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GOLD AND SILVER, ECONOMIC NEWS, COINS, 2009 forward
GOLDSAINT
Posts: 2,148 ✭
Well lets see if perhaps the powers that be just thought the last thread was to long.
Who knows perhaps it developed tech problems?
It still seems better to have just one thread rather than dozens each week?
Here is a link to the old thread with 10,828 posts
http://forums.collectors.com/messageview.cfm?catid=42&threadid=344922
Who knows perhaps it developed tech problems?
It still seems better to have just one thread rather than dozens each week?
Here is a link to the old thread with 10,828 posts
http://forums.collectors.com/messageview.cfm?catid=42&threadid=344922
0
Comments
<< <i>Ok, let's do it again. Maybe SM can shed some light on this for us. >>
He posted this on the "Why is it locked" Thread:
"Don't point the finger at me guys. I asked for clarification as I had been asked as to why I locked the thread. For once, I'm innocent!!. It appears that thread went too political with the ongoing discussion of illegal immigration etc. and the powers did not appreciate the path the thread was taking. We can discuss the whys ad infinitum, but it's the way it is. Suck it up and let's start a new one, with a little self-restraint in regard to the politico front. "
So we just need to be a bit more careful this time.
Thanks for starting up part two GoldSaint!
1) We need heavy inflation to pay for all the things our government promised. There is no way .gov defaults on social security, welfare, bailouts. There is no way municipalities default on pension obligations. The unions are just too powerful. This inflation will weaken the dollar, gold should protect against this.
2) As a result of #1, there will be means testing for all the government handouts. If you were responsible enough to save and invest it will be taken from you in the form of taxation and you will be denied the handouts given to the deadbeats because you are "rich". You won't get housing bailouts, student loan forgiveness, social security, obama care, free college tuition for your kids, etc. It will be good to own physical gold in this environment to fly below the radar and avoid means testing. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. There WILL be socialism. I am done being angry about it, I am going to benefit from it as much as I can.
3) Alternatively, instead of #2 and #3 happening we get massive deflation and all assets including gold plummet in value. Real estate will essentially be worthless due to illiquidity. Gold will be cheap measured in dollars that nobody has but will still retain value, either here or elsewhere in the world. I think and hope this scenario has a low probability because this is the Mad Max scenario where society and the government breaks down. I think TPTB are trying desperately to avoid this broad based deflation as it ruins everyone, including themselves.
Goldsaint, you may want to recheck your brackets on the link in the first post. Would be nice to have this available on the top of each page going forward.
TPTB have spoken. We all need to tighten up on touchier political and social issues that really don't have a bearing on PM's, coins, etc. And the way things have been heading, it will only become more difficult as they will weave themselves into our everyday lives.
Now with a fresh thread, gold's next attempt at $1000 is in fresher hands
HUI gold miners index - 9 year Hurst/Gann cycles bottoming this winter
An interesting chart which closely parallels pog today at the first leg of this bull market back in 2003-2004. This timing would call for a bottom around December 2009 and then the start of leg #1 of major wave #3. This would mean that the correction from March 2008 is still playing out and we are in a C leg to end by Nov/Dec. This would fit many things neatly together.
roadrunner
Thank you so much for restarting this thread GOLDSAINT.
Let's keep it off politics and on PM, the economy, rare coins and future predictions.
It was a great run to 10,000. Now we can start another marathon.
Yeah, that's what they all say!
Kudos to GOLDSAINT on such an interesting and informative thread.
I knew it would happen.
+1
Ray
And if you can't afford gold. buy silver or any tradeable comodity.
"And if you can't afford gold. buy silver or any tradeable comodity. "
Yeah, I'm thinkin' that even cowrie shells might do some good for ya.
Proud recipient of two "You Suck" awards
I noticed a lot of articles today coming out of the BRIC meetings, that really sounds more like a lot of saber rattling, and probably in the end means nothing.
Dollar falls on reserve status fears.
China sells US Bonds to Show Concern
Brazil: Time for a new world order
And yes, Drudge is a jumping off point for me a lot!
Now this one has some potential to be more of a problem, after we got called out for "Buy American."
China orders "Buy China" in stimulus plan
Personally, I have a feeling inflation will be allowed to get just to the point where it almost gets out of control, to make paying down our debts that much easier. I think these other countries see the writing on the wall, but they have no way to unwind from the US debt they are already holding.
In the end, this can be nothing but positive to the price of PM's. Whether it ends up positive in other areas, depends on how we are prepared.
<< <i>i will chill, i know i have been guilty. it is hard to differentiate between politics/economy and PM, yet this is NOT a political policy forum and i have crossed the line more than once. >>
Yeah, me to. Unfortunately politcal decisions impact the economy which in turn impact the price movement of PM's.
I hope I can still post charts.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Well lets see if perhaps the powers that be just thought the last thread was to long.
Who knows perhaps it developed tech problems?
It still seems better to have just one thread rather than dozens each week?
Here is a link to the old thread with 10,828 posts
http://forums.collectors.com/messageview.cfm?catid=42&threadid=344922 >>
Mebbe the stealth posts were bogging down the server.
Lets wish this thread many happy returns and hope it's half as good as the last.
If it is then it might spawn yet another forum.
Please, please fix the title of this thread, so we don't have to look at this typo for the next 5 years
A nice piece by JW on China's failed deals to aquire hunks of Rio Tinto and other companies. He notes that if they can't get their new currency (ie natural resources) going, they can also do it by buying into hedge fund positions.
What I find more interesting in JW's article is the gold chart pattern still being constructed. Basically it's a series of bowl/cup patterns that we have discussed here before...but not altogether. The larger bowl commences back in March 2008 and the smaller bowl attached right behind it is from Feb 2009. And we've actually begun a 3rd bowl pattern since June 3rd smaller than the prevous two. Together the 3 bowls form an ascending triangle of sorts with the top capped at around $1000 resistance. The bowls are shrinking as they are pushed upwards towards the resistance line. What do you call a cup n'handle with another loop? Brass knuckles? Something's gotta give sooner rather than later. If someone gave you $100 to bet on whether this multi-bowl pattern breaks up or down, which way would you bet?
10 year log chart of gold
The 10 yr semi-log chart of gold shows a basic linear trend since the move began. The author also links copies of the dot.com log charts from the 1990's. They are very similar except that the gold chart has not advanced nearly as far as the dot.coms did. In fact the mid-1998 dot.com correction of 33% is nearly identical to the 33% hit that gold took in July-Oct 2008. The charts are eerily similar. It took almost 2 additional years for the dot.com bubble to finish its final explosive legs in early 2000. There is more to come for gold. When one is looking to price moves in commodities, the log charts are needed as it's a matter of percentage changes rather than absolute changes. In rising or falling markets this will provide larger targets than on non-log charts.
The doubting $1000+ Thomases need to consider both of the above charts.
roadrunner
Me thinks you will know in about a week.
The 10 yr semi-log chart of gold shows a basic linear trend since the move began
Thats why I dont like log charts. They all look like linear.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The pyramids in this article show assets from real estate to gold. I was a little surprised on how far down diamonds and gem stones were. I wonder where numismatic coins would show up on the list? Probably not much higher than diamonds.
Ron Rosen's gold turning points for June/July
Rosen's noting of the timing and price of each of the lows and peaks of the past 64 weeks are quite striking in symmetry and strength. Every low point during the 2008 drop has been exceeded by the high point since November 2008. He feels the chances of an immediate breakout are excellent, culminating in an all-time high in July regardless of what the banks do from here. His analysis fits well with Jim Willie's successive bowls and JS calling for a big move following the 3rd week of June. It's really all the same thing: IH&S, cup n'handles, etc. The pulling force for all this is Rosen's long term high due in 2009. A good read.
roadrunner
Obama Administration pushes IMF gold sales through House by tieing it to security bill
The Obama administration has pushed a bill through the U.S. House of Representatives approving $106 billion in supplemental funding, primarily for the Iraq and Afghanistan 'security' efforts, but attached to it was also an expanded credit facility for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of a massive $108 billion which included an agreement to allow U.S,. members of the IMF Board to agree the proposed $13 billion sale of 400 tons of IMF gold to shore up its finances.
In theory the US. approval of the IMF gold sale, which still has to pass through the U.S. Senate would be the final hurdle in the gold sale actually going ahead. But despite this there was virtually little or no impact on the gold market. In part this may be because of scant publicity being given to this part of the funding approval, but also in that firstly the gold market has largely discounted the IMF gold sale anyway, and secondly in that the IMF has said it will dispose of its gold in an orderly manner through a system such as the Central Bank Gold Agreement which limits sales volumes in a given year.
However the current CBGA runs out in September and there has been no announcement yet of a renewal beyond that date. Given Central Bank gold sales under the CBGA appear to have dropped sharply over the past year it may be felt there is no longer a necessity for a new Agreement. Indeed indications are that some major Central Banks, notably the Russian and Chinese ones, as well as some Middle Eastern banks, are likely to increase gold holdings in part in an attempt to diversify reserve dependence away from the U.S. dollar given the mixed views on the greenback's future path due to the huge amounts of money being pumped into the U.S. Economy to try to stave off recession - or even depression.
I have a very strict gun control policy: if there's a gun around, I want to be in control of it - Clint Eastwood
<< <i>Asset liquidity pyramid
The pyramids in this article show assets from real estate to gold. I was a little surprised on how far down diamonds and gem stones were. I wonder where numismatic coins would show up on the list? Probably not much higher than diamonds.
roadrunner >>
diamonds and gemstones are probably harder to evaluate and therefore are less liquid and it has a more of a "micro" extrinsic value, much like the small business.
the items at the bottom have a more "macro" intrinsic value.
coins are closer to the top than the bottom, would be my guess.
could not stay away
<< <i>Obama Administration pushes IMF gold sales through House by tieing it to security bill
The Obama administration has pushed a bill through the U.S. House of Representatives approving $106 billion in supplemental funding, primarily for the Iraq and Afghanistan 'security' efforts, but attached to it was also an expanded credit facility for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of a massive $108 billion which included an agreement to allow U.S,. members of the IMF Board to agree the proposed $13 billion sale of 400 tons of IMF gold to shore up its finances.
>>
Wow, they are going to threaten to sell the same 403 tons of IMF gold again. They do this every couple of months for the last few years. $13 billion may have helped 10 years ago but it is a joke now. The U.S. is going to sell $165 billion in T-bills next week alone. $13 bilion is pocket change and the Chinese should buy all the gold and skip buying T-bills for less than one freakin day.
Cash for clunkers bill on the way to the President for signature:
Proponents are hoping for a busy autumn in vehicle sales. The first checks could start arriving by Sept. 1, with the program's end set for Sept. 30.
US lawmakers set aside $1 billion for the trade-in checks, or enough to move 250,000 new vehicles.
Both domestic and foreign vehicles are eligible for the trade-in checks, but clunkers older than 25 years aren't eligible.
The only catch to getting the top trade-in perk of $4,500 is that the new car chosen by a buyer must show an improvement of 10 miles per gallon or better over the vehicle being traded in.
For vehicles showing improvement between 4 miles per gallon and 10 miles per gallon, the trade-in perk is $3,500. Light trucks with a 2 miles-per-gallon improvement would also get the $3,500 perk, as would heavy trucks showing a 1 mile-per-gallon improvement.
New passenger cars purchased with the vouchers must get a minimum of 22 miles per gallon in combined city and highway driving.
The minimum mileage for light trucks is 18 miles per gallon, and 15 miles per gallon for larger light trucks.
I may just have to investigate this further since I'm currently operating with a pair of 11-12 year old cars, one at 215,000 miles that would really have close to no trade in value. I'm assuming one can still negotiate a good deal with the dealer and then get the govt's rebate on top of that.
roadrunner
In theory, yes... you should still be able to negotiate the best deal and then get the rebate on top of that. However, from how things have gone in the past, I would venture that the dealers finding out that you will be eligible for that rebate, will price their vehicles accordingly.....
..... so they will be able to pocket a decent portion of that rebate. In other words, I'll bet they do not bargain quite as much as they would otherwise.... especially since they know the program is of very short duration of only 1 month. You will have to use it, or lose it, the dealers will know it, and will keep their vehicles prices higher. Also, there will be many, many others expecting to capture that rebate also.... thus more the reason the dealers will not have to 'bargain' nearly as much.
I expect that there will be very little factory rebates during the month of the govnmt's rebate.
If the car dealers will bargain.... and the car companies offer rebates.... on top of the governments rebate.... then it is a great time to buy. But for some reason I am a little skeptical.
Fwiw I've never bought a new car so maybe this whole discussion is just a pipe dream. Typically I've bought low mileage used cars that were 2-5 years old. But this new incentive might be enough to get me in the door of a new car dealership. If not, nothing lost. The better value is still probably a mint used vehicle where the orig buyer has already taken the first 75% in depreciation. My 215,000 1997 Lincoln was purchased that way for <25% of orig sticker in 2001 with 29,000 miles. It's been the most trouble free car I've ever owned. Even with a $4500 rebate, the depreciation on a new car is potentially 50% in the first 2 years.
roadrunner
Impossible. Everyone knows American made cars are garbage.
I buy my cars the same way. My last car purchase was a 2005 Grand Caravan for my wife. It was a fleet vehicle, was 6 months old and had 28,000 miles and was 70% of the cost of a new one.
I was thinking of buying a junker SUV for $500 and using it for the rebate.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
http://www.theonion.com/content/video/us_to_trade_gold_reserves_for
Forum AdministratorPSA & PSA/DNA ForumModerator@collectors.com | p 800.325.1121 | PSAcard.com
but to qualify registered for at least 120 days to present.
BTW very funny video above
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
I was thinking of buying a junker SUV for $500 and using it for the rebate. >>
I was listening to our local news today, and supposedly, you will have had to have owned the vehicle for a year to participate.
Funny video SM1!
Now, if the inflation index included the additional taxes and fees we get scammed for then that would be a different story but there is no inflation and will not be any either! So those hyper inflation groupies...ain't gonna happen in the U.S.
As soon as SOMETHING starts inflating...THEY remove that item from the OFFICIAL INDEX. It works brilliantly. Works for the DJ30 too........................but just inversely
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Official Boom/bust cycle categories
tulips
real estate
stock market
dollar.
Couple the above with $400 TRILL in interest rate swaps to ensure interest rates remained low the past 10 years as well as $100's of billions of dollars in short gold/silver derivatives to keep the PM's semi-managed and you pretty much have the recipe for a perfect facade of chronic low inflation. Inflation was whipped in the 70's (W-I-N) with 20% interest rates. We were able to whip it this time with only 0.25% interest rates....and $1,144 TRILLION in derivatives.
roadrunner
It's a budget item written with disappearing ink. Works like a charm!
I knew it would happen.
“It is the month of August, on the shores of the Black Sea . It is raining, and the little town looks totally deserted. It is tough times, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit. “Suddenly, a rich tourist comes to town. “He enters the only hotel, lays a 100-euro note on the reception counter, and goes to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one. “The hotel proprietor takes the 100-euro note and runs to pay his debt to the butcher.“The butcher takes the 100-euro note and runs to pay what he owes the pig farmer. The pig farmer takes the 100-euro note and runs to pay his debt to his supplier of feed and fuel. “The supplier of feed and fuel takes the 100-euro note and runs to pay his debt to the town's prostitute that, in these hard times, proffered her ‘services’ on credit.
“The prostitute take the 100-euro note and runs to the hotel to pay for the rooms she rented when she brought her clients there. “The hotel proprietor then lays the 100-euro note back on the counter so that the rich tourist will not suspect anything. “At that moment, the rich tourist comes down after inspecting the rooms, takes the 100-euro note off the desk, tucks it back into his wallet, and explains that he did not like any of the rooms. He then leaves town.
“No one earned a penny. However, the whole town is now without debt and looks to the future with great optimism.
roadrunner
<< <i>This was offered up on Ackerman's website as one possible way to pay off debts:
“It is the month of August, on the shores of the Black Sea . It is raining, and the little town looks totally deserted. It is tough times, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit. “Suddenly, a rich tourist comes to town. “He enters the only hotel, lays a 100-euro note on the reception counter, and goes to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one. “The hotel proprietor takes the 100-euro note and runs to pay his debt to the butcher.“The butcher takes the 100-euro note and runs to pay what he owes the pig farmer. The pig farmer takes the 100-euro note and runs to pay his debt to his supplier of feed and fuel. “The supplier of feed and fuel takes the 100-euro note and runs to pay his debt to the town's prostitute that, in these hard times, proffered her ‘services’ on credit.
“The prostitute take the 100-euro note and runs to the hotel to pay for the rooms she rented when she brought her clients there. “The hotel proprietor then lays the 100-euro note back on the counter so that the rich tourist will not suspect anything. “At that moment, the rich tourist comes down after inspecting the rooms, takes the 100-euro note off the desk, tucks it back into his wallet, and explains that he did not like any of the rooms. He then leaves town.
“No one earned a penny. However, the whole town is now without debt and looks to the future with great optimism.
roadrunner >>
I guess the lesson is, make sure you owe someone something before the big fix is in....
Might I suggest that the entry price for silver is not nearly as important as it is to get a proper proportion of your assets into physical silver?
Who here thinks that the financial system is going to remain glued together, and for how long? How much warning do you think we'll have in order to act when the glue comes apart?
I don't see the value in trading for a buck or two now. (And besides, it's all taxable anyhow.) Asset allocation. Asset allocation. Asset allocation.
I knew it would happen.
2-year Bond Auction Results: High Yield- 1.15% , 1.20% expected; Bid/Cover 3.19x (5 auction avg 2.70x); Indirect Bidder- 68.7% (avg 31%)
The yield was lower than expected meaning investors are willing to accept less. The auction was $3.19 offered to buy for every $1 of debt available--an 18% increase and foreigners wanted to buy more than 2x the average. US debt is in demand.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
During the most recent run up in gold, it closely mirrored the inverse of the 20 year bond. So it will be interesting to see if gold can fight the headwind of some yr lower mid-term bond yields this week.
roadrunner
<< <i>This was offered up on Ackerman's website as one possible way to pay off debts:
“It is the month of August, on the shores of the Black Sea . It is raining, and the little town looks totally deserted. It is tough times, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit. “Suddenly, a rich tourist comes to town. “He enters the only hotel, lays a 100-euro note on the reception counter, and goes to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one. “The hotel proprietor takes the 100-euro note and runs to pay his debt to the butcher.“The butcher takes the 100-euro note and runs to pay what he owes the pig farmer. The pig farmer takes the 100-euro note and runs to pay his debt to his supplier of feed and fuel. “The supplier of feed and fuel takes the 100-euro note and runs to pay his debt to the town's prostitute that, in these hard times, proffered her ‘services’ on credit.
“The prostitute take the 100-euro note and runs to the hotel to pay for the rooms she rented when she brought her clients there. “The hotel proprietor then lays the 100-euro note back on the counter so that the rich tourist will not suspect anything. “At that moment, the rich tourist comes down after inspecting the rooms, takes the 100-euro note off the desk, tucks it back into his wallet, and explains that he did not like any of the rooms. He then leaves town.
“No one earned a penny. However, the whole town is now without debt and looks to the future with great optimism.
roadrunner >>
Cute, but someone lost $100 in your story. Can you see who?
Random Collector
www.marksmedals.com
Box of 20
I ain't buying that AT ALL. Where'd you get that PS103? or BRANDEIS?
If your substitution theory is the reason for no inflation or distorted low inflation figgers then you need to go to back to school.
Butter is butter and margarine is margarine and if you substitute soy for steak to distort the number...it's called FOOLING AROUND.
QUALITY OF LIFE ......................
1. Quality if life,..... above subsistence, but minimal
in many respects.
2. Debt load............Heavy and doubtful of repayment
3. American Dream...Is turning into at best a harsh reality.
At worst a nightmare.
4.Our children will live better then the parents....Grown children
are returning home or are dependent on assistance from parents
to keep the afloat.
5. Store PMs.....It is hard to store PMs when you are having trouble
keeping your home out of forclosure and buying food and gas.
6. Distribute your investments.....Have merely spead loses over more areas.
7. Hope......A greatly diminished aspect of life.
8. Do we live better then the rest of the world.....Yes, but the standard of living
is diminishing for Americans.
9. New technology will replace industrial jobs lost to world tgrade and outsourcing.
Perhaps, but exactly how many decades will it take before this may happen. How do
people survive for those long decades.
Camelot
<< <i>
<< <i>This was offered up on Ackerman's website as one possible way to pay off debts:
“It is the month of August, on the shores of the Black Sea . It is raining, and the little town looks totally deserted. It is tough times, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit. “Suddenly, a rich tourist comes to town. “He enters the only hotel, lays a 100-euro note on the reception counter, and goes to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one. “The hotel proprietor takes the 100-euro note and runs to pay his debt to the butcher.“The butcher takes the 100-euro note and runs to pay what he owes the pig farmer. The pig farmer takes the 100-euro note and runs to pay his debt to his supplier of feed and fuel. “The supplier of feed and fuel takes the 100-euro note and runs to pay his debt to the town's prostitute that, in these hard times, proffered her ‘services’ on credit.
“The prostitute take the 100-euro note and runs to the hotel to pay for the rooms she rented when she brought her clients there. “The hotel proprietor then lays the 100-euro note back on the counter so that the rich tourist will not suspect anything. “At that moment, the rich tourist comes down after inspecting the rooms, takes the 100-euro note off the desk, tucks it back into his wallet, and explains that he did not like any of the rooms. He then leaves town.
“No one earned a penny. However, the whole town is now without debt and looks to the future with great optimism.
roadrunner >>
Cute, but someone lost $100 in your story. Can you see who? >>
Yes, the hotel proprietor watched the €100, which was the debt owed to him by the hooker walk out the door.
bumanchu
Edit: for some reason the post with the correct answer did not show up when I was just looking at this thread and neither did my answer after posting, until I "turned the page"'.
Weird......