Martensen lists the identifying CUSIP number for Thursday's 7 yr bond auction and claims the FED bought back nearly half of the notes from the primary bond dealers within a week, a sly way of monetizing the debt rather than buying it outright. Makes sense considering that the 5 yr auction was weak, and then the 7 yr. auction perked up all of a sudden. While the method may be legit per some of the blogger comments below that article, it does seem at least misleading for the FED/Treasury/media to call the results "strong" when the FED effectively ends up being 50% of the auction.
Peter Degraaf mentioned the above website as a means to monitor web site traffic % to help quantity PM market action. In this case he referenced kitco.com to see if current traffic volume was higher or lower than previous times this year to decide if gold was overpriced/overexposed. Another tool to add the arsenal.
Fed Laundering Money through the Big Banks Into the Stock Market
So, instead of the big banks showing huge losses in derivatives as they should, Bernake hands them money to not only repair their balance sheets but also to allow them to buy up chunks of Corporate America?
WTF?
Where is the criminal justice system?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
This immediate repurchase of newly auction bonds by the Fed tells us that demand for these bonds is not nearly as high as advertised, and that things are not quite as strong as represented.
And oh, by the way, don't expect any stock market weakness while so many billions are being shoveled out the Fed and into the pockets of the primary dealers. They'll have to do something with all that freshly minted cash.....
The stock market rally does seem to have appeared out of nowhere, with no basis in fundamentals, like sales, or profits. D'oh!
That's called inflating the currency, no matter how you slice it. How long before precious metals investors are singled out as "evil speculators"??
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
So, instead of the big banks showing huge losses in derivatives as they should, Bernake hands them money to not only repair their balance sheets but also to allow them to buy up chunks of Corporate America?
It also allowed the big banks and corporations to double their stock prices and then sell off another round of new offerings at inflated prices. Then the insiders can sell off another round of their personal stock portfolios.
It also allowed the big banks and corporations to double their stock prices and then sell off another round of new offerings at inflated prices. Then the insiders can sell off another round of their personal stock portfolios.
It's hard to keep up with their antics - it really is. Most of the public want stocks to keep going up, and psychologically it is very hard to cut the umbilical cord to the government even though it is plain to see what they are doing to you.
Even if the public sees and understands what is going on, the dependency factor helps to keep most people in denial. Even though the debt clock is well publicized, most people act as if it belongs in a different dimension from ours. That's a big mistake.
Numbers don't lie. Politicians do. Reality will hit pretty hard at all the wrong times.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>I don't know about the rest of you folks... >>
//////////////////\\\\\\\\\\\
We should be a little upset at the least. Goldman-Sachs had over $50 billion in NET income from only 5 years (2003-2007) and then in 2008 things turn bad and they demand $20 billion taxpayer dollars with no strings attached! Two bad quarters and now G-S is back to making $ billions off free money from the Fed.
If I could have $ billions at 0% I'd make a lot too!
Now I don't know about you, but it seems someone is getting fleeced and it feels like me.
A few things I found interesting in this article. While we all know that the mine production of gold has dropped 10% over the past 8 years despite a tripling of the gold price, it was essetially the same case during the 1970's. Mine production dropped sharply for the first half of the 1970's as the gold price increased several fold. As gold increased 8X from late 1976 to 1980 mine gold production was essentially unchanged. Katz presents various supporting information and charts. He also notes that the price of wheat bottomed out at around 50c/bu during each of the previous major economic contractions (Civil War, 1890's, great depression). However by 1999-2001 the price had fallen even further to 17c/bu on the back of the "new" financial servicing economy. In other words, the overall 45% drive down in commodity prices from 1980-1999 should take up to 20 years to eventually rebalance.
I had never seen a long term gold production chart so this was interesting. The author shows that gold goes through regular 30 yr. cycles in production ranging from 1.2 to 2.9% per year. During the gold bull market of the 1970's gold production fell from 1964 all the way to 1980 (1.8% to 1.25% = -30%). During that same period, M2 was growing at a healthy clip. Obviously, the decreasing gold production was one of the drivers in the gold price. Gold has been following the same trend since 1999 to date (1.9% to 1.4% = -26%) while M2 has been increasing since 1993-1994. These production decelerations have lasted no less than 13 years. The current one is about 10 years long and suggests at least several more years before the production curve flattens out like it did in 1979-80 following its previous 16 year decline.
As the deceleration in production continues towards 1.0-1.2%/yr the price of gold should continue to climb. While many fiat pundits claim that rising gold production can easily thwart rising gold prices by just snapping one's fingers to place more gold mines on line, history shows just the opposite occurs. The production increases following the 1980 peak took years to take hold. And despite the gold price tripling over the past 7 years, mine production is steadily falling, not increasing. Much of this can be attributed to several factors:
-the very long lead times (5-10 yrs) to bring a productive mine into service. Most mines turn out to be non-productive. -the cost of operating mines being dependent on many other factors besides just the gold price (oil, labor, materials, equipment, commodities, currency valuations, derivatives/hedges held, electricity cost and dependability, etc.) -how the new mines were financed (today many are with non-recourse derivative loans that default back to the bankers/backers), -running out of the easier to reach gold -wrestling with the geo-political risks, taxation, and environmental laws that are constantly changing.
The author makes some compelling points. He is also of the belief that the current B up wave in the SM will last years longer before finally succumbing into a C wave drop.
1. Higher taxes 2. 30 yr T-Bond 27 year bull market possibly ending 3. Wage deflation (less jobs, baby boomers working longer, etc) 4. Next wave of foreclosures starting in 3rd qtr. (Option ARMs, etc.) 5. Non-primary RE (vac. homes, ranches, farms, CRE, multi-family) 6. Baby boomer shifts 7. Municipal govt bankruptcies (Vallejo, etc.) 8. The California bubble (as goes Calif....so goes the nation).
things are getting a wee bit better in some areas, but only after cutting 25% salaries, eliminating bonuses, etc.
the housing market freaks me out, i do not think there will be any REAL recovery there for years.
what did the FED do today? i really don't care....i stocked up on some more 'survival' items (not PM) just stuff, someone will need to educate me on the use of a firearm, soon.
The best hedge against deflation used to be cash didn't it? But with the dollar falling I am not sure where to be.
If the dollar is falling (nearly always because of excessive monetary stimulus) that's not deflation, but inflation. If the dollar is falling in price, you want to be in items that are maintaining their price or going higher. That would typically be commodities, real estate, PM's, etc. But don't look for RE to take off anytime soon with the huge oversupply out there plus much more to come. Cash is not the best place to be in a so-called deflation (as we have now) when the amount of stimulous, monetary printing, and cash give-aways are at record levels. Eventually that all has to be evened up with the value of the dollar. Gold does ok during a deflationary environment. It has done it's job to date by holding value while the SM plummeted. Even though commodities have far outperformed gold on a 6-9 month basis only gold is near it's all time high from 2008 (ie it did its job). And that out-performance is more a reflection on how far commodities "over" crashed vs. gold by Nov. 2008.
Yesterday's 3 yr auction went well according to reports. The 10 yr. auction today was about right on target within the average of previous ones. Of course, this is per govt reports. Who knows who actually is ending up with the bonds.
<< <i>"outside" of the stock market things are cr@p
things are getting a wee bit better in some areas, but only after cutting 25% salaries, eliminating bonuses, etc.
the housing market freaks me out, i do not think there will be any REAL recovery there for years.
what did the FED do today? i really don't care....i stocked up on some more 'survival' items (not PM) just stuff, someone will need to educate me on the use of a firearm, soon.
edit for spelling and wine @ 13.5% >>
/
You are startin' early.
As far as firearm education, do what I was taught in the Marines...."Ready, Fire, Aim." Gets 'em every time.
I know the company I work for is doing better since 4,500 of us took at 30%+ cut since February. I noticed our stock has gone from a March low of $34 to $66!
Ha...a tremendous secret that's maybe not so secret. We've known there is a big financial storm brewing for some while now, it's not if but when as folk are growing fond of saying. That article is right on...it's all in how you position yourself and if you're holding paper, then you're going to be left holding paper. The thing that causes me to pause for a little rumination is that the world financial order has two clear choices (among other lesser ones), they have to either take gold, gold balance of trade, IMF gold, central bank gold all out of the equation completely to where gold can not be a basis for financial balances either for use in currency or in trade settlements, and the other choice, to make gold the basis of all commerce. Not much lies in between with the possible exception of the very sensible plan to have a basket of international currencies with a little gold in there and that would beg the question..."Shouldn't we have evolved to a place where we have a single, true international currency?" Well, that international basket would take a lot longer to put together than this impending financial train wreck is going to allow. Hummmm, I'm thinking...cue Mel Gibson here.
There is going to be a day of financial reckoning as that rubber band is already stretched beyond the technical specifications for the rubber band. When that rubber band snaps, it will be fast, so fast that if you aren't already in position, it will be way too late in the game to find any safety, as that article states. Bank holiday...yep, not if but when. The markets must reset to save the governments that have pulled the rubber band a little too far so it's either collapse the govt. through lack of confidence in the money or collapse the money to keep confidence in the govt.
i stocked up on some more 'survival' items (not PM) just stuff
People hoard when there is no stability, and that seems to be a rational thing to do. Right now, we still have stability but people are worried and some are scared.
The best thing we can do now is to get out, speak out, call them on their lies and support the ones who aren't trying to put a straightjacket on the economy. OTOH, the greedy corporate bosses who use cheap labor overseas to manufacture crappy stuff to sell over here instead of at least *trying* to employ US citizens need to be called on the carpet and dumped. I don't really care if you call that "protectionism". Especially when the UN is wanting in our pants. Let them get industrious. They have the template, they choose not to follow it.
At home, there is a balance that needs to be struck, and we aren't even close. We need to stop exporting our technologies and knowhow - other than farming and energy stuff. We need to keep our weapons systems businesses buttoned up - they should not be profit centers.
someone will need to educate me on the use of a firearm, soon.
I'd buy some ammo, and take a couple courses. They are easy to find. Get used to your weapons, man.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
China is finally spending its reserves as fast as it can. I guess the Chinese want out of paper also. So what’s the play here?
Buy the Chinese’s companies, or try to pick the commodity survivors?
Aug. 14 (Bloomberg) -- China, unfazed by failures to invest in Rio Tinto Group and Unocal Corp., will boost spending on oil and mining acquisitions by at least half this year to take advantage of lower valuations after commodity prices slumped.
State-owned Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. yesterday agreed to buy Australia’s Felix Resources Ltd. for about A$3.5 billion ($2.9 billion), a day after Sinochem Corp., China’s biggest chemicals trader, offered to buy Emerald Energy Plc for 532 million pounds ($881 million) to gain oil fields in Syria and Colombia.
China National Petroleum Corp.’s plan to buy Repsol YPF SA’s Argentine unit may push Chinese purchases of overseas commodity assets to $43 billion this year, a 48 percent increase on 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“The Chinese don’t have enough nickel, don’t have enough oil, and they don’t have enough copper,” Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings and the author of books including “Investment Biker” and “Adventure Capitalist”, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “There’s a crisis coming. They are going around the world buying up what they can. They’re preparing for a rainy day.”
Bids for resources by China, whose $2.1 trillion in currency reserves are the world’s largest, have been met with opposition in the U.S. and Australia. Neither concern over its growing influence nor the arrest of four Rio executives in Shanghai have stopped Chinese companies from buying assets abroad as the nation’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) economic stimulus spurs demand.
China is finally spending its reserves as fast as it can. I guess the Chinese want out of paper also.
If the Chinese start spending, doesn't that imply an increase in the velocity of money? If that is the case, doesn't that imply that inflation is set to accelerate?
So what’s the play here? Buy the Chinese’s companies, or try to pick the commodity survivors?
Bid on the same class of assets that (you think) that the Chinese are going to be buying? We might still have an edge in offshore drilling technologies. That might be worth a look.
Obama, Gore & Pelosi might think that green is great, but the winning economies will be powered by oil - it's the most cost effective and versatile power source that exists (for now). China, Russia, India, Venezuela, Saudi - they all know that.
These dems don't quite understand BTUs or much else having to do with science, but they don't mind burning through the jet fuel to get to their next gig, as long as they can "offset" the cost with more taxes or a few hundred million in backroom deals (or White House Lawn deals) with GE.
That's their true idea of a "carbon offset".
Yeah, I'd still invest in petrol.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Just checking in. I am "doing" my sigline. and will be back in a few weeks.
Looks like the fort is being held, although I see Chinese equities are down 15% in the last 2 weeks.
I have a few thoughts on the emerging and established European economies that I will share when I get back. Havent been able to hit any coin shops yet but hopefully in the next week. Maybe get a first hand account on the demand and psychology for gold from the Europeans.
"Obama, Gore & Pelosi might think that green is great, but the winning economies will be powered by oil - it's the most cost effective and versatile power source that exists (for now). China, Russia, India, Venezuela, Saudi - they all know that."
Yes, it's kind of a duh...that the current administration just doesn't realize, like the last administration did, that we are in an international bare knuckles competition for our economic and welfare survival based on oil. The hardly significant pittance of an effort to get green and off of oil is not even worth any consideration...what a grossly overhyped, grossly underfunded con job. We are in a war for our survival and it's about the oil and we are just sitting here watching; cap and trade, yeah, HA, fools...drill baby, drill. What, you think this is some kind of polite game we're playing with the Russians and Chinese? Someone had better pull their capitas outta their buttulus or we're gonna be a hasbeendulas. Don't wanna drill off of Cali...hey, you wanna be eatin' rice instead of mickeyD's...get a clue. Don't wanna work off of the Artic shelf...ok, let the Ruski's that Sarah can see from her balcony go and suck it up real quick...is anyone looking at any of this at all?
It's OK, just a little Sat. A.M. venting. Please return to your regularly scheduled programmingl.
Just checking in. I am "doing" my sigline. and will be back in a few weeks.
Looks like the fort is being held, although I see Chinese equities are down 15% in the last 2 weeks.
I have a few thoughts on the emerging and established European economies that I will share when I get back. Havent been able to hit any coin shops yet but hopefully in the next week. Maybe get a first hand account on the demand and psychology for gold from the Europeans. >>
Comrade Cohodk, looks like a beautiful place, Duszniki. Enjoy! Comrade Renski
This guy had a good grip on where our financial and economic systems were headed back in early 2001 calling out the problems with bank and non-banking credit, derivatives, banks controlling commodities and interest rates with naked shorted paper, etc. In short, it was a perfect scheme to hide inflation throughout the 1990's all the while gutting the system. This was the money supply and credit disconnect. Too bad those who could have done something about it were sleeping or indifferent to it.
WHAT ????????? The mainstream media makes less and less sense these days.
By Ieva M. Augstums, AP Business Writer On Monday August 17, 2009, 8:08 am EDT
Wall Street looked to plunge at the opening of trading Monday as investors around the world feared that consumers are too anxious to help lift the economy into recovery.
The Shanghai stock market fell almost 6 percent and the major indexes in Europe were all down more than 1.5 percent.
I'm so confused...... seems like last week all I was reading and hearing was that the recession was over.
The recession is over.... for Goldman Sachs, JPM, Citi, BoA and all those other entities that have unlimited govt bailout cash pledged behind them (AIG, Fannie, Freddie, GM, etc.). When you can't fail....you can't fail. End of recession.
Hiding your money from the IRS in offshore banks is over. So just use cash!!
From the L. A. Times, 40% of all workers in L. A. County ( L. A. County has 10.2 million people)are working for cash and not paying taxes.
Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- UBS AG, Switzerland’s largest bank, will divulge information on 4,450 accounts to settle a U.S. lawsuit that sought names of American clients suspected of evading taxes.
Switzerland and the U.S. announced the agreement today, resolving a six-month legal tussle that put unprecedented pressure on Swiss banking secrecy. The accord will help the U.S. pursue “tax cheats around the world,” Internal Revenue Service Commissioner Douglas Shulman said on a conference call with reporters.
UBS, the world’s second-biggest manager of money for the rich, admitted in February to participating “in a scheme to defraud the U.S.” and agreed to pay $780 million and disclose the names of more than 250 clients who allegedly hid assets from the IRS. A day later, the IRS sued the Zurich-based bank for information on as many as 52,000 clients.
Yikes, better bail out before it's too late says the GFMS, one of the best shills the gold cartel has. What did they leave out of their report? Central Bank net buying. Over the last year the CB's went from net sellers to net buyers, an 83 ton swing. CB's are not included in the GFMS survey because they have been typically net sellers. So pay them no mind if they start buying 100-200 tons per year. It doesn't count in "true" demand. And to add to their accuracy the GFMS reported a 6% increase in annual mine production which flys against reality and the trends of the past 7 years. No matter, it's the headlines that move that markets, and that's what counts.
They claim 796 jobs were saved or created but 700 were government employees who did not have to be laid off. Those are not jobs created. It is also the government saving the government.
Yeah, like housing foreclosures rising and expected to peak in 2011 yet used home sales are rising quickly, if you listen to the media. What, so someone is buying all the foreclosures...maybe the Chinese or someone. Kind of like the cash for klunkers but the gov didn't pay many of the dealers for the $4500 that they discounted the price...hee hee, it's a joke, don't you get it? Kind of like the 500,000/mo losing their jobs yet the DOW is over 9K and rising and we are on the road to recovery as our GDP continues to decay...huh, how does that work. Kind of like the health reform bill that hasn't even been written yet...just what was the big O trying to pass back in July?
So, just because the equity markets disagree with the data is not a big deal. Relax, everything is OK.
Pressure has been steadily building on the rental market, lowering rent rates. This is even now creating a hardship on those who have bought into the forclosures over the past year and a half. There are subtle worries at this moment that these latest investors may be setting themselves up for the next round of the forclosure exodous.
NumbersUsa, FairUs, Alipac, CapsWeb, and TeamAmericaPac
<< <i>Hiding your money from the IRS in offshore banks is over. So just use cash!!
From the L. A. Times, 40% of all workers in L. A. County ( L. A. County has 10.2 million people)are working for cash and not paying taxes.
Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- UBS AG, Switzerland’s largest bank, will divulge information on 4,450 accounts to settle a U.S. lawsuit that sought names of American clients suspected of evading taxes.
Switzerland and the U.S. announced the agreement today, resolving a six-month legal tussle that put unprecedented pressure on Swiss banking secrecy. The accord will help the U.S. pursue “tax cheats around the world,” Internal Revenue Service Commissioner Douglas Shulman said on a conference call with reporters.
UBS, the world’s second-biggest manager of money for the rich, admitted in February to participating “in a scheme to defraud the U.S.” and agreed to pay $780 million and disclose the names of more than 250 clients who allegedly hid assets from the IRS. A day later, the IRS sued the Zurich-based bank for information on as many as 52,000 clients. >>
Isn't most of the big money in the Cayman Islands now days?
<< <i>"Why Do Equity Markets Disagree with the Data?"
Yeah, like housing foreclosures rising and expected to peak in 2011 yet used home sales are rising quickly, if you listen to the media. What, so someone is buying all the foreclosures...maybe the Chinese or someone. Kind of like the cash for klunkers but the gov didn't pay many of the dealers for the $4500 that they discounted the price...hee hee, it's a joke, don't you get it? Kind of like the 500,000/mo losing their jobs yet the DOW is over 9K and rising and we are on the road to recovery as our GDP continues to decay...huh, how does that work. Kind of like the health reform bill that hasn't even been written yet...just what was the big O trying to pass back in July?
So, just because the equity markets disagree with the data is not a big deal. Relax, everything is OK. >>
/
It may all be orchestrated to lure J6P back in. When will that be? I think when the Dow passes and stays above 10,000 and J6P sees it on CNN, USAToday..... Once Joe-retail is firmly dug in the bad news will actually be spun bad and the cards will fall again. I looked back at 1932, and the Dow rocketed right through the 200dma, came back and followed it for some time. This (fake mini-bull) may not be over this year. There's still some $600-700 billion in (urgently needed) stimilus for next year. Maybe after midterm elections we will see the second half of the "W" starting with the downstroke.
I have to agree with many of these economists...it just doesn't make sense. But then again, Wall Street likes to climb a wall of worry.
Mogambo reports that the Dow Transports Index is worth $3,705.92, which gives a P/E of 4,493 compared to an average P/E of 12 to 14.
Earnings for the Dow Transports this year are $0.82 compared to last year's $170.63. I guess it's time to jump back into the market, eh? No, not really!!!
I would normally have said that I was just kidding, except that it's not even funny.
Yeah, like housing foreclosures rising and expected to peak in 2011 yet used home sales are rising quickly, if you listen to the media. What, so someone is buying all the foreclosures...maybe the Chinese or someone.
As far as I've read when the banks take over a property (ie foreclose) they become the owner and a sale occured. When the bank puts it up for auction and another middleman buys it for resale, another sale occurred. When the middleman dumps it to J6P, yet another sale occured. Same house 3 sales. When J6P loses his job, the chain repeats. It's no secret that the banks have been sitting on foreclosures to keep their net asset ratios in balance. So when those foreclosures come to market is up to the bankers. They can pick a particular month to unload a bunch or wait. Isn't the above similar to the stock broker's flash trading where false volume is created to lure in future buyers? The same thing has basically occured in numismatics in the key date arena. Key dates were flipped back and forth between dealers (and speculating "collectors" ) until eventually finding a retail buyer. The dealers justified the retail price because of what they had to pay to participate in the flash trading. But now you look at inventories and there are lots of key dates sitting around.
Home sale stats are about as accurate in this environment as is the CPI/PPI/jobs lost reports. An interesting note about the CPI yoy comparisons. It's been driven down for a number of months now because of the price of oil and commodities in general falling steadily back in summer/fall 2008. $147 oil in July 2008 to $65-$70 this past July. Huge drop. But what happens when that $147 oil gets replaced by $35 oil in the calculations? $35 to $70....huge increase. Same for copper, aluminum, etc. The financial media have taken great glee in reporting decades low yoy CPI's. So what will these numbers do starting in the later fall when oil and other commodities in 2009 are 2X their 2008 end of year lows? Then once again the pundits can report record yoy changes, but only this time in the + direction.
So what will these numbers do starting in the later fall when oil and other commodities in 2009 are 2X their 2008 end of year lows? Then once again the pundits can report record yoy changes, but only this time in the + direction.
rr, everyone knows that 1-yr yoy calculations are not representative. They will change the calculations to a 2-yr interval.
Then, next year, they will change back to 1-yr yoy. I'd be surprised if they don't declare that the govt can take a "mulligan" if things don't look right.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Comments
Martensen lists the identifying CUSIP number for Thursday's 7 yr bond auction and claims the FED bought back nearly half of the notes from the primary bond dealers within a week, a sly way of monetizing the debt rather than buying it outright. Makes sense considering that the 5 yr auction was weak, and then the 7 yr. auction perked up all of a sudden. While the method may be legit per some of the blogger comments below that article, it does seem at least misleading for the FED/Treasury/media to call the results "strong" when the FED effectively ends up being 50% of the auction.
www.alexa.com
Peter Degraaf mentioned the above website as a means to monitor web site traffic % to help quantity PM market action. In this case he referenced kitco.com to see if current traffic volume was higher or lower than previous times this year to decide if gold was overpriced/overexposed. Another tool to add the arsenal.
roadrunner
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins
So, instead of the big banks showing huge losses in derivatives as they should, Bernake hands them money to not only repair their balance sheets but also to allow them to buy up chunks of Corporate America?
WTF?
Where is the criminal justice system?
I knew it would happen.
The speed of the shell game is accelerating.
This immediate repurchase of newly auction bonds by the Fed tells us that demand for these bonds is not nearly as high as advertised, and that things are not quite as strong as represented.
And oh, by the way, don't expect any stock market weakness while so many billions are being shoveled out the Fed and into the pockets of the primary dealers. They'll have to do something with all that freshly minted cash.....
The stock market rally does seem to have appeared out of nowhere, with no basis in fundamentals, like sales, or profits. D'oh!
That's called inflating the currency, no matter how you slice it. How long before precious metals investors are singled out as "evil speculators"??
I knew it would happen.
It also allowed the big banks and corporations to double their stock prices and then sell off another round of new offerings at inflated prices. Then the insiders can sell off another round of their personal stock portfolios.
roadrunner
It's hard to keep up with their antics - it really is. Most of the public want stocks to keep going up, and psychologically it is very hard to cut the umbilical cord to the government even though it is plain to see what they are doing to you.
Even if the public sees and understands what is going on, the dependency factor helps to keep most people in denial. Even though the debt clock is well publicized, most people act as if it belongs in a different dimension from ours. That's a big mistake.
Numbers don't lie. Politicians do. Reality will hit pretty hard at all the wrong times.
I knew it would happen.
but I am pretty darned mad at the antics of
the big banks that lose billions, get money from
the Government(we the people) and still are
able to pay more billions in bonuses. Perhaps it is
time to break up these too big to fail monsters, send
a number of execs to prison and stop rewarding the
crooks in the financial system. It is not as if the big
banks have ever looked out for us little people.
Camelot
<< <i>I don't know about the rest of you folks... >>
//////////////////\\\\\\\\\\\
We should be a little upset at the least. Goldman-Sachs had over $50 billion in NET income from only 5 years (2003-2007) and then in 2008 things turn bad and they demand $20 billion taxpayer dollars with no strings attached! Two bad quarters and now G-S is back to making $ billions off free money from the Fed.
If I could have $ billions at 0% I'd make a lot too!
Now I don't know about you, but it seems someone is getting fleeced and it feels like me.
Yours Truly,
Ben Dover
as well as a major case of constipation, for what they have done
to all of us. They should all be ashamed to be seen in public.
Camelot
A few things I found interesting in this article. While we all know that the mine production of gold has dropped 10% over the past 8 years despite a tripling of the gold price, it was essetially the same case during the 1970's. Mine production dropped sharply for the first half of the 1970's as the gold price increased several fold. As gold increased 8X from late 1976 to 1980 mine gold production was essentially unchanged. Katz presents various supporting information and charts. He also notes that the price of wheat bottomed out at around 50c/bu during each of the previous major economic contractions (Civil War, 1890's, great depression). However by 1999-2001 the price had fallen even further to 17c/bu on the back of the "new" financial servicing economy. In other words, the overall 45% drive down in commodity prices from 1980-1999 should take up to 20 years to eventually rebalance.
$$$ for Clunkers....no different than breaking windows or bulldozing good homes - by Steve Saville
roadrunner
I had never seen a long term gold production chart so this was interesting. The author shows that gold goes through regular 30 yr. cycles in production ranging from 1.2 to 2.9% per year. During the gold bull market of the 1970's gold production fell from 1964 all the way to 1980 (1.8% to 1.25% = -30%). During that same period, M2 was growing at a healthy clip. Obviously, the decreasing gold production was one of the drivers in the gold price. Gold has been following the same trend since 1999 to date (1.9% to 1.4% = -26%) while M2 has been increasing since 1993-1994. These production decelerations have lasted no less than 13 years. The current one is about 10 years long and suggests at least several more years before the production curve flattens out like it did in 1979-80 following its previous 16 year decline.
As the deceleration in production continues towards 1.0-1.2%/yr the price of gold should continue to climb. While many fiat pundits claim that rising gold production can easily thwart rising gold prices by just snapping one's fingers to place more gold mines on line, history shows just the opposite occurs. The production increases following the 1980 peak took years to take hold. And despite the gold price tripling over the past 7 years, mine production is steadily falling, not increasing. Much of this can be attributed to several factors:
-the very long lead times (5-10 yrs) to bring a productive mine into service. Most mines turn out to be non-productive.
-the cost of operating mines being dependent on many other factors besides just the gold price (oil, labor, materials, equipment, commodities, currency valuations, derivatives/hedges held, electricity cost and dependability, etc.)
-how the new mines were financed (today many are with non-recourse derivative loans that default back to the bankers/backers),
-running out of the easier to reach gold
-wrestling with the geo-political risks, taxation, and environmental laws that are constantly changing.
roadrunner
The author makes some compelling points. He is also of the belief that the current B up wave in the SM will last years longer before finally succumbing into a C wave drop.
1. Higher taxes
2. 30 yr T-Bond 27 year bull market possibly ending
3. Wage deflation (less jobs, baby boomers working longer, etc)
4. Next wave of foreclosures starting in 3rd qtr. (Option ARMs, etc.)
5. Non-primary RE (vac. homes, ranches, farms, CRE, multi-family)
6. Baby boomer shifts
7. Municipal govt bankruptcies (Vallejo, etc.)
8. The California bubble (as goes Calif....so goes the nation).
roadrunner
Regards
Kareem
things are getting a wee bit better in some areas, but only after cutting 25% salaries, eliminating bonuses, etc.
the housing market freaks me out, i do not think there will be any REAL recovery there for years.
what did the FED do today? i really don't care....i stocked up on some more 'survival' items (not PM) just stuff, someone will need to educate me on the use of a firearm, soon.
edit for spelling and wine @ 13.5%
If the dollar is falling (nearly always because of excessive monetary stimulus) that's not deflation, but inflation. If the dollar is falling in price, you want to be in items that are maintaining their price or going higher. That would typically be commodities, real estate, PM's, etc. But don't look for RE to take off anytime soon with the huge oversupply out there plus much more to come. Cash is not the best place to be in a so-called deflation (as we have now) when the amount of stimulous, monetary printing, and cash give-aways are at record levels. Eventually that all has to be evened up with the value of the dollar. Gold does ok during a deflationary environment. It has done it's job to date by holding value while the SM plummeted. Even though commodities have far outperformed gold on a 6-9 month basis only gold is near it's all time high from 2008 (ie it did its job). And that out-performance is more a reflection on how far commodities "over" crashed vs. gold by Nov. 2008.
Yesterday's 3 yr auction went well according to reports. The 10 yr. auction today was about right on target within the average of previous ones. Of course, this is per govt reports. Who knows who actually is ending up with the bonds.
roadrunner
<< <i>"outside" of the stock market things are cr@p
things are getting a wee bit better in some areas, but only after cutting 25% salaries, eliminating bonuses, etc.
the housing market freaks me out, i do not think there will be any REAL recovery there for years.
what did the FED do today? i really don't care....i stocked up on some more 'survival' items (not PM) just stuff, someone will need to educate me on the use of a firearm, soon.
edit for spelling and wine @ 13.5% >>
/
You are startin' early.
As far as firearm education, do what I was taught in the Marines...."Ready, Fire, Aim." Gets 'em every time.
I know the company I work for is doing better since 4,500 of us took at 30%+ cut since February. I noticed our stock has gone from a March low of $34 to $66!
R95
There is going to be a day of financial reckoning as that rubber band is already stretched beyond the technical specifications for the rubber band. When that rubber band snaps, it will be fast, so fast that if you aren't already in position, it will be way too late in the game to find any safety, as that article states. Bank holiday...yep, not if but when. The markets must reset to save the governments that have pulled the rubber band a little too far so it's either collapse the govt. through lack of confidence in the money or collapse the money to keep confidence in the govt.
JMHO
People hoard when there is no stability, and that seems to be a rational thing to do. Right now, we still have stability but people are worried and some are scared.
The best thing we can do now is to get out, speak out, call them on their lies and support the ones who aren't trying to put a straightjacket on the economy. OTOH, the greedy corporate bosses who use cheap labor overseas to manufacture crappy stuff to sell over here instead of at least *trying* to employ US citizens need to be called on the carpet and dumped. I don't really care if you call that "protectionism". Especially when the UN is wanting in our pants. Let them get industrious. They have the template, they choose not to follow it.
At home, there is a balance that needs to be struck, and we aren't even close. We need to stop exporting our technologies and knowhow - other than farming and energy stuff. We need to keep our weapons systems businesses buttoned up - they should not be profit centers.
someone will need to educate me on the use of a firearm, soon.
I'd buy some ammo, and take a couple courses. They are easy to find. Get used to your weapons, man.
I knew it would happen.
China is finally spending its reserves as fast as it can. I guess the Chinese want out of paper also. So what’s the play here?
Buy the Chinese’s companies, or try to pick the commodity survivors?
Aug. 14 (Bloomberg) -- China, unfazed by failures to invest in Rio Tinto Group and Unocal Corp., will boost spending on oil and mining acquisitions by at least half this year to take advantage of lower valuations after commodity prices slumped.
State-owned Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. yesterday agreed to buy Australia’s Felix Resources Ltd. for about A$3.5 billion ($2.9 billion), a day after Sinochem Corp., China’s biggest chemicals trader, offered to buy Emerald Energy Plc for 532 million pounds ($881 million) to gain oil fields in Syria and Colombia.
China National Petroleum Corp.’s plan to buy Repsol YPF SA’s Argentine unit may push Chinese purchases of overseas commodity assets to $43 billion this year, a 48 percent increase on 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“The Chinese don’t have enough nickel, don’t have enough oil, and they don’t have enough copper,” Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings and the author of books including “Investment Biker” and “Adventure Capitalist”, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “There’s a crisis coming. They are going around the world buying up what they can. They’re preparing for a rainy day.”
Bids for resources by China, whose $2.1 trillion in currency reserves are the world’s largest, have been met with opposition in the U.S. and Australia. Neither concern over its growing influence nor the arrest of four Rio executives in Shanghai have stopped Chinese companies from buying assets abroad as the nation’s 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) economic stimulus spurs demand.
If the Chinese start spending, doesn't that imply an increase in the velocity of money? If that is the case, doesn't that imply that inflation is set to accelerate?
So what’s the play here? Buy the Chinese’s companies, or try to pick the commodity survivors?
Bid on the same class of assets that (you think) that the Chinese are going to be buying? We might still have an edge in offshore drilling technologies. That might be worth a look.
Obama, Gore & Pelosi might think that green is great, but the winning economies will be powered by oil - it's the most cost effective and versatile power source that exists (for now). China, Russia, India, Venezuela, Saudi - they all know that.
These dems don't quite understand BTUs or much else having to do with science, but they don't mind burning through the jet fuel to get to their next gig, as long as they can "offset" the cost with more taxes or a few hundred million in backroom deals (or White House Lawn deals) with GE.
That's their true idea of a "carbon offset".
Yeah, I'd still invest in petrol.
I knew it would happen.
Just checking in. I am "doing" my sigline.
Looks like the fort is being held, although I see Chinese equities are down 15% in the last 2 weeks.
I have a few thoughts on the emerging and established European economies that I will share when I get back. Havent been able to hit any coin shops yet but hopefully in the next week. Maybe get a first hand account on the demand and psychology for gold from the Europeans.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Yes, it's kind of a duh...that the current administration just doesn't realize, like the last administration did, that we are in an international bare knuckles competition for our economic and welfare survival based on oil. The hardly significant pittance of an effort to get green and off of oil is not even worth any consideration...what a grossly overhyped, grossly underfunded con job. We are in a war for our survival and it's about the oil and we are just sitting here watching; cap and trade, yeah, HA, fools...drill baby, drill. What, you think this is some kind of polite game we're playing with the Russians and Chinese? Someone had better pull their capitas outta their buttulus or we're gonna be a hasbeendulas. Don't wanna drill off of Cali...hey, you wanna be eatin' rice instead of mickeyD's...get a clue. Don't wanna work off of the Artic shelf...ok, let the Ruski's that Sarah can see from her balcony go and suck it up real quick...is anyone looking at any of this at all?
It's OK, just a little Sat. A.M. venting. Please return to your regularly scheduled programmingl.
<< <i>Hey guys,
Just checking in. I am "doing" my sigline.
Looks like the fort is being held, although I see Chinese equities are down 15% in the last 2 weeks.
I have a few thoughts on the emerging and established European economies that I will share when I get back. Havent been able to hit any coin shops yet but hopefully in the next week. Maybe get a first hand account on the demand and psychology for gold from the Europeans. >>
Comrade Cohodk, looks like a beautiful place, Duszniki. Enjoy!
Comrade Renski
This guy had a good grip on where our financial and economic systems were headed back in early 2001 calling out the problems with bank and non-banking credit, derivatives, banks controlling commodities and interest rates with naked shorted paper, etc. In short, it was a perfect scheme to hide inflation throughout the 1990's all the while gutting the system. This was the money supply and credit disconnect. Too bad those who could have done something about it were sleeping or indifferent to it.
roadrunner
WHAT ?????????
The mainstream media makes less and less sense these days.
By Ieva M. Augstums, AP Business Writer
On Monday August 17, 2009, 8:08 am EDT
Wall Street looked to plunge at the opening of trading Monday as investors around the world feared that consumers are too anxious to help lift the economy into recovery.
The Shanghai stock market fell almost 6 percent and the major indexes in Europe were all down more than 1.5 percent.
.... seems like last week all I was reading and hearing was that the recession was over.
interesting history leading up to the great crash.
http://xroads.virginia.edu/~HYPER/Allen/Contents.html
i am enjoying it quite a bit. gives one perspective on that time frame.
it touches on the FL real estate boom/crash which i thought was great
reading.
The recession is over.... for Goldman Sachs, JPM, Citi, BoA and all those other entities that have unlimited govt bailout cash pledged behind them (AIG, Fannie, Freddie, GM, etc.). When you can't fail....you can't fail. End of recession.
roadrunner
WWFBO
(words of wisdom from a bloomin' onion)
+1
Box of 20
From the L. A. Times, 40% of all workers in L. A. County ( L. A. County has 10.2 million people)are working for cash and not paying taxes.
Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- UBS AG, Switzerland’s largest bank, will divulge information on 4,450 accounts to settle a U.S. lawsuit that sought names of American clients suspected of evading taxes.
Switzerland and the U.S. announced the agreement today, resolving a six-month legal tussle that put unprecedented pressure on Swiss banking secrecy. The accord will help the U.S. pursue “tax cheats around the world,” Internal Revenue Service Commissioner Douglas Shulman said on a conference call with reporters.
UBS, the world’s second-biggest manager of money for the rich, admitted in February to participating “in a scheme to defraud the U.S.” and agreed to pay $780 million and disclose the names of more than 250 clients who allegedly hid assets from the IRS. A day later, the IRS sued the Zurich-based bank for information on as many as 52,000 clients.
Yikes, better bail out before it's too late says the GFMS, one of the best shills the gold cartel has. What did they leave out of their report? Central Bank net buying. Over the last year the CB's went from net sellers to net buyers, an 83 ton swing. CB's are not included in the GFMS survey because they have been typically net sellers. So pay them no mind if they start buying 100-200 tons per year. It doesn't count in "true" demand. And to add to their accuracy the GFMS reported a 6% increase in annual mine production which flys against reality and the trends of the past 7 years. No matter, it's the headlines that move that markets, and that's what counts.
roadrunner
Article
They claim 796 jobs were saved or created but 700 were government employees who did not have to be laid off. Those are not jobs created. It is also the government saving the government.
(x2,Meltdown),cajun,Swampboy,SeaEagleCoins,InYHWHWeTrust, bstat1020,Spooly,timrutnat,oilstates200, vpr, guitarwes,
mariner67, and Mikes coins
Yeah, like housing foreclosures rising and expected to peak in 2011 yet used home sales are rising quickly, if you listen to the media. What, so someone is buying all the foreclosures...maybe the Chinese or someone. Kind of like the cash for klunkers but the gov didn't pay many of the dealers for the $4500 that they discounted the price...hee hee, it's a joke, don't you get it? Kind of like the 500,000/mo losing their jobs yet the DOW is over 9K and rising and we are on the road to recovery as our GDP continues to decay...huh, how does that work. Kind of like the health reform bill that hasn't even been written yet...just what was the big O trying to pass back in July?
So, just because the equity markets disagree with the data is not a big deal. Relax, everything is OK.
Box of 20
Pressure has been steadily building on the rental market, lowering rent rates. This is even now creating a hardship on those who have bought into the forclosures over the past year and a half. There are subtle worries at this moment that these latest investors may be setting themselves up for the next round of the forclosure exodous.
<< <i>Hiding your money from the IRS in offshore banks is over. So just use cash!!
From the L. A. Times, 40% of all workers in L. A. County ( L. A. County has 10.2 million people)are working for cash and not paying taxes.
Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- UBS AG, Switzerland’s largest bank, will divulge information on 4,450 accounts to settle a U.S. lawsuit that sought names of American clients suspected of evading taxes.
Switzerland and the U.S. announced the agreement today, resolving a six-month legal tussle that put unprecedented pressure on Swiss banking secrecy. The accord will help the U.S. pursue “tax cheats around the world,” Internal Revenue Service Commissioner Douglas Shulman said on a conference call with reporters.
UBS, the world’s second-biggest manager of money for the rich, admitted in February to participating “in a scheme to defraud the U.S.” and agreed to pay $780 million and disclose the names of more than 250 clients who allegedly hid assets from the IRS. A day later, the IRS sued the Zurich-based bank for information on as many as 52,000 clients. >>
Isn't most of the big money in the Cayman Islands now days?
<< <i>"Why Do Equity Markets Disagree with the Data?"
Yeah, like housing foreclosures rising and expected to peak in 2011 yet used home sales are rising quickly, if you listen to the media. What, so someone is buying all the foreclosures...maybe the Chinese or someone. Kind of like the cash for klunkers but the gov didn't pay many of the dealers for the $4500 that they discounted the price...hee hee, it's a joke, don't you get it? Kind of like the 500,000/mo losing their jobs yet the DOW is over 9K and rising and we are on the road to recovery as our GDP continues to decay...huh, how does that work. Kind of like the health reform bill that hasn't even been written yet...just what was the big O trying to pass back in July?
So, just because the equity markets disagree with the data is not a big deal. Relax, everything is OK. >>
/
It may all be orchestrated to lure J6P back in. When will that be? I think when the Dow passes and stays above 10,000 and J6P sees it on CNN, USAToday..... Once Joe-retail is firmly dug in the bad news will actually be spun bad and the cards will fall again. I looked back at 1932, and the Dow rocketed right through the 200dma, came back and followed it for some time. This (fake mini-bull) may not be over this year. There's still some $600-700 billion in (urgently needed) stimilus for next year. Maybe after midterm elections we will see the second half of the "W" starting with the downstroke.
I have to agree with many of these economists...it just doesn't make sense. But then again, Wall Street likes to climb a wall of worry.
R95
Earnings for the Dow Transports this year are $0.82 compared to last year's $170.63. I guess it's time to jump back into the market, eh? No, not really!!!
I would normally have said that I was just kidding, except that it's not even funny.
A Truckload of Bad Data
I knew it would happen.
As far as I've read when the banks take over a property (ie foreclose) they become the owner and a sale occured. When the bank puts it up for auction and another middleman buys it for resale, another sale occurred. When the middleman dumps it to J6P, yet another sale occured. Same house 3 sales. When J6P loses his job, the chain repeats. It's no secret that the banks have been sitting on foreclosures to keep their net asset ratios in balance. So when those foreclosures come to market is up to the bankers. They can pick a particular month to unload a bunch or wait. Isn't the above similar to the stock broker's flash trading where false volume is created to lure in future buyers? The same thing has basically occured in numismatics in the key date arena. Key dates were flipped back and forth between dealers (and speculating "collectors" ) until eventually finding a retail buyer. The dealers justified the retail price because of what they had to pay to participate in the flash trading. But now you look at inventories and there are lots of key dates sitting around.
Home sale stats are about as accurate in this environment as is the CPI/PPI/jobs lost reports. An interesting note about the CPI yoy comparisons. It's been driven down for a number of months now because of the price of oil and commodities in general falling steadily back in summer/fall 2008. $147 oil in July 2008 to $65-$70 this past July. Huge drop. But what happens when that $147 oil gets replaced by $35 oil in the calculations? $35 to $70....huge increase. Same for copper, aluminum, etc. The financial media have taken great glee in reporting decades low yoy CPI's. So what will these numbers do starting in the later fall when oil and other commodities in 2009 are 2X their 2008 end of year lows? Then once again the pundits can report record yoy changes, but only this time in the + direction.
roadrunner
rr, everyone knows that 1-yr yoy calculations are not representative. They will change the calculations to a 2-yr interval.
Then, next year, they will change back to 1-yr yoy. I'd be surprised if they don't declare that the govt can take a "mulligan" if things don't look right.
I knew it would happen.