way for the 20-30 somethings to come into the workforce. Unemployment in that age group is close to 16%. The Baltimore Sun did a story on this but can't find it.
The bulk of the boomers were boom from 1956 to 1962, so the oldest of this peak are only 53. They have at least another 12 years of gainful employment. 2027 the youngest boomers will be 65 and the boom will be largely out of the workforce. The effects of the declining workforce will be felt probably 7 years earlier.
This is not a USA problem. Europe and Japan have even older populations and are in more of a pickle. Be prepared for "war" over which region will attract the most immigrants to pick up the slack. Wait till you see how the immigration debate progresses. Which region...USA, Europe, Japan, will be able to dangle the juciest carrot to attract new residents?
<< <i>The bulk of the boomers were boom from 1956 to 1962, so the oldest of this peak are only 53. They have at least another 12 years of gainful employment. 2027 the youngest boomers will be 65 and the boom will be largely out of the workforce. The effects of the declining workforce will be felt probably 7 years earlier.
This is not a USA problem. Europe and Japan have even older populations and are in more of a pickle. Be prepared for "war" over which region will attract the most immigrants to pick up the slack. Wait till you see how the immigration debate progresses. Which region...USA, Europe, Japan, will be able to dangle the juciest carrot to attract new residents? >>
The baby boom started in the spring of 1946 fueled by the returning soldiers from the European theatre. It was in full swing by the end of 1947 and peaked in '54/ '55, I believe.
Social Security defines it as starting on 1-1-46. The first of these have just begun retiring.
<< <i>The baby boom started in the spring of 1946 fueled by the returning soldiers from the European theatre. It was in full swing by the end of 1947 and peaked in '54/ '55, I believe.
Social Security defines it as starting on 1-1-46. The first of these have just begun retiring. >>
Yes the boom did start in '46 but of course many have retired before the 62 1/2 year age required by SS. 1954 was the first year of < 4,000,000 births and this high rate continued through 1964, the final year of the "baby boom". The U.S. birthrate did not exceed 4,000,000 again until 1990!
1956 through 1962 were the peak years as cohodk noted. I also agree that around 2020 we will note large numbers leaving the U.S. workforce. I was born in Sept. of '64 and am at the very end of the "baby boom". Retirement before 2030 looks very unlikely for me unless I retire to the cemetary before then!
In the United States, approximately 79 million babies were born during the Baby Boom. Much of this cohort of nineteen years (1946-1964) grew up with Woodstock, the Vietnam War, and John F. Kennedy as president.
In 2006, the oldest Baby Boomers turned 60 years old, including the first two Baby Boomer presidents, Presidents William J. Clinton and George W. Bush, both born in the first year of the Baby Boom, 1946.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
When social security was instituted, it was with benefits starting at age 65, when the life expectancy at the time was 62. Now that life expectancy is 77, why not increase the benefits age to 80? That certainly would put a big dent in the SS problem.
<< <i>And more trivia, although not so trivial....
When social security was instituted, it was with benefits starting at age 65, when the life expectancy at the time was 62. Now that life expectancy is 77, why not increase the benefits age to 80? That certainly would put a big dent in the SS problem. >>
Just a thought: Why don't we transition to IRA's exclusively? No government handouts and no employer defined benefit plans. Everyone to have their own private plan. Mandatory funding from your paycheck thru the gov't, just like FICA is now, but then forwarded to your registered custodian of choice. Then you can retire when you damned well please without a myriad of regulations governing your life choices.
For those in retirement or nearing it, we can make block grants to their custodial accounts. Would only be a couple of trillion $ from that mythical 'fund' the gov't draws on to pay benefits now. ( Anytime I think of how many peeps believe that the gov't has put your retirement money away for you, I just crack-up.)
BTW, Chile did this years ago. The plan has about a 95% approval rating. You can't get 95% of peeps to agree on the weather outside right now so it must really work well.
Just a thought: Why don't we transition to IRA's exclusively? No government handouts and no employer defined benefit plans. Everyone to have their own private plan. Mandatory funding from your paycheck thru the gov't, just like FICA is now, but then forwarded to your registered custodian of choice. Then you can retire when you damned well please without a myriad of regulations governing your life choices.
Companies have been moving away from defined benefit plans for the past 5-10 years. But one problem with any IRA is finding a suitable (ie "guaranteed") vehicle that earns the employee a rate well above inflation/dollar devaluation and protects against deflation through all the years leading up to retirement. A large % of employees will probably end up losing money to inflation/deflationary forces. The game of stocks and bonds is now heavily tilted in the casino's favor. Unless you bet like you were in a casino odds are you won't come out ahead. Bush wanted to get his hands on the IRA's/401K's thinking that the govt could do it better while handing a ton of fees to the bankers/brokers. Considering what we've gone through the past 2 yrs, it's quite clear the govt can't do it better and that whatever glory years existed for stocks and bonds from 1982-2007 is now gone. That was built on infinite credit and pure fiat. Game, set and match to the bankers and power brokers. Going forward there is no simple answer that I can see to heavily tilt retirement funding towards the employee especially with all the financial and economic "levers" that typically work against the common worker.
China just announced to 6 foreign banks (probably JPM, GS, HSBC, BoA, Citi, WF) that they might not pay up on any otc default derivatives losses issued by those banks. This could get interesting. So far the FED/Treasury have been happy to dump money into the AIGs, Lehmans, Bear Stearns, etc to help pay off the winners with taxpayer money. China doesn't want to participate and would rather default basically claiming that the contracts were fraudulent from the start.
I am starting to get the uneasy feeling again. I, unfortunately, use the pilots I fly with as one of several barometers. I just had dinner with one barometer and he says his 401k is about the level it was 2 years ago. And he said it with a sigh of relief and asked what should he do now. I hear more and more talk of a rebound, cargo loads are increasing slighty and yet the reigns on us are still very tight (by the company.)
Many things have to fundamentally change for me to believe in any real recovery. I can see bubble generated recoveries by the likes of Government Sachs, but these are just covering up the gigantic atomic debt bomb about to explode.
R95 >>
the market increased dramatically so far this year, but i think the economy is still very weak
<< <i>Just a thought: Why don't we transition to IRA's exclusively? No government handouts and no employer defined benefit plans. Everyone to have their own private plan. Mandatory funding from your paycheck thru the gov't, just like FICA is now, but then forwarded to your registered custodian of choice. Then you can retire when you damned well please without a myriad of regulations governing your life choices.
For those in retirement or nearing it, we can make block grants to their custodial accounts. Would only be a couple of trillion $ from that mythical 'fund' the gov't draws on to pay benefits now. ( Anytime I think of how many peeps believe that the gov't has put your retirement money away for you, I just crack-up.)
BTW, Chile did this years ago. The plan has about a 95% approval rating. You can't get 95% of peeps to agree on the weather outside right now so it must really work well. >>
Dude stop making sense! This is Washington we are talking about. Common sense is not common in goverment.
Si vis pacem, para bellum
In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
Quoted from another thread, but I thought it fit this thread better...
-The commencement of a typical 15-20 yr commodity bull market starting in 2001
The latter stages of bull markets is where the big, fast money is made. As I mentioned earlier there will be a worker shortage in 10 years. Wages will invariably increase at that time. This is when we can expect inflation. It may take a minimum wage of $20-25/hour to get the marginal worket into the workforce.
“The latter stages of bull markets is where the big, fast money is made. As I mentioned earlier there will be a worker shortage in 10 years. Wages will invariably increase at that time. This is when we can expect inflation. It may take a minimum wage of $20-25/hour to get the marginal worket into the workforce.”
Dave in a stable society I would agree with you, but there are some other factors to look at here.
First: The 78 million baby boomers are not going to be buying, boats, cars, big houses, second homes, full wardrobes, etc. the way they did in the past decade. So we won’t need a lot of that STUFF made.
Second: we already have 20 million illegals here, and it is easy enough to get in the country. Who really believes all these folks will go home?
Third: I believe we have had a true psychology change in the minds of the folks that have most of the money. They are tired of getting screwed by Wall Street, and all the other, fast money salesman. I believe we are going to go back to a real savings, and pay as you go society. This may take a few years but it is on the way.
Fourth: As we go socialist, there will just be less real spend able income. Perhaps we will see your $25 per hour minimum wage but it will be inflated dollars that will buy no more than it does today.
China out spending dollars to buy up the world, Ha ha ha
Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) — PetroChina Co., China’s largest oil company, has bought its first stake in a Canadian oil sands project for C$1.9 billion ($1.7 billion) as the nation increases efforts to secure resources overseas.
PetroChina will take 60 percent stakes in Athabasca Oil Sands Corp.’s MacKay River and Dover oil-sands, according to a statement from the Canadian company yesterday. The investment may be PetroChina’s biggest acquisition inNorth America, spokesman Mao Zefeng said today.
China has spent more than $13 billion on overseas energy assets since December and PetroChina officials said last week the company plans further purchases. Oil sands resources are harder to exploit than conventional fields and the deal underscores China’s determination to snare reserves, said Gordon Kwan, an energy analyst at Mirae Asset Securities in Hong Kong.
Perhaps we will see your $25 per hour minimum wage but it will be inflated dollars that will buy no more than it does today.
Then that in fact is the inflation. Perhaps even the "hyper" inflation that many seek.
GS,
The population of the US is growing and is projected to do so for another 50 years. This all translates into increased demand for goods and services. Perhaps not at the same growth rate, but nonetheless, growth. Contrast this with Europe, especially Russia, and Japan that will see declining populations by 2030.
I dont expect the illegals to go home at all. In fact, I think the major industralized countries will be vying (aggressively) for them. Who's gonna take care off all those old farts? Who will maintain their households? If you wanted to immigrate to another country, would you choose the USA or England or Japan?
In Japan, the population is projected to be 30% less by 2050. What will they do will all those extra houses, hospitals, grocery stores? Who will man the factories if Japan is still to be a major exporting economy?
The concerns you bring up are the same as in 1934. Life as many knew it came to an abrupt end. The stock market crashed, real estate crashed, Govt spending exploded, tax receipts vanished. Many were concerned about all the Irish/English/Italians who came to America in the early part of the century. A generation later--the mid 50s-- the economy was roaring. History will repeat. Just as it is now.
<< <i> The concerns you bring up are the same as in 1934. Life as many knew it came to an abrupt end. The stock market crashed, real estate crashed, Govt spending exploded, tax receipts vanished. Many were concerned about all the Irish/English/Italians who came to America in the early part of the century. A generation later--the mid 50s-- the economy was roaring. History will repeat. Just as it is now. >>
cohodk, I agree with you here, but you seem to have left out an important part of the cycle. Something happened shortly after 1934...
...1939.
The world war and the societal upheaval allowed the immigrants to assimilate into American society and the resulting military industrial complex put the USA at the top of the world order.
History repeats itself, but it is never the same twice. Any repeating of the last centuries cycles would be very bad all around.
Mark Piersall Random Collector www.marksmedals.com
GOLD UP $22.00 TODAY!!!! I tried to buy some last week, "selller" would not let go of those Maple Leafs. I'll be buying next week. Not afraid to buy at this time. It's a hedge against inflation.
<< <i>GOLD UP $22.00 TODAY!!!! I tried to buy some last week, "seller" would not let go of those Maple Leafs. I'll be buying next week. Not afraid to buy at this time. It's a hedge against inflation. >>
//// And to think! I was trying to sell 50% of my gold 2 days ago but could find no buyers. I guess I was lucky! I will be holding on longer I guess.
Many successful BST transactions ajia (x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes, mariner67, and Mikes coins
I am still buying small amounts every month but it is hard to pull the trigger with what I was paying 5 years ago.
All in all my gold purchases this year are still ahead of the oil stocks I bought at the first of the year.
In addition the ETF's are crumbling due to the manipulation of the new government rules. I see that Barclay's closed their double oil ETF because of the new rules.
Dave perhaps you will be right but in 15 or 20 years I am sure that not many in my group will really care.
All of the great empires ended in a flurry of socialistic/communistic behavior so why should we be different?
Oh, I heard on the talk shows today that the President is going to give lectures to school age kids starting on the 8th of September. He is going to instruct them how they can help the President push his agenda, does that sound familiar?
A well put-together summary by a JS reader of the major issues regarding China's possible stance on declaring derivative contracts as fraudulent. Something that JS concurs the US should have considered from the start. Certainly this news is at least short term gold positive. It seemd that bond yields have dropped even faster since this came out. The Chinese have seen the major banks and brokers receive Trillions in bailout ransom money and no doubt would like to partake in that regardless of what side of the trade they are on. For those not familiar with JS, MOPEr is a term coined for management of the economic perception (ie rather than fixing the economic problem at the roots, just manage public perception).
These recent rumblings about Chinese Government State-Owned Enterprises ("SOEs") reserving the right to terminate certain derivative contracts could be the story of the year. I say "could" because the MOPErs are certain to do everything in their power to keep it from the public.
It’s too early to comment on exactly what is taking place. The news accounts are all over the map. However, I can tell you based on 25 years’ professional experience that you are right on the money in saying there are many fraud-based legal arguments that potentially give parties such as the SOEs the legal right to walk away from these derivative contracts.
The MOPErs have been quick to vilify the Chinese Government even though it is clear they do not know the facts and have not considered the legal issues. On Monday night after comments were first posted here on JSMineset about this story, I searched the web for additional information. I came across a Reuters article titled "Banks uneasy over report China state companies assert right to default of derivatives trades." That article contained the following statements:
(1) "It’s a handful of companies who are being encouraged by regulators to renegotiate," said a second banking source. It’s outrageous, but it’s China, so everyone is treading very carefully."
(2) "For banks that are hoping to sell more derivatives hedges in China, the world’s fastest-expanding major economy and top commodities consumer, the danger goes beyond the immediate risk to existing contracts to the longer-term precedent that suggests Chinese companies can simply renege on deals when they like."
(3) "Beijing-based derivatives lawyers said the so-called "legal letter" has no legal standing – [the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission] as a shareholder has no business relationship with international banks. "It’s like the father suddenly told the creditors of his debt-ridden son that his son won’t pay any of his debt," said a lawyer from the derivatives risks committee of the Beijing Lawyers Association."
These are incendiary comments that we can be assured are being read by the Chinese government. As you have stated many times in the past, it’s a very bad idea to go around hurling insults at the banker you have come to rely upon most.
Even more to the point, there would be nothing "outrageous" about the Chinese government giving notice to the sellers of these derivative contracts that it believes it has legal grounds to void the contracts.
More recent followers of this site may not know that Jim has been calling out these derivative contracts as being inherently fraudulent for at least a decade. Jim has focused on the fact that the sellers knew that even under the slightest pressure (meaning events not playing out the way the sellers expected them to) the sellers knew they wouldn’t be able to hold up their end of the bargain.
In my view "derivatives" is a fancy word for bets. The financial companies that sell them are basically bookies. These bookies, instead of holding onto the bets and/or laying them off to make sure the winners get paid, book them as profits and pay them out to themselves in executive bonuses. If they start losing the bets the company goes up in smoke. This is the AIG situation.
Another illegal aspect of these contracts is that they were in many cases developed specifically to allow risky investments by customers who by law should not be able to take on risky investments. These customers include treasurers for companies, states and municipalities, money market fund managers and pension fund fiduciaries. This is a subject covered at length by Frank Partnoy in his book, Fiasco, about his experiences selling derivatives on Wall Street between 1993 and 1995.
The financial companies make over-the-top commissions selling these contracts and their management earn bonuses based on short-term profits. Therefore, they have an enormous incentive to mislead customers with respect to the risks the customers are taking on.
As Jim and many other contributors to this site have stated in the past, what the Chinese Government appears to be doing now is exactly what the US Government should have done as soon as the derivatives mess started to blow up. This approach would have had the best chance of preserving the banking system and avoiding hardships to the general public. Instead, the Fed and Treasury adopted an exclusive strategy of funneling public money to the entities that created the mess in the first place.
The Chinese Government’s action therefore has the potential to expose how massively Western governments mishandled the crisis and rewarded the people who should better have been criminally prosecuted. Candidly, I won’t be holding my breath waiting for that to happen. So far, the general public has not been able to connect the dots on any of this.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out .....Richard B
Ned and Barbara Petrucci lost about 35 percent of their life savings in the stock market and have made only a little of it back in recent months.
To the long list of reasons American companies aren’t hiring — business losses, tight credit, consumer retrenchment — add the fact that many of their older workers are unable, or afraid, to retire.
In other parts of the developed world, people are retiring as planned, because of relatively flush state and corporate pensions that await them. But here in the United States, financial security in old age rests increasingly on private savings, which have taken a beating in the last year.
Prospective retirees are clinging to their jobs despite some cherished life plans. As a result, companies are not only reluctant to create new jobs, but have fewer job openings to fill from attrition. For the 14 million Americans looking for work — a number expected to rise in Friday’s jobs report for August — this lack of turnover has made a tough job market even tougher.
Not a new world currency, just more paper, but a way out of some dollars.
Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund, which in July outlined plans to issue bonds to member countries, signed an agreement with China under which the Asian nation would buy as much as $50 billion of the notes.
The note-purchase agreement is the first of its kind, the Washington-based IMF said yesterday in an e-mailed statement. It enables China to take part in a $500 billion increase in the lender’s resources to which the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations agreed in April.
“The agreement offers China a safe investment instrument,” the IMF said. “It will also boost the fund’s capacity to help its membership -- particularly the developing and emerging market countries -- weather the global financial crisis, and facilitate an early recovery of the global economy.”
The notes will be denominated in Special Drawing Rights, or SDRs, the unit of account that China has said should have a greater role in the global economy over time to reduce the U.S. dollar’s dominance.
Just a thought: Why don't we transition to IRA's exclusively? No government handouts and no employer defined benefit plans. Everyone to have their own private plan. Mandatory funding from your paycheck thru the gov't, just like FICA is now, but then forwarded to your registered custodian of choice. Then you can retire when you damned well please without a myriad of regulations governing your life choices.
I don't even have an IRA or a 401K anymore. My retirement savings are totally private and are only subject to government income tax provisions. I no longer worry about a myriad of regulations governing my life choices. I am fully vested in my own 100% secret and confidential retirement plan - owned, operated and managed by the very best and most trusted money manager that I have ever encountered - me. I don't need no stinkin' government involvement, and I certainly don't need a "custodian" to "manage" my account for me.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Just a thought: Why don't we transition to IRA's exclusively? No government handouts and no employer defined benefit plans. Everyone to have their own private plan. Mandatory funding from your paycheck thru the gov't, just like FICA is now, but then forwarded to your registered custodian of choice. Then you can retire when you damned well please without a myriad of regulations governing your life choices.
I don't even have an IRA or a 401K anymore. My retirement savings are totally private and are only subject to government income tax provisions. I no longer worry about a myriad of regulations governing my life choices. I am fully vested in my own 100% secret and confidential retirement plan - owned, operated and managed by the very best and most trusted money manager that I have ever encountered - me. I don't need no stinkin' government involvement, and I certainly don't need a "custodian" to "manage" my account for me. >>
I don't even have an IRA or a 401K anymore. My retirement savings are totally private and are only subject to government income tax provisions. I no longer worry about a myriad of regulations governing my life choices. I am fully vested in my own 100% secret and confidential retirement plan - owned, operated and managed by the very best and most trusted money manager that I have ever encountered - me. I don't need no stinkin' government involvement, and I certainly don't need a "custodian" to "manage" my account for me.
ME also.
Dumped my IRA years ago and just paid the tax. The less these socialist know about my stuff the harder it will be to pry it loose.
I don't even have an IRA or a 401K anymore. My retirement savings are totally private and are only subject to government income tax provisions. I no longer worry about a myriad of regulations governing my life choices. I am fully vested in my own 100% secret and confidential retirement plan - owned, operated and managed by the very best and most trusted money manager that I have ever encountered - me. I don't need no stinkin' government involvement, and I certainly don't need a "custodian" to "manage" my account for me. >>
Getting there myself. . . hopefully all done by Jan 2010. Yeah, I know, missing out on years of tax-free compounding, the 'major power' the little guy has in the investment arsenal (in addition to due diligence). Mr. Gubbermint gives you a break (IRA rules), you owe him skin one day. Slavery is inescapable, just changes faces, that's all.
Do your best to avoid circular arguments, as it will help you reason better, because better reasoning is often a result of avoiding circular arguments.
Author: Lawrence Williams Posted: Thursday , 03 Sep 2009
China pushes silver and gold investment to the masses A report suggests that the Chinese government is pushing the general public into buying gold and silver bullion, which could have a dramatic effect on the markets.
The report notes that China’s Central Television, the main state-owned television company, has run a news programme letting the public know how easy it is to buy precious metals as an investment. On silver investment the announcer is quoted as saying " China has introduced its first ever investment opportunity for silver bullion. The bars are available in 500g, 1kg, 2kg and 5kg with a purity of 99.9%. Figures show that gold was fifty times more expensive than silver in 2007, but now that figure has reached over seventy times. Analysts say that silver has been undervalued in recent years. They add that the metal is the right investment for individual investors and could be a good way to cash in."
What appears to have happened in China is a total relaxation of strictures on holding precious metals by the individual with the government pushing gold and silver as an investment option, seemingly at every opportunity. This is a far cry from the situation only a few years ago where the distribution of gold and silver was strictly controlled. Now, the Thunder Road Report notes that every bank will sell gold and silver bullion bars in four different sizes to individuals and gold related investments are said to be soaring in popularity.
"Simply put, the Chinese government is trying to trigger a national gold craze…and it’s working. The Chinese public now has gold trading platforms on steroids…. …Also, for the first time in history, Chinese investors can even trade gold abroad (in London) with the swipe of a ‘Lucky Gold’ card. I can’t even get Bank of America to open a foreign currency account."
If the Chinese are indeed beginning to buy gold and silver as the quoted report suggests then this has to be a strong signal that prices are going to rise, and perhaps rise dramatically, in the relatively near future. We await comment from other China watchers for confirmation of the gold and silver buying spree, but with global gold production at best flat and probably in decline, even a small increase in Chinese buying could have a substantial impact on gold and silver prices.
This article was posted in 2 other threads, so I'll repeat what I wrote in another. This is fascinating news, and perhaps one of the events some analysts spoke of which might break the Cabal's death grip on the financial/currency markets as well as PMs. If 1.3 billion more investors are suddenly allowed to enter the market, imagine what it will do to PM prices and the dollar's stronghold it's held for over 60 years.
.....GOD
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
Lots of "food for thought" in this news letter and a lot of information like the COMEX can now settle your delievery in an ETF fund. Good read but you skip around on pages some.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released its commitment of traders report weekly data through August 18, which shows non-commercial (speculators, hedge funds) and commercial (Cos who are actually hedging input costs) net trading positions in various commodities... Non-commercial contracts: This week in agriculture contracts, speculators were net long 22,075 corn contracts on the CBOT (vs. net longs of 31,188 last week), net short 37,736 wheat contracts (vs. net shorts of 28,277 last week) and net long 57,516 soybean contracts (vs. net longs of 67,491 last week)... In energy, speculators were net short 169,846 natural gas contracts on the NYMEX (vs. net shorts of 176,818 last week) and net long 28,594 crude oil, light sweet contracts (vs. net longs of 39,532 last week)... In metals, speculators were net long 184,501 gold contracts on the COMEX (vs. net longs of 182,982 last week), speculators were net long 34,429 silver contracts (vs. net long of 29,130 last week) and speculators were net short 3,548 copper contracts on the COMEX (vs. net shorts of 1,244 last week)... Commercial contracts: This week in agriculture contracts, speculators were net long 66,532 corn contracts on the CBOT (vs. net longs of 60,598 last week), net long 57,345 wheat contracts (vs. net longs of 46,477 last week) and net short 26,493 soybean contracts (vs. net shorts of 37,090 last week)... In energy, speculators were net long 129,352 natural gas contracts on the NYMEX (vs. net longs of 132,490 last week) and net short 37,615 crude oil, light sweet contracts (vs. net shorts of 46,309 last week)... In metals, speculators were net short 216,708 gold contracts on the COMEX (vs. net shorts of 211,342 last week), speculators were net short 48,056 silver contracts (vs. net short of 42,718 last week) and speculators were net long 4,075 copper contracts on the COMEX (vs. net long of 1,307 last week).
interesting on the copper longs that's the biggest % change (long and short) of the bunch you quoted? >>
I posted so that we can actually have a time reference point with which to compare price movement. IE, we will see who was right and who was wrong in a few weeks. My contention is that contracts positions are not what they seem. In other words, just because a short position is opened, it doesnt mean the investor is bearish on prices. I believe the stats are manipulated or misread by newsletter writers. We will see in a few weeks.
Dollar futures over the past 2 weeks went from net long 8,577 to net long 1,462. A rather impressive swing. The last time they were on the net short side was May 12th.
Most are not aware that the BLS does 2 monthly surveys of unemployment. The household survey is rarely reported. This month it was particularly disheartening considering over 1,000,000 jobs were reported lost in July, this in sharp contrast to the more favorable 216,000 jobs lost per the often quoted employer survey.
The household survey is a much smaller statistical sampling with a larger potential error. In checking back over the past year there are a couple of instances where the HH survey had approx 1,000,000 jobs reported lost. It takes a much wider view of the work force than the employer survey. Some interesting facts in the 11 page report such as what types of workers are counted or discounted in various categories.
Lets see if a bunch of those "notorious" short gold contracts disappear in the next year.
From Briefing.Com....
Barrick Gold announces plan to eliminate gold hedges (39.31 -0.74) -Update-
Co announces that it has entered into an agreement with a syndicate of underwriters for a bought deal public offering for gross proceeds of approximately $3.0 bln representing 81.2 mln common shares of Barrick at a price of $36.95 per share. Barrick intends to use $1.9 bln of the net proceeds to eliminate all of its fixed priced (non-participating) gold contracts within the next 12 months and approximately $1.0 bln to eliminate a portion of its floating spot price (fully participating) gold contracts (the "Floating Contracts"). A $5.6 bln charge to earnings will be recorded in the third quarter as a result of a change in accounting treatment for the contracts.
Barrick plans to buy/mine the gold needed to eliminate those hedges over the next 12 months. That amount is on the order of what the Central Banks had been selling annually. I'm sure the GFMS won't count this in their annual survey of world gold demand. Once Barrick is removed from the list of major hedgers its stock should become a lot more attractive. The stock really hasn't done anything since peaking around 41 last November because of these large hedges. Obviously Barrick feels that higher gold prices are to come or they wouldn't be doing this. In fact their hedge book was purportedly as high as $12-$15 BILL a few years back but they have been chipping away at it.
That will leave Anglo-Gold Ashanti as the only large volume hedger left with a multi-billion dollar position.
Comments
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I am starting to get the uneasy feeling again. I, unfortunately, use the pilots I fly with as one of several barometers. I just had dinner with one barometer and he says his 401k is about the level it was 2 years ago. And he said it with a sigh of relief and asked what should he do now. I hear more and more talk of a rebound, cargo loads are increasing slighty and yet the reigns on us are still very tight (by the company.)
Many things have to fundamentally change for me to believe in any real recovery. I can see bubble generated recoveries by the likes of Government Sachs, but these are just covering up the gigantic atomic debt bomb about to explode.
R95
<< <i>There will be no genuine recovery until real job growth is achieved. You cannot have a jobless recovery. >>
Jobs will be plentiful when all the baby boomers retire. In fact, in 15 or so years we will have a labor shortage.
But, we really dont want everyone working as there is a segment of the population-while able bodied-in unfit for work.
A different situation is Japan, where for even the last 20 years unemployment has been in the low single digits, yet their economy has had no sustainable growth.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I didn't say that everyone should be working either, just that we need a growth in employment in order to have any hopes of economic recovery. I suppose in lieu of job growth, we could achieve a productivity improvement somehow, but those options are limited.
Box of 20
This is not a USA problem. Europe and Japan have even older populations and are in more of a pickle. Be prepared for "war" over which region will attract the most immigrants to pick up the slack. Wait till you see how the immigration debate progresses. Which region...USA, Europe, Japan, will be able to dangle the juciest carrot to attract new residents?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>The bulk of the boomers were boom from 1956 to 1962, so the oldest of this peak are only 53. They have at least another 12 years of gainful employment. 2027 the youngest boomers will be 65 and the boom will be largely out of the workforce. The effects of the declining workforce will be felt probably 7 years earlier.
This is not a USA problem. Europe and Japan have even older populations and are in more of a pickle. Be prepared for "war" over which region will attract the most immigrants to pick up the slack. Wait till you see how the immigration debate progresses. Which region...USA, Europe, Japan, will be able to dangle the juciest carrot to attract new residents? >>
The baby boom started in the spring of 1946 fueled by the returning
soldiers from the European theatre. It was in full swing by the end of
1947 and peaked in '54/ '55, I believe.
Social Security defines it as starting on 1-1-46. The first of these have
just begun retiring.
<< <i>The baby boom started in the spring of 1946 fueled by the returning soldiers from the European theatre. It was in full swing by the end of
1947 and peaked in '54/ '55, I believe.
Social Security defines it as starting on 1-1-46. The first of these have
just begun retiring.
>>
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Yes the boom did start in '46 but of course many have retired before the 62 1/2 year age required by SS. 1954 was the first year of < 4,000,000 births and this high rate continued through 1964, the final year of the "baby boom". The U.S. birthrate did not exceed 4,000,000 again until 1990!
1956 through 1962 were the peak years as cohodk noted. I also agree that around 2020 we will note large numbers leaving the U.S. workforce. I was born in Sept. of '64 and am at the very end of the "baby boom". Retirement before 2030 looks very unlikely for me unless I retire to the cemetary before then!
In the United States, approximately 79 million babies were born during the Baby Boom. Much of this cohort of nineteen years (1946-1964) grew up with Woodstock, the Vietnam War, and John F. Kennedy as president.
In 2006, the oldest Baby Boomers turned 60 years old, including the first two Baby Boomer presidents, Presidents William J. Clinton and George W. Bush, both born in the first year of the Baby Boom, 1946.
When social security was instituted, it was with benefits starting at age 65, when the life expectancy at the time was 62. Now that life expectancy is 77, why not increase the benefits age to 80? That certainly would put a big dent in the SS problem.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>And more trivia, although not so trivial....
When social security was instituted, it was with benefits starting at age 65, when the life expectancy at the time was 62. Now that life expectancy is 77, why not increase the benefits age to 80? That certainly would put a big dent in the SS problem. >>
Just a thought: Why don't we transition to IRA's exclusively? No government handouts and no employer defined benefit plans. Everyone to have their own private plan. Mandatory funding from your paycheck thru the gov't, just like FICA is now, but then forwarded to your registered custodian of choice. Then you can retire when you damned well please without a myriad of regulations governing your life choices.
For those in retirement or nearing it, we can make block grants to their custodial accounts. Would only be a couple of trillion $ from that mythical 'fund' the gov't draws on to pay benefits now. (
BTW, Chile did this years ago. The plan has about a 95% approval rating. You can't get 95% of peeps to agree on the weather outside right now so it must really work well.
Return my Social Security tax rate to 2%, with the income threshold at $3000, and you've got a deal.
Yeah, the registered custodian of choice for me is my stinkin' pocket!!!
Companies have been moving away from defined benefit plans for the past 5-10 years. But one problem with any IRA is finding a suitable (ie "guaranteed") vehicle that earns the employee a rate well above inflation/dollar devaluation and protects against deflation through all the years leading up to retirement. A large % of employees will probably end up losing money to inflation/deflationary forces. The game of stocks and bonds is now heavily tilted in the casino's favor. Unless you bet like you were in a casino odds are you won't come out ahead. Bush wanted to get his hands on the IRA's/401K's thinking that the govt could do it better while handing a ton of fees to the bankers/brokers. Considering what we've gone through the past 2 yrs, it's quite clear the govt can't do it better and that whatever glory years existed for stocks and bonds from 1982-2007 is now gone. That was built on infinite credit and pure fiat. Game, set and match to the bankers and power brokers. Going forward there is no simple answer that I can see to heavily tilt retirement funding towards the employee especially with all the financial and economic "levers" that typically work against the common worker.
China just announced to 6 foreign banks (probably JPM, GS, HSBC, BoA, Citi, WF) that they might not pay up on any otc default derivatives losses issued by those banks. This could get interesting. So far the FED/Treasury have been happy to dump money into the AIGs, Lehmans, Bear Stearns, etc to help pay off the winners with taxpayer money. China doesn't want to participate and would rather default basically claiming that the contracts were fraudulent from the start.
roadrunner
<< <i>400!
I am starting to get the uneasy feeling again. I, unfortunately, use the pilots I fly with as one of several barometers. I just had dinner with one barometer and he says his 401k is about the level it was 2 years ago. And he said it with a sigh of relief and asked what should he do now. I hear more and more talk of a rebound, cargo loads are increasing slighty and yet the reigns on us are still very tight (by the company.)
Many things have to fundamentally change for me to believe in any real recovery. I can see bubble generated recoveries by the likes of Government Sachs, but these are just covering up the gigantic atomic debt bomb about to explode.
R95 >>
the market increased dramatically so far this year, but i think the economy is still very weak
<< <i>A SHOCKING FALL >>
Like most say, 'it's not a matter of IF, but a matter of WHEN".
Just like the 'crash' last year when global stocks went south overnight, when Inflation is upon us, it will hit us quick and hard.
I just don't know if it will be here tomorrow or in 5 years from now.
But when it does arrive, Prices will jump overnight and keep increasing. PM's will of course be included in this group of fast increasing price jumps.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
<< <i>
<< <i>Just a thought: Why don't we transition to IRA's exclusively? No government handouts and no employer defined benefit plans. Everyone to have their own private plan. Mandatory funding from your paycheck thru the gov't, just like FICA is now, but then forwarded to your registered custodian of choice. Then you can retire when you damned well please without a myriad of regulations governing your life choices.
For those in retirement or nearing it, we can make block grants to their custodial accounts. Would only be a couple of trillion $ from that mythical 'fund' the gov't draws on to pay benefits now. (
BTW, Chile did this years ago. The plan has about a 95% approval rating. You can't get 95% of peeps to agree on the weather outside right now so it must really work well. >>
Dude stop making sense! This is Washington we are talking about. Common sense is not common in goverment.
In God We Trust.... all others pay in Gold and Silver!
The stock valuations (market cap) of Goldman, JP Morgan, Bank America and Wells Fargo are higher today than they were a year ago.
Are these banks really worth more today than before Lehman collapsed?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
-The commencement of a typical 15-20 yr commodity bull market starting in 2001
The latter stages of bull markets is where the big, fast money is made. As I mentioned earlier there will be a worker shortage in 10 years. Wages will invariably increase at that time. This is when we can expect inflation. It may take a minimum wage of $20-25/hour to get the marginal worket into the workforce.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
“The latter stages of bull markets is where the big, fast money is made. As I mentioned earlier there will be a worker shortage in 10 years. Wages will invariably increase at that time. This is when we can expect inflation. It may take a minimum wage of $20-25/hour to get the marginal worket into the workforce.”
Dave in a stable society I would agree with you, but there are some other factors to look at here.
First: The 78 million baby boomers are not going to be buying, boats, cars, big houses, second homes, full wardrobes, etc. the way they did in the past decade. So we won’t need a lot of that STUFF made.
Second: we already have 20 million illegals here, and it is easy enough to get in the country. Who really believes all these folks will go home?
Third: I believe we have had a true psychology change in the minds of the folks that have most of the money.
They are tired of getting screwed by Wall Street, and all the other, fast money salesman. I believe we are going to go back to a real savings, and pay as you go society. This may take a few years but it is on the way.
Fourth: As we go socialist, there will just be less real spend able income. Perhaps we will see your $25 per hour minimum wage but it will be inflated dollars that will buy no more than it does today.
Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) — PetroChina Co., China’s largest oil company, has bought its first stake in a Canadian oil sands project for C$1.9 billion ($1.7 billion) as the nation increases efforts to secure resources overseas.
PetroChina will take 60 percent stakes in Athabasca Oil Sands Corp.’s MacKay River and Dover oil-sands, according to a statement from the Canadian company yesterday. The investment may be PetroChina’s biggest acquisition inNorth America, spokesman Mao Zefeng said today.
China has spent more than $13 billion on overseas energy assets since December and PetroChina officials said last week the company plans further purchases. Oil sands resources are harder to exploit than conventional fields and the deal underscores China’s determination to snare reserves, said Gordon Kwan, an energy analyst at Mirae Asset Securities in Hong Kong.
Then that in fact is the inflation. Perhaps even the "hyper" inflation that many seek.
GS,
The population of the US is growing and is projected to do so for another 50 years. This all translates into increased demand for goods and services. Perhaps not at the same growth rate, but nonetheless, growth. Contrast this with Europe, especially Russia, and Japan that will see declining populations by 2030.
I dont expect the illegals to go home at all. In fact, I think the major industralized countries will be vying (aggressively) for them. Who's gonna take care off all those old farts? Who will maintain their households? If you wanted to immigrate to another country, would you choose the USA or England or Japan?
In Japan, the population is projected to be 30% less by 2050. What will they do will all those extra houses, hospitals, grocery stores? Who will man the factories if Japan is still to be a major exporting economy?
The concerns you bring up are the same as in 1934. Life as many knew it came to an abrupt end. The stock market crashed, real estate crashed, Govt spending exploded, tax receipts vanished. Many were concerned about all the Irish/English/Italians who came to America in the early part of the century. A generation later--the mid 50s-- the economy was roaring. History will repeat. Just as it is now.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
The concerns you bring up are the same as in 1934. Life as many knew it came to an abrupt end. The stock market crashed, real estate crashed, Govt spending exploded, tax receipts vanished. Many were concerned about all the Irish/English/Italians who came to America in the early part of the century. A generation later--the mid 50s-- the economy was roaring. History will repeat. Just as it is now. >>
cohodk, I agree with you here, but you seem to have left out an important part of the cycle. Something happened shortly after 1934...
...1939.
The world war and the societal upheaval allowed the immigrants to assimilate into American society and the resulting military industrial complex put the USA at the top of the world order.
History repeats itself, but it is never the same twice. Any repeating of the last centuries cycles would be very bad all around.
Random Collector
www.marksmedals.com
<< <i>GOLD UP $22.00 TODAY!!!! I tried to buy some last week, "seller" would not let go of those Maple Leafs. I'll be buying next week. Not afraid to buy at this time. It's a hedge against inflation. >>
//// And to think! I was trying to sell 50% of my gold 2 days ago but could find no buyers. I guess I was lucky! I will be holding on longer I guess.
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins
All in all my gold purchases this year are still ahead of the oil stocks I bought at the first of the year.
In addition the ETF's are crumbling due to the manipulation of the new government rules. I see that Barclay's closed their double oil ETF because of the new rules.
All of the great empires ended in a flurry of socialistic/communistic behavior so why should we be different?
Oh, I heard on the talk shows today that the President is going to give lectures to school age kids starting on the 8th of September. He is going to instruct them how they can help the President push his agenda, does that sound familiar?
These recent rumblings about Chinese Government State-Owned Enterprises ("SOEs") reserving the right to terminate certain derivative contracts could be the story of the year. I say "could" because the MOPErs are certain to do everything in their power to keep it from the public.
It’s too early to comment on exactly what is taking place. The news accounts are all over the map. However, I can tell you based on 25 years’ professional experience that you are right on the money in saying there are many fraud-based legal arguments that potentially give parties such as the SOEs the legal right to walk away from these derivative contracts.
The MOPErs have been quick to vilify the Chinese Government even though it is clear they do not know the facts and have not considered the legal issues. On Monday night after comments were first posted here on JSMineset about this story, I searched the web for additional information. I came across a Reuters article titled "Banks uneasy over report China state companies assert right to default of derivatives trades." That article contained the following statements:
(1) "It’s a handful of companies who are being encouraged by regulators to renegotiate," said a second banking source. It’s outrageous, but it’s China, so everyone is treading very carefully."
(2) "For banks that are hoping to sell more derivatives hedges in China, the world’s fastest-expanding major economy and top commodities consumer, the danger goes beyond the immediate risk to existing contracts to the longer-term precedent that suggests Chinese companies can simply renege on deals when they like."
(3) "Beijing-based derivatives lawyers said the so-called "legal letter" has no legal standing – [the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission] as a shareholder has no business relationship with international banks. "It’s like the father suddenly told the creditors of his debt-ridden son that his son won’t pay any of his debt," said a lawyer from the derivatives risks committee of the Beijing Lawyers Association."
These are incendiary comments that we can be assured are being read by the Chinese government. As you have stated many times in the past, it’s a very bad idea to go around hurling insults at the banker you have come to rely upon most.
Even more to the point, there would be nothing "outrageous" about the Chinese government giving notice to the sellers of these derivative contracts that it believes it has legal grounds to void the contracts.
More recent followers of this site may not know that Jim has been calling out these derivative contracts as being inherently fraudulent for at least a decade. Jim has focused on the fact that the sellers knew that even under the slightest pressure (meaning events not playing out the way the sellers expected them to) the sellers knew they wouldn’t be able to hold up their end of the bargain.
In my view "derivatives" is a fancy word for bets. The financial companies that sell them are basically bookies. These bookies, instead of holding onto the bets and/or laying them off to make sure the winners get paid, book them as profits and pay them out to themselves in executive bonuses. If they start losing the bets the company goes up in smoke. This is the AIG situation.
Another illegal aspect of these contracts is that they were in many cases developed specifically to allow risky investments by customers who by law should not be able to take on risky investments. These customers include treasurers for companies, states and municipalities, money market fund managers and pension fund fiduciaries. This is a subject covered at length by Frank Partnoy in his book, Fiasco, about his experiences selling derivatives on Wall Street between 1993 and 1995.
The financial companies make over-the-top commissions selling these contracts and their management earn bonuses based on short-term profits. Therefore, they have an enormous incentive to mislead customers with respect to the risks the customers are taking on.
As Jim and many other contributors to this site have stated in the past, what the Chinese Government appears to be doing now is exactly what the US Government should have done as soon as the derivatives mess started to blow up. This approach would have had the best chance of preserving the banking system and avoiding hardships to the general public. Instead, the Fed and Treasury adopted an exclusive strategy of funneling public money to the entities that created the mess in the first place.
The Chinese Government’s action therefore has the potential to expose how massively Western governments mishandled the crisis and rewarded the people who should better have been criminally prosecuted. Candidly, I won’t be holding my breath waiting for that to happen. So far, the general public has not been able to connect the dots on any of this.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out .....Richard B
roadrunner
Lets all just work until we die, why not?
MATTHEW SALTMARSH
Published: September 2, 2009
Ned and Barbara Petrucci lost about 35 percent of their life savings in the stock market and have made only a little of it back in recent months.
To the long list of reasons American companies aren’t hiring — business losses, tight credit, consumer retrenchment — add the fact that many of their older workers are unable, or afraid, to retire.
In other parts of the developed world, people are retiring as planned, because of relatively flush state and corporate pensions that await them. But here in the United States, financial security in old age rests increasingly on private savings, which have taken a beating in the last year.
Prospective retirees are clinging to their jobs despite some cherished life plans.
As a result, companies are not only reluctant to create new jobs, but have fewer job openings to fill from attrition. For the 14 million Americans looking for work — a number expected to rise in Friday’s jobs report for August — this lack of turnover has made a tough job market even tougher.
Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund, which in July outlined plans to issue bonds to member countries, signed an agreement with China under which the Asian nation would buy as much as $50 billion of the notes.
The note-purchase agreement is the first of its kind, the Washington-based IMF said yesterday in an e-mailed statement. It enables China to take part in a $500 billion increase in the lender’s resources to which the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations agreed in April.
“The agreement offers China a safe investment instrument,” the IMF said. “It will also boost the fund’s capacity to help its membership -- particularly the developing and emerging market countries -- weather the global financial crisis, and facilitate an early recovery of the global economy.”
The notes will be denominated in Special Drawing Rights, or SDRs, the unit of account that China has said should have a greater role in the global economy over time to reduce the U.S. dollar’s dominance.
I don't even have an IRA or a 401K anymore. My retirement savings are totally private and are only subject to government income tax provisions. I no longer worry about a myriad of regulations governing my life choices. I am fully vested in my own 100% secret and confidential retirement plan - owned, operated and managed by the very best and most trusted money manager that I have ever encountered - me. I don't need no stinkin' government involvement, and I certainly don't need a "custodian" to "manage" my account for me.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Just a thought: Why don't we transition to IRA's exclusively? No government handouts and no employer defined benefit plans. Everyone to have their own private plan. Mandatory funding from your paycheck thru the gov't, just like FICA is now, but then forwarded to your registered custodian of choice. Then you can retire when you damned well please without a myriad of regulations governing your life choices.
I don't even have an IRA or a 401K anymore. My retirement savings are totally private and are only subject to government income tax provisions. I no longer worry about a myriad of regulations governing my life choices. I am fully vested in my own 100% secret and confidential retirement plan - owned, operated and managed by the very best and most trusted money manager that I have ever encountered - me. I don't need no stinkin' government involvement, and I certainly don't need a "custodian" to "manage" my account for me.
Yogi Berra
ME also.
Dumped my IRA years ago and just paid the tax. The less these socialist know about my stuff the harder it will be to pry it loose.
<< <i>...
I don't even have an IRA or a 401K anymore. My retirement savings are totally private and are only subject to government income tax provisions. I no longer worry about a myriad of regulations governing my life choices. I am fully vested in my own 100% secret and confidential retirement plan - owned, operated and managed by the very best and most trusted money manager that I have ever encountered - me. I don't need no stinkin' government involvement, and I certainly don't need a "custodian" to "manage" my account for me.
Getting there myself. . . hopefully all done by Jan 2010. Yeah, I know, missing out on years of tax-free compounding, the 'major power' the little guy has in the investment arsenal (in addition to due diligence). Mr. Gubbermint gives you a break (IRA rules), you owe him skin one day. Slavery is inescapable, just changes faces, that's all.
Posted: Thursday , 03 Sep 2009
China pushes silver and gold investment to the masses
A report suggests that the Chinese government is pushing the general public
into buying gold and silver bullion, which could have a dramatic effect on
the markets.
The report notes that China’s Central Television, the main state-owned
television company, has run a news programme letting the public know how
easy it is to buy precious metals as an investment. On silver investment
the announcer is quoted as saying " China has introduced its first ever
investment opportunity for silver bullion. The bars are available in 500g,
1kg, 2kg and 5kg with a purity of 99.9%. Figures show that gold was fifty
times more expensive than silver in 2007, but now that figure has reached
over seventy times. Analysts say that silver has been undervalued in recent
years. They add that the metal is the right investment for individual
investors and could be a good way to cash in."
What appears to have happened in China is a total relaxation of strictures
on holding precious metals by the individual with the government pushing
gold and silver as an investment option, seemingly at every opportunity.
This is a far cry from the situation only a few years ago where the
distribution of gold and silver was strictly controlled. Now, the Thunder
Road Report notes that every bank will sell gold and silver bullion bars in
four different sizes to individuals and gold related investments are said to
be soaring in popularity.
"Simply put, the Chinese government is trying to trigger a national gold
craze…and it’s working. The Chinese public now has gold trading platforms on
steroids…. …Also, for the first time in history, Chinese investors can even
trade gold abroad (in London) with the swipe of a ‘Lucky Gold’ card. I can’t
even get Bank of America to open a foreign currency account."
If the Chinese are indeed beginning to buy gold and silver as the quoted
report suggests then this has to be a strong signal that prices are going to
rise, and perhaps rise dramatically, in the relatively near future. We
await comment from other China watchers for confirmation of the gold and
silver buying spree, but with global gold production at best flat and
probably in decline, even a small increase in Chinese buying could have a
substantial impact on gold and silver prices.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
The Next Major Rise has begun!
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released its commitment of traders report weekly data through August 18, which shows non-commercial (speculators, hedge funds) and commercial (Cos who are actually hedging input costs) net trading positions in various commodities... Non-commercial contracts: This week in agriculture contracts, speculators were net long 22,075 corn contracts on the CBOT (vs. net longs of 31,188 last week), net short 37,736 wheat contracts (vs. net shorts of 28,277 last week) and net long 57,516 soybean contracts (vs. net longs of 67,491 last week)... In energy, speculators were net short 169,846 natural gas contracts on the NYMEX (vs. net shorts of 176,818 last week) and net long 28,594 crude oil, light sweet contracts (vs. net longs of 39,532 last week)... In metals, speculators were net long 184,501 gold contracts on the COMEX (vs. net longs of 182,982 last week), speculators were net long 34,429 silver contracts (vs. net long of 29,130 last week) and speculators were net short 3,548 copper contracts on the COMEX (vs. net shorts of 1,244 last week)... Commercial contracts: This week in agriculture contracts, speculators were net long 66,532 corn contracts on the CBOT (vs. net longs of 60,598 last week), net long 57,345 wheat contracts (vs. net longs of 46,477 last week) and net short 26,493 soybean contracts (vs. net shorts of 37,090 last week)... In energy, speculators were net long 129,352 natural gas contracts on the NYMEX (vs. net longs of 132,490 last week) and net short 37,615 crude oil, light sweet contracts (vs. net shorts of 46,309 last week)... In metals, speculators were net short 216,708 gold contracts on the COMEX (vs. net shorts of 211,342 last week), speculators were net short 48,056 silver contracts (vs. net short of 42,718 last week) and speculators were net long 4,075 copper contracts on the COMEX (vs. net long of 1,307 last week).
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
interesting on the copper longs that's the biggest % change (long and short) of the bunch you quoted?
<< <i>cohodk,
interesting on the copper longs that's the biggest % change (long and short) of the bunch you quoted? >>
I posted so that we can actually have a time reference point with which to compare price movement. IE, we will see who was right and who was wrong in a few weeks. My contention is that contracts positions are not what they seem. In other words, just because a short position is opened, it doesnt mean the investor is bearish on prices. I believe the stats are manipulated or misread by newsletter writers. We will see in a few weeks.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
IMF as lender of last resort to the world?
IMF making money out of thin air in late August by creating $250 BILL. It's one way around government central banks.
BLS household unemployment survey - CPS
Most are not aware that the BLS does 2 monthly surveys of unemployment. The household survey is rarely reported. This month it was particularly disheartening considering over 1,000,000 jobs were reported lost in July, this in sharp contrast to the more favorable 216,000 jobs lost per the often quoted employer survey.
The household survey is a much smaller statistical sampling with a larger potential error. In checking back over the past year there are a couple of instances where the HH survey had approx 1,000,000 jobs reported lost. It takes a much wider view of the work force than the employer survey. Some interesting facts in the 11 page report such as what types of workers are counted or discounted in various categories.
roadrunner
Fred, Las Vegas, NV
From Briefing.Com....
Barrick Gold announces plan to eliminate gold hedges (39.31 -0.74) -Update-
Co announces that it has entered into an agreement with a syndicate of underwriters for a bought deal public offering for gross proceeds of approximately $3.0 bln representing 81.2 mln common shares of Barrick at a price of $36.95 per share. Barrick intends to use $1.9 bln of the net proceeds to eliminate all of its fixed priced (non-participating) gold contracts within the next 12 months and approximately $1.0 bln to eliminate a portion of its floating spot price (fully participating) gold contracts (the "Floating Contracts"). A $5.6 bln charge to earnings will be recorded in the third quarter as a result of a change in accounting treatment for the contracts.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
That will leave Anglo-Gold Ashanti as the only large volume hedger left with a multi-billion dollar position.
roadrunner
Obviously Barrick feels that higher gold prices are to come or they wouldn't be doing this.
Obviously Barrick feels that higher gold prices are to come or they wouldn't be doing this.
I knew it would happen.