Time to say goodbye to another round of green energy.
By Steven Mufson Washington Post Staff Writer Wednesday, July 8, 2009
T. Boone Pickens has temporarily shelved plans to build the world's biggest wind farm in the Texas Panhandle because of tight credit markets and low natural gas prices, and his company Mesa Power is looking for other projects that could use the $2 billion worth of wind turbines already on order.
Ok, so now they talk of manipulation in the oil markets. What if this is true and oil drops to a more natural price of lets say $30-$40. This would impact Brazil and Russia the hardest. What would be the impact on their economies, their currencies, their political stability?
What happens to the arguement that the BRICs are gonna rule the world? What happens to the assumptions of the US dollar and of gold? Would lower energy prices actually help the developed countries pull out of this recession? Would this lend to the inflation arguement? Would cap and trade get passed? What about talk of alternative energy projects or development?
Auction sees massive demand. Bonds go screaming higher
The $19B reopened 10-yrs draw 3.365% with a 3.28 cover and a 43.9% indirect take. The offering was aggressively bid and came in much lower than the 3.4% area expected. The 10-yr was swung hard higher as were the 5-7-yrs. The 10-yr ran to tap the 3.323% point, and after a breather will likely take on the 3.28% point. The market had set the bar high and the auction was able to clear it, with the bid-to-cover at a record level going back to 1993 while the indirect bidder rate was also on the high end./ Not too shabby Auction sees massive demand. Bonds go screaming higher
At last, the U.S. Congress has permitted the U.S. representative at the I.M.F. to vote to sell the 403 tonnes of gold the I.M.F. bought from Brazil and Mexico. As it is not an individual member’s gold we fully expect the members of the fund to OK its sale. The legislation will permit U.S. representatives to the I.M.F. to agree to its planned sale of 13 million ounces of gold, one-eighth of the organization's holdings.
Big Buyers Attracted!
With such a tonnage of gold available at one price, major buyers, from central banks to major institutions would have perhaps the only opportunity they will ever see to buy gold without disturbing the gold price. The value of 400 tonnes of gold at current market prices [$900 an ounce] is $11.574 billion. Many a central bank can switch from the U.S.4 to gold in this amount. Russia with around 4% of its reserves [536 tonnes] wants to take this figure to 10%. Another 400 tonnes would take it to only 7.5% so it would welcome the opportunity. China is an even more compelling case! Would they buy? They are at present buying in the region of 3 to 5 tonnes a month into their reserves at present. They are unlikely to increase this volume dramatically as this would drive the gold price upwards a long way.
In the last few years central banks even in Europe [Germany in particular] have endorsed gold as a desirable reserve asset [the very statement detailing the gold sale agreements stated that gold would remain an important reserve asset] by their failure to sell off all their gold. Now with China and Russia as buyers, such a view is being emphasized by the developing nations. Clearly, gold is here to stay in the monetary system as the hold of the U.S. $ is weakening.
Of course don’t ignore some of the major private institutions or individuals that would like to buy a big volume of gold at one price! At an auction they will jostle with central banks to get the gold!
The method of selling is vital to the impact on the market of the sales and makes it the key to the impact on the gold price itself!
How will the I.M.F. Gold Sales affect the Gold Price?
I have a very strict gun control policy: if there's a gun around, I want to be in control of it - Clint Eastwood
RR--So Droke is saying that if we dont get inflation by 2011 then we wont get it at all? Seems that doesnt leave much time for the Chinese to rid themselves of the dollar. Or as one of the largest holders of dollars wouldnt they prefer deflation? And wouldnt it be "convienient" if the meager savings of the boomers was met with falling prices rather than inflation?
Droke didn't say that inflation was all but impossible from 2012-2014 only that deflation would be the predominant force. He doesn't rule out inflation from the FED going beserk with the printing presses but adds that it would fighting a 120 yr deflationary force that in the past has always won out. But no 120 yr Kress cycle bottom has run into the FED nor Ben Bernanke, Larry Summers, and Robert Rubin before. The 120 yr cycle has also never met a pure fiat world with one nation having a stranglehold on the reserve currency. And no holder of the reserve currency has ever experienced deflation when they printed solely for inflation. It will be mega-battle.
Imagine the 1970's with the 120 year cycle bottom landing right on top of that. Inflationary depression rather than stagflation? The Chinese might be ok with a US deflation where the dollar stays strong as does gold. But if the US consumer is not buying Chinese exports because of a near depression, the Chinese wouldn't like that. It's a choice between them being able to export their goods or seeing their dollar reserves fall in price. I think they'd rather have the exports and continue along the path of trying to diversify their dollar reserves into real assets. But I don't see why they couldn't inflate away while the US is voluntarily allowing deflation to happen as that would meet both their goals. But it's not going to happen. It's a race to the cellar for all fiat currencies. The first one there wins. The boomers would like the buying power that a deflationary dollar brings. That's what Katz preaches. It's the bankers who are not too keen on this concept considering they would no longer prosper from constant inflation and being able to create more money out of thin air. That's why it will never happen. It's still inflate or die and the nation's batting average is still 1.000 whenever it wanted inflation over deflation.
I'll continue to watch the amazing bond auctions from the cheap seats while there are nations lined up screaming to get our debt at interest rates of 3-4% over the next 10-30 years. All the while the US will have to quadruple the money supply to cover the planned deficits over the next 4 years. How about a list of them there nations? Are they bidding because the US is paying favors through the back door, or worse, buy monetizing that debt by buying those same bonds right back at a later date?
The IMF's measly 403 tonnes of gold will have little to no impact on the market. Their infamous gold sales in the 1970's actually lit a fire under the gold price and helped it along. This amount of IMF gold will essentially take the place of the annual 500 tons of gold that the ECB has been dumping for years. The highest probability is that the gold will be sold to various central banks directly thereby having no immediate market impact since it's more a transfer than a sale. Don't expect the 400 tonnes to be offered up to the masses or even to institutions. Rather than settle for market price, the interested CB's would be happy to pay considerably over market to get a large quantity in one shot at one price. The Chinese would probably be happy to get all 403 tonnes at $1000-$1200 per ounce just to move out of some dollars in their inventory. $13 BILL is a pittance compared to the Chinese US debt holdings of $1.7 TRILLION but it's a start and would increase their reported gold inventory by nearly 40%. Who knows how much gold they really have? Because of that, I'd bet the US and other EU nations would balk at them getting it all. Rather, they'd want to spread it around to smaller nations where the gold has less meaning and can be more easily borrowed away. Once the Chinese have it, forget it, you won't be getting it back and there would be no swaps/leases either. If a more US friendly nation gets the gold the US would probably ask them to lease/sell it into the market to continue to help supress gold prices.
Is manufacturing a smaller component of GDP than before? Yes. Is the USA #1. You betcha!! Will we continue to be #1 or #2 for the forseeable future? Most likely.
What actually defines manufacturing has been somewhat changed over the past few years. It is my understanding that the guy who puts the meat on the bun along with the lettuce etc. at Mickey D's is considered a manufacturing position in the US as he is assembling a product from components.
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Comrade jmski, how much longer do Constitution stay when fearless leaders want to change?
Komrade!! Is long time no see for you! Constitution (Amendment X) says that "powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people." Interesting idea, no?
El Presidente' can make new cabinet members, new youth corps brigades, new environmental cops, and make life miserable, but if he tries to take power from Congress or States he get screwed, I hope.
Constitution is much too smart for El Presidente'. Safeguards built right in, like safety belt and parking brake. Congress like power as much as El Presidente. Supremes wear black and groove over law. Is balanced power. Is good. When one power lust too much, they get ass kicked. Is good plan, no?
So, you get a Constitutional Law "professor" to declare all sorts of new ideas about what this Constitution says, but jmski bets heavily that T. Jefferson was smarter than the law professor ever will be. Jmski bets that Constitution will win. If law professor try to burn Reichstag so to declare new powers, jmski thinks that he will get burned.
Maybe we get lucky and professor move to Ethiopia to become goat herder. Is qualified for that.
Wot is middle class
Idiot!!! Like you and me!!! Middle class actually work for living!! See??
I'll continue to watch the amazing bond auctions from the cheap seats while there are nations lined up screaming to get our debt at interest rates of 3-4% over the next 10-30 years. All the while the US will have to quadruple the money supply to cover the planned deficits over the next 4 years. How about a list of them there nations? Are they bidding because the US is paying favors through the back door, or worse, buy monetizing that debt by buying those same bonds right back at a later date?
roadrunner, in order for the government's financing to not get squashed by the current debt burden and entitlement obligations, it is obvious that interest rates must stay very, very low - and Bernake has indicated as much. This means that the 3-4% yields will become highly prized and expectations are re-set. In addition, the stock market will *never* recover without a bunch more liquidity in the system, and actual business activity will never pick up without a total "gimmie" of low, low borrowing rates.
Add to that disastrous scenario the black holes still on the banks' balance sheets.
Idiot!!! Like you and me!!! Middle class actually work for living!! See?? >>
Comrade Jmski
How you noo, Comrade Idiotski is second cousin? He stand all day in bread line when no bread in store. He hope it will com. He also buy pig at top and sell pig at bottom. He also look both ways on 1 way road.
As a senior citizen was driving down the freeway, his car phone rang. Answering, he heard his wife's voice urgently warning him, "Herman, I just heard on the news that there's a car going the wrong way on 280 Interstate. Please be careful!"
"It's not just one car," said Herman. "It's hundreds of them!"
More from Stewart on buying incrementally during times of weakness, rather than chasing the price of bonds/stocks/gold or whatever after they have tripled. If these buyers were so saavy, why didn't they recognize the market's potential long before they even doubled?
Hoye would like to see some further reductions in the COT total interest: less net long specs and less net short commericals (ie the banks). Both are still fairly heavy. He also notes that the 2nd half of the year for the last year of a decade (1969, 1979, 1989, 1999) has brought about a major topping move in one of the markets. He notes 10 yr bond yields in 1969, gold and silver in 1979, the Nikeei in 1989, and the Nasdaq in 1999. All 4 markets had been strongly upwards for 3-4 years. He thinks gold might be the "it" thing for the 2009 award. And Hoye is no die hard gold bull either.
The politics seems to be moving a tad too much into the openly critical phase again.......
As a senior citizen was driving down the freeway, his car phone rang. Answering, he heard his wife's voice urgently warning him, "Herman, I just heard on the news that there's a car going the wrong way on 280 Interstate. Please be careful!"
"It's not just one car," said Herman. "It's hundreds of them!" >>
I knew a guy who got out of a ticket for going 45 in a 30 on the basis of the fact that he was going the wrong way so he was really doing negative forty five; well under the posted limit on the signs facing so he couldn't see them anyway.
I guess when you see speed limit signs with a negative in front then you won't need to look both ways any longer.
A worthwhile link as it contains FDR's confiscation order from 1933. The author discusses the recent cash4gold mania and feels it somehow may be related to future confiscation. Hence I'm more interested in delving into the issue of scrap gold demand since many here have dismissed gold confiscation as an impossibility. Jewelry was exempted from the 1933 order as were numismatic coins having significant value over bullion. I found it interesting that the author also included any numismatic coin having >15% value over its numismatic value. I was unaware of that "guideline" being anything than other a more recent IRS "ruling" to determine if you owned bullion or "rare" coins. The author details what kinds of gold and types of storage were exempted from the 1933 order.
Unlike the end of the dot.com or stock mania in 1998-2000 one didn't see brokers advertising willy nilly to help you sell your stocks. Nor did one see such a thing in 1979 or 1989 for dealers to help you sell your coins. So why the huge interest in the past 6 months to get the scrap gold from Jill and Joe 6Pack? Methinks it has more to do with the rising demand in gold and the lack of production coming from the miners and central bank dishoarding. South Africa just completed a yoy -10% drop in production in May. Over the past several decades SA's overall production has dropped 40%. I certainly could understand there being a huge demand from institutions, investors, nations, banks, etc. to get the gold into their hands. This is one way to keep from having to buy via the tried and true method of the futures markets or directly from the national mints that charge premiums. However, buying on the future's market ensures that you will be bidding prices up and the mints don't have the volume needed by larger buyers.
Scrap supplied a record 500 tons of gold to the buyers in the first 3 months of 2009 (hey, that's more than the IMF wants to sell!). The Comex for example has less than 100 tons listed in inventory so they aren't ready suppliers of large quantities of anything. So picking up cheap gold from the public seems the easiest alternative. One has to ask, where was Cash4gold from 2004-2007 when gold prices were on the march for many months at a time? Does it take a recession to bring out all these new gold buying schemes? And yet, still very few public advertisements suggesting people buy gold. In fact, it's just the same old sellers that have been around since this gold market resurfaced in the 2003-2005 era.
Yes, the cash4gold phenomenon certainly leaves one to pause and think about why now. That advertising costs a wad, especially superbowl time. The first reason I came up with is that someone has come to realize that physical is going to have a big play in the near future but with a little reflection I concluded that since the miners are sideways and since the equity markets are a real crap shoot, why not and buy something that has a fixed value for 24K and since you can get it for 60% or so of that price, maybe it's just the path of least resistance if you have some cash sitting on the side. Of course you have huge tv advertising fees and you have field people gathering and packaging the stuff for the smelters and then you have the smelting and assay and then you have the selling fees and the list of expenses is probably pretty long so getting 60% of spot or what ever they use is probably not such a bad deal for just throwing something in a small envelope, sticking it in the mail and waiting for a check all in the comfort of your couch. There is a huge overhead to doing business this way but it's pretty much fool proof.
Now the real questions is...just what does cash4gold do with the gold? Are they stashing it, are they selling it and sticking the money in their pocket, are they working with the etfs or some other kind of storage/purchase situation? I'm sure this will play out enough that we will get more information soon. JMHO
So, I'm thinkin'...If the banks are getting or trying to get 29.9% on the outstanding balances on the credit cards what if: folks start buying that debt. Maybe a group of folks get together and pool some money into a fund. Say you make a small advertisement that you will pay off 29.9% balances for a 12% interest agreement on the outstanding balance with maybe 50% collateralized debt with the debtor. So you spend a few thousand, buy the account, pay it off, cancel the card and restrict the debtor from getting any more credit until the 12% interest note is paid off in maybe 18 months or so. Say you were very selective on who you would be willing to help out and you could get your default rate down to maybe 10%. Man, if that movement could get started with little groups across the country then we could cripple the banks and drive them into the swamps where hopefully they will drown in their own puke. Hummmmmm...just a thought.
But maybe if you did this with mortgages...say someone was getting a reset to maybe 12% or 15% interest rate and you bought the note and paid it off and sold it back to them for 7% and the fund would tote the note then everyone wins except the mortgage company that wrote the nasty reset in the first place and the fund gets the house should the owner default. Once again, the fund could be very selective on who would be qualified for this type of help. We could hose the predatory lenders and drive them into the swamps where they will drown in their own puke (maybe after a little nick from a water moccasin). Hummmm...so why isn't this being done already?
Of course you have huge tv advertising fees and you have field people gathering and packaging the stuff for the smelters and then you have the smelting and assay and then you have the selling fees and the list of expenses is probably pretty long so getting 60% of spot or what ever they use is probably not such a bad deal for just throwing something in a small envelope, sticking it in the mail and waiting for a check all in the comfort of your couch. There is a huge overhead to doing business this way but it's pretty much fool proof.
It's possible some or most of the jewelry is just being stashed, esp the more desireable 22/24k. The author of that article suggested the possibility of these buyers selling the jewelry right back to people should there ever be a confiscation of bullion and bullion coins. If the public wants to buy gold and bullion coins are not allowed or not available, then jewelry at melt+% certainly works. If someone is stocking up on gold does it matter if its bars, coins, are scrap?
Another article appeared today discussing the Senate Report that found manipulation in the wheat market last year. So the question is, how long before they find that it's 10X more manipulated in the silver futures side (and with only 1/10th the number of players)? This is assuming that all 30 or so funds trading in wheat go 100% long or short at the same time...similar to the 3 silver banking shorts that go up to 98+% short in unison. Contract limits were removed from silver decades ago (hey, why not, no one cares). A sort of implied accountability limit of 6,000 contracts is still there (obviously not enforced) - that's 30 MILL total ounces available for each player. The Senate was concerned that a single player could control of up to 1.6% of US annual production of wheat by using the entire 6500 contracts allowed per position. 30 of them could conceivably control 48%. So how would they feel about a single player being able to control 83% of US annual production of silver with a contract limit position? What if there were 30 willing short players rather than just the 3?
I checked the CFTC's July bank participition in the silver futures markets and there are 3 US banks currently playing....with a total of 32,407 short and 527 long contracts. 33K/3 banks = approx 11,000 contracts per player or 153% of the 36 MILL oz USGS reported annual US production. Those 3 banks combined control silver positions equal to 455% of US annual production or 25% of World production (660 MILL oz per USGS). Yeah, that might have a slight effect on an accurate price discovery mechanism. Fwiw just 3 US banks play in the gold futures holding an average of >39,000 contracts per player (approx 400 tons combined = approx 15-20% of world production). Once the Senate finishes discussing the wheat market, maybe the silver market is worth a looksee. Considering that new CFTC chief Gensler used to be a Goldman boy, the odds are much smaller. But I'm sure he'd be quite supportive of much stricter controls on wheat trading (lol)
> Once the Senate finishes discussing the wheat market, maybe the silver market is worth a looksee.
I agree but I wouldn't hold your breath on seeing this happen anytime soon. Wheat is 'food.' Silver is only something that used to be money. You can live without one. You can't live without the other. The feds tend to be very pragmatic in knowing exactly what issues they can and can't control. They're not always efficient in their efforts but, in the long run, they have more wins than losses.
11 Places With a Worse Economy Than Ours When times are tough, one thing that tends to raise the spirits is knowing that somebody else has it worse. And as wretched as the U.S. economy seems, it's not as bad as in other regions.
The International Monetary Fund's latest tally of world economic conditions forecasts a 2.6 decline in U.S. economic output for all of 2009, and anemic growth of 0.8 percent in 2010. That's more optimistic than the IMF's prediction from three months ago, but those are still lousy numbers. A weak economy throughout 2010 would mean a bleak employment picture, an agonizingly slow housing recovery, and another year or two likely to feel like a recession, whether it's technically labeled that or not.
Ttown, I relinked the article you listed above because of the dozens of articles linked at the end. Excellent article.
These include Greenspan's original 1967 article on why gold is money and a fiat system is nothing more than a confiscation process. Larry Summers 1988 paper on Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard is also here. Summers basically concluded that if real interest rates could be kept positive the value of gold would drop. And that was certainly true right up to 1990 as the chart in the article shows. I was surprised that real rates essentially were negative following 1990 with a few brief touches to or near zero. But rates then swooned following the rapid increase in the money supply beginning in 1996. Having the CPI reworked from 1993-1995 was critical to masking this. The next best thing to having real rates positive is to show a declining CPI.
Articles on the history of the London Gold Pool (1961-1968) are also included. That was the Central Bank's first coordinated attempt to strengthen the USD by managing the gold price. But it ultimately failed. It's comforting to know that Rubin and Summers who filled key Treasury roles in the 1990's are back to help sort things out today.
Wholesale prices are down about 35% nationwide yet consumer prices are only down around 5%. Whatever the dairymen are losing, the middlemen and supermarkets are picking up as they pass it along to the consumer. There is no glut at the supermarkets. Milk prices in my area are largely unchanged...still typically $3.89-$4.50/gal depending on the store. Milk fared similarly to other commodities that boomed in 2007-2008 and then fell apart. One can also lay blame to the various subsidies and price schemes on milk. But the basic weakness can be traced back to the basic financial system failures that have made their mark everything from real estate to stocks to milk. In the end, it's only the farmer that ultimately bears the brunt. And soon there won't be many of them left. There are still the same number of milk drinkers in the world as there were 2 years ago.
One only has to look at the corn/ethanol fiasco to realize that govt is not very efficient when it comes to legislating foo and/or, energy.
Milk in my area is $2.50 a gallon. Down from nearly $4.00 Go to WalMart and see how much milk costs.
My buddy's wife works for DairyLea, DairlyLea. She says the dairy farmers are getting killed.
Is China having trouble selling debt? Some have said that the USA has had to raise rates to "entice" buyers, yet in China rates have risen from 1.55% to 2.22% in the last 2 months. Do people need to be "enticed" to buy Chinese debt? 3-year rates in the USA are 1.5% vs 2.2% in China. Which is viewed as more risky?
Interesting article. Squawk on CNBC is also touting rising Goldman Sachs shares. They indirectly received 12.9 Billion from AIG which the was funded by the American Taxpayer.
Interesting article. Squawk on CNBC is also touting rising Goldman Sachs shares. They indirectly received 12.9 Billion from AIG which the was funded by the American Taxpayer. >>
Glenn Beck just had an interesting show on this. This capital hill shooting cut short the Ron Paul segment, but the "Web" segment he did on GS was very interesting.
Edited to add, one very interested tidbid: During the discussion of the bailout of AIG, the Head of GS was in the meeting. Of course they wanted to bail out AIG, AIG owed them the other side of the bets....
G.S.A. - Goldman Sacks of America. The worry is not big government, socialism, Marxism, tyranny, statists, anti-capitalism, it's mega-corporatism....one step ahead....thanks to GW and carried forward by BHO. Although the aforementioned are credible foes to the gatekeepers of freedom, the power of GS in the most prominent positions of government this past decade + is most alarming.
Wasn't turning some of the major investment banks into bank holding companies supposed to lead to increased transparency? Of the top 5 banks, only JPM reports nearly all of their derivatives under the commercial bank category which shows much more detail. $201 TRILL in notional value is reported by the top 25 com. banks. Yet under the bank holding company category $291 TRILL is reported...a whopping $90 TRILL that is rather opaque. Morgan Stanley shows a miniscule $41 BILL as a Com. Bank yet a whopping $39 TRILL as a bank holding company....nearly 1000X higher. BoA also hides an extra $39 TRILL in this manner. GS hides an additional $8 TRILL and Citi and WFC about $2 TRILL. each. You only have to look at these 5 banks to find the very opaque $90 TRILL.
Kirby notes that with this reporting both MS and GS have zero gold derivatives defined and therefore do not play in the gold market. One would think that with $47 TRILL of undefined derivatives between them that some of that is into gold. $117 BILL in gold deriviative contracts is listed openly, but that number is 3X to 5X larger when opaque otc derivatives are included. It is also interesting to see how the OTC options, forwards, and swaps dwarf anything held in the openly traded futures market.
G.S.A. - Goldman Sacks of America. The worry is not big government, socialism, Marxism, tyranny, statists, anti-capitalism, it's mega-corporatism....one step ahead....thanks to GW and carried forward by BHO. Although the aforementioned are credible foes to the gatekeepers of freedom, the power of GS in the most prominent positions of government this past decade + is most alarming.
Who needs the Trilateral Commission when you can just run things from your own keyboard?
I wonder what the Dems will do once they've created this gargantuan government machine and then the Republicans get back into power? They'll be all over themselves in a panic about how the Republicans have too much power.
Of course, I'm betting that they'll do *anything* to keep that from happening.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
"I wonder what the Dems will do once they've created this gargantuan government machine and then the Republicans get back into power? They'll be all over themselves in a panic about how the Republicans have too much power."
This is very interesting, can you just see the fall out with a Sarah Palin with 32 Czars?
> I wonder what the Dems will do once they've created this gargantuan government machine and then the Republicans get back into power?
It's almost too funny. If you were going to be in a war you wanted repubs in. If the economy and stocks were down you wanted dems. Now, these past blind assumptions are more like 'but the emperor has no clothes on!'
<< <i>Milk in my area is $2.50 a gallon. Down from nearly $4.00 Go to WalMart and see how much milk costs.
My buddy's wife works for DairyLea, DairlyLea. She says the dairy farmers are getting killed.
Is China having trouble selling debt? Some have said that the USA has had to raise rates to "entice" buyers, yet in China rates have risen from 1.55% to 2.22% in the last 2 months. Do people need to be "enticed" to buy Chinese debt? 3-year rates in the USA are 1.5% vs 2.2% in China. Which is viewed as more risky?
Just to update. Went with the wifey last night to check grocery prices.
Gallon of skim milk $1.75. Gallon of whole milk $1.95 Dozen eggs 75c!!
The loaf of whole wheat bread we were paying $3.75 for last week is now $3.00
Does the cereal you buy cost more, maybe, but the raw materials that go into any baking products are perhaps the lowest I can remember in at least a decade. So blame your grocer for keeping prices high, not the markets.
<< <i>Wow! Gold at $940. in July! that's scary!!! >>
Indeed, it was $980 last July. >>
Considering how other investments have done, PM's have held up quite well IMO.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Just a little note from the left coast. The Dollar valuation is bringing money into this country.
I have four Kiwi's in the yard packing a container to ship down under. They came to buy WHATEVER is cheap. They planned to stay two weeks. They buy tools and toys. Jet ski's....12....all 1 or 2 years old with less than 5 hours on them...from BK dealers....and those type of toys. Industrial equip. - and we have plenty for sale in So Cal as a lot of business's have excess right now. It takes about $60-75k to fill a 40' container.
Well, there is so much for sale that they are filling THREE 40' containers. It's almost a quarter mil to do that. They are farmers in New Zealand with NO DEBT on their books and are doubling their money in this venture. This is the forth time here in the last few years. Their comments were...."looks like a lot of Americans are living beyond their means". They work 14 hours a day...in this 105f heat and when they rest for 1/2 an hour...they joke that they are starting to pick up some of our values by taking a sit down break. It's only meant as a joke, of course.
<< <i>Does the cereal you buy cost more, maybe, but the raw materials that go into any baking products are perhaps the lowest I can remember in at least a decade. So blame your grocer for keeping prices high, not the markets. >>
We stopped buying cereal years ago since my wife makes our own. She purchases the grain for breakfast cereal at our local bulk food store. The nuts are purchased in bulk at Sam's Club. The fruit, fresh or dried, comes out of our own garden. The resulting cereal is superior to the $4 a box (or more) junk sold in supermarkets at a fraction of the price.
Just to update. Went with the wifey last night to check grocery prices.
Gallon of skim milk $1.75. Gallon of whole milk $1.95 Dozen eggs 75c!!
The loaf of whole wheat bread we were paying $3.75 for last week is now $3.00
Those prices are not available here in suburbia Connecticut. And no doubt pricier as you get closer to bigger cities. I know you can't find milk for $1.75 in Greenwhich. BJ's wholesale club runs about $2.50-$2.75 for their lousiest brand. Stop and Shop, A&P, Big Y, and most other smaller marts average in the $3.75-$4.89. Walmart doesn't dictate what all prices should be for the entire USA. I can buy produce at 50% off at a farmer's market 45 miles from my house. But how much can I load up on to make the trip worthwhile?
That price for wheat bread is atrocious. You should be able to find a decent wheat bread in the $2.50-$2.79 range considering they are almost always buy 2 for $5 sales. To help with making prices look lower, manufacturers continue to shrink the packaging whenever they can. That 5 oz. can of tuna that is still about the same price as it was 10-30 years ago is only about 2/3 the size of the old can. And one can only guess at the quality of tuna and other parts that now go into a standard 5 oz. can.
Does it really matter how the prices get where they are? It's just like the stock market. The price is what it is. Who cares how it got there whether by the grocer or by the producer. You pay it or you don't. Most of us won't find it worthwhile to travel several hours to your location in New York to buy milk and eggs on sale. At let's be realistic. I'm not going to be crushed by what the price of eggs, milk, and bread is. In one month my house might go through a gallon of 1% milk, 2 dozen eggs, and 3 loaves of wheat bread. I'm more concerned with the price of meats and fish where more of the dollar is spent....also soymilk, flax products, wheat germ, nuts, produce, fruits, sugar, juices, vitamins, supplements, etc. are where more of our food money gets spent. And none of those has gotten any cheaper in the last 12 months.
And besides food we have property taxes, govt taxes, state taxes, fees, services, gas, oil, home maintenance products and services, health care, car repairs/service, insurance of all types, cable, phone, lawyers, etc. Again, none of those is really any cheaper than before from where I stand. We've covered this ground before. Unless one is living in upper New Hampshire or the bayous of Louisiana, most prices are stable or rising.
And if you really wanted to save on milk prices load up on Carnation powdered milk. I lived off that stuff in college for almost nothing and it tasted like crap, but you can get used to anything. It's probably factored into the CPI that when milk prices hit $5-$6/gall, that the public will substitute" into Carnation by the box and "effectively" drop milk prices to pennies per gallon, thereby crushing the CPI...a win-win for consumer and government. In buying milk for $1.75 it's probably loaded with hormones humans don't need. In fact my wife buys the zero hormone brand at $4.50/gall saying it's well worth it. And I try to sneak in the $2.75 gallon from BJ's when she's not looking.
<< <i>Just to update. Went with the wifey last night to check grocery prices.
Gallon of skim milk $1.75. Gallon of whole milk $1.95 Dozen eggs 75c!!
The loaf of whole wheat bread we were paying $3.75 for last week is now $3.00
/
Those are some great prices. Those can't be "big city" prices(?) >>
Only time you'll catch me in a big city is at an airport. LOL
Prices were at a national chain though. Not Wal-Mart.
That price for wheat bread is atrocious. You should be able to find a decent wheat bread in the $2.50-$2.79 range considering they are almost always buy 2 for $5 sales.
Comments
Time to say goodbye to another round of green energy.
By Steven Mufson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
T. Boone Pickens has temporarily shelved plans to build the world's biggest wind farm in the Texas Panhandle because of tight credit markets and low natural gas prices, and his company Mesa Power is looking for other projects that could use the $2 billion worth of wind turbines already on order.
What happens to the arguement that the BRICs are gonna rule the world? What happens to the assumptions of the US dollar and of gold? Would lower energy prices actually help the developed countries pull out of this recession? Would this lend to the inflation arguement? Would cap and trade get passed? What about talk of alternative energy projects or development?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
10-year Note Auction Results: High Yield 3.36% (3.398% expected, 4-auction avg 3.227%); Bid/Cover 3.28x (Avg 2.42x); Indirect Bidders 43.9% (Avg 27.8%)
Commentary by Briefing.com........
Auction sees massive demand. Bonds go screaming higher
The $19B reopened 10-yrs draw 3.365% with a 3.28 cover and a 43.9% indirect take. The offering was aggressively bid and came in much lower than the 3.4% area expected. The 10-yr was swung hard higher as were the 5-7-yrs. The 10-yr ran to tap the 3.323% point, and after a breather will likely take on the 3.28% point. The market had set the bar high and the auction was able to clear it, with the bid-to-cover at a record level going back to 1993 while the indirect bidder rate was also on the high end./ Not too shabby Auction sees massive demand. Bonds go screaming higher
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
At last, the U.S. Congress has permitted the U.S. representative at the I.M.F. to vote to sell the 403 tonnes of gold the I.M.F. bought from Brazil and Mexico. As it is not an individual member’s gold we fully expect the members of the fund to OK its sale. The legislation will permit U.S. representatives to the I.M.F. to agree to its planned sale of 13 million ounces of gold, one-eighth of the organization's holdings.
Big Buyers Attracted!
With such a tonnage of gold available at one price, major buyers, from central banks to major institutions would have perhaps the only opportunity they will ever see to buy gold without disturbing the gold price. The value of 400 tonnes of gold at current market prices [$900 an ounce] is $11.574 billion. Many a central bank can switch from the U.S.4 to gold in this amount. Russia with around 4% of its reserves [536 tonnes] wants to take this figure to 10%. Another 400 tonnes would take it to only 7.5% so it would welcome the opportunity. China is an even more compelling case! Would they buy? They are at present buying in the region of 3 to 5 tonnes a month into their reserves at present. They are unlikely to increase this volume dramatically as this would drive the gold price upwards a long way.
In the last few years central banks even in Europe [Germany in particular] have endorsed gold as a desirable reserve asset [the very statement detailing the gold sale agreements stated that gold would remain an important reserve asset] by their failure to sell off all their gold. Now with China and Russia as buyers, such a view is being emphasized by the developing nations. Clearly, gold is here to stay in the monetary system as the hold of the U.S. $ is weakening.
Of course don’t ignore some of the major private institutions or individuals that would like to buy a big volume of gold at one price! At an auction they will jostle with central banks to get the gold!
The method of selling is vital to the impact on the market of the sales and makes it the key to the impact on the gold price itself!
How will the I.M.F. Gold Sales affect the Gold Price?
I have a very strict gun control policy: if there's a gun around, I want to be in control of it - Clint Eastwood
Droke didn't say that inflation was all but impossible from 2012-2014 only that deflation would be the predominant force. He doesn't rule out inflation from the FED going beserk with the printing presses but adds that it would fighting a 120 yr deflationary force that in the past has always won out. But no 120 yr Kress cycle bottom has run into the FED nor Ben Bernanke, Larry Summers, and Robert Rubin before. The 120 yr cycle has also never met a pure fiat world with one nation having a stranglehold on the reserve currency. And no holder of the reserve currency has ever experienced deflation when they printed solely for inflation. It will be mega-battle.
Imagine the 1970's with the 120 year cycle bottom landing right on top of that. Inflationary depression rather than stagflation? The Chinese might be ok with a US deflation where the dollar stays strong as does gold. But if the US consumer is not buying Chinese exports because of a near depression, the Chinese wouldn't like that. It's a choice between them being able to export their goods or seeing their dollar reserves fall in price. I think they'd rather have the exports and continue along the path of trying to diversify their dollar reserves into real assets. But I don't see why they couldn't inflate away while the US is voluntarily allowing deflation to happen as that would meet both their goals. But it's not going to happen. It's a race to the cellar for all fiat currencies. The first one there wins. The boomers would like the buying power that a deflationary dollar brings. That's what Katz preaches. It's the bankers who are not too keen on this concept considering they would no longer prosper from constant inflation and being able to create more money out of thin air. That's why it will never happen. It's still inflate or die and the nation's batting average is still 1.000 whenever it wanted inflation over deflation.
I'll continue to watch the amazing bond auctions from the cheap seats while there are nations lined up screaming to get our debt at interest rates of 3-4% over the next 10-30 years. All the while the US will have to quadruple the money supply to cover the planned deficits over the next 4 years. How about a list of them there nations? Are they bidding because the US is paying favors through the back door, or worse, buy monetizing that debt by buying those same bonds right back at a later date?
The IMF's measly 403 tonnes of gold will have little to no impact on the market. Their infamous gold sales in the 1970's actually lit a fire under the gold price and helped it along. This amount of IMF gold will essentially take the place of the annual 500 tons of gold that the ECB has been dumping for years. The highest probability is that the gold will be sold to various central banks directly thereby having no immediate market impact since it's more a transfer than a sale. Don't expect the 400 tonnes to be offered up to the masses or even to institutions. Rather than settle for market price, the interested CB's would be happy to pay considerably over market to get a large quantity in one shot at one price. The Chinese would probably be happy to get all 403 tonnes at $1000-$1200 per ounce just to move out of some dollars in their inventory. $13 BILL is a pittance compared to the Chinese US debt holdings of $1.7 TRILLION but it's a start and would increase their reported gold inventory by nearly 40%. Who knows how much gold they really have? Because of that, I'd bet the US and other EU nations would balk at them getting it all. Rather, they'd want to spread it around to smaller nations where the gold has less meaning and can be more easily borrowed away. Once the Chinese have it, forget it, you won't be getting it back and there would be no swaps/leases either. If a more US friendly nation gets the gold the US would probably ask them to lease/sell it into the market to continue to help supress gold prices.
roadrunner
The world's top manufacturing country is the United States
Is manufacturing a smaller component of GDP than before? Yes. Is the USA #1. You betcha!! Will we continue to be #1 or #2 for the forseeable future? Most likely.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Forum AdministratorPSA & PSA/DNA ForumModerator@collectors.com | p 800.325.1121 | PSAcard.com
pot, kettle, black
Comrade jmski, how much longer do Constitution stay when fearless leaders want to change?
Komrade!! Is long time no see for you! Constitution (Amendment X) says that "powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people." Interesting idea, no?
El Presidente' can make new cabinet members, new youth corps brigades, new environmental cops, and make life miserable, but if he tries to take power from Congress or States he get screwed, I hope.
Constitution is much too smart for El Presidente'. Safeguards built right in, like safety belt and parking brake. Congress like power as much as El Presidente. Supremes wear black and groove over law. Is balanced power. Is good. When one power lust too much, they get ass kicked. Is good plan, no?
So, you get a Constitutional Law "professor" to declare all sorts of new ideas about what this Constitution says, but jmski bets heavily that T. Jefferson was smarter than the law professor ever will be. Jmski bets that Constitution will win. If law professor try to burn Reichstag so to declare new powers, jmski thinks that he will get burned.
Maybe we get lucky and professor move to Ethiopia to become goat herder. Is qualified for that.
Wot is middle class
Idiot!!! Like you and me!!! Middle class actually work for living!! See??
I'll continue to watch the amazing bond auctions from the cheap seats while there are nations lined up screaming to get our debt at interest rates of 3-4% over the next 10-30 years. All the while the US will have to quadruple the money supply to cover the planned deficits over the next 4 years. How about a list of them there nations? Are they bidding because the US is paying favors through the back door, or worse, buy monetizing that debt by buying those same bonds right back at a later date?
roadrunner, in order for the government's financing to not get squashed by the current debt burden and entitlement obligations, it is obvious that interest rates must stay very, very low - and Bernake has indicated as much. This means that the 3-4% yields will become highly prized and expectations are re-set. In addition, the stock market will *never* recover without a bunch more liquidity in the system, and actual business activity will never pick up without a total "gimmie" of low, low borrowing rates.
Add to that disastrous scenario the black holes still on the banks' balance sheets.
Bank Earnings Propaganda Debunked
And let's talk about company earnings vs. relative stock market valuations,
Negative PEs for S&P 500 in 2010 Q2 implies paying good money for the privilege of negative earnings
The bargains aren't here yet, and prosperity isn't just around the corner. Thanks again, Goldman Sachs and Karl Marx.
I knew it would happen.
Wot is middle class
Idiot!!! Like you and me!!! Middle class actually work for living!! See??
Comrade Jmski
How you noo, Comrade Idiotski is second cousin? He stand all day in bread line when no bread in store. He hope it will com. He also buy pig at top and sell pig at bottom. He also look both ways on 1 way road.
Comrade Renski
> He also look both ways on 1 way road.
That doesn't sound dumb to me
As a senior citizen was driving down the freeway, his car phone rang.
Answering, he heard his wife's voice urgently warning him,
"Herman, I just heard on the news that there's a car going the wrong way on 280 Interstate.
Please be careful!"
"It's not just one car," said Herman. "It's hundreds of them!"
More from Stewart on buying incrementally during times of weakness, rather than chasing the price of bonds/stocks/gold or whatever after they have tripled. If these buyers were so saavy, why didn't they recognize the market's potential long before they even doubled?
Bob Hoye on gold for rest of 2009 and into 2010
Hoye would like to see some further reductions in the COT total interest: less net long specs and less net short commericals (ie the banks). Both are still fairly heavy. He also notes that the 2nd half of the year for the last year of a decade (1969, 1979, 1989, 1999) has brought about a major topping move in one of the markets. He notes 10 yr bond yields in 1969, gold and silver in 1979, the Nikeei in 1989, and the Nasdaq in 1999. All 4 markets had been strongly upwards for 3-4 years. He thinks gold might be the "it" thing for the 2009 award. And Hoye is no die hard gold bull either.
The politics seems to be moving a tad too much into the openly critical phase again.......
roadrunner
<< <i>> He also look both ways on 1 way road.
That doesn't sound dumb to me
As a senior citizen was driving down the freeway, his car phone rang.
Answering, he heard his wife's voice urgently warning him,
"Herman, I just heard on the news that there's a car going the wrong way on 280 Interstate.
Please be careful!"
"It's not just one car," said Herman. "It's hundreds of them!" >>
I knew a guy who got out of a ticket for going 45 in a 30 on the
basis of the fact that he was going the wrong way so he was really
doing negative forty five; well under the posted limit on the signs
facing so he couldn't see them anyway.
I guess when you see speed limit signs with a negative in front
then you won't need to look both ways any longer.
A worthwhile link as it contains FDR's confiscation order from 1933. The author discusses the recent cash4gold mania and feels it somehow may be related to future confiscation. Hence I'm more interested in delving into the issue of scrap gold demand since many here have dismissed gold confiscation as an impossibility. Jewelry was exempted from the 1933 order as were numismatic coins having significant value over bullion. I found it interesting that the author also included any numismatic coin having >15% value over its numismatic value. I was unaware of that "guideline" being anything than other a more recent IRS "ruling" to determine if you owned bullion or "rare" coins. The author details what kinds of gold and types of storage were exempted from the 1933 order.
Unlike the end of the dot.com or stock mania in 1998-2000 one didn't see brokers advertising willy nilly to help you sell your stocks. Nor did one see such a thing in 1979 or 1989 for dealers to help you sell your coins. So why the huge interest in the past 6 months to get the scrap gold from Jill and Joe 6Pack? Methinks it has more to do with the rising demand in gold and the lack of production coming from the miners and central bank dishoarding. South Africa just completed a yoy -10% drop in production in May. Over the past several decades SA's overall production has dropped 40%. I certainly could understand there being a huge demand from institutions, investors, nations, banks, etc. to get the gold into their hands. This is one way to keep from having to buy via the tried and true method of the futures markets or directly from the national mints that charge premiums. However, buying on the future's market ensures that you will be bidding prices up and the mints don't have the volume needed by larger buyers.
Scrap supplied a record 500 tons of gold to the buyers in the first 3 months of 2009 (hey, that's more than the IMF wants to sell!). The Comex for example has less than 100 tons listed in inventory so they aren't ready suppliers of large quantities of anything. So picking up cheap gold from the public seems the easiest alternative. One has to ask, where was Cash4gold from 2004-2007 when gold prices were on the march for many months at a time? Does it take a recession to bring out all these new gold buying schemes? And yet, still very few public advertisements suggesting people buy gold. In fact, it's just the same old sellers that have been around since this gold market resurfaced in the 2003-2005 era.
roadrunner
Now the real questions is...just what does cash4gold do with the gold? Are they stashing it, are they selling it and sticking the money in their pocket, are they working with the etfs or some other kind of storage/purchase situation? I'm sure this will play out enough that we will get more information soon. JMHO
But maybe if you did this with mortgages...say someone was getting a reset to maybe 12% or 15% interest rate and you bought the note and paid it off and sold it back to them for 7% and the fund would tote the note then everyone wins except the mortgage company that wrote the nasty reset in the first place and the fund gets the house should the owner default. Once again, the fund could be very selective on who would be qualified for this type of help. We could hose the predatory lenders and drive them into the swamps where they will drown in their own puke (maybe after a little nick from a water moccasin). Hummmm...so why isn't this being done already?
It's possible some or most of the jewelry is just being stashed, esp the more desireable 22/24k. The author of that article suggested the possibility of these buyers selling the jewelry right back to people should there ever be a confiscation of bullion and bullion coins. If the public wants to buy gold and bullion coins are not allowed or not available, then jewelry at melt+% certainly works. If someone is stocking up on gold does it matter if its bars, coins, are scrap?
Another article appeared today discussing the Senate Report that found manipulation in the wheat market last year. So the question is, how long before they find that it's 10X more manipulated in the silver futures side (and with only 1/10th the number of players)? This is assuming that all 30 or so funds trading in wheat go 100% long or short at the same time...similar to the 3 silver banking shorts that go up to 98+% short in unison. Contract limits were removed from silver decades ago (hey, why not, no one cares). A sort of implied accountability limit of 6,000 contracts is still there (obviously not enforced) - that's 30 MILL total ounces available for each player. The Senate was concerned that a single player could control of up to 1.6% of US annual production of wheat by using the entire 6500 contracts allowed per position. 30 of them could conceivably control 48%. So how would they feel about a single player being able to control 83% of US annual production of silver with a contract limit position? What if there were 30 willing short players rather than just the 3?
I checked the CFTC's July bank participition in the silver futures markets and there are 3 US banks currently playing....with a total of 32,407 short and 527 long contracts. 33K/3 banks = approx 11,000 contracts per player or 153% of the 36 MILL oz USGS reported annual US production. Those 3 banks combined control silver positions equal to 455% of US annual production or 25% of World production (660 MILL oz per USGS). Yeah, that might have a slight effect on an accurate price discovery mechanism. Fwiw just 3 US banks play in the gold futures holding an average of >39,000 contracts per player (approx 400 tons combined = approx 15-20% of world production). Once the Senate finishes discussing the wheat market, maybe the silver market is worth a looksee. Considering that new CFTC chief Gensler used to be a Goldman boy, the odds are much smaller. But I'm sure he'd be quite supportive of much stricter controls on wheat trading (lol)
roadrunner
> Once the Senate finishes discussing the wheat market, maybe the silver market is worth a looksee.
I agree but I wouldn't hold your breath on seeing this happen anytime soon. Wheat is 'food.' Silver is only something that used to be money. You can live without one. You can't live without the other. The feds tend to be very pragmatic in knowing exactly what issues they can and can't control. They're not always efficient in their efforts but, in the long run, they have more wins than losses.
Box of 20
11 Places With a Worse Economy Than Ours
When times are tough, one thing that tends to raise the spirits is knowing that somebody else has it worse. And as wretched as the U.S. economy seems, it's not as bad as in other regions.
The International Monetary Fund's latest tally of world economic conditions forecasts a 2.6 decline in U.S. economic output for all of 2009, and anemic growth of 0.8 percent in 2010. That's more optimistic than the IMF's prediction from three months ago, but those are still lousy numbers. A weak economy throughout 2010 would mean a bleak employment picture, an agonizingly slow housing recovery, and another year or two likely to feel like a recession, whether it's technically labeled that or not.
11 Places With a Worse Economy Than Ours
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>CFTC chief Gensler used to be a Goldman boy >>
no such thing as "used to"
they are always working for Goldman, they just occupy US government offices
Since January 2008 milk prices have fallen by nearly half
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Ttown, I relinked the article you listed above because of the dozens of articles linked at the end. Excellent article.
These include Greenspan's original 1967 article on why gold is money and a fiat system is nothing more than a confiscation process. Larry Summers 1988 paper on Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard is also here. Summers basically concluded that if real interest rates could be kept positive the value of gold would drop. And that was certainly true right up to 1990 as the chart in the article shows. I was surprised that real rates essentially were negative following 1990 with a few brief touches to or near zero. But rates then swooned following the rapid increase in the money supply beginning in 1996. Having the CPI reworked from 1993-1995 was critical to masking this. The next best thing to having real rates positive is to show a declining CPI.
Articles on the history of the London Gold Pool (1961-1968) are also included. That was the Central Bank's first coordinated attempt to strengthen the USD by managing the gold price. But it ultimately failed. It's comforting to know that Rubin and Summers who filled key Treasury roles in the 1990's are back to help sort things out today.
Boomers get ready to face winter - 4th cyclic generational change upon us
This social blueprint tends to line up with the end of the 120 yr cycle and the Kondratiev winter theory.
roadrunner
The Fourth Turning.
Chilling in it's near term ramifications...Hopeful in that Spring always follows Winter.
Neil Howe and William Strauss on The Fourth Turning in 1997 CSpan
Wholesale prices are down about 35% nationwide yet consumer prices are only down around 5%. Whatever the dairymen are losing, the middlemen and supermarkets are picking up as they pass it along to the consumer. There is no glut at the supermarkets. Milk prices in my area are largely unchanged...still typically $3.89-$4.50/gal depending on the store. Milk fared similarly to other commodities that boomed in 2007-2008 and then fell apart. One can also lay blame to the various subsidies and price schemes on milk. But the basic weakness can be traced back to the basic financial system failures that have made their mark everything from real estate to stocks to milk. In the end, it's only the farmer that ultimately bears the brunt. And soon there won't be many of them left. There are still the same number of milk drinkers in the world as there were 2 years ago.
One only has to look at the corn/ethanol fiasco to realize that govt is not very efficient when it comes to legislating foo and/or, energy.
roadrunner
My buddy's wife works for DairyLea, DairlyLea. She says the dairy farmers are getting killed.
Is China having trouble selling debt? Some have said that the USA has had to raise rates to "entice" buyers, yet in China rates have risen from 1.55% to 2.22% in the last 2 months. Do people need to be "enticed" to buy Chinese debt? 3-year rates in the USA are 1.5% vs 2.2% in China. Which is viewed as more risky?
Two auction failures last week reflected concern
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins
<< <i>Wow! Gold at $940. in July! that's scary!!! >>
Indeed, it was $980 last July.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins
> this story just popped up from the WSJ its called gold loosing its luster
Have to admit I haven't read it yet. Curious timing (the WSJ tends to hate gold). We're currently up $30.00 since mid day on the 13th.
Interesting article. Squawk on CNBC is also touting rising Goldman Sachs shares. They indirectly received 12.9 Billion from AIG which the was funded by the American Taxpayer.
Box of 20
<< <i>What Wall Steet Owes You
Interesting article. Squawk on CNBC is also touting rising Goldman Sachs shares. They indirectly received 12.9 Billion from AIG which the was funded by the American Taxpayer. >>
Glenn Beck just had an interesting show on this. This capital hill shooting cut short the Ron Paul segment, but the "Web" segment he did on GS was very interesting.
Edited to add, one very interested tidbid: During the discussion of the bailout of AIG, the Head of GS was in the meeting. Of course they wanted to bail out AIG, AIG owed them the other side of the bets....
??
seems like Ag may NOT be the play??
edited for spelling and
R95
Wasn't turning some of the major investment banks into bank holding companies supposed to lead to increased transparency? Of the top 5 banks, only JPM reports nearly all of their derivatives under the commercial bank category which shows much more detail. $201 TRILL in notional value is reported by the top 25 com. banks. Yet under the bank holding company category $291 TRILL is reported...a whopping $90 TRILL that is rather opaque. Morgan Stanley shows a miniscule $41 BILL as a Com. Bank yet a whopping $39 TRILL as a bank holding company....nearly 1000X higher. BoA also hides an extra $39 TRILL in this manner. GS hides an additional $8 TRILL and Citi and WFC about $2 TRILL. each. You only have to look at these 5 banks to find the very opaque $90 TRILL.
Kirby notes that with this reporting both MS and GS have zero gold derivatives defined and therefore do not play in the gold market. One would think that with $47 TRILL of undefined derivatives between them that some of that is into gold. $117 BILL in gold deriviative contracts is listed openly, but that number is 3X to 5X larger when opaque otc derivatives are included. It is also interesting to see how the OTC options, forwards, and swaps dwarf anything held in the openly traded futures market.
roadrunner
Who needs the Trilateral Commission when you can just run things from your own keyboard?
I wonder what the Dems will do once they've created this gargantuan government machine and then the Republicans get back into power? They'll be all over themselves in a panic about how the Republicans have too much power.
Of course, I'm betting that they'll do *anything* to keep that from happening.
I knew it would happen.
This is very interesting, can you just see the fall out with a Sarah Palin with 32 Czars?
> I wonder what the Dems will do once they've created this gargantuan government machine and then the Republicans get back into power?
It's almost too funny. If you were going to be in a war you wanted repubs in. If the economy and stocks were down you wanted dems. Now, these past blind assumptions are more like 'but the emperor has no clothes on!'
The explanations/coverup aren't even believable anymore.
"Gov't Sacks" has blatant disregard for the American.
R95
<< <i>Milk in my area is $2.50 a gallon. Down from nearly $4.00 Go to WalMart and see how much milk costs.
My buddy's wife works for DairyLea, DairlyLea. She says the dairy farmers are getting killed.
Is China having trouble selling debt? Some have said that the USA has had to raise rates to "entice" buyers, yet in China rates have risen from 1.55% to 2.22% in the last 2 months. Do people need to be "enticed" to buy Chinese debt? 3-year rates in the USA are 1.5% vs 2.2% in China. Which is viewed as more risky?
Two auction failures last week reflected concern >>
Just to update. Went with the wifey last night to check grocery prices.
Gallon of skim milk $1.75.
Gallon of whole milk $1.95
Dozen eggs 75c!!
The loaf of whole wheat bread we were paying $3.75 for last week is now $3.00
Does the cereal you buy cost more, maybe, but the raw materials that go into any baking products are perhaps the lowest I can remember in at least a decade. So blame your grocer for keeping prices high, not the markets.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Just to update. Went with the wifey last night to check grocery prices.
Gallon of skim milk $1.75.
Gallon of whole milk $1.95
Dozen eggs 75c!!
The loaf of whole wheat bread we were paying $3.75 for last week is now $3.00
/
Those are some great prices. Those can't be "big city" prices(?)
<< <i>
<< <i>Wow! Gold at $940. in July! that's scary!!! >>
Indeed, it was $980 last July. >>
Considering how other investments have done, PM's have held up quite well IMO.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I have four Kiwi's in the yard packing a container to ship down under. They came to buy WHATEVER is cheap. They planned to stay two weeks. They buy tools and toys. Jet ski's....12....all 1 or 2 years old with less than 5 hours on them...from BK dealers....and those type of toys. Industrial equip. - and we have plenty for sale in So Cal as a lot of business's have excess right now. It takes about $60-75k to fill a 40' container.
Well, there is so much for sale that they are filling THREE 40' containers. It's almost a quarter mil to do that.
They are farmers in New Zealand with NO DEBT on their books and are doubling their money in this venture. This is the forth time here in the last few years. Their comments were...."looks like a lot of Americans are living beyond their means".
They work 14 hours a day...in this 105f heat and when they rest for 1/2 an hour...they joke that they are starting to pick up some of our values by taking a sit down break. It's only meant as a joke, of course.
<< <i>Does the cereal you buy cost more, maybe, but the raw materials that go into any baking products are perhaps the lowest I can remember in at least a decade. So blame your grocer for keeping prices high, not the markets. >>
We stopped buying cereal years ago since my wife makes our own. She purchases the grain for breakfast cereal at our local bulk food store. The nuts are purchased in bulk at Sam's Club. The fruit, fresh or dried, comes out of our own garden. The resulting cereal is superior to the $4 a box (or more) junk sold in supermarkets at a fraction of the price.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
Gallon of skim milk $1.75.
Gallon of whole milk $1.95
Dozen eggs 75c!!
The loaf of whole wheat bread we were paying $3.75 for last week is now $3.00
Those prices are not available here in suburbia Connecticut. And no doubt pricier as you get closer to bigger cities. I know you can't find milk for $1.75 in Greenwhich. BJ's wholesale club runs about $2.50-$2.75 for their lousiest brand. Stop and Shop, A&P, Big Y, and most other smaller marts average in the $3.75-$4.89. Walmart doesn't dictate what all prices should be for the entire USA. I can buy produce at 50% off at a farmer's market 45 miles from my house. But how much can I load up on to make the trip worthwhile?
That price for wheat bread is atrocious. You should be able to find a decent wheat bread in the $2.50-$2.79 range considering they are almost always buy 2 for $5 sales. To help with making prices look lower, manufacturers continue to shrink the packaging whenever they can. That 5 oz. can of tuna that is still about the same price as it was 10-30 years ago is only about 2/3 the size of the old can. And one can only guess at the quality of tuna and other parts that now go into a standard 5 oz. can.
Does it really matter how the prices get where they are? It's just like the stock market. The price is what it is. Who cares how it got there whether by the grocer or by the producer. You pay it or you don't. Most of us won't find it worthwhile to travel several hours to your location in New York to buy milk and eggs on sale. At let's be realistic. I'm not going to be crushed by what the price of eggs, milk, and bread is. In one month my house might go through a gallon of 1% milk, 2 dozen eggs, and 3 loaves of wheat bread. I'm more concerned with the price of meats and fish where more of the dollar is spent....also soymilk, flax products, wheat germ, nuts, produce, fruits, sugar, juices, vitamins, supplements, etc. are where more of our food money gets spent. And none of those has gotten any cheaper in the last 12 months.
And besides food we have property taxes, govt taxes, state taxes, fees, services, gas, oil, home maintenance products and services, health care, car repairs/service, insurance of all types, cable, phone, lawyers, etc. Again, none of those is really any cheaper than before from where I stand. We've covered this ground before. Unless one is living in upper New Hampshire or the bayous of Louisiana, most prices are stable or rising.
And if you really wanted to save on milk prices load up on Carnation powdered milk. I lived off that stuff in college for almost nothing and it tasted like crap, but you can get used to anything. It's probably factored into the CPI that when milk prices hit $5-$6/gall, that the public will substitute" into Carnation by the box and "effectively" drop milk prices to pennies per gallon, thereby crushing the CPI...a win-win for consumer and government. In buying milk for $1.75 it's probably loaded with hormones humans don't need. In fact my wife buys the zero hormone brand at $4.50/gall saying it's well worth it. And I try to sneak in the $2.75 gallon from BJ's when she's not looking.
roadrunner
<< <i>Just to update. Went with the wifey last night to check grocery prices.
Gallon of skim milk $1.75.
Gallon of whole milk $1.95
Dozen eggs 75c!!
The loaf of whole wheat bread we were paying $3.75 for last week is now $3.00
/
Those are some great prices. Those can't be "big city" prices(?) >>
Only time you'll catch me in a big city is at an airport. LOL
Prices were at a national chain though. Not Wal-Mart.
That price for wheat bread is atrocious. You should be able to find a decent wheat bread in the $2.50-$2.79 range considering they are almost always buy 2 for $5 sales.
Nah, fresh baked. Best wheat bread I ever had.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear