"The Government wants the public back in the stock and bond markets, that way they can keep track of everything you own."
Yes, the gov wants all your money to be on the table, out in the open where it can be kept track of. Although there seems to be little in the media to define this as actual gov policy, it seems that it is what BHO was talking about when he was calling for greater transparency (Hee, hee, you thought it was the gov that was going to be more transparent...). The taxation and penalizing of these assets when you reach for the money is the part about spreading the wealth around. We are just seeing the tip of this iceberg, we have three more years of tweeking the policies. The logical conclusion of this would be for your employeers or your clients to send the money to the gov and the gov would post your post tax earnings into your private bank account every month. That would eliminate the need for the 1040 filing because it would already be taxed and distributed instead of distributed and then taxed. It's all good.
Katz has a simple way of tying things together. Here's a paragraph from the article on valuing goods.
The purpose of a financial market is to value economic goods. The successful speculator is one who correctly values goods; the unsuccessful one fails at this crucial task. All you have to do is to look at history and you can see that the majority of speculators have done very badly at their job. Why did the speculators of the day sell gold for $35 in 1970? Couldn’t they see that gold was one of the few economic goods which had failed to triple in price since 1933? A check with the Bureau of Labor Statistics “Inflation Calculator” shows that a basket of goods whose average price was $1.00 in 1935 had risen to $2.83 in 1970. And yet gold had first been set at $35 in 1935 and was still $35 some 35 years later. Since everything in the country had close to tripled by 1970, then wasn’t that some kind of a clue that gold also should have tripled?
Using similar logic the SM was undervalued in 1982...then rose 18X before peaking. Gold was undervalued in 2002 much the same way it had been in 1970 after being dormant for decades while asset prices around it had been rising all along. Gold is now up 4X since its bottom in 2001-2002 and still less than half of its 1980 inflation adjusted value. Bubble chasing markets of the past 40 years tend to seriously overshoot before settling back. It's no different than a ship that is missing its core ballast and gets pushed easily from side to side in even moderately stormy seas. This is the legacy of all unrestrained fiat currencies. When gold hits the >10X range once again then it will be time to reassess how near the ending is.
<< <i>“I will agree that equities have been marketed as a long term, cant lose proposition, but has not the same been said of real estate and now of gold?”
This is true and back in the day when all investments looked very risky one could just put ones money in the bank, draw a few percent interest, and sleep good at night.
Well this socialist government has ended that option. With the bankers paying 1.5%, inflation running at 3%, and the dollar devaluing, one must do something, right?
The Government wants the public back in the stock and bond markets, that way they can keep track of everything you own.
I got an email from a couple last night I have known for 30 years. This couple is retired. They are the most Christian conservative folks you have ever met. A little to the left politically, one of them voted for Obama.
The email I got said they bought $150,000 worth of gold yesterday and are going to burry it under their house.
How many thousands of folks out there are so afraid of what is happening that they are doing this? >>
GS,
The situation you mention is EXACTLY what occurs when prices peak. When reasonable and intelligent people act irrationally, the trade or investment opportunity is now past.
edited to add---What did you say was their address?
The email I got said they bought $150,000 worth of gold yesterday and are going to burry it under their house.
How many thousands of folks out there are so afraid of what is happening that they are doing this?
Glenn Beck was joking about this a few months ago. He mentioned on the air that he buried his gold in the back yard, and the next morning he found someone digging in his back yard.
Then, as an aside he said, ("I really buried it on the side of the house".)
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i> Gold is now up 4X since its bottom in 2001-2002 and still less than half of its 1980 inflation adjusted value. >>
If you take its average price from around 1980 -- let's say $500 -- then gold is now only a little bit below that, using gov't inflation statistics.
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
I dunno about the "fortune tellers" that go to $5k, $8k and beyond limits. They spin a good tale and I do respect them.
The manipulation that will always go on for better and mostly worse is a reason I hesitate with the POG above JS's call @$1650. A MAJOR reason, to be honest.
JS does say that gold will go on to the higher numbers, yet has he stepped up the ladder to those loftier predictions by modifying his own analysis?...or just handing the baton off?
Yet, I am still in a jet wash as to how this will all play out. I do NOT want to see 5K gold or even 3K gold, too many things in the world will be....effed up or blown up.
A 10X (using approx open market ave gold prices) to 25X (USA fixed gold price to peak) increase in gold in the 1970's occured and nothing in the economy or financial systems were incinerated in the process. That would equate to gold prices of $2500-$6350 today using a low of $255 gold from the 1999-2002 time frame. Gold can seriously overshoot targets like it did in the late 1970's yet it doesn't imply the end of the world unto itself. Beanie Babies at $150-$1,000 per doll didn't indicate the end of the financial system anymore than $10,000 Rhodium or $147 Oil did last year. All the gold in the world only amounts to a tiny percentage of the world's wealth. If it's value increases by 3-5 fold from here it will still be only a tiny fraction of the world's wealth. Gold would still be a barbarous relic if people had full faith and confidence in currencies and governments. Anchor the currencies to something, stick it to it, and gold goes barbarous once again. I'm sure Sinclair's analysis supports these higher numbers in gold and privately he has talked to his readers about it. He took so much flack for predicting $1250 back in 2002 (then increasing it to $1650 a few yrs later) that I think he prefered to stay out of the top-calling business from then on. It's not worth the aggravation and actually works against gold because the person making that absurdly high call is a nutcase. Now 7 years later $1250 is not so nutty. Time for someone else to carry the torch to nuttier levels. EW analyst Alf Fields left the news letter writing business back in November 2008 because he felt his wave predictions would cause "non-traders" to try to trade gold as it broke out beyond $1033. Ultimately those people would get left behind in the dust.
In any period of economic crisis there will always be someone buying $150,000 in gold and "burying" it. When several of your neighbors are doing then that's a signal. A single person's action or even a thousand or 10 thousand don't set a trend. When the majority of people you know volunteer something to say on gold then it will be time to exit or at least reassess the situation. No one I know outside the coin community is buying gold. That is unchanged over the past 7 years. And I no longer bring it up like I tended to do from 2004-2007 because no one wanted to hear about that. It is an annoying subject to the majority of people who are only comfortable talking about stocks and bonds in their IRA's/401K's.
<< <i>In any period of economic crisis there will always be someone buying $150,000 in gold and "burying" it. When several of your neighbors are doing then that's a signal. A single person's action or even a thousand or 10 thousand don't set a trend. When the majority of people you know volunteer something to say on gold then it will be time to exit or at least reassess the situation. No one I know outside the coin community is buying gold. That is unchanged over the past 7 years. And I no longer bring it up like I tended to do from 2004-2007 because no one wanted to hear about that. It is an annoying subject to the majority of people who are only comfortable talking about stocks and bonds in their IRA's/401K's. >>
Can't remember where I heard it, but a guy was speaking at some kind of seminar for investment advisors (or similar), and he polled the crowd with something like, "How many of you know anything about gold?" and I remember the figure was something like 72% of them had NO CLUE about gold. So if this is any kind of indication, we haven't seen anything yet in gold. Because someday these advisors will be pushing gold, and when the figure goes from 72% to 20% and lower, you can be gold will be north of $2000 and you won't be able to touch MS Pre-1933 gold under $3000, I'm guessing.
I know exactly one other person -- not a coin collector -- who has been buying gold the last couple of years. Reading these boards you'd think everyone owns gold, but that's not the case. Quite the opposite. In fact, I know a few people who invest a lot in stocks and their view of gold/PMs is basically ridicule/contempt.
From that small, anecdotal sample, I'd say the number of people who own any kind of bullion PMs is very small.
"Men who had never shown any ability to make or increase fortunes for themselves abounded in brilliant plans for creating and increasing wealth for the country at large." Fiat Money Inflation in France, Andrew Dickson White (1912)
"I'd say the number of people who own any kind of bullion PMs is very small."
Yep, of the two hundred or so people that I work with on a daily basis, none own gold that I am aware of...exepting self. When ever it comes up in conversation, peoples attitudes seem to range from being scared or it, unfamiliar with the concept, completely out of their element in the discussion, or in awe that someone would actually have real physical gold. Occasionally someone will ask what the price is or relay some internet article but not very often. I'd say interest in gold by the general public is close to 0. The public has been conditioned to think only of buying stocks if they want to make an investment so I wouldn't look for much to change and with money tight, I doubt many will own any gold in the near future. Methinks that if it wasn't for this forum, it would be hard for most of us to even have a discussion about gold much less engage in some prognosticatory exercises. Of course you could go to Kitco but they don't know anything about coins so we've got the best of both worlds here.
It seemed to me that the Chinese called the bottom when they bought all that gold for 1170 or so and it would seem that their reputation for sound business judgement would make 1200 a no brainer but here we sit, watching 1125. On the other hand, we were at 950 just a few weeks ago so where's the bad? I anticipate more shake outs before we find the new plateau and then everyone will look around and see who is still holding the hard stuff. It might just suprise us all as to just who is holding PM.
It seems that too many people think locally about gold demand. The demand is mostly in other countries. The Chinese, in addition to buying and buying, are promoting gold ownership to their people. India is also very PM orientated (mostly silver). This is the country where the people are not saving.
I believe many people not in coins/PM's have bought gold for the past year. Source: local B&M's. BIG Texas money has been buying for a year. Rather pretentious to assume we are the only intelligent beings on earth. Our two sons 27 & 24 went out yesterday and bought some nice silver bars. We're doing something right as a parent!!!!
I was talking with a coworker last week about buying & holding pm as a source of wealth protection. I distinctly remember him shotting down the idea of owning any pm and responding "the biggest problem we have right now is the devalueing of the dollar".
I just laughed and shock my head at him. I then asked him if he thought the current administration was going to change their monetary policy anytime soon?
sad part he has an mba.
I have a very strict gun control policy: if there's a gun around, I want to be in control of it - Clint Eastwood
<< <i>Just did a survey here at work.... We own a small company - 6 full and 3 part time employees.
4 of the 6 full time employees have purchased gold and/or silver bullion or coins in the past 2 years. (08-09)
1 of the 3 part timers has done the same. >>
Were any influenced by you? Some of my co-workers have been influenced simply because when it comes up in conversation I'm able to inform them and answer their questions. That, and they wonder why I look at the updated gold price on my blackberry every few minutes...
<< <i>Just did a survey here at work.... We own a small company - 6 full and 3 part time employees.
4 of the 6 full time employees have purchased gold and/or silver bullion or coins in the past 2 years. (08-09)
1 of the 3 part timers has done the same. >>
Were any influenced by you? Some of my co-workers have been influenced simply because when it comes up in conversation I'm able to inform them and answer their questions. That, and they wonder why I look at the updated gold price on my blackberry every few minutes... >>
Yes, 2 of the 5 investors may have been influenced by me. The other 3 purchasers of PM's/coins, no. Of the three purchasers NOT influenced by me, 1 - is a long time collector/investor, 1- is a new investor, and uncertain about the third.
I see that as simple housecleaning - you don't like to do it, but it needs to be done. The reason it passed narrowly is that as soon as they know they have the numbers needed, the rest run for cover. It's very Byzantine.
Edited to add - Debt to European powers is what caused the Byzantines to lose power, BTW
There are the big picture events like dollar devaluation/revaluation and foreign divestment and investment but the speculation through EFT's magnifies their impact.
I still think the threat of the Russian gold sale on 12/7 triggered the current slight burst in the golden bubble. They have since retracted their statement, so now the speculation has to gain its momentum back. this will take a few weeks.
The 30 tons of Russian gold was too small to really have an effect imo. First the Russians said they wanted to buy gold, then they said they wanted to sell some, then they decided to sell some to themselves. Geez, why didn't they think of that option in the first place? I don't think anyone took the whole thing seriously, especially other nations and sophisticated PM investment money. If the Russians really wanted to sell a measly $1 BILL in gold they could have worked out a deal with any number of nations for a price at or above spot in one shot and be done with it. Piece-mealing 30 tons would have taken time and drove their price received down. The talk of "selling" it into the market didn't seem to make sense to me. A better option would have been to keep it ready for a 25% premium when the next major bank got caught short and needed physical bullion to cover deliveries or end up in default.
Gold was pretty much pushed over the edge by Dec 4th and probably got its first scare the week before on the Dubai ruse that had been known about for months. The timing was impeccable though for gold. One can assign causal factors following Dec 4th but gold was already massively overbought. Once tipped, it was basically lights out.
<< <i>Once tipped, it was basically lights out. >>
-----------------------------------------
For December yes. But gold still has a lot of upside left for 2010.
U.S. Federal Gov't spending will not slow down for at least 2 years. When Stimulus Bill I is gone in 3Q10 and we're staring at a major drop in the equity markets next fall, more unfunded, deficit spending will be assured.
I firmly believe gold will hit $1300 in 2010 and $1500 before this run is over 2 years from now.
Whoa, You want to do what? Spend some of that trillion dollars you have? I don't think so!
By ERIC LIPTON Published: December 21, 2009 WASHINGTON — A company controlled by the Chinese government has notified the Obama administration that it is withdrawing its application to buy a Nevada gold mining company to avoid a conflict after federal officials raised “serious, significant and consequential national security” concerns.
The decision by Northwest Nonferrous International Investment Company, at least for now, eliminates a showdown over the tiny company, the Firstgold Corporation. The Treasury Department on Monday was prepared to recommend that President Obama block the deal.
“It is disappointing,” the chief executive of Firstgold, Terry Lynch, said Monday. “It means the whole deal is over. It won’t go to the president, because there is nothing to send to him for approval.”
Officials at the Treasury Department, which oversees the review panel known formally as the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, have not publicly said what the explicit cause of the security concern is, as the process is confidential.
But in meetings with Firstgold executives, the federal officials cited the proximity of the company’s four Nevada properties — most of which operate on leased federal land — to the Fallon Naval Air Station, as well as “other sensitive and classified security and military assets that cannot be identified,” according to a summary of a conference call held last week.
Northwest Nonferrous is a giant Chinese-run mining company, with more than 6,000 employees, that is in the midst of a push to expand its global presence by buying up mines, or investment in mining operations, including in the southwest Yukon section of Canada.
At the urging of Ted Butler the CFTC's oversight group (DM0) investigated the likelihood of silver manipulation in 2008 and found nothing noteworthy including any manipulative positions in silver shorts. Butler wants to know why their May '08 report failed to mention JPM's assumption of the Bear Sterns massive Comex silver short positions. A large enough position such that 2 US banks carried 40% of the Comex short position or 30% of world annual production. The August 2008 Bank Particpation Report clearly shows 1 or 2 major US banks created/assumed a position from somewhere. And since the BSC failure it has been shown that they held massive Comex futures and otc derivative silver short positions. The end of the rope on this is getting shorter.
In checking the data myself it is very odd to see the Silver shorts jump from 6,000 to 33,000 from the July to August reports. This is from the same CFTC that suggests that a 6,000 contract limit is semi-enforced. At 6,000 contracts between 2-3 banks it seemed reasonable. But at 33,000? And why did it take until August for those Bear Stearn shorts to show up on JPM's bank report data? As you recall silver was taken down very hard in late July to early August 2008. At that same time the otc derivatives bet was doubled down also from around $90 BILL to $190 BILL in shorts. Little wonder the price of silver caved. The entire world silver market is only worth about $10 BILL/yr.
Fwiw the gold shorts variation from July to August 2008 on the Bank report went from 8,000 (2-1 LONG to short ratio) to 86,000 (23-1 SHORT to long ratio!). Incredible on what can happen in one month of non-manipulative behavior in gold and silver Comex shorts.
At that same time the otc derivatives bet was doubled down also from around $90 BILL to $190 BILL in shorts. Little wonder the price of silver caved. The entire world silver market is only worth about $10 BILL/yr.
It makes Nelson and Bunker Hunt look like pikers. Funny thing is - it's the very same CFTC!!!! What irony! The big difference is that the Hunts had assets backing up their leveraged positions and they lost most of their assets when CFTC changed the margin requirements after the fact. The 2 big banks are naked shorts, since there are no offsetting positions being recorded. What a scam.
There are no markets, Its all manipulations.
That is exactly right.
Still, I am glad there are the Ted Butlers of the world, fighting the good fight. At some point, the realities of the market will prevail. That's the fact we can't afford to overlook in the midst of all this bs.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
As a sort of QE Christmas present the $200 BILL caps on both Freddie and Fannie were removed on Dec 24th while the financial markets were closed. Unlimited losses are now allowed through 2012. Of course the govt doesn't expect to even exceed the old $200 BILL caps. This latest move is just to boost "confidence" and not some sneaky end-around play like TARP. This seems similar to how the big banks "reluctantly" took TARP money when they didn't really need it. They just took it to reduce the stigma so that others would not feel ostracized by taking it. F&F exceeding the old $200 BILL caps by 2012 would seem now to be one of the surest bests out there. Fannie and Freddie have $1,533 BILL in combined assets.
<< <i>As a sort of QE Christmas present the $200 BILL caps on both Freddie and Fannie were removed on Dec 24th while the financial markets were closed. Unlimited losses are now allowed through 2012. Of course the govt doesn't expect to even exceed the old $200 BILL caps. This latest move is just to boost "confidence" and not some sneaky end-around play like TARP. This seems similar to how the big banks "reluctantly" took TARP money when they didn't really need it. They just took it to reduce the stigma so that others would not feel ostracized by taking it. F&F exceeding the old $200 BILL caps by 2012 would seem now to be one of the surest bests out there. Fannie and Freddie have $1,533 BILL in combined assets.
RR- I think I understand what you are saying, but please clarify the extending of the caps to 2012. Who took the TARP but didn't really need too? Going forward, how would this impact the dollar?
Apparently the $200 BILL caps on each of F & F are no longer there. Hence there is no cap and no limit on how far they could be bailed out in the future at taxpayer expense. It's clear now that the real junk in mortgages will come to light over the next 3 yrs. This is just another way of saying more QE. It will continue to weaken the dollar longer term.
I don't recall exactly which banks initially stepped up to nibble on TARP money just to "show" the others that it was ok to do so even if they really didn't need it....lol. But in that group of first samplers who claimed they didn't need it certainly included some of the big 5 banks (JPM, BoA, Morgan Stanley, Citi, WF). I'm pretty sure JPM lead the way and claimed they were only doing it to minimize the stigma that "others" might feel. Like Goldman Sachs, they were only doing God's work, sort of like teaching the other banks how to fish.
Got it. It appears F&F believe they can walk on water. We still see no effort by the government to stop monitizing the debt. Going forward, I see everything still bullish for precious metals.
I had read part of an article yesterday by NYPost reporter Josh Kosman that discussed the huge position in derivatives held by major banks such as Goldman Sachs. The reporter was using valuations in the billions so I really didn't know what he was talking about. Maybe it was just new additions or something. I cut the article short because the figures were so small that it made no sense to me. But leave it to RK to come through and clean up the reporter's mess. For one, Kosman was using $ BILLIONS when he should have been using $ TRILLIONS. It's easy to lose track of 3 zeroes when numbers get this big. So now GS's "$49 BILL" position made some sense at $49 TRILL. At least the author had the ratio right about the assets backing those derivatives since the error of 1,000 was canceled out. And in his mind the derivatives to assets ratio was too large. It is.
For a while now I have been listing the total derivatives positions of the banks at $203 TRILL. That is technically incorrect. Maybe that was OCC's last quarter's figure or it didn't include the contribution of the bank holding companies. In any case the total figure is $293 TRILLION with nearly all of that held by the top 5 banks. BoA is closing in on JPM for king of the hill ($75 TRILL vs. $79 TRILL).
According to the author of this article, HR 4173, financial legislation reform bill (1279 pages) gives authorization to spend up to $4 TRILL during the next financial meltdown event. The only stipulation is the FED/Treasury must be 99% sure that the money used can be paid back with interest. I'm not sure if there is a time limit on the payback.....3012 anyone? The author wonders if there model will be any more accurate than the one that failed to predict the first meltdown.
The uncapping of the Fannie & Freddie now frees them up to become the final resting place for all sorts of bad mortgages and debt...and with no final accounting. JW suggests that the FED's $1 TRILL in agency debt will eventually end up there and at the full price paid. The beauty of F&F is that it is basically that it is unauditable. Best that all the bad loans end up here than on other bank/fund balance sheets where their losses won't be recognized. Currently official figures claim F&F have only taken on $111 BILL in losses. JW expects something on the order of several TRILLION. The recent lifting of F&F caps now allows the log jam of bank foreclosures and mortgage debt/securities that have been purposely held up to begin to be processed since there is now a convenient dump to send them to....F&F.
Sooooooooo, I'm thinking that if the cost of the auto and bank bail outs, the fannie/freddie deficits, and the health care plan lilabilities were tied to the legislators pay checks that voted for it then things would probably be different. Sooooooooo, I'm figuring that if there is a group of people that want this stuff then maybe they should be willing to spend their personal money on it, not mine. Hummmmmmmmmmmmm Not such a radical thought for example, I got hit with an "Imputed income" tax on my pay check this month...Imputed income...imputed income...did I get the money, did it come to me and go in my bank account...wtf is imputed income...did anyone else have to pay imputed income? This is only going to get worse. Imputed income tax...is that like value added tax or an energy recovery tax, or...awwwmaaaannnnnnnn.
Imputed income? Sounds just like the "imputed" rent modification tossed into the CPI index in 1983. That's when home ownership costs were replaced by a fictitious number assuming every homeowner became a landlord by renting to themself. Considering that home ownership costs outpaced rents for the next 24 yrs it was a stroke of statistical genius. This helped keep the CPI low during the last 2 housing booms and helped mask the significant asset inflation that was occuring since housing makes up >40% of the CPI.
Just after allowing gold imports after an 18 month ban the govt of Vietnam has now decided to halt "gold trading floors" by March 2010. Their currency (dong) is not doing well vs. gold. The reason given for the change has to do with opaque/inefficient markets where speculation and paper gold run rampant....in other words traders and bankers are making money while no one else is. Seems to me that those same terms aptly describe the US markets. Could we expect a similar fate for Comex gold down the road? According to Sinclair, Vietnam's move is only to halt gold derivatives trading and not the cash-bullion market. However, he doesn't expect such a thing to happen to the heavily papered-up western gold markets. Based on this person's experience (kitco forums) it seems the US banks do just the opposite thing via heavily leveraged paper bets against gold/silver to help bolster the currency:
The absolute LAST thing the Vietnam government needs is gold speculators placing highly leveraged, one way bets against the Dong depressing confidence in the currency even further. People from other ASEAN countries are already fantacizing about their heads in a noose. If anyone doesn't believe gold is money or that it can't be used as money, I urge you to come to Southeast Asia and think again. Vietnam simply can not afford a paper gold trading system without significant systematic controls in place to limit its impact on the Dong.
“Japan is the mega risk problem; it’s the next big thing that will hit the credit markets,” said Weinberg, who previously worked at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and taught at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. Most investors and ratings firms also missed debacles such as the emerging-market crises of the 1990s and the collapse of the U.S. mortgage-securities market, he said.
Investors can bet on a deterioration in Japan’s credit quality through credit default swaps. The contracts insure against losses on sovereign bonds during the next five years. The cost of protecting $10 million climbed to $66,000 on Dec. 29 from $37,000 in August, when the Democratic Party of Japan won power, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News. The cost was $3,625 three years ago.
More than a fifth of Japanese are over 65, according to the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. The nation’s population began shrinking in 2006 from 127.8 million, and will drop by 3.2 percent in the coming decade, the Tokyo-based, state-sponsored institute estimates.
A 27- year-old steel trader at China Minmetals, a state-owned commodities company, Li lives with his parents in a cramped 700- square-foot apartment------HMMMMM, state owned? Does that mean manipulated?
a typical 1,000-square-foot apartment costs about 80 times the average annual income of the city’s residents.--------LOL, at least it was only about 10-20X in parts of the US.
How did this bubble get going? Low interest rates, official encouragement of bank lending, and then Beijing’s half-trillion- dollar stimulus plan all made funds readily available.------stupid is as stupid does?
“No one talks about their factories making money these days.” ----maybe cuz they're not?
Verrrry interrrrrresting, Cohodk. Just a couple of weeks ago, the news was that the Japanese markets had turned the corner and the factories are cooking and it was going to be all good over there. Maybe they are suffering the from the same malady that we are over here with the front guys yelling rah rah into the tv cameras while the guys in the back room are grabbing as much money as they can and running for the exits or else looking for a bail out. This is going to be a very interesting year, hold on.
America, if measured by the lofty ideals of its birth, is a failed experiment. The US Constitution is but another reminder that written words are no protection against future transgressions, that the lessons of one generation cannot be passed on to the next and that the desire to dominate others is alive and well even in freedom’s birthplace.
...
America’s founding fathers warned of the dangers the young republic would face. Thomas Jefferson, perhaps the greatest of America’s forbearers, saw those dangers clearly—the greatest being banks and standing armies.
...
Two hundred years after Jefferson’s prescient warnings, America has both the word’s largest banking establishment and the world’s costliest standing army. It would be America itself, not its perceived enemies, who would betray the lofty ideals of the American Revolution.
As a consequence, the US is now broke and indebted beyond its ability to repay. These circumstances did not come about by accident; and although the consequences are clear, the cause is not; as those who profited by America’s fall do not want the truth known—but, until it is, the tragic decline of America will continue…and accelerate.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
The author suggests that deflation of debt (ie money) in our current system is acting the same as price inflation would in a gold-backed monetary system. The basic premise is that as the govt continues to pick up a larger percentage of the total debt-money, the private sector's share shrinks (along with GDP) and loses purchasing power (it's share of the debt pie shrinks). The govt's inefficiency in handling the debt-money fritters large amounts away. In the end it comes down to negative real interest rates whether you see the current environment as inflationary or deflationary. A different read on this continuing debate.
I thought the above article was interesting. The 5 wave structure for the entire 20th century made sense. By the time I got the gist of it stating that the USDollar is heading into the peak of a minor C leg that will take it to 105 within a year or two sort of caught my attention. I didn't quite understand the accompanying indicators showing any direction or divergences but they looked very "official." So I get towards the end and this has got me scared as gold will get plastered. Then I saw the by-line of the author....a pure Elliot Waver Technician, the same guys who have called gold and many other markets dead wrong for most of the past 10 years. It's an interesting view but it ignores any fundamentals of the US dollar. Just another way to make 5 waves fit in the 20th century ignoring the fact that fiat currencies head to zero over time....usually within 100 years. Our 100 yrs really started back in Dec. 1913.
Comments
Yes, the gov wants all your money to be on the table, out in the open where it can be kept track of. Although there seems to be little in the media to define this as actual gov policy, it seems that it is what BHO was talking about when he was calling for greater transparency (Hee, hee, you thought it was the gov that was going to be more transparent...). The taxation and penalizing of these assets when you reach for the money is the part about spreading the wealth around. We are just seeing the tip of this iceberg, we have three more years of tweeking the policies. The logical conclusion of this would be for your employeers or your clients to send the money to the gov and the gov would post your post tax earnings into your private bank account every month. That would eliminate the need for the 1040 filing because it would already be taxed and distributed instead of distributed and then taxed. It's all good.
Katz has a simple way of tying things together. Here's a paragraph from the article on valuing goods.
The purpose of a financial market is to value economic goods. The successful speculator is one who correctly values goods; the unsuccessful one fails at this crucial task. All you have to do is to look at history and you can see that the majority of speculators have done very badly at their job. Why did the speculators of the day sell gold for $35 in 1970? Couldn’t they see that gold was one of the few economic goods which had failed to triple in price since 1933? A check with the Bureau of Labor Statistics “Inflation Calculator” shows that a basket of goods whose average price was $1.00 in 1935 had risen to $2.83 in 1970. And yet gold had first been set at $35 in 1935 and was still $35 some 35 years later. Since everything in the country had close to tripled by 1970, then wasn’t that some kind of a clue that gold also should have tripled?
Using similar logic the SM was undervalued in 1982...then rose 18X before peaking. Gold was undervalued in 2002 much the same way it had been in 1970 after being dormant for decades while asset prices around it had been rising all along. Gold is now up 4X since its bottom in 2001-2002 and still less than half of its 1980 inflation adjusted value. Bubble chasing markets of the past 40 years tend to seriously overshoot before settling back. It's no different than a ship that is missing its core ballast and gets pushed easily from side to side in even moderately stormy seas. This is the legacy of all unrestrained fiat currencies. When gold hits the >10X range once again then it will be time to reassess how near the ending is.
roadrunner
<< <i>“I will agree that equities have been marketed as a long term, cant lose proposition, but has not the same been said of real estate and now of gold?”
This is true and back in the day when all investments looked very risky one could just put ones money in the bank, draw a few percent interest, and sleep good at night.
Well this socialist government has ended that option. With the bankers paying 1.5%, inflation running at 3%, and the dollar devaluing, one must do something, right?
The Government wants the public back in the stock and bond markets, that way they can keep track of everything you own.
I got an email from a couple last night I have known for 30 years. This couple is retired. They are the most Christian conservative folks you have ever met. A little to the left politically, one of them voted for Obama.
The email I got said they bought $150,000 worth of gold yesterday and are going to burry it under their house.
How many thousands of folks out there are so afraid of what is happening that they are doing this? >>
GS,
The situation you mention is EXACTLY what occurs when prices peak. When reasonable and intelligent people act irrationally, the trade or investment opportunity is now past.
edited to add---What did you say was their address?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
How many thousands of folks out there are so afraid of what is happening that they are doing this?
Glenn Beck was joking about this a few months ago. He mentioned on the air that he buried his gold in the back yard, and the next morning he found someone digging in his back yard.
Then, as an aside he said, ("I really buried it on the side of the house".)
I knew it would happen.
<< <i> Gold is now up 4X since its bottom in 2001-2002 and still less than half of its 1980 inflation adjusted value. >>
If you take its average price from around 1980 -- let's say $500 -- then gold is now only a little bit below that, using gov't inflation statistics.
Once banks pick up lending, some say that liquidity will act like a match to gasoline, igniting inflation.
<<<LINK>>>
I have a very strict gun control policy: if there's a gun around, I want to be in control of it - Clint Eastwood
I dunno about the "fortune tellers" that go to $5k, $8k and beyond limits. They spin a good tale and I do respect them.
The manipulation that will always go on for better and mostly worse is a reason I hesitate with the POG above JS's call @$1650. A MAJOR reason, to be honest.
JS does say that gold will go on to the higher numbers, yet has he stepped up the ladder to those loftier predictions by modifying his own analysis?...or just handing the baton off?
Yet, I am still in a jet wash as to how this will all play out. I do NOT want to see 5K gold or even 3K gold, too many things in the world will be....effed up or blown up.
In any period of economic crisis there will always be someone buying $150,000 in gold and "burying" it. When several of your neighbors are doing then that's a signal. A single person's action or even a thousand or 10 thousand don't set a trend. When the majority of people you know volunteer something to say on gold then it will be time to exit or at least reassess the situation. No one I know outside the coin community is buying gold. That is unchanged over the past 7 years. And I no longer bring it up like I tended to do from 2004-2007 because no one wanted to hear about that. It is an annoying subject to the majority of people who are only comfortable talking about stocks and bonds in their IRA's/401K's.
roadrunner
I think everyone would agree with that quote.
Best Buy, the nation's largest electronics chain by sales, is feeling the pinch of gadget deflation.
See, deflation aint all that bad.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>In any period of economic crisis there will always be someone buying $150,000 in gold and "burying" it. When several of your neighbors are doing then that's a signal. A single person's action or even a thousand or 10 thousand don't set a trend. When the majority of people you know volunteer something to say on gold then it will be time to exit or at least reassess the situation. No one I know outside the coin community is buying gold. That is unchanged over the past 7 years. And I no longer bring it up like I tended to do from 2004-2007 because no one wanted to hear about that. It is an annoying subject to the majority of people who are only comfortable talking about stocks and bonds in their IRA's/401K's. >>
Can't remember where I heard it, but a guy was speaking at some kind of seminar for investment advisors (or similar), and he polled the crowd with something like, "How many of you know anything about gold?" and I remember the figure was something like 72% of them had NO CLUE about gold. So if this is any kind of indication, we haven't seen anything yet in gold. Because someday these advisors will be pushing gold, and when the figure goes from 72% to 20% and lower, you can be gold will be north of $2000 and you won't be able to touch MS Pre-1933 gold under $3000, I'm guessing.
<< <i>...gold will be north of $2000 and you won't be able to touch MS Pre-1933 gold under $3000... >>
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I hope you're right.
In fact, I know you are right!
The question is: when will this happen and how long will it hold that level.
From that small, anecdotal sample, I'd say the number of people who own any kind of bullion PMs is very small.
Yep, of the two hundred or so people that I work with on a daily basis, none own gold that I am aware of...exepting self. When ever it comes up in conversation, peoples attitudes seem to range from being scared or it, unfamiliar with the concept, completely out of their element in the discussion, or in awe that someone would actually have real physical gold. Occasionally someone will ask what the price is or relay some internet article but not very often. I'd say interest in gold by the general public is close to 0. The public has been conditioned to think only of buying stocks if they want to make an investment so I wouldn't look for much to change and with money tight, I doubt many will own any gold in the near future. Methinks that if it wasn't for this forum, it would be hard for most of us to even have a discussion about gold much less engage in some prognosticatory exercises. Of course you could go to Kitco but they don't know anything about coins so we've got the best of both worlds here.
It seemed to me that the Chinese called the bottom when they bought all that gold for 1170 or so and it would seem that their reputation for sound business judgement would make 1200 a no brainer but here we sit, watching 1125. On the other hand, we were at 950 just a few weeks ago so where's the bad? I anticipate more shake outs before we find the new plateau and then everyone will look around and see who is still holding the hard stuff. It might just suprise us all as to just who is holding PM.
I just laughed and shock my head at him. I then asked him if he thought the current administration was going to change their monetary policy anytime soon?
sad part he has an mba.
I have a very strict gun control policy: if there's a gun around, I want to be in control of it - Clint Eastwood
But, what do we do if gold goes E. or W.?
Camelot
Please out the school.
"the biggest problem we have right now is the devalueing of the dollar".
I am stunned. Just plain stunned.
I knew it would happen.
4 of the 6 full time employees have purchased gold and/or silver bullion or coins in the past 2 years. (08-09)
1 of the 3 part timers has done the same.
<< <i>Just did a survey here at work.... We own a small company - 6 full and 3 part time employees.
4 of the 6 full time employees have purchased gold and/or silver bullion or coins in the past 2 years. (08-09)
1 of the 3 part timers has done the same. >>
Were any influenced by you? Some of my co-workers have been influenced simply because when it comes up in conversation I'm able to inform them and answer their questions. That, and they wonder why I look at the updated gold price on my blackberry every few minutes...
<< <i>
<< <i>Just did a survey here at work.... We own a small company - 6 full and 3 part time employees.
4 of the 6 full time employees have purchased gold and/or silver bullion or coins in the past 2 years. (08-09)
1 of the 3 part timers has done the same. >>
Were any influenced by you? Some of my co-workers have been influenced simply because when it comes up in conversation I'm able to inform them and answer their questions. That, and they wonder why I look at the updated gold price on my blackberry every few minutes... >>
Yes, 2 of the 5 investors may have been influenced by me. The other 3 purchasers of PM's/coins, no. Of the three purchasers NOT influenced by me, 1 - is a long time collector/investor, 1- is a new investor, and uncertain about the third.
Stop the insanity. I guess after you pass the point of no return it doesn't matter how much money you print.
Box of 20
I see that as simple housecleaning - you don't like to do it, but it needs to be done. The reason it passed narrowly is that as soon as they know they have the numbers needed, the rest run for cover. It's very Byzantine.
Edited to add - Debt to European powers is what caused the Byzantines to lose power, BTW
But, what do we do if gold goes E. or W.?
Scared $$ goes south........
And this is the most likely scenerio, IMNSHO
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
for stating a bearish look on POG
don't confuse this with the prognosticated inflation gig, although there will be an affect worldwide
I still think the threat of the Russian gold sale on 12/7 triggered the current slight burst in the golden bubble. They have since retracted their statement, so now the speculation has to gain its momentum back. this will take a few weeks.
Gold was pretty much pushed over the edge by Dec 4th and probably got its first scare the week before on the Dubai ruse that had been known about for months. The timing was impeccable though for gold. One can assign causal factors following Dec 4th but gold was already massively overbought. Once tipped, it was basically lights out.
roadrunner
<< <i>Once tipped, it was basically lights out. >>
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For December yes. But gold still has a lot of upside left for 2010.
U.S. Federal Gov't spending will not slow down for at least 2 years. When Stimulus Bill I is gone in 3Q10 and we're staring at a major drop in the equity markets next fall, more unfunded, deficit spending will be assured.
I firmly believe gold will hit $1300 in 2010 and $1500 before this run is over 2 years from now.
You want to do what? Spend some of that trillion dollars you have? I don't think so!
By ERIC LIPTON
Published: December 21, 2009
WASHINGTON — A company controlled by the Chinese government has notified the Obama administration that it is withdrawing its application to buy a Nevada gold mining company to avoid a conflict after federal officials raised “serious, significant and consequential national security” concerns.
The decision by Northwest Nonferrous International Investment Company, at least for now, eliminates a showdown over the tiny company, the Firstgold Corporation. The Treasury Department on Monday was prepared to recommend that President Obama block the deal.
“It is disappointing,” the chief executive of Firstgold, Terry Lynch, said Monday. “It means the whole deal is over. It won’t go to the president, because there is nothing to send to him for approval.”
Officials at the Treasury Department, which oversees the review panel known formally as the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, have not publicly said what the explicit cause of the security concern is, as the process is confidential.
But in meetings with Firstgold executives, the federal officials cited the proximity of the company’s four Nevada properties — most of which operate on leased federal land — to the Fallon Naval Air Station, as well as “other sensitive and classified security and military assets that cannot be identified,” according to a summary of a conference call held last week.
Northwest Nonferrous is a giant Chinese-run mining company, with more than 6,000 employees, that is in the midst of a push to expand its global presence by buying up mines, or investment in mining operations, including in the southwest Yukon section of Canada.
At the urging of Ted Butler the CFTC's oversight group (DM0) investigated the likelihood of silver manipulation in 2008 and found nothing noteworthy including any manipulative positions in silver shorts. Butler wants to know why their May '08 report failed to mention JPM's assumption of the Bear Sterns massive Comex silver short positions. A large enough position such that 2 US banks carried 40% of the Comex short position or 30% of world annual production. The August 2008 Bank Particpation Report clearly shows 1 or 2 major US banks created/assumed a position from somewhere. And since the BSC failure it has been shown that they held massive Comex futures and otc derivative silver short positions. The end of the rope on this is getting shorter.
In checking the data myself it is very odd to see the Silver shorts jump from 6,000 to 33,000 from the July to August reports. This is from the same CFTC that suggests that a 6,000 contract limit is semi-enforced. At 6,000 contracts between 2-3 banks it seemed reasonable. But at 33,000? And why did it take until August for those Bear Stearn shorts to show up on JPM's bank report data? As you recall silver was taken down very hard in late July to early August 2008. At that same time the otc derivatives bet was doubled down also from around $90 BILL to $190 BILL in shorts. Little wonder the price of silver caved. The entire world silver market is only worth about $10 BILL/yr.
Fwiw the gold shorts variation from July to August 2008 on the Bank report went from 8,000 (2-1 LONG to short ratio) to 86,000 (23-1 SHORT to long ratio!). Incredible on what can happen in one month of non-manipulative behavior in gold and silver Comex shorts.
roadrunner
I admire his persistance, I just hope he doesnt blow his gasket over it.
There are no markets, Its all manipulations.
It makes Nelson and Bunker Hunt look like pikers. Funny thing is - it's the very same CFTC!!!! What irony! The big difference is that the Hunts had assets backing up their leveraged positions and they lost most of their assets when CFTC changed the margin requirements after the fact. The 2 big banks are naked shorts, since there are no offsetting positions being recorded. What a scam.
There are no markets, Its all manipulations.
That is exactly right.
Still, I am glad there are the Ted Butlers of the world, fighting the good fight. At some point, the realities of the market will prevail. That's the fact we can't afford to overlook in the midst of all this bs.
I knew it would happen.
Fannie and Freddie caps removed
roadrunner
<< <i>As a sort of QE Christmas present the $200 BILL caps on both Freddie and Fannie were removed on Dec 24th while the financial markets were closed. Unlimited losses are now allowed through 2012. Of course the govt doesn't expect to even exceed the old $200 BILL caps. This latest move is just to boost "confidence" and not some sneaky end-around play like TARP. This seems similar to how the big banks "reluctantly" took TARP money when they didn't really need it. They just took it to reduce the stigma so that others would not feel ostracized by taking it. F&F exceeding the old $200 BILL caps by 2012 would seem now to be one of the surest bests out there. Fannie and Freddie have $1,533 BILL in combined assets.
Fannie and k I ub=Freddie caps removed
roadrunner >>
RR- I think I understand what you are saying, but please clarify the extending of the caps to 2012. Who took the TARP but didn't really need too? Going forward, how would this impact the dollar?
I don't recall exactly which banks initially stepped up to nibble on TARP money just to "show" the others that it was ok to do so even if they really didn't need it....lol. But in that group of first samplers who claimed they didn't need it certainly included some of the big 5 banks (JPM, BoA, Morgan Stanley, Citi, WF). I'm pretty sure JPM lead the way and claimed they were only doing it to minimize the stigma that "others" might feel. Like Goldman Sachs, they were only doing God's work, sort of like teaching the other banks how to fish.
roadrunner
For a while now I have been listing the total derivatives positions of the banks at $203 TRILL. That is technically incorrect. Maybe that was OCC's last quarter's figure or it didn't include the contribution of the bank holding companies. In any case the total figure is $293 TRILLION with nearly all of that held by the top 5 banks. BoA is closing in on JPM for king of the hill ($75 TRILL vs. $79 TRILL).
Rob Kirby on bank otc derivatives
According to the author of this article, HR 4173, financial legislation reform bill (1279 pages) gives authorization to spend up to $4 TRILL during the next financial meltdown event. The only stipulation is the FED/Treasury must be 99% sure that the money used can be paid back with interest. I'm not sure if there is a time limit on the payback.....3012 anyone? The author wonders if there model will be any more accurate than the one that failed to predict the first meltdown.
HR 4173 review
The uncapping of the Fannie & Freddie now frees them up to become the final resting place for all sorts of bad mortgages and debt...and with no final accounting. JW suggests that the FED's $1 TRILL in agency debt will eventually end up there and at the full price paid. The beauty of F&F is that it is basically that it is unauditable. Best that all the bad loans end up here than on other bank/fund balance sheets where their losses won't be recognized. Currently official figures claim F&F have only taken on $111 BILL in losses. JW expects something on the order of several TRILLION. The recent lifting of F&F caps now allows the log jam of bank foreclosures and mortgage debt/securities that have been purposely held up to begin to be processed since there is now a convenient dump to send them to....F&F.
Jim Willie discusses Fannie & Freddie as the new garbage dump for bad mortgages
roadrunner
Just after allowing gold imports after an 18 month ban the govt of Vietnam has now decided to halt "gold trading floors" by March 2010. Their currency (dong) is not doing well vs. gold. The reason given for the change has to do with opaque/inefficient markets where speculation and paper gold run rampant....in other words traders and bankers are making money while no one else is. Seems to me that those same terms aptly describe the US markets. Could we expect a similar fate for Comex gold down the road? According to Sinclair, Vietnam's move is only to halt gold derivatives trading and not the cash-bullion market. However, he doesn't expect such a thing to happen to the heavily papered-up western gold markets. Based on this person's experience (kitco forums) it seems the US banks do just the opposite thing via heavily leveraged paper bets against gold/silver to help bolster the currency:
The absolute LAST thing the Vietnam government needs is gold speculators placing highly leveraged, one way bets against the Dong depressing confidence in the currency even further. People from other ASEAN countries are already fantacizing about their heads in a noose. If anyone doesn't believe gold is money or that it can't be used as money, I urge you to come to Southeast Asia and think again. Vietnam simply can not afford a paper gold trading system without significant systematic controls in place to limit its impact on the Dong.
Vietnam to shutdown gold trading exchanges
roadrunner
“Japan is the mega risk problem; it’s the next big thing that will hit the credit markets,” said Weinberg, who previously worked at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and taught at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. Most investors and ratings firms also missed debacles such as the emerging-market crises of the 1990s and the collapse of the U.S. mortgage-securities market, he said.
Investors can bet on a deterioration in Japan’s credit quality through credit default swaps. The contracts insure against losses on sovereign bonds during the next five years. The cost of protecting $10 million climbed to $66,000 on Dec. 29 from $37,000 in August, when the Democratic Party of Japan won power, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News. The cost was $3,625 three years ago.
More than a fifth of Japanese are over 65, according to the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. The nation’s population began shrinking in 2006 from 127.8 million, and will drop by 3.2 percent in the coming decade, the Tokyo-based, state-sponsored institute estimates.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
A 27- year-old steel trader at China Minmetals, a state-owned commodities company, Li lives with his parents in a cramped 700- square-foot apartment------HMMMMM, state owned? Does that mean manipulated?
a typical 1,000-square-foot apartment costs about 80 times the average annual income of the city’s residents.--------LOL, at least it was only about 10-20X in parts of the US.
How did this bubble get going? Low interest rates, official encouragement of bank lending, and then Beijing’s half-trillion- dollar stimulus plan all made funds readily available.------stupid is as stupid does?
“No one talks about their factories making money these days.” ----maybe cuz they're not?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Verrrry interrrrrresting, Cohodk. Just a couple of weeks ago, the news was that the Japanese markets had turned the corner and the factories are cooking and it was going to be all good over there. Maybe they are suffering the from the same malady that we are over here with the front guys yelling rah rah into the tv cameras while the guys in the back room are grabbing as much money as they can and running for the exits or else looking for a bail out. This is going to be a very interesting year, hold on.
America, if measured by the lofty ideals of its birth, is a failed experiment. The US Constitution is but another reminder that written words are no protection against future transgressions, that the lessons of one generation cannot be passed on to the next and that the desire to dominate others is alive and well even in freedom’s birthplace.
...
America’s founding fathers warned of the dangers the young republic would face. Thomas Jefferson, perhaps the greatest of America’s forbearers, saw those dangers clearly—the greatest being banks and standing armies.
...
Two hundred years after Jefferson’s prescient warnings, America has both the word’s largest banking establishment and the world’s costliest standing army. It would be America itself, not its perceived enemies, who would betray the lofty ideals of the American Revolution.
As a consequence, the US is now broke and indebted beyond its ability to repay. These circumstances did not come about by accident; and although the consequences are clear, the cause is not; as those who profited by America’s fall do not want the truth known—but, until it is, the tragic decline of America will continue…and accelerate.
Dream on, America, dream on. But if you want to survive, you’d better wake up—and soon.
Sadly, he is right on the money.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
By Patrick J. Buchanan
A Decade of Self-Delusion
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
The author suggests that deflation of debt (ie money) in our current system is acting the same as price inflation would in a gold-backed monetary system. The basic premise is that as the govt continues to pick up a larger percentage of the total debt-money, the private sector's share shrinks (along with GDP) and loses purchasing power (it's share of the debt pie shrinks). The govt's inefficiency in handling the debt-money fritters large amounts away. In the end it comes down to negative real interest rates whether you see the current environment as inflationary or deflationary. A different read on this continuing debate.
USDollar chart in the 20th century
I thought the above article was interesting. The 5 wave structure for the entire 20th century made sense. By the time I got the gist of it stating that the USDollar is heading into the peak of a minor C leg that will take it to 105 within a year or two sort of caught my attention. I didn't quite understand the accompanying indicators showing any direction or divergences but they looked very "official." So I get towards the end and this has got me scared as gold will get plastered. Then I saw the by-line of the author....a pure Elliot Waver Technician, the same guys who have called gold and many other markets dead wrong for most of the past 10 years. It's an interesting view but it ignores any fundamentals of the US dollar. Just another way to make 5 waves fit in the 20th century ignoring the fact that fiat currencies head to zero over time....usually within 100 years. Our 100 yrs really started back in Dec. 1913.
roadrunner